The stuff at the SC is fascinating. I am not a lawyer, but from what I can tell the convention is that no region of law is more important than another when it comes to constitutional matters. So whereas you may have a contract that is acceptable to English law but not Scottish law, and vis versa, you could still have that contract for the region the law found it acceptable, in constitutional matters if one legal tradition finds something unacceptable it is unacceptable in all the regions.
This is why we can't just say "well the English and NI courts say it's fine, so it will probably be fine, the Scots are just kicking up a fuss" because the Scotch law tradition is so different that the SC may say this is acceptable constitutionally under English and NI law but not in Scotch law and therefore it must be held void even so. The government have to convince all three traditions they are in the right to succeed, loss in one means parliament comes back.
So the Brexiters can blame the 1707 Act of Union
Elite politicians getting us into a superstate without a mandate from the people!
Does it need spelling out? Politicians in this country who seem very keen on our membership of the EU are also extremely keen on visible diversity.
(With apologies for repeating a point I made last night...)
The whole reason the ethnic or other make-up of the Commission can't easily be 'fixed' is because they are 27(ish!) individuals, all appointed by independent sovereign governments with no-one telling them who to appoint.
If I was a Brexiteer, I probably wouldn't spaff on about this for too long
Mr Felix, the nastiness is not all from the leave side, just most of it. Leave is a pretty nasty philosophy, based mostly on xenophobia and division. That said there are some perfectly pleasant people who voted leave, who are otherwise really good people, and would be open to compromise. The real nastiness is from the extremists and fanatics, and then there are the converts like HYUFD who call people he does not agree with "Traitors" and other childish and inaccurate and insulting epithets.
I'm unsure there is any
Fascinating interview with kids author Michael “war horse” Morpurgo in today’s Guardian. He complains, as a Remainer, about being spat at in Sidmouth. Which is quite shocking.
Except there’s a small detail. He was wearing a “bollocks to Brexit” badge.
What did he honestly expect? He’s wearing a badge which says “bollocks to democracy” and which, to a Leaver, says, explicitly, “bollocks to your vote”. He’s lucky he wasn’t lamped, like the poseurs who wore MAGA baseball caps in downtown Hollywood. We live in polarised times.
You’re condoning spitting at people with different political views? Clearly the Rioja is still coursing through your veins. I’d recommend sleeping it off.
Not condoningenuous.
Perhaps you should publish anconspicuous eye-rolling. Perhaps the moral panic about public disorder needs to be inverted.
This is nonsense. UKIP MPs were regularly assaulted. Tory activists were spat at in their Manchester conference. This crap has been happening for years but it’s always been directed at the right, so you didn’t notice, or you condoned it.
I seem to remember one ukip mep assualting another!
There have only ever been three UKIP MPs. Have any of them ever been assaulted?
Yes. Carswell. You didn’t notice because, subconsciously, you thought it was fair enough. QED
There have only ever been three UKIP MPs. Have any of them ever been assaulted?
Who is the third? (Reckless, Carswell...... are we counting Bill Cash from a few years ago when it wasn't clear what his status was?)
Bob Spink was it - from Castle Point or somewhere like that in Essex
Yes, I remember him. IIRC he was only briefly ukip as he stood as an independent who was opposed to something in the following GE. It might have been opposition to building on greenbelt?
Castle Point, my one-time stamping ground. Spink came to Castle Point after the retirement of the late Sir Bernard Braine, an old-style Conservative who was one of those who blew up the Falklands deal that the Thatcher government was sorting out with the Argentines. Spink was sold locally as someone who had indeed pulled himself up by his bootstraps, having gone, by various steps including RAF service, from a Sec Mod school to a PhD. However, he turned out to be somewhat abrasive and managed to grossly offend a significant section of the Tory Ladies Committee on Canvey Island, who refused to work for him, and consequently he lost a previously safe seat in 1997. It was one of the major surprises. Mended his fences in 2001 and won back the seat In 2005 he fought the seat as a Tory but he managed to quarrel again with the Tory Party bigwigs, both locally and in Parliament and became UKIP. He then fell out with them and became an Indie, 'Saving our Green Belt' and lost his seat. In 2016 he stood for Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex as UKIP candidate, coming second. in 2018 he was done for electoral fraud......, deceiving people into signing nomination forms...... and he's currently on a suspended sentence
I fear that - having named the original 9 - this is taking an unnecessary risk. If the two additional justices swing the result from one result to another (and I have no idea how any of them are likely to rule) there will be outrage. Unjustified outrage, but outrage nonetheless.
Statistically, if we model each judge as giving an independent 50-50 verdict, the chances of a 6-5 outcome are 45%. In those instances, the chance that the two additional judges are both in the majority is 27%, giving an overall probability of 12% of this outcome. Clearly this is a simplified model!
OTOH it is very possible that these two additional judges might turn a narrow 5-4 or even 6-3 verdict into a much more comprehensive 7-4 or 8-3.
Why are they doing that? Does the import of the case require more judges? I presume not. So why?!
Originally the newest judges weren’t going to sit.
The 9 were the ones with most experience. The key judge is Lady Hale being the President .
I can understand though that having 11 might be better as it makes any judgement have more authority .
The more judges the more judgements, including those in the dissenting minority (which is not unlikely, as there was in the Article 50 case). Comparing majority and dissenting judgements is of great interest in big cases to the lawyers/academics in the field. Big cases of this sort are rare, so it is Christmas and birthday all rolled into one for some academic lawyers. Brexit is a gift which keeps on giving in many fields. (And it will enable some poor starving QCs and their instructing solicitors to stave off the bailiffs for another week and put a pound coin in their flickering gas meters).
Funny how he was holding talks while Parliament was in recess, engaged constantly with Parliament while Parliament was trying to hamstring him [and people here were saying what is he doing talking to Parliament rather than Europe] and then when Parliament is prorogued he's back hold talks again.
Indeed.
If the EU do offer something better to the UK than May's Surrender Agreement, it will only be if they still consider that in the absence of a new offer there will be a significantly increased risk that the UK will otherwise leave without having signed up to a comprehensive deal at that point. That is the outcome they fear whether it happens before or after 31st October.
The potential for Johnson to get us out in such a scenario by 31st October has clearly been all but removed by the actions of parliament and so weakened the UK's position greatly. However, the EU may still be worried that if they do not offer Johnson anything, he will be able to win a VONC in Corbyn within days of Corbyn becoming PM, after which Johnson could win a working majority in parliament that would make his threat real at a later date of 31st December or whenever.
The chances of Johnson gaining a working majority, assuming that the EU offers nothing more of substance, is I suggest no more than about 1 in 3 at the moment. The EU's assessment may be different but will change with the opinion polls, so I don't think they will offer anything quite yet. Will a 1 in 3 risk to the EU be enough for Johnson to bring something back at the 11th hour?
Yes Parliament has properly sabotaged the talks though Boris does have one other thing going for him in that the EU want this finished with. As DavidL rightly points out this dragging on isn't good for us, but its not good for them too.
Plus the date was chosen for a reason, 1 November is the start of a new term with a new Commission [which we will need a Commissioner for if we're still a member]. Getting us out cleanly now will be better for them than kicking the can for another three months which could just result in nothing other than another can kick or a no deal anyway after an election.
That will be the quid pro quo for Boris removing the whip from the 21. Sauce for the goose and all that. And if No Deal really is the only alternative, they will cut lonely figures in the division lobby. For what?
Nah, Baker apart, they'll probably see if they can stay members if they just abstain. To be told no.
I know most on here think I'm just talking bollocks, but I see a scenario where:
1. Boris gets a one-minute-to-midnight deal with the heads of the 27 (Barnier having been cut adrift). To get the deal through, they agree that there should be no further extension of the deadline.
2. The DUP get bought off. Grumpy, but will not vote the deal down. As the DUP default setting is grumpy, no-one can tell the difference.
3. The ERG are told support the deal, or lose the whip.
4. Corbyn can't allow No Deal, but can't be seen to implement Brexit. He whips for an abstention, to stop a wholesale defection of his Leave-seat MPs voting for the Deal. It guarantees the Boris Deal will pass.
5. SNP, Greens, LibDems, PC vote against any form of Brexit. Safe in the knowledge that Labour will ensure they aren't risking actually facilitating a No Deal Brexit.
6. Some of the 21 are told they will have the Whip returned and can stand as Conservatives at the next election if they wish. That will not extend to half a dozen including Grieve and Gauke. It will be hinted that if they STFU, they might still be offered a peerage. Maybe.
7. Brexit is confirmed as happening by 31st October, even though the nuts and bolts will take until 31st December to get through the House. Boris claims this counts as leaving by 31st October. He has done; he does not need to die.
8. The election will not happen until the final Brexit nuts and bolts have passed into legislation. Just in case. But Boris gets a significant bounce for Having Made It All Stop. The Brexit Party plunges to 4%, failing to gather any weight of opinion to carry on the fight.
Boris goes into the election having effectively beaten down both EU-philes and EU-phobes. The Conservative Party looks more united - and easier to manage - than at any point in the past three decades. A healthy majority is Boris's reward.
Rest seems logical but I can't see 4. He will whip against, especially if Boris is making this a confidence motion.
Futhermore if the 27 make it clear they want a deal Barnier will work to make it happen. He serves the 27 not the other way around.
As for 6 I would say the offer to the 21 will be they can have the whip returned if they vote through the deal. If Grieve decides he wants no Brexit so much he won't accept a deal again then he's gone for good, but if those who backed May's deal [or even some who didn't] help pass Boris's deal that would be sufficient penance.
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I would like a referendum first too but there is a question of legitimacy. Leavers may not like it but a referendum can be reconfirmed or nullified by another referendum. In this respect, Corbyn is correct. A second referendum can only be given legitimacy by a GE manifesto calling for it. I would prefer not, but a GE first followed by a referendum is the way. Same in Scotland.
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
There have only ever been three UKIP MPs. Have any of them ever been assaulted?
Who is the third? (Reckless, Carswell...... are we counting Bill Cash from a few years ago when it wasn't clear what his status was?)
Bob Spink was it - from Castle Point or somewhere like that in Essex
Yes, I remember him. IIRC he was only briefly ukip as he stood as an independent who was opposed to something in the following GE. It might have been opposition to building on greenbelt?
Castle Point, my one-time stamping ground. Spink came to Castle Point after the retirement of the late Sir Bernard Braine, an old-style Conservative who was one of those who blew up the Falklands deal that the Thatcher government was sorting out with the Argentines. Spink was sold locally as someone who had indeed pulled himself up by his bootstraps, having gone, by various steps including RAF service, from a Sec Mod school to a PhD. However, he turned out to be somewhat abrasive and managed to grossly offend a significant section of the Tory Ladies Committee on Canvey Island, who refused to work for him, and consequently he lost a previously safe seat in 1997. It was one of the major surprises. Mended his fences in 2001 and won back the seat In 2005 he fought the seat as a Tory but he managed to quarrel again with the Tory Party bigwigs, both locally and in Parliament and became UKIP. He then fell out with them and became an Indie, 'Saving our Green Belt' and lost his seat. In 2016 he stood for Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex as UKIP candidate, coming second. in 2018 he was done for electoral fraud......, deceiving people into signing nomination forms...... and he's currently on a suspended sentence
Indeed. Interesting information. He seems to fall out with people easily!
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikley to back any type of deal...
If they vote against party instructions in what has been deemed a confidence vote then yes
It is not deemed a confidence vote. We need a new name for this: a blackmail vote perhaps. Unless Boris (or the whole government) will resign if the vote is lost, it should not be described as a confidence vote.
I would like a referendum first too but there is a question of legitimacy. Leavers may not like it but a referendum can be reconfirmed or nullified by another referendum. In this respect, Corbyn is correct. A second referendum can only be given legitimacy by a GE manifesto calling for it. I would prefer not, but a GE first followed by a referendum is the way. Same in Scotland.
Already had the manifestos legitimising the Scottish referendum (SNP and Greens).
Multiple problems with that. The ultraedge and picture frame aren't necessarily at the exact same time [hence why the edge is at the edge of the image not the middle of it]
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
The backstop is a much bigger dealbreaker than any other problems, hence why the ERG voted for the Brady Amendment remember? Which Farage wouldn't have.
The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
Diversity in the EU Parliament is not great either - and set to get worse when we leave:
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Ethnic and racial minorities make up at least 10% of the EU’s population but will hold just 5% of seats in the new European Parliament, leaving them under-represented at a time when nationalism, far-right rhetoric and hate speech is on the rise, rights advocates say.......
The total percentage of new minority lawmakers will also fall to 4% when UK lawmakers leave after Britain’s expected departure from the EU, the network’s analysis found.
Is there a single person in Europe, outside European politics, who could name all of those people? I doubt it. I literally don’t believe there is such a European person. And yet this is our new and entirely unelected European government. Our new overlords.
Brexit in a photo.
This is how EU democracy works. A representative from each sovereign member state. If they were elected it would diminish national sovereignty. You know that.
It is a problem, albeit a somewhat minor one, that most people in the EU don't know who these people are, though you'd no doubt complain if the EU spent money sending information leaflets to every voter.
We don't know who they are, or generally what they have done in previous lives. By chance I found M Barnier has had an extreme influence on the French TV industry before being moved into Europe. He certainly did not leave French TV better than he found it.
Funny how he was holding talks while Parliament was in recess, engaged constantly with Parliament while Parliament was trying to hamstring him [and people here were saying what is he doing talking to Parliament rather than Europe] and then when Parliament is prorogued he's back hold talks again.
Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
The backstop is a much bigger dealbreaker than any other problems, hence why the ERG voted for the Brady Amendment remember? Which Farage wouldn't have.
The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
I tend to think they voted for it as a unicorn and if it was viable theyd find another reason to say no like labour leavers or indeed the eu.
Spike lines up with his backfoot movement also. Third umpires always assume a spike is from the ball hitting the bat and clearly here it wasn't so.
The shadow kind of demonstrates that the ball did hit the bat actually. The spike is on the right meaning that in this frame it hasn't happened yet. Yes the ball isn't touching the bat in this frame, but then the sound isn't this frame either. The shadow shows how close to the bat the ball is and its travelling forwards at over 90mph, when the snick occurs in a fraction of a second later the ball is touching the bat.
The stuff at the SC is fascinating. I am not a lawyer, but from what I can tell the convention is that no region of law is more important than another when it comes to constitutional matters. So whereas you may have a contract that is acceptable to English law but not Scottish law, and vis versa, you could still have that contract for the region the law found it acceptable, in constitutional matters if one legal tradition finds something unacceptable it is unacceptable in all the regions.
This is why we can't just say "well the English and NI courts say it's fine, so it will probably be fine, the Scots are just kicking up a fuss" because the Scotch law tradition is so different that the SC may say this is acceptable constitutionally under English and NI law but not in Scotch law and therefore it must be held void even so. The government have to convince all three traditions they are in the right to succeed, loss in one means parliament comes back.
Try reading Craig: Prorogation. Three Assumptions .
That’s an excellent explanation regarding the constitution .
Funny how he was holding talks while Parliament was in recess, engaged constantly with Parliament while Parliament was trying to hamstring him [and people here were saying what is he doing talking to Parliament rather than Europe] and then when Parliament is prorogued he's back hold talks again.
Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
Funny how he was holding talks while Parliament was in recess, engaged constantly with Parliament while Parliament was trying to hamstring him [and people here were saying what is he doing talking to Parliament rather than Europe] and then when Parliament is prorogued he's back hold talks again.
Hooray, back to the card table at last. We still hold all the cards, right?
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikely to back any type of deal...
And that may yet happen in time. In the meantime if Johnson sticks to his guns with the 21 it will discourage others from trying it on.
Were he to remove the Whip from 40 or so ERG MPs, the Tories would cease to be the largest party in the Commons!
The ERG voted for the Brady Amendment. If he can deal with the backstop and makes any deal a confidence vote I'm confident the ERG should back it.
Hopefully.
Its the deal with the backstop part that is the issue. If the DUP and Farage say any proposal is equivalent to it the ERG Spartans will follow them. Farage definitely will say that so it's down to the DUP, who dont seem to like being used as cover.
I disagree. We'll see but I think the ERG Spartans will [like Mogg did at MV3] see the writing on the wall and that this is the chance to lock this all down rather than jeopardise it all. Especially if they'll have the whip removed which May never threatened.
Why did they not see the writing on the wall previously? Boris did. Its not just the backstop they considered too high a price for Brexit, so even if he solves that problem what about their other concerns?
The backstop is a much bigger dealbreaker than any other problems, hence why the ERG voted for the Brady Amendment remember? Which Farage wouldn't have.
The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
I tend to think they voted for it as a unicorn and if it was viable theyd find another reason to say no like labour leavers or indeed the eu.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
Clear evidence of Swinson really going hard after the Tory vote:
"Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to be prime minister. Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister. On a daily basis we get evidence of both of those things,"
Tactically correct to put distance between the Lib Dems and Labour, because they stand to gain more Tory refugees than Labour ones, and in the right constituencies too.
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
If they dont do it i suspect someone will i.e. Martin Bell type figure.
More likely there will be a dozen or more splitting the anti-Boris (and self-publicist) vote between them. It often happens in the prime minister's seat.
In 2017, Maidenhead had 13 candidates, and Witney 7. In 2015, Maidenhead had 7 whereas Witney had 12 candidates.
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
The stuff at the SC is fascinating. I am not a lawyer, but from what I can tell the convention is that no region of law is more important than another when it comes to constitutional matters. So whereas you may have a contract that is acceptable to English law but not Scottish law, and vis versa, you could still have that contract for the region the law found it acceptable, in constitutional matters if one legal tradition finds something unacceptable it is unacceptable in all the regions.
This is why we can't just say "well the English and NI courts say it's fine, so it will probably be fine, the Scots are just kicking up a fuss" because the Scotch law tradition is so different that the SC may say this is acceptable constitutionally under English and NI law but not in Scotch law and therefore it must be held void even so. The government have to convince all three traditions they are in the right to succeed, loss in one means parliament comes back.
Try reading Craig: Prorogation. Three Assumptions .
That’s an excellent explanation regarding the constitution .
Thank you. Very illuminating.
You’re welcome . Craig is very respected on constitutional matters . You can see how complicated the decision is for the SC .
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
Hopefully so but Brexit must be delivered regardless
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.
Bad news for Plaid
Welsh independence bounces around in the 20-30% box. It has only a limited appeal, even at its height, and largely to Welsh speakers in mid and north Wales.
The disparities between expenditure and receipts in Wales are also vast and, quite aside from it being almost totally integrated legally with England, it would be almost entirely unviable as an independent state without vast subsidy.
Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.
Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
I thought a deal was only possible if we threatened No Deal? How would there be a deal before the next election?
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
How will that be enforcable? Politicians dont always tell the truth! Will they force candidates to sign a letter so they have to cause a by-election if they dont comply? The DUP did this and also made them sign a forfeiture letter which meant the signer had to pay a large amount of cash (it might of been£50k but i could be wrong).
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikley to back any type of deal...
If they vote against party instructions in what has been deemed a confidence vote then yes
It is not deemed a confidence vote. We need a new name for this: a blackmail vote perhaps. Unless Boris (or the whole government) will resign if the vote is lost, it should not be described as a confidence vote.
That’s why I said “deemed” - ultimately it’s a four line whip I guess...
Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.
Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
I'm no fan of Boris but I'm never impressed by these 'local person tells politician they are awful/not welcome here' clips that get people so excited. I bet you could manage at least one person to do it to Corbyn in east ham and it wouldn't mean anything, and when the country is very divided on many issues of course someone who hates Boris will be encountered.
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.
Bad news for Plaid
"The trend is your enemy"
What trend? In the 1999 Welsh Assembly elections Plaid got 31% of the vote well before Brexit, so 33% is mainly the pro Plaid pro Welsh independence core, no change despite Brexit
Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.
Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
Two facts which have absolutely nothing to do with the point. But you knew that.
In terms of the last couple of weeks local by elections, the pattern is pretty consistent. Strong Ld vote gain, Tory vote steady either side of neutral movement, labour vote in retreat. Fits the polling picture
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
I thought a deal was only possible if we threatened No Deal? How would there be a deal before the next election?
Easy. Boris does a Deal with no further extension given by the EU.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
How will that be enforcable? Politicians dont always tell the truth! Will they force candidates to sign a letter so they have to cause a by-election if they dont comply? The DUP did this and also made them sign a forfeiture letter which meant the signer had to pay a large amount of cash (it might of been£50k but i could be wrong).
They will have to sign a letter comminnitting to Brexit yes, it is time to kick out the diehard Remainers who will not deliver the will of the people from standing as Tory parliamentary candidates
By that measure ERG should have the whip withdrawn as they are unlikley to back any type of deal...
If they vote against party instructions in what has been deemed a confidence vote then yes
It is not deemed a confidence vote. We need a new name for this: a blackmail vote perhaps. Unless Boris (or the whole government) will resign if the vote is lost, it should not be described as a confidence vote.
That’s why I said “deemed” - ultimately it’s a four line whip I guess...
I think its silly to complain of the term. They treat it as if a confidence vote for purposes of party discipline, it's not an actual confidence vote, it seems perfectly clear to me.
Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
Churchill was back in office in 1951. He never returned to power. Even though, unlike the Fat Spiv - should he ever attempt to demean an office of state again - he had a career of consistent service to his country behind him.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
They'll say they are prepared then vote it down.
They won't as all the 21 will be deselected guaranteed and all replaced by fresh pro Boris candidates.
There are plenty of pro Brexit loyalists in the party who will respect what their voters want
I think some people forget that at least some of the Brexit vote was a "fuck you Tories" vote. Because the Tories were in government, and the government was in favour of Remain, a good portion of the Leave vote was just a "anything to screw these guys who've screwed us" sentiment.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
Hopefully a deal will be reached before the next election.
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
I thought a deal was only possible if we threatened No Deal? How would there be a deal before the next election?
Easy. Boris does a Deal with no further extension given by the EU.
I'm no fan of Boris but I'm never impressed by these 'local person tells politician they are awful/not welcome here' clips that get people so excited. I bet you could manage at least one person to do it to Corbyn in east ham and it wouldn't mean anything, and when the country is very divided on many issues of course someone who hates Boris will be encountered.
It's a bit daft, the polls don't suggest he has 100% support
Or how about ousting him by polling the constituency and getting behind whoever has the best chance of beating him?
Boris will end up increasing his majority with his opponents this divided
Leaders of parties always have lots of candidates against them. If UKIP and Brexit party stand against him, what will that do...?
Not much as the Leave vote is now largely behind him
But after Brexit where do those votes go? It's all well and good admiring what someone has done in the past, but Johnson has no well-articulated prospectus beyond leaving the EU.
Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
Two facts which have absolutely nothing to do with the point. But you knew that.
No they have EVERYTHING to do with the point whatever the hard left and diehard Remainers believe
I'm no fan of Boris but I'm never impressed by these 'local person tells politician they are awful/not welcome here' clips that get people so excited. I bet you could manage at least one person to do it to Corbyn in east ham and it wouldn't mean anything, and when the country is very divided on many issues of course someone who hates Boris will be encountered.
It's a bit daft, the polls don't suggest he has 100% support
It makes for a good news clip I've no doubt but it's the extrapolation to 'look what people REALLY think if him' breathlessness that gets me. Millions back Boris. I'm not one of them but plenty love him.
What with falling London house prices and the humiliating possibilty of shelling out £1k on a loser, the prospects for a SeanT stauner* are looking bleak.
Mr Felix, the nastiness is not all from the leave side, just most of it. Leave is a pretty nasty philosophy, based mostly on xenophobia and division. That said there are some perfectly pleasant people who voted leave, who are otherwise really good people, and would be open to compromise. The real nastiness is from the extremists and fanatics, and then there are the converts like HYUFD who call people he does not agree with "Traitors" and other childish and inaccurate and insulting epithets.
I'm unsure there is any evidence to support your assertion that there is more nastiness on one side or the other. Indeed your claim itself is really part of the problem. In my view both Pullman and the person shown upthread should both be prosecuted for incitement to violence along with anyone else who makes such suggestions.
Fascinating interview with kids author Michael “war horse” Morpurgo in today’s Guardian. He complains, as a Remainer, about being spat at in Sidmouth. Which is quite shocking.
Except there’s a small detail. He was wearing a “bollocks to Brexit” badge.
What did he honestly expect? He’s wearing a badge which says “bollocks to democracy” and which, to a Leaver, says, explicitly, “bollocks to your vote”. He’s lucky he wasn’t lamped, like the poseurs who wore MAGA baseball caps in downtown Hollywood. We live in polarised times.
One of my most trenchant criticisms of the right/alt-right/whatever is that when they say they are pro-free-speech, they are simply lying. Specifically, they are perfectly OK with thoughts designated as crime, social ostracism, violent enforcement, etc, they just don't think the rules should apply to them or theirs.
Churchill was back in power by 1951 and would have won a landslide in 1940
Not quite sure how Churchill would have "won a landslide in 1940" when he lost by a landslide in 1945 ?
As he would have won a landslide to fight the war and beat Hitler, as Boris will to deliver Brexit and the will of the people, by 1945 Hitler was defeated the war was won so domestic issues took precedence and the mood was for change after 14 years of Tory government
If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 24 No 52 WNV 6 DK 14 Refused 3
And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country? Yes 33 No 48 DK 17 Refused 3
47% of Welsh voters voted Remain, yet only 33% of Welsh voters back independence even after Brexit.
Bad news for Plaid
Welsh independence bounces around in the 20-30% box. It has only a limited appeal, even at its height, and largely to Welsh speakers in mid and north Wales.
The disparities between expenditure and receipts in Wales are also vast and, quite aside from it being almost totally integrated legally with England, it would be almost entirely unviable as an independent state without vast subsidy.
Except some of the rebels might vote for a deal so are not Grieve type anti Brexiters in all situations and its provably wrong to label them all so.
But theres no point letting them back in. He went nuclear, justified it not, rolling back is pointless
All Tory candidates for the next general election will be required to back Brexit Deal or No Deal including existing MPs, if not they will not be Tory candidates
They'll say they are prepared then vote it down.
They won't as all the 21 will be deselected guaranteed and all replaced by fresh pro Boris candidates.
There are plenty of pro Brexit loyalists in the party who will respect what their voters want
I was referring to the ERG Spartans . They will lie and say they will back a deal but find a reason to say no later. Your heroes.
Comments
The whole reason the ethnic or other make-up of the Commission can't easily be 'fixed' is because they are 27(ish!) individuals, all appointed by independent sovereign governments with no-one telling them who to appoint.
If I was a Brexiteer, I probably wouldn't spaff on about this for too long
However, he turned out to be somewhat abrasive and managed to grossly offend a significant section of the Tory Ladies Committee on Canvey Island, who refused to work for him, and consequently he lost a previously safe seat in 1997. It was one of the major surprises.
Mended his fences in 2001 and won back the seat In 2005 he fought the seat as a Tory but he managed to quarrel again with the Tory Party bigwigs, both locally and in Parliament and became UKIP. He then fell out with them and became an Indie, 'Saving our Green Belt' and lost his seat.
In 2016 he stood for Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex as UKIP candidate, coming second.
in 2018 he was done for electoral fraud......, deceiving people into signing nomination forms...... and he's currently on a suspended sentence
A general election is no guarantee that they’ll ever get Brexit .
Plus the date was chosen for a reason, 1 November is the start of a new term with a new Commission [which we will need a Commissioner for if we're still a member]. Getting us out cleanly now will be better for them than kicking the can for another three months which could just result in nothing other than another can kick or a no deal anyway after an election.
Futhermore if the 27 make it clear they want a deal Barnier will work to make it happen. He serves the 27 not the other way around.
As for 6 I would say the offer to the 21 will be they can have the whip returned if they vote through the deal. If Grieve decides he wants no Brexit so much he won't accept a deal again then he's gone for good, but if those who backed May's deal [or even some who didn't] help pass Boris's deal that would be sufficient penance.
In this respect, Corbyn is correct. A second referendum can only be given legitimacy by a GE manifesto calling for it.
I would prefer not, but a GE first followed by a referendum is the way.
Same in Scotland.
And then Smith comes in.
https://twitter.com/ro_san17/status/1172464330278748160?s=20
Is Cummings/Boris similar to Bannon/Trump?
The transition is temporary that can be swallowed. The backstop was designed to be permanent [or replaced by something permanent that is equivalent] that was the problem.
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Ethnic and racial minorities make up at least 10% of the EU’s population but will hold just 5% of seats in the new European Parliament, leaving them under-represented at a time when nationalism, far-right rhetoric and hate speech is on the rise, rights advocates say.......
The total percentage of new minority lawmakers will also fall to 4% when UK lawmakers leave after Britain’s expected departure from the EU, the network’s analysis found.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-jobs-minorities/minorities-still-lack-a-strong-voice-in-new-european-parliament-idUSKCN1TD28X
Nasty racist little Britain......
If anyone ever accuses me of being one-eyed, point them to this comment where I said that about *Warner*
Be quite funny really if Boris passes a deal and sees support surge thanks to relief its all finally over with. Oh to be a fly on the wall with Corbyn who threw away a chance at a pre-Brexit poll.
"Jeremy Corbyn is not fit to be prime minister. Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister. On a daily basis we get evidence of both of those things,"
Tactically correct to put distance between the Lib Dems and Labour, because they stand to gain more Tory refugees than Labour ones, and in the right constituencies too.
Bad news for Plaid
...good news for Boris/Brexit?
In 2017, Maidenhead had 13 candidates, and Witney 7.
In 2015, Maidenhead had 7 whereas Witney had 12 candidates.
The disparities between expenditure and receipts in Wales are also vast and, quite aside from it being almost totally integrated legally with England, it would be almost entirely unviable as an independent state without vast subsidy.
Look at Churchill in 1945. And he ain't no Churchill.
Redwood, Baker, Francois and Cash are fanatics.
It may be possible to win round people like Julia Lopez and Suella Braverman.
(Sorry, but after my lost £500 on March departure, I feel the need to brag about one of my successes...
It'll scare off more Remainers, and help usher Farage's party into the Commons. Why? Who is most harmed by a new party on the right?
Could it be the Conservatives?
Of course Farage wants a pact. He's terrible at FPTP elections.
There are plenty of pro Brexit loyalists in the party who will respect what their voters want
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1172470460908527616?s=20
*Glesga for erection.
You say they arent but they are driving Boris.