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And Boris will fully own the disaster that is Brexit as it rolls through the next couple of years...MarqueeMark said:
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."Mysticrose said:
It won't.MarqueeMark said:
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.Scott_P said:
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."0 -
@Philip_Thompson he clearly did not make it a confidence vote as he hasn’t resigned.0
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The party is temporarily (and in some cases quite unwillingly) united behind a single policy.Philip_Thompson said:
The party isn't divided. The party is clear.Nigelb said:
Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.
No division.
If you think every MP, let alone every member or voter, is happy about it, then you are either a fool or you have no real interest in the party beyond its Brexit policy.
As for there being no division, LOL.1 -
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.0 -
Good post.Alistair said:FTPT
UNS is going to be super rubbish in Scotland. You have the twin Axes of Brexit and Sindy.dyedwoolie said:
Swing is LD to SNP on those numbers, Fife stays SNP on unsAlistair said:
My rough guess on those numbers,CarlottaVance said:
Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South
Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously)
Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?
Cons hold Berwickshire, Dunfriesshire and Aberdeenshire West
Lab back to unicycle territory
In Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine the Con win was based on the LibDem vote going from 11,812 in 2015 to 4,461 in 2017 and the Lab Vote going from 2,487 to 5,706.
The SNP-to-Lab switchers are going to switch back as are Lib Dem to Con Switchers. It will be far closer than UNS suggests.
In Fife NE there are over fourteen thousand Con and Lab voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze, ten thousand of them Con voters.
Fife NE is a 100% Lib Dem gain.0 -
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
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From what we know of Ken Clarke's choice of leisure wear, I am sure that he is a bit of a lad...Alanbrooke said:
https://twitter.com/il0venostalgia/status/357964834819694592?s=191 -
Yes, it says May cared about the Tory party and wanted to keep it intact.Philip_Thompson said:Says more about May than Boris.
BoZo views it only as a temporarily convenient vehicle for his ambition, and is prepared to burn it to the ground.0 -
Would be interesting to know who the spinners think was behind Leave winning now.TheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be Cummings when I said it was Farage. Now Cummings is the enemy, and so is Boris so it can’t be those two either. Banks is too dirty. It can’t be Cameron’s fault for losing as he is beyond criticism, same for Osborne...
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Needs more than radar in Ayrshire , it hasn't stopped for agesAnabobazina said:
People on this forum really need to learn to read a radar. It will soon stop.TheScreamingEagles said:It is raining at Old Trafford.
Bravo ECB.
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.0 -
A whole load of Labour and Tory moderates resigning not just party memberships of many years, but the physical and emotional input many put into that support, and the sadness and psychological impact of losing that chunk of their lives. So the decent thing would be to put a metaphorical arm around the shoulder of those posters on here, and not even say any words, just that metaphorical arm.
💙❤️
Then why do I actually feel differently? That these resignations are wrong. That I want to shout coward! Go back and fight. Much like when Syrians leapt from dingys on Greek beaches and the locals shouted cowards! Go back and fight!
Because there is an argument, the moderates run away leaving the populists, the ideological moralists in charge, things can only get worse not better. If some moderates are still there fighting, should you not still be part of it with them?0 -
Rory is a thoughtful sort who enjoys walking and has written a book about the natural beauty of the Borders.eek said:
Independent Conservative won't cause confusion on a ballot paper of:-Philip_Thompson said:
Can he? I thought it was illegal now to use another parties name or cause confusion post Literal Democrats.Big_G_NorthWales said:Rory Stewart talking sense and will stand as a conservative (independent) at the next GE
Brexit Party
Conservative Party
Independent Conservative..
He could stand as a Conservationist.0 -
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But if Johnson accepts the delay legislation Farage will say that he intends to bring back a version of May's deal and betray the one true Brexit. "You can't trust Boris" is going to be a pretty powerful mantra for all the opposition parties when the election finally materialises. Because everyone knows it's true.Mysticrose said:Every day, possibly every hour, that this goes on the more Johnson looks like he has lost control. He badly badly needs to accept the extension to A50 legislation, whack it through and call for the General Election.
Otherwise he's going to make Mrs May look positively strong and stable.
https://news.sky.com/story/mps-take-control-of-commons-agenda-to-delay-no-deal-brexit-as-election-threat-looms-118016870 -
No you just don't understand our constitution.Gallowgate said:@Philip_Thompson he clearly did not make it a confidence vote as he hasn’t resigned.
Losing a vote of confidence didn't trigger a PM resigning. 1979 the PM stayed on until an election. It triggered an election.
Due to the FTPA Boris needs to table a motion for an election. He has done that.
Therefore confidence principles fulfilled.0 -
Who'd have thought an entitled slob behaving like an entitled slob would be so newsworthy
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/jacob-rees-mogg-photo-viral-lounging-house-of-commons-205321338.html0 -
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.0 -
Either that or a connoisseur of Japanese noodlesFoxy said:
From what we know of Ken Clarke's choice of leisure wear, I am sure that he is a bit of a lad...0 -
It probably will essentially eliminate that arbitrage. If RPI is made fit for purpose, there might well be pressure to switch items now indexed by reference to CPI back to RPI.noneoftheabove said:
The govt seems to currently benefit from the arbitrage between the higher RPI (generally for incoming funds) and lower CPI (generally for outgoing funds). How would CPIH change things? Good or bad?AlastairMeeks said:In huge news for geeks, the government looks set to abandon RPI, consulting on effectively redefining it as CPIH from 2025-30. This has implications for things as diverse as private sector pension scheme increases to rail fares to the value of gilts.
It's possibly the most important thing that will be announced today and no one will notice.0 -
The Party isn't some Borg Collective but not should it be. It is and should be a broad church but on confidence motions it should be united.Nigelb said:
The party is temporarily (and in some cases quite unwillingly) united behind a single policy.Philip_Thompson said:
The party isn't divided. The party is clear.Nigelb said:
Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.
No division.
If you think every MP, let alone every member or voter, is happy about it, then you are either a fool or you have no real interest in the party beyond its Brexit policy.
As for there being no division, LOL.
I couldn't support May so I quit the party when she was leader. Same principle.0 -
See my comment below - while it looks like there is enough time there really isn't.Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.0 -
Conservatives officially down to 289 MP's on the parliamentary website :
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/0 -
How wrong can one be. Also Quebec was bought off and Canada paid the money and did whet it promised re giving them powers , cash , etc , etc. Westminster reneged on their promises and have put the boot in , reduced powers and cheated Scotland. It will be next year latest and likely to be a different result to the last one.Byronic said:noneoftheabove said:
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.HYUFD said:Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again0 -
Unlikely. But more of a risk is that there are another 22 conservative anti-no-dealers in the unlikely event that the Johnson Government gets 330 MPs.nichomar said:One of the more interesting posts this morning was the one pointing out that the Tory party it has not rid itself of all the anti no dealers, there was one on this morning saying she was still willing to give Johnson a chance to deliver a deal but if he didn’t she didn’t know what she would do. We may well see the last act of this parliament being to revoke article 50.
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The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.eristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?0 -
Not sure about that. The timeframe you have laid out is right, but if a new PM had a strong majority then the EU would simply agree with him not to offer an extension. He could go through some motions so as not to break the law, but I think common sense would prevail. There’s also a good chance the majority would be there in time to respond to the offer of an extension, if one were made.eek said:
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.0 -
Hmm this is where I'm not sure. I get all the getting on message stuff but if that speech is after October 31st then I'm not sure that people will believe him. Because we have already had the no ifs no buts do or die speeches from him and if the next one such is delivered on November 1st and beyond he sets himself up (a la May) to being ridiculed. For him I believe it really is do or die that Brexit is delivered by October 31st.MarqueeMark said:
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."Mysticrose said:
It won't.MarqueeMark said:
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.Scott_P said:
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."0 -
The Quebec example is more than a straw. Talk of a second IndyRef already elicits a huge groan among many. A third would be unconscionable. It will be do or die for the SNP.Theuniondivvie said:
As alluded to previously Quebec is one of the several straws to which Unionists cling. Obviously the '2nd ref killed the Nats stone dead' schtick is comforting to the fearful, but I can't really see the comparison with regard to history, culture, politics or constitution to name but four.noneoftheabove said:
I am exhausted trying to keep up with UK politics so dont particularly follow Scottish specific politics but from a mathematical angle 49% is not a problem for a separatist party, particularly when the direction of travel is in their favour.Byronic said:noneoftheabove said:
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.HYUFD said:Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
The idea that Scotland is going to recoil from indy because English politicians (with even their Scottish satraps looking on aghast) have made an almighty fuckup of Brexit is an interesting one. If nothing else it provides a useful template for what not to do.0 -
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?0 -
Call me crazy but if the argument is a Boris-led No Deal Brexit is going to be the final straw that breaks the Union's back then the fact no deal hasn't happened yet is probably why there's no sudden massive Yes majority in current polls. It's not clear yet if there's actually going to be a Boris No-deal Brexit.
Like GE polling everything's in a state of total flux whilst we wait to see how Brexit actually pans out - because frankly it doesn't look like anyone has a clue. What the GE polls look like today are not going to lead to the same election results if we vote when we've extended the Brexit deadline or if we've passed it and already crashed out with no deal. I don't see the independence polling being much different on that respect.
What looks likely is we'll have a General Election at which point we'll either have a clear and sizeable Boris majority in which case it will be No Deal, or we'll be somewhere where we are now with hung parliaments/minority governments, and still no-one will know for sure what's happening with Brexit, and we will then probably have more faffing around in the run up to the next extension point, and that will likely continue to show in the indy polling.
In the meantime the general uncertainty and chaos around the situation is edging Yes towards the lead, but I don't see why we're going to suddenly see 60% Yes polls whilst Brexit is not actually decided and everything is still very much a hypothetical.0 -
If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.0
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We have lots of spare lambs going a begging soonAlanbrooke said:0 -
Give them the bridge-tunnel combo to link them to the rest of the UK. OK, the Beaufort Trench and its vast tonnage of nasty weaponry mean it will have to go north or south of the shortest route, but a detailed feasability study should be enough to buy them off.eristdoof said:If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.
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There are possibly ways around that. I think the swearing-in could happen at a much greater pace if necessary, potentially en bloc. And (I believe) legislation can be considered prior to a Queen's Speech.eek said:
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.0 -
well here in Germany, everyone I speak to thinks Brexit is bonkers, no deal Brexit is completely Bonkers, still hope that Britain will somehow not go through with it. But most of all find it impossible to believe that Boris Johnson is Prime Minister.kingbongo said:
you can't believe the amount of "wtf" comments I'm getting at work this morning - everyone thinks the UK has gone completely nuts and it's impossible to disagree. Failure to brexit will be a disaster, just as much as brexit will be a disaster but the view from Denmark is - leave or revoke by 31 October - Nobody I speak to wants the UK to be given any more time and I wholeheartedly agree.Casino_Royale said:
At least we're entertaining Europe.Gallowgate said:
A close friend of mine in Finland sent a video of Finnish news coming live from the HOC along with a gif of Michael Jackson eating popcorn.Casino_Royale said:If it's of any interest, last night's dramas have made headline news on multiple Bulgarian national and local radio stations.
I've been quizzed about it twice this morning.
So people generally very happy that Johnson suffered a "major defeat" (as reported) in parliament and has lost his majority, I would say, even if they don't follow all the details of what is going on.1 -
In my case I resigned last night for three main reasonsegg said:A whole load of Labour and Tory moderates resigning not just party memberships of many years, but the physical and emotional input many put into that support, and the sadness and psychological impact of losing that chunk of their lives. So the decent thing would be to put a metaphorical arm around the shoulder of those posters on here, and not even say any words, just that metaphorical arm.
💙❤️
Then why do I actually feel differently? That these resignations are wrong. That I want to shout coward! Go back and fight. Much like when Syrians leapt from dingys on Greek beaches and the locals shouted cowards! Go back and fight!
Because there is an argument, the moderates run away leaving the populists, the ideological moralists in charge, things can only get worse not better. If some moderates are still there fighting, should you not still be part of it with them?
The treatment of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart and others. If they cannot be in the party why should I
The picture of entitlement and disrespect of Jacob Rees Mogg lounging on the green benches was just too idiotic politically and in every other way
The influence of Dominic Cummings and his Farage style tribute act1 -
The comment about Article 28 in the header is very true. In fact it is still hurting the Tories. I was with a gay couple who run their own business yesterday. (In Brighton, where else.) They were under the impression that this was something that Tony Blair heroically crusaded against. I am old enough to remember he did no such bloody thing, but that's not how the story is told.0
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Rees Mogg has not adapted well to ministerial office. He clearly struggles with being questioned and that photo just oozed entitlement. You can get away with doing that kind of thing on the backbenches, but not on the front.Roger said:Who'd have thought an entitled slob behaving like an entitled slob would be so newsworthy
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/jacob-rees-mogg-photo-viral-lounging-house-of-commons-205321338.html
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Doubtful, the likes of Lee Rowley and Ben Bradley were produced as new Tories at GE17.eristdoof said:
Unlikely. But more of a risk is that there are another 22 conservative anti-no-dealers in the unlikely event that the Johnson Government gets 330 MPs.nichomar said:One of the more interesting posts this morning was the one pointing out that the Tory party it has not rid itself of all the anti no dealers, there was one on this morning saying she was still willing to give Johnson a chance to deliver a deal but if he didn’t she didn’t know what she would do. We may well see the last act of this parliament being to revoke article 50.
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If the bill passes which prevents a 'no deal' I hope it happens before the government sign off their £100 million deal with their chosen ad agencies. Otherwise there's going to be a stink which will make Greyling's £15 wasted million on ferries look like very small beer.0
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"He could go through some motions so as not to break the law,..."ab195 said:
Not sure about that. The timeframe you have laid out is right, but if a new PM had a strong majority then the EU would simply agree with him not to offer an extension. He could go through some motions so as not to break the law, but I think common sense would prevail. There’s also a good chance the majority would be there in time to respond to the offer of an extension, if one were made.eek said:
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.
What "motions" would they be then? The EU are hardly going to help Mr Johnson enact a No-Deal Brexit.0 -
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Yes, Boris is a proven liar, time and time and time again.Scott_P said:
"Yes, I know I said i would deliver Brexit by Halloween, but this time I really, really, really mean it...MarqueeMark said:Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169140226213720075
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169140228055085056
Anyone who believes a single word that exits his lips is a clown, a idiot and a fool.0 -
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4D chess mate.Scott_P said:1 -
Morning all
Oddly enough, for all the histrionics, the day went pretty much as expected. It was always probable Boris would lose the vote and the rebellion was always going to be about 20 MPs.
The idea of Philip Hammond standing as an independent Conservative in Runnymede & Weybridge against an Official Conservative candidate parachuted in is too ludicrous for words.
Yesterday was also the day the Deal died. For all the weasel words, Boris is now solely about a No Deal Brexit on 31/10. I suspect he and Cummings believe the silent majority of Overwithers will support him and will even tolerate some immediate pain - perhaps. Those who think Boris is still serious about a Deal and support him for that must now realise that is a chimera.
The problem with advocating leaving with a Deal is if the WA doesn't work you need a different one and that requires the EU to play ball or A50 to be revoked and re-instated.
As for the anti-No Dealers, they seem willing to turn the screw forcing Johnson to seek an extension which he can't. Assuming Johnson is forced to resign, what then? Can anyone command a majority or will we have to have a GE as there will be no alternative?0 -
That same poster was making up facts (ie. lying) about the Con Maj odds being EVS two days ago.AlastairMeeks said:
The last matched odds on Betfair for a Conservative overall majority are 2.76 (7/4 in old money). You're entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts.basicbridge said:
Well the odds are the odds. That is still the odds on bet. The interesting thing is that the odds on a tory maj have been shortening and are now nearly 50/50.Nigel_Foremain said:
I don't have a crystal ball, but my guess (based on following politics for 40+ years) is another hung parliamentbasicbridge said:
Odds on a tory maj have been shorteningin the last couple of days and are approaching 50%. So it looks to me as if HYUFD is more on the money than you are, actually.Nigel_Foremain said:
Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on youHYUFD said:I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
Odds of a Lab maj are at 12/1
Which suggest that all the piss and wind currently on the MSM, PB etc cuts little ice with the general public.
That is the problem with echo chambers.
Dangerous having such a plainly misleading poster on a betting website.0 -
The DUP will never allow a no deal Brexit - they know as well as anyone it's a short cut to a united Ireland. They will always find reasons for blocking it. The DUP is a sectarian-based party dedicated to preserving the union and that aim will always trump Brexit for them.eristdoof said:If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.
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No one could beat Ratner - he is the diamond standard in brand trashingRoger said:How to trash your brand in less time than it took Gerald Ratner
1. Sack your most trusted faces-Hammond Clark Stewart Soames-by text message
2. Appoint as leader the most distrusted MP in Parliament
3. Convince the public that your leader is working under the instruction of a modern day Rasputin who believes he's more important than parliament's tried and trusted institutions and people
4. Have the face of your flagship policy lolling on the parliamentary benches as though at his private Gentlemans club
5. Send your least attractive MPs to instruct the media how you have the right to do exactly what you like despite having a majority of -22.
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https://twitter.com/KeithSimpsonMP/status/1169131207864573952Philip_Thompson said:
The Party isn't some Borg Collective but not should it be. It is and should be a broad church but on confidence motions it should be united.Nigelb said:
The party is temporarily (and in some cases quite unwillingly) united behind a single policy.Philip_Thompson said:
The party isn't divided. The party is clear.Nigelb said:
Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.
No division.
If you think every MP, let alone every member or voter, is happy about it, then you are either a fool or you have no real interest in the party beyond its Brexit policy.
As for there being no division, LOL.
I couldn't support May so I quit the party when she was leader. Same principle.0 -
How would he have purged Grieve and co then?Scott_P said:
There's no point going into an election without doing that first.0 -
Who will choose the replacement candidates for the 21? At least a few of the ocnsistuency associaiotns are presumably not yet infiltrated by the crazed loons of the English naiotnalist hard right so could end up making choices that would be inconvenient for Johnson. I guess it will all have to be done from HQ.0
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Can you explain to me how this works?Philip_Thompson said:
The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.eristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Either the law needs to be repaled or a new law needs to be passed.
This is essentially the same thing. Neither can occur before a Queens Speech.
0 -
“Piss off “ - is a good summary of his judgement 😂😂😂Scott_P said:0 -
Z
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?Danny565 said:
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?0 -
The Clown even manages to make Richard Leonard look like minister material. Quite an achievement.Foxy said:
I will have my popcorn ready.Ishmael_Z said:Will we get pmq today?
The car crash of Bozo Johnson is compelling yet painful to watch. What were the Tories thinking when choosing a man who make Corbyn look Prime Ministerial?0 -
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?isam said:Z
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?Danny565 said:
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?0 -
Toom Tabard from exile playing her broken record yet again.CarlottaVance said:
Scottish Nationalism is so civic....and joyous.....RochdalePioneers said:What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism0 -
Serious question: Has someone told HYUFD that he does not need to use sub-samples to analyse Scottish polls. He has got a very recent one.0
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That's what I would expect, but they did vote with the government yesterday.anothernick said:
The DUP will never allow a no deal Brexit - they know as well as anyone it's a short cut to a united Ireland. They will always find reasons for blocking it. The DUP is a sectarian-based party dedicated to preserving the union and that aim will always trump Brexit for them.eristdoof said:If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.
0 -
At least one constituency party has already been told that candidates will be selected by central officeSouthamObserver said:Who will choose the replacement candidates for the 21? At least a few of the ocnsistuency associaiotns are presumably not yet infiltrated by the crazed loons of the English naiotnalist hard right so could end up making choices that would be inconvenient for Johnson. I guess it will all have to be done from HQ.
0 -
This has always been absolutely clear. And now Johnson knows that he is tied completely to the populist, English nationalist, hard right, that's where he will take the Tories while thanking whoever he prays to (an image of himself, presumably) that Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour party.Scott_P said:
Yes, it says May cared about the Tory party and wanted to keep it intact.Philip_Thompson said:Says more about May than Boris.
BoZo views it only as a temporarily convenient vehicle for his ambition, and is prepared to burn it to the ground.
0 -
Remember we’re talking about a scenario in which he has a good majority and a clear mandate to leave. The EU wouldn’t want to be silly about things, that’s just not how diplomacy works. There would be literally no point in going through the motions of offering an extension like that, and Boris would have enough allies on the Council, who’d have to work with him going forward, to make sure of it.eristdoof said:
"He could go through some motions so as not to break the law,..."ab195 said:
Not sure about that. The timeframe you have laid out is right, but if a new PM had a strong majority then the EU would simply agree with him not to offer an extension. He could go through some motions so as not to break the law, but I think common sense would prevail. There’s also a good chance the majority would be there in time to respond to the offer of an extension, if one were made.eek said:
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.
What "motions" would they be then? The EU are hardly going to help Mr Johnson enact a No-Deal Brexit.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Anything less than a decent Tory majority and you’re right, the Act will bite.0 -
Agree - it puts Farage in a very difficult position on whether to stand candidates. Although he can finally get that peerage if they don't stand....Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.0 -
Everybody is welcome , however I think you are talking about the unionists in reality. They indeed are far from welcoming.Burgessian said:
LOL. Just wait til you meet Scottish nationalism.RochdalePioneers said:What recent events in politics have done is absolutely firmed up our plans as a family for our future.
We're moving to Scotland. I think the UK in its current form is finished, and the nasty bigoted form of English nationalism represented by leave/JRM prostrate isn't something I want my kids to have to live with.
Won't happen straight away, but the seed has been firmly planted0 -
Amateur. That's not an insult by the way. I'm sure he'd be proud of it.Roger said:Who'd have thought an entitled slob behaving like an entitled slob would be so newsworthy
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/jacob-rees-mogg-photo-viral-lounging-house-of-commons-205321338.html
If only there was an alternative that had an idealistic belief in parliament as the representation of all the people's views, something many have died for.
0 -
Good point! There are other provisions in the Bill but I think most of them fall away if the Commons resolves to leave without a deal.Philip_Thompson said:
The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.eristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?0 -
Neither need to occur.eristdoof said:
Can you explain to me how this works?Philip_Thompson said:
The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.eristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Either the law needs to be repaled or a new law needs to be passed.
This is essentially the same thing. Neither can occur before a Queens Speech.
The law provides for three get outs.
1. If the Commons agrees to a deal (and the Lords just debates one) then no need to request an extension.
2. If the Commons agrees to no deal (and the Lords just debates that) then no need to request an extension.
3. If the EU offers an extension the Commons (not the PM) may reject it.
Boris can say in the election that if he has a majority we will leave Deal or no deal and still honour the law.0 -
Haha! I know it is many times, I asked in case someone knew exactly how manyDanny565 said:
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?isam said:Z
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?Danny565 said:
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?0 -
Scott_P said:
Sad day for Scottish justice system: London could move decisively towards dictatorship and the College of Justice would let them.1 -
It’s the great frustration of our times isn’t it? A new Labour Leader would walk an election.SouthamObserver said:
This has always been absolutely clear. And now Johnson knows that he is tied completely to the populist, English nationalist, hard right, that's where he will take the Tories while thanking whoever he prays to (an image of himself, presumably) that Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour party.Scott_P said:
Yes, it says May cared about the Tory party and wanted to keep it intact.Philip_Thompson said:Says more about May than Boris.
BoZo views it only as a temporarily convenient vehicle for his ambition, and is prepared to burn it to the ground.0 -
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“Judge pops Cherry”StuartDickson said:Scott_P said:
Sad day for Scottish justice system: London could move decisively towards dictatorship and the College of Justice would let them.0 -
This was Corbyn, a whole two days ago:Danny565 said:
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?isam said:Z
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?Danny565 said:
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-backs-election-under-19165664
But Mr Corbyn today reiterated his long-standing calls for an election - when asked if he would back one "under any circumstance, at any time".0 -
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1169177328649457664
Sensible really, ignoring the rights and the wrongs of the action, it's clearly 'legal' to do it.0 -
And when can Boris do that.Philip_Thompson said:
The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.eristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Only after the new Parliament is sworn in and a Queen's speech voted on.
As I said before that takes 16 or so days.0 -
Good start to the day for Boris, but what an utter utter waste of time. Gina Miller and co should hang their heads in shameStuartDickson said:Scott_P said:
Sad day for Scottish justice system: London could move decisively towards dictatorship and the College of Justice would let them.0 -
As expected... No court will ever intervene in this.Scott_P said:
MPs can legislate if they want to set boundaries on Proroguing parliament (and its amazing they never have done) but the courts won't intervene.0 -
The DUP have gotten themselves into a bigger existential crisis than the Tories, and are even less self awareanothernick said:
The DUP will never allow a no deal Brexit - they know as well as anyone it's a short cut to a united Ireland. They will always find reasons for blocking it. The DUP is a sectarian-based party dedicated to preserving the union and that aim will always trump Brexit for them.eristdoof said:If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.
0 -
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It was commentators that said it needed 60% not the Government, they are getting more popular after 12 years not less, they have NO opposition, it is nothing like Quebec where Canada gave them powers and money and kept their promises. There is no conundrum for Sturgeon , she will be out if she does not have a referendum.Burgessian said:
This is the SNP conundrum which is made more acute by the surprising fact that "Yes" has failed to break through the 50% barrier so far. This really ought to be peak polling for them. If they lose a second IndyRef its all over for them. Sturgeon, for all the rhetoric, is genuinely torn.HYUFD said:
No, for a separatist party 49% for independence excuding Don't Knows is bad news.noneoftheabove said:
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.HYUFD said:Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
In Quebec in 1995 the pro independence side had a narrow lead in final polls excluding Don't Knows in their second independence referendum but No won as Don't Knows went No and No won 51% to 49%.
Quebec has never had another independence referendum again and is now firmly in Canada with devomax
It would be "do or die" as there will certainly not be a third referendum as Scotland will turn its back on the subject as the Quebecois did, and the Nats will start suffering from the effects of long-term incumbency at Holyrood. And we haven't had the Salmond trial yet.
My recollection is that there was talk of a precondition of a second IndyRef being Yes polling in the region of 60% in order to demonstrate the "settled will". We don't seem to be quite there yet.0 -
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And declare his financial interest?MarqueeMark said:
Agree - it puts Farage in a very difficult position on whether to stand candidates. Although he can finally get that peerage if they don't stand....Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.0 -
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It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.SouthamObserver said:
Rees Mogg has not adapted well to ministerial office. He clearly struggles with being questioned and that photo just oozed entitlement. You can get away with doing that kind of thing on the backbenches, but not on the front.Roger said:Who'd have thought an entitled slob behaving like an entitled slob would be so newsworthy
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/jacob-rees-mogg-photo-viral-lounging-house-of-commons-205321338.html0 -
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.0 -
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Too bloody right.TGOHF said:0 -
With the departures to the Lib Dems, Change UK and the whip being taken away from various wets I think if the Tories were to replace the same number of MPs that May won in 2017 it'd be enough.ab195 said:
Remember we’re talking about a scenario in which he has a good majority and a clear mandate to leave. The EU wouldn’t want to be silly about things, that’s just not how diplomacy works. There would be literally no point in going through the motions of offering an extension like that, and Boris would have enough allies on the Council, who’d have to work with him going forward, to make sure of it.eristdoof said:
"He could go through some motions so as not to break the law,..."ab195 said:
Not sure about that. The timeframe you have laid out is right, but if a new PM had a strong majority then the EU would simply agree with him not to offer an extension. He could go through some motions so as not to break the law, but I think common sense would prevail. There’s also a good chance the majority would be there in time to respond to the offer of an extension, if one were made.eek said:
Parliament takes about 10 days from the election to swear in MPs and prepare for a Queen's speech. That speech then takes 6 days for votes before legislation can begineristdoof said:
The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.MarqueeMark said:
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
So there isn't enough time. At best Boris could leave with No Deal in mid November.
What "motions" would they be then? The EU are hardly going to help Mr Johnson enact a No-Deal Brexit.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Anything less than a decent Tory majority and you’re right, the Act will bite.
Tory HQ can see the same MRP models and know the numbers are likely tight after a GE between the basic forces of leave and remain in the HoC (Even if Labour go backwards) hence the purge was probably necessary. The DUP would likely come back on board for a Johnson premiership, they'd lose Hermon for the sake of "No deal" counting of course though.0 -
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?Scott_P said:
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.0 -
I mean, are we really going to play that game after all the statements Boris has gone back on already?Endillion said:
This was Corbyn, a whole two days ago:Danny565 said:
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?isam said:Z
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?Danny565 said:
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?Tissue_Price said:
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.Charles said:
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.Scott_P said:CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-backs-election-under-19165664
But Mr Corbyn today reiterated his long-standing calls for an election - when asked if he would back one "under any circumstance, at any time".
Corbyn can easily reverse-ferret if he wants to. He can dress up the reason for demanding a long election campaign with ostensibly principled reasons. Like "this is the most important election in a generation, the public need a long campaign to get all the information". Or "there'll be too much uncertainty for business to hold an election just a couple of weeks before a potential No Deal Brexit, we need to get the extension first so that businesses have more time to prepare".0 -
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
I did not mean the direct replacements of last night's "rebels". I mean that last night there were almost certainly some MPs who did not rebel because i) they did not need to and were coyed by having the whip removed, and ii) don't want to lose their job in a month's time. These MPs will either be reelected or lose to LD/LAB/SNP. After the election they will consider themselves safe as an MP because the next election is not until 2025, and a lot will happen in those 5 and a half years.Pulpstar said:
Doubtful, the likes of Lee Rowley and Ben Bradley were produced as new Tories at GE17.eristdoof said:
Unlikely. But more of a risk is that there are another 22 conservative anti-no-dealers in the unlikely event that the Johnson Government gets 330 MPs.nichomar said:One of the more interesting posts this morning was the one pointing out that the Tory party it has not rid itself of all the anti no dealers, there was one on this morning saying she was still willing to give Johnson a chance to deliver a deal but if he didn’t she didn’t know what she would do. We may well see the last act of this parliament being to revoke article 50.
I do not expect this number to be 22MPs, but I do expect it to be more than a few. A lot of Conservative MPs are very against a no-deal Brexit.0 -
Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?
IIUIC they were:
* Alberto Costa
* Simon Hoare
* David Lidington
* Paul Masterton
* Caroline Spelman
* Tom Tugendhat
What a bunch of hypocrites!0
This discussion has been closed.