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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unelected PM Boris Johnson maintains his 100% record in Parlia

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    The Sun front page is just comical.
  • Penrith and Borders: Independent Conservative GAIN from Conservative.
    Not likely as a 55% leave seat. The only possibility if Lib/Lab stand down and give him a free run
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    Not likely as a 55% leave seat. The only possibility if Lib/Lab stand down and give him a free run
    Which is entirely possible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    You just don’t understand. Visceral hatred of the tories is just a way of life up here. They may vote Brexit Party but not Tory.
    YOU just don't understand.

    6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats
  • FF43 said:

    It only matters if those friends supported Corbyn in 2017.

    Having said that, Johnson's task isn't huge. He doesn't need a landslide. He just needs a net gain of 20 or more seats.
    Even if he just ends up with zero any net gains from the position in June 2017, he will still have replaced defectors and independents with new loyal Conservative MPs and will have a parliamentary party he can rely on in key votes. He would have won this week's votes if that he had that now. It would be a huge difference from the arithmetic he faced when he took over. He would also as a bonus have inflicted the same sort of existential damage on the BXP as Cameron inflicted on UKIP.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Noo said:

    Scope for making a series of Laurel & Hardy style images replete with "another fine mess" taglines.
    That said, I think it's usually a bad idea to put your opponent's faces on your literature.
    I think it depends who they are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    .
    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily, Boris has voted for No Deal and the WA at MV3 and to remove the backstop. the Commons has voted to stay in the EU past October 31st, against No Deal and against the WA.

    This week has been a PR exercise from Boris reassuring Leavers he is on their side against the diehard Remainer traitors in the Commons, he might try and ask the Queen to refuse royal assent but even if the Bill against No Deal passes led by Corbyn Boris can then call a general election backed by Labour with a mandate for Brexit having always voted to Leave on October 31st while Corbyn has always voted to Remain past October 31st and to leave the EU if the Tories win a majority straightaway.

    He can then watch the Labour Leave seats start to topple
    Yes. Except he is also against diehard remainer traitor voters such as yourself.

    Which is a problem either for you or Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    I can't think there is a lot happened the last 48 hrs that wasn't as expected. Maybe the numbers were a bit higher but I'm not sure about that - the lower numbers seemed to be wishful thinking.

    But Boris was a long way off how he performed just after taking office today, but not as bad as his detractors wish. The HofL stuff is where it is at at the moment - that seems to be just empty optimism to me.

    It is hard to disagree with Corbyn's logic on the GE vote.

    The Kinnock amendment is interesting and certainly a very minor win for Boris.

    Less obviously not getting the GE might be another minor win for Boris.

    Of course he has a measure of control of the house when the proprogation timetable sticks in - he only has to allow stuff he wants.

    Last time we had a GE on 15 Oct Labour won by 3.

    That was when Labour had won most seats in the last election and went from a hung parliament to a majority, the Tories won most seats in the previous election here
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The trouble with being an obsessive game theory player is if the other side don't give a fuck about game theory.

    Kick him in the OODA loop, see how he likes that...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    YOU just don't understand.

    6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats
    If it makes you feel better.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Just so long as he's around long enough to deliver a Con majority and Brexit afterwards he'll have done his job. :)
  • rcs1000 said:

    The point is there is general agreement on the technical solution

    What there is not general agreement on is what happens between the end of the transition (due for end 2020) and its implementation.
    This is absolutely false. I have no idea why you persist in believing it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    I can see a sustained burst of 'Let the people, not Parliament, decide.'

    A slogan based on Jezza's last two years of utterances.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    HYUFD said:

    YOU just don't understand.

    6% SIX PERCENT of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Tory, just ONE percent of 2017 Tory voters are now voting Labour, that is more than enough for a Tory majority on its own and if the Labour Leave vote collapses to the Brexit Party that allows the Tories through the middle too in Labour Leave marginal seats
    None of them are VOTING at all - until we have a GE!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Byronic said:

    I have no desire to be ungallant, but Caroline Spelman looks like quite an unconvincing mid 80s transsexual in an ill advised wig, in that photo
    I can't imagine why you wanted your posting history expunged.
  • Scott_P said:
    That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    The previous tweet was a typo apparently...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Imagine listing cathedrals and not mentioning Carlisle. Veey odd.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is Gove going to wield the knife again?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1169361122295767041
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    Dominic Grieve says he may stand as an Independent at the next general election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    26 minutes I make that from amendment 2C to 2D on the program motion
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    tyson said:

    Haha....I don't think you quite realise just how repellant Boris Johnson is when we are faced with his entitled, narcissistic bluster day in and out....
    Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see

    Night night from SPARTA
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    edited September 2019
    Corbyn Clucks Up Brexit.

    May not be the most subtle headline, but more fowl word play from The Sun.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    That's one of the great front pages for Bozo that HY referred to earlier.
    From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263
    Alistair said:

    Imagine listing cathedrals and not mentioning Carlisle. Veey odd.

    Steeplehouses full of false idols...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553
    Scott_P said:
    8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?
  • The previous tweet was a typo apparently...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21

    If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited September 2019

    Which is entirely possible.
    Possible ... but not very easy.

    After all, have the LibDems even sorted out who is their candidate for Torbay?

    The party animal Dr Sarah Wollaston, or the loyal LibDem who has been nursing g the seat for 3 years, Caroline Voaden.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234

    8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?
    Aren't there 86 on the program motion ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The Sun front page is just comical.

    One for the ages - a masterpiece.
  • I think it is to do with the fact he cannot win a Parliamentary vote that is that makes it untoward.

    IIRC he is the PM with the fewest MPs since Ramsay MacDonald which did not turn out well for MacDonald.
    Luckily he has the legendary charm of the ultra-smooth Dominic Cummings to help him win over hearts and minds amongst MPs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Scott_P said:
    Should they have put Boris Johnson's photo next to the word THIS?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    The previous tweet was a typo apparently...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21

    FFS Laura fecking-useless Kuenssberg!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263
    Byronic said:

    Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see

    Night night from SPARTA
    Polls take a week or two to react. They are not as volatile as PB frothers.
  • So.. are Bozza/Cummings/Cleverley doubling-down despite the party uproar... or has this been mangled through the filter of some old duffer of a constituency chair who can't articulate the difference between the whip and party membership?


    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1169359746308157445
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Credit to Saj for finding some spare change for rough sleepers today, but £50M between 5,000 street sleepers is ten grand per swagman. Are they all getting deposits for flats in Doncaster?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristianGuy_/status/1169307262931939329
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    DM, Sun, Torygraph and Express slate Corbyn. Shocked I am.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    8 votes in 5 hours - only 192 more votes to come?
    This is a zombie government. It wins a vote 298 to 56 in the HoC, and still loses !
  • HYUFD said:

    From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983
    You and the Mirror were on the same side in the Brexit Referendum.

    Marxist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    edited September 2019
    MikeL said:

    If no GE until post 31 Oct, will Boris resign as PM around 17 Oct?

    No, Boris would win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extend
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019

    If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
    Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting on 31 October to ensure Boris keeps to his legal obligations, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.

    That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    No, he will win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extend
    But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    If true, 2019 looks unlikely. Once you get past 31 October, no one is going to thank you for a Christmas election. And no one seems to have noticed that with prorogation November is almost impossible to hit.
    Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
  • Danny565 said:

    Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting around 31 October, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.

    That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...
    Of course the government is open to that. That would be Christmas for the Tories.
  • Scott_P said:
    He would certainly be shortchanging himself by missing out on the payoff he will get when he loses.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Pulpstar said:

    Aren't there 86 on the program motion ?
    Part of the beauty of the lord's is that they effectively have a vote on whether to vote or not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.

    So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.

    But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔
    +1

    "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension."
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    From THE DAILY MIRROR, a paper so hard left it even backed Michael Foot over Margaret Thatcher in 1983
    At least, not like one Lord Rothermere of the Daily Mail backed the Nazis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Let’s wait for the first proper polls. I predict all the Boris haters will be rather disappointed. But we shall see

    Night night from SPARTA
    Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
  • Which does rather beg the question - will be be facing exactly the same situation in January?
    And January 2021, and...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully he won’t be alone. Which might concentrate Tory minds a little.
  • HYUFD said:

    No, Boris would win a general election in November with a manifesto commitment to take us out of the EU as soon as he wins having voted to Leave on 31st October as he promised while Corbyn voted to extend
    Bozo will have resigned before a November GE if he is a man of his word. "Do or Die"
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Drutt said:

    Credit to Saj for finding some spare change for rough sleepers today, but £50M between 5,000 street sleepers is ten grand per swagman. Are they all getting deposits for flats in Doncaster?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristianGuy_/status/1169307262931939329

    There are so many more than 5k rough sleepers in the UK......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔
    We are still on course to leave on the 31st Oct.

  • GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to understand what's changed with Jezza since 2017? I always had him down a campaigner at heart. A politiican that was most at home away from the petty games of Westminster and out on the stump.

    It's very, very disappoitning.

    To think I've been toying with voting for him in recent months. :(
    Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Danny565 said:

    Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting on 31 October to ensure Boris keeps to his legal obligations, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.

    That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...
    It doesn't look as if the HoL filibuster is going to work anyway. Government numbers dropping as it gets past bedtime.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:
    Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
  • Danny565 said:

    Also, the problem with November (or atleast, before the first few weeks of November) is that you would need the Commons to still be sitting around 31 October, which presumably wouldn't be possible if the election campaign was in full swing at that point.

    That said, I wonder if there's something in that Tory peer's tweet from earlier about the government open to doing a deal with Labour to end the Lords filibuster on the No Deal Bill in exchange for Boris's election date...
    It won't fly. There would be nothing to stop Labour reneging on the promise once the filibuster had ended.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Chris said:

    Should they have put Boris Johnson's photo next to the word THIS?
    No doubt Radio 4 tomorrow morning will carry an interview with Amber saying how jolly cross she is about it at all, before doing precisely nothing to change things.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    William Waldegrave being very defeatist about the UK on Newsnight.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    He would certainly be shortchanging himself by missing out on the payoff he will get when he loses.
    Irrespective, he will still be paid.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    Just saw Nick Watt reporting Boris will call off the fillibuster in HoL if Jezza agrees to an election.

    So Jezza can get NO DEAL off the table on 31st October by agreeing to a GE.

    But of course this isn't really about Brexit and No Deal at all is it? This is purely about Labour MPs being absolutely panic stricken at the prospect of having to face the electorate because they know the Lib-Dems will fillet them on the Remain side while Con/Brexit will fillet them on the Leave side.

    +1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    The previous tweet was a typo apparently...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169365639103991809?s=21

    Lol. Laura K really is well worth missing.
  • If the s*n don’t have an intern dressed as a chicken following Mr. Corbyn around tomorrow I shall be surprised
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
    Particularly if they run as Independent Remainer, with the Remain parties standing down...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
    Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?
  • If Johnson won a majority before the EU summit, the only possible alternative deal he could do would be to go back to the EU's original draft with the NI-only backstop. Perhaps HYUFD was half right.
  • And January 2021, and...

    Johnson’s entire strategy has been based on getting an election before 31st October. What’s he going to do if he doesn’t get one?

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TOPPING said:



    Why would you want to wipe the smug smile off your own face?

    I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.

    I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Foxy said:

    Particularly if they run as Independent Remainer, with the Remain parties standing down...
    Indeed, like Martin Bell in two dozen seats! :wink:
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Bozo will have resigned before a November GE if he is a man of his word. "Do or Die"
    Man of his word ROFLMAO
  • But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔
    But Parliament has prevented it and is too chicken to have an election so he'll need a majority. Problem solved.

    If you think Boris calling the obstructionist MPs cowards denying the democratic will for 2 months will end with Boris being unpopular you have odd logic.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
    I think the likes of Grieve and the two Hammonds would stand decent chances. I recall all are in Remain seats - presumably the official Tory candidates will be hardcore Leaver europhobes, to comply with Boris’ purge parameters?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Seriously? Didn't think a hardcore leaver such as yourself would consider voting for a party which would deliver you BRINO, even before Corbyn caved on offering a 2nd referendum.
    Well at one point I couldn't see how any Brexit would happen any other way except Jezza implementing it.

    And remember I'd have voted for May's deal on MV2 and MV3 and though the ERG etc were dumb not to...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    Motion 2E slightly quicker, only 21 minutes from the last "clear the bar" to this one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    Which probably means that CCHQ will have to divert resources from other seats, which, the Tories could have used to target Labour seats or defence against LD/SNP. A campaign has finite resources and you can only spend a pound once or have an individual in one place at a time. Independents turning safe seats into marginals is a really clever move by Boris and co! I wonder if they wargamed that as well?
    They won't, the Tories got 65% in Beaconsfield in 2017, even if that vote split 50-50 between the Tory candidate and Grieve given Labour only got 21% and the LDs got 7% one of them would still win
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, I have never, ever in my life wanted to win a general election as much as this one and I expect most real conservatives feel the same. In fact I could not care less if the Tories never win a general election for over a decade after as long as Boris wins this one, delivers Brexit, wipes the smug smile off the diehard Remainers and beats the treacherous Corbyn
    Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    But he said we’d be out no ifs no buts. 🤔
    We will not be out thanks to Jeremy Corbyn who voted to extend while Boris voted to Leave on 31st October
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.

    I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.
    Amiable people don't go around calling people traitors just for having policies they dislike.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Nigelb said:

    Given the comment, it seems appropriate to ask, how old are you ?
    4 years old.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    I find your endless sniping at HYUFD close to bullying.

    I don't happen to agree with HYUFD, but he is at least amiable.
    Thankyou though it is more just annoying than bullying
This discussion has been closed.