It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
Is it me or have Boris and Cummings made the situation worse as the day goes on?
They have managed to make things worse action by action since last Wednesday.
You’re both wrong. Boris and Cummings are playing a terrible hand rather well. Doing as good as could seriously be expected. Trouble is: it’s a terrible hand (as we all acknowledged when Boris took power). Almost unplayable.
It’s a tragedy they weren’t in power in 2016. I think they would have delivered a decent soft Brexit. But it’s too late now.
You flopping around like a terrified windsock is the one constant in the entire process.
650 elected. 1 doesn't vote (Speaker). 7 don't attend. 642 voting. 321 for a majority. Con won 318 last election, 10 DUP. Con loses 3 to Change UK, 1 Nick Boles, 1 to Speaker, 1 By Election loss (Brecon) and Elphick suspended. Now lose Phillip Lee.
Officially (I know, I know) - 310 Con - 10 DUP. Government votes now only 320. Maximum potentially opposed 322.
The Deputy Speakers make it harder, but I believe 2 Labour and 1 Con, so nominally 319 v 320. Government Minority (including C&S) = -1 Government Minority on all other matters = -21
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
It feels like February 1945 to me.
Yes maybe. Does Boris have an Ardennes offensive or a V2 up his sleeve?
28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
He is a gonner like Chukka Ryan Gapes at al
I'm sure you're right. But enjoy the moment, because across the UK, there will be millions of voters who've voted Tory through thick and thin while it could accommodate Ken Clarke/Alistair Burt/Justine Greening/Philip Lee/Philip Hammond/David Gauke etc etc, but who wouldn't touch the current frontbench with someone else's.
There seems to be an astonishing amount of bunker mentality/groupthink along the Johnson-Cummings axis that they're going to romp home on the grateful thanks of previously disenfranchised Brexiteers from Mansfield and Stoke. But if they leak a similar number out the other end, or indeed Labour comes to its senses before they do and bothers to fight for the middle half of the electorate, they've had it.
Is it me or have Boris and Cummings made the situation worse as the day goes on?
They have managed to make things worse action by action since last Wednesday.
You’re both wrong. Boris and Cummings are playing a terrible hand rather well. Doing as good as could seriously be expected. Trouble is: it’s a terrible hand (as we all acknowledged when Boris took power). Almost unplayable.
It’s a tragedy they weren’t in power in 2016. I think they would have delivered a decent soft Brexit. But it’s too late now.
You flopping around like a terrified windsock is the one constant in the entire process.
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
It feels like February 1945 to me.
Wrong world war. This is the 37 days leading to the Great War, when everyone could see war was inevitable, agreed they had to stop it, but no-one knew how.
I think they might be trying to sound as reasonable as possible to make this seem like BJ’s fault. “Letting MPs sit in October...”means completely backing down on the signature move of the opening of his premiership. He won’t do that.
Second person sounds like Clark who said he would vote with the government if they guaranteed a vote on No Deal next month. Some pretty desperate briefing going on at the moment.
Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).
I think they might be trying to sound as reasonable as possible to make this seem like BJ’s fault. “Letting MPs sit in October...”means completely backing down on the signature move of the opening of his premiership. He won’t do that.
I hope so, but one can never underestimate the gutlessness of the Amber Rudd wing of Tory MPs.
28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
That’s one heck of a personal vote he thinks he has
His ego is bigger than his brain. He'll be marmalised.
Lee is still a practising doctor on the side. He has risen as far as he is likely to in government, PUS for something or other iirc. He will be all right.
Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).
Hammond has the support of his constituency executive. That's not quite the same.
28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
That’s one heck of a personal vote he thinks he has
His ego is bigger than his brain. He'll be marmalised.
Lee is still a practising doctor on the side. He has risen as far as he is likely to in government, PUS for something or other iirc. He will be all right.
True, just going to be an embarrassment, and given what we know of his ego I doubt he will take it too well. Unless of course he abandons Bracknell and stands elsewhere.
Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).
Hammond by all accounts does not have the support of Runnymede Conservatives.
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
Probably the best chance for Brexit now is a new deal negotiated by a Corbyn government ;-)
Trump has become decidedly more articulate in recent weeks. He’s still wildly eccentric, but his tweets and speeches are more cogent and grammatical. Odd.
Trump has become decidedly more articulate in recent weeks. He’s still wildly eccentric, but his tweets and speeches are more cogent and grammatical. Odd.
Ooh when's the By Election?! Oh, of course, there wont be one #democrats
Yawn.
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.
Given there will be a GE anyway before any by election could be held, what would be the point in Lee resigning his seat? His constituents will have their say within weeks.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
Small aside, but I happened to see that The Rise of the Hellenistic Kingdoms (336-250 BC) by Philip Matyszak came out a few days ago.
It's about 180 pages or so, which means it'll just be an overview but I rather like the author so I might give it a look. It also covers more scope than any other single volume I've seen (possibly excepting Dividing the Spoils by Robin Waterfield, although that uses the abomination of Before Common Era).
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
Nah he still has more chance of winning a GE than another referendum, the leave-remain split in the country is still favourable to leave on a FPTP basis - certainly over a referendum.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
But the reason that was never done was that it would split the Tory party between No Dealers and sane people.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
What are you smoking? No chance anyone is calling a second ref. The Lib Dems and SNP only have about 60 MPs between them.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
Surely you mean No Deal vs Remain? There isn't a deal on which to hold a referendum (other than May's, which he's torn up).
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
A referendum requires 6-9 months - Boris doesn't have time.
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
Never understood why Leavers are so against a 2nd ref. They won the last one, they can do it again.
Yes. Presumably The Telegraph has been ordered to push 'Remainers have scuppered our chances of getting a Brexit deal' at every conceivable opportunity.
Comments
650 elected. 1 doesn't vote (Speaker). 7 don't attend. 642 voting. 321 for a majority.
Con won 318 last election, 10 DUP.
Con loses 3 to Change UK, 1 Nick Boles, 1 to Speaker, 1 By Election loss (Brecon) and Elphick suspended.
Now lose Phillip Lee.
Officially (I know, I know) - 310 Con - 10 DUP.
Government votes now only 320.
Maximum potentially opposed 322.
The Deputy Speakers make it harder, but I believe 2 Labour and 1 Con, so nominally 319 v 320.
Government Minority (including C&S) = -1
Government Minority on all other matters = -21
If not, then you’re right. It’s 1945.
There seems to be an astonishing amount of bunker mentality/groupthink along the Johnson-Cummings axis that they're going to romp home on the grateful thanks of previously disenfranchised Brexiteers from Mansfield and Stoke. But if they leak a similar number out the other end, or indeed Labour comes to its senses before they do and bothers to fight for the middle half of the electorate, they've had it.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).
Ok make that a lot.
Thank you to TSE and OGH for publishing it too and providing the platform and opportunity.
We need a free trade arrangement Trump puts America first.
We accept what is offered no matter how bad.
One quick correction of fact: Bercow is now in his 11th year of his 9-year term. He was first elected Speaker in June 2009.
See this is the problem.. All these MPs think they are starring in their own soap opera meanwhile the voters that put them there can go to hell.
Take back control aye.
This HOC is tired, weary, bad tempered, and worst of all incompetent
I am at the stage that I really am not bothered about the make up of the next HOC I just want this parliament over and done with
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
It's about 180 pages or so, which means it'll just be an overview but I rather like the author so I might give it a look. It also covers more scope than any other single volume I've seen (possibly excepting Dividing the Spoils by Robin Waterfield, although that uses the abomination of Before Common Era).
Is he banned?
"I will surrender no ground to a lickspittle who takes his orders from Berlin". Or some such.