[snip] which gives away that it's simply an attempt to have an excuse to rationalise "But they're BADDIES!"
Really good post. I would add that the failure to agree on what Brexit should look like is a function of the hollowness of the mandate, combined with the failure of the Conservative & Unionist Party to reach out to all parties to build a Brexit consensus.
I've said it before many times, but it needs repeating. The Brexit process on the UK side should have been a consensual, collaborative process. Instead it was treated as a knockout tournament. The trouble with knockout politics, is that the discarded losers tend to pile up in coalition of the dissatisfied. And the baseline was 48%, the Remainers. Added to those have now been those who always wanted a soft Brexit, then those who wanted a parliamentary process to do Brexit, then those who weren't fussed about the type of Brexit there should be but became worried by the incoherence of the red lines, then finally those who wanted to prevent the most damaging of all, a no deal Brexit. As these groups have been systematically eliminated, they have formed a substantial majority of the country, glowering on the sidelines, dissatisfied at what is going on. And still the shrill cries comes from inside the shrinking citadel that those who have been cast out of the city are somehow betraying it.
The fundamental misunderstanding of the hardcore is that politics is about having a battle, and the losers of that battle then silently accepting the dominion of the victors forever. They are confused and angry that people outside this marrow of the pure still want to have an input. Those who think in these terms are wrong. You can't run anything on that basis. It is a fundamentally undemocratic mindset. Your best bet is to stop throwing the impure from the battlements and to start inviting people back in. Start with those who still want Brexit but think it needs to be done a little less madly. Then keep going until you have a majority again. Be nicer to those you partially agree with. You're never going to win me over, but there are people here with me outwith the walls who could be your allies if only you learned that the world doesn't belong to one man. Learn to listen more to those who offer friendly but critical comments. Otherwise, that coalition of the dissatisfied might solidify into a coalition of the get-these-wankers-out.
Exactly. This analysis sums up the Brexiteers approach very well, and also explains why their project is doomed. They cannot achieve, and do not want, a consensus around which the country can unite.
On topic? No, the opposition should not VONC Boris. They should focus on his feeble efforts to get a deal.
The opposition framing is not very good. Boris/Dom know what they are doing with their People vs Parliament stuff.
I strongly agree.
Johnson lied about going for a Deal and about a Deal being the likely outcome if he threatened the EU with No Deal. The opposition should have played along - humoured him - until after the summit. It would have become clear then that he WAS lying and that No Deal was the destination. And he would have had no excuses. He would be the PM with one extreme Brexit policy - No Deal - and furthermore that policy would be seen to have arisen not from strength but from weakness and miscalculation and arguably deception. Of course some would still like it but many of the less committed would not.
At that point action should have been taken by parliament to legislate against this inglorious and shabby looking version of No Deal and to trigger an election in which the Tories would have to run on a No Deal only platform with a leader who has not been prevented by domestic treachery from getting a Deal but has FAILED to get a Deal due to his own limitations. Much much better.
As it is, if things pan out as they look like doing, Johnson gets to fight that election on a ticket that has both cake and consumed cake.
"I would have got a Deal if the Quislings had not chopped me off at the knees with the Surrender Act. Give me a mandate now, my People, and I will resume the good fight. I will make sure we leave DEAL OR NO DEAL on ???"
That works, I'm afraid. It has enormous softhead appeal. I have a very bad feeling about all this.
Although I panned the idea of a Corbyn mini-me it occurs to me that you have to think about Team Corbyn's moves in the context of the Labour succession.
If Corbyn can say, OK, I know other parties have reservations about me but I could support X, then X becomes PM whether of a GoNAfaE or a GNU, that person is then a shoo-in for next Labour leader. So they move into Number 10, Corbyn resigns, Team Corbyn has just regenerated with another 10 years in charge of Labour, and also better propects for the GE.
I think this is why Ma Beckett is such hot stuff in the betting markets. You need someone with no obvious ambition. Corbyn will be wary of someone like Starmer, much more likely to use the PM platform to launch a reverse Labour takeover.
Ann Clwyd, Geoffrey Robinson are another couple of options. Age really helps ones cause here.
It'll be ironic, won't it, after the sound and fury of Boris becoming PM without an election, if those from whom the sound and fury was coming install someone entirely unexpected as PM, specifically in order to prevent Boris facing an election.
It is not in order to stop Boris facing an election. Don't fall for that Number 10 spin. It is to stop Boris setting the election date in November when we are set to leave the EU at the end of October.
A vote of no confidence earlier would have produced an election date in October, as would support for the PM's two motions to have an election. It's not to stop No Deal, it's to try and force Boris to take the blame for an extension. It's transparent and it's hypocritical.
If the HOC could have set the date for the election to before 31/10 then they possibly would have gone for the election request motion but there was nothing stopping Johnson setting the date as 31/10 or latter and were not prepared to trust him.
However without Brexit, especially No Deal, Yes would have near zero chance of winning indyref2 anyway
This is the odd thing, electorally nearly all the parties conceivably benefit from Brexit.
Tories: Tough on negotiating the trade deal with the EU
Lab: Can focus on domestic policies
LD's: Hoover up the 20%+ rejoiners
SNP: Puts a rocket under Indy2
An extension creates headaches for everyone bar the LD's which is why I believe Boris will try and get a deal in front of parliament.
But all of the opposition parties lose from being seen to have enabled a nodeal brexit. They have spent a lot of political capital on saying how bad it will be. If, and that is a mighty big if, BJ does get a new deal in principle it'd be good for most of them.
The trouble OGH - and I'm afraid your remainer bias blinds you to do this though it's something I've mentioned before - is what share of the spoils would the remainers have offered if they got 52%, sorry 51.9%? Answer: Nothing.
The Remain option, unlike the Leave option, was very specific. It was Remain on the terms negotiated by Cameron. One might disagree, but Cameron would argue that his deal represented a little bit of leaving since he'd claimed to have secured an opt-out from "ever closer union" and a few other bits and bobs.
A very close win for Remain would certainly have influenced future British governments in being very wary of anything that looked like further integration. They'd have been terrified of Leave voters.
The idea that we'd now be negotiating entry to the Euro - "the will of the people to Remain must be respected" - is completely absurd, but that's the equivalent to Leave now arguing they have a mandate for No Deal.
Actually, it is Leave that is more likely to force us into the Euro. If they succeed in Brexiting then then only way back in is to take the Euro. If we Remain, it is in the EU's interest (and possibly HMG's interest) to bind us more tightly to the EU to stop future Brexits. This attempted has done enough damage already to last decades.
Although I panned the idea of a Corbyn mini-me it occurs to me that you have to think about Team Corbyn's moves in the context of the Labour succession.
If Corbyn can say, OK, I know other parties have reservations about me but I could support X, then X becomes PM whether of a GoNAfaE or a GNU, that person is then a shoo-in for next Labour leader. So they move into Number 10, Corbyn resigns, Team Corbyn has just regenerated with another 10 years in charge of Labour, and also better propects for the GE.
I think this is why Ma Beckett is such hot stuff in the betting markets. You need someone with no obvious ambition. Corbyn will be wary of someone like Starmer, much more likely to use the PM platform to launch a reverse Labour takeover.
Ann Clwyd, Geoffrey Robinson are another couple of options. Age really helps ones cause here.
It'll be ironic, won't it, after the sound and fury of Boris becoming PM without an election, if those from whom the sound and fury was coming install someone entirely unexpected as PM, specifically in order to prevent Boris facing an election.
It is not in order to stop Boris facing an election. Don't fall for that Number 10 spin. It is to stop Boris setting the election date in November when we are set to leave the EU at the end of October.
A vote of no confidence earlier would have produced an election date in October, as would support for the PM's two motions to have an election. It's not to stop No Deal, it's to try and force Boris to take the blame for an extension. It's transparent and it's hypocritical.
No, because Boris would get to choose the election date. That was the elephant trap Jeremy Corbyn did not blunder into. Boris might have chosen a date before Brexit (and in my view, yes, he would have done) but he could easily have punted it into November. Since the FTPA sets a minimum five weeks, that choice is now moot.
Then they could have set a date in the motion through an amendment.
They've looked at the polling, and they don't want to face the people. Simple as that.
But all of the opposition parties lose from being seen to have enabled a nodeal brexit. They have spent a lot of political capital on saying how bad it will be. If, and that is a mighty big if, BJ does get a new deal in principle it'd be good for most of them.
They won't be enabling no deal.
They would be supporting whatever deal is brought back which can then be spun by all the parties in whatever way suits them.
Johnson lied about going for a Deal and about a Deal being the likely outcome if he threatened the EU with No Deal. The opposition should have played along - humoured him - until after the summit. It would have become clear then that he WAS lying and that No Deal was the destination. And he would have had no excuses. He would be the PM with one extreme Brexit policy - No Deal - and furthermore that policy would be seen to have arisen not from strength but from weakness and miscalculation and arguably deception. Of course some would still like it but many of the less committed would not.
At that point action should have been taken by parliament to legislate against this inglorious and shabby looking version of No Deal and to trigger an election in which the Tories would have to run on a No Deal only platform with a leader who has not been prevented by domestic treachery from getting a Deal but has FAILED to get a Deal due to his own limitations. Much much better.
As it is, if things pan out as they look like doing, Johnson gets to fight that election on a ticket that has both cake and consumed cake.
"I would have got a Deal if the Quislings had not chopped me off at the knees with the Surrender Act. Give me a mandate now, my People, and I will resume the good fight. I will make sure we leave DEAL OR NO DEAL on ???"
That works, I'm afraid. It has enormous softhead appeal. I have a very bad feeling about all this.
The problem is that he would have pretended he was going to get a deal at the last minute (ie Oct 31), and that wouldn't be disproved until it was literally the last minute, at which point it would have been too late for parliament to stop it.
Now, it's possible that he was bluffing and he would have ended up doing a Tsipras-like shrug and taking an extension, but I think it would have been quite reckless for MPs to try to call that bluff, given the effect on their constituents if they'd been wrong.
However, I do think this logic is good when it comes to a VONC / alternative PM. One of the nice things the Benn Act does is to force the issue on October 19th, so he has to play his cards while they still have time to respond.
Given that a GoatCs would be as popular as cold vegan sick, I doubt an early election would be something they would aim for.
Why do you assume it would be unpopular??
As Boris has shown (his approval ratings have gone up 10-15 points since he took office, despite making a complete arse of it), EVERY government has a honeymoon.
However without Brexit, especially No Deal, Yes would have near zero chance of winning indyref2 anyway
This is the odd thing, electorally nearly all the parties conceivably benefit from Brexit.
Tories: Tough on negotiating the trade deal with the EU
Lab: Can focus on domestic policies
LD's: Hoover up the 20%+ rejoiners
SNP: Puts a rocket under Indy2
An extension creates headaches for everyone bar the LD's which is why I believe Boris will try and get a deal in front of parliament.
Yes, though ironically the only party which would not benefit from Brexit being delivered is the Brexit Party, they would also be the main beneficiaries of further extension, especially if the Tories did it
But all of the opposition parties lose from being seen to have enabled a nodeal brexit. They have spent a lot of political capital on saying how bad it will be. If, and that is a mighty big if, BJ does get a new deal in principle it'd be good for most of them.
They won't be enabling no deal.
They would be supporting whatever deal is brought back which can then be spun by all the parties in whatever way suits them.
if they VoNC him this week, like is currently being reported, there will be no deal. if they wait until the EU council meeting then it relies on what BJ proposes being different enough to appease the ERG/DUP but not so different that the EU just say no.
in order for a deal to be voted for there has to be a deal
if they VoNC him this week, like is currently being reported, there will be no deal. if they wait until the EU council meeting then it relies on what BJ proposes being different enough to appease the ERG/DUP but not so different that the EU just say no.
in order for a deal to be voted for there has to be a deal
The most logical candidate might be Theresa May but that is politically impossible!
Is it? Maybe Boris resigns as PM (while remaining Tory leader), and proposes TMay as his replacement on the (entirely reasonable) grounds that she was able to command a majority before, she takes the extension then has another crack at asking Corbyn to vote for an election.
Do not be daft. TM made Gordon Brown look gifted.....
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Fast changing events hence changes in plan. Its now evident that the PM intends to ignore/bypass the law requiring him to request an extension, which means that MPs now have no choice other than to remove him from office.
A VONC now would pass, which gives us 14 days to chose a new PM. Jezbollah will demand it, and won't get it. Lots of screeching about Swinson of course but even with the LibDems on board the numbers aren't there. So they'll have to move on to a different candidate.
MPs hadn't wanted to trigger a VONC for the fear of the 14 day deadline running out. But as Johnson is going No Deal now regardless there is less to fear. Furthermore it will focus the minds of MPs forcing a decision.
Next PM won't be Corbyn. Could be Clarke. Could be Beckett. Entertaining as the idea is can't see it being Bercow. But a challenge IS coming and will succeed. How the Johnson and Corbyn cabals cope sitting alongside each other on the opposition bench across from the emergency government will be fun...
My view, if it comes to that, is that Corbyn will "try" first, and fail (he'd probably get 265 votes, or something like that) and then we move to Beckett/Harman/Benn/Bercow/Hermon etc.
The risk is we get a similar situation to what happened in March where the Commons voted on "alternatives" but couldn't agree any that got above about 280 votes.
At the moment, a best case for an alternative PM is probably about 315 votes, but it's probably enough given Tory + DUP is sub 300.
He has to be seen to try at least once. following that anything can happen
Corbyn has the right to try 1st as Leader of the Opposition. And he will fail. Having started the 14 day countdown minds will be focused - they cant not agree on *someone*. I expectbthat any candidate will fail at 1st attemot. But then someone will drop out and we get to a unity candidate. Who becomes PM and stops Brexit.
But Corbyn would have already taken office as PM before any Affirmative Confidence Vote can take place - there can be no such vote in respect ofa givernment which does not exist! As of now Corbyn can count on Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green plus a few Independents to give a total of circa 290. Were the LDs plus Stephen Lloyd to come aboard , his total would be circa 310. Clarke and Bebb from the ex-Tories might also back him. Whether 312 would be enough would depend on how many ex-Tories and Independents - and ChangeUK MPs - are minded to abstain.
if they VoNC him this week, like is currently being reported, there will be no deal. if they wait until the EU council meeting then it relies on what BJ proposes being different enough to appease the ERG/DUP but not so different that the EU just say no.
in order for a deal to be voted for there has to be a deal
Ah, I think we're at cross wires.
'No deal' and 'no-deal'.
For the avoidance of ambiguity a No-Deal Brexit may also be referred to as the Great Patriotic Flounce
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending. However as the LDs would never support Corbyn as PM it is doubtful he would even be called by the Queen if he cannot command the confidence of the House
The problem with a VONC this week and installation of a caretaker is that it stops any negotiations with the EU and forces the extension. It removes any chance of a deal by the EU council. The leave voting public will see it as further proof of Brexit being thwarted and feelings will harden further against the rebel alliance parties amongst the 'get it done' crowd. Boris could claim he was in the verge of a great deal (irrespective of the actuality) Why would they not wait until the EU council to do it? Then, of course, there are the optics of springing it whilst the Tories are at conference. Is there any clearer metaphor for a coup? Again, irrespective of the actuality.
The problem is that he would have pretended he was going to get a deal at the last minute (ie Oct 31), and that wouldn't be disproved until it was literally the last minute, at which point it would have been too late for parliament to stop it.
Now, it's possible that he was bluffing and he would have ended up doing a Tsipras-like shrug and taking an extension, but I think it would have been quite reckless for MPs to try to call that bluff, given the effect on their constituents if they'd been wrong.
However, I do think this logic is good when it comes to a VONC / alternative PM. One of the nice things the Benn Act does is to force the issue on October 19th, so he has to play his cards while they still have time to respond.
My hunch is he would have choked and extended - but you are right that it would have been high risk. There would have been time for a Benn Act post 19/10, of course, but also time for things like illegal prorogations.
Who knows. My fear is that this way - passing that Act as early as they did - is playing into Johnson's hands. What they must NOT do now is put an interim PM in simply to extend and call a GE. If there is to be a GNU it must run until Spring 2020 at least and ideally should come to a new Deal with the EU (WA plus softer PD) and do the Ref2.
If not, do nothing and allow Johnson the rope to hang himself. Let him fail to get a Deal and exit without one.
For me, the opposition forces stand guilty of prioritizing the national interest over their own electoral prospects. As a Labour supporter, I find that deeply disappointing.
The most logical candidate might be Theresa May but that is politically impossible!
Is it? Maybe Boris resigns as PM (while remaining Tory leader), and proposes TMay as his replacement on the (entirely reasonable) grounds that she was able to command a majority before, she takes the extension then has another crack at asking Corbyn to vote for an election.
Do not be daft. TM made Gordon Brown look gifted.....
Feature not bug: He doesn't want a Tory rival who might outshine him and threaten his slot as Tory leader, and he also doesn't want to give Corbyn the chance to be photographed with Larry the Cat (see JackW's post on optics).
So he needs a Tory, with a claim to making a majority, who isn't very good.
Remarkably (or not), the chap is a member of the Overview and Scrutiny committee of St Helens Council.
"Cllr Smith has since apologised for taking the leaflets.
He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that he removed two Labour leaflets from two properties that were in “poor condition” before pushing his own through the letterbox."
Every party activist nicks other party's leaflets if they are stupid enough to leave them in the porch or still in the letter box
It was one of the first things I was taught about local campaigning
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Remarkably (or not), the chap is a member of the Overview and Scrutiny committee of St Helens Council.
"Cllr Smith has since apologised for taking the leaflets.
He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that he removed two Labour leaflets from two properties that were in “poor condition” before pushing his own through the letterbox."
Every party activist nicks other party's leaflets if they are stupid enough to leave them in the porch or still in the letter box
It was one of the first things I was taught about local campaigning
For all party activists I suspect
You should only do it if you think it is litter.
Well Tory leaflets go well in the cats litter tray
Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem
Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...
no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.
No - we've been through all this several times. The process is: (1) A VoNC in the existing government (2) If the Queen is advised that someone else is likely to be able to command the confidence of the house, she asks them to form a government. They are then prime minister and they form a government. (3) If there is a vote of confidence in the new government within 14 days of the VoNC, there won't be an election. If there is no such vote there will be an election. But the new government remains in office until the election.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaign of 2017 as he would forever be tarred with trying to deny the Leave vote. Corbyn would also at this point be the incumbent like Heath in 1974 and May in 2017 too.
Boris would be handing Corbyn the hospital pass of extending, a major disadvantage (but of course the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
If the remain alliance are looking for some temporary PM to align around just long enough to get an extension and then call an election they why not (drum roll) PM Blackford.
...
I'm sure there's plenty of reasons for everyone to hate the idea, but...OK, neeeeeeever gonna happen, but still.
He would issue a section 30 notice instantly, before extending Article 50, and we'd have another IndyRef.
Not convinced that Swinson would go for that.
They're looking to *win* indyref2, not just call it.
Not sure they'd think using their big moment in charge to do what they said they'd do - extend A50 and then call an election - would be the optimal time for them to slip in "p.s. we gave ourselves the Section 30 we were asking for". I doubt they think that'd play well with the undecideds in the indyref itself.
There will be a perception that remainer MPs are jumping off the cliff now to avoid having to explain why they voted down whatever deal is brought back.
A deal that will be at least as good, but in all likelihood an improvement, on May's deal.
There wouldn't be a plausible excuse for them to have voted it down especially with the hysteria about avoiding no deal.
Cummings had absolutely nailed remainer MP's to the floor in a way which has surprised me.
I look forward to the GE...unlike Labour MP's.
The polls are very unclear though. Opinium has Labour losing 50 seats - whilst Comres has them gaining seats from the Tories.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Yes, and that is why Corbyn wants it, and has offered purdah to get it. But the optics work for Boris too, since he can then run an insurgent campaign, championing the people against the Establishment. Without the job swap, Boris is the Establishment.
Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem
Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...
no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.
No - we've been through all this several times. The process is: (1) A VoNC in the existing government (2) If the Queen is advised that someone else is likely to be able to command the confidence of the house, she asks them to form a government. They are then prime minister and they form a government. (3) If there is a vote of confidence in the new government within 14 days of the VoNC, there won't be an election. If there is no such vote there will be an election. But the new government remains in office until the election.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Like I keep saying... in July, before he took office, Boris's approval ratings were in the mid-20s (only very slightly higher than Corbyn's) - they've jumped to the high 30s now. But, since it was only being PM that caused that improvement, who's to say they won't slide right back to where they were if he stops being PM?
The problem with a VONC this week and installation of a caretaker is that it stops any negotiations with the EU and forces the extension. It removes any chance of a deal by the EU council. The leave voting public will see it as further proof of Brexit being thwarted and feelings will harden further against the rebel alliance parties amongst the 'get it done' crowd. Boris could claim he was in the verge of a great deal (irrespective of the actuality) Why would they not wait until the EU council to do it? Then, of course, there are the optics of springing it whilst the Tories are at conference. Is there any clearer metaphor for a coup? Again, irrespective of the actuality.
This is the point I'm making.
I would have preferred the Benn Act and/or a VONC - all of that - to have been unleashed only after Johnson came back from the summit on 19/10 with nothing to offer but the prospect of a chaotic crash-out from the EU in less than a fortnight.
This would offer better optics for the opposition and be bad for Johnson. He would look reckless, incompetent, deceitful. They would look to be genuinely concerned in the main with avoiding the chaos of No Deal. At least to many of the less committed members of the public anyway, which is what will count in the GE when it comes.
GNU thoughts - if the plan is a GNU to extend and get a referendum they need to be careful who. Clarke is not keen on a second ref Grieve would want no deal as an option (he has publically said it must be as there is some support for that too in the country) Letwin is probably the only ex Tory who would deliver what they want in full but he would be very anti the current Labour front bench in everything else I dont see a GNU that can do anything but extend and call a GE
if they VoNC him this week, like is currently being reported, there will be no deal. if they wait until the EU council meeting then it relies on what BJ proposes being different enough to appease the ERG/DUP but not so different that the EU just say no.
in order for a deal to be voted for there has to be a deal
There will be a perception that remainer MPs are jumping off the cliff now to avoid having to explain why they voted down whatever deal is brought back.
A deal that will be at least as good, but in all likelihood an improvement, on May's deal.
There wouldn't be a plausible excuse for them to have voted it down especially with the hysteria about avoiding no deal.
Cummings had absolutely nailed remainer MP's to the floor in a way which has surprised me.
I look forward to the GE...unlike Labour MP's.
The polls are very unclear though. Opinium has Labour losing 50 seats - whilst Comres has them gaining seats from the Tories.
Latest Comres has Labour gaining 14 seats from the Tories but is likely an outlier as it has the LDs lower than other pollsters and the Brexit Party higher
The problem with a VONC this week and installation of a caretaker is that it stops any negotiations with the EU and forces the extension. It removes any chance of a deal by the EU council. The leave voting public will see it as further proof of Brexit being thwarted and feelings will harden further against the rebel alliance parties amongst the 'get it done' crowd. Boris could claim he was in the verge of a great deal (irrespective of the actuality) Why would they not wait until the EU council to do it? Then, of course, there are the optics of springing it whilst the Tories are at conference. Is there any clearer metaphor for a coup? Again, irrespective of the actuality.
This is the point I'm making.
I would have preferred the Benn Act and/or a VONC - all of that - to have been unleashed only after Johnson came back from the summit on 19/10 with nothing to offer but the prospect of a chaotic crash-out from the EU in less than a fortnight.
This would offer better optics for the opposition and be bad for Johnson. He would look reckless, incompetent, deceitful. They would look to be genuinely concerned in the main with avoiding the chaos of No Deal. At least to many of the less committed members of the public anyway, which is what will count in the GE when it comes.
Yep I'd agree there. Coming back from the EU empty handed is Boris' weakest point going forward
The problem with a VONC this week and installation of a caretaker is that it stops any negotiations with the EU and forces the extension. It removes any chance of a deal by the EU council. The leave voting public will see it as further proof of Brexit being thwarted and feelings will harden further against the rebel alliance parties amongst the 'get it done' crowd. Boris could claim he was in the verge of a great deal (irrespective of the actuality) Why would they not wait until the EU council to do it? Then, of course, there are the optics of springing it whilst the Tories are at conference. Is there any clearer metaphor for a coup? Again, irrespective of the actuality.
This is the point I'm making.
I would have preferred the Benn Act and/or a VONC - all of that - to have been unleashed only after Johnson came back from the summit on 19/10 with nothing to offer but the prospect of a chaotic crash-out from the EU in less than a fortnight.
This would offer better optics for the opposition and be bad for Johnson. He would look reckless, incompetent, deceitful. They would look to be genuinely concerned in the main with avoiding the chaos of No Deal. At least to many of the less committed members of the public anyway, which is what will count in the GE when it comes.
Yep I'd agree there. Coming back from the EU empty handed is Boris' weakest point going forward
That depends, provided he has offered the EU a technical alternative to the backstop and the EU refused I doubt that weakens him at all, in fact it makes him look reasonable against the stubborn EU and probably increases his support
Grieve would want no deal as an option (he has publically said it must be as there is some support for that too in the country)
Thus putting the lie, once again, to the propagandistic descriptions of Grieve as "always working to stop any type of Brexit", that keep cropping up on these pages. He didn't even get involved in promoting new legislation until May raised No Deal, and now he still wants to put even that option to a publicly legitimised vote.
Sequencing. if they no confidence Johnson then to have a change of PM they need to vote confidence in someone else otherwise 14 days and Johnson chooses election date. If he resigns he puts Corbyn in No 10 as the queen has no alternative but to invite him to form a government and he PM until there is a no confidence vote or until after the next election (should he lose) don’t mix the two scenarios up. If
I would have preferred the Benn Act and/or a VONC - all of that - to have been unleashed only after Johnson came back from the summit on 19/10 with nothing to offer but the prospect of a chaotic crash-out from the EU in less than a fortnight.
This would offer better optics for the opposition and be bad for Johnson. He would look reckless, incompetent, deceitful. They would look to be genuinely concerned in the main with avoiding the chaos of No Deal. At least to many of the less committed members of the public anyway, which is what will count in the GE when it comes.
I agree with you here.
Boris can (and probably will) claim there was an excellent deal coming that parliament would have voted for if they were acting in good faith.
There could be an argument made that remainer MP's are going for an early VoNC to avoid being put on the spot with a new deal.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaign of 2017 as he would forever be tarred with trying to deny the Leave vote. Corbyn would also at this point be the incumbent like Heath in 1974 and May in 2017 too.
Boris would be handing Corbyn the hospital pass of extending, a major disadvantage (but of course the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
You're completely missing the point. It's gone so far over your head as to be heading into orbit.
I agree with those saying leave Johnson exactly where he is.
Force him to try to get a deal - he says he's done his homework, so make him show it to the class. If he gets nothing, force him to write the letter - he says he won't, and that "genius" Dom has a cunning plan, but he will (because the law is watertight and courts will force him) and he doesn't (because the emperor has no clothes).
I dislike them intensely but making such a monumental change to our voting system whilst another party is having their conference would be too low even for them.
I dislike them intensely but making such a monumental change to our voting system whilst another party is having their conference would be too low even for them.
Bozza opened the door for "too low, even for them" with the idiotic prorogation.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
When Johnson salutes in his Benny Hill/ Fred Scuttle style it is cringeworth, it would seem he offers other similarities to Benny Hill characters.
I agree with those saying leave Johnson exactly where he is.
Force him to try to get a deal - he says he's done his homework, so make him show it to the class. If he gets nothing, force him to write the letter - he says he won't, and that "genius" Dom has a cunning plan, but he will (because the law is watertight and courts will force him) and he doesn't (because the emperor has no clothes).
There will always be a deal to present even if the packaging is different rather than the content.
And he can't be forced to write the letter...the government will resign and nominate Corbyn forcing him to commit electoral suicide.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaign of 2017 as he would forever be tarred with trying to deny the Leave vote. Corbyn would also at this point be the incumbent like Heath in 1974 and May in 2017 too.
Boris would be handing Corbyn the hospital pass of extending, a major disadvantage (but of course the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
You're completely missing the point. It's gone so far over your head as to be heading into orbit.
No matter ..
No you are completely missing the point ie if Corbyn extends he commits political suicide in Leave seats and Boris can portray him at the traitor to the Brexit vote.
However as I have said it is all hypothetical as the LDs and CUK and Tory rebels would vote down a Corbyn premiership even if Boris loses a VONC
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
Again, Bozza has opened the door to all of this with the prorogation. Expect Bercow and Labour to do everything possible to make the government's job impossible.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
Again, Bozza has opened the door to all of this with the prorogation. Expect Bercow and Labour to do everything possible to make the government's job impossible.
That depends if they want to be on under 100 seats after the GE
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaign of 2017 as he would forever be tarred with trying to deny the Leave vote. Corbyn would also at this point be the incumbent like Heath in 1974 and May in 2017 too.
Boris would be handing Corbyn the hospital pass of extending, a major disadvantage (but of course the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
You're completely missing the point. It's gone so far over your head as to be heading into orbit.
No matter ..
No you are completely missing the point ie if Corbyn extends he commits political suicide in Leave seats and Boris can portray him at the traitor to the Brexit vote.
However as I have said it is all hypothetical as the LDs and CUK and Tory rebels would vote down a Corbyn premiership even if Boris loses a VONC
Labour leavers are more labour than leave talk of traitors is rubbish it was only ever Johnson who made 31/10 some kind of deadline.
GNU thoughts - if the plan is a GNU to extend and get a referendum they need to be careful who. Clarke is not keen on a second ref Grieve would want no deal as an option (he has publically said it must be as there is some support for that too in the country) Letwin is probably the only ex Tory who would deliver what they want in full but he would be very anti the current Labour front bench in everything else I dont see a GNU that can do anything but extend and call a GE
This whole notion of a GNU is a really bad idea for the longer term. I am also surprised anyone else would want to enter this car crash moments before impact. Johnson owns Brexit!
I cannot see past a Johnson no deal. If we leave without a deal and it is OK, that is fine. If as is more likely in my ill-informed opinion and no deal does indeed mirror project fear and we crash and burn, cool heads need to rebuild our nation and our relationship with the EU. Probably without Scotland.
Again, Bozza has opened the door to all of this with the prorogation. Expect Bercow and Labour to do everything possible to make the government's job impossible.
Fingers crossed.
The more remainers are seen to be playing games the angrier the public are going to get.
I agree with those saying leave Johnson exactly where he is.
Force him to try to get a deal - he says he's done his homework, so make him show it to the class. If he gets nothing, force him to write the letter - he says he won't, and that "genius" Dom has a cunning plan, but he will (because the law is watertight and courts will force him) and he doesn't (because the emperor has no clothes).
There will always be a deal to present even if the packaging is different rather than the content.
And he can't be forced to write the letter...the government will resign and nominate Corbyn forcing him to commit electoral suicide.
It’s not suicide who’s date is 31/10 the only former labour people incensed by extending are already identifying and voting for TBP
I agree with those saying leave Johnson exactly where he is.
Force him to try to get a deal - he says he's done his homework, so make him show it to the class. If he gets nothing, force him to write the letter - he says he won't, and that "genius" Dom has a cunning plan, but he will (because the law is watertight and courts will force him) and he doesn't (because the emperor has no clothes).
There will always be a deal to present even if the packaging is different rather than the content.
And he can't be forced to write the letter...the government will resign and nominate Corbyn forcing him to commit electoral suicide.
It’s not suicide who’s date is 31/10 the only former labour people incensed by extending are already identifying and voting for TBP
Polling shows the public not in favour of extending. It wont change all votes but it will change some. And that may be the difference to the eventual departure and future direction for the newly exited UK
I dislike them intensely but making such a monumental change to our voting system whilst another party is having their conference would be too low even for them.
Bozza opened the door for "too low, even for them" with the idiotic prorogation.
Well quite. I wouldn’t haven’t have insisted on their sitting during Tory conference, but if you play with fire, you get burned.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
Again, Bozza has opened the door to all of this with the prorogation. Expect Bercow and Labour to do everything possible to make the government's job impossible.
That depends if they want to be on under 100 seats after the GE
I don’t think things will get quite that bad for the Tories.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
Again, Bozza has opened the door to all of this with the prorogation. Expect Bercow and Labour to do everything possible to make the government's job impossible.
That depends if they want to be on under 100 seats after the GE
I don’t think things will get quite that bad for the Tories.
There will be a perception that remainer MPs are jumping off the cliff now to avoid having to explain why they voted down whatever deal is brought back.
A deal that will be at least as good, but in all likelihood an improvement, on May's deal.
There wouldn't be a plausible excuse for them to have voted it down especially with the hysteria about avoiding no deal.
Cummings had absolutely nailed remainer MP's to the floor in a way which has surprised me.
I look forward to the GE...unlike Labour MP's.
The polls are very unclear though. Opinium has Labour losing 50 seats - whilst Comres has them gaining seats from the Tories.
Latest Comres has Labour gaining 14 seats from the Tories but is likely an outlier as it has the LDs lower than other pollsters and the Brexit Party higher
Neither poll says any such thing as they are merely snapshots of opinion expressed as a national percentage. They tell us very little about seat by seat races, even when put through daft filters like Baxter or Flaviable.
Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.
Sounds like John Major
Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.
Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major
Major had an affair. To my knowledge he did not do it as a matter of routine or behave in a predatory way towards women.
A neutral observer might say both were guilty of betrayal and lies, and their behaviour should be seen in that light. I dont even know if that's correct. Should we take one aspect of someones character and use it to judge them over the broad spectrum of their lives? I'd say life was more complex than such a narrow view, you'd end up either hating everyone, or have to come to an arrangement in your mind that some people were good, others bad, and make allowances or not from that perspective.
Both are guilty of betrayal and lies. People make mistakes and behave badly. We all do. However, Johnson has done it as a matter of routine throughout his adult life. He has serially betrayed the people closest to him, he has been sacked twice for lying and today it has emerged he groped a female journalist when he was editor of the Spectator. I will absolutely judge someone who has behaved dishonestly, venally and selfishly throughout his adult life if he puts himself up for office.
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaig the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
You're completely missing the point. It's gone so far over your head as to be heading into orbit.
No matter ..
No you are completely missing the point ie if Corbyn extends he commits political suicide in Leave seats and Boris can portray him at the traitor to the Brexit vote.
However as I have said it is all hypothetical as the LDs and CUK and Tory rebels would vote down a Corbyn premiership even if Boris loses a VONC
Labour leavers are more labour than leave talk of traitors is rubbish it was only ever Johnson who made 31/10 some kind of deadline.
Labour Leave voters prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM by 42% to 23% with Ashcroft's new poll today (as opposed to Labour Remain voters who prefer Corbyn to Boris as PM by 63% to 5%), Tory Remain voters also prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM by 59% to 4% and Tory Leave voters prefer Boris to Corbyn by 91% to 0%
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
I think there is a case for emergency legislation to repeal the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) to avoid misuse. And also a case for passing legislation limiting prorogation to say no more than five working days, again to avoid misuse and to take back control from the SC.
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
As to who might lead an anti-no deal government, my thoughts haven’t really moved on since mid-August, with the exception that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances have been improved by no other unity candidate carrying general support among the putative coalition’s groupuscles:
Thoughts and prayers for your Ken Clarke lay (25-1 when you wrote the piece) now in to 8-1.
I laid him heavily at 12-1 and I'm sweating a bit. I laid him because he said he wanted to do more than simply ask for an extension and then a GE, which I didn't think would be acceptable.
I note some PBers both this morning and over the past few days have posited the view that Boris might resign or Jezza refuse to accept the position of Prime Minister. I consider those views are mistaken for one reason - Optics.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the h.
Optics !!
Labour vote collapses in Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party as Labour Leave voters see Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain 2 for extending
That may or may not be the case. Elections rarely revolve around one issue - Heath and Feb 1974 and May and 2017 refer. What you don't do is hand your opponent a considerable advantage leading into and through an election.
Neither Heath nor May ran a populist campaign, Boris would run a populist campaign to deliver Brexit and would prevent Corbyn repeating his populist campaig the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
You're completely missing the point. It's gone so far over your head as to be heading into orbit.
No matter ..
No you are completely missing the point ie if Corbyn extends premiership even if Boris loses a VONC
Labour leavers are more labour than leave talk of traitors is rubbish it was only ever Johnson who made 31/10 some kind of deadline.
Labour Leave voters prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM by 42% to 23% with Ashcroft's new poll today (as opposed to Labour Remain voters who prefer Corbyn to Boris as PM by 63% to 5%), Tory Remain voters also prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM by 59% to 4% and Tory Leave voters prefer Boris to Corbyn by 91% to 0%
Only 30% of Labour Leave voters will definitely vote Labour at the next election compared to 55% of Labour Remain voters who will definitely vote Labour.
55% of Tory Remain voters and 70% of Tory Leave voters will definitely vote Tory. 60% of LD voters will definitely vote LD.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
I think there is a case for emergency legislation to repeal the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) to avoid misuse. And also a case for passing legislation limiting prorogation to say no more than five working days, again to avoid misuse and to take back control from the SC.
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
Now is absolutely the wrong time to start trying to 'improve' the constitution. You don't do things like that in haste or in response to any given set of circumstances. There are always unintended consequences to such things - and you can set things in motion that you had no idea would ever be possible.
I am in favour of setting up a Constitutional Convention with a wide remit and completely non-partisan membership. Give it a 1 year time frame for information and evidence gathering and then a further 12-18 months to come back with recommendations.
But rushing through anything that alters the constitutional arrangements at this stage would be utterly wrong. And potentially very dangerous.
Even Bercow couldn't, with a straight face, allow an SO24 land grab over this. It is in no way an emergency that requires commons time.
I think there is a case for emergency legislation to repeal the Civil Contingencies Act (2004) to avoid misuse. And also a case for passing legislation limiting prorogation to say no more than five working days, again to avoid misuse and to take back control from the SC.
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
What are you suggesting replace the CCA? Or are we not going to deal with emergencies and war should they arise? Its ine thing to be keen to avoid a no deal Brexit, its quite another to throw the baby out with the bathwater
Comments
Johnson lied about going for a Deal and about a Deal being the likely outcome if he threatened the EU with No Deal. The opposition should have played along - humoured him - until after the summit. It would have become clear then that he WAS lying and that No Deal was the destination. And he would have had no excuses. He would be the PM with one extreme Brexit policy - No Deal - and furthermore that policy would be seen to have arisen not from strength but from weakness and miscalculation and arguably deception. Of course some would still like it but many of the less committed would not.
At that point action should have been taken by parliament to legislate against this inglorious and shabby looking version of No Deal and to trigger an election in which the Tories would have to run on a No Deal only platform with a leader who has not been prevented by domestic treachery from getting a Deal but has FAILED to get a Deal due to his own limitations. Much much better.
As it is, if things pan out as they look like doing, Johnson gets to fight that election on a ticket that has both cake and consumed cake.
"I would have got a Deal if the Quislings had not chopped me off at the knees with the Surrender Act. Give me a mandate now, my People, and I will resume the good fight. I will make sure we leave DEAL OR NO DEAL on ???"
That works, I'm afraid. It has enormous softhead appeal. I have a very bad feeling about all this.
Agree up until the bit where Corbyn turns the offer down.
If the HOC could have set the date for the election to before 31/10 then they possibly would have gone for the election request motion but there was nothing stopping Johnson setting the date as 31/10 or latter and were not prepared to trust him.
They've looked at the polling, and they don't want to face the people. Simple as that.
Even the Murdoch papers have been less gullible than them in responding to Johnson's announcements.
They would be supporting whatever deal is brought back which can then be spun by all the parties in whatever way suits them.
Now, it's possible that he was bluffing and he would have ended up doing a Tsipras-like shrug and taking an extension, but I think it would have been quite reckless for MPs to try to call that bluff, given the effect on their constituents if they'd been wrong.
However, I do think this logic is good when it comes to a VONC / alternative PM. One of the nice things the Benn Act does is to force the issue on October 19th, so he has to play his cards while they still have time to respond.
I will refrain from commenting on their tournament prospects...
As Boris has shown (his approval ratings have gone up 10-15 points since he took office, despite making a complete arse of it), EVERY government has a honeymoon.
in order for a deal to be voted for there has to be a deal
Tories 315
Labour 216
SNP 51
LDs 45
Plaid 4
Greens 1
NI 18
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=30.8&LAB=24.3&LIB=21&Brexit=14.5&Green=4.3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=15&SCOTLIB=12&SCOTBrexit=6&SCOTGreen=4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
'No deal' and 'no-deal'.
Corbyn travels to Buck House to accept the Queen's commission to become Prime Minister. Photo taken of Jezza bowing head to Queen. Travels back to Downing Street in limo as PM and makes all embracing statement. Pictures of Jezza waving as he enters 10 Downing Street.
Parties swap positions in the HoC. Makes statement and takes PMQ. Has all the panoply of the office of Prime Minister. If there is no GONU, advises the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election. Remains PM and campaigns during the general election as such.
Optics !!
Why would they not wait until the EU council to do it?
Then, of course, there are the optics of springing it whilst the Tories are at conference. Is there any clearer metaphor for a coup? Again, irrespective of the actuality.
Who knows. My fear is that this way - passing that Act as early as they did - is playing into Johnson's hands. What they must NOT do now is put an interim PM in simply to extend and call a GE. If there is to be a GNU it must run until Spring 2020 at least and ideally should come to a new Deal with the EU (WA plus softer PD) and do the Ref2.
If not, do nothing and allow Johnson the rope to hang himself. Let him fail to get a Deal and exit without one.
For me, the opposition forces stand guilty of prioritizing the national interest over their own electoral prospects. As a Labour supporter, I find that deeply disappointing.
Could have fooled me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49868344
So he needs a Tory, with a claim to making a majority, who isn't very good.
It's not true is it?
(1) A VoNC in the existing government
(2) If the Queen is advised that someone else is likely to be able to command the confidence of the house, she asks them to form a government. They are then prime minister and they form a government.
(3) If there is a vote of confidence in the new government within 14 days of the VoNC, there won't be an election. If there is no such vote there will be an election. But the new government remains in office until the election.
Boris would be handing Corbyn the hospital pass of extending, a major disadvantage (but of course the LDs as I said would vote down Corbyn as PM anyway)
Not sure they'd think using their big moment in charge to do what they said they'd do - extend A50 and then call an election - would be the optimal time for them to slip in "p.s. we gave ourselves the Section 30 we were asking for". I doubt they think that'd play well with the undecideds in the indyref itself.
I would have preferred the Benn Act and/or a VONC - all of that - to have been unleashed only after Johnson came back from the summit on 19/10 with nothing to offer but the prospect of a chaotic crash-out from the EU in less than a fortnight.
This would offer better optics for the opposition and be bad for Johnson. He would look reckless, incompetent, deceitful. They would look to be genuinely concerned in the main with avoiding the chaos of No Deal. At least to many of the less committed members of the public anyway, which is what will count in the GE when it comes.
Clarke is not keen on a second ref
Grieve would want no deal as an option (he has publically said it must be as there is some support for that too in the country)
Letwin is probably the only ex Tory who would deliver what they want in full but he would be very anti the current Labour front bench in everything else
I dont see a GNU that can do anything but extend and call a GE
'I'm becoming irrelevant, please help me'
Boris can (and probably will) claim there was an excellent deal coming that parliament would have voted for if they were acting in good faith.
There could be an argument made that remainer MP's are going for an early VoNC to avoid being put on the spot with a new deal.
https://order-order.com/2019/09/29/labour-may-use-tory-conference-pass-votes-16/
No matter ..
Force him to try to get a deal - he says he's done his homework, so make him show it to the class. If he gets nothing, force him to write the letter - he says he won't, and that "genius" Dom has a cunning plan, but he will (because the law is watertight and courts will force him) and he doesn't (because the emperor has no clothes).
I dislike them intensely but making such a monumental change to our voting system whilst another party is having their conference would be too low even for them.
There will always be a deal to present even if the packaging is different rather than the content.
And he can't be forced to write the letter...the government will resign and nominate Corbyn forcing him to commit electoral suicide.
However as I have said it is all hypothetical as the LDs and CUK and Tory rebels would vote down a Corbyn premiership even if Boris loses a VONC
I cannot see past a Johnson no deal. If we leave without a deal and it is OK, that is fine. If as is more likely in my ill-informed opinion and no deal does indeed mirror project fear and we crash and burn, cool heads need to rebuild our nation and our relationship with the EU. Probably without Scotland.
The more remainers are seen to be playing games the angrier the public are going to get.
It’s not suicide who’s date is 31/10 the only former labour people incensed by extending are already identifying and voting for TBP
It seems to me that whoever signs the extension letter loses.
Or in Labour's case, lose in a worse way than they otherwise will.
A must read in the future.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/15/small-minds-and-brexit-jeremy-corbyns-latest-gambit/
Winner: Hamilton, 4
Winner, Bottas, 32
Lead first lap: Vettel, 6
Top6: Verstappen, LAY 1.22
Top10: Albon, 1.55
Safety car: NO SC, 2.66
Classified drivers: Under17,5, 1.66
Classified: Vettel, LAY 1.21
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/state-of-the-nation-my-new-polling-on-the-political-landscape-and-the-battle-lines-for-the-next-election/
I hope the "government in opposition" take full advantage, via SO24s, to improve constitutional law. It should have cross party support.
55% of Tory Remain voters and 70% of Tory Leave voters will definitely vote Tory.
60% of LD voters will definitely vote LD.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/state-of-the-nation-my-new-polling-on-the-political-landscape-and-the-battle-lines-for-the-next-election/
I am in favour of setting up a Constitutional Convention with a wide remit and completely non-partisan membership. Give it a 1 year time frame for information and evidence gathering and then a further 12-18 months to come back with recommendations.
But rushing through anything that alters the constitutional arrangements at this stage would be utterly wrong. And potentially very dangerous.
It is far, far worse than anything said in Parliament this week
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1178261480078237696