politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker
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It's an Addled Parliament.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There has to be an election.dyedwoolie said:Blackford supports an election
This HOC is tired, weary, bad tempered, and worst of all incompetent
I am at the stage that I really am not bothered about the make up of the next HOC I just want this parliament over and done with0 -
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Surely he has to be in the Chamber today of all days?bigjohnowls said:Where is HYUFD.
Is he banned?0 -
That’s not very insightful.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Given the numbers it would be quite useful to know what Mr O'Mara is doing.0
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Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless0
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Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/11689039090600222750 -
... trouble is you can't make 'No Deal' vague.Jonathan said:
Never understood why Leavers are so against a 2nd ref. They won the last one, they can do it again.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Hammond's vote?Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless
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Was he looking for Hammonds vote or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless
I assume he is looking to be pushed into an election, so is wanting the vote to go against him.0 -
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You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.0
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Are the DUP hinting they might not support a No Deal?0
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His vote was gone. Did you not hear him this morning?Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless
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He doesn't do self-awareness, does he?TGOHF said:0 -
No Boris's - he is very poorLuckyguy1983 said:
Hammond's vote?Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless
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He's poor in any context where people don't adore him unconditionallySlackbladder said:You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.
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May was very good at the dispatch box. Fat lot of good it did her.0
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I expressed that badly. I meant Boris losing the vote tonightphiliph said:
Was he looking for Hammonds vote or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris reply to Hammond has just lost his vote. Utterly useless
I assume he is looking to be pushed into an election, so is wanting the vote to go against him.0 -
This is very exciting isn't it?0
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He is todaySlackbladder said:You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.
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That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
Too close to call !Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/11689039090600222750 -
Hopefully he’ll be cross-examined by a QC before too long. They’ll need to wipe him off the floor.Slackbladder said:You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.
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Of course in Scott's world only MPs with FBPE next to their name can do any goodScott_P said:
He's poor in any context where people don't adore him unconditionallySlackbladder said:You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.
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Watching it in Greece. Boris isn’t doing that bad. He’s just on a losing wicket. And all the Tories know it.0
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..0
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It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
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Is it meaningless though ?Brom said:
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
Whoever is PM will have to abide by the decision on the 17th or pass legislation pdq to overrule it.0 -
Dont kid yrselfsurbiton19 said:
Too close to call !Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/11689039090600222750 -
Of course the DUP don't want no deal - they know as well as anyone it will lead to a referendum on Irish unity PDQ.Slackbladder said:Are the DUP hinting they might not support a No Deal?
The DUP don't want to Brexit at all, they just don't want to be seen to stop it. They are interested in preserving the union and they really don't give a sh*t about anything else.0 -
Am I alone in thinking "Gordon Brown"?Slackbladder said:You know what... Boris is quite poor at the box isn't he.
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I am not so sanguine about this Parliament voting for an election. Turkeys and Christmas comes to mind. I think that this does matter.Brom said:
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
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But Lee would not have voted with the government on Brexit issues anyway.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Good to see the Lib Dems falling apart along with the government and the opposition. SNP the only party at the moment with a well oiled machine!Tissue_Price said:..
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Edward Leigh is puce.0
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On Boris's strategy:Jonathan said:
That is symbolic. Grown-ups corner.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
What did he say?CarlottaVance said:Ken Clarke nails it succinctly and elegantly.
"He will set conditions that make no deal inevitable, he will make sure as much blame as possible is attached to the EU and this House for that consequence, and then as quickly as he can, he will fight a flag-raising election before the consequences of no deal become obvious,"0 -
They've taken the Tory rebel figures from Alex Wickham's work on Buzzfeed. So they have Greg Clark, Ken Clarke, Stephen Hammond and Anne Milton down as voting with the government which in the case of the first 3 seems... unlikely.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
Anyone seen him anywhere on screen? is he there? If not 1 more Tory being loyal would be enough for a tie. I must say I expected the government to lose this by 20-30 standing the rebels strength this morning.Pro_Rata said:
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Yes... nothing has changed.surbiton19 said:
But Lee would not have voted with the government on Brexit issues anyway.CarlottaVance said:
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I'm not entirely sure that is true. The bookmakers seem to suggest a high chance of no deal but also think Letwin will pass.Pulpstar said:
Is it meaningless though ?Brom said:
It's a fairly meaningless vote anyway. I do expect Letwin to pass though.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?
Whoever is PM will have to abide by the decision on the 17th or pass legislation pdq to overrule it.0 -
He had already been no-confidenced by his constituency party, and so would have been deselected anyway. It seem's like they forgt the rule "better iin the tent pissing out".Brom said:0 -
Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?
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A defeat of 3 is a very best case scenario for the Gov't, the tweet has the spread as [3,35] so the expectation is the Gov't will lose by 19.DavidL said:
Anyone seen him anywhere on screen? is he there? If not 1 more Tory being loyal would be enough for a tie. I must say I expected the government to lose this by 20-30 standing the rebels strength this morning.Pro_Rata said:
635 is the maximum vote with no seats vacant (650 - 7 Sinn - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers) so O'Mara is included in that tally amongst the 12 Inds.DavidL said:
That's honestly closer than I would have expected. Can the government get the number of rebels down from 14 to 12?Danny565 said:Majority of 3 predicted for blocking "No Deal":
https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1168903909060022275
Do we know if this is making any assumption about O'Mara?0 -
Keith Simpson?Tissue_Price said:Bonus point to the first PB'er to identify the only Tory who voted against MV3 from the Remain perspective and who will (presumably) vote with the Government against the motion today.
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The bit about upholding the constitution means he's planning on refusing Queen's Consent at third reading of the BillScott_P said:0 -
Anything important happened this afternoon?
Been in a champagne bar with JohnO for the past few hours so haven’t been following the news.1 -
Is that the less successful sequel to Jeffrey Bernard Is Unwell?Byronic said:Edward Leigh is puce.
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Her behaviour is more than a little strange, considering her staunch defence of Tim Farron in the past. As far as I can see, at least Lee didn't vote against banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, as Farron did.TGOHF said:0 -
Boris doing better now, after some flailing. But it matters not.0
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Boris's not commenting on leaks is utter bluster.0
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I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.0
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Mr. Drutt, I'm not a legal beagle, but isn't refusing Royal Assent something that is not within the PM's power?0
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In a normal world...TGOHF said:Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?
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By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Dominic Raab’s face is more telling. He is funereal. As he should be.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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I wonder if the Liberal Democrats will regret Phillip Lee calling English nationalism a "disease"? Given Welsh, Scottish and Irish nationalism are all accepted as legitimate currency, it could cause a backlash in England.0
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Well he's not is he? He has a majority of zero (being generous) and 20 of his own party opposing him.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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Oh dear, what a dumb commenteek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Nothing much, apart from the government has lost its majority.TheScreamingEagles said:Anything important happened this afternoon?
Been in a champagne bar with JohnO for the past few hours so haven’t been following the news.0 -
I believe something with a fixed deadline is overtaking normal process.TheWhiteRabbit said:
In a normal world...TGOHF said:Surely the PM losing his majority means time for a GE ?
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Before I forget: welcome, Philip Thompson, to the club and congratulations on a well put-together article. Daunting, innit?0
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Caroline Lucas wants to stay in the EU and do less trade with the ROW!0
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Have you seen the demographics of the typical Brexit / UKIP voter?Brom said:
Oh dear, what a dumb commenteek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?0
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If Elphicke is included as a Tory, the Government still has a majority of 1.Gallowgate said:Government Majority 0
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Mr. Meeks, it's no surprise, really.
He wasn't up to being Foreign Secretary. He isn't up to being Prime Minister.
As an aside, I'll be afk pretty much all day tomorrow. Thankfully, nothing important or interesting shall be happening, so I won't miss much.0 -
And if O'Mara has stood down as promised, 2. Heady heights if they were reliable.justin124 said:
If Elphicke is included as a Tory, the Government still has a majority of 1.Gallowgate said:Government Majority 0
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If we don’t get a GE I’ll be really annoyed now. This parliament is done, kaput, clapped out.0
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Was it the intention of Remain inclined folk to have a referendum every five years or so anyway, as the demographic change supposedly suited them?Brom said:
Oh dear, what a dumb commenteek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
And how do they think this hilarious piece of perception goes down with people who have recently lost Leave voting parents and/or grandparents? Is it really that funny?0 -
The loss of Johnson’s majority means the DUP’s support is no longer of any political value.0
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Depends how it's framed. Current Lib Dem voters, given England's dominant place in the union, would not disagree, holding that nationalism that seeks to enhance the position of an already dominant group is, indeed, dangerous. Potential Lib Dem voters, if they are unionists, may agree if they are consistent that any stripe of nationalism in these islands is dangerous - if only to the union..Gabs2 said:I wonder if the Liberal Democrats will regret Phillip Lee calling English nationalism a "disease"? Given Welsh, Scottish and Irish nationalism are all accepted as legitimate currency, it could cause a backlash in England.
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We have had a minority Government since June 2017.not_on_fire said:
Which BoJo's administration just officially became a minority government.Scott_P said:0 -
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
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Getting Phillip Lee in exchange for Jennie Rigg is like getting Ben Stokes for Jason Roy in my viewGIN1138 said:
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On the other hand, sometimes you have to rip the wound open, cauterize the wound, remove the infection and then healing can begin. You can't always cure without causing damage.CarlottaVance said:
It can be the way to start healing.0 -
How does him resigning force an election?Black_Rook said:0 -
What a strange day and still a lot to go. Boris, a new PM looks like a drowning man. Appointing Cummings was a disaster for him personally.0
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Just an unemotional piece of data. Each year 0.5m people die in the UK. Make out what you want to.eek said:
Have you seen the demographics of the typical Brexit / UKIP voter?Brom said:
Oh dear, what a dumb commenteek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
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Just stop it. It is just as unacceptableeek said:
By 2027 a large proportion of Leave voters will have died out.Gabs2 said:
If this happens I can see Farage and his ugly ilk becoming the main party of the right and opposition to Corbyn's ministry. I wonder if this will end up with then taking us out the EU after they form a government post-Corbyn, around 2027.Byronic said:
The Corbyn Surrender Bill becomes law very shortly. That rules out No Deal. There is no acceptable “deal”. So no-Brexit is left.SouthamObserver said:
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
In fact it is unimaginable that anyone would rejoice in death of anyone1 -
Frank Field has resigned from the Labour Whip and is (from memory) planning to stand as an independent socialist at the next election. I doubt he will be in the next Parliament.DavidL said:In response to Philip's excellent piece it really has to be Hoyle doesn't it? It is long time past some dignity was restored to the role of Speaker. Will Frank Field even stand again (let alone get elected)?
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He wont need to, blackford confirms the SNP want an election so he has the votes to force oneBlack_Rook said:0 -
Aw Jess Philips just like one of us aint she guv? Aint even got a printer, has to go raaahnd the muvvah in laws0
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Mann would hardly support him on a VNOC!dyedwoolie said:In terms of confidence, boris will get the support of Mann and Austin, possibly Hoey, it depends how many Tories vote against the government.......
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To spite Corbyn he would. Ok, maybe not support but abstain? Yeah could see that to spite Corbynjustin124 said:
Mann would hardly support him on a VNOC!dyedwoolie said:In terms of confidence, boris will get the support of Mann and Austin, possibly Hoey, it depends how many Tories vote against the government.......
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Cummins will probably (rightly in my opinion) advise him to do that rather than sign the letter or some such, but Johnson I reckon likes the trappings of office too much to take such a gamble. He's set off on a path where he basically needs to constantly double down (And becoming LOTO is probably necessary and makes logical sense given his speech last night) but I'm thinking he might just sign the letter.Black_Rook said:
The Tories would rightly be crucified in such a scenario and my Baker 100-1 bet becomes very live indeed.0
