politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Johnson is to fight a successful election campaign he needs
Comments
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There's certainly an argument to be made for calling it fictitious. Anyone can invent an algorithm and bend poll results through it. I think the EC will need to act.Foxy said:
The graphic credits the Flavible projection from Yougovegg said:HYUFD said:Right on cue, Cities of London and Westminster LDs have a bar chart out
https://twitter.com/grahphil/status/1174447464654495745?s=20
Is it illegal to publish fictitious polling?0 -
Nope. Which is why I never get excited by polling these daysegg said:
Will we get that Before the actual GE day?oxfordsimon said:
When all posters show consistent results and a sustained period of real change - backed up by real votes.egg said:
From which date does the long experience teach to get excited by polls again, Nick?NickPalmer said:
Long experience has taught us not to get too excited by conference polls...Gallowgate said:
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.Byronic said:0 -
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.0 -
Nah, Lib Dems would immediately just switch to Rejoin. Many remainers are totally committed now, and won't endure any form of Brexit.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
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ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).0
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Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11MarqueeMark said:
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.Gallowgate said:
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.Byronic said:
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"EU will help us make up our mind by setting a firm date"
"Labour might help pass a deal"
It's the old classics!0 -
Is that you complaining?egg said:
I’m still getting blow job every time someone’s posts BJ.The_Taxman said:
Not looking good for BJ!HYUFD said:
How could having a 4 point lead be worse for the Tories than coming THIRD?SouthamObserver said:
That looks like nonsense. If true, though, it would be worse for the Tories than Labour.Anabobazina said:
For what little it is worth, it’s been reported on Twitter as 30/26/25 - quite probably bollocks of course...TheScreamingEagles said:The figures go up on the Times website by around 00.15 but I'm knackered so I'm not sure if I'll be awake to publish the figures.
His bounce has burst. He has flopped...0 -
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.MarqueeMark said:
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
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Thornberry and Watson both losing their seats.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11MarqueeMark said:
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.Gallowgate said:
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.Byronic said:0 -
The LD's could legitimately point out that if the 16m+ remainers backed them at a GE then it would enough to win power...at that or any other GE.MarqueeMark said:
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
The Tories platform will be obvious regarding the EU.
Labour on the other will be having a challenging time reconciling their internal differences before they can formulate a post-Brexit position.
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Agreed. This is an historic and secular shift. The prize of being Britain's main centre-left party is up for grabs.RandallFlagg said:
Nah, Lib Dems would immediately just switch to Rejoin. Many remainers are totally committed now, and won't endure any form of Brexit.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
For another example of how this works, see how Ireland is still governed by parties shaped during the Easter Rising and the Civil War.
Also, Israel.0 -
There will be plenty of attempts at left wing populism - smash the public schools, bring back Clause 4, all bankers are evil - that sort of thingkle4 said:ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
We already know that a lot of former Labour members who have been removed for their antisemitic views are going to be very present at Fringe events. So I am imagining that will be a flashpoint - once again.0 -
Sure, but most remainers must worry that would take a very long time or they'd be more sanguine about leaving in the first place, they have the youth vote and all that.RandallFlagg said:
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.MarqueeMark said:
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.0 -
I’m going with a fringe meeting where a Corbyn ally promises to ban Christmas. Or spoons. Or they argue for the redistribution of garden sheds. Dunno - but it’ll be something silly, and the issue will the time it takes for Corbyn and co to react.kle4 said:ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
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The last couple of Labour conferences have been triumphalism and Hubris.kle4 said:ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
The leadership thought it good idea last year to drape Palestinian flags over every Jewish member.
Whilst some MPs called for general strike to bring the government down, the leadership claimed the country was in love with their nationalise everything manifesto, and boasted about using brexit turmoil to ensure a general election.
It’s highly possible labour will poll even worse at the end of their conference than at the start.0 -
I think that the SW would still be a hard sell for the LibDems on a Revoke ticket. Baxter is generous to them, harsh on the Tories.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11MarqueeMark said:
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.Gallowgate said:
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.Byronic said:
But yes, the West Midlands/East Midlands looking horrible for Labour.0 -
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Aye. Unless we have a 2nd ref very soon, it will be twenty-forty years before we have another EU ref, if ever.kle4 said:
Sure, but most remainers must worry that would take a very long time or they'd be more sanguine about leaving in the first place, they have the youth vote and all that.RandallFlagg said:
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.MarqueeMark said:
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
This is the pattern. These things - grand constitutional plebiscites - seem constantly on the verge of happening, but national nervous systems cannot sustain them, and the stars have to be exquisitely aligned for them to be allowed.
Look at Quebec Independence. One vote was badly lost, a second narrowly lost 15 years later, so you'd expect there to be a third vote very soon... yet no. Didn't happen.
Ultra Scot Nats are right to demand that Sturgeon calls a vote very soon. Because, if she doesn't, the will to have one will dissipate, and it may be decades.0 -
Have we had the YouGov figures yet?0
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I'm not disagreeing with you, but I think that politics in Ireland has been blighted by that legacy.Byronic said:
Agreed. This is an historic and secular shift. The prize of being Britain's main centre-left party is up for grabs.RandallFlagg said:
Nah, Lib Dems would immediately just switch to Rejoin. Many remainers are totally committed now, and won't endure any form of Brexit.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
For another example of how this works, see how Ireland is still governed by parties shaped during the Easter Rising and the Civil War.
Also, Israel.
It might be too late for us now, but I think we'll come to regret this change in our politics.0 -
Need to take 10 off the Tory total and add 10 onto the SNP total.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11MarqueeMark said:
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.Gallowgate said:
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.Byronic said:0 -
They won’t cock-up. Probably. But they’ll still be operating in the Brexit bubble. There’s no oxygen for anything else, despite both Tories and Labour trying to move things on a bit.ab195 said:If that’s half accurate, Labour really need to not cock up next week.... The Tory fate seems linked to Brexit, but it’s all to play for with the other two.
The danger for Labour and the vociferous Labour remainers is when Brexit is done, one way or another. Firstly we’ll be a country sick to the back teeth of politicians - their promises, their schemes and games and promises. When it’s done I’m sure the country will just want a long deserved group holiday. To be able to switch on the news and see some other country tearing itself apart. Go back to being normal.
The big batttleship guns currently aimed and firing at Brexit, the lawyers, maverick MP’s, big business, the “liberal” media will fall silent. Labour may find themselves their new target if forced nationalisation, property confiscation, huge tax rises ever see the light of day.
For a population wanting calm after Brexit (or not) a “socialist revolution” may be something people really can’t take. Or want.
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So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.0 -
Huge if true. But it's not on YG's Twitter feed and their website is giving me the 404.Byronic said:0 -
Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)
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Just half of those who backed Labour in the 2017 election are sticking with the party, with a quarter going to the Lib Dems and a further 9 per cent backing the Brexit Party. The boost for the Lib Dems is fuelled by support among Remainers, with 41 per cent of those who voted against Brexit in 2016 backing the party, up eight points in a week.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)0 -
My 2 cents on the hospital issue, while the issues raised by the gentlemen were perfectly legitimate and not negated by him being an activist, I do think the fact that he is an activist is an important part of the story and unfortunately does mean he will have less credibility. It's like on Question Time, you get some member of the public ripping into a politician saying "we should just do no deal, you're talking Britain down" etc, it goes viral and then the next day its revealed that the member of the public is actually a Councillor or similar for the Conservatives. Doesn't negate their argument but there is a bit of a "well you would say that, wouldnt you" that dents their credibility.
As for Boris, he didn't handle the encounter smoothly but I don't see it damaging him. I don't think people will be blaming Boris personally for NHS issues yet, he's been PM for 57 days and hasnt been talking the language of austerity.1 -
Bxp is still so high and Boris hasn't even failed yet, which is a high probability given him, the EU and this parliament.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)0 -
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
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This feels big to me. Dunno why. Look at that Green figure. Hmm.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)
IF we are copying Scotland then Labour are TOSTADA!
Please let it be true. Get rid of these awful, lying, anti-Semitic Marxist wankers.0 -
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.0 -
Half!TheScreamingEagles said:
Just half of those who backed Labour in the 2017 election are sticking with the party, with a quarter going to the Lib Dems and a further 9 per cent backing the Brexit Party. The boost for the Lib Dems is fuelled by support among Remainers, with 41 per cent of those who voted against Brexit in 2016 backing the party, up eight points in a week.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)
Wow.0 -
Can the LDs keep up the momentum and move into first place? Possibly, especially if the Supreme Court ruling goes against Johnson.0
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So the summary position on the likely outcome of the next election is “who the f### knows, there’s too many unknown unknowns”.
Though the 300-1 on a LibDem majority is surely due to come in at some stage. Especially once there’s some tv debates.0 -
The Labour party is dissolving, in real time. Fabulous.0
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Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.0 -
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.0 -
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?0 -
46% it seems.Gallowgate said:0 -
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+1kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.0 -
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
"their floor is high"kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.0 -
Flavible:
Con 334
Lab 174
LD 70
SNP 47
PC 4
BRX 2
Grn 1
https://flavible.com/politics/map/user_predictions.php0 -
Yes, I'd call that a high floor, 20% is terrible for them but it's still maintains a surprising number of seats.Byronic said:
"their floor is high"kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
And in any case my hypothesis, wrong or not, is they will do a better because their brand is still strong.0 -
We need to understand WHERE these 50% of Labour voters that are no longer saying will vote Labour are. It wont be uniform.
Are they in Tory seats? Are they in traditional Labour heartlands? Are they in university cities? Are they in London?0 -
I will probably be spoiling my ballot this time but will vote for the Rejoin party after that.MarqueeMark said:
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.0 -
You are almost certainly right, but I do just wonder. If next week is fringe silliness and wibbling on a referendum, with no other big retail policy; and then Boris has a good conference (the rebels can’t go now remember) then I dunno. The LibDems get to criticise both and Labour risks being nothing.kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.0 -
First Gentleman OTUS which would match with First Lady rather than First Womanegg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
Well, I can recall the times (about twenty-nine weeks ago) when Labour's floor was estimated to be 28-30%, and we all thought that was dire.kle4 said:
Yes, I'd call that a high floor, 20% is terrible for them but it's still maintains a surprising number of seats.Byronic said:
"their floor is high"kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
21%????
At that level, there is no floor. Brexit is such a shake-up, it could destroy any party as a serious contender for government (as, again, happened to Labour in Scotland, a party entirely dominant even 15 years ago, now largely irrelevant)
The Tories will be worried, and rightly. But Labour should be TERRIFIED.0 -
Are they still there in polling from other firms?Gallowgate said:We need to understand WHERE these 50% of Labour voters that are no longer saying will vote Labour are. It wont be uniform.
Are they in Tory seats? Are they in traditional Labour heartlands? Are they in university cities? Are they in London?0 -
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
I don't know what the right verdict is legally but I hope parliament comes back pretty soon, was more entertaining than guido fawkes witch hunts being the main topic of conversation.0
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O/T
Tomorrow morning (or later this morning) will be John Humphrys' final Today programme as a presenter. He started in 1987.0 -
Byronic said:
Red Len and the other Union big beasts threatened Ed with all sorts for not being consistently ten points ahead in the polls you recall.
Well...0 -
Warren would be great. We are still in the populist moment and she is a genuine populist, been fighting the good cause for years. And unlike Sanders or Corbyn, she is smart and knows how to create policies that actually work.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.0 -
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.0 -
Maybe it’ll be the “Matrix” election as far as Brexit is concerned. Take the blue pill or (in this case) the yellow pill. Morpheus has a red pill. If you want. Sort of Brexity like the blue pill but you’ll have to go back to the Matrix to negotiate your way out. You might win. Might not. And afterwards no matter what happens you’ll have your house nicked. And your pension.Byronic said:
"their floor is high"kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.0 -
All the talk here is of picking someone electable to make sure Trump is beaten.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.0 -
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.Drutt said:Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.0 -
No one goes for VEEP. A veep is something that nods on a dashboard.Gabs2 said:
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
That is an awfully big couldGabs2 said:
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.Drutt said:Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.0 -
You do if you are an ambitious progressive Democrat from Indiana, who knows a statewide office is impossible. Veep 2020-2028 is a nice springboard for the Presidency in 2029.egg said:
No one goes for VEEP. A veep is something that nods on a dashboard.Gabs2 said:
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
Candace Owensisam said:
Ben Carson
Floyd Mayweather
Hotep Jesus
Zuby
Oh wait wait, not thooooooose people of colour.
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL. It's happening.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)0 -
This is perfectly possible.Gabs2 said:
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.Drutt said:Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.0 -
Cammo might have thought of that before he pressed the button marked “do not press this button”OblitusSumMe said:
I'm not disagreeing with you, but I think that politics in Ireland has been blighted by that legacy.Byronic said:
Agreed. This is an historic and secular shift. The prize of being Britain's main centre-left party is up for grabs.RandallFlagg said:
Nah, Lib Dems would immediately just switch to Rejoin. Many remainers are totally committed now, and won't endure any form of Brexit.Byronic said:
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
For another example of how this works, see how Ireland is still governed by parties shaped during the Easter Rising and the Civil War.
Also, Israel.
It might be too late for us now, but I think we'll come to regret this change in our politics.0 -
This is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/britain-will-aim-for-freedom-of-movement-deal-with-australia
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
I would have thought the opposite - voting for Brexit to happen could be to Labour MPs what voting for tuition fees was for the Lib Dems. It would be seen as a betrayal to vote for a Tory Brexit.CaptainBuzzkill said:Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Exactly right. The one thing (most) Labour members and voters won’t want to see is a Brexit helped across the line by their own MPs.0 -
Australia won’t want that. They manage their policy to direct immigrants away from Sydney and Melbourne, and won’t sign up to unrestricted free movement.Andy_JS said:This is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/britain-will-aim-for-freedom-of-movement-deal-with-australia
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."1 -
First Gentlemanegg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?0 -
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
0 -
Many Labour MPs are best served with Brexit being done and dusted before a GE.IanB2 said:
Exactly right. The one thing (most) Labour members and voters won’t want to see is a Brexit helped across the line by their own MPs.
Their careers depend on it.
0 -
You'd need another ten-point swing from Lab to LD for an LD minority govt. Anything less Baxters out at Con Maj or Con min. UNS klaxon applies. Nonetheless, if it's up there, I'll give you the money myself.Byronic said:
This is perfectly possible.Gabs2 said:
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.Drutt said:Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.0 -
Good LD numbers but everybody take a deep breath, remember Philippe Magnan0
-
Conservatives gain seats like Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Bridgend, Dagenham and Rainham, Enfield Southgate, Gower, Penistone and Stockbridge and Stoke on Trent Central and North and Wrexham on those numbers from Labour but lose Cambridgeshire South, Cheltenham, Colchester, Guildford, Lewes, St Albans, Wimbledon and Winchester to the LDs.Byronic said:
Labour also lose Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Cambridge, Hornsey and Wood Green, Sheffield Hallam and Vauxhall to the LDs and Bristol West to the Greens.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=23&LIB=21&Brexit=14&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.TheJezziah said:
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.0 -
What's wrong with taking an average of the polls?0
-
I don't take the figures as sacrosanct, just a ballpark figure...ab195 said:
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.TheJezziah said:
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
My arguments for averaging are that one of the polls is usually right (very close) and the rest varying levels of wrong. If I want complete accuracy I disregard everything, If I want some rough figure then even a bunch of polls where the only correct polls are an outlier on the very edge are still more accurate averaged than complete guesswork.
If I chose one pollster or came up with some method for disregarding some pollsters I could get lucky and be more accurate than an average but equally I could be less lucky. So rather than try to apply any guesswork to pollsters reliability which could take me even further away from the right answer I stick with a almost always wrong but never as far off as some polls mean average.
The changes (if shown across multiple polls/pollsters) and reasoning is more interesting/relevant but if we want to know where the parties stand at a particular moment polls are the best of a bad bunch.0 -
Yes, but you missed out the bit about somebody else being responsible for it.CaptainBuzzkill said:
Many Labour MPs are best served with Brexit being done and dusted before a GE.IanB2 said:
Exactly right. The one thing (most) Labour members and voters won’t want to see is a Brexit helped across the line by their own MPs.
Their careers depend on it.0 -
Did he die in vain?edmundintokyo said:Good LD numbers but everybody take a deep breath, remember Philippe Magnan
0 -
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.Byronic said:
Wow!HYUFD said:
Confirmed, disaster for Corbyn, seems Swinson's gamble has paid offTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dems overtake Labour in a poll on the front of tomorrow's Times
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1174444940572680193?s=201 -
If he wins Iowa, he will be going for the nomination.Gabs2 said:
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?
(And I would point out he outrasied Warren two-to-one last quarter.)0 -
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.ab195 said:
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.TheJezziah said:
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.0 -
He sustained a deep penetrating Cleggasm, then disappeared, never to be seen againrcs1000 said:
Did he die in vain?edmundintokyo said:Good LD numbers but everybody take a deep breath, remember Philippe Magnan
0 -
That, and you have to understand how the sampling worked. Apples/oranges. They are trying to measure the same thing, but the thing is hard to measure or even sample.IanB2 said:Andy_JS said:What's wrong with taking an average of the polls?
Nothing, provided you are not claiming any increased accuracy.0 -
Gabs2 said:
You do if you are an ambitious progressive Democrat from Indiana, who knows a statewide office is impossible. Veep 2020-2028 is a nice springboard for the Presidency in 2029.egg said:
No one goes for VEEP. A veep is something that nods on a dashboard.Gabs2 said:
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?
They have essentially unrestricted free movement with NZ already. I could see a deal with the UK being struck.IanB2 said:
Australia won’t want that. They manage their policy to direct immigrants away from Sydney and Melbourne, and won’t sign up to unrestricted free movement.Andy_JS said:This is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/britain-will-aim-for-freedom-of-movement-deal-with-australia
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."0 -
The original discussion came from a party (Labour) being at a certain percentage of support, if you were trying to figure that out rather than movement then either you average them all or you have some system for discounting certain pollsters or promoting others.viewcode said:
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.ab195 said:
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.TheJezziah said:
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
I don't like YouGov's figures but that really doesn't seem a good reason to discount them, pollsters seem to easily switch from having a great election to having a terrible one so picking a pollster that did well last time or avoiding one that did badly last time could easily make it worse. Basically I can't come up with any good method for picking and choosing between pollsters so if asked for a figure of support my best guess would be average of latest polls by different companies.
Although the levels of support can easily change in an election campaign anyway....0 -
Jo Swinson is now third favourite to be next PM with Betfair, behind Jeremy Corbyn and Ken Clarke.0
-
It all does depend what you’re using it for, but I have a simple brain and I think if it like this:TheJezziah said:
The original discussion came from a party (Labour) being at a certain percentage of support, if you were trying to figure that out rather than movement then either you average them all or you have some system for discounting certain pollsters or promoting others.viewcode said:
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.ab195 said:
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.TheJezziah said:
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.Byronic said:How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
I don't like YouGov's figures but that really doesn't seem a good reason to discount them, pollsters seem to easily switch from having a great election to having a terrible one so picking a pollster that did well last time or avoiding one that did badly last time could easily make it worse. Basically I can't come up with any good method for picking and choosing between pollsters so if asked for a figure of support my best guess would be average of latest polls by different companies.
Although the levels of support can easily change in an election campaign anyway....
Suppose Party A is “really” at 40%. One poll has them at 40% and one at 20%.
Averaging to 30% doesn’t tell you a lot, though it limits you being as wrong as you could be if you just took the 20%.
On balance though, I think the better question is why there is a 20pt spread.
That’s a silly example but some of the variance we are seeing is, I think, too high to allow averages to make sense. All you’re doing is obscuring the anomalies.0 -
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.KentRising said:
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.Byronic said:
Wow!HYUFD said:
Confirmed, disaster for Corbyn, seems Swinson's gamble has paid offTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dems overtake Labour in a poll on the front of tomorrow's Times
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1174444940572680193?s=20
Labour and the Tories were given a warning shot by voters in the European Parliament elections, the Tories listened and replaced May with Boris and a clear Leave Deal or No Deal policy to win back Brexit Party voters. Labour did not listen and stuck with Corbyn and now the LDs have advanced yet further at their expense on a clear Remain platform.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing0 -
Yeah but Warren is not taking super PAC money or doing fundraisers at rich people'a houses. All the Wall Street money is going to Buttigieg and Kamala.rcs1000 said:
If he wins Iowa, he will be going for the nomination.Gabs2 said:
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.egg said:
What will it make his husband?rcs1000 said:
Pete Buttigieg.oxfordsimon said:
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.rcs1000 said:So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
First Man OTUS ?
(And I would point out he outrasied Warren two-to-one last quarter.)0 -
HYUFD said:
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.KentRising said:
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.Byronic said:
Wow!HYUFD said:
Confirmed, disaster for Corbyn, seems Swinson's gamble has paid offTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dems overtake Labour in a poll on the front of tomorrow's Times
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1174444940572680193?s=20
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing
Labour were down to 22% in the 2010 GE campaign but by polling day they achieved 29% in the ballot box. The Tories are flat at just over 30%. Hardly a commanding position and worse than TM. How embarrasing for Boris to be trailing behind her in comparison. Changing leadership offers the chance to reach out to voters, Johnson seems to be sticking two fingers at viable potential voters and is instead trying to target voters who will never vote Tory...HYUFD said:
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.KentRising said:
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.Byronic said:
Wow!HYUFD said:
Confirmed, disaster for Corbyn, seems Swinson's gamble has paid offTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dems overtake Labour in a poll on the front of tomorrow's Times
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1174444940572680193?s=20
Labour and the Tories were given a warning shot by voters in the European Parliament elections, the Tories listened and replaced May with Boris and a clear Leave Deal or No Deal policy to win back Brexit Party voters. Labour did not listen and stuck with Corbyn and now the LDs have advanced yet further at their expense on a clear Remain platform.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing0 -
Back in late May and much of June Yougov had Labour on 18%Byronic said:
Well, I can recall the times (about twenty-nine weeks ago) when Labour's floor was estimated to be 28-30%, and we all thought that was dire.kle4 said:
Yes, I'd call that a high floor, 20% is terrible for them but it's still maintains a surprising number of seats.Byronic said:
"their floor is high"kle4 said:
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.CaptainBuzzkill said:
That makes distressing reading for Labour.viewcode said:
Mr Baxter agrees with you: click here for the projection at 32/21/23/11
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
21%????
At that level, there is no floor. Brexit is such a shake-up, it could destroy any party as a serious contender for government (as, again, happened to Labour in Scotland, a party entirely dominant even 15 years ago, now largely irrelevant)
The Tories will be worried, and rightly. But Labour should be TERRIFIED.0
