politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next w

Penddu said:

World Champions in Waiting 23 Australia & Fiji 8...
Excellent game

You trying the old jinx trick ?

OblitusSumMe said:

Sandpit said:

From reading all these comments, does anyone think that a takeover of government by various opposition factions would last more than a day?

The chief objective of a replacement government would be to secure an extension to Article 50. I think it would survive for the 36 hours or so required.

I agree, but some people in favour of this arrangement are now talking about it holding for long enough to arrange a second referendum - which would take the best part of a year.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1178228991829905408

Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.

Mr. B, mildly annoyed by the odds lengthening, but Ladbrokes have it exactly as you suggest, 3/1 (interesting as Hamilton, starting ahead albeit on slower tyres, is 5.5/1).

TheJezziah said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheJezziah said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I didn't say Labour MPs will abstain. Just the cabal.

Without the cabal voting for a new PM then there will likely fail to be a majority for a new PM to replace Boris as it needs comfortably over 300 votes to elect that new PM, thus forcing a general election 14 days after Boris loses a VONC

Rochdale really doesn't like Corbyn so it is either confront the fact he needs Corbyn to help him do what he wants or pretend he can't count. The latter is probably less painful...

What is utterly clear to anyone who can count is that Jeremy Corbyn does not have the votes to carry the confidence of the house. Lets assume that EVERY opposition MP backed him - including people like John Woodcock, Frank Field etc. That isn't a majority. So he needs the votes of Philip Hammond, Dominic Grieve etc. Which he won't get. Whether I like or don't like someone doesn't change mathematics - this isn't politics is adding.

So after he has lost, it then comes down to which candidate can carry votes from all parties and from the MPs of no party. Clarke or Harman have a claim as Father/Mother of the House so I'd expect discussions formalised around them. If neither of those the Herman, Beckett, Bercow. With the clock running down minds get focused - and yes, I wouldn't be at all surprised to have people say "give Corbyn another chance". It'll be fun.

You can read my post on it if you want right at the start. I don't think anyone has the numbers, claiming you can do it without those you don't like is pretty damn optimistic.

I don't think Corbyn can do it but I think others will be even further away, there are Labour MPs bound by wanting to continue standing for the party who have to vote for Corbyn but will not have to vote for other people who might risk Brexit in one way or another.

TBH I'm hoping it doesn't come to it because I don't see it working at all. Too many other priorities for parties like the Lib Dems and Change.

We both agree that "I don't think anyone has the numbers". They don't. If all parties vote the way they normally do then its stalemate. Which is why compromise is needed. Do I think there is any scenario where Corbyn wins a vote in this parliament? No. Do I think there is a scenario where someone else does?Yes - if Corbyn accepts that (a) it won't be him and (b) it has to be someone or we get no deal.

HYUFD said:

Boris reiterates his support for a points based immigration system as opposed to Labour's backing for full free movement.

Australian style?

edmundintokyo said:

spudgfsh said:

could they go as far as not having a cabinet? The current tory ministers would resign so you can't do continuation

Hmm, maybe you're right. But doesn't the new PM usually do that on their first day? So there must be a period when the PM has changed, but the cabinet posts are either vacant or still filled by their previous occupants. (I guess the latter.)

If it really needs doing fast, the quick way is to appoint the Select Committee chairs to their respective ministries, then you just need to slot in a few choices for where they're Tories who won't take the job.

I think that there needs to be ministers of each ministry just to deal with any emergencies which happen during the election. the ministries will run themselves by and by with little outside input. it would be messy.

Andy_Cooke said:

On who should be caretaker PM in a GNU/GONAFAE/Whatever...

It appeals, narratively, for Ed Milliband to do it.

And to respond to Cameron's famous "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband" tweet with "Just picking up the pieces after your stability and strong Government, David"

Everybody would love that except... Team Corbyn. But what are they going to do, vote him down?

So they need to get behind a consensus choice in pre-parliamentary haggling, and make sure it doesn't get decided in a public vote.

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

We do not have a presidential system. It is not candidate X but rather prime minister X leading government X. That is the problem with so-called unity candidates like Clarke or Lady Sylvia: by the time you've sorted out who will be in their governments, we'd have fallen out of the EU anyway.

You don't have to do things in that order. First they just have to pick someone who isn't too awful to get you through the week. One vote - or even just the general vibe as communicated to the palace - is enough to put them in Downing Street and Boris out in his ear.

That person is now Prime Minister. They can then immediately request the extension, and *now* you can haggle: If they want to put together a majority to do something other than call an election, they can carve up jobs and make spending promises and push a brexit plan. If that haggling fails, you can let the 14 days tick down and have an election, with the caretaker taking care of things until it's done.

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

FrankBooth said:

Brexiteers did not get 52%, they got 51.9%.

The trouble OGH - and I'm afraid your remainer bias blinds you to do this though it's something I've mentioned before - is what share of the spoils would the remainers have offered if they got 52%, sorry 51.9%? Answer: Nothing.

The Remain option, unlike the Leave option, was very specific. It was Remain on the terms negotiated by Cameron. One might disagree, but Cameron would argue that his deal represented a little bit of leaving since he'd claimed to have secured an opt-out from "ever closer union" and a few other bits and bobs.

A very close win for Remain would certainly have influenced future British governments in being very wary of anything that looked like further integration. They'd have been terrified of Leave voters.

The idea that we'd now be negotiating entry to the Euro - "the will of the people to Remain must be respected" - is completely absurd, but that's the equivalent to Leave now arguing they have a mandate for No Deal.

Gardenwalker said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1178228991829905408

Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.

Sexual predator?
Steady on.
He’s just a shagger. The world is full of them and is no shortage of ladies who seem to appreciate them.

Sure, he’s betrayed his wife and family multiple times, hence for example why it’s said his children with Marina Wheeler won’t speak to him any more, but that’s different from being a “predator”.

Read the Charlotte Edwardes column in today’s Sunday Times.

TGOHF2 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sandpit said:

From reading all these comments, does anyone think that a takeover of government by various opposition factions would last more than a day?

The chief objective of a replacement government would be to secure an extension to Article 50. I think it would survive for the 36 hours or so required.

Then what ?

I don't know, but I think a better criticism of my post would be of its possibly misplaced confidence in what happens in those first 36 hours.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, mildly annoyed by the odds lengthening, but Ladbrokes have it exactly as you suggest, 3/1 (interesting as Hamilton, starting ahead albeit on slower tyres, is 5.5/1).

Leclerc will probably hang on to his lead if he nails the start, but only just.

Mercedes have no chance at all unless both Ferraris really mess up - and I suppose a red on red clash at the first corner is also a slim possibility. I’m not sure I’d be tempted by Hamilton at 10/1.

Boris says everything he did with Jennifer Arcuri was done with "full propriety".

Man cannot resist the laddish boasting even on Sunday morning TV. Unbelievable.

#notfitforoffice

Pulpstar said:

edmundintokyo said:

Although I panned the idea of a Corbyn mini-me it occurs to me that you have to think about Team Corbyn's moves in the context of the Labour succession.

If Corbyn can say, OK, I know other parties have reservations about me but I could support X, then X becomes PM whether of a GoNAfaE or a GNU, that person is then a shoo-in for next Labour leader. So they move into Number 10, Corbyn resigns, Team Corbyn has just regenerated with another 10 years in charge of Labour, and also better propects for the GE.

I think this is why Ma Beckett is such hot stuff in the betting markets. You need someone with no obvious ambition. Corbyn will be wary of someone like Starmer, much more likely to use the PM platform to launch a reverse Labour takeover.

Ann Clwyd, Geoffrey Robinson are another couple of options. Age really helps ones cause here.

It'll be ironic, won't it, after the sound and fury of Boris becoming PM without an election, if those from whom the sound and fury was coming install someone entirely unexpected as PM, specifically in order to prevent Boris facing an election.

Mr. B, helpful safety car timing could help Mercedes, or the Ferraris running into one another.

On pace, though, I agree. Should be a nice day for a Ferrari fan.

Why not have Ian Blackford as interim PM?

asjohnstone said:

Would it be legally possible, assuming a conservative election victory, for Boris to pass retrospective legislation making his actions around the prorouging of parliament entirely lawful?

There wouldn’t be any need to, as events have already played out - unless he was trying something really sneaky like getting the Benn law annulled.

There will almost certainly be a law to clarify the process around prorougation, lest someone decides to get he courts involved every time it happens.

2019 will definitely be a large chapter in future Constitutional Law books!

Andy_Cooke said:

On who should be caretaker PM in a GNU/GONAFAE/Whatever...

It appeals, narratively, for Ed Milliband to do it.

And to respond to Cameron's famous "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband" tweet with "Just picking up the pieces after your stability and strong Government, David"

Ed Miliband, the David-slaying goliath of our times, from his brother to Cameron (eventually).

JohnWheatley said:

HYUFD said:

MattW said:

FPT:

williamglenn said:

Tory boys on tour.

https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1178081653018767360?s=21

Naughty. How dare they steal their campaign techniques from the Lib Dems.



https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/resources/images/9804785.png

Remarkably (or not), the chap is a member of the Overview and Scrutiny committee of St Helens Council.

"Cllr Smith has since apologised for taking the leaflets.

He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that he removed two Labour leaflets from two properties that were in “poor condition” before pushing his own through the letterbox."

Every party activist nicks other party's leaflets if they are stupid enough to leave them in the porch or still in the letter box

It was one of the first things I was taught about local campaigning

For all party activists I suspect

Pulpstar said:

Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem

Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...

Andy_Cooke said:

[snip]
which gives away that it's simply an attempt to have an excuse to rationalise "But they're BADDIES!"

Really good post.
I would add that the failure to agree on what Brexit should look like is a function of the hollowness of the mandate, combined with the failure of the Conservative & Unionist Party to reach out to all parties to build a Brexit consensus.

I've said it before many times, but it needs repeating. The Brexit process on the UK side should have been a consensual, collaborative process. Instead it was treated as a knockout tournament.
The trouble with knockout politics, is that the discarded losers tend to pile up in coalition of the dissatisfied. And the baseline was 48%, the Remainers. Added to those have now been those who always wanted a soft Brexit, then those who wanted a parliamentary process to do Brexit, then those who weren't fussed about the type of Brexit there should be but became worried by the incoherence of the red lines, then finally those who wanted to prevent the most damaging of all, a no deal Brexit.
As these groups have been systematically eliminated, they have formed a substantial majority of the country, glowering on the sidelines, dissatisfied at what is going on. And still the shrill cries comes from inside the shrinking citadel that those who have been cast out of the city are somehow betraying it.

The fundamental misunderstanding of the hardcore is that politics is about having a battle, and the losers of that battle then silently accepting the dominion of the victors forever. They are confused and angry that people outside this marrow of the pure still want to have an input. Those who think in these terms are wrong. You can't run anything on that basis. It is a fundamentally undemocratic mindset.
Your best bet is to stop throwing the impure from the battlements and to start inviting people back in. Start with those who still want Brexit but think it needs to be done a little less madly. Then keep going until you have a majority again. Be nicer to those you partially agree with.
You're never going to win me over, but there are people here with me outwith the walls who could be your allies if only you learned that the world doesn't belong to one man. Learn to listen more to those who offer friendly but critical comments. Otherwise, that coalition of the dissatisfied might solidify into a coalition of the get-these-wankers-out.

DecrepitJohnL said:

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

2010 was done quite slowly and deliberately, but that was a case where it was at least somewhat possible that the sitting PM might end up being the one to form a government. You don't necessarily need to wait until a coalition agreement is all but signed.

For an alternative what you need to do is get the leadership of the necessary groups to agree to back you. That's it: You have a reasonable chance of being able to form a government, and this get communicated to the palace. And the said groups know that they can back you now and withdraw their support later, so that's not such a high hurdle, once you get beyond Corbyn's stance that it should automatically be him.

What is true is that Corbyn has an effective veto on anybody else, so if he can credibly claim that he'll veto anyone else and leave Boris there, he may be able to force them to go with him. But I think the election that followed him doing that would work out not necessarily to his advantage...

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

...

If he abstains then no new PM will be appointed as without Labour frontbencher votes for Clarke, Becketl election

I didn't say Labour MPs will abstain. Just the cabal.

Without the cabal voting for a new PM then there will likely fail to be a majority for a new PM to replace Boris as it needs comfortably over 300 votes to elect that new PM, thus forcing a general election 14 days after Boris loses a VONC

If the rabble don’t have their ducks in a row before Johnson resigns, then Corbyn will be first in line, and he will be no-confidenced immediately, which will start the 14-day clock running.

So does that mean we could go through 5 PMs in a fortnight say eg Boris, Corbyn, Beckett, Clarke and Bercow who each lose a VONC straighgone through PMs that quick!

Good question. One would assume that it’s bad form to get Her Majesty involved, but Corbyn isn’t known for his respect for the royal family.

I think it goes:
1. Johnson resigns immediately, calls for whoever is in the most likely position to form a government. In the absence of a clear candidate, LotO first in line
2. JC asked to form a government, is immediately voted down by LotO Johnson calling a vote of confidence - this starts the clock.
3. Everyone starts arguing, while Corbyn tries to do as much as possible before he’s forced to resign.
4. Either a clear PM candidate emerges, or we go into an election 14 days after the first VoNC vote, whether that was in Johnson or Corbyn. Whoever is PM at this point remains so for the duration of the campaign under purdah rules.

Complicating things is the letter to be written to the EU, which may also lead Corbyn to resign immediately to avoid signing it (in which case everyone needs to decide very quickly who’s next in line at that point). In that case we get at least three PMs in only a couple of days.

If Corbyn signs an extension letter straight away then he likely stays PM through a GE campaign after losing a VONC but at the cost of risking gifting Labour Leave seats to the Tories and Brexit Party.

If Corbyn does not sign the extension letter he loses a VONC and a new PM signs the extension letter and stays PM after a GE is voted for under the FTPA post extension for the duration of the GE campaign

Yes, agreed.

SouthamObserver said:

Gardenwalker said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1178228991829905408

Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.

Sexual predator?
Steady on.
He’s just a shagger. The world is full of them and is no shortage of ladies who seem to appreciate them.

Sure, he’s betrayed his wife and family multiple times, hence for example why it’s said his children with Marina Wheeler won’t speak to him any more, but that’s different from being a “predator”.

Read the Charlotte Edwardes column in today’s Sunday Times.

It’s behind a paywall, so I can’t.
Something about wandering hands?
I still don’t think that makes him a “predator”.

oldpolitics said:

Pulpstar said:

edmundintokyo said:

Although I panned the idea of a Corbyn mini-me it occurs to me that you have to think about Team Corbyn's moves in the context of the Labour succession.

If Corbyn can say, OK, I know other parties have reservations about me but I could support X, then X becomes PM whether of a GoNAfaE or a GNU, that person is then a shoo-in for next Labour leader. So they move into Number 10, Corbyn resigns, Team Corbyn has just regenerated with another 10 years in charge of Labour, and also better propects for the GE.

I think this is why Ma Beckett is such hot stuff in the betting markets. You need someone with no obvious ambition. Corbyn will be wary of someone like Starmer, much more likely to use the PM platform to launch a reverse Labour takeover.

Ann Clwyd, Geoffrey Robinson are another couple of options. Age really helps ones cause here.

It'll be ironic, won't it, after the sound and fury of Boris becoming PM without an election, if those from whom the sound and fury was coming install someone entirely unexpected as PM, specifically in order to prevent Boris facing an election.

It is not in order to stop Boris facing an election. Don't fall for that Number 10 spin. It is to stop Boris setting the election date in November when we are set to leave the EU at the end of October.

Boris Johnson has been accused of squeezing a journalist’s thigh beneath the table at a private lunch — and doing the same to the woman sitting on his other side.

Charlotte Edwardes reveals today how the prime minister put his hand “high” up her leg and had “enough inner flesh beneath his fingers” to make her “sit suddenly upright”.

Afterwards she confided in the young woman sitting on Johnson’s left, who replied: “Oh God, he did exactly the same to me.” Edwardes dubbed the prime minister “the double thigh-squeezer”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/my-inner-thigh-was-squeezed-so-high-up-i-flinched-boris-of-course-xmkn3xjwn

Looking for my understanding to be corrected here but...


1. The government only needs to provide time for a VoNC motion if it comes from the LoTo. Motions can come from other members but the government isn't required to provide time.

2. Why would Corbyn and his team agree to being passed over in the negotiations obviously on going at the moment?

3. A GE post extension exposes Labour's impossible Brexit position to the electorate, it will not survive.

4. A GE post withdrawal allows the debate to move on to much stronger Corbyn domestic ground with a chance of him winning.


Which for me means that both Boris and Corbyn would like to see Brexit done before a GE which leads me to think he will order MP's to wait to see the deal brought back where he will 'reluctantly for the sake of the country' whip his MP's to vote it through.

Pulpstar said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Pulpstar said:

Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem

As LBJ said, first learn to count. However tempting is a grandee, there needs to be a mechanism to get them into Number 10, and generally there is none. The bookies settle on who is next prime minister, not who is the best prime minister we never had, 2019 edition.

Well yes I have shaped my book for Corbyn next PM but I'm willing to accept I might be wrong. Ken Clarke, Swinson and Starmer are some lays in my book. Noone senior, old, not obviously ambitious and Labour

The most logical candidate might be Theresa May but that is politically impossible!

spudgfsh said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem

Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...

no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.

Not if he resigns with immediate effect, to avoid signing the EU letter. He can’t be held as PM against his wishes.

If the VoNC is next week then yes, you’re right.

Recidivist said:

Why not have Ian Blackford as interim PM?

It would be better for it to be someone elected as a Conservative. They were the largest party after the 2017 election.

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

2010 was done quite slowly and deliberately, but that was a case where it was at least somewhat possible that the sitting PM might end up being the one to form a government. You don't necessarily need to wait until a coalition agreement is all but signed.

For an alternative what you need to do is get the leadership of the necessary groups to agree to back you. That's it: You have a reasonable chance of being able to form a government, and this get communicated to the palace. And the said groups know that they can back you now and withdraw their support later, so that's not such a high hurdle, once you get beyond Corbyn's stance that it should automatically be him.

What is true is that Corbyn has an effective veto on anybody else, so if he can credibly claim that he'll veto anyone else and leave Boris there, he may be able to force them to go with him. But I think the election that followed him doing that would work out not necessarily to his advantage...

If there's talk of Bercow being given the ability to ask for an extension, that could solve the issue. During that 14 days period, Bercow extends and the election will occur post 31st but before brexit.

Corbyn will not want to be seen as responsible for no deal, so if a Labour figure like Beckett is put up after him it will be difficult to say no. He could perhaps get away with saying no to any former tory or LD ("tories are evil etc") but if voting for a different (non blairite) Labour member was the only option left to stop no deal, can't see how he can justify voting against. He won't be thanked by the members for that.

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

2010 was done quite slowly and deliberately, but that was a case where it was at least somewhat possible that the sitting PM might end up being the one to form a government. You don't necessarily need to wait until a coalition agreement is all but signed.

For an alternative what you need to do is get the leadership of the necessary groups to agree to back you. That's it: You have a reasonable chance of being able to form a government, and this get communicated to the palace. And the said groups know that they can back you now and withdraw their support later, so that's not such a high hurdle, once you get beyond Corbyn's stance that it should automatically be him.

What is true is that Corbyn has an effective veto on anybody else, so if he can credibly claim that he'll veto anyone else and leave Boris there, he may be able to force them to go with him. But I think the election that followed him doing that would work out not necessarily to his advantage...

Yes, I think that is right, so a Labour minority government, headed by Corbyn (or someone of whom Corbyn approves) that will immediately extend and call an election. Ironically, it will need to be VONC'd to call the election!

Scott_P said:

Boris Johnson has been accused of squeezing a journalist’s thigh beneath the table at a private lunch — and doing the same to the woman sitting on his other side.

Charlotte Edwardes reveals today how the prime minister put his hand “high” up her leg and had “enough inner flesh beneath his fingers” to make her “sit suddenly upright”.

Afterwards she confided in the young woman sitting on Johnson’s left, who replied: “Oh God, he did exactly the same to me.” Edwardes dubbed the prime minister “the double thigh-squeezer”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/my-inner-thigh-was-squeezed-so-high-up-i-flinched-boris-of-course-xmkn3xjwn

but how big is the iceberg? is it an icecube floating on the top where this is the worst of what has happened or is it a full on titanic sinker where we don't know the details of the worst of what's happened?

No-one knows the answer to that but in the post Jimmy and post #metoo world we live in, someone else will come forward if there is more to know. if this is the worst of it he'll do a trump and survive.

spudgfsh said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem

Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...

no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.

I'm sure that's not correct. A vote of confidence is in a government, and you can't form a government until you've been named Prime Minister, after which you pick a cabinet.

You can choose a Prime Minister without any parliamentary voting at all; The palace take "soundings" and if it looks someone is best-placed to get a majority, they get asked to try. At that point the old PM is gone, and the new PM is PM until their replacement is found (which may involve an election), even if they lose their first vote of confidence.

The wrinkle here is that usually the Queen takes the advice of the outgoing PM, but the outgoing PM is a known liar who has threatened to abuse the process. So it might be that he plays silly buggers, and it takes an explicit vote in parliament to make it clear that yes, not only do we not have confidence in Boris, we would have confidence in X, if you would be so kind as to choose them.

solarflare said:

For shits and giggles.

If the remain alliance are looking for some temporary PM to align around just long enough to get an extension and then call an election they why not (drum roll) PM Blackford.

...

I'm sure there's plenty of reasons for everyone to hate the idea, but...OK, neeeeeeever gonna happen, but still.

He would issue a section 30 notice instantly, before extending Article 50, and we'd have another IndyRef.

Not convinced that Swinson would go for that.

edmundintokyo said:

noneoftheabove said:

spudgfsh said:

edmundintokyo said:

spudgfsh said:

could they go as far as not having a cabinet? The current tory ministers would resign so you can't do continuation

Hmm, maybe you're right. But doesn't the new PM usually do that on their first day? So there must be a period when the PM has changed, but the cabinet posts are either vacant or still filled by their previous occupants. (I guess the latter.)

If it really needs doing fast, the quick way is to appoint the Select Committee chairs to their respective ministries, then you just need to slot in a few choices for where they're Tories who won't take the job.

I think that there needs to be ministers of each ministry just to deal with any emergencies which happen during the election. the ministries will run themselves by and by with little outside input. it would be messy.

It is a peculiarity of British politics that we think a random MP who has never worked in Transport can suddenly become Secretary of State for Transport and would somehow improve the department. It seems patently obvious that a civil servant would be better equipped to run the transport department for a month under purdah rules than an MP.

It's not just Britain. In Japan they just picked an IT Minister who doesn't know how to use a computer. Not only that, he chairs the association of personal seal makers - this is a ferociously powerful lobby that has been systematically squishing attempts to adopt digital signatures.

Wow, that’s an interesting choice. Surely the best Japanese IT Minister would be Satoshi Nakamoto?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1178229514628931584

OblitusSumMe said:

solarflare said:

For shits and giggles.

If the remain alliance are looking for some temporary PM to align around just long enough to get an extension and then call an election they why not (drum roll) PM Blackford.

...

I'm sure there's plenty of reasons for everyone to hate the idea, but...OK, neeeeeeever gonna happen, but still.

He would issue a section 30 notice instantly, before extending Article 50, and we'd have another IndyRef.

Not convinced that Swinson would go for that.

However without Brexit, especially No Deal, Yes would have near zero chance of winning indyref2 anyway

Wales beat Australia

nichomar said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

2010 was done quite slowly and deliberately, but that was a case where it was at least somewhat possible that the sitting PM might end up being the one to form a government. You don't necessarily need to wait until a coalition agreement is all but signed.

For an alternative what you need to do is get the leadership of the necessary groups to agree to back you. That's it: You have a reasonable chance of being able to form a government, and this get communicated to the palace. And the said groups know that they can back you now and withdraw their support later, so that's not such a high hurdle, once you get beyond Corbyn's stance that it should automatically be him.

What is true is that Corbyn has an effective veto on anybody else, so if he can credibly claim that he'll veto anyone else and leave Boris there, he may be able to force them to go with him. But I think the election that followed him doing that would work out not necessarily to his advantage...

Yes, I think that is right, so a Labour minority government, headed by Corbyn (or someone of whom Corbyn approves) that will immediately extend and call an election. Ironically, it will need to be VONC'd to call the election!

Who would vote against an election to stop the 2/3 hurdle being crossed?

I think the way to look at it is do 2/3 MPs think there is something in it for them for an election to go ahead.

Say the polls go to Tories 40 Labour 20 LD 18 after the letter as not enough people approve then the Lab-LD-SNP grouping would probably find a way to keep the govt spinning on.

If the reverse happens and we get Lab 28 Tories 22 BXP 19 then the Tories might block the election.

In the most likely scenario around the current poll numbers, there is probably enough in it for everyone to get to the election as soon as the extension is sealed.

OblitusSumMe said:

solarflare said:

For shits and giggles.

If the remain alliance are looking for some temporary PM to align around just long enough to get an extension and then call an election they why not (drum roll) PM Blackford.

...

I'm sure there's plenty of reasons for everyone to hate the idea, but...OK, neeeeeeever gonna happen, but still.

He would issue a section 30 notice instantly, before extending Article 50, and we'd have another IndyRef.

Not convinced that Swinson would go for that.

Well, there is a mandate for that after the most recent Holyrood elections.

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1178228991829905408

Our Prime Minister is a sexual predator who has routinely mistreated and betrayed women as easily as he has lied to friends, colleagues, employers and voters throughout his adult life. His behaviour in Parliament and elsewhere should always be seen in that light.

Sounds like John Major

‪Johnson’s entire pitch is “Trust Me”, when he has proved time and time again - in his personal, professional and public life - that he cannot be trusted.‬

Didn’t know that was his pitch. But your previous description of him could be applied to Major

Lechyd Da .....

spudgfsh said:

Scott_P said:

Boris Johnson has been accused of squeezing a journalist’s thigh beneath the table at a private lunch — and doing the same to the woman sitting on his other side.

Charlotte Edwardes reveals today how the prime minister put his hand “high” up her leg and had “enough inner flesh beneath his fingers” to make her “sit suddenly upright”.

Afterwards she confided in the young woman sitting on Johnson’s left, who replied: “Oh God, he did exactly the same to me.” Edwardes dubbed the prime minister “the double thigh-squeezer”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/my-inner-thigh-was-squeezed-so-high-up-i-flinched-boris-of-course-xmkn3xjwn

but how big is the iceberg? is it an icecube floating on the top where this is the worst of what has happened or is it a full on titanic sinker where we don't know the details of the worst of what's happened?

No-one knows the answer to that but in the post Jimmy and post #metoo world we live in, someone else will come forward if there is more to know. if this is the worst of it he'll do a trump and survive.

icebergs are always larger below the surface. Icecubes don't float on top of water.

Johnson lying. Surely not!
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1178244167283216385?s=21

spudgfsh said:

edmundintokyo said:

spudgfsh said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Does anyone else find themselves arguing Corbyn would be next PM, thinking for a second then flipping back to a grandee. It's a blue/white dress problem

Corbyn would be next PM - with a grandee as next-but-one PM, only a few days later...

no, that's not how it will work. BJ will be PM until there is someone who actually passes a vote of confidence. He can resign all he likes but he will remain PM until there is a successor.

I'm sure that's not correct. A vote of confidence is in a government, and you can't form a government until you've been named Prime Minister, after which you pick a cabinet.

You can choose a Prime Minister without any parliamentary voting at all; The palace take "soundings" and if it looks someone is best-placed to get a majority, they get asked to try. At that point the old PM is gone, and the new PM is PM until their replacement is found (which may involve an election), even if they lose their first vote of confidence.

The wrinkle here is that usually the Queen takes the advice of the outgoing PM, but the outgoing PM is a known liar who has threatened to abuse the process. So it might take an explicit vote in parliament to make it clear that yes, not only do we not have confidence in Boris, we would have confidence in X, if you would be so kind as to choose them.

what happens if BJ refuses to name a successor?

The Queen will invite Corbyn to the Palace. I can't see why she would do anything else.

Corbyn tells Queen to send for Ken/Marge etc etc.

noneoftheabove said:

nichomar said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

After a VONC we'd be back in 2010 territory. Boris would remain prime minister until an alternative emerged, and the only viable alternatives are minority Labour or Conservative governments. It is not credible to form a coalition based on current numbers, especially against a ticking clock.

And that clock matters. If no alternative emerged within 14 days, Boris would call an election which would occur after Brexit, so if the LibDems, SNP and even Tory Remainers want to keep us in the EU, they really do have only days to hold their noses for Labour and Corbyn (unless they can negotiate in a couple of days that Corbyn will step aside for another Labour PM).

2010 was done quite slowly and deliberately, but that was a case where it was at least somewhat possible that the sitting PM might end up being the one to form a government. You don't necessarily need to wait until a coalition agreement is all but signed.

For an alternative what you need to do is get the leadership of the necessary groups to agree to back you. That's it: You have a reasonable chance of being able to form a government, and this get communicated to the palace. And the said groups know that they can back you now and withdraw their support later, so that's not such a high hurdle, once you get beyond Corbyn's stance that it should automatically be him.

What is true is that Corbyn has an effective veto on anybody else, so if he can credibly claim that he'll veto anyone else and leave Boris there, he may be able to force them to go with him. But I think the election that followed him doing that would work out not necessarily to his advantage...

Yes, I think that is right, so a Labour minority government, headed by Corbyn (or someone of whom Corbyn approves) that will immediately extend and call an election. Ironically, it will need to be VONC'd to call the election!

Who would vote against an election to stop the 2/3 hurdle being crossed?

I think the way to look at it is do 2/3 MPs think there is something in it for them for an election to go ahead.

Say the polls go to Tories 40 Labour 20 LD 18 after the letter as not enough people approve then the Lab-LD-SNP grouping would probably find a way to keep the govt spinning on.

If the reverse happens and we get Lab 28 Tories 22 BXP 19 then the Tories might block the election.

In the most likely scenario around the current poll numbers, there is probably enough in it for everyone to get to the election as soon as the extension is sealed.

That is what I was implying would happen and no confidence rout would not be needed.

williamglenn said:

BBC in regurgitating Number 10 spin shock.

https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1178244167283216385?s=21

One of the not-new hospitals is Whipps Cross, where Boris met that Labour activist whose daughter was a patient, and where he crassly said there were no press.