It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
Never understood why Leavers are so against a 2nd ref. They won the last one, they can do it again.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.
Is it meaningless though ?
Whoever is PM will have to abide by the decision on the 17th or pass legislation pdq to overrule it.
Are the DUP hinting they might not support a No Deal?
Of course the DUP don't want no deal - they know as well as anyone it will lead to a referendum on Irish unity PDQ.
The DUP don't want to Brexit at all, they just don't want to be seen to stop it. They are interested in preserving the union and they really don't give a sh*t about anything else.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.
I am not so sanguine about this Parliament voting for an election. Turkeys and Christmas comes to mind. I think that this does matter.
"He will set conditions that make no deal inevitable, he will make sure as much blame as possible is attached to the EU and this House for that consequence, and then as quickly as he can, he will fight a flag-raising election before the consequences of no deal become obvious,"
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
They've taken the Tory rebel figures from Alex Wickham's work on Buzzfeed. So they have Greg Clark, Ken Clarke, Stephen Hammond and Anne Milton down as voting with the government which in the case of the first 3 seems... unlikely.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.
Anyone seen him anywhere on screen? is he there? If not 1 more Tory being loyal would be enough for a tie. I must say I expected the government to lose this by 20-30 standing the rebels strength this morning.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.
Is it meaningless though ?
Whoever is PM will have to abide by the decision on the 17th or pass legislation pdq to overrule it.
I'm not entirely sure that is true. The bookmakers seem to suggest a high chance of no deal but also think Letwin will pass.
28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
That’s one heck of a personal vote he thinks he has
His ego is bigger than his brain. He'll be marmalised.
He had already been no-confidenced by his constituency party, and so would have been deselected anyway. It seem's like they forgt the rule "better iin the tent pissing out".
28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
That’s one heck of a personal vote he thinks he has
His ego is bigger than his brain. He'll be marmalised.
He had already been no-confidenced by his constituency party, and so would have been deselected anyway. It seem's like they forgt the rule "better iin the tent pissing out".
He'll cause less headaches outside the Tory party. I imagine Boris won't be too disappointed.
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12? Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.
Anyone seen him anywhere on screen? is he there? If not 1 more Tory being loyal would be enough for a tie. I must say I expected the government to lose this by 20-30 standing the rebels strength this morning.
A defeat of 3 is a very best case scenario for the Gov't, the tweet has the spread as [3,35] so the expectation is the Gov't will lose by 19.
Bonus point to the first PB'er to identify the only Tory who voted against MV3 from the Remain perspective and who will (presumably) vote with the Government against the motion today.
Her behaviour is more than a little strange, considering her staunch defence of Tim Farron in the past. As far as I can see, at least Lee didn't vote against banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, as Farron did.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
I wonder if the Liberal Democrats will regret Phillip Lee calling English nationalism a "disease"? Given Welsh, Scottish and Irish nationalism are all accepted as legitimate currency, it could cause a backlash in England.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
Oh dear, what a dumb comment
Have you seen the demographics of the typical Brexit / UKIP voter?
In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
Oh dear, what a dumb comment
Was it the intention of Remain inclined folk to have a referendum every five years or so anyway, as the demographic change supposedly suited them?
And how do they think this hilarious piece of perception goes down with people who have recently lost Leave voting parents and/or grandparents? Is it really that funny?
I wonder if the Liberal Democrats will regret Phillip Lee calling English nationalism a "disease"? Given Welsh, Scottish and Irish nationalism are all accepted as legitimate currency, it could cause a backlash in England.
Depends how it's framed. Current Lib Dem voters, given England's dominant place in the union, would not disagree, holding that nationalism that seeks to enhance the position of an already dominant group is, indeed, dangerous. Potential Lib Dem voters, if they are unionists, may agree if they are consistent that any stripe of nationalism in these islands is dangerous - if only to the union..
On the other hand, sometimes you have to rip the wound open, cauterize the wound, remove the infection and then healing can begin. You can't always cure without causing damage.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
Oh dear, what a dumb comment
Have you seen the demographics of the typical Brexit / UKIP voter?
Just an unemotional piece of data. Each year 0.5m people die in the UK. Make out what you want to.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.
Just stop it. It is just as unacceptable
In fact it is unimaginable that anyone would rejoice in death of anyone
In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?
Frank Field has resigned from the Labour Whip and is (from memory) planning to stand as an independent socialist at the next election. I doubt he will be in the next Parliament.
Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?
If only it were that simple.
It is. Boris Johnson can force an election if determined to do so.
He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
Cummins will probably (rightly in my opinion) advise him to do that rather than sign the letter or some such, but Johnson I reckon likes the trappings of office too much to take such a gamble. He's set off on a path where he basically needs to constantly double down (And becoming LOTO is probably necessary and makes logical sense given his speech last night) but I'm thinking he might just sign the letter. The Tories would rightly be crucified in such a scenario and my Baker 100-1 bet becomes very live indeed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
I assume he is looking to be pushed into an election, so is wanting the vote to go against him.
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
Whoever is PM will have to abide by the decision on the 17th or pass legislation pdq to overrule it.
The DUP don't want to Brexit at all, they just don't want to be seen to stop it. They are interested in preserving the union and they really don't give a sh*t about anything else.
"He will set conditions that make no deal inevitable, he will make sure as much blame as possible is attached to the EU and this House for that consequence, and then as quickly as he can, he will fight a flag-raising election before the consequences of no deal become obvious,"
Been in a champagne bar with JohnO for the past few hours so haven’t been following the news.
He wasn't up to being Foreign Secretary. He isn't up to being Prime Minister.
As an aside, I'll be afk pretty much all day tomorrow. Thankfully, nothing important or interesting shall be happening, so I won't miss much.
And how do they think this hilarious piece of perception goes down with people who have recently lost Leave voting parents and/or grandparents? Is it really that funny?
He can resign as Prime Minister and fight it as Leader of the Opposition.
It can be the way to start healing.
In fact it is unimaginable that anyone would rejoice in death of anyone
The Tories would rightly be crucified in such a scenario and my Baker 100-1 bet becomes very live indeed.