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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa
Betdata.io chart of past three months on Betfair Exchange
Comments
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First like Pocahontas.1
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Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view0
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FPT: I wish we had a government with some sense of direction. We’ve been rudderless for three years now.
https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1162291220292526080?s=210 -
Fourth like Labour0
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Seems like it would take a lot of work frankly. And reminiscent of how Tories enjoy babies - on a bun, preferably with ketchup.ydoethur said:
There is graffiti on the A38 passing Quedgeley which invites people to 'bun the Tories.'kle4 said:Weirdest graffiti I've seen is quite recent- lots of messages saying 'help others'.
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Only seen on tv, she looks pretty good, has some measure of gravitas. But with american races it seems near everyone gets their moment some I'll wait.0
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The online caucus scares me, at least for betting purposes. It would seem to massively lower the barrier to participation.0
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When we were kids (mid-late 80s) there was some bizarre graffiti in Nelson, South Wales, which stayed there for years, next to the famous handball court. It has become more bizarre in latter years given what's transpired since. It read "ROLF HARRIS IS A C*NT".kle4 said:
Seems like it would take a lot of work frankly. And reminiscent of how Tories enjoy babies - on a bun, preferably with ketchup.ydoethur said:
There is graffiti on the A38 passing Quedgeley which invites people to 'bun the Tories.'kle4 said:Weirdest graffiti I've seen is quite recent- lots of messages saying 'help others'.
I have no explanation.0 -
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The Tories already have ample sauce.kle4 said:
Seems like it would take a lot of work frankly. And reminiscent of how Tories enjoy babies - on a bun, preferably with ketchup.ydoethur said:
There is graffiti on the A38 passing Quedgeley which invites people to 'bun the Tories.'kle4 said:Weirdest graffiti I've seen is quite recent- lots of messages saying 'help others'.
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There is at least one Ross Thomson parody twitter account out there. This isn't it.
https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1161987978555789315?s=200 -
Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.0 -
Allowing British Steel to be private, absolutely she may have.Gardenwalker said:FPT: I wish we had a government with some sense of direction. We’ve been rudderless for three years now.
https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1162291220292526080?s=21
6.5% interest on student loans is ludicrous and unjustifiable though.0 -
I think Trump has a great chance against Warren if it comes to it in the General and have shaped my book to reflect that compared to the old men in the race.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.0 -
I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS0 -
Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?0
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A tie in the Electoral college looks prima facie plausible this time round : https://www.270towin.com/maps/lwQnE
Pennsylvania and Arizona look like the key stats to me.0 -
Harman and Clarke is a dream ticket.
Of course they can’t be seen to be openly touting for the role...0 -
Well, it's hard to imagine you could do a much worse job than Jason Roy is doing.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS0 -
In this great big mess some preposterous things might well end up happening. That one probably not, but it's not as crazy as it should be.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS0 -
National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)0 -
Will the UK parliament be officially prorogued in 2019?
Yes 10/3
No 2/15
(smarkets)0 -
FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Why is it crazy?kle4 said:
In this great big mess some preposterous things might well end up happening. That one probably not, but it's not as crazy as it should be.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
Clarke has been touted as a GONU PM for several years now.0 -
Aside from the 12% overround does 49.5 hertz hold some special significance in power generation ?StuartDickson said:National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)0 -
EC tie is well possible this time : https://www.270towin.com/maps/lwQnE0
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Over what timeframe?StuartDickson said:National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)
IIRC the frequency wobbles quite a bit as the load varies, and the requirement is only that it averages 50Hz over some period like 24 hours0 -
You think? I have had 4 fifties this year so maybe...kle4 said:
In this great big mess some preposterous things might well end up happening. That one probably not, but it's not as crazy as it should be.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS0 -
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
They promise to deliver 50 hertz. Apparently they are struggling to fulfil.Pulpstar said:
Aside from the 12% overround does 49.5 hertz hold some special significance in power generation ?StuartDickson said:National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)0 -
But remain deeply unpalatable.ydoethur said:
The Tories already have ample sauce.kle4 said:
Seems like it would take a lot of work frankly. And reminiscent of how Tories enjoy babies - on a bun, preferably with ketchup.ydoethur said:
There is graffiti on the A38 passing Quedgeley which invites people to 'bun the Tories.'kle4 said:Weirdest graffiti I've seen is quite recent- lots of messages saying 'help others'.
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Completely agree. May's (and Hammond's government) was a disaster. If they hadn't done so much on Brexit they would have done nothing of note at all.Gardenwalker said:FPT: I wish we had a government with some sense of direction. We’ve been rudderless for three years now.
https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1162291220292526080?s=210 -
anything below 50 can give issues on lots of kit if you don't have smoothingPulpstar said:
Aside from the 12% overround does 49.5 hertz hold some special significance in power generation ?StuartDickson said:National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)0 -
Crazy only in the sense that MPs have failed to make a decision and therefore that a GONU even needs to be contemplated at this very late stage.Gardenwalker said:
Why is it crazy?kle4 said:
In this great big mess some preposterous things might well end up happening. That one probably not, but it's not as crazy as it should be.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
Clarke has been touted as a GONU PM for several years now.0 -
New market: next GE - Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Lab Maj Neil Coyle MP 12,972)
LD 5/6
Lab 5/6
Con 100/1
(Shadsy)
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It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
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They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
StuartDickson said:
They promise to deliver 50 hertz. Apparently they are struggling to fulfil.
The spot frequency varies all the time.malcolmg said:anything below 50 can give issues on lots of kit if you don't have smoothing
In theory if they are slow during heavy load, they can wind it up off-peak.
The issue with that theory assumes the generation is still running off-peak (like nuclear, not solar)0 -
Grid frequency is a pretty good proxy for the balance between generated supply and demand - a drop in frequency indicating an excess of demand over supply.Pulpstar said:
Aside from the 12% overround does 49.5 hertz hold some special significance in power generation ?StuartDickson said:National Grid to produce less than 49.5 hertz
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)
The automatic cutout systems, designed to prevent wholesale blackouts, are therefore designed to respond to big drops in frequency.0 -
New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)0 -
Whatever you think about Harris or Warren, I think we can all agree its great to have 2 BAME candidates right up there.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.1 -
You think that the money that the Scottish government would have had to put up is anything like what they are going to end up spending now? And what exactly are we going to do with this ship yard once the ferries are built?malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Warren led in a recent Wisconsin poll.surbiton19 said:
It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
Such VP theorising is premature.0 -
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc
0 -
maaarsh said:
Whatever you think about Harris or Warren, I think we can all agree its great to have 2 BAME candidates right up there.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.
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WE need plenty more ferries in short term and will need small navy ships in longer termDavidL said:
You think that the money that the Scottish government would have had to put up is anything like what they are going to end up spending now? And what exactly are we going to do with this ship yard once the ferries are built?malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
The yard will be needed to build the new Vital Spark for the Independent Navy...DavidL said:You think that the money that the Scottish government would have had to put up is anything like what they are going to end up spending now? And what exactly are we going to do with this ship yard once the ferries are built?
0 -
Trump being one of those.Pulpstar said:
I think Trump has a great chance against Warren if it comes to it in the General and have shaped my book to reflect that compared to the old men in the race.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.
And I think he'd struggle against her, having already shot his bolt and failed to kill off her political career.0 -
The last Harriet to be Prime Minister led the country into a new golden age after taking the job in an emergency situation.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
A good omen?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Jones0 -
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Ah yes Sherrod Brown ! That's a collective twenty quid or so the pb.com cocktail fund in't getting back.surbiton19 said:
It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
0 -
Harperson would be a disaster.OblitusSumMe said:
The last Harriet to be Prime Minister led the country into a new golden age after taking the job in an emergency situation.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
A good omen?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Jones0 -
Sure it will leak less than UK carriers and be quieter than Type 45's for sure.Scott_P said:
The yard will be needed to build the new Vital Spark for the Independent Navy...DavidL said:You think that the money that the Scottish government would have had to put up is anything like what they are going to end up spending now? And what exactly are we going to do with this ship yard once the ferries are built?
0 -
Yes - zero queues and none of the hideous crowds one faces at Edinburgh or even Inverness.malcolmg said:
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Great for departures and has its own station , no need for taxis, buses or other such crap, and it never closes with weather.TGOHF said:
Yes - zero queues and none of the hideous crowds one faces at Edinburgh or even Inverness.malcolmg said:
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Hmm dunno, her head to head polling looks weakish to me for quite a well known Democrat figure. I'll take an outsize nomination win then have an underwater presidential book if its her anyway.Nigelb said:
Trump being one of those.Pulpstar said:
I think Trump has a great chance against Warren if it comes to it in the General and have shaped my book to reflect that compared to the old men in the race.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.
And I think he'd struggle against her, having already shot his bolt and failed to kill off her political career.0 -
The Lib Dem price there looks a steal.StuartDickson said:New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)0 -
Why when all she has to do is seek an extension and call an election?SquareRoot said:
Harperson would be a disaster.OblitusSumMe said:
The last Harriet to be Prime Minister led the country into a new golden age after taking the job in an emergency situation.JonCisBack said:I see Harman and Clarke are "open" to leading a caretaker government.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
A good omen?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Jones0 -
Humiliations of Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard show Scottish unionists are expendable
Alliance with Scotland was necessary back then for security as the Empire was being forged. It’s not in the new globalised world they now seek to operate in, under the wing, if not the vassalage, of the USA. Despite the warnings of party grandees of both left and right, the Union’s falling apart and they just don’t care. They neither have strategic interest in, nor sentiment for, their unionist allies.
Rather than growing in stature with devolution, the Scottish wings of English parties have shrunk in influence. Even establishing separate Scottish parties won’t be enough to save them. For it’s the interests of England that now matter and that set the agenda.
Scottish outliers and representatives will be as irrelevant and expendable as once were the Irish Ascendancy and the American Loyalists. They’ve not yet been abandoned, but it’s certainly been made clear who’ll decide upon their fate. And it won’t be for them to choose their destiny.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/kenny-macaskill-humiliations-of-ruth-davidson-and-richard-leonard-show-unionists-are-expendable-1-49835220 -
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris0 -
The market is totally irrational. Harris being at 3.5 and Biden at 7.8 a few weeks ago was just sillyPulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.0 -
This is Elizabeth Warren's famous "beer with my husband" video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWehvtOL_VI0 -
You should know by now that HYUFD only pays attention to those polls that agree with his meme.Nigelb said:
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris
0 -
Thatcher never privatised ANYTHING between 1979 and 1990. NO sirree!Gardenwalker said:FPT: I wish we had a government with some sense of direction. We’ve been rudderless for three years now.
https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1162291220292526080?s=210 -
I must say I’m surprised it’s so long. There is a huge (13,137) Labour vote to eat into, plus nearly 1000 Green votes. The Tories look screwed here.AlastairMeeks said:
The Lib Dem price there looks a steal.StuartDickson said:New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)
(On paper. I have zero local knowledge.)0 -
Biden has a 12 pt lead in the same polling that Warren has a 6 pt lead ? Once you've added in the west coast bias and a bit of polling error, 6 pts is no lead at all really. And this is one of Warren's stronger H2H polls - she's been even or just a couple ahead of Trump in previous which is a Trump EC win.Nigelb said:
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris0 -
Inverness Airport was pretty quiet back in July.TGOHF said:
Yes - zero queues and none of the hideous crowds one faces at Edinburgh or even Inverness.malcolmg said:
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
I thought the Lib Dems believe they are the alternative government. They are just tying with the Tories in St.Albans ?AlastairMeeks said:
The Lib Dem price there looks a steal.StuartDickson said:New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)1 -
A question for Labour supporters. If there is a voncin Boris, followed by a vonc in Corbyn (with LDs voncing him), should Corbyn vote against Harriet Harman who is proposing the same "extend a50 then call election" programme as he did?
What's his excuse to vote against her in this case? With the knowledge that Boris will remain PM in the upcoming GE surely he should support Harman even if he is bitter about being rejected?
I think he can get away with voncing a Tory, even Ken Clarke, but I don't see how he justifies voncing Harman once he has lost his own vote. What will be his excuse to vonc Harman without losing his own credibility?
It's advantage Swinson simply because her "test" comes first, and what she does puts the ball in Corbyns court.0 -
I don't know about nowadays but any spikes used to cause issues with mainframes etc back in the days when I was an engineer. They would only tolerate a small movement.Scott_P said:StuartDickson said:They promise to deliver 50 hertz. Apparently they are struggling to fulfil.
The spot frequency varies all the time.malcolmg said:anything below 50 can give issues on lots of kit if you don't have smoothing
In theory if they are slow during heavy load, they can wind it up off-peak.
The issue with that theory assumes the generation is still running off-peak (like nuclear, not solar)0 -
HY can even quote a poll as support, and then when another PBer cites different stats from the exact same poll, he calls it “rubbish”.surbiton19 said:
You should know by now that HYUFD only pays attention to those polls that agree with his meme.Nigelb said:
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris
You rarely get folk so blind to their own in-built bias.1 -
I'd say lay anyone at implied probability over 30% (which isn't Warren yet, but may be very soon).
It remains a big field, and there are too many twists to come in this. Someone will have a "moment" in the September debates. Someone will have an Autumn scandal. Someone will outperform expectations in Iowa. And so on, and so on.
That's not to say one of the front-runners won't win... they probably will. But there is money to be made on the roller-coaster on the way there... if Warren does come through, say, she'll very probably have periods when she's well under 30%.0 -
Surely that's why Alastair is saying they are a steal at that price?surbiton19 said:
I thought the Lib Dems believe they are the alternative government. They are just tying with the Tories in St.Albans ?AlastairMeeks said:
The Lib Dem price there looks a steal.StuartDickson said:New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)1 -
Prestwick has 3 flights a day.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Inverness Airport was pretty quiet back in July.TGOHF said:
Yes - zero queues and none of the hideous crowds one faces at Edinburgh or even Inverness.malcolmg said:
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
0
-
I'd dispute your second paragraph. It's not at all rare to get folk that blind to their own biases - it's commonplace.StuartDickson said:
HY can even quote a poll as support, and then when another PBer cites different stats from the exact same poll, he calls it “rubbish”.surbiton19 said:
You should know by now that HYUFD only pays attention to those polls that agree with his meme.Nigelb said:
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris
You rarely get folk so blind to their own in-built bias.0 -
Such theorizing is premature is a PB motto.Nigelb said:
Warren led in a recent Wisconsin poll.surbiton19 said:
It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
Such VP theorising is premature.0 -
I don’t comment on US politics.
Except to say, Warren all the way.
Biden is too deluded. Harris is too robot. Buttigieg is too green. Sanders is too Sanders.
Sure Warren has negatives.
But it feels we all need a Warren in the White House right now.1 -
It certainly was !Stereotomy said:
The market is totally irrational. Harris being at 3.5 and Biden at 7.8 a few weeks ago was just sillyPulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't Kamala Harris the great white hope only a few weeks back ?
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.
No, the Lib Dems are likely miles ahead there.surbiton19 said:
I thought the Lib Dems believe they are the alternative government. They are just tying with the Tories in St.Albans ?AlastairMeeks said:
The Lib Dem price there looks a steal.StuartDickson said:New market: next GE - St Albans (Con Maj Anne Main MP 6,109)
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)
"Trading team" is having a good think about my £50 on the Lib Dems there. Allowed £30.0 -
Just winding HY up - I don't put a great deal of importance in the general election polling at this stage.Pulpstar said:
Biden has a 12 pt lead in the same polling that Warren has a 6 pt lead ? Once you've added in the west coast bias and a bit of polling error, 6 pts is no lead at all really. And this is one of Warren's stronger H2H polls - she's been even or just a couple ahead of Trump in previous which is a Trump EC win.Nigelb said:
Fox News says you are wrong....HYUFD said:Looks like Warren for the Democratic nomination but Trump for re election in my view
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris
This was quite an interesting observation, though.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/elizabeth-warrens-populism-for-professionals
Warren is the only candidate in the race whose fortunes have materially improved over the past six months, which suggests that the vein she’s found has less to do with what is permanent within the Democratic electorate than with what is changing. When Rakich analyzed polling data from Emerson College last month, he found that Warren, alone among the major contenders, drew support from voters who were split almost evenly between Sanders and Clinton in 2016...
If she can display the odd bit of skepticism towards the left of the party in order to reassure the centre, I think she'd be in with a very good chance.0 -
Repair the defects?DavidL said:
You think that the money that the Scottish government would have had to put up is anything like what they are going to end up spending now? And what exactly are we going to do with this ship yard once the ferries are built?malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
Well, 'Who dares, wins' doesn't have the greatest track record in politics...kle4 said:
Such theorizing is premature is a PB motto.Nigelb said:
Warren led in a recent Wisconsin poll.surbiton19 said:
It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
Such VP theorising is premature.0 -
You expect Cal Mac to bear all the financial costs and risks until this complex contractual dispute is resolved? - sounds most unlawyer-like.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
If a person makes enough predictions then at least one will stick. Guess which one will be brought up as evidence of excellent judgement.....Nigelb said:
Well, 'Who dares, wins' doesn't have the greatest track record in politics...kle4 said:
Such theorizing is premature is a PB motto.Nigelb said:
Warren led in a recent Wisconsin poll.surbiton19 said:
It has to be from the Rust Belt. PA, WI, MI, OH. Sen. Sherrod Brown ?kinabalu said:Warren does look a formidable candidate. Wonder who her running mate will be if she gets it?
Such VP theorising is premature.0 -
I think that if Johnson and Corbyn are VONC'd we should indeed endorse a limited mandate for Harman, but I think she'd be VONC'd too (more Tory support, but less Labour Leaver support). It is possible that we have a problem without a solution here, just as Johnson and Cummings hope.Paristonda said:A question for Labour supporters. If there is a voncin Boris, followed by a vonc in Corbyn (with LDs voncing him), should Corbyn vote against Harriet Harman who is proposing the same "extend a50 then call election" programme as he did?
What's his excuse to vote against her in this case? With the knowledge that Boris will remain PM in the upcoming GE surely he should support Harman even if he is bitter about being rejected?
I think he can get away with voncing a Tory, even Ken Clarke, but I don't see how he justifies voncing Harman once he has lost his own vote. What will be his excuse to vonc Harman without losing his own credibility?
It's advantage Swinson simply because her "test" comes first, and what she does puts the ball in Corbyns court.
But for an alternative to work, a good starting point is that we don't all rubbish each others' prospects before they're even tried, in the hope that people will then rally behind our preferred alternative. The weakness of Swinson's position is that she vacillates between implying that she'd be up for a Corbyn caretaker government on the right conditions (but "sadly" thinks it won't work) or she'd be against it (even if it would work). My impression is that she thinks the latter, which is why it's what first came out, but has been advised that she needs to pretend the former.
The LibDem and Green leaders in my patch have written with me jointly to the Guardian to urge consideration of Corbyn's proposals without preconditions. Give it an honest try; if it doesn't work, then we'll look at alternatives and see if they might.0 -
-
Which one would be Prime and which one Minister?Gardenwalker said:Harman and Clarke is a dream ticket.
Of course they can’t be seen to be openly touting for the role...0 -
There is no constitutional impediment to a duumvirate.felix said:
Which one would be Prime and which one Minister?Gardenwalker said:Harman and Clarke is a dream ticket.
Of course they can’t be seen to be openly touting for the role...0 -
It IS premature but something about that photo the other day - Kamala hugging the Professor so tightly - the first thing it said to me was Mother/Daughter and from this it is no great stretch to arrive at what it is most definitely far too early to be speculating about.Nigelb said:Warren led in a recent Wisconsin poll.
Such VP theorising is premature.
Trump/Pence vs Warren/Harris.
That would be awesome. Movie material even. Casting writes itself -
Donald Trump - Danny Devito
Mike Pence - Denzil Washington
Elizabeth Warren - Dame Maggie Smith
Kamala Harris - Beyonce0 -
One less u and you're on the money!Gardenwalker said:
There is no constitutional impediment to a duumvirate.felix said:
Which one would be Prime and which one Minister?Gardenwalker said:Harman and Clarke is a dream ticket.
Of course they can’t be seen to be openly touting for the role...0 -
Dear Dear Harry, I just looked and 8 in and 8 out today , use those fingers and man up.TGOHF said:
Prestwick has 3 flights a day.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Inverness Airport was pretty quiet back in July.TGOHF said:
Yes - zero queues and none of the hideous crowds one faces at Edinburgh or even Inverness.malcolmg said:
Best airport in Scotland for sure. Saw a nice Antonov and a 747 there yesterday.TGOHF said:
There is no need to panic - look at the wonderful success the SNP has made of Prestwick Airport after it was taken into government hands.malcolmg said:
They would have had to get money from Scottish government and it would have had unionists howling that it was state aid etc. Tory idea of just letting the workers lose their jobs and the ferries rot was not a viable solution.DavidL said:
Then perhaps Cal Mac should have paid for them instead of driving a company out of business.malcolmg said:FPT
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc0 -
What a tool, typical unionist raging because it was finished in time and under budget unlike UK budgets where the overruns cost more than the Scottish project.Scott_P said:
Now, now, just cos the "greatest bridge in the Worrrrrrld" isn't finished yet, 2 years after it opened, no reason to assume the ships will be as badly screwed together...matt said:Repair the defects?
0 -
It's no finishedmalcolmg said:What a tool, typical unionist raging because it was finished in time and under budget unlike UK budgets where the overruns cost more than the Scottish project.
Long tailbacks caused by finishing work on the Queensferry Crossing will stretch beyond its second birthday, a motoring group fears.
Evening commuters have reported mile-long queues as contractors step up remaining tasks to complete the £1.35 billion bridge, which opened in August 2017.
The work is not scheduled to end until October and Transport Scotland has now revealed the builders will not be completely clear of the crossing until December.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/angry-commuters-bemoan-queensferry-crossing-chaos-1-49393750 -
-
FWIW a number of Lib Dems in my local anti-Brexit whatsapp group agree that Corbyn's proposal should not be rejected out of hand - comments about Swinson's reaction have been negative.NickPalmer said:
I think that if Johnson and Corbyn are VONC'd we should indeed endorse a limited mandate for Harman, but I think she'd be VONC'd too (more Tory support, but less Labour Leaver support). It is possible that we have a problem without a solution here, just as Johnson and Cummings hope.Paristonda said:A question for Labour supporters. If there is a voncin Boris, followed by a vonc in Corbyn (with LDs voncing him), should Corbyn vote against Harriet Harman who is proposing the same "extend a50 then call election" programme as he did?
What's his excuse to vote against her in this case? With the knowledge that Boris will remain PM in the upcoming GE surely he should support Harman even if he is bitter about being rejected?
I think he can get away with voncing a Tory, even Ken Clarke, but I don't see how he justifies voncing Harman once he has lost his own vote. What will be his excuse to vonc Harman without losing his own credibility?
It's advantage Swinson simply because her "test" comes first, and what she does puts the ball in Corbyns court.
But for an alternative to work, a good starting point is that we don't all rubbish each others' prospects before they're even tried, in the hope that people will then rally behind our preferred alternative. The weakness of Swinson's position is that she vacillates between implying that she'd be up for a Corbyn caretaker government on the right conditions (but "sadly" thinks it won't work) or she'd be against it (even if it would work). My impression is that she thinks the latter, which is why it's what first came out, but has been advised that she needs to pretend the former.
The LibDem and Green leaders in my patch have written with me jointly to the Guardian to urge consideration of Corbyn's proposals without preconditions. Give it an honest try; if it doesn't work, then we'll look at alternatives and see if they might.0 -
Rubbish, you ever heard of Maintenance. Is there any road, rail or bridge in England that is maintenance free. Why are you such a lickspittle for Westminster. Did you get your pigtails pulled at school.Scott_P said:
It's no finishedmalcolmg said:What a tool, typical unionist raging because it was finished in time and under budget unlike UK budgets where the overruns cost more than the Scottish project.
Long tailbacks caused by finishing work on the Queensferry Crossing will stretch beyond its second birthday, a motoring group fears.
Evening commuters have reported mile-long queues as contractors step up remaining tasks to complete the £1.35 billion bridge, which opened in August 2017.
The work is not scheduled to end until October and Transport Scotland has now revealed the builders will not be completely clear of the crossing until December.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/angry-commuters-bemoan-queensferry-crossing-chaos-1-49393750
