Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next general election vote shares by party betting

12467

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Cyclefree said:

    Why is everyone being so bad-tempered?

    People are allowed to have different views, wear badges etc without being assaulted.

    That tweet with Farage in the sights of a gun is appalling. I can't stand the man but no-one should be sending stuff like that out.

    People who do that sort of thing while obviously considering themselves so morally superior to their opponents are among the worst type of hypocrites.
  • So the Brexiters can blame the 1707 Act of Union
    Elite politicians getting us into a superstate without a mandate from the people!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Quite, the ERG have had it far too easy far too long. And one of them is my MP.
    The great thing is how they justify their rebellions whilst condemning those of others. Pretty hilarious.
  • tlg86 said:

    Does it need spelling out? Politicians in this country who seem very keen on our membership of the EU are also extremely keen on visible diversity.
    (With apologies for repeating a point I made last night...)

    The whole reason the ethnic or other make-up of the Commission can't easily be 'fixed' is because they are 27(ish!) individuals, all appointed by independent sovereign governments with no-one telling them who to appoint.

    If I was a Brexiteer, I probably wouldn't spaff on about this for too long
  • Byronic said:

    Not indulging your infantile and pedantic wankery any more. Next.
    The response of someone who is rattled and knows he's lost
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Yes, I remember him. IIRC he was only briefly ukip as he stood as an independent who was opposed to something in the following GE. It might have been opposition to building on greenbelt?
    Castle Point, my one-time stamping ground. Spink came to Castle Point after the retirement of the late Sir Bernard Braine, an old-style Conservative who was one of those who blew up the Falklands deal that the Thatcher government was sorting out with the Argentines. Spink was sold locally as someone who had indeed pulled himself up by his bootstraps, having gone, by various steps including RAF service, from a Sec Mod school to a PhD.
    However, he turned out to be somewhat abrasive and managed to grossly offend a significant section of the Tory Ladies Committee on Canvey Island, who refused to work for him, and consequently he lost a previously safe seat in 1997. It was one of the major surprises.
    Mended his fences in 2001 and won back the seat In 2005 he fought the seat as a Tory but he managed to quarrel again with the Tory Party bigwigs, both locally and in Parliament and became UKIP. He then fell out with them and became an Indie, 'Saving our Green Belt' and lost his seat.
    In 2016 he stood for Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex as UKIP candidate, coming second.
    in 2018 he was done for electoral fraud......, deceiving people into signing nomination forms...... and he's currently on a suspended sentence
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited September 2019
    justin124 said:

    Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
    Hence their ability to mouth off and be their own mini party without consequences.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108
    algarkirk said:

    The more judges the more judgements, including those in the dissenting minority (which is not unlikely, as there was in the Article 50 case). Comparing majority and dissenting judgements is of great interest in big cases to the lawyers/academics in the field. Big cases of this sort are rare, so it is Christmas and birthday all rolled into one for some academic lawyers. Brexit is a gift which keeps on giving in many fields. (And it will enable some poor starving QCs and their instructing solicitors to stave off the bailiffs for another week and put a pound coin in their flickering gas meters).

    Very funny . Great post .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108
    I expect the ERG will cave and support any deal now .

    A general election is no guarantee that they’ll ever get Brexit .
  • Indeed.

    If the EU do offer something better to the UK than May's Surrender Agreement, it will only be if they still consider that in the absence of a new offer there will be a significantly increased risk that the UK will otherwise leave without having signed up to a comprehensive deal at that point. That is the outcome they fear whether it happens before or after 31st October.

    The potential for Johnson to get us out in such a scenario by 31st October has clearly been all but removed by the actions of parliament and so weakened the UK's position greatly. However, the EU may still be worried that if they do not offer Johnson anything, he will be able to win a VONC in Corbyn within days of Corbyn becoming PM, after which Johnson could win a working majority in parliament that would make his threat real at a later date of 31st December or whenever.

    The chances of Johnson gaining a working majority, assuming that the EU offers nothing more of substance, is I suggest no more than about 1 in 3 at the moment. The EU's assessment may be different but will change with the opinion polls, so I don't think they will offer anything quite yet. Will a 1 in 3 risk to the EU be enough for Johnson to bring something back at the 11th hour?
    Yes Parliament has properly sabotaged the talks though Boris does have one other thing going for him in that the EU want this finished with. As DavidL rightly points out this dragging on isn't good for us, but its not good for them too.

    Plus the date was chosen for a reason, 1 November is the start of a new term with a new Commission [which we will need a Commissioner for if we're still a member]. Getting us out cleanly now will be better for them than kicking the can for another three months which could just result in nothing other than another can kick or a no deal anyway after an election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    kle4 said:

    Hence their ability to mouth off and be their own mini party without consequences.
    I don't think they've voted against Johnson yet. Under May discipline was far too lax tbh she should have dewhipped plenty on her first MV defeat.
  • justin124 said:

    Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
    The SNP might also cease to be the 3rd largest.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    The SNP might also cease to be the 3rd largest.
    Might not be if many more MP's join the LibDems!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Who is the third? (Reckless, Carswell...... are we counting Bill Cash from a few years ago when it wasn't clear what his status was?)
    Wasn’t there Bob Spink or someone years ago when he was fired by the Tories?
  • That will be the quid pro quo for Boris removing the whip from the 21. Sauce for the goose and all that. And if No Deal really is the only alternative, they will cut lonely figures in the division lobby. For what?

    Nah, Baker apart, they'll probably see if they can stay members if they just abstain. To be told no.

    I know most on here think I'm just talking bollocks, but I see a scenario where:

    1. Boris gets a one-minute-to-midnight deal with the heads of the 27 (Barnier having been cut adrift). To get the deal through, they agree that there should be no further extension of the deadline.

    2. The DUP get bought off. Grumpy, but will not vote the deal down. As the DUP default setting is grumpy, no-one can tell the difference.

    3. The ERG are told support the deal, or lose the whip.

    4. Corbyn can't allow No Deal, but can't be seen to implement Brexit. He whips for an abstention, to stop a wholesale defection of his Leave-seat MPs voting for the Deal. It guarantees the Boris Deal will pass.

    5. SNP, Greens, LibDems, PC vote against any form of Brexit. Safe in the knowledge that Labour will ensure they aren't risking actually facilitating a No Deal Brexit.

    6. Some of the 21 are told they will have the Whip returned and can stand as Conservatives at the next election if they wish. That will not extend to half a dozen including Grieve and Gauke. It will be hinted that if they STFU, they might still be offered a peerage. Maybe.

    7. Brexit is confirmed as happening by 31st October, even though the nuts and bolts will take until 31st December to get through the House. Boris claims this counts as leaving by 31st October. He has done; he does not need to die.

    8. The election will not happen until the final Brexit nuts and bolts have passed into legislation. Just in case. But Boris gets a significant bounce for Having Made It All Stop. The Brexit Party plunges to 4%, failing to gather any weight of opinion to carry on the fight.

    Boris goes into the election having effectively beaten down both EU-philes and EU-phobes. The Conservative Party looks more united - and easier to manage - than at any point in the past three decades. A healthy majority is Boris's reward.

    Rest seems logical but I can't see 4. He will whip against, especially if Boris is making this a confidence motion.

    Futhermore if the 27 make it clear they want a deal Barnier will work to make it happen. He serves the 27 not the other way around.

    As for 6 I would say the offer to the 21 will be they can have the whip returned if they vote through the deal. If Grieve decides he wants no Brexit so much he won't accept a deal again then he's gone for good, but if those who backed May's deal [or even some who didn't] help pass Boris's deal that would be sufficient penance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited September 2019

    The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.

    Hopefully.
    Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
  • Smith 303* guaranteed?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2019
    nico67 said:

    I expect the ERG will cave and support any deal now .

    A general election is no guarantee that they’ll ever get Brexit .

    You might pick a couple off the edges, but the hard core of 25 or so utter nutters are not going to cave.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    I would like a referendum first too but there is a question of legitimacy. Leavers may not like it but a referendum can be reconfirmed or nullified by another referendum.
    In this respect, Corbyn is correct. A second referendum can only be given legitimacy by a GE manifesto calling for it.
    I would prefer not, but a GE first followed by a referendum is the way.
    Same in Scotland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Smith 303* guaranteed?

    Huge mistake by England enabling him to get in so early.
  • kle4 said:

    Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
    I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I see our cricketers are doing that thing when they raise a little hope in the most hardened of hearts.

    And then Smith comes in.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nico67 said:

    I expect the ERG will cave and support any deal now .

    A general election is no guarantee that they’ll ever get Brexit .

    Brexit is fairly inevitable, its just whether the ERG think they can do any better than support whatever deal is on offer. Possibly not at this stage.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    I am sure Swinson will spoil that by unnecessarily putting up an LD candidate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikley to back any type of deal...
    If they vote against party instructions in what has been deemed a confidence vote then yes
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    edited September 2019
    I know it's David Warner so "who cares" but...
    https://twitter.com/ro_san17/status/1172464330278748160?s=20
  • While Cummings is running the show there ain't going to be a deal with Farage

    How long will that be?
    Is Cummings/Boris similar to Bannon/Trump?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Castle Point, my one-time stamping ground. Spink came to Castle Point after the retirement of the late Sir Bernard Braine, an old-style Conservative who was one of those who blew up the Falklands deal that the Thatcher government was sorting out with the Argentines. Spink was sold locally as someone who had indeed pulled himself up by his bootstraps, having gone, by various steps including RAF service, from a Sec Mod school to a PhD.
    However, he turned out to be somewhat abrasive and managed to grossly offend a significant section of the Tory Ladies Committee on Canvey Island, who refused to work for him, and consequently he lost a previously safe seat in 1997. It was one of the major surprises.
    Mended his fences in 2001 and won back the seat In 2005 he fought the seat as a Tory but he managed to quarrel again with the Tory Party bigwigs, both locally and in Parliament and became UKIP. He then fell out with them and became an Indie, 'Saving our Green Belt' and lost his seat.
    In 2016 he stood for Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex as UKIP candidate, coming second.
    in 2018 he was done for electoral fraud......, deceiving people into signing nomination forms...... and he's currently on a suspended sentence
    Indeed. Interesting information. He seems to fall out with people easily!
  • Charles said:

    If they vote against party instructions in what has been deemed a confidence vote then yes
    It is not deemed a confidence vote. We need a new name for this: a blackmail vote perhaps. Unless Boris (or the whole government) will resign if the vote is lost, it should not be described as a confidence vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I would like a referendum first too but there is a question of legitimacy. Leavers may not like it but a referendum can be reconfirmed or nullified by another referendum.
    In this respect, Corbyn is correct. A second referendum can only be given legitimacy by a GE manifesto calling for it.
    I would prefer not, but a GE first followed by a referendum is the way.
    Same in Scotland.

    Already had the manifestos legitimising the Scottish referendum (SNP and Greens).
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:
    If they dont do it i suspect someone will i.e. Martin Bell type figure.
  • CatMan said:

    I know it's David Warner so "who cares" but...
    https://twitter.com/ro_san17/status/1172464330278748160?s=20

    Multiple problems with that. The ultraedge and picture frame aren't necessarily at the exact same time [hence why the edge is at the edge of the image not the middle of it]
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
    Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
  • kle4 said:

    Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
    The backstop is a much bigger dealbreaker than any other problems, hence why the ERG voted for the Brady Amendment remember? Which Farage wouldn't have.

    The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
  • Diversity in the EU Parliament is not great either - and set to get worse when we leave:

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Ethnic and racial minorities make up at least 10% of the EU’s population but will hold just 5% of seats in the new European Parliament, leaving them under-represented at a time when nationalism, far-right rhetoric and hate speech is on the rise, rights advocates say.......

    The total percentage of new minority lawmakers will also fall to 4% when UK lawmakers leave after Britain’s expected departure from the EU, the network’s analysis found.


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-jobs-minorities/minorities-still-lack-a-strong-voice-in-new-european-parliament-idUSKCN1TD28X

    Nasty racist little Britain......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    edited September 2019

    I am sure Swinson will spoil that by unnecessarily putting up an LD candidate.
    Maybe one for the Greens in the Remain Alliance. Might do well with the Nimby vote so near to Heathrow
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:
    Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
  • Freggles said:

    Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1172469034966757377?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    CatMan said:

    I know it's David Warner so "who cares" but...
    https://twitter.com/ro_san17/status/1172464330278748160?s=20

    Spike lines up with his backfoot movement also. Third umpires always assume a spike is from the ball hitting the bat and clearly here it wasn't so.
  • Dadge said:

    This is how EU democracy works. A representative from each sovereign member state. If they were elected it would diminish national sovereignty. You know that.

    It is a problem, albeit a somewhat minor one, that most people in the EU don't know who these people are, though you'd no doubt complain if the EU spent money sending information leaflets to every voter.
    We don't know who they are, or generally what they have done in previous lives. By chance I found M Barnier has had an extreme influence on the French TV industry before being moved into Europe. He certainly did not leave French TV better than he found it.
  • Funny how he was holding talks while Parliament was in recess, engaged constantly with Parliament while Parliament was trying to hamstring him [and people here were saying what is he doing talking to Parliament rather than Europe] and then when Parliament is prorogued he's back hold talks again.
    Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    The backstop is a much bigger dealbreaker than any other problems, hence why the ERG voted for the Brady Amendment remember? Which Farage wouldn't have.

    The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
    I tend to think they voted for it as a unicorn and if it was viable theyd find another reason to say no like labour leavers or indeed the eu.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Freggles said:

    Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
    Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
  • Pulpstar said:

    Spike lines up with his backfoot movement also. Third umpires always assume a spike is from the ball hitting the bat and clearly here it wasn't so.
    The shadow kind of demonstrates that the ball did hit the bat actually. The spike is on the right meaning that in this frame it hasn't happened yet. Yes the ball isn't touching the bat in this frame, but then the sound isn't this frame either. The shadow shows how close to the bat the ball is and its travelling forwards at over 90mph, when the snick occurs in a fraction of a second later the ball is touching the bat.
  • nico67 said:

    Try reading Craig: Prorogation. Three Assumptions .

    That’s an excellent explanation regarding the constitution .
    Thank you. Very illuminating.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    CatMan said:

    I know it's David Warner so "who cares" but...
    https://twitter.com/ro_san17/status/1172464330278748160?s=20

    I don't think there's enough evidence of a nick to overturn an on-field not-out decision here.

    If anyone ever accuses me of being one-eyed, point them to this comment where I said that about *Warner*
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
    we've got the jokers for sure
  • Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
    We always did.
  • kle4 said:

    I tend to think they voted for it as a unicorn and if it was viable theyd find another reason to say no like labour leavers or indeed the eu.
    Hopefully we'll see sooner rather than later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    kle4 said:

    Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.

    But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
    All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
  • HYUFD said:

    All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
    Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.

    Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    While Cummings is running the show there ain't going to be a deal with Farage

    Perhaps Cummings can take Farage back to Australia with the Ashes .....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
    Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2019
    Clear evidence of Swinson really going hard after the Tory vote:

    "Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to be prime minister. Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister. On a daily basis we get evidence of both of those things,"

    Tactically correct to put distance between the Lib Dems and Labour, because they stand to gain more Tory refugees than Labour ones, and in the right constituencies too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?
    Yes 24
    No 52
    WNV 6
    DK 14
    Refused 3

    And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?
    Yes 33
    No 48
    DK 17
    Refused 3

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4lav01m6zl/PlaidCymruResults_190910_Independence_W.pdf

    47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.

    Bad news for Plaid
  • HYUFD said:

    47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.

    Bad news for Plaid
    Is it...






    ...good news for Boris/Brexit?
  • If they dont do it i suspect someone will i.e. Martin Bell type figure.
    More likely there will be a dozen or more splitting the anti-Boris (and self-publicist) vote between them. It often happens in the prime minister's seat.

    In 2017, Maidenhead had 13 candidates, and Witney 7.
    In 2015, Maidenhead had 7 whereas Witney had 12 candidates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Is it...






    ...good news for Boris/Brexit?
    Yes, as the last Westminster poll for Wales had the Tories ahead in Wales
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108

    Thank you. Very illuminating.
    You’re welcome . Craig is very respected on constitutional matters . You can see how complicated the decision is for the SC .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    HYUFD said:

    All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
    They'll say they are prepared then vote it down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
    Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.

    Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
    Hopefully so but Brexit must be delivered regardless
  • HYUFD said:

    47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.

    Bad news for Plaid
    "The trend is your enemy"
  • HYUFD said:

    47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.

    Bad news for Plaid
    Welsh independence bounces around in the 20-30% box. It has only a limited appeal, even at its height, and largely to Welsh speakers in mid and north Wales.

    The disparities between expenditure and receipts in Wales are also vast and, quite aside from it being almost totally integrated legally with England, it would be almost entirely unviable as an independent state without vast subsidy.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
    This would presumably be one of the seats the pro-Business Conservative party we've been hearing about would stand in.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    HYUFD said:

    Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
    But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.

    Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
  • I think there are between 22-28 Spartans who will vote down any Deal.

    Redwood, Baker, Francois and Cash are fanatics.

    It may be possible to win round people like Julia Lopez and Suella Braverman.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.

    Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
    I thought a deal was only possible if we threatened No Deal? How would there be a deal before the next election?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I think there are between 22-28 Spartans who will vote down any Deal.

    Redwood, Baker, Francois and Cash are fanatics.

    It may be possible to win round people like Julia Lopez and Suella Braverman.

    You've just upset Andrew Bridgen, Brexit Titan (tm).
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
    How will that be enforcable? Politicians dont always tell the truth! Will they force candidates to sign a letter so they have to cause a by-election if they dont comply? The DUP did this and also made them sign a forfeiture letter which meant the signer had to pay a large amount of cash (it might of been£50k but i could be wrong).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It is not deemed a confidence vote. We need a new name for this: a blackmail vote perhaps. Unless Boris (or the whole government) will resign if the vote is lost, it should not be described as a confidence vote.
    That’s why I said “deemed” - ultimately it’s a four line whip I guess...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Anorak said:

    But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.

    Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
    Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Scott_P said:
    I'm no fan of Boris but I'm never impressed by these 'local person tells politician they are awful/not welcome here' clips that get people so excited. I bet you could manage at least one person to do it to Corbyn in east ham and it wouldn't mean anything, and when the country is very divided on many issues of course someone who hates Boris will be encountered.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318
    Jonathan said:

    In 2017 folks here could not predict the result accurately even after the accurate exit poll. What chance now?

    Those peddling certainty now are either fools, spinning for their party or more likely both.

    Ahem. I did. I even had money on Con most seats.

    (Sorry, but after my lost £500 on March departure, I feel the need to brag about one of my successes... :( )
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    "The trend is your enemy"
    What trend? In the 1999 Welsh Assembly elections Plaid got 31% of the vote well before Brexit, so 33% is mainly the pro Plaid pro Welsh independence core, no change despite Brexit
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
    Two facts which have absolutely nothing to do with the point. But you knew that.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    In terms of the last couple of weeks local by elections, the pattern is pretty consistent. Strong Ld vote gain, Tory vote steady either side of neutral movement, labour vote in retreat. Fits the polling picture
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    I thought a deal was only possible if we threatened No Deal? How would there be a deal before the next election?
    Easy. Boris does a Deal with no further extension given by the EU.
  • Conservatives advocating a pact with Farage are nuts.

    It'll scare off more Remainers, and help usher Farage's party into the Commons. Why? Who is most harmed by a new party on the right?

    Could it be the Conservatives?

    Of course Farage wants a pact. He's terrible at FPTP elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    How will that be enforcable? Politicians dont always tell the truth! Will they force candidates to sign a letter so they have to cause a by-election if they dont comply? The DUP did this and also made them sign a forfeiture letter which meant the signer had to pay a large amount of cash (it might of been£50k but i could be wrong).
    They will have to sign a letter comminnitting to Brexit yes, it is time to kick out the diehard Remainers who will not deliver the will of the people from standing as Tory parliamentary candidates
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Charles said:

    That’s why I said “deemed” - ultimately it’s a four line whip I guess...
    I think its silly to complain of the term. They treat it as if a confidence vote for purposes of party discipline, it's not an actual confidence vote, it seems perfectly clear to me.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    HYUFD said:



    Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940

    Churchill was back in office in 1951. He never returned to power. Even though, unlike the Fat Spiv - should he ever attempt to demean an office of state again - he had a career of consistent service to his country behind him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    kle4 said:

    They'll say they are prepared then vote it down.
    They won't as all the 21 will be deselected guaranteed and all replaced by fresh pro Boris candidates.

    There are plenty of pro Brexit loyalists in the party who will respect what their voters want
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_P said:
    I think some people forget that at least some of the Brexit vote was a "fuck you Tories" vote. Because the Tories were in government, and the government was in favour of Remain, a good portion of the Leave vote was just a "anything to screw these guys who've screwed us" sentiment.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Easy. Boris does a Deal with no further extension given by the EU.
    What?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940

    Not quite sure how Churchill would have "won a landslide in 1940" when he lost by a landslide in 1945 ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    I'm no fan of Boris but I'm never impressed by these 'local person tells politician they are awful/not welcome here' clips that get people so excited. I bet you could manage at least one person to do it to Corbyn in east ham and it wouldn't mean anything, and when the country is very divided on many issues of course someone who hates Boris will be encountered.
    It's a bit daft, the polls don't suggest he has 100% support
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    Anorak said:

    Two facts which have absolutely nothing to do with the point. But you knew that.
    No they have EVERYTHING to do with the point whatever the hard left and diehard Remainers believe
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    It's a bit daft, the polls don't suggest he has 100% support
    It makes for a good news clip I've no doubt but it's the extrapolation to 'look what people REALLY think if him' breathlessness that gets me. Millions back Boris. I'm not one of them but plenty love him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited September 2019
    What with falling London house prices and the humiliating possibilty of shelling out £1k on a loser, the prospects for a SeanT stauner* are looking bleak.

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1172470460908527616?s=20

    *Glesga for erection.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318
    Byronic said:

    Fascinating interview with kids author Michael “war horse” Morpurgo in today’s Guardian. He complains, as a Remainer, about being spat at in Sidmouth. Which is quite shocking.

    Except there’s a small detail. He was wearing a “bollocks to Brexit” badge.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/13/michael-morpurgo-boy-giant-brexit-refugee-crisis-trump-civil-war?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    What did he honestly expect? He’s wearing a badge which says “bollocks to democracy” and which, to a Leaver, says, explicitly, “bollocks to your vote”. He’s lucky he wasn’t lamped, like the poseurs who wore MAGA baseball caps in downtown Hollywood. We live in polarised times.
    One of my most trenchant criticisms of the right/alt-right/whatever is that when they say they are pro-free-speech, they are simply lying. Specifically, they are perfectly OK with thoughts designated as crime, social ostracism, violent enforcement, etc, they just don't think the rules should apply to them or theirs.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    JackW said:

    Not quite sure how Churchill would have "won a landslide in 1940" when he lost by a landslide in 1945 ?
    As he would have won a landslide to fight the war and beat Hitler, as Boris will to deliver Brexit and the will of the people, by 1945 Hitler was defeated the war was won so domestic issues took precedence and the mood was for change after 14 years of Tory government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    Welsh independence bounces around in the 20-30% box. It has only a limited appeal, even at its height, and largely to Welsh speakers in mid and north Wales.

    The disparities between expenditure and receipts in Wales are also vast and, quite aside from it being almost totally integrated legally with England, it would be almost entirely unviable as an independent state without vast subsidy.
    Agreed
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Scott_P said:
    ...and if he didn’t go up there she’d be moaning “these politicians never step out of their comfy London homes and come up here...”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    HYUFD said:

    They won't as all the 21 will be deselected guaranteed and all replaced by fresh pro Boris candidates.

    There are plenty of pro Brexit loyalists in the party who will respect what their voters want
    I was referring to the ERG Spartans . They will lie and say they will back a deal but find a reason to say no later. Your heroes.

    You say they arent but they are driving Boris.
This discussion has been closed.