politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unelected PM Boris Johnson maintains his 100% record in Parlia
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The Sun front page is just comical.0
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Not likely as a 55% leave seat. The only possibility if Lib/Lab stand down and give him a free runrottenborough said:
Penrith and Borders: Independent Conservative GAIN from Conservative.Scott_P said:0 -
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Which is entirely possible.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Not likely as a 55% leave seat. The only possibility if Lib/Lab stand down and give him a free runrottenborough said:
Penrith and Borders: Independent Conservative GAIN from Conservative.Scott_P said:0 -
YOU just don't understand.Gallowgate said:
You just don’t understand. Visceral hatred of the tories is just a way of life up here. They may vote Brexit Party but not Tory.HYUFD said:
WRONG, 6% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory and only 1% of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour.MaxPB said:
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.HYUFD said:
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit doneMaxPB said:
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.HYUFD said:
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to BorisMaxPB said:
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.Gallowgate said:
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.Benpointer said:
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats0 -
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Even if he just ends up with zero any net gains from the position in June 2017, he will still have replaced defectors and independents with new loyal Conservative MPs and will have a parliamentary party he can rely on in key votes. He would have won this week's votes if that he had that now. It would be a huge difference from the arithmetic he faced when he took over. He would also as a bonus have inflicted the same sort of existential damage on the BXP as Cameron inflicted on UKIP.FF43 said:
It only matters if those friends supported Corbyn in 2017.Floater said:
All day I have been getting whats app messages from friends and Corbyn is getting an absolute bollockingTGOHF said:
Having said that, Johnson's task isn't huge. He doesn't need a landslide. He just needs a net gain of 20 or more seats.
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I think it depends who they are.Noo said:
Scope for making a series of Laurel & Hardy style images replete with "another fine mess" taglines.tyson said:Let's go for that vote and have pics of Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson on every billboard.....
That said, I think it's usually a bad idea to put your opponent's faces on your literature.0 -
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Yes. Except he is also against diehard remainer traitor voters such as yourself.HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Which is a problem either for you or Boris.0 -
That was when Labour had won most seats in the last election and went from a hung parliament to a majority, the Tories won most seats in the previous election hereA_View_From_Cumbria5 said:I can't think there is a lot happened the last 48 hrs that wasn't as expected. Maybe the numbers were a bit higher but I'm not sure about that - the lower numbers seemed to be wishful thinking.
But Boris was a long way off how he performed just after taking office today, but not as bad as his detractors wish. The HofL stuff is where it is at at the moment - that seems to be just empty optimism to me.
It is hard to disagree with Corbyn's logic on the GE vote.
The Kinnock amendment is interesting and certainly a very minor win for Boris.
Less obviously not getting the GE might be another minor win for Boris.
Of course he has a measure of control of the house when the proprogation timetable sticks in - he only has to allow stuff he wants.
Last time we had a GE on 15 Oct Labour won by 3.0 -
Kick him in the OODA loop, see how he likes that...rottenborough said:The trouble with being an obsessive game theory player is if the other side don't give a fuck about game theory.
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If it makes you feel better.HYUFD said:
YOU just don't understand.Gallowgate said:
You just don’t understand. Visceral hatred of the tories is just a way of life up here. They may vote Brexit Party but not Tory.HYUFD said:
WRONG, 6% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory and only 1% of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour.MaxPB said:
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.HYUFD said:
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit doneMaxPB said:
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.HYUFD said:
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to BorisMaxPB said:
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.Gallowgate said:
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.Benpointer said:
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats0 -
Just so long as he's around long enough to deliver a Con majority and Brexit afterwards he'll have done his job.rottenborough said:
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This is absolutely false. I have no idea why you persist in believing it.rcs1000 said:
The point is there is general agreement on the technical solutionPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not being obtuse at all.rcs1000 said:
Are you being deliberately obtuse?Philip_Thompson said:Ireland suggesting border checks could be done away from the border: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49587610
Gee who's been suggesting that?
The backstop is b****ks and always has been.
We all know the correct technical solution to the border. There have been papers published, including by the European Commission, on the solution.
The issue is not "is there a technical solution which removes the need for a hard border", it is "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution"?
There is also the - very reasonable - fear that the EU or Ireland will drag their feet once we're in the backstop, and that's why binding international arbitration was added to the WA backstop text.
If there is a correct technical solution to the border then lets drop the vile backstop, enter a transition [during which the backstop doesn't apply anyway], avoid the risk of no deal and work on the solution.
I don't care if the EU or Ireland don't drag their feet once in the backstop. I object to being in the backstop full stop. And if there is an [imperfect] solution that can be done immediately in the event of no deal, it should be a reasonable fallback at the end of a transition.
The answer to "what happens between the end of the transition period and the implementation of the technical solution" should not be the backstop IMO it should be "unless an agreement otherwise is reached at the time, then the same as would occur in a no deal scenario".
What there is not general agreement on is what happens between the end of the transition (due for end 2020) and its implementation.0 -
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I can see a sustained burst of 'Let the people, not Parliament, decide.'
A slogan based on Jezza's last two years of utterances.0 -
Tories gonna ToryScott_P said:0 -
None of them are VOTING at all - until we have a GE!HYUFD said:
YOU just don't understand.Gallowgate said:
You just don’t understand. Visceral hatred of the tories is just a way of life up here. They may vote Brexit Party but not Tory.HYUFD said:
WRONG, 6% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory and only 1% of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour.MaxPB said:
Getting working class Labour voters to vote for the Tory party is a fools errand.HYUFD said:
It isn't it is the ONLY strategy that can get a Tory majority, most voters now oppose further austerity in the polls but also oppose further extension and want Brexit doneMaxPB said:
That strikes me as a poor strategy. But what do I know, I'm just a lowly analyst.HYUFD said:
They can't but it will be enough to reassure working class Labour Leaver voters thinking of voting Tory over Corbyn's Brexit betrayal to make the final leap to BorisMaxPB said:
I don't think going into another election promising more austerity would be a winner, but I also don't see how we can outbid Labour on spending.Gallowgate said:
Meanwhile Labour will be shaking that mighty magic money tree within an inch of its life. It was very thoughtful for Javid to plant it for McDonnell today.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure on that. Labour having to be dragged into an election will be brought up at every available opportunity.Benpointer said:
By the time we're into an election campaign, Labour will not have turned down the election offer.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
Today's vote will be yesterday's fish and chip paper.
8% of 2017 Labour voters are also now voting Brexit Party and just need one more push to come to Boris
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c68uv1jm1d/TheTimes_190903_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats0 -
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That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.Scott_P said:0 -
The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=210 -
Imagine listing cathedrals and not mentioning Carlisle. Veey odd.0
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Dominic Grieve says he may stand as an Independent at the next general election0
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26 minutes I make that from amendment 2C to 2D on the program motion0
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Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think you quite realise just how repellant Boris Johnson is when we are faced with his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA0 -
Corbyn Clucks Up Brexit.
May not be the most subtle headline, but more fowl word play from The Sun.0 -
From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983SandyRentool said:
That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.Scott_P said:0 -
8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?Scott_P said:0 -
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=210 -
Possible ... but not very easy.Gallowgate said:
Which is entirely possible.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Not likely as a 55% leave seat. The only possibility if Lib/Lab stand down and give him a free runrottenborough said:
Penrith and Borders: Independent Conservative GAIN from Conservative.Scott_P said:
After all, have the LibDems even sorted out who is their candidate for Torbay?
The party animal Dr Sarah Wollaston, or the loyal LibDem who has been nursing g the seat for 3 years, Caroline Voaden.0 -
Win a majority in an election?Scott_P said:0 -
Aren't there 86 on the program motion ?MarqueeMark said:
8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?Scott_P said:0 -
One for the ages - a masterpiece.Gallowgate said:The Sun front page is just comical.
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Luckily he has the legendary charm of the ultra-smooth Dominic Cummings to help him win over hearts and minds amongst MPs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is to do with the fact he cannot win a Parliamentary vote that is that makes it untoward.kle4 said:I think we can drop the 'unelected PM' bit. We all know how our PMs work, and that they don't require leading their party into an election, why imply there's something untoward about that?
IIRC he is the PM with the fewest MPs since Ramsay MacDonald which did not turn out well for MacDonald.0 -
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Should they have put Boris Johnson's photo next to the word THIS?Scott_P said:1 -
If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?0
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FFS Laura fecking-useless Kuenssberg!Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=210 -
What election?MarqueeMark said:
Win a majority in an election?Scott_P said:0 -
Polls take a week or two to react. They are not as volatile as PB frothers.Byronic said:
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think you quite realise just how repellant Boris Johnson is when we are faced with his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA0 -
So.. are Bozza/Cummings/Cleverley doubling-down despite the party uproar... or has this been mangled through the filter of some old duffer of a constituency chair who can't articulate the difference between the whip and party membership?
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/11693597463081574450 -
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Credit to Saj for finding some spare change for rough sleepers today, but £50M between 5,000 street sleepers is ten grand per swagman. Are they all getting deposits for flats in Doncaster?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristianGuy_/status/11693072629319393290 -
DM, Sun, Torygraph and Express slate Corbyn. Shocked I am.rottenborough said:0 -
This is a zombie government. It wins a vote 298 to 56 in the HoC, and still loses !MarqueeMark said:
8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?Scott_P said:
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You and the Mirror were on the same side in the Brexit Referendum.HYUFD said:
From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983SandyRentool said:
That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.Scott_P said:
Marxist.0 -
No, Boris would win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting on 31 October to ensure Boris keeps to his legal obligations, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...0 -
But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔HYUFD said:
No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=210 -
Of course the government is open to that. That would be Christmas for the Tories.Danny565 said:
Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting around 31 October, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...0 -
He would certainly be shortchanging himself by missing out on the payoff he will get when he loses.Scott_P said:0 -
Part of the beauty of the lord's is that they effectively have a vote on whether to vote or not.Pulpstar said:
Aren't there 86 on the program motion ?MarqueeMark said:
8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?Scott_P said:0 -
Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.
So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.
But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.1 -
+1Gallowgate said:
But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔HYUFD said:
No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
"Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension."0 -
At least, not like one Lord Rothermere of the Daily Mail backed the Nazis.HYUFD said:
From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983SandyRentool said:
That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous CorbynByronic said:
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to cause offence by outlining how things work or do not work. By the same token, the average person probably does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA0 -
And January 2021, and...Benpointer said:
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=210 -
Hopefully he won’t be alone. Which might concentrate Tory minds a little.Scott_P said:0 -
Bozo will have resigned before a November GE if he is a man of his word. "Do or Die"HYUFD said:
No, Boris would win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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There are so many more than 5k rough sleepers in the UK......Drutt said:Credit to Saj for finding some spare change for rough sleepers today, but £50M between 5,000 street sleepers is ten grand per swagman. Are they all getting deposits for flats in Doncaster?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristianGuy_/status/1169307262931939329
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We are still on course to leave on the 31st Oct.Gallowgate said:
But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔HYUFD said:
No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.GIN1138 said:
It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.HYUFD said:Great headlines for the Government tonight, Corbyn blocks Brexit and the Government ends austerity and increases spending on the NHS and police etc.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
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It doesn't look as if the HoL filibuster is going to work anyway. Government numbers dropping as it gets past bedtime.Danny565 said:
Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting on 31 October to ensure Boris keeps to his legal obligations, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...0 -
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?Scott_P said:0 -
It won't fly. There would be nothing to stop Labour reneging on the promise once the filibuster had ended.Danny565 said:
Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting around 31 October, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...
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William Waldegrave being very defeatist about the UK on Newsnight.0
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Irrespective, he will still be paid.Wulfrun_Phil said:
He would certainly be shortchanging himself by missing out on the payoff he will get when he loses.Scott_P said:
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+1GIN1138 said:Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.
So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.
But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.0 -
Lol. Laura K really is well worth missing.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=211 -
If the s*n don’t have an intern dressed as a chicken following Mr. Corbyn around tomorrow I shall be surprised0
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Particularly if they run as Independent Remainer, with the Remain parties standing down...The_Taxman said:
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?Scott_P said:0 -
Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?HYUFD said:
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous CorbynByronic said:
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explaining it is a bit more complicated than that but did not want to causso far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.MaxPB said:Hmm, it's going to be tough for Labour to use the unelected insult against Boris any more.
I think them turning down an election will play very poorly with the public, they do look scared and on the run.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA0 -
If Johnson won a majority before the EU summit, the only possible alternative deal he could do would be to go back to the EU's original draft with the NI-only backstop. Perhaps HYUFD was half right.0
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Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?AlastairMeeks said:
And January 2021, and...Benpointer said:
Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?AlastairMeeks said:
If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.Gallowgate said:The previous tweet was a typo apparently...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
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I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.TOPPING said:
Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?
I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.1 -
Indeed, like Martin Bell in two dozen seats!Foxy said:
Particularly if they run as Independent Remainer, with the Remain parties standing down...The_Taxman said:
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?Scott_P said:
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Man of his word ROFLMAOSandyRentool said:
Bozo will have resigned before a November GE if he is a man of his word. "Do or Die"HYUFD said:
No, Boris would win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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But Parliament has prevented it and is too chicken to have an election so he'll need a majority. Problem solved.Gallowgate said:
But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔HYUFD said:
No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
If you think Boris calling the obstructionist MPs cowards denying the democratic will for 2 months will end with Boris being unpopular you have odd logic.0 -
I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?The_Taxman said:
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?Scott_P said:0 -
Well at one point I couldn't see how any Brexit would happen any other way except Jezza implementing it.RandallFlagg said:
Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.GIN1138 said:
It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.HYUFD said:Great headlines for the Government tonight, Corbyn blocks Brexit and the Government ends austerity and increases spending on the NHS and police etc.
What a constrast to GE17 when Corbyn promised to back Brexit and could attack May's Government over continued austerity
It's very, very disappoitning.
To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months.
And remember I'd have voted for May's deal on MV2 and MV3 and though the ERG etc were dumb not to...0 -
Motion 2E slightly quicker, only 21 minutes from the last "clear the bar" to this one.0
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They won't, the Tories got 65% in Beaconsfield in 2017, even if that vote split 50-50 between the Tory candidate and Grieve given Labour only got 21% and the LDs got 7% one of them would still winThe_Taxman said:
Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?Scott_P said:0 -
Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?HYUFD said:
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous CorbynByronic said:
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explain....does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA0 -
We will not be out thanks to Jeremy Corbyn who voted to extend while Boris voted to Leave on 31st OctoberGallowgate said:
But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔HYUFD said:
No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extendMikeL said:If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
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Amiable people don't go around calling people traitors just for having policies they dislike.YBarddCwsc said:
I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.TOPPING said:
Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?
I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.1 -
4 years old.Nigelb said:
Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?HYUFD said:
Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous CorbynByronic said:
Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall seetyson said:
Haha....I don't think yo his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.TOPPING said:
It all turns on October 31st. If we leave by then he is a hero. If we don't he is done for.MaxPB said:
Well all they will hear tonight and tomorrow (and the next few days) is that Boris wanted to have an election and Labour denied the people a say. As you rightly point out, the detail of whatever no deal blocking stuff will get lost in the small print. The headlines are "Labour vote down election". It's going to play very badly IMO.The_Taxman said:
After speaking to someone I know, they ventured their opinion on Brexit. They still don't understand why the 2016 vote did not mean we instantly left the EU! I tried explain....does not understand the FTPA and why Boris cannot have an election, so far. People think what they want to think and the sheer level of ignorance on democratic institutions and the processes involved seem to pass many citizens.
This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.
He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
Night night from SPARTA
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Thankyou though it is more just annoying than bullyingYBarddCwsc said:
I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.TOPPING said:
Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?
I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.0
This discussion has been closed.