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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next general election vote shares by party betting
Ladbrokes have markets on the GB vote shares for the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems at the next general election. I’m sitting out this market for the time being for a variety of reasons mainly to do, but not exclusively, with
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I think the SNP will do well but have an obvious ceiling on success, and the Lib Dems and Greens will see their vote shares rise. Tricky to call beyond that, I think.
That would be the lowest combined share for the two main parties since 1918
Nothing stands out here for me, either.
Which is why SindyRef2 can’t be a rerun of SindyRef1.....
Voters also prefer staying in the EU, leaving with a Deal or leaving with No Deal to Jeremy Corbyn as PM
Similarly, LD on 30-40% at 20/1 is better value than LD most seats at 16/1, though I did get 500/1 on the latter after the 2017 GE.
Those peddling certainty now are either fools, spinning for their party or more likely both.
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1172407011402604545?s=20
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461234-5-takeaways-from-feisty-democratic-debate
This is just the call the backstop something else plan. If the EU accept it as almost equivalent the dup et al can see that and react.
If there are political parties who want to run round chasing these majorities and always reflect what any majority opinion is saying fine but wait for the inevitable contradictions and contortions.
As for Corbyn, no LD is going to put him into 10 Downing Street. There are alternative Labour figures who could be supported for a cross-party anti-No Deal Government and it needs a Government to tell the EU we are agreeing to an extension.
That requires Boris Johnson to either resign voluntarily or be removed via a Vote of No Confidence. It also requires an alternative Government to be able to command a majority in the Commons to push through the necessary legislation. It may be Sir Oliver Letwin and others are building that cross-party concensus - the Party Conferences will tell us nothing as it will be three weeks of three sets of partisans all sounding defiant and uncompromising.
a) does Jezza vote for it
b) the LD manifesto will be a bit empty
c) Amber Rudd looks even stupider.
Was this video clip edited or is Joe as incoherent as he sounds? Record Player??
https://twitter.com/AnandWrites/status/1172349435071881216?s=19
Top folk in Hartlepool.
The only thing that will mitigate it for him is Corbyn. The electorate are being presented with two plates of shit flavoured gruel. They have select and consume the one that is slightly less repulsive.
It's like on here. Those who talk up civil war number about 3, and one of those was stupid enough to actually make direct threats ("perhaps my punch in your fat smug, pig-ugly face will persuade you.. perhaps a bomb... we will come for you first"). I assume that person will be ejected from these boards when the moderators wake up. Certainly if they said these things in public they would be arrested and that's maybe the end of their insurrection.
The point is, you need to be angry enough to want violence, brave enough to commit it yourself, and discreet enough to keep your head down and not be noticed, and clever enough to think up something effective. There's almost nobody who fits those criteria.
"...make sure they play the record player at night" is a classic in any context. In the context of the question, just bizarre.
If the Belfast agreement is an impediment to the UK leaving the EU, is not a proposed Northern Ireland only backstop not a future problem for the EU?
If at a later date, Ireland wanted to join Schengen, it couldn’t as the CTA and the NI backstop would allow passport free access to British citizens to enter EU member states?
Spontaneous acts, or demonstrations that turn violent are more possible. Life comes at you fast.
"Hello. I'm the 12/1 chance of unseating BJ. It would help my chances very much if you, the 6/1 chance who has no chance, would stand down. As my bar chart shows, only a 12/1 shot can win here,"
But /please/ don't repost that kind of thing.
Edited to remove the image from the blockquote
There's also an old gun battery on the headland if that interests - primarily WW1. It got into a rather unexpected and one-sided fight with a section of the High Seas Fleet in the Great War. Lots of damage and many deaths in the town. The museum near the Trincomalee has a dud round from the German guns.
Because Bozo knows an extension could really hurt his election chances .