Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
This is war, absolutely.
Every second of every minute of every hour of every day must be focused on fighting the diehard Remainers until Brexit is delivered, no matter what the cost
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party
I see you found anger at the bottom of another glass. Again.
Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. Metaphorically
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against Brexit
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it
Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.
It was the over 50s - working class, middle class and upper class that won the referendum for Leave.
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party
I see you found anger at the bottom of another glass. Again.
This gets quite boring. Even for me. And I like being talked about.
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
Farage said the price of a pact would be Boris 100% committing to No Deal, not even trying for a deal.
Now that no one believes his pretence of trying for a deal, the best thing he can do electorally is embrace No Deal as a policy and try to get Farage to stand down.
All these UK threads just repeat remain /leave positions.. Nothing has changed, nothing will change, even if we leave... the same arguments will perpetuate indefinitely..
We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
Possibly.
Although keep in mind the numbers voting against Boris actually quite small and consist mostly of the old guard.
The direction of the Tory Party has been clear since Thatchers Bruges speech so in a lot of ways this is a final roll of the dice of the EU-Loving Old Guard.
Once they're out the Party tonight the Tories will almost certainly coalesce around whatever it is they become under Boris (or whoever follows him)
Tonight is the final act of a drama that began with the knifing of Mrs Thacther.
Well one thing the Corn Laws did was purge the Tory party of those who were really liberals not conservatives, if Brexit does the same thing so be it.
The Peelites in the Tories ended up with the Whigs in the Liberals and if more diehard Remainers like Lee today join the LDs fair enough
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
Farage said the price of a pact would be Boris 100% committing to No Deal, not even trying for a deal.
And the price of not agreeing a pact and going to the country on the fiction that a deal is in the offing would be to give Farage a massive stick with which he would beat the Tories throughout the campaign. So Farage wins either way.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
Farage said the price of a pact would be Boris 100% committing to No Deal, not even trying for a deal.
Now that no one believes his pretence of trying for a deal, the best thing he can do electorally is embrace No Deal as a policy and try to get Farage to stand down.
He probably will. He will frame it as parliament destroying any chance of a deal before Oct 31 and that being the day we must leave. So, regrettably he will say, no deal it is
We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
is that a bad thing ?
It's too good to be true. I hope it happens. And then the Labour Party. And then we get PR and every election will consist of 7-8 parties offering nuanced retail politics. And we have an end to the internal party squabbles and idiotic psychodramas that have been a growing feature of our politics for decades.
You clearly haven't been observing politics across the rest of Europe.
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party
I see you found anger at the bottom of another glass. Again.
This gets quite boring. Even for me. And I like being talked about.
Your relentless and unwarranted anger is the problem here. Calm down and act like an adult.
All these UK threads just repeat remain /leave positions.. Nothing has changed, nothing will change, even if we leave... the same arguments will perpetuate indefinitely..
Nope, it moves him onto extension again which voters opposed 47% to 41% with the latest Survation and gifts Labour Leave seats to the Tories
So you think people in Labour seats share your obsession with Brexit to the extent that they would vote for a Tory just because of that issue? I think you are in for a bit of a rude awakening.
We are watching the Corn Laws Redux. History is being written tonight as the Tory party splits before our eyes.
is that a bad thing ?
It's too good to be true. I hope it happens. And then the Labour Party. And then we get PR and every election will consist of 7-8 parties offering nuanced retail politics. And we have an end to the internal party squabbles and idiotic psychodramas that have been a growing feature of our politics for decades.
One can but hope. Actually, the best chance of that is a win for the Remain alliance in a general election *AND* a strong showing for the Lib Dems. Swinson should stick electoral reform in the manifesto and then demand it as the price for supporting some fraction of Corbyn's Far Left agenda. The nationalisations (done at market price not thieved at an arbitrary discount,) perhaps?
Besides, if Remainers get their victory and wish to consolidate it, then PR is definitely the way forward. Any attempt to bring back Brexit in future by referendum would need 50% of the vote, but a right-wing party with the proposition in its manifesto could win an outright majority under FPTP with a third of the vote in a future GE, if those votes were all stacked up in the right places (see also: Labour, 2005.)
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
I think it tells you more about how useless Farage is at FPTP elections.
The Conservatives know how to fight a FPTP election and would have the data and organisation etc that Farage lacks.
If you want £10 on the result, I think it might be fun.
There are lots of combos at work. Will he get shunted off to the Lords as ex-Speakers are want to be? If not, who will stand against him? When will the election be?
Bercow wins Buckingham at the next General Election, I win. Anybody else, you win.
Too many combos at work.
Will he retire? If so, he's gone. 5% maybe?
Will they stand against him? 50% maybe? Depends upon what triggers the election and how vitriolic it is.
If they stand will they win? I'd make this 50/50 - Bercow has the name, Tories have the organisation.
Overall then I'd say roughly 25% chance he's defeated at an election. Which is very high by historical terms.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
Presumably Remainers will blame it on Brexit while Leavers will point out we are still in the EU!
Yes to both. And clearly the economy relies on planning and business certainty. Brexit may not have happened yet but it has reduced certainty and therefore damaged the economy. To what extent is clearly arguable and to an extent unknowable but the direction is clear.
As well as going on no deal, election Boris will produce figures showing how much money a further delay will cost us and business. Project fear in full swing against remain
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
You can ask a court to rule on practically anything if you have the money. Whether the court will agree with you is another thing entirely.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
Presumably Remainers will blame it on Brexit while Leavers will point out we are still in the EU!
Yes to both. And clearly the economy relies on planning and business certainty. Brexit may not have happened yet but it has reduced certainty and therefore damaged the economy. To what extent is clearly arguable and to an extent unknowable but the direction is clear.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
Presumably Remainers will blame it on Brexit while Leavers will point out we are still in the EU!
Yes to both. And clearly the economy relies on planning and business certainty. Brexit may not have happened yet but it has reduced certainty and therefore damaged the economy. To what extent is clearly arguable and to an extent unknowable but the direction is clear.
so why the extension ?
Indeed. Remainers should just be honest and vote to revoke not drag out purgatory forever.
The Next Scottish Conservative Leader market has been up for a few days now, but still zero activity. I’d have thought some insider would have snapped up a tasty price:
Carlaw 3/1 Fraser 3/1 Tomkins 5/1 Cameron 10/1 Golden 12/1 Hamilton 12/1 Briggs 16/1 Jack (Scottish Sec) 16/1 Wells 16/1 Clark 25/1 Kerr 25/1 Lamont 25/1 Thomson 33/1
(Ladbrokes)
Some rum coves on that list. You must know you are well and truly f****d as a sub regional party if Carcrash is favourite to be leader. A dearth of talent on display there.
Yepp. Pretty dire. But as dire as Leonard?
@Noo , you asked about method of selection/election. There has only ever been one before, in 2011. Prior to this it was simply a London appointment.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
Presumably Remainers will blame it on Brexit while Leavers will point out we are still in the EU!
Yes to both. And clearly the economy relies on planning and business certainty. Brexit may not have happened yet but it has reduced certainty and therefore damaged the economy. To what extent is clearly arguable and to an extent unknowable but the direction is clear.
so why the extension ?
I am not in charge! I prefer anything to no deal. Rory Stewarts plan of ruling out revoke, referendum and no deal, then having a citizens assembly work out how to leave within those parameters is the best solution imo.
Stewart plan > Deal > Referendum > Extension > Revoke >>>> No deal is roughly my view.
I assume this makes me a diehard remainer despite revoke being my 2nd last preference.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
A first? First time I’ve seen a Leaver admit that Brexit is dead.
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
How does Johnson convince BXP voters that he won't opt for a May-lite deal once they have lent him their votes and the election is out of the way? This is where his reputation for lying is catching up with him.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think you're confusing royal consent for legislation that affects the royal prerogative with royal assent for legislation in general. They are two different things.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
Challenging Parliament's own management of its procedures is as near to a hopeless case as you'll ever get. Laughed out of court.
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
I think it tells you more about how useless Farage is at FPTP elections.
The Conservatives know how to fight a FPTP election and would have the data and organisation etc that Farage lacks.
If you want £10 on the result, I think it might be fun.
There are lots of combos at work. Will he get shunted off to the Lords as ex-Speakers are want to be? If not, who will stand against him? When will the election be?
Bercow wins Buckingham at the next General Election, I win. Anybody else, you win.
Too many combos at work.
Will he retire? If so, he's gone. 5% maybe?
Will they stand against him? 50% maybe? Depends upon what triggers the election and how vitriolic it is.
If they stand will they win? I'd make this 50/50 - Bercow has the name, Tories have the organisation.
Overall then I'd say roughly 25% chance he's defeated at an election. Which is very high by historical terms.
If those are your numbers, then I'm not sure you want to be playing the next Speaker market, as in most of your cases, he's still Speaker after the election!
Nope, it moves him onto extension again which voters opposed 47% to 41% with the latest Survation and gifts Labour Leave seats to the Tories
So you think people in Labour seats share your obsession with Brexit to the extent that they would vote for a Tory just because of that issue? I think you are in for a bit of a rude awakening.
The Tories with a 10% lead over Labour tonight with Labour polling worse than under Foot suggests otherwise.
Indeed just today a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leave voting lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017 would vote Tory for the first time in his life at the next general election out of fury MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
Or Boris Johnson wins, we exit with No Deal, and he (and Brexit) get the blame.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I doubt it. The result of his ruling - ie the legislation - might be, but I think it is analogous to the exercise of the prerogative (except slightly the other way round); the queen’s exercise of it may not be challenged, but the advice to do so (and its results) can.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think you're confusing royal consent for legislation that affects the royal prerogative with royal assent for legislation in general. They are two different things.
Nope, it moves him onto extension again which voters opposed 47% to 41% with the latest Survation and gifts Labour Leave seats to the Tories
So you think people in Labour seats share your obsession with Brexit to the extent that they would vote for a Tory just because of that issue? I think you are in for a bit of a rude awakening.
The Tories with a 10% lead over Labour tonight with Labour polling worse than under Foot suggests otherwise.
Indeed just today a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leave voting lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017 would vote Tory for the first time in his life at the next general election out of fury MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Oh well if your work colleague’s father is voting for Boris then that settles it then.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
A first? First time I’ve seen a Leaver admit that Brexit is dead.
There have been plenty of us warning this would happen for months. I go further and say if Brexit is dead then so is democracy in this country. You will reap what you sowed.
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?
Yes, because the LibDems, Labour and Green won't stand, and the Brexit Party would.
Also, when it was Bercow vs John Stevens vs Nigel Farage, then John Stevens comfortably beat Farage, which tells you quite a lot about the seat.
I think it tells you more about how useless Farage is at FPTP elections.
The Conservatives know how to fight a FPTP election and would have the data and organisation etc that Farage lacks.
If you want £10 on the result, I think it might be fun.
There are lots of combos at work. Will he get shunted off to the Lords as ex-Speakers are want to be? If not, who will stand against him? When will the election be?
Bercow wins Buckingham at the next General Election, I win. Anybody else, you win.
Too many combos at work.
Will he retire? If so, he's gone. 5% maybe?
Will they stand against him? 50% maybe? Depends upon what triggers the election and how vitriolic it is.
If they stand will they win? I'd make this 50/50 - Bercow has the name, Tories have the organisation.
Overall then I'd say roughly 25% chance he's defeated at an election. Which is very high by historical terms.
If those are your numbers, then I'm not sure you want to be playing the next Speaker market, as in most of your cases, he's still Speaker after the election!
Him still being Speaker doesn't void the market though! Your bets still ride until its settled, it just means it may take a big longer to be settled.
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
How does Cummings convince BXP voters that he won't opt for a May-lite deal once they have lent him their votes and the election is out of the way? This is where his reputation for lying is catching up with him.
Purging 20 MPs who have voted tp take no deal of the table might go quite a way to proving their credentials?
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party
I see you found anger at the bottom of another glass. Again.
This gets quite boring. Even for me. And I like being talked about.
Your relentless and unwarranted anger is the problem here. Calm down and act like an adult.
By all means continue to compare me to the immortal genius, SeanT, once of this parish.
It is very flattering. He was by far the wittiest and best informed commenter on PB, far funnier and better hung than, say, you. I am not fit to fill his extremely large boots.
I just think these endless references to MY putative alcoholism are a little dull for everyone else. But if it pleases you guys to repeat yourselves endlessly, go ahead. Knock your tiny brains out.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
A first? First time I’ve seen a Leaver admit that Brexit is dead.
There have been plenty of us warning this would happen for months. I go further and say if Brexit is dead then so is democracy in this country. You will reap what you sowed.
Certainly, the fury of Leavers will be unbound and if Boris cannot deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal the odds on a Farage led Brexit Party achieving an SNP 2015 style surge, especially in Labour Leave seats would be very high
No Deal Brexit is crazy but it's still better than putting Corbyn in charge of Britain for even 5 minutes.
No Deal Brexit is major collateral damage in ideogically pursuing a single policy. Corbyn is a political, economic, security and social nuclear suicide weapon who'd actively seek to tear down as much as he could, rather than mitigate it.
Or is he trying to wind up, flush out then expel his opponents within the party?
Indeed. From proroguing to promising to deselect, the actions of BoJo and co in the last week has suggested a bold intention to take on internal opponents, toss them out, and trust that it will work out in their favour. Whether people think that a sound idea or not, I don't see much in evidence that they care to minimise rebellion, in fact one of the first reactions to prorogation talk was that it almost seemed like Boris was afraid his own MPs were too gutless to rebel and would need to be forced.
He's pursuing the wrong argument by going so hard against convention and the constitution given the games the Government has played the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.
Exactly what other option is there? If they allow no deal to be ruled out and an extension to be forced upon them, as May did earlier thois year, then within a month we will be back to BXP in the mid-20s and the right facing an existential wipeout in Parliament.
There is literally no other strategy left. Which is why I'm surprised whenever someone on here is surprised at what Boris is doing. It's Zugzwang - nothing more, nothing less.
He could have genuinely tried for a deal for a start. As it is he's played games for the entirety of his brief time in office, banking on his initial polling not being a honeymoon period and telling everyone how much smarter he and Cummings are.
Fair enough, he might yet win the game, but he's been pissing about since taking office, and is just going for huge gambles.
Arrant nonsense. The EU will only start edging towards a new deal - if it ever does - when it sees that all other routes have been closed off. In that light, what was Boris meant to do which he has not done?
He’s in a shit place thanks to TMay’s crass incompetence. I hope she gets kicked out of her party
I see you found anger at the bottom of another glass. Again.
This gets quite boring. Even for me. And I like being talked about.
Your relentless and unwarranted anger is the problem here. Calm down and act like an adult.
By all means continue to compare me to the immortal genius, SeanT, once of this parish.
It is very flattering. He was by far the wittiest and best informed commenter on PB, far funnier and better hung than, say, you. I am not fit to fill his extremely large boots.
I just think these endless references to MY putative alcoholism are a little dull for everyone else. But if it pleases you guys to repeat yourselves endlessly, go ahead. Knock your tiny brains out.
Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms . Johnson could stew in his own juice.
Fans of chess on this forum might consider the analogy of a fork.
Perhaps Cummings is not as good at game theory as he thinks.
has much changed ?
everyone is focussing on the here and now but realistically this Parliament is fked and all parties know we need new elections. If its October or January doesnt make much difference unless the MPs can cobble together an exit deal and so far there is little sign of that.
Once No Deal is gone (tomorrow?) how does Corbyn continue to defend refusing an election? If he does fight it off, the Gvt gets to monopolise the airwaves during Purdah and look to force an election of the back of the extension itself.
Edit - prorogation not Purdah obviously. Too many Ps.
He's not going to continue refusing if he rules out no deal is he? It'll be job done, the knees cut out from Boris in the eyes of BXP, so an election can be had.
That doesn't stop the possibility of a Con/BXP pact if Boris commits to repealling the act and putting no deal back on the table.
How does Cummings convince BXP voters that he won't opt for a May-lite deal once they have lent him their votes and the election is out of the way? This is where his reputation for lying is catching up with him.
Purging 20 MPs who have voted tp take no deal of the table might go quite a way to proving their credentials?
No Deal Brexit is crazy but it's still better than putting Corbyn in charge of Britain for even 5 minutes.
I see no difference. Happily, it is a good time to live in a safe seat as my vote one way or the other won't contribute meaningfully to either outcome.
All these UK threads just repeat remain /leave positions.. Nothing has changed, nothing will change, even if we leave... the same arguments will perpetuate indefinitely..
I submitted a header to Mr Eagles, but he declined to use it. It was short, succint and all comments would have remained on topic. It was
"Brexit. Discuss"
You are plainly not familiar with TSE's little foibles. Now if you made it something like - 'Would AV help resolve Brexit?' - we would be discussing it right now.
No Deal Brexit is crazy but it's still better than putting Corbyn in charge of Britain for even 5 minutes.
No Deal Brexit is major collateral damage in ideogically pursuing a single policy. Corbyn is a political, economic, security and social nuclear suicide weapon who'd actively seek to tear down as much as he could, rather than mitigate it.
I think we’ll hit the jackpot, No Deal followed by Corbyn.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think you're confusing royal consent for legislation that affects the royal prerogative with royal assent for legislation in general. They are two different things.
This bill arguably affects royal prerogative.
Under no circumstances whatsoever should the instructions of HMQ be up for debate. Not the slightest chink.
I'm not a monarchist, but when you have a monarchy you have to stick with it. We do also have a really good monarch, which helps. Mostly she's done nothing very well, but what she has done has been good, and what she hasn't done has been great.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think you're confusing royal consent for legislation that affects the royal prerogative with royal assent for legislation in general. They are two different things.
This bill arguably affects royal prerogative.
Well, in any case royal consent and royal assent are two different things, and as far as I know the speaker isn't involved in either.
Nope, it moves him onto extension again which voters opposed 47% to 41% with the latest Survation and gifts Labour Leave seats to the Tories
So you think people in Labour seats share your obsession with Brexit to the extent that they would vote for a Tory just because of that issue? I think you are in for a bit of a rude awakening.
The Tories with a 10% lead over Labour tonight with Labour polling worse than under Foot suggests otherwise.
Indeed just today a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leave voting lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017 would vote Tory for the first time in his life at the next general election out of fury MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Polls like that don’t predict what individual Labour voters will do. And are you seriously trying to persuade me of your position based on what your colleague told you his dad said? Seriously?
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
A first? First time I’ve seen a Leaver admit that Brexit is dead.
There have been plenty of us warning this would happen for months. I go further and say if Brexit is dead then so is democracy in this country. You will reap what you sowed.
If you want to have an election, I'd have it now. Because those PMIs tend to lead changes in unemployment rates by six months.
The Renainers really are dumb. They are going to kill Brexit just in time for a major recession which every Leave supporting politician will take great pleasure in pinning on them. So with economic hardship and a betrayal narrative we are going to see a huge increase in support for the real extremist parties and a backlash against the politicians like you can't imagine.
A first? First time I’ve seen a Leaver admit that Brexit is dead.
It might be. Depends on how events play out, evidently.
On the general subject of Leaverdom, people make the mistake of assuming we're all fanatics. The actual situation is somewhat more nuanced.
As a matter of moral conviction, I'm on the side of Brexit for sovereignty reasons. And I feel, from the standpoint of having decisions made in this country and not pooling upwards to the EU level, that Leave was the right choice.
HOWEVER - there's part of me that wishes fervently that the whole sordid business would just go away, and that part of me isn't too arsed whether we stay or go so long as the rotten politicians get on with it and make a decision. That's primarily the result of wanting the uncertainty and fudge done with, and partly sheer boredom.
Anyway, on to more important things. Bake Off starts in a minute.
Certainly, the fury of Leavers will be unbound and if Boris cannot deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal the odds on a Farage led Brexit Party achieving an SNP 2015 style surge, especially in Labour Leave seats would be very high
Brexit won't die if your man fails to deliver it on 31/10. You seem to assume everyone who is opposed to a No Deal Brexit is opposed to Brexit but that simply isn't the case.
There are plenty who reject No Deal and want to leave with something approaching a reasonable WA which May's clearly wasn't.
The diehard Leave fanatics will froth on Facebook and will flock to BP which will take over the Leave mantle from the failed Conservatives but ther eis an opportunity to strike a sensible deal which works for the country once the Tories are out of the way.
No Deal Brexit is crazy but it's still better than putting Corbyn in charge of Britain for even 5 minutes.
No Deal Brexit is major collateral damage in ideogically pursuing a single policy. Corbyn is a political, economic, security and social nuclear suicide weapon who'd actively seek to tear down as much as he could, rather than mitigate it.
I think we’ll hit the jackpot, No Deal followed by Corbyn.
We will see. It's still not an argument for pushing the button to use Skynet to stop Skynet just before it turns on mankind.
Quick question, if the Govts decision to prorogue can be taken to court, Can The Speakers decision also be taken to court?
Which one? Yes in theory to most things though
Which one indeed ? Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
If he ruled benn cannot be refused consent as it does not infringe royal prerogative that could be challenged in court
I think you're confusing royal consent for legislation that affects the royal prerogative with royal assent for legislation in general. They are two different things.
This bill arguably affects royal prerogative.
Well, in any case royal consent and royal assent are two different things, and as far as I know the speaker isn't involved in either.
Speaker determines if a bill requires royal consent. If it does the PM advises HMQ whether to grant consent or not.
If this bill requires consent and Bercow says so then Boris can veto it via withholding consent. If it should require consent but Bercow claims it doesn't, it is hard to see how that can be remedied.
Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. Metaphorically
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against Brexit
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!
A post which puts some stress on my policy of not calling people stupid on the internet.
Can you not think of any pro-Remain individual of recent years who exactly fits all of that description (except the bit about jrm, which is false)? If you can't, try to imagine the existence of someone like that. What would his existence do to your argument, do you think?
Dave
And he was close enough to JRM’s sister to affectionately call her ‘Nancy’
Comments
It is wholly irrelevant. Things have already moved on.
Asking for a forum.....
I submitted a header to Mr Eagles, but he declined to use it. It was short, succint and all comments would have remained on topic. It was
"Brexit. Discuss"
The Peelites in the Tories ended up with the Whigs in the Liberals and if more diehard Remainers like Lee today join the LDs fair enough
Farage will find a reason to stand anyway though, got to keep himself relevant.
Most probably cannot - if he is supported by a majority in the House, which determines its own procedures, it’s hard to see how that might be justiciable outside of the House.
Besides, if Remainers get their victory and wish to consolidate it, then PR is definitely the way forward. Any attempt to bring back Brexit in future by referendum would need 50% of the vote, but a right-wing party with the proposition in its manifesto could win an outright majority under FPTP with a third of the vote in a future GE, if those votes were all stacked up in the right places (see also: Labour, 2005.)
Will he retire? If so, he's gone. 5% maybe?
Will they stand against him? 50% maybe? Depends upon what triggers the election and how vitriolic it is.
If they stand will they win? I'd make this 50/50 - Bercow has the name, Tories have the organisation.
Overall then I'd say roughly 25% chance he's defeated at an election. Which is very high by historical terms.
@Noo , you asked about method of selection/election. There has only ever been one before, in 2011. Prior to this it was simply a London appointment.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Scottish_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
Stewart plan > Deal > Referendum > Extension > Revoke >>>> No deal is roughly my view.
I assume this makes me a diehard remainer despite revoke being my 2nd last preference.
Daniel Finkelstein
Leaving the EU without an agreement will damage the country but it’s still just about preferable to the alternative" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/at-the-end-of-the-day-its-no-deal-or-corbyn-k6wg69tzt
Indeed just today a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leave voting lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017 would vote Tory for the first time in his life at the next general election out of fury MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Who the hell knows?
The result of his ruling - ie the legislation - might be, but I think it is analogous to the exercise of the prerogative (except slightly the other way round); the queen’s exercise of it may not be challenged, but the advice to do so (and its results) can.
https://twitter.com/peston/status/1168959149675307008?s=21
It is very flattering. He was by far the wittiest and best informed commenter on PB, far funnier and better hung than, say, you. I am not fit to fill his extremely large boots.
I just think these endless references to MY putative alcoholism are a little dull for everyone else. But if it pleases you guys to repeat yourselves endlessly, go ahead. Knock your tiny brains out.
That said, it is Robert Peston, so what odds that the government squeaks home now!
Or is he trying to wind up, flush out then expel his opponents within the party?
Hi again. How you doing?
Everything now is what about what happens after 10pm tonight.
No Deal Brexit is crazy but it's still better than putting Corbyn in charge of Britain for even 5 minutes.
No Deal Brexit is major collateral damage in ideogically pursuing a single policy. Corbyn is a political, economic, security and social nuclear suicide weapon who'd actively seek to tear down as much as he could, rather than mitigate it.
JRM is a deeply unpleasant man.
I'm not a monarchist, but when you have a monarchy you have to stick with it. We do also have a really good monarch, which helps. Mostly she's done nothing very well, but what she has done has been good, and what she hasn't done has been great.
I know he's SNP but every time he stands up it's Scotland this.. Scotland that.. Pushing SNP propaganda and attack lines.
Always divides the House rather than seeking to influence it to his greater advantage.
On the general subject of Leaverdom, people make the mistake of assuming we're all fanatics. The actual situation is somewhat more nuanced.
As a matter of moral conviction, I'm on the side of Brexit for sovereignty reasons. And I feel, from the standpoint of having decisions made in this country and not pooling upwards to the EU level, that Leave was the right choice.
HOWEVER - there's part of me that wishes fervently that the whole sordid business would just go away, and that part of me isn't too arsed whether we stay or go so long as the rotten politicians get on with it and make a decision. That's primarily the result of wanting the uncertainty and fudge done with, and partly sheer boredom.
Anyway, on to more important things. Bake Off starts in a minute.
There are plenty who reject No Deal and want to leave with something approaching a reasonable WA which May's clearly wasn't.
The diehard Leave fanatics will froth on Facebook and will flock to BP which will take over the Leave mantle from the failed Conservatives but ther eis an opportunity to strike a sensible deal which works for the country once the Tories are out of the way.
https://twitter.com/MariosRichards/status/1168931527226482688
https://twitter.com/MariosRichards/status/1168932148109295616
If this bill requires consent and Bercow says so then Boris can veto it via withholding consent. If it should require consent but Bercow claims it doesn't, it is hard to see how that can be remedied.
And he was close enough to JRM’s sister to affectionately call her ‘Nancy’
😂