politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?
Comments
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I refer you to my earlier statementAndyJS said:
His theory is that lightning will strike twice and Labour will get a 15 point increase during the campaign for the second time in a row.Beibheirli_C said:
Of course he will. It is why I am convinced he is an idiot.AndyJS said:
I think Corbyn will certainly support an election as soon as possible, despite the fact Labour are on 25% in most polls compared to 41% last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Unless Corbyn accepts a neutral figure (as far as possible) I doubt a vonc will not happenAndyJS said:
What do MPs do who want to vote in favour of a VONC but don't want Corbyn to be a caretaker PM? Is that combination possible?nunuone said:Bring on the vote of no confidence, if you dare, Corbyn!
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1163187539823345664
However, I would not be surprised to see Boris call a GE and challenge Corbyn to support it
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If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.39898250 -
The reason quoted was shortage of ingredients at the manufacturers. Not brexit this timeBeibheirli_C said:
You are not the only one. About a million women in the UK are on HRT and they are already experiencing difficulty getting their regular medications. No one will say what the reason is.The_Taxman said:Thanks, when you are reliant on NHS medication you have little control. I have looked into this but my medication has several pharmaceutical suppliers so it is not as simple as you say. I only post on here saying the concerns I have as I sometimes feel some posters think it is only theoretical. Bumps in the road are no good to me or hundreds of thousands of other people who might suffer medical supply failure....
I wonder what large disruptive event looming could cause such a thing?0 -
Certainly. It leads to an election after 14 days. Quite what that means for Brexit is not entirely clear...AndyJS said:
What do MPs do who want to vote in favour of a VONC but don't want Corbyn to be a caretaker PM? Is that combination possible?nunuone said:Bring on the vote of no confidence, if you dare, Corbyn!
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1163187539823345664
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Serious comparisons with Venezuela are made in the case that Corbyn becomes PM, as are dire portents of civil strife should Brexit be denied.Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
I don't think the Irish Times is being at all exceptional.0 -
The article doesn't mention any of those three, the quote is here:Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
"Is it an exaggeration, sensationalist even, to speculate that Britain could become a “failed state”? Raphael Hogarth, a respected commentator, recently suggested that this would indeed happen should Johnson ignore a failed vote of no confidence and use the fixed term parliament Act to ignore parliament."
I think the likely model of decline of Brexit Britain will be more like Argentina than Somalia.0 -
Argentina didn’t have the safety valve of dissolution.Foxy said:
The article doesn't mention any of those three, the quote is here:Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
"Is it an exaggeration, sensationalist even, to speculate that Britain could become a “failed state”? Raphael Hogarth, a respected commentator, recently suggested that this would indeed happen should Johnson ignore a failed vote of no confidence and use the fixed term parliament Act to ignore parliament."
I think the likely model of decline of Brexit Britain will be more like Argentina than Somalia.0 -
There have been off and patchy drug shortages of many staples over the last few years. Part of the problem is the low prices that the NHS pays for pharmaceuticals. It is at the point that it is not economic to manufacture some.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reason quoted was shortage of ingredients at the manufacturers. Not brexit this timeBeibheirli_C said:
You are not the only one. About a million women in the UK are on HRT and they are already experiencing difficulty getting their regular medications. No one will say what the reason is.The_Taxman said:Thanks, when you are reliant on NHS medication you have little control. I have looked into this but my medication has several pharmaceutical suppliers so it is not as simple as you say. I only post on here saying the concerns I have as I sometimes feel some posters think it is only theoretical. Bumps in the road are no good to me or hundreds of thousands of other people who might suffer medical supply failure....
I wonder what large disruptive event looming could cause such a thing?0 -
I assume that's a technical term..williamglenn said:
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You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.Byronic said:For
matthiasfromhamburg
*****
The UK, its consumers, its businesses and its capital stakeholders are currently enjoying enormously favourable terms of trade with participants of the single market, just about the most favourable you could find in a global comparison.
That comes with the drawback of political, legal and financial obligations. If the UK decides to exert its sovereignty to rid itself of some or even all of these obligations then that will precipitate a deterioration of the terms of trade, that is merely a natural fact.
The extent to which this must inevitably occur, due to the fact that the new balance of benefits/obligations must fit into the already existing global matrix of balanced EU/other country trade relations, and how severe a disruption this will cause, is a fact not widely understood in the UK's public mind, neither before the referendum nor since.
When taking up his job Mr. Barnier declared that he saw it as a part of his task to instill much more clarity on that into the UK's public debate, possibly even up to the point that the UK might find it appropriate to reevaluate its decision.
That propagandists like Mr. Hannan are inclined to reinterprate this as a 'plot to keep the UK in the EU' is unsurprising but nevertheless entirely unconvincing.
The number of EU voices who see the UK remaining in the EU as a favourable thing has been severely diminished, believe me.
The fact though, that so many people are receptive to such a kind of hysterical paranoia is in itself remarkable.
*****
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.0 -
It uses the term "failed state". It is beyond ludicrous.Foxy said:
The article doesn't mention any of those three, the quote is here:Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
"Is it an exaggeration, sensationalist even, to speculate that Britain could become a “failed state”? Raphael Hogarth, a respected commentator, recently suggested that this would indeed happen should Johnson ignore a failed vote of no confidence and use the fixed term parliament Act to ignore parliament."
I think the likely model of decline of Brexit Britain will be more like Argentina than Somalia.
Definition of "failed state?" -
"According to the political theories of Max Weber, a state is defined as maintaining a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its borders. When this is broken (e.g., through the dominant presence of warlords, paramilitary groups, armed gangs, or terrorism), the very existence of the state becomes dubious, and the state becomes a failed state."
The Irish Times has been sent crazy by Brexit. I've been reading it for a while, for perspective. At its worst is it worse than the worst British Remoaner weirdo like Jolyon Maugham or Ian Dunt.
They simply don't understand the sovereignty argument, which is piquant in a country which, quite recently, had to get its budgets approved by Berlin before they were even seen by MPs in Dublin.
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I believe the odds on "next German recession" have recently shortened, quite dramatically. Of course you could have won good money on "a new far right party to get seats in the German parliament for the first time since Hitler", but that was settled when the AfD took their places in the Bundestag in 2017.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.Byronic said:For
matthiasfromhamburg
*****
The UK, i
The fact though, that so many people are receptive to such a kind of hysterical paranoia is in itself remarkable.
*****
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.0 -
Matthias - you are wasting your time on Brexiteers - for them "Sovereignty" trumps everything including reason and sense. Anyone with two braincells that function recognise what leaving a club means, but Leavers seem to live in an alternate reality where their wishes and dreams come true no matter how unreasonable.matthiasfromhamburg said:You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.0 -
Pogue Mahone.Beibheirli_C said:
Matthias - you are wasting your time on Brexiteers - for them "Sovereignty" trumps everything including reason and sense. Anyone with two braincells that function recognise what leaving a club means, but Leavers seem to live in an alternate reality where their wishes and dreams come true no matter how unreasonable.matthiasfromhamburg said:You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.0 -
The UK’s No Deal plans for Northern Ireland look a lot like renouncing sovereignty. If the state can’t enforce its own customs borders, it’s failed.Byronic said:
It uses the term "failed state". It is beyond ludicrous.Foxy said:
The article doesn't mention any of those three, the quote is here:Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
"Is it an exaggeration, sensationalist even, to speculate that Britain could become a “failed state”? Raphael Hogarth, a respected commentator, recently suggested that this would indeed happen should Johnson ignore a failed vote of no confidence and use the fixed term parliament Act to ignore parliament."
I think the likely model of decline of Brexit Britain will be more like Argentina than Somalia.
Definition of "failed state?" -
"According to the political theories of Max Weber, a state is defined as maintaining a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its borders. When this is broken (e.g., through the dominant presence of warlords, paramilitary groups, armed gangs, or terrorism), the very existence of the state becomes dubious, and the state becomes a failed state."0 -
Absolutely as someone with an Irish flag should understand. If sovereignty doesn't matter perhaps laws for Dublin should be set in London?Beibheirli_C said:Matthias - you are wasting your time on Brexiteers - for them "Sovereignty" trumps everything including reason and sense.
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The Irish prefer to be a colony of Brussels and Berlin, rather than London.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely as someone with an Irish flag should understand. If sovereignty doesn't matter perhaps laws for Dublin should be set in London?Beibheirli_C said:Matthias - you are wasting your time on Brexiteers - for them "Sovereignty" trumps everything including reason and sense.
Given their history, and their struggles for sovereignty from Britain, I entirely understand the choice. Even if their willing submission, now, is rather unpoetic.
What is bonkers is their inability to see how a 1916-style desire for "sovereignty", emotionally superior to any economic considerations, drives much of the Leaver vote.0 -
... in which case her 3 words are stop.credit.cardsFoxy said:
It is a great system for emergency services, but also useful for finding Mrs Foxy when she wanders off in the shops!Gallowgate said:Has anyone seen this new ‘what3words’ thing which is like post codes for the 21st Century? The whole world is split up into 3mx3m grid with 3 unique words for each one. It’s very interesting. 10 Downing Street is drum.larger.occupy ...
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Thank you very much for your sincerely felt concerns about the economic and political stability of Germany, but what exactly does that have to do with the consequences of Brexit?Byronic said:
I believe the odds on "next German recession" have recently shortened, quite dramatically. Of course you could have won good money on "a new far right party to get seats in the German parliament for the first time since Hitler", but that was settled when the AfD took their places in the Bundestag in 2017.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.Byronic said:For
matthiasfromhamburg
*****
The UK, i
The fact though, that so many people are receptive to such a kind of hysterical paranoia is in itself remarkable.
*****
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.
I'm somewhat at a loss here.0 -
You have a nice dry sense of British humour. Most unGerman. Wilkommen.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Thank you very much for your sincerely felt concerns about the economic and political stability of Germany, but what exactly does that have to do with the consequences of Brexit?Byronic said:
I believe the odds on "next German recession" have recently shortened, quite dramatically. Of course you could have won good money on "a new far right party to get seats in the German parliament for the first time since Hitler", but that was settled when the AfD took their places in the Bundestag in 2017.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.Byronic said:For
matthiasfromhamburg
*****
The UK, i
The fact though, that so many people are receptive to such a kind of hysterical paranoia is in itself remarkable.
*****
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.
I'm somewhat at a loss here.0 -
And much the same level he began the 2017 election. The Tories, hiwever, are much lower.AndyJS said:
I think Corbyn will certainly support an election as soon as possible, despite the fact Labour are on 25% in most polls compared to 41% last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Unless Corbyn accepts a neutral figure (as far as possible) I doubt a vonc will not happenAndyJS said:
What do MPs do who want to vote in favour of a VONC but don't want Corbyn to be a caretaker PM? Is that combination possible?nunuone said:Bring on the vote of no confidence, if you dare, Corbyn!
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1163187539823345664
However, I would not be surprised to see Boris call a GE and challenge Corbyn to support it0 -
Apparently the fieldwork for the BMG poll was 6th - 9th August.0
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Come on. The Corbyn programme for the last election was mainstream European Left. The Tories under Boris are now nicking parts of it it was that extreme.OblitusSumMe said:
Serious comparisons with Venezuela are made in the case that Corbyn becomes PM, as are dire portents of civil strife should Brexit be denied.Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
I don't think the Irish Times is being at all exceptional.0 -
And Everton by Friday night! That'll please @TSE!surbiton19 said:
United could be top of the league this time tomorrow !Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very good and thanks for Maquire. United and Englands next captainFoxy said:
We were poor to start (something that we have a tendency to) but after the first 20 min were far more threatening. Fans are already making Soyonucu a favorite*. I think Chelsea started at an unsustainable pace, particularly having played extra time midweek. If Lampard loses at Carrow road next week, the fans will get restive.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leicester should have won today Dr FoxyFoxy said:
They went up during the Barber boom, otherwise failed to keep pace with inflation, so depreciated in real terms. Equities much the same.viewcode said:
Look at the history of the 1970s. Recession? Yes. Public order problems, wildcat strikes? Yes. IMF loans? Yes. What happened to house prices? They went up.Foxy said:
Both house and equity prices are likely to go down in a recession, so not very safe advice.viewcode said:
Remortgage and buy property. Holding liquid Sterling is stupid when the currency is falling and/or inflation increasing. Get into debt and let inflation eat away at the loan repayments. If you can buy non-sterling denominated assets, so much the better. I think transferring liquidity into shares might also be a good idea, as the value of the shares and dividends will rise as sterling falls/inflation rises.Gallowgate said:@rcs1000, what does one need to do to mitigate the effects of the 'rebalancing' of the UK economy you keep alluding to. Pay off as much of mortgage as possible? Large savings in Sterling?
Of course, this might be total bollocks and I might be totally wrong: it's hardly unprecedented. DYOR on this and consult widely.
Lamps is struggling
*getting £80 million for our third best centreback is looking very good business! See Soyonucu taking the Mickey below. The joke is because he resembles Lord Farquad in Shrek:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1163168900286242816?s=190 -
Clearly potential disruption to nearly 100bn of exports to the UK from Germany is nothing to do with the health of the German economy ... :-)matthiasfromhamburg said:
Thank you very much for your sincerely felt concerns about the economic and political stability of Germany, but what exactly does that have to do with the consequences of Brexit?Byronic said:
I believe the odds on "next German recession" have recently shortened, quite dramatically. Of course you could have won good money on "a new far right party to get seats in the German parliament for the first time since Hitler", but that was settled when the AfD took their places in the Bundestag in 2017.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You are in a club where the only way of leaving means forfeiting the benefits (and detriments) of club membership, like any other club, ever.Byronic said:For
matthiasfromhamburg
*****
The UK, i
The fact though, that so many people are receptive to such a kind of hysterical paranoia is in itself remarkable.
*****
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That is not "a beating" but a perfectly natural consequence.
Every club member is free to evaluate the balance of membership benefits/obligations and eventually leave the club if this balance seems unfavourable.
The way to make Brexit a success is to demonstrate that the benefits of non-membership outweigh the benefits of membership. I'm sure you will do your very best, perhaps others might follow then.
Regarding betting: is there a market yet for next EU member to leave and when?
Should be interesting.
I'm somewhat at a loss here.
If the EU is the type of club where the natural consequences of exercising a right to leave by democratic decision are "taking a beating", then that is one more reason why we need to be out.0 -
Corbyn is an extremist. There is no two ways about it.dixiedean said:
Come on. The Corbyn programme for the last election was mainstream European Left. The Tories under Boris are now nicking parts of it it was that extreme.OblitusSumMe said:
Serious comparisons with Venezuela are made in the case that Corbyn becomes PM, as are dire portents of civil strife should Brexit be denied.Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
I don't think the Irish Times is being at all exceptional.
Just because Europe elects crazy communists doesn't mean we have to as well.0 -
I don't know why idiots like him cant see there is a difference between a Turkish business buying a British business and millions of Turks having the right to migrate and work here with no controls. Most people really don't know the meaning of the word irony.ReggieCide said:
"Turkey are"? Is there more than one of it? Christ!!!!not_on_fire said:0 -
The E.U is not a nation.Benpointer said:
The EU is not facing a moment of national crisis.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Remind me. Isn't the EU on holiday or have I missed somethingScott_P said:
(No matter how much it wishes it was).0 -
So I take it you are vehemently opposed to extra Police, a public sector pay rise, energy price caps, and LNER then?nunuone said:
Corbyn is an extremist. There is no two ways about it.dixiedean said:
Come on. The Corbyn programme for the last election was mainstream European Left. The Tories under Boris are now nicking parts of it it was that extreme.OblitusSumMe said:
Serious comparisons with Venezuela are made in the case that Corbyn becomes PM, as are dire portents of civil strife should Brexit be denied.Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
I don't think the Irish Times is being at all exceptional.
Just because Europe elects crazy communists doesn't mean we have to as well.
So long as you don't vote Tory on principle that will be a win.0 -
Bought a Sunday Times today, and the end-of-the-world report is full of "mights" and "maybes" and "could happen" and all the same kind of stuff as all the doom-predictions that totally failed to happen at time round. And I have checked that pre-referendum the international organisations were saying that the £ was 15% too high.
eg the ST has translated 'Up to 282 trawlers may be in British waters' to '282 trawlers will be in UK waters on day one". That depends whether they obey the rules or not, and it is Day Two that counts. Perhaps once a dozen French trawlers are tied up in Portsmouth for a couple of months whilst it is resolved they will be sensible.
Dealing with remain campaigners / propagandists logic and reason just bounce off. Apparently all the Type I diabetics such as myself are going to die because of use by dates and supplies. Well - we went round that one last summer, and the manufacturers and others made clear that supplies would not be allowed to run out. Scaremongers still seem to have their zombie heads on; some are diabetics scaring themselves needlessly, which is sad.
Use by dates for the insulin I collected this week are late 2020 or late 2021. The supply for the entire country would fit in a couple of small aircraft a month.
The current government have is right - the drawn out process is much of the problem; it is time to shoot the stalking horse and cut through the trolling - this just needs to be done.0 -
Cameron announced the date of the referendum on 22nd February 2016. On that day GBP was worth 1.281 EUR[1] and 1.4183 USD[2]. 15% of those values is 1.0885 EUR and 1.2055 USD, which is about where we are now. No doubt if it falls further you will complain it's undervalued...MattW said:And I have checked that pre-referendum the international organisations were saying that the £ was 15% too high....
Dealing with remain campaigners / propagandists logic and reason just bounce off. Apparently all the Type I diabetics such as myself are going to die because of use by dates and supplies. Well - we went round that one last summer, and the manufacturers and others made clear that supplies would not be allowed to run out...Use by dates for the insulin I collected this week are late 2020 or late 2021. The supply for the entire country would fit in a couple of small aircraft a month.
As for the insulin supply, I agree with you. It was me who looked up the cargo capacity of RAF cargo aircraft, me who worked out how much space diabetic medication takes up, me who worked out how many flights the RAF could fly in in a day, me who worked out how much medication would be required per day, then it was me who pointed out that yes, we did have enough capacity to do that. So your remark about "logic and reason just bounce off" was unwarranted and undeserved.
[1] https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-02-22
[2] https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-02-220 -
Pritti was quoted as saying she wanted to "end free movement" (quite possibly confusing FoM with Visa Free travel) - so us stamping EU Passports would be one way to control it. Thanks for the idea, EU!williamglenn said:0 -
Quite hilarious hyperbole. Do you have the faintest idea what causes EM currency crises? Or the ERM crisis? Thanks to Soros, the UK issues bonds in its own currency and isn’t wasting national treasure keeping the snake in the tunnel.OnlyLivingBoy said:
If the UK gets embroiled in an EM style currency crisis there might be serious hikes. Nobody ever defended their currency by hiking 25bp.JBriskinindyref2 said:
A hike nowadays is 0.25 - As I previously posted, for this reason, bets on this market should be limited to 0.25 to 1.25OnlyLivingBoy said:
It is unlikely but certainly not no chance. I think the most likely values are 75bp, 10bp and 25bp. But in a no deal, GBP crash scenario the BoE could end up hiking rates to defend the currency. They certainly see that as a possibility themselves.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Value betting blah blah blah blah - change the odds into percentage chances blah blah blah - Yes I know how betting works.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't think 2% or higher is likely, just that it may be marginally more likely than is priced and therefore is value. You do know how betting works, right?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Lordy - another 2pc or higher fan. Are you a Citeh boy or something ?OnlyLivingBoy said:One of the most likely numbers is missing: 0.1%. The Bank will not cut all the way to zero but they now believe that the effective lower bound is below 0.25%, and I think around 0.1% is where they see it. In my view there is value at 0.75% (if we avoid no deal or if the Bank waits a few months before acting) and also at 2% or above (in case we enter a full on currency crisis, unlikely but maybe not as unlikely as priced). Laying 0% would also be profitable, for the reason given above.
And yes, I do work in finance.
And there's absolutely no chance of 2pc interest rates this year.
Rates would only fly up upon the expectation of sustained inflation. Not because of a one time adjustment to the terms of trade from an Fx deval, which should on balance help Uk economic prospects on the eve of a global currency war.
Market participants are strangely enough fully aware that Brexit is a thing that might happen. Take a look at the back end of the UK yield curve relative to the front and explain again where your fear of sterling hyper inflation comes from.0 -
Do you agree that the Electoral Commission should review any future SindyRef question?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/11632136350255390720 -
Boris is already hiring extra police.dixiedean said:
So I take it you are vehemently opposed to extra Police, a public sector pay rise, energy price caps, and LNER then?nunuone said:
Corbyn is an extremist. There is no two ways about it.dixiedean said:
Come on. The Corbyn programme for the last election was mainstream European Left. The Tories under Boris are now nicking parts of it it was that extreme.OblitusSumMe said:
Serious comparisons with Venezuela are made in the case that Corbyn becomes PM, as are dire portents of civil strife should Brexit be denied.Byronic said:If anyone is under the mistaken impression that obsessive Brexit hysteria is a peculiarly British thing, I give you the Irish Times today.
Brexit will turn Britain into a "failed state". Like, uh, Somalia. Syria. Or Haiti on a bad hair day. No, really. That's what the Irish Times thinks.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-uk-facing-a-future-as-a-failed-state-after-brexit-1.3989825
I don't think the Irish Times is being at all exceptional.
Just because Europe elects crazy communists doesn't mean we have to as well.
So long as you don't vote Tory on principle that will be a win.
I am opposed to nationalisation, rent capping etc
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"Suicide bomber brexit".Byronic said:
I've never believed the EU was or is bluffing. All the logic on their side is to push for a punishing Brexit, to keep the EU project on the road, and less enthusiastic members in line.Theuniondivvie said:
Isn't belief in the whole 'evil EU was always intent on an autres encouraging reaming of the UK' schtick somewhat at odds with thinking the EU is/was bluffing?Byronic said:
It's not paranoia. Barnier was just being honest, possibly too honest, as the EU Commission has since claimed the quote was "misinterpreted", or "taken out of context".
The fact is, the EU has to make Brexit as painful and punitive as possible, pour decourager les autres. If Brexit is a success, others will follow.
So we are in a club where the only way of leaving is to take a beating? This, presumably, is why support for joining the EU, in Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, is at record lows.
The EU has its good points, but it is basically a pile of shit.
That said, when faced with a crazed UK intent on doing suicide bomber Brexit, is it possible they will blink at the last moment?
Yes. Possibly.
There is no way you are not SeanT0
