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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    philiph said:

    On the other hand, sometimes you have to rip the wound open, cauterize the wound, remove the infection and then healing can begin. You can't always cure without causing damage.

    It can be the way to start healing.
    Boris has done fairly well so far because he is not a healer. Views are so entrenched that a PM is better off fighting a battle to the death than attempting to surrender his values to people who won't give up fighting themselves.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019
    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    kinabalu said:

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
    they all need a break four weeks off should do it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    tpfkar said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Getting Phillip Lee in exchange for Jennie Rigg is like getting Ben Stokes for Jason Roy in my view

    Philip Lee is not Jason Roy, he's Tim Paine.
  • eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum

    It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.

    I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.

    The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
    If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
    By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
    As well as being distasteful, this argument has always struck me as probably incorrect.

    There's a fairly large element of people's views changing as they age for somewhat predictable reasons. Social order tends to be increasingly valued by older people as they become more physically vulnerable, and this surely contributes to a rightward shift on average. Similarly, people probably become more romantic about home and nation, and less concerned about job and economic implications of leaving the EU once they retire and own property (again on average).
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Much more of this and they'll be clamouring to bring back TM.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    Why would his resignation force an election?

    Now he's lost his majority, he can't even engineer a fake vote of no-confidence in his own government, unless the opposition cooperate.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    What a strange day and still a lot to go. Boris, a new PM looks like a drowning man. Appointing Cummings was a disaster for him personally.

    Boris as been careless with his Cummings. And it might end up with some people going to Labour.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    What a strange day and still a lot to go. Boris, a new PM looks like a drowning man. Appointing Cummings was a disaster for him personally.

    Given his well known bluntness and abraisive style I'm not sure why he was appointed anyway. When he comes face to face with people he just seems to p*ss tem off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888
    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    Why would his resignation force an election?

    Now he's lost his majority, he can't even engineer a fake vote of no-confidence in his own government, unless the opposition cooperate.
    John Mann would help him out lol
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kinabalu said:

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
    LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anyway
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    GIN1138 said:
    More good news. A serious liability
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    You have it a bit wrong.

    There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.
  • justin124 said:

    In terms of confidence, boris will get the support of Mann and Austin, possibly Hoey, it depends how many Tories vote against the government.......

    Mann would hardly support him on a VNOC!
    To spite Corbyn he would. Ok, maybe not support but abstain? Yeah could see that to spite Corbyn
    No - Mann would not want to be booted out of parliament, he likes the status too much. Hoey and Austin are going anyway so their position is different.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    How does him resigning force an election?
    Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.

    If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.

    The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    This is going to get ugly and unpleasant. The only place for Boris to go now is to get in front of a microphone and give it the full “us vs. them” line. Corbyn sounds like he’s shaping up for an election and so we’re going to have one. That one.

    Yuck.

    The only thing worse than that will be if the Remain side then wins. Because next time it won’t be Boris.

    Double yuck.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Byronic said:

    Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum

    It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.

    I have long said that a second referendum is the best way to secure Brexit. It is winnable by Leave, if the will of the people is as unchanged as Leavers think.

    Pretty pisspoor manufacturing and construction PMIs today, so that low £ not helping much. Services tommorow.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?

    Frank Field has resigned from the Labour Whip and is (from memory) planning to stand as an independent socialist at the next election. I doubt he will be in the next Parliament.
    Correct. And even if he were available his age and health would rule him out I think.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    You have it a bit wrong.

    There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.
    There really, really won’t. Not if Brexit is annulled. You have zero understanding of human emotionality.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    Quoting Ian Dunt. A new low Scotty
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    You have it a bit wrong.

    There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.
    I look forward to the GE leadership debates with Johnson, Hammond, Corbyn, and Swinson :-)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited September 2019

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    How does him resigning force an election?
    Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.

    If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.

    The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.
    I agree about the legislation but I don't think it is as simple as that. A motion needs to be passed in the form provided by the Act. Treating the central (only?) plank of your platform as an issue of confidence has no effect. Without a motion meeting the terms of the Act the 14 days doesn't even start to count. It's a bloody mess.
  • Byronic said:

    Watching it in Greece. Boris isn’t doing that bad. He’s just on a losing wicket. And all the Tories know it.

    Though a lot of the problems with the wicket are because of the way that BJ has run on the pitch, arguably since 2016, certainly since his games over the May deal.

    There was a piece, I think by Robert Peston, just before the leadership result was announced. It mused on the what if BJ has sent that other column to the Telegraph. The referendum would have gone the other way, Dave would have carried on until about now, all would be peaceful, and Boris would have been in prime position to take over in easy conditions.

    Funny old world.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
    LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
    dont upset the poor wee dears malc
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    That doesn't work. Con loyalists + DUP + SNP does not equal two-thirds. He needs Labour votes under FTPA terms, and if he tries to get around that restriction with a one-line bill the risk is that the Nats force him to apply for the A50 extension first.

    He needs a method that's foolproof. Simply resigning leaves no other party able to assemble a majority, and also means that he can keep his promise not to go to the European Council and ask for an extension.
  • Byronic said:


    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.

    Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.

    I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anyway
    What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    But this was what it was meant to do: The PM can't just call an election because he wants to. It needs the agreement of both government and opposition.
  • isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    yes
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    How does him resigning force an election?
    Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.

    If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.

    The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.
    Oh, it might happen. Anything might happen. But Boris Johnson can't force it to happen.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:


    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.

    Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.

    I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".

    Yes, maybe. But I think Boris will be seen as having done his best. And he will likely benefit. We shall soon find out.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anyway
    What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.
    Fixed terms are not a problem but the inability to frame confidence votes etc is
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs

    someone should point out that he is an MP
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anyway
    What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.
    Eh, both the US and Germany have fixed terms.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Noo said:

    Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs

    someone should point out that he is an MP
    Yes but someone has to tap the populist sentiment
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anyway
    An amendment to the FTPA would not go through before prorogation. All available time in the Lords will be taken up with the Benn bill.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Byronic said:


    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.

    Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.

    I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".

    The huge advantage Boris has is the Lib Dems are so far back in 3rd in so many Tory constituencies that people will still vote Labour if they wish to remain. had the Lib Dems had a successful 2017 election and a decent base then they'd be looking at taking 50-100 Tory seats.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    edited September 2019
    Question; Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it be repealed all together?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    How does him resigning force an election?
    Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.

    If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.

    The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.
    I agree about the legislation but I don't think it is as simple as that. A motion needs to be passed in the form provided by the Act. Treating the central (only?) plank of your platform as an issue of confidence has no effect. Without a motion meeting the terms of the Act the 14 days doesn't even start to count. It's a bloody mess.
    It is that simple. Once a new PM is installed and Johnson is LOTO, he can demand a VONC be held in that person's Government under the terms of the FTPA. If he's up against Corbyn he wins. If he's up against a caretaker he'll also win, unless Corbyn agrees to back that person for long enough to secure the A50 extension that all the Remainers want. But after that an election necessarily follows, because it clearly doesn't suit either Johnson or Corbyn to go into an indefinite holding pattern, circling a placeholder. Regardless, Johnson gets his election without having to go to the European Council to ask for the extension.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
  • Loving the headbangers having to own this shambles ... just a little at least.
  • DavidL said:

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
    And before Parliament is progrogued! :-D
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982
    isam said:

    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum

    It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.

    I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.

    The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
    If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
    By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
    Oh dear, what a dumb comment
    Was it the intention of Remain inclined folk to have a referendum every five years or so anyway, as the demographic change supposedly suited them?

    And how do they think this hilarious piece of perception goes down with people who have recently lost Leave voting parents and/or grandparents? Is it really that funny?
    The Good Friday Agreement recognizes this principle for re-assessment, albeit every seven years.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.

    He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."

    Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
    Thought so, quite a dramatic change in appearance
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?

    If only it were that simple.
    It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.

    He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
    He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force one
    Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.
    But this was what it was meant to do: The PM can't just call an election because he wants to. It needs the agreement of both government and opposition.
    Except it's crackers. It turns a Government that can't pass legislation into a powerless hostage. In what way does it help anyone if this Parliament goes limping on until May 2022 without anyone at all being able to command its confidence - or, for that matter, the MPs themselves being utterly incapable to resolve the totemic issue of the day.

    The only people it suits are those MPs who are afraid they might lose their jobs when they go to the electorate, and those so desperate to avoid the possibility of Britain leaving the EU that they're prepared to impose stasis upon the country in order to do it.

    Impotent Governments and deadlocked Parliaments alike need to be put out of our misery.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs

    someone should point out that he is an MP
    Yes but someone has to tap the populist sentiment
    Risky, given there are non-MPs who are also ready to scoop those votes. He might end up just pissing votes away to the BXP. Nigel Farage is not an MP, has never been an MP, and can therefore play on that anti-MP sentiment a little more convincingly.
  • I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    In a few weeks time they will realise they destroyed the hopes of Brexit at the start of the year. All because of their egos.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Two statements caught my attention among Johnson's bluster this afternoon.

    "We will obey the law" in answer to the question whether the government will comply with legislation mandating an extension. That removes one unknown.

    "What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" in answer to the question whether the whip will be removed from Tory MPs who vote against a deal assuming he gets one. Probably hypothetical but in the unlikely event that he gets a deal, very significant.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DavidL said:

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
    Can be done in a day if commons supports. Lords unlikely to block.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
    You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.

    Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
    Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum

    It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.

    I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.

    The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
    If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
    By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
    As well as being distasteful, this argument has always struck me as probably incorrect.

    There's a fairly large element of people's views changing as they age for somewhat predictable reasons. Social order tends to be increasingly valued by older people as they become more physically vulnerable, and this surely contributes to a rightward shift on average. Similarly, people probably become more romantic about home and nation, and less concerned about job and economic implications of leaving the EU once they retire and own property (again on average).
    I respectfully disagree. The dividing line here is between those who remember "Life Before the EEC" and those who don't. I'm kind of on the cusp. But those younger than me have only really known the EU as the norm.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    He's probably suffering from an overwhelming feeling of deja vu.

    Dangling over an abyss, waving a flag, desperately hoping that someone will save him ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
    She has had a tough time over the years, lets hope for a happier outcome this time:
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
    Thought so, quite a dramatic change in appearance
    She has had quite a bad time previously with 2 miscarriages. She has written about these in the papers. Looks to be doing well this time.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Has Dom Cummings personally arranged for all these EU flags to fly over Parliament Square?

    It looks like an invading army. It looks like we really have surrendered. It looks like the hammer and sickle flying in Prague in 1969.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Instead of rushing the debate so much, the HoC could try starting at 10:30am instead of 2:30pm. Lunch isn't that important.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
    You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.

    Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.
    Three line whip, they wont be Tories if they vote against anyway
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
    Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?
    Sorry, got percentages and seat numbers confounded.
  • malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
    LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
    Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
    Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?
    I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    AndyJS said:

    Instead of rushing the debate so much, the HoC could try starting at 10:30am instead of 2:30pm. Lunch isn't that important.

    You don't expect them to do their job sober, do you?
  • Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.

    In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide

    This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October

    I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.

    In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide

    This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October

    I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring

    I thought the mascara was a bit heavy, but otherwise not too bad.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Gabs2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
    Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?
    I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.
    My apologies - I got confused about which figures were seats and which were percentages.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?
  • That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
    She has had a tough time over the years, lets hope for a happier outcome this time:
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Is Stella Creasy pregnant?

    I believe she is.

    Nothing to do with me, guv :)
    Thought so, quite a dramatic change in appearance
    She has had quite a bad time previously with 2 miscarriages. She has written about these in the papers. Looks to be doing well this time.
    Good luck to her.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan

    IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.

    The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.

    Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...

    Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
    Lab 25 (50% tactical)
    LD 18 (75%)
    BXP 14 (20%)
    Gre 6 (75%)
    UKIP 2 (0%)

    Scotland...

    SNP 39
    Lab 19
    Con 18
    LD 10
    BXP 9
    Gre 3
    UKIP 1

    ...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
    Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?
    I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.
    My apologies - I got confused about which figures were seats and which were percentages.
    My fault for not being very clear.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Chris said:

    AndyJS said:

    Instead of rushing the debate so much, the HoC could try starting at 10:30am instead of 2:30pm. Lunch isn't that important.

    You don't expect them to do their job sober, do you?
    In fairness listening to this sober is a big ask.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson
    And with the Scots, including the inshore fisherfolk.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?
    Exactly. Which is why Corbyn’s Surrender Bill is precisely that.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    A watershed moment I have just watched a government minister for the first time in three years say why brexit is positive for the country and has benefits.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?

    That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.
    You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.

    Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.
    Who knows anymore? Its a shambles.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
    Cummings must have a plan for this situation. Looking forward to seeing what it is.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?
    Exactly. Which is why Corbyn’s Surrender Bill is precisely that.
    This could all turn out very badly. Stuck in limbo for years. Corbyn as the next PM. Farage as the next LotO. A recession despite staying in the EU. Maybe I should emigrate.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Gabs2 said:

    Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?
    Anyone who thinks the EU wants to extend further hasn't been paying much attention.
  • That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson
    It seems quite favourable to farmers on the mainland if they are less regulated than their NI counterparts. It's not like they won't be able to 'export' their food there.
  • This afternoon Johnson showed very clearly why he has spent his entire political career seeking to avoid scrutiny.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Byronic said:

    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
    Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.

    It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Chris said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?
    Anyone who thinks the EU wants to extend further hasn't been paying much attention.
    Why wouldn't they? They prevent any disruption, avoid the negative symbolism of a major member leaving, get to kick off the budget hole into the long grass. Macron might be the exception but he won't unilaterally force No Deal.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.

    Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
    LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
    Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
    So wha t ? Lots of people in business do this every week. If MPs dont like the liefstyle they shouldnt apply.
  • Barnesian said:

    Two statements caught my attention among Johnson's bluster this afternoon.

    "We will obey the law" in answer to the question whether the government will comply with legislation mandating an extension. That removes one unknown.

    "What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" in answer to the question whether the whip will be removed from Tory MPs who vote against a deal assuming he gets one. Probably hypothetical but in the unlikely event that he gets a deal, very significant.

    "What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" is an interesting quote form a man who defied the whip himself. Will he be tendering his own resignation from the party for his part in handing Jeremy Corbyn previous victories? He really is a two-faced dishonest little creep. Nothing but contempt
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Byronic said:

    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
    It's taken a very long time for the remainer majority in Parliament to show the courage of their convictions and willingness to reject the referendum result but we finally seem to have reached that day. Its been coming since June 2017.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson
    It seems quite favourable to farmers on the mainland if they are less regulated than their NI counterparts. It's not like they won't be able to 'export' their food there.
    With tariffs of up to 40% your average mainland farmer is going to be a lot more productive or do a lot of cost cutting.
  • That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson

    More immediately, it would go down like a cup of sick with the DUP and BXP. He’ll have to row back sharpish.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
    Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.

    It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
    Too late. You and your kind have spent three years doing your damndest to nullify the largest democratic vote in British history.

    Well, now you get your wish, it seems. You must own the consequences
  • That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-Johnson

    More immediately, it would go down like a cup of sick with the DUP and BXP. He’ll have to row back sharpish.

    It has been reported that Arlene suggested it.
  • Byronic said:

    It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.

    Brace.
    It is the pendulum effect and if that is true, the "fault" lies with the ERG and all the other tossers who thought they would position themselves one way in the referendum, and then as soon as they got their narrow victory thought they would stick bells and whistles on it and to hell with everyone else
This discussion has been closed.