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Boris has done fairly well so far because he is not a healer. Views are so entrenched that a PM is better off fighting a battle to the death than attempting to surrender his values to people who won't give up fighting themselves.philiph said:
On the other hand, sometimes you have to rip the wound open, cauterize the wound, remove the infection and then healing can begin. You can't always cure without causing damage.CarlottaVance said:
It can be the way to start healing.0 -
OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.-1 -
they all need a break four weeks off should do it.kinabalu said:
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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As well as being distasteful, this argument has always struck me as probably incorrect.eek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
There's a fairly large element of people's views changing as they age for somewhat predictable reasons. Social order tends to be increasingly valued by older people as they become more physically vulnerable, and this surely contributes to a rightward shift on average. Similarly, people probably become more romantic about home and nation, and less concerned about job and economic implications of leaving the EU once they retire and own property (again on average).0 -
Much more of this and they'll be clamouring to bring back TM.0
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Why would his resignation force an election?Black_Rook said:
Now he's lost his majority, he can't even engineer a fake vote of no-confidence in his own government, unless the opposition cooperate.0 -
Boris as been careless with his Cummings. And it might end up with some people going to Labour.mr-claypole said:What a strange day and still a lot to go. Boris, a new PM looks like a drowning man. Appointing Cummings was a disaster for him personally.
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Given his well known bluntness and abraisive style I'm not sure why he was appointed anyway. When he comes face to face with people he just seems to p*ss tem off.mr-claypole said:What a strange day and still a lot to go. Boris, a new PM looks like a drowning man. Appointing Cummings was a disaster for him personally.
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John Mann would help him out lolChris said:
Why would his resignation force an election?Black_Rook said:
Now he's lost his majority, he can't even engineer a fake vote of no-confidence in his own government, unless the opposition cooperate.0 -
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.kinabalu said:
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anywayDavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
More good news. A serious liabilityGIN1138 said:0 -
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You have it a bit wrong.Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.0 -
No - Mann would not want to be booted out of parliament, he likes the status too much. Hoey and Austin are going anyway so their position is different.dyedwoolie said:
To spite Corbyn he would. Ok, maybe not support but abstain? Yeah could see that to spite Corbynjustin124 said:
Mann would hardly support him on a VNOC!dyedwoolie said:In terms of confidence, boris will get the support of Mann and Austin, possibly Hoey, it depends how many Tories vote against the government.......
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Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.DavidL said:
How does him resigning force an election?Black_Rook said:
If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.
The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.0 -
This is going to get ugly and unpleasant. The only place for Boris to go now is to get in front of a microphone and give it the full “us vs. them” line. Corbyn sounds like he’s shaping up for an election and so we’re going to have one. That one.
Yuck.
The only thing worse than that will be if the Remain side then wins. Because next time it won’t be Boris.
Double yuck.0 -
I have long said that a second referendum is the best way to secure Brexit. It is winnable by Leave, if the will of the people is as unchanged as Leavers think.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
Pretty pisspoor manufacturing and construction PMIs today, so that low £ not helping much. Services tommorow.0 -
Correct. And even if he were available his age and health would rule him out I think.eek said:
Frank Field has resigned from the Labour Whip and is (from memory) planning to stand as an independent socialist at the next election. I doubt he will be in the next Parliament.DavidL said:In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?
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There really, really won’t. Not if Brexit is annulled. You have zero understanding of human emotionality.Chris said:
You have it a bit wrong.Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.
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Quoting Ian Dunt. A new low ScottyScott_P said:0 -
I look forward to the GE leadership debates with Johnson, Hammond, Corbyn, and Swinson :-)Chris said:
You have it a bit wrong.Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
There will be a huge patriotic swing in support of Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and the others who tried so hard to deliver Brexit, while Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg were scuppering it.
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Is Stella Creasy pregnant?0
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I agree about the legislation but I don't think it is as simple as that. A motion needs to be passed in the form provided by the Act. Treating the central (only?) plank of your platform as an issue of confidence has no effect. Without a motion meeting the terms of the Act the 14 days doesn't even start to count. It's a bloody mess.Black_Rook said:
Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.DavidL said:
How does him resigning force an election?Black_Rook said:
If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.
The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.0 -
dont upset the poor wee dears malcmalcolmg said:
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.kinabalu said:
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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Though a lot of the problems with the wicket are because of the way that BJ has run on the pitch, arguably since 2016, certainly since his games over the May deal.Byronic said:Watching it in Greece. Boris isn’t doing that bad. He’s just on a losing wicket. And all the Tories know it.
There was a piece, I think by Robert Peston, just before the leadership result was announced. It mused on the what if BJ has sent that other column to the Telegraph. The referendum would have gone the other way, Dave would have carried on until about now, all would be peaceful, and Boris would have been in prime position to take over in easy conditions.
Funny old world.1 -
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That doesn't work. Con loyalists + DUP + SNP does not equal two-thirds. He needs Labour votes under FTPA terms, and if he tries to get around that restriction with a one-line bill the risk is that the Nats force him to apply for the A50 extension first.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:
He needs a method that's foolproof. Simply resigning leaves no other party able to assemble a majority, and also means that he can keep his promise not to go to the European Council and ask for an extension.0 -
Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.Byronic said:
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.
I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".
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What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.dyedwoolie said:
Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anywayDavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:
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Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs0
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But this was what it was meant to do: The PM can't just call an election because he wants to. It needs the agreement of both government and opposition.DavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
yesisam said:Is Stella Creasy pregnant?
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Oh, it might happen. Anything might happen. But Boris Johnson can't force it to happen.Black_Rook said:
Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.DavidL said:
How does him resigning force an election?Black_Rook said:
If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.
The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.0 -
Yes, maybe. But I think Boris will be seen as having done his best. And he will likely benefit. We shall soon find out.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.Byronic said:
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.
I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".0 -
Fixed terms are not a problem but the inability to frame confidence votes etc issurbiton19 said:
What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.dyedwoolie said:
Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anywayDavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
someone should point out that he is an MPdyedwoolie said:Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs
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Eh, both the US and Germany have fixed terms.surbiton19 said:
What's wrong with FTPA ? The US , Germany and many others don't need it. Why should the PM have an advantage ? It 's like in Crocket, you always win the toss.dyedwoolie said:
Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anywayDavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
HYUFD may not like this.TGOHF said:
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Yes but someone has to tap the populist sentimentNoo said:
someone should point out that he is an MPdyedwoolie said:Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs
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An amendment to the FTPA would not go through before prorogation. All available time in the Lords will be taken up with the Benn bill.dyedwoolie said:
Enough to propose an amendment to the FTPA. And Corbyn will probably support anywayDavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
The huge advantage Boris has is the Lib Dems are so far back in 3rd in so many Tory constituencies that people will still vote Labour if they wish to remain. had the Lib Dems had a successful 2017 election and a decent base then they'd be looking at taking 50-100 Tory seats.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Given where Brexit Party votes tend to come from, it's hard for there to be a swing BOTH to Johnson and the Brexit Party.Byronic said:
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
Where would it come from? Lib Dem/Green? The overwhelming majority of them will be delighted. Labour? Maybe a little, but it'd be somewhat eccentric to have stuck with Corbyn through thick and thin, and suddenly decide to swing behind Johnson, Raab, Cummings et al.
I suspect the move would be Tory to Brexit Party overwhelmingly. It's not enough for Johnson to say, "I tried to get us out, but these bloomin' MPs!" The fact is he's in the top job, and he'll have comprehensively FAILED - no use saying "but the nasty GP chap from Bracknell was mean to poor little me".0 -
Question; Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it be repealed all together?0
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It is that simple. Once a new PM is installed and Johnson is LOTO, he can demand a VONC be held in that person's Government under the terms of the FTPA. If he's up against Corbyn he wins. If he's up against a caretaker he'll also win, unless Corbyn agrees to back that person for long enough to secure the A50 extension that all the Remainers want. But after that an election necessarily follows, because it clearly doesn't suit either Johnson or Corbyn to go into an indefinite holding pattern, circling a placeholder. Regardless, Johnson gets his election without having to go to the European Council to ask for the extension.DavidL said:
I agree about the legislation but I don't think it is as simple as that. A motion needs to be passed in the form provided by the Act. Treating the central (only?) plank of your platform as an issue of confidence has no effect. Without a motion meeting the terms of the Act the 14 days doesn't even start to count. It's a bloody mess.Black_Rook said:
Oh, easy. Any successor he cares to nominate to the Queen won't last long. If he advises HM to call for a Remain unity figure like Ken Clarke or Phillip Hammond (and an ex-Tory recently deprived of the whip would be the best bet) then such a figure would have no party and no platform, and they would either be removed immediately by a VONC (which would trigger the cascade towards a GE under the FTPA) or the House would vote for a dissolution once said caretaker had applied for an A50 extension.DavidL said:
How does him resigning force an election?Black_Rook said:
If he were to nominate Corbyn, on the other hand, I would expect a VONC to be immediately successful under all circumstances.
The FTPA is appallingly bad legislation: the Government should not be deprived of the right to call an election if defeated on an issue of confidence. But the Act can be circumvented in this fashion without the Government having to vote no confidence in itself.0 -
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
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Loving the headbangers having to own this shambles ... just a little at least.0
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And before Parliament is progrogued! :-DDavidL said:
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
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The Good Friday Agreement recognizes this principle for re-assessment, albeit every seven years.isam said:
Was it the intention of Remain inclined folk to have a referendum every five years or so anyway, as the demographic change supposedly suited them?Brom said:
Oh dear, what a dumb commenteek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
And how do they think this hilarious piece of perception goes down with people who have recently lost Leave voting parents and/or grandparents? Is it really that funny?0 -
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.
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Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.
He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."
Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.0 -
Except it's crackers. It turns a Government that can't pass legislation into a powerless hostage. In what way does it help anyone if this Parliament goes limping on until May 2022 without anyone at all being able to command its confidence - or, for that matter, the MPs themselves being utterly incapable to resolve the totemic issue of the day.eristdoof said:
But this was what it was meant to do: The PM can't just call an election because he wants to. It needs the agreement of both government and opposition.DavidL said:
Tories+SNP do not equal 2/3. A VoNC in themselves? God that stupid Act is a nuisance. It was necessary to stop the Tories shafting the Lib Dems in Coalition (ha, that worked as well as the rest of it) but there should have been a sunset clause for that Parliament.dyedwoolie said:
He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:
The only people it suits are those MPs who are afraid they might lose their jobs when they go to the electorate, and those so desperate to avoid the possibility of Britain leaving the EU that they're prepared to impose stasis upon the country in order to do it.
Impotent Governments and deadlocked Parliaments alike need to be put out of our misery.0 -
Risky, given there are non-MPs who are also ready to scoop those votes. He might end up just pissing votes away to the BXP. Nigel Farage is not an MP, has never been an MP, and can therefore play on that anti-MP sentiment a little more convincingly.dyedwoolie said:
Yes but someone has to tap the populist sentimentNoo said:
someone should point out that he is an MPdyedwoolie said:Boris is going full tilt for us vs them. It's not a daft policy in electoral terms, people really f*cking hate MPs
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In a few weeks time they will realise they destroyed the hopes of Brexit at the start of the year. All because of their egos.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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Two statements caught my attention among Johnson's bluster this afternoon.
"We will obey the law" in answer to the question whether the government will comply with legislation mandating an extension. That removes one unknown.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" in answer to the question whether the whip will be removed from Tory MPs who vote against a deal assuming he gets one. Probably hypothetical but in the unlikely event that he gets a deal, very significant.0 -
Can be done in a day if commons supports. Lords unlikely to block.DavidL said:
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
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You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.DavidL said:
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.0 -
Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?Gabs2 said:
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.0 -
I respectfully disagree. The dividing line here is between those who remember "Life Before the EEC" and those who don't. I'm kind of on the cusp. But those younger than me have only really known the EU as the norm.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
As well as being distasteful, this argument has always struck me as probably incorrect.eek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
There's a fairly large element of people's views changing as they age for somewhat predictable reasons. Social order tends to be increasingly valued by older people as they become more physically vulnerable, and this surely contributes to a rightward shift on average. Similarly, people probably become more romantic about home and nation, and less concerned about job and economic implications of leaving the EU once they retire and own property (again on average).0 -
He's probably suffering from an overwhelming feeling of deja vu.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Dangling over an abyss, waving a flag, desperately hoping that someone will save him ...1 -
Has Dom Cummings personally arranged for all these EU flags to fly over Parliament Square?
It looks like an invading army. It looks like we really have surrendered. It looks like the hammer and sickle flying in Prague in 1969.0 -
Instead of rushing the debate so much, the HoC could try starting at 10:30am instead of 2:30pm. Lunch isn't that important.0
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Three line whip, they wont be Tories if they vote against anywayDanny565 said:
You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.DavidL said:
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.0 -
Sorry, got percentages and seat numbers confounded.Carnyx said:
Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?Gabs2 said:
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.0 -
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.malcolmg said:
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.kinabalu said:
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
0 -
I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.Carnyx said:
Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?Gabs2 said:
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.0 -
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Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.
In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide
This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October
I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring0 -
I thought the mascara was a bit heavy, but otherwise not too bad.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.
In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide
This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October
I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring0 -
My apologies - I got confused about which figures were seats and which were percentages.Gabs2 said:
I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.Carnyx said:
Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?Gabs2 said:
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.0 -
Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?SouthamObserver said:0 -
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:0 -
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.0 -
My fault for not being very clear.Carnyx said:
My apologies - I got confused about which figures were seats and which were percentages.Gabs2 said:
I don't understand the question. I put in the average numbers for Scotland from Wikipedia's page on next GE polling.Carnyx said:
Eh? Some mistake surely in the Scottish seats? Wrong total for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, or all Holyrood?Gabs2 said:
Playing around with Electoral Calculus. If we put in the following vote shares...Byronic said:OK, I’m calling this. Having just read the Guardian piece on brexit and Wigan
IF Brexit is scuppered, then there will be a huge, guilty, patriotic swing in support of Boris, the Tories, maybe BXP.
The same happened to the SNP. What it will mean, I know not.
Con 31 (0% willing to be tactical)
Lab 25 (50% tactical)
LD 18 (75%)
BXP 14 (20%)
Gre 6 (75%)
UKIP 2 (0%)
Scotland...
SNP 39
Lab 19
Con 18
LD 10
BXP 9
Gre 3
UKIP 1
...then we get a Tory majority of 34.0 -
And with the Scots, including the inshore fisherfolk.Nigel_Foremain said:
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:0 -
Exactly. Which is why Corbyn’s Surrender Bill is precisely that.Gabs2 said:
Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?SouthamObserver said:0 -
A watershed moment I have just watched a government minister for the first time in three years say why brexit is positive for the country and has benefits.0
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Who knows anymore? Its a shambles.Danny565 said:
You'd expect the Tory rebellion to be bigger on calling an election than it would be on extending Article 50.DavidL said:
That could be done. Needs to pass both Houses though.Ploppikins said:Would it be possible to pass an amendment to the FTPA to allow for a one off election, or will it repealed all together?
Anne Milton in Guildford (56% Remain, very strong LibDem territory not too long ago), for example, might well end up folding tonight out of fear of losing the whip, but she surely isn't keen on facing an election anytime soon.0 -
Cummings must have a plan for this situation. Looking forward to seeing what it is.Byronic said:
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.1 -
This could all turn out very badly. Stuck in limbo for years. Corbyn as the next PM. Farage as the next LotO. A recession despite staying in the EU. Maybe I should emigrate.Byronic said:
Exactly. Which is why Corbyn’s Surrender Bill is precisely that.Gabs2 said:
Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?SouthamObserver said:0 -
Anyone who thinks the EU wants to extend further hasn't been paying much attention.Gabs2 said:
Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?SouthamObserver said:0 -
It seems quite favourable to farmers on the mainland if they are less regulated than their NI counterparts. It's not like they won't be able to 'export' their food there.Nigel_Foremain said:
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:0 -
This afternoon Johnson showed very clearly why he has spent his entire political career seeking to avoid scrutiny.0
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Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.Byronic said:
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.
It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.0 -
Why wouldn't they? They prevent any disruption, avoid the negative symbolism of a major member leaving, get to kick off the budget hole into the long grass. Macron might be the exception but he won't unilaterally force No Deal.Chris said:
Anyone who thinks the EU wants to extend further hasn't been paying much attention.Gabs2 said:
Why would the EU change even a punctuation mark in the deal when they can extend Brexit at will?SouthamObserver said:0 -
So wha t ? Lots of people in business do this every week. If MPs dont like the liefstyle they shouldnt apply.Nigel_Foremain said:
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.malcolmg said:
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.kinabalu said:
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
0 -
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" is an interesting quote form a man who defied the whip himself. Will he be tendering his own resignation from the party for his part in handing Jeremy Corbyn previous victories? He really is a two-faced dishonest little creep. Nothing but contemptBarnesian said:Two statements caught my attention among Johnson's bluster this afternoon.
"We will obey the law" in answer to the question whether the government will comply with legislation mandating an extension. That removes one unknown.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" in answer to the question whether the whip will be removed from Tory MPs who vote against a deal assuming he gets one. Probably hypothetical but in the unlikely event that he gets a deal, very significant.0 -
It's taken a very long time for the remainer majority in Parliament to show the courage of their convictions and willingness to reject the referendum result but we finally seem to have reached that day. Its been coming since June 2017.Byronic said:
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.0 -
With tariffs of up to 40% your average mainland farmer is going to be a lot more productive or do a lot of cost cutting.Luckyguy1983 said:
It seems quite favourable to farmers on the mainland if they are less regulated than their NI counterparts. It's not like they won't be able to 'export' their food there.Nigel_Foremain said:
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:0 -
More immediately, it would go down like a cup of sick with the DUP and BXP. He’ll have to row back sharpish.Nigel_Foremain said:
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:
0 -
Too late. You and your kind have spent three years doing your damndest to nullify the largest democratic vote in British history.Foxy said:
Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.Byronic said:
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.
It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
Well, now you get your wish, it seems. You must own the consequences0 -
It has been reported that Arlene suggested it.SouthamObserver said:
More immediately, it would go down like a cup of sick with the DUP and BXP. He’ll have to row back sharpish.Nigel_Foremain said:
That will go down well with farmers on the mainland who are not part of the single market who have their livelihoods removed by Boris-its-going-to-be-great-JohnsonSouthamObserver said:0 -
It is the pendulum effect and if that is true, the "fault" lies with the ERG and all the other tossers who thought they would position themselves one way in the referendum, and then as soon as they got their narrow victory thought they would stick bells and whistles on it and to hell with everyone elseByronic said:
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.SouthamObserver said:
Brace.0
This discussion has been closed.