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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first full poll after Swinson’s Brexit gamble sees the LDs
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first full poll after Swinson’s Brexit gamble sees the LDs up 4 ahead of LAB into second place
There is a new YouGov poll in the Times this morning which is the first one to have taken place since the Lib Dems at their conference voted to stop Brexit even without a referendum.
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Boris, Cummings and CCHQ will no doubt be commissioning more detailed private polls to work out where the LibDem resurgence threatens Tory or Labour constituencies. This might be crucial in a snap election.
The former Tory prime minister, whose lawyers will intervene at the Supreme Court, has said in written submissions that Mr Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament was “unlawful”.
He argued that Mr Johnson’s justification for prorogation to bring forward a new legislative programme “makes no sense and cannot be the true explanation”. In a clear suggestion that Mr Johnson should not be believed, Sir John wrote that it would be “artificially naive” for the court to accept the prime minister’s stated reasons for the prorogation.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-battle-johnson-acted-like-a-dishonest-estate-agent-major-to-tell-court-7p7z7263r
They seem to be the polar opposite of meritocratic, same as inheritance tax I guess.
These are pretty immense sums, and they couldn't really promise to spend them if they were planning on leaving things up to the voters, especially if they're hoping to pick up some fiscal-prudence-motivated ex-Cons made homeless by the Tories turning to fuck-everything don't-tax-just-spend Trumpism.
They are private institutions which in their own right do no harm personally.
The harm comes from their relative performance compared to the state sector
2) Basic freedom to educate your kids how you like, as long as you're not training them up to do something very socially harmful, like joining the Taliban or becoming PM and wrecking the country with a stupid referendum
3) Some private schools are good schools, and the replacements may be bad, and it doesn't sound ethical to break good schools
They should also start rehearsing Nick Clegg's apology of "it seemed obvious to me we weren't going to be the largest party and would have to compromise on our manifesto".
Silly.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/17/trump-billingslea-torture-human-rights-228112
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/labour-to-review-language-of-tony-blairs-clause-iv-reform
"Speaking to reporters Wednesday night, following TIME’s publication of the photo, Trudeau apologized: “I shouldn’t have done that. I should have known better and I didn’t. I’m really sorry.” When asked if he thought the photograph was racist, he said, “Yes it was. I didn’t consider it racist at the time, but now we know better.”
As I said on a previous thread, Swinson seems to be saying she would VoNC Corbyn as PM. If that's the case, I know several family members who won't vote LD, because for them it's all about beating the Tories.
They thought they'd voted for PR, against trident, against tuition fees. Actually they'd voted for a softer Tory govt. I'm probably just being irritable though it's true.
We cannot know what coalitions are possible until we see how the seats wind up.
But more importantly the clear message of conference is Jo Swinson is good enough. I wasn't sure she was but she clearly is. She's had a strong start.
http://archive.is/vYmHZ
A softer tory government was certainly better then a full tory government. Unfortunately the LDs in government started to actively support Conservative policies in the name of "collective agreement".
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/18/theyve-run-off-with-our-goods-anger-at-albemarle-bond-hq
But, in an election campaign where he’s the front runner, it’s simply far too tempting a target for his political opponents to let pass.
If only Jack's ARSE could produce...
However, I do think commentariat have misread this. Beyond a small group of very political people, there has never been a big clamour for a second referendum. The clamour is for closure, not more months of politicking. Johnson's No Deal seems, falsely, to offer this whereas in fact it's just the absence of a deal - years more messing about beckon. Swinson's approach ends it with the stroke of a pen.
5) By offering higher salaries and better conditions they create choice for teachers and education workers, and more education jobs.
6) The sum total of having very good private schools to society is a net benefit as the vast majority will enter the UK workforce; a good number will become industry and sector leaders and earn the Exchequer lots of money in taxes.
7) They are good for brand UK plc (several are world renowned) with overseas students and their families contributing to our economy as opposed to someone else’s.
https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/boeing-737-max-investigation-indonesia-lion-air-ethiopian-airlines-managerial-revolution
However the revoke policy hasn’t come under sustained attack which you might see in a general election .
I think the messaging around Revoke will be important , it’s the only way to end the chaos etc.
The Lib Dems need to order the bus , start printing the t shirts aswell !
I think Vote To Revoke is a simple message and could catch on.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-signals-possible-compromise-to-facilitate-brexit-deal-1.4022816
And last night's poll would give the Tories an adequate majority to do just that. The EU can now see that trying to keep us in long term is a forlorn hope. The rules of the game have changed. They might as well let us go now, rather than have 3, 5, 10 years waiting for it to happen.
That is what Jo Swinson has done. Thank you, Jo.
I wish we had someone with half his articulacy today.
And he loved talking about it at great length
I think the Lib Dem position this time round is that they will hold out for what they believe in as a condition of any support for any putative minority government, rather than enabling one or other of Labour or the Tories through coalition.
Seems fair enough to me.
Various interventions and crucially Lord Pannick is the last speaker .
At this point I’d say its impossible to call re the lawfulness of the decision however in terms of justiciable I’d put that as a much better chance as it’s hard to see the court giving a blank check to a future PM .
What the revoke position has done in my opinion is make it more likely for green votes to be squeezed to the LDs and not Labour as it was always assumed would be the case.. Makes labour's job even harder.
The Tories will be looking at the 14% for TBP and thinking, push comes to shove, we'll have some of that, but where do Labour look?
Will be fun to see the Labour conference play out. Nicely set up for internal screaming rows after the ousting of the students with a single motion to roll back Clause 4 given massive coverage thanks to the absurd mishandling of it by the party. And thats before they get to Brexit. The new Corbyn position is even more absurd than the previous one - not only is he still insisting the EU will give him unicorn cake but now he expects they will do so knowing that he then won't endorse said cake in a referendum.
And then after the Labour conference we get the Tory conference, where I expect its going to resemble a combination of Alan B'Stard ranting at the lectern with the entire set falling down behind Boris as he rambles on clueless about anything with cutaways to various glowering people in the audience.
It really is in the best interests of everyone that we don't get a general election this year. It will be *chaos*
Even among those who’d speak up for a deal because Will Of The People, I suspect a fair few will feel like handing Boris and Jezza their arses on a plate when they get in the polling booth.
I’m not sure it’s a sustainable long-term policy any more than a hard Brexit, but given where they are, people’s selfishness and the fact they won’t get a majority anyway, it feels like decent white space to pitch their caravan.
For the giggles.
* A random but impressive number.
Why can't he just be honest and respect the rules?
It does feel like all of the banks are about to give each other a very wide berth.
Arlene Foster told the Dublin chamber of commerce yesterday that the DUP would consider supporting “Northern Ireland specific” clauses in a Brexit deal “if it has the consent of the residents of Northern Ireland”
However it wouldn’t stop me voting tactically for the Lib Dems , my worries about it being a proper mandate are overcome by my aversion to a no deal . I will vote Labour to oust the Tory and Lib Dem to do the same .
1. Deselecting Labour MPs.
2. Purging moderate affiliated groups.
3. Enabling and whitewashing anti-Semitism.
4. Facilitating far-left supporters of Brexit.
5. Protecting friends of the leader.
6. Rewriting Clause 4.
The genuine surprise is that Labour is still polling as high as it is. My view is that the party may have one more chance - post-Corbyn - to engage with voters. If the next leader also comes from the far-left, the party’s over.
Why would the LDs risk the chance of having their own true candidate be victorious in order to support people who by their very actions can be guaranteed to be loyal and who haven't even joined the LDs like some of the others have
Johnson is reportedly swaying between one and the other.
Along with the (reportedly) developing feuds with Javid and Truss, it might conceivably be an interesting Tory conference for a change.
We’re not pawns to be allocated to Tractor Factory No5 by some faceless man in Whitehall