politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Second! Like.....who the heck knows any more.....oh yes, Jo Swinson in 'Best PM ratings' (or is that 'don't Know'?)

Excellent stuff Alistair.
I’d also note that there tends to be an anomaly between the Democratic Nominee market, and the less active Nominee (both Republican and Democratic) market, and I’ve managed to get considerably better implied odds on Warren in the latter a couple of times.

Good morning, everyone.

Sad news of Hubert's death in the F2 race following F1 qualifying yesterday. RIP.

I very rarely bet on multiples, but it's interesting to consider related contingencies. I did back Harris a while ago, (26 for candidacy, 67 for presidency) as tipped by some chap called *checks notes* Mike Smithson. Interesting article, Mr. Meeks.

Incidentally, thanks to the kind words of those who left them yesterday. Mildly surprised a comparison to the Battle of Ipsus went down so well. (Mr. Rook, getting Issus and Ipsus confused, given that happened within decades of one another, involved many of the same people, and are almost identical as words, is eminently understandable).

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. We will pay our VAT with the VAT Return. Duties will be paid also like it is paid today. I do not know how small importers will be dealt with [ i.e. those not registered ] Presumably Exporters, particularly of food, may face regulatory checks but everyone knows that the regulations and standards in the UK will not suddenly change. This will help Johnson. He will go to the polls with the words "it was all project fear". I would say it would take a fair few months when we gradually become a WTO country. In fact. as the story says, in the event of a NO Deal Brexit, Ireland will not be given a pass as they cannot be. Either you have a single market or you don't. And Customs barriers, particularly for food and specially for live animals have to be set up. But a few months will pass before the hard realities of a No Deal emerges.

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

OGH Tweets:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1168040528182513665?s=20

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Osborne's austerity? IDS's universal credit debacle? Lansley's NHS fiasco?

Whatever caused them to die younger may well also be responsible for the Brexit vote, but will not be cured by Brexit, that's the tragedy of it.

CarlottaVance said:

OGH Tweets:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1168040528182513665?s=20

That's a heck of a lead and not particularly compatible with the apparent horror of an alleged coup/end of democracy as we know it/4 extra days off. Probably makes a VoNC slightly less likely, however.

On topic I have even less feel for US betting than Alastair. I have a modest bet on Trump being re-elected and that is about it. We can deceive ourselves that our various conversations with colleagues and friends here give us some insight as to what is going on here but there is no doubt that America is a foreign country and fly over America even more so.

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. We will pay our VAT with the VAT Return. Duties will be paid also like it is paid today. I do not know how small importers will be dealt with [ i.e. those not registered ] Presumably Exporters, particularly of food, may face regulatory checks but everyone knows that the regulations and standards in the UK will not suddenly change. This will help Johnson. He will go to the polls with the words "it was all project fear". I would say it would take a fair few months when we gradually become a WTO country. In fact. as the story says, in the event of a NO Deal Brexit, Ireland will not be given a pass as they cannot be. Either you have a single market or you don't. And Customs barriers, particularly for food and specially for live animals have to be set up. But a few months will pass before the hard realities of a No Deal emerges.

This is definitely a possible scenario but another is that having left without a deal we do a deal very shortly thereafter. I think that there will be concern about the Irish situation and a desire to regularise things as there will be in the Channel ports. Of course a desire and a result are not the same things, I have never even met Michelle Pfeiffer for example, but it may well be that minds will be focused and having delivered Brexit Boris will have the ability to be more flexible.

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

To be clear, we are talking about a time limited partial EU dispensation on the border in Ireland.

Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.

The sheep will be burnt.

And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.

Mr. B, understandable perspective. If true on qualifying then the race pace should be a net gain for Mercedes.

F1: pre-race ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/belgium-pre-race-2019.html

Turning to the Democrat side, there are some real oddities. Andrew Yang has fervent fans and he is this year’s heart-over-head betting sensation. He is unaccountably as short as 25 for the nomination and 38 for the presidency. The price for the presidency is especially silly – it is an implied 65% chance that if he is nominated he will win the presidency.

Yang's odds are indeed nuts. He's the greatest gift to rational punters since Ron Paul. However, he could also lose the Dem nomination but win the presidency as an independent; I think that's actually less implausible than him winning the Dem nomination. So you can't get his implied chance of winning if nominated by dividing by the Dem Nom odds.

Mexicanpete said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. We will pay our VAT with the VAT Return. Duties will be paid also like it is paid today. I do not know how small importers will be dealt with [ i.e. those not registered ] Presumably Exporters, particularly of food, may face regulatory checks but everyone knows that the regulations and standards in the UK will not suddenly change. This will help Johnson. He will go to the polls with the words "it was all project fear". I would say it would take a fair few months when we gradually become a WTO country. In fact. as the story says, in the event of a NO Deal Brexit, Ireland will not be given a pass as they cannot be. Either you have a single market or you don't. And Customs barriers, particularly for food and specially for live animals have to be set up. But a few months will pass before the hard realities of a No Deal emerges.

I would agree to a point.

If Johnson witholds the payment the EU might decide to make life difficult from their end, and the French do like a man with a clipboard.

Not to mention that UK standards will change suddenly if a US deal is pulled out of Boris's back pocket. It is not that Brexiteers like chlorinated chicken but that such a deal would rule out Britain rejoining the EU.

nichomar said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

They won’t even get on the ferry withought the right paperwork

So we get one lorryload of imports for each lorry, and then the problems start.

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

To be clear, we are talking about a time limited partial EU dispensation on the border in Ireland.

Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.

The sheep will be burnt.

And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.

I should add there are four problems for exporters to the EU in No Deal, essentially anything other than Single Market, although the first and last of these are eliminated by an FTA:

1. Tariffs. A 10% tariff on British cars makes them unprofitable. 40% on sheep meat
2. Border checks and delays. Particularly intense for fresh food.
3. Extra red tape to handle customs etc.
4. Regulation. You are only compliant if the other party says you are. Absent agreement your product is illegal in the target market.

This is formidable set of barriers. I expect exports to be substantially throttled to the EU with knock on effects to the domestic economy. No Deal isn't sustainable beyond a few weeks, I think.

Re point 2. If food lorries are delayed, soon everything will be. Such is the nature of traffic jams. Still, think of the overtime for lorry drivers, and their maximum driving times. And that leads to lost freight capacity because a lorry stuck in a customs queue for days might as well not exist.

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

To be clear, we are talking about a time limited partial EU dispensation on the border in Ireland.

Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.

The sheep will be burnt.

And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.

I should add there are four problems for exporters to the EU in No Deal, essentially anything other than Single Market, although the first and last of these are eliminated by an FTA:

1. Tariffs. A 10% tariff on British cars makes them unprofitable. 40% on sheep meat
2. Border checks and delays. Particularly intense for fresh food.
3. Extra red tape to handle customs etc.
4. Regulation. You are only compliant if the other party says you are. Absent agreement your product is illegal in the target market.

This is formidable set of barriers. I expect exports to be substantially throttled to the EU with knock on effects to the domestic economy. No Deal isn't sustainable beyond a few weeks, I think.

Re point 2. If food lorries are delayed, soon everything will be. Such is the nature of traffic jams. Still, think of the overtime for lorry drivers, and their maximum driving times. And that leads to lost freight capacity because a lorry stuck in a customs queue for days might as well not exist.

A lot of haulage firms are very lean / hand to mouth operations. They won't be able to survive more than a few weeks of delays and issues.

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Goodman: Johnson’s real plan. To get a deal – and stuff the Spartans.

Your link is broken.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/09/johnsons-real-plan-to-get-a-deal-and-stuff-the-spartans.html

Thx

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dr_spyn said:

Will the marchers have the chance to defend democracy by voting sooner rather than later?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167928278402748417

Where has the extra 4 points come from

Increased certainty to vote of Tories maybe?

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dr_spyn said:

Will the marchers have the chance to defend democracy by voting sooner rather than later?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167928278402748417

Where has the extra 4 points come from

Increased certainty to vote of Tories maybe?

No it has to have come from other parties not listed we need to see the complete breakdown.

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

To be clear, we are talking about a time limited partial EU dispensation on the border in Ireland.

Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.

The sheep will be burnt.

And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.

I should add there are four problems for exporters to the EU in No Deal, essentially anything other than Single Market, although the first and last of these are eliminated by an FTA:

1. Tariffs. A 10% tariff on British cars makes them unprofitable. 40% on sheep meat
2. Border checks and delays. Particularly intense for fresh food.
3. Extra red tape to handle customs etc.
4. Regulation. You are only compliant if the other party says you are. Absent agreement your product is illegal in the target market.

This is formidable set of barriers. I expect exports to be substantially throttled to the EU with knock on effects to the domestic economy. No Deal isn't sustainable beyond a few weeks, I think.

Re point 2. If food lorries are delayed, soon everything will be. Such is the nature of traffic jams. Still, think of the overtime for lorry drivers, and their maximum driving times. And that leads to lost freight capacity because a lorry stuck in a customs queue for days might as well not exist.

There will be some pressure on those lorries to return empty to keep the traffic flowing, I suspect.

eek said:

A lot of haulage firms are very lean / hand to mouth operations. They won't be able to survive more than a few weeks of delays and issues.

I guess the government can print money and subsidize them.

I don't think it's at all surprising that Yang is a 65% chance IF he's nominated, or that Clinton is 39% IF she is nominated.

In the unlikely event Yang is nominated, he'd have tremendous momentum - what an underdog story to come through from here and grab the nomination! He'd also presumably have demonstrated political skills to cut through a crowded field (which we've not really seen yet but would have seen if he's nominated).

In the unlikely event Clinton gets it, it would presumably be off the back of a brokered convention following a painful nomination process. That'd be a bad place for the Democrats to be.

Harris and Warren being around 50% if nominated feels about right. It wouldn't be massively surprising to see either get the nod, so neither would necessarily have massive momentum. Trump is a good campaigner, the economy will probably hold together okay (albeit he's probably made an error engineering a boom for the midterms rather than his own re-election). Biden and Sanders' slightly better odds if nominated probably reflect a belief (which sadly I suspect is correct) that owning a Y chromosome is worth a point or two at a presidential election in the US.

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

To be clear, we are talking about a time limited partial EU dispensation on the border in Ireland.

Border controls on traffic going into the EU across the Channel will be applied in full on day 1, unless something changes.

The sheep will be burnt.

And although somewhat consumed by Brexit, I have to say interesting header by Alastair about something different.

I should add there are four problems for exporters to the EU in No Deal, essentially anything other than Single Market, although the first and last of these are eliminated by an FTA:

1. Tariffs. A 10% tariff on British cars makes them unprofitable. 40% on sheep meat
2. Border checks and delays. Particularly intense for fresh food.
3. Extra red tape to handle customs etc.
4. Regulation. You are only compliant if the other party says you are. Absent agreement your product is illegal in the target market.

This is formidable set of barriers. I expect exports to be substantially throttled to the EU with knock on effects to the domestic economy. No Deal isn't sustainable beyond a few weeks, I think.

Re point 2. If food lorries are delayed, soon everything will be. Such is the nature of traffic jams. Still, think of the overtime for lorry drivers, and their maximum driving times. And that leads to lost freight capacity because a lorry stuck in a customs queue for days might as well not exist.

The lorries that won't need customs clearance, so can be fast tracked will be:

1) Those returning to the continent empty.

2) Sealed cargos from the Republic of Ireland. These are SM compatible and tariff free, merely in transit via the UK.

I wouldn't expect the queues in Dover to be too bad, as cargos without documentation will simply be refused by hauliers. They will wait in depots rather than Kentish lorry parks.

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

I never had any doubt. They just could not turn down the chance after all they have said

I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats

Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

The PM may have cunningly engineered a way to make the worst Opposition Leader in history the primary repository of both pro-EU and anti-Conservative tactical voting.

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Don't let reality destroy the No Dealers best hope of escaping.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

I never had any doubt. They just could not turn down the chance after all they have said

I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats

Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now

Just what does a Brexit Party 'top candidate" look like?

I assume the ones who are best likely to win an election probably drawn from their MEP's

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

I never had any doubt. They just could not turn down the chance after all they have said

I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats

Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now

Just what does a Brexit Party 'top candidate" look like?

TBP have selected their candidates - I suppose the tories could offer not to stand a candidate in those constituencies if they wanted to help the MP they've just fired to win the seat.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

I never had any doubt. They just could not turn down the chance after all they have said

I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats

Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now

Just what does a Brexit Party 'top candidate" look like?

Fat gobby homophobe

nichomar said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

Link / Source?

McDonnell on Ridge asked about a GE said ‘bring it on’

Not quite the same thing as committing to an election.

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

The choice is between No Dealers and everyone else.

Boris Johnson’s No Deal government has only a debatable majority in the HoC, that House in the past has voted AGAINST No Deal.

Johnson does not hold the absolute majority of opinion in the country, either.

Of course but a GONU made up of remainers is not a GONU

ThomasNashe said:

nichomar said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

I never had any doubt. They just could not turn down the chance after all they have said

I would suggest that if Boris is defeated this week by conservative mps voting against their government, those mps may well be deselected and I would expect him to call a GE, and form a pact with Farage for TBP to supply their top candidates into the deselected mps seats

Maybe nonsense but most everything is just now

Just what does a Brexit Party 'top candidate" look like?

Fat gobby homophobe

And that's just Ann Widdecombe

Ok let’s try Uber rich hedge fund manager or ex revolutionary ira supporting communist or even seven times failed parliamentary candidate

eek said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

Link / Source?

Have I missed something? Has anyone associated with the government suggested a 17th October GE?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

Link / Source?

McDonnell on Ridge asked about a GE said ‘bring it on’

Not quite the same thing as committing to an election.

It was an unequivocable bring it on and I have no doubt at all Corbyn will accept the challenge, anything else will see him destroyed by the media

I suspect (in fact I know having spoken to someone on the opposition front bench yesterday) there will be a proviso..

Benpointer said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

Looks like labour will support a motion for a GE 17th October here we come

Link / Source?

Have I missed something? Has anyone associated with the government suggested a 17th October GE?

No and McDonnell did not suggest a date

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

The BBC's forecasts have been very poor since they switched from the Met Office. A great example of how market forces don't always work for the poplulation at large.

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

Am I missing something?

From https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws

"Funding
The PWSCG is mainly funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on behalf of Government. In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority pays towards the service to underpin its services for UK and global aviation. Some research and development projects receive additional funding from other sources, including the EU. The current total PWSCG funding is approximately £83 million p.a."

It's a contract. The money is handed over in return for specific services delivered. Any increase/decrease in funding is tied to a change in services provided.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Chris said:

surbiton19 said:

StuartDickson said:

No-deal Brexit game plan: turn a blind eye at Border

One senior European Commission figure has privately acknowledged in discussions with companies that it may be necessary for authorities to "turn a blind eye" with some sectors in the weeks after a hard Brexit, with the likes of mechanics, engineers and plumbers mentioned.

A third source cautioned a no-deal Brexit would be an "emergency" whereby the legal order on the island of Ireland will change as the UK becomes a third country. They added: "Ireland is not going to be given a hospital pass. Work with the Commission is not concluded, it's ongoing."

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/nodeal-brexit-game-plan-turn-a-blind-eye-at-border-38452852.html

I always believed this is the Alexander Johnson game plan. Nothing is going to change overnight. Even the HMRC has told us that no lorries coming in to the UK from the EU will be stopped. ...

These lorries that will come into the UK without being checked - what happens when they want to go back again?

95 % of containers exported fro the ROI either go to or through the Uk. Hold up trade at Dover and the French stuff the Irish.

No, as they originate in the EU, ROI cargos do not need customs documents or approval at French ports. They can be fast tracked past any queue.

Not if we decide not to let them.

Ah - good idea! Let's blockade Irish traffic.

Tyndall diplomacy at work - thank goodness you're not in a position of power.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On a GONU how could it be supported by the public if it consists only of remainers

The choice is between No Dealers and everyone else.

Boris Johnson’s No Deal government has only a debatable majority in the HoC, that House in the past has voted AGAINST No Deal.

Johnson does not hold the absolute majority of opinion in the country, either.

Of course but a GONU made up of remainers is not a GONU

Is Corbyn a Remainer?

You are basically making Boris’s category error except in his case it is deliberate attempt to divide the country into “us” and “them”. Not sure what your excuse is.

Gardenwalker said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

The NYT visits Roger's favourite town:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/europe/uk-life-expectancy.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"It's a coastal town they forgot to close down," as Morrissey said/sang.

Hartlepool is screwed, under pretty much any economic dispensation outside full-bodied Communism, and probably even then.

It has no reason to exist anymore; and like many towns in the UK it is simply propped up via social spending to support a lumpen proletariat.

As unlikely as it sounds, It should concentrate on being a commuter resort for Newcastle, which is where real productivity may feasibly be developed.

Brexit fucks even that idea, given the outsized hit expected to the North East economy.

When I was walking around Redcar last Friday night I really was thinking after the 45 minute drive there what on earth you could do there.

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

noneoftheabove said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On top of that, rain's possible, albeit apparently unlikely (my faith in the BBC weather forecast has never been lower).

You can find the forecast the BBC are too skint/tight to pay for by using the Met Office website.

Met Office forecasts have been consistently rated better than the US forecasts (that the BBC now uses) for decades.

It is a crazy situation that the met office, which is mostly government funded, is not expected to provide the UK public with weather via the most easy to access platform, which is the BBC.

Presumably the BBC would be happy paying them whatever they are paying for the private forecasts, so the met office are effectively keeping the publicly funded data private.

Quangos gone wrong.

The Met Office get all of their funding through contracts (though many of their contracts are with government departments or quangos). If they negotiate a cut-price contract with one customer all the other customers will want the same improved deal.

In the US the system is different. The basic model forecast is funded directly and given away for free. That's why the Met Office can be undercut - its competitors aren't paying for the model output.

Before you rush to embrace the US system reflect that direct funding has led to under-funding and therefore lower quality forecasts. The Met Office has competed by providing better quality.

Am I missing something?

From https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws

"Funding
The PWSCG is mainly funded by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on behalf of Government. In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority pays towards the service to underpin its services for UK and global aviation. Some research and development projects receive additional funding from other sources, including the EU. The current total PWSCG funding is approximately £83 million p.a."

It's a contract. The money is handed over in return for specific services delivered. Any increase/decrease in funding is tied to a change in services provided.

In which case the govt should make it a requirement of those contracts that the public have easy access to met office data via either BBC or media channels with equivalent reach.