As an aside, I think if Boris Johnson had gone for the "time limited backstop" idea from the start, I think it would probably have passed the Houses of Parliament. It would have been enough of May's deal for all those who backed it to continue to do so. And it would have been enough to bring the ERG into line.
But again would likely have been rejected by the EU. For very sensible reasons.
You are becoming a tadge WA with no backstop is the answer HYUFD-ish.
There is another counterparty to the negotiations.
Sure, but I think so long as the NAI has the final say, the EU would go for a time limited backstop.
Why?
Because they (probably correctly) think the NAI would never actually vote for Northern Ireland to leave the backstop.
Stormont is not likely to sit for the next 5 years.
I assume that as the NI being in the backstop would be the status quo, NI would have to actively vote to leave the backstop rather than vote to renew it. Thus if Stormont doesn't sit then NI remains in the backstop.
It certainly should be possible to write it legally that way.
If we go into a recession, and house prices fall, and unemployment goes to 1.5 million, then people won't say "Ha! It was much better than those Remainers said - there was no shortage of medicines, it wasn't a meltdown, it was merely a nasty recession."
On the contrary, people who lose their jobs or their homes will blame Brexit - irrespective of whether the real culprit was Donald Trump's trade war with China, Britain's overextended consumer or No Deal Brexit.
[Jorane Sutt talking to Hober Mallow, Foundation, Asimov 1951]
"This is a Seldon crisis we're facing, Sutt, and Seldon crises are not solved by individuals but by historic forces. Trade without priests! Trade alone! Korell is now at war with us. Consequently our trade with her has stopped. What do you suppose will happen when one gadget after another goes out of commission?
"The small household appliances go first. After a half a year of this stalemate that you abhor, a woman's knife won't work any more. Her stove begins failing. Her washer doesn't do a good job. The temperature-humidity control in her house dies. What happens?"
He paused for an answer, and Sutt said calmly, "Nothing. People endure a good deal in war."
"But it's very hard to bear up under little things when the patriotic uplift of imminent danger is not present. It's going to be a stalemate. There will be no casualties, no bombardments, no battles. There will just be a knife that won't cut, and a stove that won't cook, and a house that freezes in the winter. It will be annoying, and people will grumble."
"When two years of the stalemate have gone, the machines in the factories will begin to fail. Those industries will find themselves very suddenly ruined."
"The factories ran well enough before you came there, Mallow." said Sutt.
"Yes, Sutt, so they did - at about one-twentieth the profits...With the industrialist and financier and the average man all against him, how long will [you] hold out?"
"And there isn't a factory, not a trading center, not a shipping line that isn't under my control; that I couldn't squeeze to nothing if [you] attempts revolutionary propaganda. Where [your] propaganda succeeds, or even looks as though it might succeed, I will make certain that prosperity dies. Where it fails, prosperity will continue, because my factories will remain fully staffed. The game will be played out to its end."
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Says who?
The numbers, no PM even if they did extend would last beyond October 31st without losing a VONC
The anti-Boris majority in Parliament are unlikely to allow an election until it looks impossible for Boris to win it.
They will have no choice, given they will VONC Boris by the end of October and cannot agree on an alternative PM there will be a general election 14 days after that VONC passes
If we go into a recession, and house prices fall, and unemployment goes to 1.5 million, then people won't say "Ha! It was much better than those Remainers said - there was no shortage of medicines, it wasn't a meltdown, it was merely a nasty recession."
On the contrary, people who lose their jobs or their homes will blame Brexit - irrespective of whether the real culprit was Donald Trump's trade war with China, Britain's overextended consumer or No Deal Brexit.
The nation is divided into two groups: one who expects no consequences (or even positive ones) from No Deal; while the other expects armageddon.
While I am aware of the dangers of the Middle Ground Fallacy, I think the truth is that British exports will face higher tariffs, both with the EU and with other countries the UK has FTAs (via the EU) with. Some industries will be hit quite hard by this. There are also consequences, such as dropping out the EU's rules on double taxation and withholding taxes, that will negatively impact investment in the UK. None of these things are country destroyers, but cumulatively, they will weigh on the UK economy. And this at a time when the consumer is extended almost to 2007 levels, and Britain as a nation is significantly more in hock to the rest of the world than at any time in the post 1950 period.
A global recession is pretty much baked in it would seem regardless of the Brexit outcome.
As long as any recession in the UK is of less severity than the EU as a whole, or even when compared with France/Germany, then remainers will struggle to gain traction with their argument. What are they going to say?
Probably the same lines the Conservatives used against Labour: national policy caused this crisis and you should have been more careful. Now you get out of the way and we'll clean up your mess. It'll be partially true and partially false, but, hey, thems the breaks.
As an aside, the UK's offer is not a bad one. It has:
- customs checks away from the border - a four year time limit
I think it may be amended to give the Northern Ireland assembly more power. (So, they could in theory remove themselves earlier, but can equally ask for for an extension.)
It may still be unacceptable to some headbangers. It will probably be unacceptable to Remainers. Labour Leavers will still probably oppose it because it's a Tory Brexit.
It’s not a serious offer. It creates a hard border. It therefore actually makes it much easier for the Irish and the EU to reject. For some reason Johnson wants a No Deal and as much inconvenience for UK-based businesses as possible. I genuinely don’t know what benefit for the UK he sees in that.
Boris wants Brexit as 17 million voted for and his proposal is entirely in line with the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit solution to have got a majority in the Commons
Johnson wants No Deal. What I don’t get is how he thinks that benefits the UK.
No he wants the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, if the EU refuse to agree that it is they who want No Deal
OK. So we blame the EU for No Deal. Then what? UK citizens and businesses will be less free, the government will have less control. What’s the plan to deal with this?
We will have more control, able to decide our own trade and immigration policy and more voters now back No Deal over further extension (though if Boris got a Tory majority he would likely go for a NI only backstop)
No Deal means no FTA with the EU or the US. That’s well over 50% of our export markets. As a matter of objective fact it also leaves British citizens and businesses less free than they are now, while the government will be dependent on the goodwill of others in all sorts of areas we currently take totally for granted. While I can see this might help Tory FC win an election, I still don’t get how it benefits the UK. It’s pretty clear you don’t either!!
No Dealers believe that once we leave the EU, the pieces will into place. They will still go on believing that BMW and Prosecco will break down the doors in Brussels. In reality, as far as a deal with the EU, this time a FTA, will still start with the 39bn EUR or its equivalent at that time and , guess what, Ireland - N Ireland and Customs Union. It may seem like a broken gramophone record but it will still be playing.
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Says who?
The numbers, no PM even if they did extend would last beyond October 31st without losing a VONC
The anti-Boris majority in Parliament are unlikely to allow an election until it looks impossible for Boris to win it.
They will have no choice, given they will VONC Boris by the end of October and cannot agree on an alternative PM there will be a general election 14 days after that VONC passes
You think the 5 CHUKs and many of the 21 ex-Tories will be voting for an early P45 ? I don't think so. JCWBPM.
Good post. And by the way, the whole "ha! you've gone too far and you'll look silly if you don't stop" is just the evolution of "stop talking Britain down". They just want not to hear it. In truth Brexists are afraid that the predictions are right. Brexists are mostly on the economic right, and they know there is a lot of sound economics behind the dangers and they can't take the cognitive dissonance of hearing it. Brexit has driven them mad.
I would contend that it is remainers who are terrified that their predictions are wrong.
They know that unless the prophecies of doom materialize then the prospects for the public supporting rejoining the EU are very poor indeed.
Remainers are actually focused on remaining. There's a clue in the name.
They will have no choice, given they will VONC Boris by the end of October and cannot agree on an alternative PM there will be a general election 14 days after that VONC passes
They'll VONC Boris when they want to VONC Boris, I'd have thought they'd want to get at least a rough idea of what to do next before they pull the trigger.
The latest line from Fox radio is to ask why the urgency to impeach Trump when people can vote him out next year anyway. Which suggests a degree of defensive weakness to me.
Meanwhile the sun has just slipped below below the treeclad mountains of North Carolina, the temperature is still above 25C and I am sitting in the city square of Asheville - an island of liberalism in a very Republican state - listening to the soulfull buskers and finishing my fish supper while the dog sleeps under the table after polishing off the bison stew from the dog menu on top of his normal dinner. Brexit feels a long way away.
That's not the Overton window, though. The Overton window is about "the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse, also known as the window of discourse"
What Boris is doing is using the traditional negotiating technique of demonstrating he is not afraid of a no deal outcome. Which is not the Overton window.
I think that's a rather simplistic method of describing it. And I think the former is part and parcel of the latter.
When May was PM the idea of a time-limited backstop was referred too as too radical, as a time-limited backstop was 'no backstop at all' while anything else was dismissed as an unthinkable idea or "unicorn". May kept trying to tweak the edges and never even went as far as demanding a time-limited backstop.
Boris took over and bounded straight in, a time-limited backstop is too close to the existing proposal, we need a complete overhaul. Spitting out extreme idea, saying 'OK if you insist we need customs posts where should they be' etc
As such a time-limited backstop, were it to be agreed, would be looked at by the overwhelming majority now I suspect as a sensible compromise and not a radical idea. Indeed should that be agreed it wouldn't surprise me now if remainers who months ago would have dismissed that as too radical because it was no real backstop would now instead claimed victory that the UK had conceded to agree to the backstop, even if its on a time-limited basis. The window has moved making a deal like that acceptable.
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
Because it said it was
No it didn't. It referred only to "two people familiar with the matter".
That's not the Overton window, though. The Overton window is about "the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse, also known as the window of discourse"
What Boris is doing is using the traditional negotiating technique of demonstrating he is not afraid of a no deal outcome. Which is not the Overton window.
I think that's a rather simplistic method of describing it. And I think the former is part and parcel of the latter.
When May was PM the idea of a time-limited backstop was referred too as too radical, as a time-limited backstop was 'no backstop at all' while anything else was dismissed as an unthinkable idea or "unicorn". May kept trying to tweak the edges and never even went as far as demanding a time-limited backstop.
Boris took over and bounded straight in, a time-limited backstop is too close to the existing proposal, we need a complete overhaul. Spitting out extreme idea, saying 'OK if you insist we need customs posts where should they be' etc
As such a time-limited backstop, were it to be agreed, would be looked at by the overwhelming majority now I suspect as a sensible compromise and not a radical idea. Indeed should that be agreed it wouldn't surprise me now if remainers who months ago would have dismissed that as too radical because it was no real backstop would now instead claimed victory that the UK had conceded to agree to the backstop, even if its on a time-limited basis. The window has moved making a deal like that acceptable.
I was using Mr Overton's own words!
A better recent example of shifting the Overton window was the Lib Dems adopting a revoke policy.
He'll find some red benches to drape himself on, and all thought of Lords reforms will be brushed casually aside, as though it is a fly or a homeless man.
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
Because it said it was
No it didn't. It referred only to "two people familiar with the matter".
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
Because it said it was
No it didn't. It referred only to "two people familiar with the matter".
Ah no sorry it was the tweet that led to finding of the Bloomberg story by mr Meeks which said a source in the negotiation who was not a UK source (paraphrased)
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Says who?
The numbers, no PM even if they did extend would last beyond October 31st without losing a VONC
The anti-Boris majority in Parliament are unlikely to allow an election until it looks impossible for Boris to win it.
They will have no choice, given they will VONC Boris by the end of October and cannot agree on an alternative PM there will be a general election 14 days after that VONC passes
You think the 5 CHUKs and many of the 21 ex-Tories will be voting for an early P45 ? I don't think so. JCWBPM.
JCWNBPM Swinson, CUK and the 21 ex Tories will veto him
As an aside, the UK's offer is not a bad one. It has:
- customs checks away from the border - a four year time limit
I think it may be amended to give the Northern Ireland assembly more power. (So, they could in theory remove themselves earlier, but can equally ask for for an extension.)
It may still be unacceptable to some headbangers. It will probably be unacceptable to Remainers. Labour Leavers will still probably oppose it because it's a Tory Brexit.
It’s not a serious offer. It creates a hard border. It therefore actually makes it much easier for the Irish and the EU to reject. For some reason Johnson wants a No Deal and as much inconvenience for UK-based businesses as possible. I genuinely don’t know what benefit for the UK he sees in that.
Boris wants Brexit as 17 million voted for and his proposal is entirely in line with the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit solution to have got a majority in the Commons
Johnson wants No Deal. What I don’t get is how he thinks that benefits the UK.
No he wants the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, if the EU refuse to agree that it is they who want No Deal
OK. So we blame the EU for No Deal. Then what? UK citizens and businesses will be less free, the government will have less control. What’s the plan to deal with this?
No Deal means no FTA with the EU or the US. That’s well over 50% of our export markets. As a matter of objective fact it also leaves British citizens and don’t either!!
As I said if the Tories win an election with a majority Boris will go for a NI only backstop rather than No Deal anyway
By then it'll be too late: we'll have left with No Deal.
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Do you agree with me that an election in December or January is very unlikely?
As I said the election will be in November, activists from all 3 main parties I know already have election materials etc ready to go then
As an aside, the UK's offer is not a bad one. It has:
- customs checks away from the border - a four year time limit
I think it may be amended to give the Northern Ireland assembly more power. (So, they could in theory remove themselves earlier, but can equally ask for for an extension.)
It may still be unacceptable to some headbangers. It will probably be unacceptable to Remainers. Labour Leavers will still probably oppose it because it's a Tory Brexit.
It’s not a serious offer. It creates a hard border. It therefore actually makes it much easier for the Irish and the EU to reject. For some reason Johnson wants a No Deal and as much inconvenience for UK-based businesses as possible. I genuinely don’t know what benefit for the UK he sees in that.
Boris wants Brexit as 17 million voted for and his proposal is entirely in line with the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit solution to have got a majority in the Commons
Why didn't you vote for Leave in 2016? There must have been a reason.
As an aside, the UK's offer is not a bad one. It has:
- customs checks away from the border - a four year time limit
I think it may be amended to give the Northern Ireland assembly more power. (So, they could in theory remove themselves earlier, but can equally ask for for an extension.)
It may still be unacceptable to some headbangers. It will probably be unacceptable to Remainers. Labour Leavers will still probably oppose it because it's a Tory Brexit.
It’s not a serious offer. It creates a hard border. It therefore actually makes it much easier for the Irish and the EU to reject. For some reason Johnson wants a No Deal and as much inconvenience for UK-based businesses as possible. I genuinely don’t know what benefit for the UK he sees in that.
Boris wants Brexit as 17 million voted for and his proposal is entirely in line with the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit solution to have got a majority in the Commons
Johnson wants No Deal. What I don’t get is how he thinks that benefits the UK.
No he wants the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, if the EU refuse to agree that it is they who want No Deal
OK. So we blame the EU for No Deal. Then what? UK citizens and businesses will be less free, the government will have less control. What’s the plan to deal with this?
No Deal means no FTA with the EU or the US. That’s well over 50% of our export markets. As a matter of objective fact it also leaves British citizens and don’t either!!
As I said if the Tories win an election with a majority Boris will go for a NI only backstop rather than No Deal anyway
By then it'll be too late: we'll have left with No Deal.
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Do you agree with me that an election in December or January is very unlikely?
As I said the election will be in November, activists from all 3 main parties I know already have election materials etc ready to go then
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
Because it said it was
No it didn't. It referred only to "two people familiar with the matter".
Ah no sorry it was the tweet that led to finding of the Bloomberg story by mr Meeks which said a source in the negotiation who was not a UK source (paraphrased)
I think you're confusing it with this tweet which was about an earlier story that David Frost floated the idea.
As I said the election will be in November, activists from all 3 main parties I know already have election materials etc ready to go then
That may be mere prudence. Since no party alone can stop an election, it makes sense to be ready. That doesn't mean there's enough support for one now or in the next three weeks. Nor am I saying you're wrong, it's just not open and shut from the preparations.
As an aside, the UK's offer is not a bad one. It has:
- customs checks away from the border - a four year time limit
I think it may be amended to give the Northern Ireland assembly more power. (So, they could in theory remove themselves earlier, but can equally ask for for an extension.)
It may still be unacceptable to some headbangers. It will probably be unacceptable to Remainers. Labour Leavers will still probably oppose it because it's a Tory Brexit.
It’s not a serious offer. It creates a hard border. It therefore actually makes it much easier for the Irish and the EU to reject. For some reason Johnson wants a No Deal and as much inconvenience for UK-based businesses as possible. I genuinely don’t know what benefit for the UK he sees in that.
Boris wants Brexit as 17 million voted for and his proposal is entirely in line with the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit solution to have got a majority in the Commons
Johnson wants No Deal. What I don’t get is how he thinks that benefits the UK.
No he wants the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, if the EU refuse to agree that it is they who want No Deal
OK. So we blame the EU for No Deal. Then what? UK citizens and businesses will be less free, the government will have less control. What’s the plan to deal with this?
No Deal means no FTA with the EU or the US. That’s well over 50% of our export markets. As a matter of objective fact it also leaves British citizens and don’t either!!
As I said if the Tories win an election with a majority Boris will go for a NI only backstop rather than No Deal anyway
By then it'll be too late: we'll have left with No Deal.
We won't as the extension is until the end of January, an election will be in November
Do you agree with me that an election in December or January is very unlikely?
As I said the election will be in November, activists from all 3 main parties I know already have election materials etc ready to go then
The sheer hilarity of the outrage over what is known of the UK offer is illuminating. Why do you imagine Bloomberg were briefed about time limited backstops being discussed by Europe? And then tonight it transpires it's part if the UK offer, the time is halfway between the UK and EU start points and the EU were briefed yesterday so knew this before leaking the Bloomberg story today. Clearly theres a feeling something can be sorted. And its making the cancel Brexit types nervous
Why do you assume the Bloomberg story was sourced from the EU?
Because it said it was
No it didn't. It referred only to "two people familiar with the matter".
Ah no sorry it was the tweet that led to finding of the Bloomberg story by mr Meeks which said a source in the negotiation who was not a UK source (paraphrased)
I think you're confusing it with this tweet which was about an earlier story that David Frost floated the idea.
Reading the Guardian version of the Boris offer focusing on how the proposal has the support of the DUP. To my eye it seems too complex, reliant on institutions that are suspended and has large bits that are likely to minimise Labour MPs support.
Reading the Guardian version of the Boris offer focusing on how the proposal has the support of the DUP. To my eye it seems too complex, reliant on institutions that are suspended and has large bits that are likely to minimise Labour MPs support.
One thought that seems likely if the deal is passed but Stormont don't get their act together is that the government will probably legislate for Northern Ireland to have a referendum on what they want to do.
Seem to remember there was a lot of talk about that in the Summer.
Conservative Party of Canada Leader Andrew Scheer overtakes Liberal PM Justin Trudeau for the first time as best PM with Nanos by a narrow 28.9% to 28.3% margin.
Overall the Conservatives lead the Liberals 35% to 32% ahead of the Canadian general election later this month
The latest line from Fox radio is to ask why the urgency to impeach Trump when people can vote him out next year anyway. Which suggests a degree of defensive weakness to me.
Meanwhile the sun has just slipped below below the treeclad mountains of North Carolina, the temperature is still above 25C and I am sitting in the city square of Asheville - an island of liberalism in a very Republican state - listening to the soulfull buskers and finishing my fish supper while the dog sleeps under the table after polishing off the bison stew from the dog menu on top of his normal dinner. Brexit feels a long way away.
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
JRM's going nowhere. He'll be in Parliament for the next 10-20 years and will probably become the next Speaker but one... And bring back the tights and wig as well!
That's not the Overton window, though. The Overton window is about "the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse, also known as the window of discourse"
What Boris is doing is using the traditional negotiating technique of demonstrating he is not afraid of a no deal outcome. Which is not the Overton window.
I think that's a rather simplistic method of describing it. And I think the former is part and parcel of the latter.
When May was PM the idea of a time-limited backstop was referred too as too radical, as a time-limited backstop was 'no backstop at all' while anything else was dismissed as an unthinkable idea or "unicorn". May kept trying to tweak the edges and never even went as far as demanding a time-limited backstop.
Boris took over and bounded straight in, a time-limited backstop is too close to the existing proposal, we need a complete overhaul. Spitting out extreme idea, saying 'OK if you insist we need customs posts where should they be' etc
As such a time-limited backstop, were it to be agreed, would be looked at by the overwhelming majority now I suspect as a sensible compromise and not a radical idea. Indeed should that be agreed it wouldn't surprise me now if remainers who months ago would have dismissed that as too radical because it was no real backstop would now instead claimed victory that the UK had conceded to agree to the backstop, even if its on a time-limited basis. The window has moved making a deal like that acceptable.
"If there is an election, what are the parties’ chances? What strategies might they pursue to maximize their support?
We used data on voting in the last general election in June 2017 and 350 polls conducted since then to determine how many seats British parties would probably win. Our prediction is a “hung Parliament” with no clear majority. The Conservatives win the most seats (323 of 650). Among the opposition parties, Labour gets 223 seats, the Liberal Democrats 32, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), 48. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is shut out."
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
But it is a Remain seat and I believe the LDs won the council seats recently.
Fpt: now I'm not in the office I have taken thirty seconds out of my day to look up what wolfbagging is and now I don't think I want to live on this planet any more.
Fpt: now I'm not in the office I have taken thirty seconds out of my day to look up what wolfbagging is and now I don't think I want to live on this planet any more.
Urgh! Why did I just look that up? And who on earth thought it up to begin with?
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
But it is a Remain seat and I believe the LDs won the council seats recently.
I doubt that means much at all. In 2010 - despite Cleggmania - Labour was within 5,000 of the Tories - and would probably have won the seat in 2005 had the boundaries thenexisted.
I see what the ERG are getting. With a truncated Transition and the Transition extension mechanism *removed* they get a Hard Brexit on 1/1/21 and the ability to dominate the airwaves for 15 months poisioning the FTA talks to ensure that they do.
But where does that leave the Kinnocks and the Nandys ? Being asked to vote for Hard Brexit in 15 months time.
I see what the DUP are getting. They are getting at least a notional degree of soveriegnty passed down to Stormont and at least a notional limit to the backstop.
But where does that leave Union purists ? The structure seperates NI from GB and potentially permently. And supporters of Remain and/or the Backstop ? Two borders for 4 years then an unknown. It will chill investment and leaves them negotiating directly with the DUP not London or Brussels.
And where does this leave Dublin ? Avoiding its worst nightmare for now but giving up its moment of maximum leverage.
I understand the engineering of the Boris plan. I don't understand where it generates equilibrium.
Conservative Party of Canada Leader Andrew Scheer overtakes Liberal PM Justin Trudeau for the first time as best PM with Nanos by a narrow 28.9% to 28.3% margin.
Overall the Conservatives lead the Liberals 35% to 32% ahead of the Canadian general election later this month
I can see another Malthouse Compromise vote coming. Boris puts this proposal to the Commons before EUCO. The ERG, loyalists, the DUP and those of the 21 who want to come back plus a few Indies and Labour rebels vote for it. Whether it passes by 10 or loses by 10 Boris wins. He either looks like he can get a deal ( of course the Commons will have passed a press release ) and then the EU has to trash it. Or if he is 10 short he can ratchet up the pressure on rebels. " I need 5 MPs to change their mind to get Brexit done. "
Of course it will be no more sucessful than the Malthouse Compromise but he'll have burned another week.
"If there is an election, what are the parties’ chances? What strategies might they pursue to maximize their support?
We used data on voting in the last general election in June 2017 and 350 polls conducted since then to determine how many seats British parties would probably win. Our prediction is a “hung Parliament” with no clear majority. The Conservatives win the most seats (323 of 650). Among the opposition parties, Labour gets 223 seats, the Liberal Democrats 32, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), 48. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is shut out."
That article says that if LibDem and Labour supporters tactically vote for each other, then the LDs see their seat tally go to... wait for it... wait for it...
30
If LD and Labour supporters tactically vote, the LD seat tally drops.
"If there is an election, what are the parties’ chances? What strategies might they pursue to maximize their support?
We used data on voting in the last general election in June 2017 and 350 polls conducted since then to determine how many seats British parties would probably win. Our prediction is a “hung Parliament” with no clear majority. The Conservatives win the most seats (323 of 650). Among the opposition parties, Labour gets 223 seats, the Liberal Democrats 32, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), 48. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is shut out."
That article says that if LibDem and Labour supporters tactically vote for each other, then the LDs see their seat tally go to... wait for it... wait for it...
30
If LD and Labour supporters tactically vote, the LD seat tally drops.
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
But it is a Remain seat and I believe the LDs won the council seats recently.
No, North East Somerset was estimated to be a leave seat (51.6%) The council area (Bath and North East Somerset) was remain (57.9%), driven by Bath which was overwhelmingly remain (68%).
"If there is an election, what are the parties’ chances? What strategies might they pursue to maximize their support?
We used data on voting in the last general election in June 2017 and 350 polls conducted since then to determine how many seats British parties would probably win. Our prediction is a “hung Parliament” with no clear majority. The Conservatives win the most seats (323 of 650). Among the opposition parties, Labour gets 223 seats, the Liberal Democrats 32, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), 48. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is shut out."
That article says that if LibDem and Labour supporters tactically vote for each other, then the LDs see their seat tally go to... wait for it... wait for it...
30
If LD and Labour supporters tactically vote, the LD seat tally drops.
According to the Washington Post.
Not the best analysis.
To clarify: I meant the Washington Post's analysis wasn't the best, not rcs1000. I realise now that it might have looked that way from the way I replied.
Er...that is a quote from Milton's "Paradise Lost" Book 2
He's quoting...Satan. Literally.
Pause
How pissed is he?????
("...Satan exalted sat, by merit raised To that bad eminence; and, from despair Thus high uplifted beyond hope, aspires Beyond thus high, insatiate to pursue Vain war with Heaven; and, by success untaught, His proud imaginations thus displayed:-- "Powers and Dominions, Deities of Heaven!-- For, since no deep within her gulf can hold Immortal vigour, though oppressed and fallen, I give not Heaven for lost: from this descent Celestial Virtues rising will appear More glorious and more dread than from no fall, And trust themselves to fear no second fate!..", see http://famouspoetsandpoems.com/poets/john_milton/poems/15450.html )
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
It’s a classic example where the LibDems have a small chance of winning and Labour has (next to) no chance, but can muddy the water on the back of its second place to keep the Tory in office.
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was... a classic example where the LibDems have a small chance of winning and Labour has (next to) no chance, but can muddy the water on the back of its second place to keep the Tory in office.
Rees-Mogg's seat is a classic example of why assuming there's any such thing as a "national swing" is utter folly.
The Unitary Authority of Bath + NE Somerset (of which RM's seat is half) now has 37 of its 59 seats occupied by LDs, after the Tories were wiped out this May, The LDs won the Euro election there too, knocking the Tories into fourth place only narrowly ahead of Labour.
The wipe-out has two main reasons. First public disgust at the Tories' local authority cuts, Brexit policy and growing loutishness and totalitarianism is peculiarly marked in the belt from Cambridge to Bristol that Tories (and political commentators) still delude themselves is full of safe Tory seats.
Second, and rarely mentioned: differential demographics. Crudely: the active, affluent and public spirited elderly who used to provide Tory activists are now mostly LD, Green or non-Marxist Labour. Most elderly Tories are now too unfit to campaign or too selfish to spend time on anything but themselves.
There simply aren't enough Tory activists left in core rural England to run campaigns. And the 2017 experiment in using social media and CCHQ-directed mailouts instead is why the Tories lost the election.
Add to that Rees-Mogg's status as the epitome of why natural Tories left the party and the madman's imminent ejection is probably one of the safer bets for the next election.
The result in Rees-Mogg's seat last time was Con 53.6%, Lab 34.7%, LD 8.3%. If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
It’s a classic example where the LibDems have a small chance of winning and Labour has (next to) no chance, but can muddy the water on the back of its second place to keep the Tory in office.
Correct. But the Lib Dems are doing the same to Labour in hundreds of seats. In some of them , the LDs start with less than 10% of the votes.
Conservative Party of Canada Leader Andrew Scheer overtakes Liberal PM Justin Trudeau for the first time as best PM with Nanos by a narrow 28.9% to 28.3% margin.
Overall the Conservatives lead the Liberals 35% to 32% ahead of the Canadian general election later this month
I see what the ERG are getting. With a truncated Transition and the Transition extension mechanism *removed* they get a Hard Brexit on 1/1/21 and the ability to dominate the airwaves for 15 months poisioning the FTA talks to ensure that they do.
But where does that leave the Kinnocks and the Nandys ? Being asked to vote for Hard Brexit in 15 months time.
I see what the DUP are getting. They are getting at least a notional degree of soveriegnty passed down to Stormont and at least a notional limit to the backstop.
But where does that leave Union purists ? The structure seperates NI from GB and potentially permently. And supporters of Remain and/or the Backstop ? Two borders for 4 years then an unknown. It will chill investment and leaves them negotiating directly with the DUP not London or Brussels.
And where does this leave Dublin ? Avoiding its worst nightmare for now but giving up its moment of maximum leverage.
I understand the engineering of the Boris plan. I don't understand where it generates equilibrium.
Boris and his extremist backers are not looking for compromise. They believe, like Trump in win-lose outcomes, where the winner well and truly rogers his opponent. They do not understand the benefits of win-win.
Er...that is a quote from Milton's "Paradise Lost" Book 2
He's quoting...Satan. Literally.
Pause
How pissed is he?????
("...Satan exalted sat, by merit raised To that bad eminence; and, from despair Thus high uplifted beyond hope, aspires Beyond thus high, insatiate to pursue Vain war with Heaven; and, by success untaught, His proud imaginations thus displayed:-- "Powers and Dominions, Deities of Heaven!-- For, since no deep within her gulf can hold Immortal vigour, though oppressed and fallen, I give not Heaven for lost: from this descent Celestial Virtues rising will appear More glorious and more dread than from no fall, And trust themselves to fear no second fate!..", see http://famouspoetsandpoems.com/poets/john_milton/poems/15450.html )
Well, they say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. In the case of Brexiteers it includes fascists, racists, Vladimir Putin and Trump. Apparently, and perhaps unsurprisingly, it now includes Satan.
Comments
It certainly should be possible to write it legally that way.
"This is a Seldon crisis we're facing, Sutt, and Seldon crises are not solved by individuals but by historic forces. Trade without priests! Trade alone! Korell is now at war with us. Consequently our trade with her has stopped. What do you suppose will happen when one gadget after another goes out of commission?
"The small household appliances go first. After a half a year of this stalemate that you abhor, a woman's knife won't work any more. Her stove begins failing. Her washer doesn't do a good job. The temperature-humidity control in her house dies. What happens?"
He paused for an answer, and Sutt said calmly, "Nothing. People endure a good deal in war."
"But it's very hard to bear up under little things when the patriotic uplift of imminent danger is not present. It's going to be a stalemate. There will be no casualties, no bombardments, no battles. There will just be a knife that won't cut, and a stove that won't cook, and a house that freezes in the winter. It will be annoying, and people will grumble."
"When two years of the stalemate have gone, the machines in the factories will begin to fail. Those industries will find themselves very suddenly ruined."
"The factories ran well enough before you came there, Mallow." said Sutt.
"Yes, Sutt, so they did - at about one-twentieth the profits...With the industrialist and financier and the average man all against him, how long will [you] hold out?"
"And there isn't a factory, not a trading center, not a shipping line that isn't under my control; that I couldn't squeeze to nothing if [you] attempts revolutionary propaganda. Where [your] propaganda succeeds, or even looks as though it might succeed, I will make certain that prosperity dies. Where it fails, prosperity will continue, because my factories will remain fully staffed. The game will be played out to its end."
A deal that will avoid the very thing they claim to fear the most.
It'll be partially true and partially false, but, hey, thems the breaks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/01/john-mcdonnell-says-can-convert-jo-swinson-backing-jeremy-corbyn/
Meanwhile the sun has just slipped below below the treeclad mountains of North Carolina, the temperature is still above 25C and I am sitting in the city square of Asheville - an island of liberalism in a very Republican state - listening to the soulfull buskers and finishing my fish supper while the dog sleeps under the table after polishing off the bison stew from the dog menu on top of his normal dinner. Brexit feels a long way away.
Edit/ as it may well be for all of us.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal
election materials etc ready to go then
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1179076531374694401
Nor am I saying you're wrong, it's just not open and shut from the preparations.
Seem to remember there was a lot of talk about that in the Summer.
https://twitter.com/AndrewScheer/status/862734636543332352?s=20
Conservative Party of Canada Leader Andrew Scheer overtakes Liberal PM Justin Trudeau for the first time as best PM with Nanos by a narrow 28.9% to 28.3% margin.
Overall the Conservatives lead the Liberals 35% to 32% ahead of the Canadian general election later this month
https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos
If you apply the latest polling average to that you get something like Con 42%, LD 21%, Lab 17%, BRX 15%.
By expanding the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse on this subject, a time-limited backstop has gone from a Radical idea to a Sensible compromise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window#/media/File:Overton_Window_diagram.svg
We used data on voting in the last general election in June 2017 and 350 polls conducted since then to determine how many seats British parties would probably win. Our prediction is a “hung Parliament” with no clear majority. The Conservatives win the most seats (323 of 650). Among the opposition parties, Labour gets 223 seats, the Liberal Democrats 32, and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), 48. Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is shut out."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/24/boris-johnson-wants-call-uk-election-can-he-win-it/
But where does that leave the Kinnocks and the Nandys ? Being asked to vote for Hard Brexit in 15 months time.
I see what the DUP are getting. They are getting at least a notional degree of soveriegnty passed down to Stormont and at least a notional limit to the backstop.
But where does that leave Union purists ? The structure seperates NI from GB and potentially permently. And supporters of Remain and/or the Backstop ? Two borders for 4 years then an unknown. It will chill investment and leaves them negotiating directly with the DUP not London or Brussels.
And where does this leave Dublin ? Avoiding its worst nightmare for now but giving up its moment of maximum leverage.
I understand the engineering of the Boris plan. I don't understand where it generates equilibrium.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1179184311108538369
Of course it will be no more sucessful than the Malthouse Compromise but he'll have burned another week.
30
If LD and Labour supporters tactically vote, the LD seat tally drops.
According to the Washington Post.
The council area (Bath and North East Somerset) was remain (57.9%), driven by Bath which was overwhelmingly remain (68%).
He's quoting...Satan. Literally.
Pause
How pissed is he?????
("...Satan exalted sat, by merit raised
To that bad eminence; and, from despair
Thus high uplifted beyond hope, aspires
Beyond thus high, insatiate to pursue
Vain war with Heaven; and, by success untaught,
His proud imaginations thus displayed:--
"Powers and Dominions, Deities of Heaven!--
For, since no deep within her gulf can hold
Immortal vigour, though oppressed and fallen,
I give not Heaven for lost: from this descent
Celestial Virtues rising will appear
More glorious and more dread than from no fall,
And trust themselves to fear no second fate!..", see http://famouspoetsandpoems.com/poets/john_milton/poems/15450.html )