How you Tories do love to stir, don`t you? You are pathetic.... and losers.
So it's 100% Sarah Wollaston standing for the LibDems in Totnes then? I shall enjoy doing my bit to defeat her, proven liar that she is.
Well, since you Tories are busy rebranding the Conservative Party as the party of cheats and tax-dodgers, I don`t think you are going to do very well.
When it comes to a choice between People & Parliament versus Cheats & Tax-Dodgers, I think you are on the losing side, Mr Mark.
Despite your distraction tactics of going off for a ride on your hobby horse, I note you didn't answer whether it will be Dr Sarah standing as your candidate.
Four more years of Trump and the American Republic is just about finished, and that's assuming he doesn't blow us all up with a war on China.
He will be unbound. It is beyond terrifying. Dems have to get this right.
What makes you think Trump will stop at 4 more years?
Unlike this country, the constitution will prohibit him from continuing in office, and there is no way he could change that to allow him to do a Roosevelt.
If that got proposed as a constitutional amendment, the true depth of Trump's support among even Republican congresspersons would soon become apparent. They might fight against impeachment and tolerate a second term.. but it would take four more years for them to stop laughing at that idea.
(And - feel free to throw this back at me in 5 years - IMO the US Constitution is too strong for him to do it unconstitutionally)
He would be unable to do it. Does anyone honestly think 75% of state legislatures would pass that? Even if Republcian legislatures did - and I doubt if they would, given supermajorities are usually required - only 60% ratification would be possible. It simply would not be possible to get such a change through.
And if he tried to do it unconstitutionally he would be undermining his own power. The only there is a United States is because they all signed the constitution. The president exists because of the constitution. At its most extreme, it only takes Maryland and Washington to temporarily secede and put him under arrest in those circumstances and he's finished. More likely is that he would simply be arrested for treason on the orders of Congress.
All Trump has to do is put out a few tweets about a third term, how great it would be, how many people are telling him to do it, etc, and Democrats would lose their shit so completely that President Ivanka won't seem so bad.
What a tool, typical unionist raging because it was finished in time and under budget unlike UK budgets where the overruns cost more than the Scottish project.
It's no finished
Long tailbacks caused by finishing work on the Queensferry Crossing will stretch beyond its second birthday, a motoring group fears.
Evening commuters have reported mile-long queues as contractors step up remaining tasks to complete the £1.35 billion bridge, which opened in August 2017.
The work is not scheduled to end until October and Transport Scotland has now revealed the builders will not be completely clear of the crossing until December.
Pick any construction contract guide and look up the meaning of "Practical Completion" - it's one of the cornerstones of the building industry.
Unfortunately he is not interested in reality or facts , he just wants to whine about the Scottish Government regardless of facts.
I was really impressed with the new Queensferry crossing when I used it for the first time last Autumn. A beautiful example of engineering and due to its location, length and complexity it is bound to have extended teething problems.
I watched from a distance from my bedroom window in Edinburgh as they spun the cables for the older crossing and I drove my wife with 2 friends over it the day it opened in September 1964.
We did not realise we had crossed over due to a classic east coast 'haar' but used it many times afterwards
Oh, yes, its attractive (although, unfortunately, the buffers prevent you from seeing the view as you motor across). It's just that it was great opportunity to significantly reduce congestion and travel time and it doesn't seem to have achieved that. Dualling the A9 will have an impact for those heading north though.
The buffers are essential wind deflectors and it has and will make the crossing quicker. I have travelled the A9 for over 60 years and for most of that time it has been a very dangerous road. The speed cameras have done a very good job in making the road safer but the progress to dualing the whole of the A9 will be some considerable time away
If I had a crystal ball to stare into, I reckon it would have Warren winning Iowa with around 40% of the delegates, and Buttigieg trailing with 30%. Biden, Sanders and Harris would pick up 30% between them. (And everyone else would have to drop out.)
Having started late, Biden has relatively weak organisation in Iowa. He's got 65 staffers against around 100 each for Warren and Buttigieg. I also think he's likely to do less well in cold town halls in multi-hour long meetings that favour the committed over the "generally in favour".
If my Warren (1) vs Buttigieg (2) prediction is wrong, it will probably be because Biden has successfully managed to aggregate the moderate Democrat vote in Iowa. But he sure doesn't look like he has the big 'Mo in there.
How you Tories do love to stir, don`t you? You are pathetic.... and losers.
So it's 100% Sarah Wollaston standing for the LibDems in Totnes then? I shall enjoy doing my bit to defeat her, proven liar that she is.
Well, since you Tories are busy rebranding the Conservative Party as the party of cheats and tax-dodgers, I don`t think you are going to do very well.
When it comes to a choice between People & Parliament versus Cheats & Tax-Dodgers, I think you are on the losing side, Mr Mark.
Despite your distraction tactics of going off for a ride on your hobby horse, I note you didn't answer whether it will be Dr Sarah standing as your candidate.
Hur hur hur......
She’ll be just one of the LibDem gains in the South West next time,
How you Tories do love to stir, don`t you? You are pathetic.... and losers.
So it's 100% Sarah Wollaston standing for the LibDems in Totnes then? I shall enjoy doing my bit to defeat her, proven liar that she is.
Well, since you Tories are busy rebranding the Conservative Party as the party of cheats and tax-dodgers, I don`t think you are going to do very well.
When it comes to a choice between People & Parliament versus Cheats & Tax-Dodgers, I think you are on the losing side, Mr Mark.
Despite your distraction tactics of going off for a ride on your hobby horse, I note you didn't answer whether it will be Dr Sarah standing as your candidate.
Hur hur hur......
She’ll be just one of the LibDem gains in the South West next time,
So long as they do not put Corbyn in no 10.
That would be an earthquake in marginals and they would lose all the progress they have made so far
How you Tories do love to stir, don`t you? You are pathetic.... and losers.
So it's 100% Sarah Wollaston standing for the LibDems in Totnes then? I shall enjoy doing my bit to defeat her, proven liar that she is.
Well, since you Tories are busy rebranding the Conservative Party as the party of cheats and tax-dodgers, I don`t think you are going to do very well.
When it comes to a choice between People & Parliament versus Cheats & Tax-Dodgers, I think you are on the losing side, Mr Mark.
Despite your distraction tactics of going off for a ride on your hobby horse, I note you didn't answer whether it will be Dr Sarah standing as your candidate.
Hur hur hur......
She’ll be just one of the LibDem gains in the South West next time,
I'd say lay anyone at implied probability over 30% (which isn't Warren yet, but may be very soon).
It remains a big field, and there are too many twists to come in this. Someone will have a "moment" in the September debates. Someone will have an Autumn scandal. Someone will outperform expectations in Iowa. And so on, and so on.
That's not to say one of the front-runners won't win... they probably will. But there is money to be made on the roller-coaster on the way there... if Warren does come through, say, she'll very probably have periods when she's well under 30%.
It is worth remembering that the Iowa winner gets the Democratic nomination 90% of the time. It's therefore very important to see who's outperforming there (Warren, Buttigieg), and who's underperforming (Harris, Biden).
Iowa Caucus has only led the process since 1972 (so before then is not really comparable).
1996 and 2012 were walkovers with a sitting Democrat President (Carter had a fairly serious challenger in Teddy Kennedy in 1980).
Of the others, 1972 (Muskie), 1988 (Gephardt), and 1992 (Harkin) were won by losers in the nomination process. So I don't think 90% is right at all.
It's been more predictive in recent years, but I don't think that's down to much more than chance - the Republican Iowa caucus has been LESS predictive (last three winners have been Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz) so I'm not sure there's some sort of real logic that says nowadays winning early is vital.
You've also got a more competitive process than most this year. If Warren did win with 28%, that'd be less than ANY Democrat winner from 1972 to date.
1992 had the Democratic Senator for Iowa running, so most candidates simply skipped it. But your point about sitting Presidents is a good one.
Nevertheless, Iowa defines the field, and results in polling shifts. In the last three competitive Democratic nominations ('16, '08 and '04), the winning candidate had a big, big polling jump following it, and those who failed to get into the top three dropped away sharply.
If Warren wins Iowa, and Sanders is third or worse, then he will lose support. If Biden fails in Iowa, it will reflect on his electibility.
(It's also worth remembering that the 15% rule means that all those Kloubachar and O'Rourke and the like 2-3% end up as nothings. And Harris, were she to poll 8% would likely end up with nothing too. That leaves the delegate split just going four ways, so 28% would become 35%.)
I can't see Harris as the VP pick to Warren; I think she'd go for a relatively young white Democrat. My money would be on Beto O'Rourke, assuming he's not dropped out to run for the Senate in Texas.
Ah yes - the man who 'stands on tables' and nearly won Texas.
In the spirit of the movie we're casting that has to be Vin Diesel.
It is worth remembering that the Iowa winner gets the Democratic nomination 90% of the time. It's therefore very important to see who's outperforming there (Warren, Buttigieg), and who's underperforming (Harris, Biden).
Iowa Caucus has only led the process since 1972 (so before then is not really comparable).
1996 and 2012 were walkovers with a sitting Democrat President (Carter had a fairly serious challenger in Teddy Kennedy in 1980).
Of the others, 1972 (Muskie), 1988 (Gephardt), and 1992 (Harkin) were won by losers in the nomination process. So I don't think 90% is right at all.
It's been more predictive in recent years, but I don't think that's down to much more than chance - the Republican Iowa caucus has been LESS predictive (last three winners have been Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz) so I'm not sure there's some sort of real logic that says nowadays winning early is vital.
You've also got a more competitive process than most this year. If Warren did win with 28%, that'd be less than ANY Democrat winner from 1972 to date.
1992 had the Democratic Senator for Iowa running, so most candidates simply skipped it. But your point about sitting Presidents is a good one.
Nevertheless, Iowa defines the field, and results in polling shifts. In the last three competitive Democratic nominations ('16, '08 and '04), the winning candidate had a big, big polling jump following it, and those who failed to get into the top three dropped away sharply.
If Warren wins Iowa, and Sanders is third or worse, then he will lose support. If Biden fails in Iowa, it will reflect on his electibility.
(It's also worth remembering that the 15% rule means that all those Kloubachar and O'Rourke and the like 2-3% end up as nothings. And Harris, were she to poll 8% would likely end up with nothing too. That leaves the delegate split just going four ways, so 28% would become 35%.)
Genuine question: how transferable is support among Democrat activists as people start to withdraw - can we predictably assume that moderates will switch to the next best moderate, liberals to the next best liberal? I only know two well, both Sanders fans, in CA - they are not not keen on Warren ("not a real liberal") but would I think rally round if Sanders withdrew.
Dominic Cummings is a stuck-up, lying, incompetent wanker whose career in public service has been a series of calamitous disasters that have ruined the lives of millions of people and severely damaged the education system, and who is utterly unfit to run a village post office. He should probably be doing jail time and should certainly not be employed in a position of public trust.
Is that an unhelpful narrative? Because it also happens to be the truth.
Facile populism on law and order, huge un-costed spending splurges, obsession with media manipulation - the way Boris is mimicking Blair/Campbell's New Labour is quite uncanny.
Facile populism on law and order, huge un-costed spending splurges, obsession with media manipulation - the way Boris is mimicking Blair/Campbell's New Labour is quite uncanny.
Genuine question: how transferable is support among Democrat activists as people start to withdraw - can we predictably assume that moderates will switch to the next best moderate, liberals to the next best liberal? I only know two well, both Sanders fans, in CA - they are not not keen on Warren ("not a real liberal") but would I think rally round if Sanders withdrew.
Nobody has a clue - I'm amazed that some of you make profits being so far away from the action.
Dominic Cummings is a stuck-up, lying, incompetent wanker whose career in public service has been a series of calamitous disasters that have ruined the lives of millions of people and severely damaged the education system, and who is utterly unfit to run a village post office. He should probably be doing jail time and should certainly not be employed in a position of public trust.
Is that an unhelpful narrative? Because it also happens to be the truth.
Along with other mps including Kate Hoey there must be 25 or more who will not vote for Corbyn. He will not receive anywhere near that many conservative defectors
It is. Therefore 8% is going to land you, realistically, at most 3-4% at the state level, and probably less.
Assuming 8%, which I'm sceptical about. Harris is a bit of a latecomer to Iowa too, and it is very early days there.
It's entirely possible her campaign will flatline, but just as possible that it gains some traction.
Anyway, got to go for now.
Fair point. I am - I will admit - reading a lot into a single poll.
It will be interesting to see how they evolve over the coming months. But, if I were a betting man, which I (errrr) am, then I would be long Buttigieg here.
Genuine question: how transferable is support among Democrat activists as people start to withdraw - can we predictably assume that moderates will switch to the next best moderate, liberals to the next best liberal? I only know two well, both Sanders fans, in CA - they are not not keen on Warren ("not a real liberal") but would I think rally round if Sanders withdrew.
Nobody has a clue - I'm amazed that some of you make profits being so far away from the action.
Facile populism on law and order, huge un-costed spending splurges, obsession with media manipulation - the way Boris is mimicking Blair/Campbell's New Labour is quite uncanny.
But surely the Labour Party will do the sums of his profligate promises and denounce the Conservatives for their unfunded expenditure. Johnson and his Conservatives are set to destroy the entire economy. Surely even Labour can see that.
Dominic Cummings is a stuck-up, lying, incompetent wanker whose career in public service has been a series of calamitous disasters that have ruined the lives of millions of people and severely damaged the education system, and who is utterly unfit to run a village post office. He should probably be doing jail time and should certainly not be employed in a position of public trust.
Is that an unhelpful narrative? Because it also happens to be the truth.
Can we put you down as 'undecided' sir?
Of course. I have admitted I'm not quite sure what should happen to him.
Genuine question: how transferable is support among Democrat activists as people start to withdraw - can we predictably assume that moderates will switch to the next best moderate, liberals to the next best liberal? I only know two well, both Sanders fans, in CA - they are not not keen on Warren ("not a real liberal") but would I think rally round if Sanders withdrew.
Nobody has a clue - I'm amazed that some of you make profits being so far away from the action.
All the other Betfair punters are in the UK too.
Well none of you should be betting on something where the info is so limited.
Along with other mps including Kate Hoey there must be 25 or more who will not vote for Corbyn. He will not receive anywhere near that many conservative defectors
It certainly wasn't fecking efficient at putting up good-quality schools.
Edit - btw, I take it everyone does know the sell off of student loans began under Labour?
Much cheaper over the piece to simply borrow via gilts and use the money to build. A bit of a scandal, in fact, PFI. Ditto the Loans sell off.
All of this type of stuff is micro clever and macro stupid - common theme being government engaging in chicanery in collusion with private consulting & finance in order to cook the books, and paying through the nose for it.
New Labour were just as guilty of it as the Conservatives. Perhaps more so.
On unhelpful narratives: I'm re-watching Babylon 5 (seasons 2-4). Just reached the final episode of the second series, which contains one of my favourite lines.
"Sedition comes in little packets as well as large ones."
Genuine question: how transferable is support among Democrat activists as people start to withdraw - can we predictably assume that moderates will switch to the next best moderate, liberals to the next best liberal? I only know two well, both Sanders fans, in CA - they are not not keen on Warren ("not a real liberal") but would I think rally round if Sanders withdrew.
Nobody has a clue - I'm amazed that some of you make profits being so far away from the action.
Curious comments from him. Someone whod prefer to remain but voted to leave via the WA and would even contemplate other options to stop no deal.
He actually does compromise on his ideal scenarios. Not to say his compromises are automatically good as far as others are concerned, but he truthfully can say when he asks people to compromise that he is genuinely compromising too.
Also I guess no one wants to be the shortest serving PM even if explicitly only there temporarily
Johnson wants No Deal as he wants to be a 'wartime' leader who has masses of stuff for his autobiography.
Corbyn wants No Deal because he thinks the chaos will be so bad the Brits will vote him into No. 10.
And TIG/CUK want no deal so they can tell their grandchildren they never supported Jeremy Corbyn, and the LibDem position depends on whoever Jo Swinson last spoke to.
I would be very content for Ken Clarke to head a GONU
KC would be much better than anyone else suggested. He must be the most experienced former minister in the commons. He has about 3 decades of experience! He is a political heavyweight who does not take political decisions for short term reasons.
Johnson wants No Deal as he wants to be a 'wartime' leader who has masses of stuff for his autobiography.
Corbyn wants No Deal because he thinks the chaos will be so bad the Brits will vote him into No. 10.
Johnson wants no deal because it's the most popular option among Tories and likely tory voters. He Hope's he can make it work.
Boris hopes he can win a snap election before the voters notice that project fear was even half right.
Unfortunately, you are probably correct. Should he win a majority, which is likely imho, then we will have five years of Johnson dealing with No Deal, and no matter how bad it is we will have no way of getting rid of him.
Johnson wants No Deal as he wants to be a 'wartime' leader who has masses of stuff for his autobiography.
Corbyn wants No Deal because he thinks the chaos will be so bad the Brits will vote him into No. 10.
These claims make the assumption that both leaders are capable of thinking.
Your evidence for this is...?
They clearly have a level of animal cunning as they are able to get masses to follow them through tugging the right emotional strings and forgive them things they would condemn in others.
If the Lib Dems were really smart they would vote Corbyn in, wait until he had taken no deal off the table, and then vote him out again.
Then claim the credit for both avoiding no deal and getting rid of Corbyn.
Job done.
Unfortunately for them they are not in any way smart though.
If the Lib Dems do anything to make Corbyn PM, they can forget about my vote.
I have been impressed with Jo Swinson who does seem to have a good political antenna.
Supporting Corbyn would stop the Lib Dems progress in all those southern seats they hope to win and would be an enormous gift to Boris
After yesterday's debacle, Jo Swinson, nice person she undoubtedly is, now holds a position way above her capabilities. At least, 9 other Lib Dems are probably better qualified.
Biden beats Trump 50% to 38% in that poll, Warren only beats Trump 46% to 39%.
So Warren is doing worse than the 48% Hillary got in 2016 and Biden is doing better than Hillary.
All Trump has to do to beat Warren then is get the 46% who voted for him in 2016 out to vote for him again and on a tied popular vote he wins the Electoral College comfortably.
To beat Biden though Trump has to add at least 2% to the 46% he got in 2016 given a 2% deficit in the popular vote was enough for him to beat Hillary in the EC and probably more as Biden likely does better than Hillary in rustbelt swing states
If the Lib Dems were really smart they would vote Corbyn in, wait until he had taken no deal off the table, and then vote him out again.
Then claim the credit for both avoiding no deal and getting rid of Corbyn.
Job done.
Unfortunately for them they are not in any way smart though.
If the Lib Dems do anything to make Corbyn PM, they can forget about my vote.
I have been impressed with Jo Swinson who does seem to have a good political antenna.
Supporting Corbyn would stop the Lib Dems progress in all those southern seats they hope to win and would be an enormous gift to Boris
After yesterday's debacle, Jo Swinson, nice person she undoubtedly is, now holds a position way above her capabilities. At least, 9 other Lib Dems are probably better qualified.
Tom Brake rejected any idea the Lib Dems would support Corbyn earlier today.
You may not like the message but Corbyn is toxic to so many
Johnson wants No Deal as he wants to be a 'wartime' leader who has masses of stuff for his autobiography.
Corbyn wants No Deal because he thinks the chaos will be so bad the Brits will vote him into No. 10.
Johnson wants no deal because it's the most popular option among Tories and likely tory voters. He Hope's he can make it work.
I take the point and agree that's likely his logic. However, the logic is circular - the apparent pursuit of no deal has already driven off the non-nutty Tory demographic. Actually going through with no deal may be the best way to keep the nutters, but never having pursued no deal in the first place might have produced a larger pool of non-nutty likely Tory voters.
Given the opposition is hopeless, it might still work.
Curious comments from him. Someone whod prefer to remain but voted to leave via the WA and would even contemplate other options to stop no deal.
He actually does compromise on his ideal scenarios. Not to say his compromises are automatically good as far as others are concerned, but he truthfully can say when he asks people to compromise that he is genuinely compromising too.
Also I guess no one wants to be the shortest serving PM even if explicitly only there temporarily
Yesterday I wrote I'd support Clarke for PM. I have now withdrawn my support. He is already compromising. Now its Grieve who I'd back as temporary PM.
Comments
Hur hur hur......
If my Warren (1) vs Buttigieg (2) prediction is wrong, it will probably be because Biden has successfully managed to aggregate the moderate Democrat vote in Iowa. But he sure doesn't look like he has the big 'Mo in there.
That would be an earthquake in marginals and they would lose all the progress they have made so far
I remember hearing that something doctors sometimes write on overweight patient charts is DTS - Danger to Shipping.
https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2020-Delegate-Selection-Rules-12.17.18-FINAL.pdf
In the spirit of the movie we're casting that has to be Vin Diesel.
Remember, let's hurt the separatists the best we know how, through our alcohol consumption-
True Scots-
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
English comrades-
#Whiskey4Whisky4indyref2
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1162381559560921088
Harris is a bit of a latecomer to Iowa too, and it is very early days there.
It's entirely possible her campaign will flatline, but just as possible that it gains some traction.
Anyway, got to go for now.
Is that an unhelpful narrative? Because it also happens to be the truth.
Do we really want the Centre-Right party to have not a single MP who wishes/wished to remain in EU?
This is madness. The Brexit virus eats brains.
Pile of crap. I will never forgive them for introducing the smoking ban.
Along with other mps including Kate Hoey there must be 25 or more who will not vote for Corbyn. He will not receive anywhere near that many conservative defectors
It will be interesting to see how they evolve over the coming months. But, if I were a betting man, which I (errrr) am, then I would be long Buttigieg here.
It's a bit like kebab shop guy.
It helped me stop smoking 15 years ago and as my practice nurse recently said I would not have survived my copd if I had continued smoking
All of this type of stuff is micro clever and macro stupid - common theme being government engaging in chicanery in collusion with private consulting & finance in order to cook the books, and paying through the nose for it.
New Labour were just as guilty of it as the Conservatives. Perhaps more so.
"Sedition comes in little packets as well as large ones."
Not a fair trade.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-lanes-the-democratic-primary-is-a-whole-freaking-transit-system/
He actually does compromise on his ideal scenarios. Not to say his compromises are automatically good as far as others are concerned, but he truthfully can say when he asks people to compromise that he is genuinely compromising too.
Also I guess no one wants to be the shortest serving PM even if explicitly only there temporarily
Johnson wants No Deal as he wants to be a 'wartime' leader who has masses of stuff for his autobiography.
Corbyn wants No Deal because he thinks the chaos will be so bad the Brits will vote him into No. 10.
No unity for a government of national unity.
Supporting Corbyn would stop the Lib Dems progress in all those southern seats they hope to win and would be an enormous gift to Boris
Your evidence for this is...?
And if they pay it who would then vote for?
She seems to be rejecting an offer on the grounds that it is not serious when the only way to tell if it IS serious is to accept it.
So Warren is doing worse than the 48% Hillary got in 2016 and Biden is doing better than Hillary.
All Trump has to do to beat Warren then is get the 46% who voted for him in 2016 out to vote for him again and on a tied popular vote he wins the Electoral College comfortably.
To beat Biden though Trump has to add at least 2% to the 46% he got in 2016 given a 2% deficit in the popular vote was enough for him to beat Hillary in the EC and probably more as Biden likely does better than Hillary in rustbelt swing states
You may not like the message but Corbyn is toxic to so many
Any hypothetical coalition of the unwilling has a very limited shared prospectus.
Given the opposition is hopeless, it might still work.
to paraphrase Rhianna-
We all want the same thing...
We all want a soft Brexit.