politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker
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Most likely, but if Con are about to lose a serious chunk of their MPs, and all those people look set to lose their jobs if there's an election, Corbyn might be able to form a government.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.0 -
I think the green vote is the softest, followed by the brexit party vote. LD is a genuine repository for a pro EU position and CON for Brexit.
Labour still have their USP of being best placed to stop the Tories in many constituencies I suppose.0 -
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.0 -
There is going to be an election very soon. The Tory Party (and the Labour Party) are going to have a manifesto commitment on what to do about Brexit.Nigel_Foremain said:
Meanwhile Boris's genius idea of threatening to deselect MPs may cause additional defections. POBWASGabs2 said:
It is clear there is a majority for Corbyn's extension bill to pass. That will extend Brexit for another three months and there will be a majority against an election until that deadline comes up. Then the same thing will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.Gabs2 said:
Sounds like there is a majority against an election.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
If existing Tory MPs can't sign up to the Tory Manifesto, then of course they should not be standing for the Tory Party.
People like Dominic Grieve lied last time. He signed up for a manifesto he did not believe in. He should not be allowed to do it again.
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Will the public put up with yet another extension to Brexit?Gabs2 said:
It is clear there is a majority for Corbyn's extension bill to pass. That will extend Brexit for another three months and there will be a majority against an election until that deadline comes up. Then the same thing will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.Gabs2 said:
Sounds like there is a majority against an election.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ0 -
I am completely convinced you are not SeanT.Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.0 -
Yes let us get back to the anti No Deal May leadership which got a Tory voteshare of 9% in the European Parliament elections while the Brexit Party got 32%Barnesian said:
It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs May voted with Ken Clarke tonight and loses the Tory whip. This would emphasise that the Tory Party has been temporarily taken over by BXP infiltraitors but the genuine Tory Party is still alive and kicking and is getting organised.Luckyguy1983 said:
No, of course not, I think someone just said something funny. May and Clarke didn't just sit there giggling all the way through it because of some uncontrollable schadenfreude inspired tic. They're not Dreyfuss out of Pink Panther.Nigel_Foremain said:
Is it my imagination or does TMay have a "fuck you Boris" expression on her face?williamglenn said:0 -
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Italian new government...
M5S's members approve the new coalition in the online consulation
SI - 63,146 votes (79.3%)
NO - 16,488 votes (20.7%)
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The real homeless MPs will be May, Gauke, Hammond, Boles, Masterton those genuinely opposed to leaving without a deal but who do actually want to leave with a deal. Most MPs right now I expect either want to stay or just leave come what mayCasino_Royale said:
There are hurdles in values and principles.Chris said:
What a strange thing to say. Surely it's a good illustration of the fact that there aren't any hurdles!Casino_Royale said:
It's a good example of the hurdles Conservatives have to go through to join the Lib Dems though.Chris said:Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.
He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."
Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.
They are completely different parties. Switching is never easy (except perhaps for Sarah Wollaston).1 -
Boris is looking pretty trapped at the moment. He cannot even temper tantrum his way out of this mess.williamglenn said:0 -
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What does 'putting up with it' mean? I'm sure BXP polling will skyrocket again, at the expense of the Tories, at which point Labour might well change their mind about a snap election.AndyJS said:
Will the public put up with yet another extension to Brexit?Gabs2 said:
It is clear there is a majority for Corbyn's extension bill to pass. That will extend Brexit for another three months and there will be a majority against an election until that deadline comes up. Then the same thing will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.Gabs2 said:
Sounds like there is a majority against an election.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ0 -
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.0 -
Letwin's up.0
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Is anyone surprised the Bill only extends by 3 months to 31 Jan?
Today it is almost still 2 months till the current deadline. OK, there is the prorogation but, even so, Remainers are already very worried about the deadline.
So if we are still in the EU and go past 31 Oct surely everyone will be very keen to then extend the deadline beyond 31 Jan pretty much straight away (bear in mind the Christmas holidays will then be a factor).0 -
I wonder if the Speaker could be persuaded to barricade the doors of the commons, and only let them all out when they've reached a unanimous decision?
That's the sort of Brexit extension I could get behind.0 -
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Fine, Boris will still refuse to extend and just watch the Labour Leave seats continue to drift over to him as Corbyn still prefers extension to delivering BrexitAndyJS said:0 -
Sammy Wilson there saying even if we leave without a deal the EU will come running afterwards to see if we can make a deal.
The post hoc blink obviously the next psychological stage of managing their huge self deception.0 -
Duh, MPs have disagreed with their frontbench since time immemorial. If the crap you are spouting applied universally and retrospectively, most of the current MPs and most of the current cabinet of lightweights and duplicitous wankers would have to resign from their parties. Leavers don't like Grieve because he has a brain and has called out Brexit for what it is - a pile of illogical horseshitYBarddCwsc said:
There is going to be an election very soon. The Tory Party (and the Labour Party) are going to have a manifesto commitment on what to do about Brexit.Nigel_Foremain said:
Meanwhile Boris's genius idea of threatening to deselect MPs may cause additional defections. POBWASGabs2 said:
It is clear there is a majority for Corbyn's extension bill to pass. That will extend Brexit for another three months and there will be a majority against an election until that deadline comes up. Then the same thing will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.Gabs2 said:
Sounds like there is a majority against an election.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
If existing Tory MPs can't sign up to the Tory Manifesto, then of course they should not be standing for the Tory Party.
People like Dominic Grieve lied last time. He signed up for a manifesto he did not believe in. He should not be allowed to do it again.0 -
He's worry that they might make a decision he was not in favour of if he did that.Omnium said:I wonder if the Speaker could be persuaded to barricade the doors of the commons, and only let them all out when they've reached a unanimous decision?
That's the sort of Brexit extension I could get behind.
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Hmm. Paul Keating's famous retort comes to mind here.williamglenn said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RU2RMz5g9ho0 -
Today he said he'd follow the law, but maybe he was lying.HYUFD said:
Fine, Boris will still refuse to extend and just watch the Labour Leave seats continue to drift over to him as Corbyn still prefers extension to delivering Brexit0 -
This is incredible. The school year has started in Hong Kong and students around the city are drowning out the Chinese national anthem with "Do you hear the people sing?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WaMBaW6Q6c0 -
I guess some might actually believe Johnson is actually telling the truth when he promises standing firm will secure a late concession by the PM and a fabulous deal in late October.Pulpstar said:
The real homeless MPs will be May, Gauke, Hammond, Boles, Masterton those genuinely opposed to leaving without a deal but who do actually want to leave with a deal. Most MPs right now I expect either want to stay or just leave come what mayCasino_Royale said:
There are hurdles in values and principles.Chris said:
What a strange thing to say. Surely it's a good illustration of the fact that there aren't any hurdles!Casino_Royale said:
It's a good example of the hurdles Conservatives have to go through to join the Lib Dems though.Chris said:Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.
He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."
Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.
They are completely different parties. Switching is never easy (except perhaps for Sarah Wollaston).
Only kidding! Even MPs aren't that thick and gullible!0 -
It's not one thing or the other. Leavers don't like Grieve for that reason but he has also been dishonest in his intentions, and is a complete fanatic who remainers let get away with fanaticism because the like his goals.Nigel_Foremain said:
Duh, MPs have disagreed with their frontbench since time immemorial. If the crap you are spouting applied universally and retrospectively, most of the current MPs and most of the current cabinet of lightweights and duplicitous wankers would have to resign from their parties. Leavers don't like Grieve because he has a brain and has called out Brexit for what it is - a pile of illogical horseshitYBarddCwsc said:
There is going to be an election very soon. The Tory Party (and the Labour Party) are going to have a manifesto commitment on what to do about Brexit.Nigel_Foremain said:
Meanwhile Boris's genius idea of threatening to deselect MPs may cause additional defections. POBWASGabs2 said:
It is clear there is a majority for Corbyn's extension bill to pass. That will extend Brexit for another three months and there will be a majority against an election until that deadline comes up. Then the same thing will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
There’s a majority against an election that might cause a No Deal before the vote happens. Once that is resolved we’ll be going to the polls.Gabs2 said:
Sounds like there is a majority against an election.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
If existing Tory MPs can't sign up to the Tory Manifesto, then of course they should not be standing for the Tory Party.
People like Dominic Grieve lied last time. He signed up for a manifesto he did not believe in. He should not be allowed to do it again.0 -
There is some justice in that. Johnson wants a deal, I believe. He wants other things more, which are incompatible with a deal: Brexit Party voters switching to him; no extension; no backstop.kle4 said:
Boris is looking pretty trapped at the moment. He cannot even temper tantrum his way out of this mess.williamglenn said:
Why should Labour give him a free pass?0 -
And you believed him? What will be more popular with the Tory members is the only quesiton of note.Gallowgate said:0 -
Boris? Lie? Don’t be so ridiculous.edmundintokyo said:
Today he said he'd follow the law, but maybe he was lying.HYUFD said:
Fine, Boris will still refuse to extend and just watch the Labour Leave seats continue to drift over to him as Corbyn still prefers extension to delivering Brexit0 -
I believe everything he says.kle4 said:
And you believed him? What will be more popular with the Tory members is the only quesiton of note.Gallowgate said:0 -
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If we end up with an election in October, will all future elections happen in October? Assuming, of course, that whichever party forms the government are stable enough to see out their five years.
Weird if autumn elections become the new normal.0 -
HYUFD does, and even believes things he hasn't said, just in case he might say them!Gallowgate said:
I believe everything he says.kle4 said:
And you believed him? What will be more popular with the Tory members is the only quesiton of note.Gallowgate said:2 -
He's made lots of promises, one of which at least he's going to have to break...Gallowgate said:0 -
Isn't there still a cell in the Palace of Westminster where Parliament can send Bozo if he tries to defy them?HYUFD said:
Fine, Boris will still refuse to extend and just watch the Labour Leave seats continue to drift over to him as Corbyn still prefers extension to delivering BrexitAndyJS said:0 -
Mr Kle4, There is no fanaticism, only an opposition to the fanaticism of the ERG et al. He simply understands the law. You know, that thing that Boris thinks he might ignore.
We need more Dominic Grieves in the HoCs, not less. We need a lot less thickos like Francois and Corbyn.1 -
Perhaps not so much of a threat if the next election is a little way off. Cooler heads might have prevailed by then.AndyJS said:0 -
Need to be careful not to martyr BorisSandyRentool said:0 -
There is precedent for singing to be used as a revolutionary act:Gabs2 said:This is incredible. The school year has started in Hong Kong and students around the city are drowning out the Chinese national anthem with "Do you hear the people sing?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WaMBaW6Q6c
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution0 -
On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.0 -
No. I’m in Sparta. This is not SpartaAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Only way to treat a confidence vote.AndyJS said:
Trying to think which MPs of that that might lose the whip I'll be sorry to see go. Oliver Letwin is the only one I can think of.
A while back I'd have said Ken Clarke too but he's overdue retirement.0 -
Seems to be Boris (and Cummings presumably) really have bought into their own legend, and are willing to gamble everything on winning over BXP voters with a scorched earth approach. It'll look ballsy as hell if it pays off, but if it doesn't it'll look remarkably dumb.AndyJS said:0 -
Someone should lock Bozo in the toilets...AndyJS said:0 -
You would think it extremely unlikely, but a snppet on the news today indicated that she was sitting next to Ken Clarke in the House.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well someone texted me 20 mins ago about the potential of it happening.Gallowgate said:
Is there any chance of that happening?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet, we might tonight if Mrs May votes against the government and has the whip removed.kle4 said:So..., have we reached the end of days of this government yet?
I cannot see it happening (but as her Premiership showed she would do anything to avoid No Deal because as a Unionist she thinks it will trigger the end of the Union.)
Very odd.0 -
Revolutionary times require revolutionary acts.SandyRentool said:
Someone should lock Bozo in the toilets...AndyJS said:0 -
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.0 -
It's the one chamber he can commandSandyRentool said:
Someone should lock Bozo in the toilets...AndyJS said:0 -
I see O'Mara never resigned0
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In theory but, as 2017 showed, you can normally get a super majority for an earlier election.Noo said:If we end up with an election in October, will all future elections happen in October? Assuming, of course, that whichever party forms the government are stable enough to see out their five years.
Weird if autumn elections become the new normal.
The present situation is, in a sense, the FTPA doing what it should. Johnson is using an election as a tactic to run down the clock, and Parliament are saying "no". Similarly, if a PM went a fortnight early to avoid a critical independent report (as Major did in 1997) Parliament might say "no". But six months or 18 months early in peacetime? Oppositions would normally roar "bring it on!" even if secretly nervous.0 -
The BBC earlier had a tweet about someone asking her whether she would vote against the govt and she said "Wait and see." I assumed it was a joke.Peter_the_Punter said:
You would think it extremely unlikely, but a snppet on the news today indicated that she was sitting next to Ken Clarke in the House.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well someone texted me 20 mins ago about the potential of it happening.Gallowgate said:
Is there any chance of that happening?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet, we might tonight if Mrs May votes against the government and has the whip removed.kle4 said:So..., have we reached the end of days of this government yet?
I cannot see it happening (but as her Premiership showed she would do anything to avoid No Deal because as a Unionist she thinks it will trigger the end of the Union.)
Very odd.
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Of course, the 1974 Eurovision Song Contest provided a signal to begin the Carnation Revolution:Noo said:
There is precedent for singing to be used as a revolutionary act:Gabs2 said:This is incredible. The school year has started in Hong Kong and students around the city are drowning out the Chinese national anthem with "Do you hear the people sing?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WaMBaW6Q6c
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_1974
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something something busted flush something somethingSandyRentool said:
Someone should lock Bozo in the toilets...AndyJS said:0 -
Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign0
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Sky news saying Nick Brown chief whip at PLP meeting said Labour would not vote for GE.On Johnsons terms .
Johnson could stew in his own juice.0 -
You are being completely blinkered. Grieve is unwilling to accept compromise on what he wants, and will pursue it no matter the consequences. He is therefore the mirror image of the ERG spartans. I think remaining is better than no dealing, but I think it disgraceful that his being a fanatic gets denied on the basis that people like that he is intelligent and wants to remain in the EU. Being intelligent and wanting to remain in the EU do not mean someone cannot be an absolute fanatic. And I never said he should not be in the HoC, or that we should have more like Francois or Corbyn instead. But he does not get a pass for not accepting anything other than his own perfect solutions.Nigel_Foremain said:Mr Kle4, There is no fanaticism, only an opposition to the fanaticism of the ERG et al. He simply understands the law. You know, that thing that Boris thinks he might ignore.
We need more Dominic Grieves in the HoCs, not less. We need a lot less thickos like Francois and Corbyn.0 -
Re future elections in October, the FTPA is highly unlikely to survive the next majority parliament as currently constituted0
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He won't, the sovereign will not give royal assent without the executive's agreement so no law will be brokenGallowgate said:0 -
It was a majority Remain seat. What makes you think the Conservatives would stand an earthly against an apparently popular sitting MP? Note, Nigel Farage came third in a two horse race here behind an independent pro-European candidate.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.0 -
Are you sure? There was a poster on here who was very convincing about how new Italian elections were inevitable this year,AndreaParma_82 said:Italian new government...
M5S's members approve the new coalition in the online consulation
SI - 63,146 votes (79.3%)
NO - 16,488 votes (20.7%)0 -
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Recall petition?TheScreamingEagles said:O’Mara story here.
https://twitter.com/samcoopernews/status/1168938556573868039?s=210 -
Theresa May being kicked out of the Conservative Party a matter of days after she was a Tory prime minister would be one of the most extraordinary developments in British politics since about 1956.2
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Someone sack the scriptwriter. This plot about a Tory PM withdrawing the whip from Ken Clarke and Theresa May is utterly ludicrous.0
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Interesting response, thanks. I think I'm much more forgiving of Bercow than most Brexiteers, as I hope my post made clear - in his role, it was his job to make sure Parliament was heard, and this is what he did. I also agree with you that during contentious times, any speaker would have got dragged into things to some extent - every little action or inaction obsessively dissected for signs of bias.Nigelb said:
Your last point I agree with almost unreservedly (though it might still be that the Brexit mess needs another one to resolve).
As for the first point, I think the Speaker controversy arises largely from the coincidence of an irretrievably hung Parliament, and all consuming national issue which cuts across party lines. I think any Speaker would have been deeply unpopular with at least one of the sides in the argument, and Bercow has at least attempted to allow Parliament to speak, rather than let an executive without a real mandate completely dictate events.
If the major parties are going to remain ideological, then messing with the office of the Speaker is merely distraction. I think in that circumstance, only PR would solve things.
I actually quite like the FTPA. Its interaction with the current Parliament has been unfortunate, but see my comments above re the Speaker. Some rewriting of it, to deal with lacunae which have made themselves obvious, and perhaps a modification of the 2/3rds hurdle, are in order
I do think, though, that in terms of pure politics, Bercow would have done better to emphasise his own neutrality. Instead, he's not been too subtle about where his personal preferences on Brexit lay. Since most MPs broadly agree with him, that might have been his signal that he's "on their side" but it doesn't help in terms of the flak he's getting or the risk of politcisation. In terms of the constitution, there's an argument that contentious times call on greater respect for precedent, and less radical re-writing of the rule-book. If he's pushed things a little too far, he might be setting dangerous precedents himself.
Re FTPA, I can see some benefits to it but it still strikes me as a short-sighted piece of legislation, one very much intended for the purposes of a particular moment in time, rather than for the long-lasting and far-reaching effects that its' had. I'd like to see the return of the right to turn a vote on a piece of legislation into a proper confidence vote, as it would do something about the problem of "zombie governments" (can't legislate but can't get a fresh election).0 -
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it0 -
It is not a joke. He was seriously poor today and is going to sack maybe 25 of his colleagues doing something he and the ERG did themselveskle4 said:
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Nothing more sickeningly Tory than assuming someone has merit because of who their grandfather was.....AlastairMeeks said:0 -
If May has the whip removed it will show how far we've gone back to being a Conservative government and not a Poundshop Labour one. It will show we're not a 9% crew of abject failures and draw a line in the sand from her pathetic government.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet, we might tonight if Mrs May votes against the government and has the whip removed.kle4 said:So..., have we reached the end of days of this government yet?
Hard for BXP to claim the Tories just want to brush off May's deal when May herself has been expelled.
Good riddance to the authoritarian if she goes. Worst PM of our lifetime, an abject failure and the nastiest politician I've ever seen live. Begone.0 -
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.
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They can only happen after a trigger event. Is he likely to be suspended from the Commons or convicted of an expenses offence or given a 12 month custodial sentence? He was recently arresed per the story but that would no doubt take awhile if he is guilty.OldKingCole said:
Recall petition?TheScreamingEagles said:O’Mara story here.
https://twitter.com/samcoopernews/status/1168938556573868039?s=210 -
Can't have it unless there's a conviction, which may happen at some point but probably not in life of this ParliamentOldKingCole said:
Recall petition?TheScreamingEagles said:O’Mara story here.
https://twitter.com/samcoopernews/status/1168938556573868039?s=210 -
Implied probability of No Deal in 2019 down to 29% on Betfair.0
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Not quite where my mind went, but similarly I don't see why the hell it matters.ab195 said:
Nothing more sickeningly Tory than assuming someone has merit because of who their grandfather was.....AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Just the two?Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions.SouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
0 -
0
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His trolling of Prescott with 'gin and tonic please steward' got old pretty quickly the entitled pr*ckab195 said:
Nothing more sickeningly Tory than assuming someone has merit because of who their grandfather was.....AlastairMeeks said:1 -
I’d expect more than 25. We’ve seen the high profile names. The less well-known ones will wait for the vote itself to break cover. If I were picking a number I’d say 35.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not a joke. He was seriously poor today and is going to sack maybe 25 of his colleagues doing something he and the ERG did themselveskle4 said:
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
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Right. And most of the remaining MPs will seemingly sit back and let that happen. And his members will by a majority love him for it. So even though it means he will have no majority, and is struggling to get the election he wants on the terms he wants, why would he resign?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not a joke. He was seriously poor today and is going to sack maybe 25 of his colleagues doing something he and the ERG did themselveskle4 said:
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
0 -
A mere flesh woundBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is not a joke. He was seriously poor today and is going to sack maybe 25 of his colleagues doing something he and the ERG did themselveskle4 said:
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
Boris is Great HYUFD says so0 -
Not unless the FTPA is repealed. Indeed any Parliament elected this Autumn will be dissolved at the end of March 2024 for an election to take place in the first week of May that year.Thus, it will be a 4.5 - rather than a 5 - year Parliament!Noo said:If we end up with an election in October, will all future elections happen in October? Assuming, of course, that whichever party forms the government are stable enough to see out their five years.
Weird if autumn elections become the new normal.0 -
October GE still 1.62 on Betfair.
Very hard to call what happens - looks perfect for Labour to just box Boris in - he has nowhere to go.
But remember a golden rule of PB - if you are having to explain what you are doing then you've already lost the argument. Labour refusing a GE may look very bad indeed - nobody will be listening to the detailed explanation of why.
Yes, Labour certainly can delay until the No Deal Bill has passed (Friday?) but once that happens saying no GE becomes very dangerous.0 -
That could be a match winnings innings too this series!OldKingCole said:
Visiting friends there on Sunday. Might have views thereafter.Philip_Thompson said:
You really think Bercow would win in Buckingham against a Conservative candidate?rcs1000 said:On topic, I wouldn't play this market. Why?
I think Bercow will stand at the coming General Election, and - even if the Conservatives stand against him - will win. This means there is a fair likelihood the bet will not payout for some time.
It requires, effectively, the Conservatives to win enough of a majority that they wish to take on the Speaker. Possible? Yes. But anything other than a decent majority (i.e. 25+) sees him stay in place.
Mind, by Sunday all sorts of things could have happened. Aussies bowled out for 70, for example.0 -
Indeed. The real Sean would never wait untilGabs2 said:
I am completely convinced you are not SeanT.Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
7pm for his first gin.0 -
If Theresa May votes with the rebels she could become a candidate to be PM of a GNU.0
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Working class perhaps, but the majority of workers voted remain. It was the economically inactive, rentiers and those reliant on benefits from the workers who tipped the balance.HYUFD said:
The 'Establishment' ie the CBI, the City, the Times, the civil service, the judiciary, most MPs, the PM and Leader of the Opposition backed Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh dear, I will have to repeat the Establishment thingy again. Boris Johnson is Eton and Oxford educated, a Tory, an MP, a Privy Councillor, an MP, a Prime Minister, is extremely rich, speaks as though he has 5 plums shoved up his arse, and is best buddies with Jacob Rees-Mogg. How much more fucking "Establishment" can anyone get? ! The "Establishment" owns Brexit. It is a distraction away form more important things. It is the new opiate of the masses, and you, along with just under 52% have been duped!Byronic said:
That’s a fair point. I seem to hold two entirely contradictory positions. 1. The tories will gain from patriotic voter frustration, and 2. The Establishment is successfully maneuvering against BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Then why on earth do you think Brexit is finished? It’s pretty clear there’s going to be an election. It’s likely the Tories will win it and, when they do, we’ll leave.Byronic said:
No, I don’t. I expect a significant poll shift to the Tories. If I’m wrong, shoot me. MetaphoricallyAnabobazina said:
“This is my analysis. And if you don’t like it, I have others.”Byronic said:Boris will be delighted with the BBC six. All about No Surrender by Bojo
Meanwhile the optics shown are EU flags flying above Parliament Sq and T May chortling over Boris’ discomfort (apparently)
Could easily be wrong, but I think this plays very well for BJ
I sincerely believe both of those and I can only console myself with the thought that I fit Jane Austen’s definition of irony, to a T
Let me have my first gin of the day and get back to you with a synthesis.
It was a majority of working class voters who delivered Brexit to regain sovereignty and gain greater control of immigration and they will never forgive the betrayal if they do not get it0 -
It needn't be 12 months - can be any custodial or, for expenses fraud only, non-custodial sentence. Peterborough was a much shorter custodial sentence, and Brecon was non-custodial but expenses related. The unsuccessful Ian Paisley one was suspension, so we've had the full range.kle4 said:
They can only happen after a trigger event. Is he likely to be suspended from the Commons or convicted of an expenses offence or given a 12 month custodial sentence? He was recently arresed per the story but that would no doubt take awhile if he is guilty.OldKingCole said:
Recall petition?TheScreamingEagles said:O’Mara story here.
https://twitter.com/samcoopernews/status/1168938556573868039?s=21
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I hope she does defy the demand and have the whip withdrawn. Whether one things Boris doing that is justified and great, or madness, he's thrown down the gauntlet to those who have doubts about his strategy, and right or wrong lets see as many as who have doubts pick up that gauntlet, rather than shuffle past it whilst muttering unhappily to themselves.AndyJS said:Theresa May being kicked out of the Conservative Party a matter of days after she was a Tory prime minister would be one of the most extraordinary developments in British politics since about 1956.
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He and the ERG went against the whip on a confidence matter? Are you sure of that?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not a joke. He was seriously poor today and is going to sack maybe 25 of his colleagues doing something he and the ERG did themselveskle4 said:
Good joke. What would be the point? There's no one to replace him who could command the confidence of the PCP, let alone be supported by the members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
I don't recall May making any vote a confidence matter, please can you tell me which vote she made an issue of confidence.0 -
An honourable man would. Boris might seek to merge with the Brexit party and accept a no deal pact.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris dreadful performance today and the number of conservative rebels standing for Oliver Letwin must raise the possibility Boris will have to resign
0 -
Well I’ve opened the Rioja.0
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Yes, sorry, got my 12 months mixed up with losing the seat automatically, rookie error. Any conviction, as you say, gets a recall going, a la Chris Davies the crook in Brecon.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It needn't be 12 months - can be any custodial or, for expenses fraud only, non-custodial sentence. Peterborough was a much shorter custodial sentence, and Brecon was non-custodial but expenses related. The unsuccessful Ian Paisley one was suspension, so we've had the full range.kle4 said:
They can only happen after a trigger event. Is he likely to be suspended from the Commons or convicted of an expenses offence or given a 12 month custodial sentence? He was recently arresed per the story but that would no doubt take awhile if he is guilty.OldKingCole said:
Recall petition?TheScreamingEagles said:O’Mara story here.
https://twitter.com/samcoopernews/status/1168938556573868039?s=21
0
