The graphic credits the Flavible projection from Yougov
There's certainly an argument to be made for calling it fictitious. Anyone can invent an algorithm and bend poll results through it. I think the EC will need to act.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
The LD's could legitimately point out that if the 16m+ remainers backed them at a GE then it would enough to win power...at that or any other GE.
The Tories platform will be obvious regarding the EU.
Labour on the other will be having a challenging time reconciling their internal differences before they can formulate a post-Brexit position.
ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
There will be plenty of attempts at left wing populism - smash the public schools, bring back Clause 4, all bankers are evil - that sort of thing
We already know that a lot of former Labour members who have been removed for their antisemitic views are going to be very present at Fringe events. So I am imagining that will be a flashpoint - once again.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.
Sure, but most remainers must worry that would take a very long time or they'd be more sanguine about leaving in the first place, they have the youth vote and all that.
ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
I’m going with a fringe meeting where a Corbyn ally promises to ban Christmas. Or spoons. Or they argue for the redistribution of garden sheds. Dunno - but it’ll be something silly, and the issue will the time it takes for Corbyn and co to react.
ab195 raises a crucial point - what are the potential cock ups for Labour at the conference? They're getting a promise to let people campaign to remain after a weaksauce renegotiation, is there any split on the issue left worth quibbling about? Are there other issues that will show major division? (I won't say split the party, those that are still there are clearly going nowhere).
The last couple of Labour conferences have been triumphalism and Hubris.
The leadership thought it good idea last year to drape Palestinian flags over every Jewish member.
Whilst some MPs called for general strike to bring the government down, the leadership claimed the country was in love with their nationalise everything manifesto, and boasted about using brexit turmoil to ensure a general election.
It’s highly possible labour will poll even worse at the end of their conference than at the start.
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
People said the same about the ERG's obsession about Europe once upon a time, and look what happened. Remain/Rejoin isn't going away. We might leave, and it might take a while, but there'll be another referendum on our relationship with Europe at some point.
Sure, but most remainers must worry that would take a very long time or they'd be more sanguine about leaving in the first place, they have the youth vote and all that.
Aye. Unless we have a 2nd ref very soon, it will be twenty-forty years before we have another EU ref, if ever.
This is the pattern. These things - grand constitutional plebiscites - seem constantly on the verge of happening, but national nervous systems cannot sustain them, and the stars have to be exquisitely aligned for them to be allowed.
Look at Quebec Independence. One vote was badly lost, a second narrowly lost 15 years later, so you'd expect there to be a third vote very soon... yet no. Didn't happen.
Ultra Scot Nats are right to demand that Sturgeon calls a vote very soon. Because, if she doesn't, the will to have one will dissipate, and it may be decades.
If that is true... What is the Labour floor? Surely they can’t go much lower than that.
Probably great news for the Tories - LibDems stripping support from safe Labour city central seats, and the Tories savaging Labour in places like Coventry and Wolverhampton. Maybe even a raft of Birmingham seats come into play for the blues with Labour that low.
If that’s half accurate, Labour really need to not cock up next week.... The Tory fate seems linked to Brexit, but it’s all to play for with the other two.
They won’t cock-up. Probably. But they’ll still be operating in the Brexit bubble. There’s no oxygen for anything else, despite both Tories and Labour trying to move things on a bit.
The danger for Labour and the vociferous Labour remainers is when Brexit is done, one way or another. Firstly we’ll be a country sick to the back teeth of politicians - their promises, their schemes and games and promises. When it’s done I’m sure the country will just want a long deserved group holiday. To be able to switch on the news and see some other country tearing itself apart. Go back to being normal.
The big batttleship guns currently aimed and firing at Brexit, the lawyers, maverick MP’s, big business, the “liberal” media will fall silent. Labour may find themselves their new target if forced nationalisation, property confiscation, huge tax rises ever see the light of day.
For a population wanting calm after Brexit (or not) a “socialist revolution” may be something people really can’t take. Or want.
Just half of those who backed Labour in the 2017 election are sticking with the party, with a quarter going to the Lib Dems and a further 9 per cent backing the Brexit Party. The boost for the Lib Dems is fuelled by support among Remainers, with 41 per cent of those who voted against Brexit in 2016 backing the party, up eight points in a week.
My 2 cents on the hospital issue, while the issues raised by the gentlemen were perfectly legitimate and not negated by him being an activist, I do think the fact that he is an activist is an important part of the story and unfortunately does mean he will have less credibility. It's like on Question Time, you get some member of the public ripping into a politician saying "we should just do no deal, you're talking Britain down" etc, it goes viral and then the next day its revealed that the member of the public is actually a Councillor or similar for the Conservatives. Doesn't negate their argument but there is a bit of a "well you would say that, wouldnt you" that dents their credibility.
As for Boris, he didn't handle the encounter smoothly but I don't see it damaging him. I don't think people will be blaming Boris personally for NHS issues yet, he's been PM for 57 days and hasnt been talking the language of austerity.
Just half of those who backed Labour in the 2017 election are sticking with the party, with a quarter going to the Lib Dems and a further 9 per cent backing the Brexit Party. The boost for the Lib Dems is fuelled by support among Remainers, with 41 per cent of those who voted against Brexit in 2016 backing the party, up eight points in a week.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
Yes. Good point. Polls like this make a Deal more likely, as Labour MPs become terrified of the Libs.
That would push the LibDems into being the party of Rejoin by the next election - a niche position Labour might be happy to gift them. Because by Christmas, anyone still banging on about Brexit is likely to be ignored.
I will probably be spoiling my ballot this time but will vote for the Rejoin party after that.
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
You are almost certainly right, but I do just wonder. If next week is fringe silliness and wibbling on a referendum, with no other big retail policy; and then Boris has a good conference (the rebels can’t go now remember) then I dunno. The LibDems get to criticise both and Labour risks being nothing.
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
"their floor is high"
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
Yes, I'd call that a high floor, 20% is terrible for them but it's still maintains a surprising number of seats.
Well, I can recall the times (about twenty-nine weeks ago) when Labour's floor was estimated to be 28-30%, and we all thought that was dire.
21%????
At that level, there is no floor. Brexit is such a shake-up, it could destroy any party as a serious contender for government (as, again, happened to Labour in Scotland, a party entirely dominant even 15 years ago, now largely irrelevant)
The Tories will be worried, and rightly. But Labour should be TERRIFIED.
I don't know what the right verdict is legally but I hope parliament comes back pretty soon, was more entertaining than guido fawkes witch hunts being the main topic of conversation.
So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
Warren would be great. We are still in the populist moment and she is a genuine populist, been fighting the good cause for years. And unlike Sanders or Corbyn, she is smart and knows how to create policies that actually work.
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
"their floor is high"
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
Maybe it’ll be the “Matrix” election as far as Brexit is concerned. Take the blue pill or (in this case) the yellow pill. Morpheus has a red pill. If you want. Sort of Brexity like the blue pill but you’ll have to go back to the Matrix to negotiate your way out. You might win. Might not. And afterwards no matter what happens you’ll have your house nicked. And your pension.
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.
So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
Pete Buttigieg.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
What will it make his husband?
First Man OTUS ?
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.
No one goes for VEEP. A veep is something that nods on a dashboard.
You do if you are an ambitious progressive Democrat from Indiana, who knows a statewide office is impossible. Veep 2020-2028 is a nice springboard for the Presidency in 2029.
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.
Would vulnerable Labour MPs not be more motivated to pass a WA brought back pre-31/10 if polling like the one rumoured is correct?
If Brexit can be killed off as live issue pre-GE then they will surely calculate that there is a better chance of seeing LD switchers returning.
I would have thought the opposite - voting for Brexit to happen could be to Labour MPs what voting for tuition fees was for the Lib Dems. It would be seen as a betrayal to vote for a Tory Brexit.
Exactly right. The one thing (most) Labour members and voters won’t want to see is a Brexit helped across the line by their own MPs.
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."
Australia won’t want that. They manage their policy to direct immigrants away from Sydney and Melbourne, and won’t sign up to unrestricted free movement.
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
Such a division of Remainer voter intention between LD and Lab would lead to a 50-odd Con majority. In number 10, the PM's team of advisors celebrate their manoeuvring of the opposition with vintage champagne.
Classic Dom.
Don't get ahead of yourself too soon. With the Lib Dems in front, unencumbered by Labour's bigots, Remain voters could flock to them and they overtake the Tories.
This is perfectly possible.
You'd need another ten-point swing from Lab to LD for an LD minority govt. Anything less Baxters out at Con Maj or Con min. UNS klaxon applies. Nonetheless, if it's up there, I'll give you the money myself.
Conservatives gain seats like Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Bridgend, Dagenham and Rainham, Enfield Southgate, Gower, Penistone and Stockbridge and Stoke on Trent Central and North and Wrexham on those numbers from Labour but lose Cambridgeshire South, Cheltenham, Colchester, Guildford, Lewes, St Albans, Wimbledon and Winchester to the LDs.
Labour also lose Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Cambridge, Hornsey and Wood Green, Sheffield Hallam and Vauxhall to the LDs and Bristol West to the Greens.
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.
I don't take the figures as sacrosanct, just a ballpark figure...
My arguments for averaging are that one of the polls is usually right (very close) and the rest varying levels of wrong. If I want complete accuracy I disregard everything, If I want some rough figure then even a bunch of polls where the only correct polls are an outlier on the very edge are still more accurate averaged than complete guesswork.
If I chose one pollster or came up with some method for disregarding some pollsters I could get lucky and be more accurate than an average but equally I could be less lucky. So rather than try to apply any guesswork to pollsters reliability which could take me even further away from the right answer I stick with a almost always wrong but never as far off as some polls mean average.
The changes (if shown across multiple polls/pollsters) and reasoning is more interesting/relevant but if we want to know where the parties stand at a particular moment polls are the best of a bad bunch.
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.
Nothing, provided you are not claiming any increased accuracy.
That, and you have to understand how the sampling worked. Apples/oranges. They are trying to measure the same thing, but the thing is hard to measure or even sample.
So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
Pete Buttigieg.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
What will it make his husband?
First Man OTUS ?
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.
No one goes for VEEP. A veep is something that nods on a dashboard.
You do if you are an ambitious progressive Democrat from Indiana, who knows a statewide office is impossible. Veep 2020-2028 is a nice springboard for the Presidency in 2029.
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."
Australia won’t want that. They manage their policy to direct immigrants away from Sydney and Melbourne, and won’t sign up to unrestricted free movement.
They have essentially unrestricted free movement with NZ already. I could see a deal with the UK being struck.
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.
The original discussion came from a party (Labour) being at a certain percentage of support, if you were trying to figure that out rather than movement then either you average them all or you have some system for discounting certain pollsters or promoting others.
I don't like YouGov's figures but that really doesn't seem a good reason to discount them, pollsters seem to easily switch from having a great election to having a terrible one so picking a pollster that did well last time or avoiding one that did badly last time could easily make it worse. Basically I can't come up with any good method for picking and choosing between pollsters so if asked for a figure of support my best guess would be average of latest polls by different companies.
Although the levels of support can easily change in an election campaign anyway....
How low can Labour go before Corbyn is challenged (again).
18%? 16%?
Non YouGov polls would be needed, in the same way many partisans on the right ignore polls that aren't YouGov (e.g. Fiona Bruce) many partisans on the left ignore polls that are YouGov.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
The one thing I’d argue you shouldn’t do is average polls. Note and observe the differences? Absolutely. Try to explain it and/or disregard some? Yes. But don’t average.
There was a discussion on here about averaging polls. I belong to the "don't average between *different* polls" camp, since the movement caused by house effects may be interpreted as an actual movement. Instead, I look at the movement between the same polls.
The original discussion came from a party (Labour) being at a certain percentage of support, if you were trying to figure that out rather than movement then either you average them all or you have some system for discounting certain pollsters or promoting others.
I don't like YouGov's figures but that really doesn't seem a good reason to discount them, pollsters seem to easily switch from having a great election to having a terrible one so picking a pollster that did well last time or avoiding one that did badly last time could easily make it worse. Basically I can't come up with any good method for picking and choosing between pollsters so if asked for a figure of support my best guess would be average of latest polls by different companies.
Although the levels of support can easily change in an election campaign anyway....
It all does depend what you’re using it for, but I have a simple brain and I think if it like this:
Suppose Party A is “really” at 40%. One poll has them at 40% and one at 20%.
Averaging to 30% doesn’t tell you a lot, though it limits you being as wrong as you could be if you just took the 20%.
On balance though, I think the better question is why there is a 20pt spread.
That’s a silly example but some of the variance we are seeing is, I think, too high to allow averages to make sense. All you’re doing is obscuring the anomalies.
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.
Labour and the Tories were given a warning shot by voters in the European Parliament elections, the Tories listened and replaced May with Boris and a clear Leave Deal or No Deal policy to win back Brexit Party voters. Labour did not listen and stuck with Corbyn and now the LDs have advanced yet further at their expense on a clear Remain platform.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing
So, two new Iowa polls out today. They both show a similar pattern:
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
Warren would be so the wrong choice. She isn't the personality to bring people together.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
Pete Buttigieg.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
What will it make his husband?
First Man OTUS ?
First Gentleman is the obvious equivalent to First Lady. But I think Buttigieg is going for VP. He would balance Warren nicely.
If he wins Iowa, he will be going for the nomination.
(And I would point out he outrasied Warren two-to-one last quarter.)
Yeah but Warren is not taking super PAC money or doing fundraisers at rich people'a houses. All the Wall Street money is going to Buttigieg and Kamala.
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing
Am I missing something here? The Lib Dems are in the middle of their conference (or is it over, I haven't a clue), a modest poll bounce was not unlikely to happen, as we will.see with Labour during theirs and maybe the Tories during theirs. All a bit yawn really.
Labour plunging to just 21% with Yougov tonight, 6% less than even Foot got in 1983 and collapsing to third place behind the Tories and LDs is not yawn territory it is potential realignment territory.
Labour and the Tories were given a warning shot by voters in the European Parliament elections, the Tories listened and replaced May with Boris and a clear Leave Deal or No Deal policy to win back Brexit Party voters. Labour did not listen and stuck with Corbyn and now the LDs have advanced yet further at their expense on a clear Remain platform.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing
Labour were down to 22% in the 2010 GE campaign but by polling day they achieved 29% in the ballot box. The Tories are flat at just over 30%. Hardly a commanding position and worse than TM. How embarrasing for Boris to be trailing behind her in comparison. Changing leadership offers the chance to reach out to voters, Johnson seems to be sticking two fingers at viable potential voters and is instead trying to target voters who will never vote Tory...
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
Labours brand is strong, their floor high, and the voting system encourages tacticals in their favour.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
"their floor is high"
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
Yes, I'd call that a high floor, 20% is terrible for them but it's still maintains a surprising number of seats.
Well, I can recall the times (about twenty-nine weeks ago) when Labour's floor was estimated to be 28-30%, and we all thought that was dire.
21%????
At that level, there is no floor. Brexit is such a shake-up, it could destroy any party as a serious contender for government (as, again, happened to Labour in Scotland, a party entirely dominant even 15 years ago, now largely irrelevant)
The Tories will be worried, and rightly. But Labour should be TERRIFIED.
Back in late May and much of June Yougov had Labour on 18%
Comments
"Labour might help pass a deal"
It's the old classics!
The Tories platform will be obvious regarding the EU.
Labour on the other will be having a challenging time reconciling their internal differences before they can formulate a post-Brexit position.
For another example of how this works, see how Ireland is still governed by parties shaped during the Easter Rising and the Civil War.
Also, Israel.
We already know that a lot of former Labour members who have been removed for their antisemitic views are going to be very present at Fringe events. So I am imagining that will be a flashpoint - once again.
The leadership thought it good idea last year to drape Palestinian flags over every Jewish member.
Whilst some MPs called for general strike to bring the government down, the leadership claimed the country was in love with their nationalise everything manifesto, and boasted about using brexit turmoil to ensure a general election.
It’s highly possible labour will poll even worse at the end of their conference than at the start.
But yes, the West Midlands/East Midlands looking horrible for Labour.
This is the pattern. These things - grand constitutional plebiscites - seem constantly on the verge of happening, but national nervous systems cannot sustain them, and the stars have to be exquisitely aligned for them to be allowed.
Look at Quebec Independence. One vote was badly lost, a second narrowly lost 15 years later, so you'd expect there to be a third vote very soon... yet no. Didn't happen.
Ultra Scot Nats are right to demand that Sturgeon calls a vote very soon. Because, if she doesn't, the will to have one will dissipate, and it may be decades.
It might be too late for us now, but I think we'll come to regret this change in our politics.
The danger for Labour and the vociferous Labour remainers is when Brexit is done, one way or another. Firstly we’ll be a country sick to the back teeth of politicians - their promises, their schemes and games and promises. When it’s done I’m sure the country will just want a long deserved group holiday. To be able to switch on the news and see some other country tearing itself apart. Go back to being normal.
The big batttleship guns currently aimed and firing at Brexit, the lawyers, maverick MP’s, big business, the “liberal” media will fall silent. Labour may find themselves their new target if forced nationalisation, property confiscation, huge tax rises ever see the light of day.
For a population wanting calm after Brexit (or not) a “socialist revolution” may be something people really can’t take. Or want.
LD 25
Lab 21
BRX 15
Flaghable is Swinson deputy PM to Boris in coalition MK2.
Biden and Warren are in front, and in the low to mid-20s.
Buttigieg is in the mid-teens.
One has Sanders in the teens; the other has Sanders on just 9%. Everyone else is single digit.
I think Buttigieg wins Iowa, temporarily tops the Democrat betting polls, but that Warren ends up with the nomination.
Buy Buttigieg as a trading bet.
YouGov
Con 32 (nc)
LD 23 (+4)
Lab 21 (-2)
BXP 14 (nc)
Green 4 (-3)
As for Boris, he didn't handle the encounter smoothly but I don't see it damaging him. I don't think people will be blaming Boris personally for NHS issues yet, he's been PM for 57 days and hasnt been talking the language of austerity.
Not that I believe that sort of result is at all likely at a GE even if this poll turns out to be correct.
Although I don't know why I don't believe it is possible.
IF we are copying Scotland then Labour are TOSTADA!
Please let it be true. Get rid of these awful, lying, anti-Semitic Marxist wankers.
There are so many poor candidates in that field, it is hard to see one who is interesting, appealing and convincing.
Wow.
Though the 300-1 on a LibDem majority is surely due to come in at some stage. Especially once there’s some tv debates.
It might not be so this time, but theres reason behind being instinctively wary of predicting their doom.
He led fundraising last quarter. He's tier one in Iowa.
A good result there (which he's probably going to get) will take him from 20-1 to 3-1. And if he wins Iowa, maybe he's the next POTUS.
18%? 16%?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1174460457081548802?s=20
First Man OTUS ?
Labour have literally just recorded 21% and 3rd place in a national, non-EU poll.
Con 334
Lab 174
LD 70
SNP 47
PC 4
BRX 2
Grn 1
https://flavible.com/politics/map/user_predictions.php
And in any case my hypothesis, wrong or not, is they will do a better because their brand is still strong.
Are they in Tory seats? Are they in traditional Labour heartlands? Are they in university cities? Are they in London?
21%????
At that level, there is no floor. Brexit is such a shake-up, it could destroy any party as a serious contender for government (as, again, happened to Labour in Scotland, a party entirely dominant even 15 years ago, now largely irrelevant)
The Tories will be worried, and rightly. But Labour should be TERRIFIED.
Tomorrow morning (or later this morning) will be John Humphrys' final Today programme as a presenter. He started in 1987.
Red Len and the other Union big beasts threatened Ed with all sorts for not being consistently ten points ahead in the polls you recall.
Well...
Classic Dom.
Ben Carson
Floyd Mayweather
Hotep Jesus
Zuby
Oh wait wait, not thooooooose people of colour. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL. It's happening.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/britain-will-aim-for-freedom-of-movement-deal-with-australia
"Britain will aim for freedom of movement deal with Australia
The proposal, which would allow British citizens to live and work in Australia visa-free, and vice-versa, was part of ongoing trade talks, she said."
Exactly right. The one thing (most) Labour members and voters won’t want to see is a Brexit helped across the line by their own MPs.
I tend to prefer the average of different pollsters as otherwise I'm picking and choosing what I like. I think that would have Labour maybe around 8-9% behind currently, before Johnson breaks his deadline promise (possibly) and whilst he could still be argued to either be in a honeymoon or the after effects of one. Given that, most Labour people would rather concentrate on beating Johnson. It isn't as if those attacking the party/leadership when we probably have an election coming soon are going to get much credit for it from Labour members who like Johnson about as much as you like Corbyn.
Their careers depend on it.
Labour also lose Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Cambridge, Hornsey and Wood Green, Sheffield Hallam and Vauxhall to the LDs and Bristol West to the Greens.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=23&LIB=21&Brexit=14&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
My arguments for averaging are that one of the polls is usually right (very close) and the rest varying levels of wrong. If I want complete accuracy I disregard everything, If I want some rough figure then even a bunch of polls where the only correct polls are an outlier on the very edge are still more accurate averaged than complete guesswork.
If I chose one pollster or came up with some method for disregarding some pollsters I could get lucky and be more accurate than an average but equally I could be less lucky. So rather than try to apply any guesswork to pollsters reliability which could take me even further away from the right answer I stick with a almost always wrong but never as far off as some polls mean average.
The changes (if shown across multiple polls/pollsters) and reasoning is more interesting/relevant but if we want to know where the parties stand at a particular moment polls are the best of a bad bunch.
Nothing, provided you are not claiming any increased accuracy.
(And I would point out he outrasied Warren two-to-one last quarter.)
I don't like YouGov's figures but that really doesn't seem a good reason to discount them, pollsters seem to easily switch from having a great election to having a terrible one so picking a pollster that did well last time or avoiding one that did badly last time could easily make it worse. Basically I can't come up with any good method for picking and choosing between pollsters so if asked for a figure of support my best guess would be average of latest polls by different companies.
Although the levels of support can easily change in an election campaign anyway....
Suppose Party A is “really” at 40%. One poll has them at 40% and one at 20%.
Averaging to 30% doesn’t tell you a lot, though it limits you being as wrong as you could be if you just took the 20%.
On balance though, I think the better question is why there is a 20pt spread.
That’s a silly example but some of the variance we are seeing is, I think, too high to allow averages to make sense. All you’re doing is obscuring the anomalies.
Labour and the Tories were given a warning shot by voters in the European Parliament elections, the Tories listened and replaced May with Boris and a clear Leave Deal or No Deal policy to win back Brexit Party voters. Labour did not listen and stuck with Corbyn and now the LDs have advanced yet further at their expense on a clear Remain platform.
Tonight Labour is staring into the abyss and the complacency of some Labour supporters is absolutely astonishing