politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker
Options
Comments
-
Just saw the footage on Parliament Live at 15:35.0
-
-
-
"Dominic Cumstain's suicide note"Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
'Jeremy Corbyn's surrender bill'0 -
It feels like February 1945 to me.Byronic said:
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.Jonathan said:Feels like End of Days...
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.0 -
Soames is a perfectly able MP but doesn't need genuflecting toward simply because of his grandfather.1
-
1
-
You flopping around like a terrified windsock is the one constant in the entire process.Byronic said:
You’re both wrong. Boris and Cummings are playing a terrible hand rather well. Doing as good as could seriously be expected. Trouble is: it’s a terrible hand (as we all acknowledged when Boris took power). Almost unplayable.eek said:
They have managed to make things worse action by action since last Wednesday.DanSmith said:Is it me or have Boris and Cummings made the situation worse as the day goes on?
It’s a tragedy they weren’t in power in 2016. I think they would have delivered a decent soft Brexit. But it’s too late now.0 -
I always work backwards.bigjohnowls said:
650 elected. 1 doesn't vote (Speaker). 7 don't attend. 642 voting. 321 for a majority.
Con won 318 last election, 10 DUP.
Con loses 3 to Change UK, 1 Nick Boles, 1 to Speaker, 1 By Election loss (Brecon) and Elphick suspended.
Now lose Phillip Lee.
Officially (I know, I know) - 310 Con - 10 DUP.
Government votes now only 320.
Maximum potentially opposed 322.
The Deputy Speakers make it harder, but I believe 2 Labour and 1 Con, so nominally 319 v 320.
Government Minority (including C&S) = -1
Government Minority on all other matters = -21
0 -
Yes maybe. Does Boris have an Ardennes offensive or a V2 up his sleeve?Casino_Royale said:
It feels like February 1945 to me.Byronic said:
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.Jonathan said:Feels like End of Days...
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
If not, then you’re right. It’s 1945.0 -
I'm sure you're right. But enjoy the moment, because across the UK, there will be millions of voters who've voted Tory through thick and thin while it could accommodate Ken Clarke/Alistair Burt/Justine Greening/Philip Lee/Philip Hammond/David Gauke etc etc, but who wouldn't touch the current frontbench with someone else's.bigjohnowls said:
He is a gonner like Chukka Ryan Gapes at alPulpstar said:28,696 majority for Lee to overturn. Could be tricky.
There seems to be an astonishing amount of bunker mentality/groupthink along the Johnson-Cummings axis that they're going to romp home on the grateful thanks of previously disenfranchised Brexiteers from Mansfield and Stoke. But if they leak a similar number out the other end, or indeed Labour comes to its senses before they do and bothers to fight for the middle half of the electorate, they've had it.1 -
I think the point is that Boris's 'I will never surrender' line was a touch ironic.Pulpstar said:Soames is a perfectly able MP but doesn't need genuflecting toward simply because of his grandfather.
0 -
Happy to please.Luckyguy1983 said:
You flopping around like a terrified windsock is the one constant in the entire process.Byronic said:
You’re both wrong. Boris and Cummings are playing a terrible hand rather well. Doing as good as could seriously be expected. Trouble is: it’s a terrible hand (as we all acknowledged when Boris took power). Almost unplayable.eek said:
They have managed to make things worse action by action since last Wednesday.DanSmith said:Is it me or have Boris and Cummings made the situation worse as the day goes on?
It’s a tragedy they weren’t in power in 2016. I think they would have delivered a decent soft Brexit. But it’s too late now.0 -
-
Trumps poodle.Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
'Jeremy Corbyn's surrender bill'0 -
Official House of Commons composition page updated.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/0 -
Wrong world war. This is the 37 days leading to the Great War, when everyone could see war was inevitable, agreed they had to stop it, but no-one knew how.Casino_Royale said:
It feels like February 1945 to me.Byronic said:
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.Jonathan said:Feels like End of Days...
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.0 -
Like clockwork.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Only to 3 and his spellings worse than myynneJonathan said:
Does Jared O'Mara still count?bigjohnowls said:1 -
Corbyn said that??SandyRentool said:
"Dominic Cumstain's suicide note"Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
'Jeremy Corbyn's surrender bill'0 -
Corbyn is doing well.0
-
-
"No Deal Exit is a surrender to Trump"0
-
-
Case adjourned. Going to try to issue his decision tomorrow morning.0
-
Look at their faces. They know.Scott_P said:0 -
Um?bigjohnowls said:"No Deal Exit is a surrender to Trump"
0 -
I think they might be trying to sound as reasonable as possible to make this seem like BJ’s fault. “Letting MPs sit in October...”means completely backing down on the signature move of the opening of his premiership. He won’t do that.Danny565 said:
Like clockwork.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Second person sounds like Clark who said he would vote with the government if they guaranteed a vote on No Deal next month. Some pretty desperate briefing going on at the moment.Danny565 said:
Like clockwork.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It reversed the losses well before the gov lost its majority. What an idiot!CarlottaVance said:0 -
More passionate than against May - I suspect he genuinely dislikes Johnson unlike May who he just disagreed with.Barnesian said:Corbyn is doing well.
0 -
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.beentheredonethat said:
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.AndyJS said:Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).0 -
Mr. P, is that the moment Lee defected?0
-
I hope so, but one can never underestimate the gutlessness of the Amber Rudd wing of Tory MPs.DougSeal said:
I think they might be trying to sound as reasonable as possible to make this seem like BJ’s fault. “Letting MPs sit in October...”means completely backing down on the signature move of the opening of his premiership. He won’t do that.Danny565 said:
Like clockwork.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Lee is still a practising doctor on the side. He has risen as far as he is likely to in government, PUS for something or other iirc. He will be all right.Brom said:0 -
-
Hammond has the support of his constituency executive. That's not quite the same.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.beentheredonethat said:
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.AndyJS said:Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).1 -
True, just going to be an embarrassment, and given what we know of his ego I doubt he will take it too well. Unless of course he abandons Bracknell and stands elsewhere.DecrepitJohnL said:
Lee is still a practising doctor on the side. He has risen as far as he is likely to in government, PUS for something or other iirc. He will be all right.Brom said:0 -
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.Gallowgate said:0 -
yesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. P, is that the moment Lee defected?
0 -
Timing is everything - at some point in the next few months there will be an election so no point wasting money.Richard_Tyndall said:
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.Gallowgate said:0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.Gallowgate said:
0 -
Hammond by all accounts does not have the support of Runnymede Conservatives.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'm not. Rebel MPs come from across the spectrum of views on other matters. Hammond, for example, is a dry fiscal conservative and completely in line with his party leadership on almost all... except the biggest one at the moment.beentheredonethat said:
Interesting to see he did it on his own. Surprised a group didn’t move en bloc.AndyJS said:Are there any photos or footage of Philip Lee crossing the floor? Would be interesting to see.
Hammond and several others also have the support of their constituency parties and the feeling of loyalty is mutual (whereas Lee was VONCed and presumably thinks his constituency party and its scores of UKIP entryists can shove their VONC up their ****).0 -
-
Boris ranting a bit here...
Ok make that a lot.0 -
-
Why do you think there will be a General Election - Boris asking for one and failing to get it would serve him right at the moment.Pulpstar said:
Gov't won't mind a ruling against themselves at this point I expect as it looks likely that prorogation will be overtaken by a GE.DavidL said:Case adjourned. Going to try to issue his decision tomorrow morning.
0 -
Thank you to all the kind remarks about my debut piece.
Thank you to TSE and OGH for publishing it too and providing the platform and opportunity.1 -
Probably the best chance for Brexit now is a new deal negotiated by a Corbyn government ;-)Byronic said:
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.Jonathan said:Feels like End of Days...
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.0 -
-
Trump has become decidedly more articulate in recent weeks. He’s still wildly eccentric, but his tweets and speeches are more cogent and grammatical. Odd.TGOHF said:0 -
TM sitting next to Ken Clarke0
-
Ken Clarke nails it succinctly and elegantly.0
-
It's not rocket science.Luckyguy1983 said:
Um?bigjohnowls said:"No Deal Exit is a surrender to Trump"
We need a free trade arrangement Trump puts America first.
We accept what is offered no matter how bad.0 -
I know things have moved on pretty quickly but thanks to Philip for a very good thread leader.
One quick correction of fact: Bercow is now in his 11th year of his 9-year term. He was first elected Speaker in June 2009.0 -
Huh what a drama queen.Scott_P said:
See this is the problem.. All these MPs think they are starring in their own soap opera meanwhile the voters that put them there can go to hell.1 -
Blackford supports an election0
-
That is symbolic. Grown-ups corner.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
What did he say?CarlottaVance said:Ken Clarke nails it succinctly and elegantly.
0 -
Corbyn's tweets. The Benn bill is heading for RA so that'll be enough to convince him that "No deal" is off the table.eek said:
Why do you think there will be a General Election - Boris asking for one and failing to get it would serve him right at the moment.Pulpstar said:
Gov't won't mind a ruling against themselves at this point I expect as it looks likely that prorogation will be overtaken by a GE.DavidL said:Case adjourned. Going to try to issue his decision tomorrow morning.
0 -
It was good.Philip_Thompson said:Thank you to all the kind remarks about my debut piece.
Thank you to TSE and OGH for publishing it too and providing the platform and opportunity.0 -
Do we? We currently have a BOP surplus with America.bigjohnowls said:
It's not rocket science.Luckyguy1983 said:
Um?bigjohnowls said:"No Deal Exit is a surrender to Trump"
We need a free trade arrangement Trump puts America first.
We accept what is offered no matter how bad.0 -
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1168902925629964289Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
0 -
-
Richard_Tyndall said:
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.Gallowgate said:
Given there will be a GE anyway before any by election could be held, what would be the point in Lee resigning his seat? His constituents will have their say within weeks.Richard_Tyndall said:
At least the Eurosceptics had enough belief in democracy to stand for reelection when they defected unlike current buncb of Europhile scum.Gallowgate said:0 -
I see Boris will go groveling to Dublin next week.
Take back control aye.0 -
If only!Casino_Royale said:
Corbyn said that??SandyRentool said:
"Dominic Cumstain's suicide note"Big_G_NorthWales said:Boris
'Jeremy Corbyn's surrender bill'0 -
There has to be an election.dyedwoolie said:Blackford supports an election
This HOC is tired, weary, bad tempered, and worst of all incompetent
I am at the stage that I really am not bothered about the make up of the next HOC I just want this parliament over and done with0 -
Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
That is such bullshit.Scott_P said:0 -
The penny finally drops after several years of Tory governments negotiating deals that they can't translate into reality.Scott_P said:0 -
Oh god. Loathsome. Do they not see?????Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1168902925629964289Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
0 -
If the SNP are on board its guaranteedBig_G_NorthWales said:
There has to be an election.dyedwoolie said:Blackford supports an election
This HOC is tired, weary, bad tempered, and worst of all incompetent
I am at the stage that I really am not bothered about the make up of the next HOC I just want this parliament over and done with0 -
Perhaps Johnson is actually Donitz.Byronic said:
It is. To use a fashionable WW2 analogy, Brexit right now feels like the Axis in mid 1944. For a long while it seemed inevitable, then doubts crept in (Stalingrad), then quite suddenly it all fell apart and enemies streamed in from all angles.Jonathan said:Feels like End of Days...
It was another year in the dying but by July 44 it was doomed.
0 -
Small aside, but I happened to see that The Rise of the Hellenistic Kingdoms (336-250 BC) by Philip Matyszak came out a few days ago.
It's about 180 pages or so, which means it'll just be an overview but I rather like the author so I might give it a look. It also covers more scope than any other single volume I've seen (possibly excepting Dividing the Spoils by Robin Waterfield, although that uses the abomination of Before Common Era).0 -
Nah he still has more chance of winning a GE than another referendum, the leave-remain split in the country is still favourable to leave on a FPTP basis - certainly over a referendum.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
If Boris can get his election. I still think that the government should win this case but Mr Johnston's argument was not exactly all guns blazing.Pulpstar said:
Gov't won't mind a ruling against themselves at this point I expect as it looks likely that prorogation will be overtaken by a GE.DavidL said:Case adjourned. Going to try to issue his decision tomorrow morning.
0 -
Where is HYUFD.
Is he banned?0 -
Grandfather would have sacked his grandson in a moment.Scott_P said:
Except BoZo is trying to channel his grandfather, while sacking him..Pulpstar said:Soames is a perfectly able MP but doesn't need genuflecting toward simply because of his grandfather.
"I will surrender no ground to a lickspittle who takes his orders from Berlin". Or some such.
0 -
Is that a real photo from today - it's even better than Boris and co's photo from early.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1168902925629964289Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
0 -
But the reason that was never done was that it would split the Tory party between No Dealers and sane people.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
I am missing something here. What has happened that means brexit is now no longer likely? From where I sit, departure on 31st October still looks the most likely outcome.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.
0 -
What are you smoking? No chance anyone is calling a second ref. The Lib Dems and SNP only have about 60 MPs between them.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Surely you mean No Deal vs Remain? There isn't a deal on which to hold a referendum (other than May's, which he's torn up).Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Johnson’s knock about style not really suited for serious debates like this.0
-
Yeseek said:
Is that a real photo from today - it's even better than Boris and co's photo from early.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1168902925629964289Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
0 -
A referendum requires 6-9 months - Boris doesn't have time.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Never understood why Leavers are so against a 2nd ref. They won the last one, they can do it again.Byronic said:Wild thought: Boris should call a 2nd referendum
It’s the last chance for Brexit. Deal vs Remain. It would get the assent of the houses and might just save the Tories. I can see no other exit route for them.0 -
Is that actually their reaction to Phillip Lee's defection?eek said:
Is that a real photo from today - it's even better than Boris and co's photo from early.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1168902925629964289Big_G_NorthWales said:TM sitting next to Ken Clarke
0 -
Please, a GE to put us all out of our misery hopefully.0
This discussion has been closed.