OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
..and I don't think she has yet had the last laugh. The extremists may have overplayed themselves somewhat. It is like one of those games allegedly played in dorms at Eton. Boris will get to eat the biscuit
I choose not to google that. If it’s anything like Dave Cameron and porking the pig, I really don’t want to know.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
St Caroline of Lucas appears to be on the march for higher standards. No more lounging on government benches for Rees-Mogg. Straighten your back, no slouching. @Ave_it marked her card last night.
Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.
What election? What activists?
It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan
People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
No evidence of that round here with people like David Herdson sitting it out. Enjoy Moggmentum.
PB is not the Tory party, or the country.
No, but there are a number of us on here who have held positions of responsibility within the party locally or nationally. We therefore know that there are a substantial number who will not come back until this cabal is no longer influential
Incidentally, Nigel Farage was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 18.
That would certainly make the IndyRef2 market interesting. The Brexit Party MEP in Scotland told a hustings that his party was neutral on the Scottish independence question. 😳
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
The good news for me is that I shall be in my Hungarian country place from the weekend, plucking figs straight from the tree.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped
I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.
In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.
Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.
A tremendous thread header by TSE.
Byronic you're a bit more sensible, less manic, when you're sober. Presumably we have an hour or two's grace?
I'd like to find myself agreeing with this post but I still think you're only half right. First, I'm sceptical that Johnson will benefit from a 'patriotic surge.' He already looks like a loser. He's out of control. He has an idiot advising him. He's alienated a significant part of his party. He looks far from a sure touch. And in a 5 or 6 week campaign he is going to look like the fool he is. Most of us on here have seen through the magician's sleight of hand. It's only a matter of time until the public do. Though calling Johnson a magician is an insult to them.
Second, a disunited party never wins elections. And, oh boy, is this tory party riven. During an election campaign? All hell will break loose. You just wait and see. It will be civil war in front of the British people.
So, given those things, you seriously believe that Johnson will poll more Thant 42.4%?
42.4%!!! That's what Mrs May got in 2017 and you seriously think he will increase that voteshare?!
Edit. Just seen you are referencing it to his current polling. Which brings us back to the thread header by TSE. If he's falling off Mrs May's polling level, where is he going to gain these seats? The Labour heartland ...? If that's Cummings' strategy he's a moron.
I'm surprised you don't understand how FPTP works. It is not decided on national vote share. Because of the changed configuration of parties and shares since 2017, he is likely to be able to gain a parliamentary majority with less than 40% of the votes.
If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly. Big if though
It is amazing people think Hammond and Clarke have sacrificed their careers for this bill but will let the PM destroy it in the Lords. They would simply change the PM if forced to by further shenanigans. It is obvious. The bill will pass and become law. The interesting question is who will be PM when it happens.
If the Lords talk it out to Saturday as mooted prorogation kicks in Monday and Boris is untouchable till mid October and is not bound by benn. Its whether the Lords can achieve this that's the question. Theres a plan, will it work?
It doesnt matter. Even if you are right and he is untouchable til October what then? He has a month of office but no power, fails to get anything done with the EU who have no incentive to give him an inch, and gets no confidenced with an alternative PM, probably Corbyn who enacts the legislation.
The lesson of the last year is parliament is sovereign, if the executive insists on a policy strongly at odds with the Commons it will keep losing. Each time it loses it loses further power. It needs to accept the will of the Commons.
» show previous quotes As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.
I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible
Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.
12 years in government and still popular. Unique in contemporary European politics, probably in world politics.
Fully understandable if you believe (as I do) that people vote for the least worst party.
Scottish Labour really is the gift that keeps on giving.
If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly. Big if though
The refusal to request Queen's consent looks a more likely way of scuppering it. But being seen to be forced into an election may be his way out now.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
I am exhausted trying to keep up with UK politics so dont particularly follow Scottish specific politics but from a mathematical angle 49% is not a problem for a separatist party, particularly when the direction of travel is in their favour.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
The good news for me is that I shall be in my Hungarian country place from the weekend, plucking figs straight from the tree.
Hmmmm. Corbyn shows all the fear of an executioner choosing when to drop the axe on Boris’ neck. Patience Boris, release will come soon enough!
But how long will Corbyn’s unCorbyn-like restraint last? A day? Three days? Til Monday?
Either until Royal Assent for the anti-no deal bill is granted, or until just after the EU council in October when Parliament approves the change to Exit Day in the EU Withdrawal Act.
I think he would prefer that the election is held after October 31st, while we are still in the EU, so that Boris can be shown not to have been able to deliver on his promises - all subsequent promises made in the election campaign can then be compared to his track record of promising things he is unable to deliver. "You can't trust a word Boris says..." they will say.
Yes - once an extension has been forced there is no incentive for any none Tory to have an election prior to October 31st - in fact the election would be a lot easier
The Tory people who are leaving are those who have campaigned and know how to campaign. The campaigners who are left don't have the experience and may well be people you don't want near actual voters.
Edit to add although it's likely that Labour has the exact same problem.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped
I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.
In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.
Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.
A tremendous thread header by TSE.
Byronic you're a bit more sensible, less manic, when you're sober. Presumably we have an hour or two's grace?
I'd like to find myself agreeing with this post but I still think you're only half right. First, I'm sceptical that Johnson will benefit from a 'patriotic surge.' He already looks like a loser. He's out of control. He has an idiot advising him. He's alienated a significant part of his party. He looks far from a sure touch. And in a 5 or 6 week campaign he is going to look like the fool he is. Most of us on here have seen through the magician's sleight of hand. It's only a matter of time until the public do. Though calling Johnson a magician is an insult to them.
Second, a disunited party never wins elections. And, oh boy, is this tory party riven. During an election campaign? All hell will break loose. You just wait and see. It will be civil war in front of the British people.
So, given those things, you seriously believe that Johnson will poll more Thant 42.4%?
42.4%!!! That's what Mrs May got in 2017 and you seriously think he will increase that voteshare?!
Edit. Just seen you are referencing it to his current polling. Which brings us back to the thread header by TSE. If he's falling off Mrs May's polling level, where is he going to gain these seats? The Labour heartland ...? If that's Cummings' strategy he's a moron.
6% of 2017 Labour voters voting Tory with Yougov today, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters voting Corbyn Labour. Tories have a 10% lead overall.
Hmmmm just for fun Benn passes, corbyn keeps Boris in place to make him accept the extension. At the very last moment before the bill states he has to accept the entire government resign and recommend HMQ send for Corbyn. Corbyn is made PM but being a dithering twat doesn't know how to accept the extension offered and is in breach of UK law as set out in the Benn (up yours Boris) act 2019 Just.for.fun
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Indeed. I thought Byronic was supposed to be a sybarite.
You appear to be confusing me with someone else. It is not unknown.
..and I don't think she has yet had the last laugh. The extremists may have overplayed themselves somewhat. It is like one of those games allegedly played in dorms at Eton. Boris will get to eat the biscuit
I choose not to google that. If it’s anything like Dave Cameron and porking the pig, I really don’t want to know.
Best not to, but Bozo's new best buddy's surname (you know the bloke who is supposed to be the great strategist) works quite well with this particular metaphore
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
This is clearly wrong. Brexit is the exception, not the rule. A better comparison would be the split of Czechoslovakia, which most people didn't want but which most people quickly became rather happy with.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
The good news for me is that I shall be in my Hungarian country place from the weekend, plucking figs straight from the tree.
I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on you
Odds on a tory maj have been shorteningin the last couple of days and are approaching 50%. So it looks to me as if HYUFD is more on the money than you are, actually.
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
On this we can agree 100%. An Ashes Test in Manchester in September is insane.
Every 21st century Old Trafford Test has been drawn. Weather here is well known. Good to have a North West Test and not have Headingley as our closest but it shouldn't be in September.
Why couldn't Old Trafford have been the first Test in Summer and have eg Lords and The Oval as the autumnal Tests if we need to be playing The Ashes in September?
A timely reminder that the remain alliance may have won the battle, but whatever the next steps, whichever side evenutally wins the war, the country loses!
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Indeed. I thought Byronic was supposed to be a sybarite.
You appear to be confusing me with someone else. It is not unknown.
I guess you're more likely to be making cocoa for Kingsley Amis.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
The good news for me is that I shall be in my Hungarian country place from the weekend, plucking figs straight from the tree.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
No, for a separatist party 49% for independence excuding Don't Knows is bad news.
In Quebec in 1995 the pro independence side had a narrow lead in final polls excluding Don't Knows in their second independence referendum but No won as Don't Knows went No and No won 51% to 49%.
Quebec has never had another independence referendum again and is now firmly in Canada with devomax
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
On this we can agree 100%. An Ashes Test in Manchester in September is insane.
Every 21st century Old Trafford Test has been drawn. Weather here is well known. Good to have a North West Test and not have Headingley as our closest but it shouldn't be in September.
Why couldn't Old Trafford have been the first Test in Summer and have eg Lords and The Oval as the autumnal Tests if we need to be playing The Ashes in September?
Meanwhile sunny here in Brum, and no rain forecast all day.
Lab refuses to approve a GE until after 31st as only way of making sure govt do not renege on law. Nov 4th, Lab VoNC govt in knowledge deadline is gone and they have until whenever to worry about no deal. Either Labour led gov forms and immediately calls a GE or 14 days go by, no govt forms, GE is called. The Thursday 6 weeks after that 14 days? Boxing day. Good GE day: people already off work (sorry council workers who have to do the count), families are together so intergenerational discussion on which direction the country should go, New Year, New Govt, start 2020 tabula rasa (yeah, right).
I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on you
Odds on a tory maj have been shorteningin the last couple of days and are approaching 50%. So it looks to me as if HYUFD is more on the money than you are, actually.
Odds of a Lab maj are at 12/1
I don't have a crystal ball, but my guess (based on following politics for 40+ years) is another hung parliament
Incidentally, Nigel Farage was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 18.
In heaven's name, why?
While I was the one laying it, I don't scoff at my counterparty. If Boris Johnson becomes a busted flush - and he's straying perilously close to that - if he's not replaced before an election, where are all the Leavers going to go?
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
On this we can agree 100%. An Ashes Test in Manchester in September is insane.
Every 21st century Old Trafford Test has been drawn. Weather here is well known. Good to have a North West Test and not have Headingley as our closest but it shouldn't be in September.
Why couldn't Old Trafford have been the first Test in Summer and have eg Lords and The Oval as the autumnal Tests if we need to be playing The Ashes in September?
I presume you mean every 21st century Ashes test has been drawn? Old Trafford has been getting more results recently than it used to:
I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on you
Odds on a tory maj have been shorteningin the last couple of days and are approaching 50%. So it looks to me as if HYUFD is more on the money than you are, actually.
Odds of a Lab maj are at 12/1
I don't have a crystal ball, but my guess (based on following politics for 40+ years) is another hung parliament
Well the odds are the odds. That is still the odds on bet. The interesting thing is that the odds on a tory maj have been shortening and are now nearly 50/50.
Which suggest that all the piss and wind currently on the MSM, PB etc cuts little ice with the general public.
Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.
What if they nearly always vote for you, and have done for decades, and would continue to always vote for you, except on this one issue?
Is this one issue an issue of confidence or not?
Parties should be a broad church but absolutely must come together on issues of confidence.
Even Redwood, Cash and IDS voted through Maastricht when it became a confidence motion. Soames, Hammond etc chose to cross a bridge even Cash wouldn't cross.
How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?
Interesting that Adam Boulton has suggested the mps voting against yesteday can still stand as a conservative candidates if the election is within 3 months of their rejection
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Remainers are trying to prove that isn't true.
It is leavers self destructing making it less likely!
How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?
If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly. Big if though
It is amazing people think Hammond and Clarke have sacrificed their careers for this bill but will let the PM destroy it in the Lords. They would simply change the PM if forced to by further shenanigans. It is obvious. The bill will pass and become law. The interesting question is who will be PM when it happens.
If the Lords talk it out to Saturday as mooted prorogation kicks in Monday and Boris is untouchable till mid October and is not bound by benn. Its whether the Lords can achieve this that's the question. Theres a plan, will it work?
It doesnt matter. Even if you are right and he is untouchable til October what then? He has a month of office but no power, fails to get anything done with the EU who have no incentive to give him an inch, and gets no confidenced with an alternative PM, probably Corbyn who enacts the legislation.
The lesson of the last year is parliament is sovereign, if the executive insists on a policy strongly at odds with the Commons it will keep losing. Each time it loses it loses further power. It needs to accept the will of the Commons.
If the bill fails because Lords but there's no imminent election, what do we reckon about the next steps for the "Rebel (not much of an) Alliance"?
I think most of the expelled would probably now coalesce around almost any alternative govt in a VONC scenario - absolutely zero f*cks given by Rory Stewart or Ken Clarke for giving BJ a bloody nose. The bigger question is whether Lab or the SNP/LDs can agree on who should lead it. Perhaps we need some indicative votes
I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on you
Odds on a tory maj have been shorteningin the last couple of days and are approaching 50%. So it looks to me as if HYUFD is more on the money than you are, actually.
Odds of a Lab maj are at 12/1
I don't have a crystal ball, but my guess (based on following politics for 40+ years) is another hung parliament
Well the odds are the odds. That is still the odds on bet. The interesting thing is that the odds on a tory maj have been shortening and are now nearly 50/50.
Which suggest that all the piss and wind currently on the MSM, PB etc cuts little ice with the general public.
That is the problem with echo chambers.
The last matched odds on Betfair for a Conservative overall majority are 2.76 (7/4 in old money). You're entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts.
From the people ive spoken to Labour denying an election is going to backfire badly.
Theyll be getting feedback from the doorstep as the day progresses no doubt!
It's delaying to avoid a fait accompli.
Equally over an election campaign as Boris implodes and avoids any unmanaged campaign stops I believe Boris's unsuitability for anything will become very clear.
The Lab-Lib line really isn’t “simplicity itself”. They are deeply confused and divided as to when and how to agree to a new election, one that will simultaneously prevent a formal No Deal and disallow Boris from sneaking a crash out by shifting the date.
In a post Scotland part of the UK world, it seems there would be a clear majority for an English nationalist government, whether Bluekip or Brexit Party.
Again the remain alliance should be thinking this through further than todays battles. It is impossible to stop Brexit without SNP support. SNP support has a reasonable chance of resulting in Scotland leaving the union. Whats left would Brexit anyway.
Ergo the remain alliance should be focused on delivering a soft Brexit, not remain.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
Fresh figs go even better with parma ham and focaccia.
The good news for me is that I shall be in my Hungarian country place from the weekend, plucking figs straight from the tree.
If you read the Never Mind, Edward St. Aubyn's first of the Patrick Melrose novels you will never look at figs in the same way again.
Lab refuses to approve a GE until after 31st as only way of making sure govt do not renege on law. Nov 4th, Lab VoNC govt in knowledge deadline is gone and they have until whenever to worry about no deal. Either Labour led gov forms and immediately calls a GE or 14 days go by, no govt forms, GE is called. The Thursday 6 weeks after that 14 days? Boxing day. Good GE day: people already off work (sorry council workers who have to do the count), families are together so intergenerational discussion on which direction the country should go, New Year, New Govt, start 2020 tabula rasa (yeah, right).
Boxing Day is a Bank Holiday - it would be January 9th were we to follow the tradition of Thursday elections.
The Lab-Lib line really isn’t “simplicity itself”. They are deeply confused and divided as to when and how to agree to a new election, one that will simultaneously prevent a formal No Deal and disallow Boris from sneaking a crash out by shifting the date.
Everything is still in flux.
The Lib Lab line of no election until we know you can't trick us out of the EU on October 31st is clear cut.
The presentation of it as a problem as it's multiple people saying the same thing in very different ways.
From the people ive spoken to Labour denying an election is going to backfire badly.
Theyll be getting feedback from the doorstep as the day progresses no doubt!
It's delaying to avoid a fait accompli.
Equally over an election campaign as Boris implodes and avoids any unmanaged campaign stops I believe Boris's unsuitability for anything will become very clear.
Like in the two mayoral elections? Not posted as a Boris voter btw, I have genuinely no idea who I'll vote for, the person best placed to unseat the odious Clive Lewis
Interesting that Adam Boulton has suggested the mps voting against yesteday can still stand as a conservative candidates if the election is within 3 months of their rejection
I have no idea how true that is
I read something similar on politico, it was unconfirmed but someone arguing re Hammond, if tory party association has selected you, you can stand for 3 months from the selection even if you dont have the whip. No idea if true or not.
The Senate on the other hand backs winning reelection, and that involves lots of voters who care more about their Irish identity than perfidious Albion. It also involves all the different lobbies below, one of the most powerful being the Pork Lobby, who really want to sell their pork in Europe but can't because the EU has actual standards...
Interesting that Adam Boulton has suggested the mps voting against yesteday can still stand as a conservative candidates if the election is within 3 months of their rejection
It shouldn't have been, that was dumb. They've lost Big_G and many other _Gs of various sizes, they no longer have a majority to pass anything else, and they gained what? They lost a vote by a marginally smaller margin than they would otherwise. The voters think Boris is determined to Brexit which is part of the strategy so it's on-brand but the voters already thought that.
The overall strategy is probably OK but this move was very stupid (or incredibly clever, pending some amazing 4D chess move that we are yet to witness).
Interesting that Adam Boulton has suggested the mps voting against yesteday can still stand as a conservative candidates if the election is within 3 months of their rejection
Incidentally, Nigel Farage was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 18.
In heaven's name, why?
While I was the one laying it, I don't scoff at my counterparty. If Boris Johnson becomes a busted flush - and he's straying perilously close to that - if he's not replaced before an election, where are all the Leavers going to go?
Not all to the BXP and even if they did by some miracle elect Farage he couldn't command the Commons with anything close to a majority.
The Senate on the other hand backs winning reelection, and that involves lots of voters who care more about their Irish identity than perfidious Albion. It also involves all the different lobbies below, one of the most powerful being the Pork Lobby, who really want to sell their pork in Europe but can't because the EU has actual standards...
Yes he has! I sincerely believe it is all happening to plan, they are deliberately self destructing to avoid responsibility for an extension, then plan to win an election and use the majority and time from the extension to start the real negotiations with the EU. It is not a terrible plan once the PM had boxed himself in by committing to comply with the French deadline, but utterly cynical.
A timely reminder that the remain alliance may have won the battle, but whatever the next steps, whichever side evenutally wins the war, the country loses!
Remainers will never win so long as they consistently give out strong pheromones that they think the concept of this country is redundant.
Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.
What if they nearly always vote for you, and have done for decades, and would continue to always vote for you, except on this one issue?
Is this one issue an issue of confidence or not?
Parties should be a broad church but absolutely must come together on issues of confidence.
Even Redwood, Cash and IDS voted through Maastricht when it became a confidence motion. Soames, Hammond etc chose to cross a bridge even Cash wouldn't cross.
It was not a vote of confidence. Tabled by neither the government or the LotO.
Now the Tory government is a minority government, surely MPs' thinking should be steered back towards a VoNC and setting up a temporary anti-No Deal government?
I'd think hed accept, call it for Oct 15 then once parliament is dissolved make it clear to the EU if he gets a majority not to bother offering an extension.
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
It shouldn't have been, that was dumb. They've lost Big_G and many other _Gs of various sizes, they no longer have a majority to pass anything else, and they gained what? They lost a vote by a marginally smaller margin than they would otherwise. The voters think Boris is determined to Brexit which is part of the strategy so it's on-brand but the voters already thought that.
The overall strategy is probably OK but this move was very stupid (or incredibly clever, pending some amazing 4D chess move that we are yet to witness).
You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.
Yes he has! I sincerely it is all happening to plan, they are deliberately self destructing to avoid responsibility for an extension, then plan to win an election and use the majority and time from the extension to start the real negotiations with the EU. It is not a terrible plan once the PM had boxed himself in by committing to comply with the French deadline, but utterly cynical.
OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).
I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped
I s.
Edit. Just seen you are referencing it to his current polling. Which brings us back to the thread header by TSE. If he's falling off Mrs May's polling level, where is he going to gain these seats? The Labour heartland ...? If that's Cummings' strategy he's a moron.
I'm surprised you don't understand how FPTP works. It is not decided on national vote share. Because of the changed configuration of parties and shares since 2017, he is likely to be able to gain a parliamentary majority with less than 40% of the votes.
I'd like to think I do understand how FPTP works
I'd like to press you to follow through the logic of what you have, correctly, written. Where exactly are the tories going to pick up these extra seats on their lower vote share? Be pragmatic for a moment. That's the point of this excellent TSE thread header. Here are the plausible outcomes:
1. The South
Con to LibDems. Possibly in large numbers.
2. Scotland
Con to everyone else. Probably in large numbers
3. The North
So this is Cummings' brainwave? Weaponise liberal leftie policies like gay and trans rights, pitch at the Labour working class Brexit vote. Even if they did abandon Labour (which I doubt) do we really think that the Labour heartlands are going to fall for Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg over the blokey Nigel Farage?
Labour will perform better than current polling I suspect because all the polls have been conducted in the nexus of Brexit. Amazingly, people will be concerned about loads of other things during the General Election campaign. Brexit will burn brightly at first then fade. It's never really been of that much interest to people outside the right-wing of the tory party. Issues like the NHS, schools, transport, jobs, inflation, climate etc. etc. will be coming to the fore. I cannot see the Johnson Conservatives leading the way on them. Rory Stewart would. But not Johnson.
Labour heartlands won't turn from Labour.
So I reckon the FPTP will work the opposite way from how you think. Because of the geographical nuances, the Conservatives will outperform in vote share their actual share of the seats.
It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.
Not good news for Corbyn if this goes through, as unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
hmmmm
I think Jezza will make it a bread and butter issue election as its more in tune with the voters. The Tories had better have something similar lined up as Brexit alone wont cut it. See Theresa May.
It shouldn't have been, that was dumb. They've lost Big_G and many other _Gs of various sizes, they no longer have a majority to pass anything else, and they gained what? They lost a vote by a marginally smaller margin than they would otherwise. The voters think Boris is determined to Brexit which is part of the strategy so it's on-brand but the voters already thought that.
The overall strategy is probably OK but this move was very stupid (or incredibly clever, pending some amazing 4D chess move that we are yet to witness).
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
On this we can agree 100%. An Ashes Test in Manchester in September is insane.
Every 21st century Old Trafford Test has been drawn. Weather here is well known. Good to have a North West Test and not have Headingley as our closest but it shouldn't be in September.
Why couldn't Old Trafford have been the first Test in Summer and have eg Lords and The Oval as the autumnal Tests if we need to be playing The Ashes in September?
I presume you mean every 21st century Ashes test has been drawn? Old Trafford has been getting more results recently than it used to:
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
They must know that.
If the party can discard 21 of its own mps, many long standing servants of the party, it can most certainly filibuster the HOL
Parties have positions and not all their MPs believe in them, that's normal. The Tories still have *lots* of MPs who don't believe in No Deal but didn't vote with the opposition on that particular motion.
Comments
#DailyDeadCat
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
https://twitter.com/bbcrb/status/1169151371263787008
The lesson of the last year is parliament is sovereign, if the executive insists on a policy strongly at odds with the Commons it will keep losing. Each time it loses it loses further power. It needs to accept the will of the Commons.
Edit to add although it's likely that Labour has the exact same problem.
Cummings is a genius
Benn passes, corbyn keeps Boris in place to make him accept the extension. At the very last moment before the bill states he has to accept the entire government resign and recommend HMQ send for Corbyn. Corbyn is made PM but being a dithering twat doesn't know how to accept the extension offered and is in breach of UK law as set out in the Benn (up yours Boris) act 2019
Just.for.fun
https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-09-02/great-brexit-insurance-migration-shifts-75-billion-from-london
Odds of a Lab maj are at 12/1
Every 21st century Old Trafford Test has been drawn. Weather here is well known. Good to have a North West Test and not have Headingley as our closest but it shouldn't be in September.
Why couldn't Old Trafford have been the first Test in Summer and have eg Lords and The Oval as the autumnal Tests if we need to be playing The Ashes in September?
In Quebec in 1995 the pro independence side had a narrow lead in final polls excluding Don't Knows in their second independence referendum but No won as Don't Knows went No and No won 51% to 49%.
Quebec has never had another independence referendum again and is now firmly in Canada with devomax
Lab refuses to approve a GE until after 31st as only way of making sure govt do not renege on law. Nov 4th, Lab VoNC govt in knowledge deadline is gone and they have until whenever to worry about no deal. Either Labour led gov forms and immediately calls a GE or 14 days go by, no govt forms, GE is called. The Thursday 6 weeks after that 14 days? Boxing day. Good GE day: people already off work (sorry council workers who have to do the count), families are together so intergenerational discussion on which direction the country should go, New Year, New Govt, start 2020 tabula rasa (yeah, right).
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1169155085659758594
https://twitter.com/worgztheowl/status/1169157013454163968
The Tories would only have come third had the Brexit Party overtaken them
But, without sounding too misanthropic, I basically dislike all sides these days.
http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Grounds/GroundMatches.asp?GroundCode=047
Prediction from Scotland.
Which suggest that all the piss and wind currently on the MSM, PB etc cuts little ice with the general public.
That is the problem with echo chambers.
Parties should be a broad church but absolutely must come together on issues of confidence.
Even Redwood, Cash and IDS voted through Maastricht when it became a confidence motion. Soames, Hammond etc chose to cross a bridge even Cash wouldn't cross.
I think we'll see Con 40%+ in the weekend polls.
I have no idea how true that is
I think most of the expelled would probably now coalesce around almost any alternative govt in a VONC scenario - absolutely zero f*cks given by Rory Stewart or Ken Clarke for giving BJ a bloody nose. The bigger question is whether Lab or the SNP/LDs can agree on who should lead it. Perhaps we need some indicative votes
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/meat-factories-reject-claims-country-is-days-away-from-running-out-of-beef-38465258.html
Equally over an election campaign as Boris implodes and avoids any unmanaged campaign stops I believe Boris's unsuitability for anything will become very clear.
Everything is still in flux.
Again the remain alliance should be thinking this through further than todays battles. It is impossible to stop Brexit without SNP support. SNP support has a reasonable chance of resulting in Scotland leaving the union. Whats left would Brexit anyway.
Ergo the remain alliance should be focused on delivering a soft Brexit, not remain.
"As the deadline for Brexit approaches we urge Ireland, and the EU as well, to negotiate in good faith with Prime Minister Johnson,"
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/dismay-after-pence-backs-brexiteers-over-ireland-38465286.html
The presentation of it as a problem as it's multiple people saying the same thing in very different ways.
Not posted as a Boris voter btw, I have genuinely no idea who I'll vote for, the person best placed to unseat the odious Clive Lewis
The Senate on the other hand backs winning reelection, and that involves lots of voters who care more about their Irish identity than perfidious Albion. It also involves all the different lobbies below, one of the most powerful being the Pork Lobby, who really want to sell their pork in Europe but can't because the EU has actual standards...
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/us-lobbyists-brexit_uk_5c5b26c6e4b00187b5579f64?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJlYTa9nAZO9Vr6n_IGhj0dr5dbOA1jSUQOqBYljC2Vg-UEpzu-izS8Ul4MRF5NMDwckPesImJc8Fur70IqMR4SD5Nm16Ph6y_VHL3W0JSVUQMxMsQQB4yhKp_-TE7SbYo2qix8WVngaKaFulwznry22QINgxnCHo8q2mC-banPc
I've been quizzed about it twice this morning.
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720
Hasn't he?
The overall strategy is probably OK but this move was very stupid (or incredibly clever, pending some amazing 4D chess move that we are yet to witness).
"illegal blockades of beef processing facilities"
Has Nanci Pelosi opined yet?
He should be 100/1.
Not good news for Corbyn if this goes through, as unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
They must know that.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1168793646071726081
We do have some comedians on PB.
I'd like to press you to follow through the logic of what you have, correctly, written. Where exactly are the tories going to pick up these extra seats on their lower vote share? Be pragmatic for a moment. That's the point of this excellent TSE thread header. Here are the plausible outcomes:
1. The South
Con to LibDems. Possibly in large numbers.
2. Scotland
Con to everyone else. Probably in large numbers
3. The North
So this is Cummings' brainwave? Weaponise liberal leftie policies like gay and trans rights, pitch at the Labour working class Brexit vote.
Even if they did abandon Labour (which I doubt) do we really think that the Labour heartlands are going to fall for Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg over the blokey Nigel Farage?
Labour will perform better than current polling I suspect because all the polls have been conducted in the nexus of Brexit. Amazingly, people will be concerned about loads of other things during the General Election campaign. Brexit will burn brightly at first then fade. It's never really been of that much interest to people outside the right-wing of the tory party. Issues like the NHS, schools, transport, jobs, inflation, climate etc. etc. will be coming to the fore. I cannot see the Johnson Conservatives leading the way on them. Rory Stewart would. But not Johnson.
Labour heartlands won't turn from Labour.
So I reckon the FPTP will work the opposite way from how you think. Because of the geographical nuances, the Conservatives will outperform in vote share their actual share of the seats.
I think Jezza will make it a bread and butter issue election as its more in tune with the voters. The Tories had better have something similar lined up as Brexit alone wont cut it. See Theresa May.
Keep your head down and good luck in the forthcoming GE. The House needs you and your sort. Hope the Party still has room for you.
The party has lost all sense of perspective