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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa
Betdata.io chart of past three months on Betfair Exchange
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https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1162291220292526080?s=21
I have no explanation.
https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP/status/1161987978555789315?s=20
I think Warren's chances are probably about correct at the moment on this chart but Biden and Sanders are both underrated still.
Too much credit for Harris, Yang, Gabbard and most ridiculously of all Clinton in the betting still.
6.5% interest on student loans is ludicrous and unjustifiable though.
In other news of equal relevance, i am open to batting for England in the third test.
FFS
Pennsylvania and Arizona look like the key stats to me.
Of course they can’t be seen to be openly touting for the role...
Yes 13/10
No 4/9
(smarkets)
Yes 10/3
No 2/15
(smarkets)
DavidL said:
In other news this is a bit of a fiasco: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-49370082
The Scottish government has nationalised a ship yard that is building 2 ferries for Cal Mac. The ship yard has gone insolvent because of cost overruns on the ferries that they maintain have been caused by numerous variations of contract by Cal Mac. They claim to be due an additional £40m or so. This is disputed but the company is unable to have these claims resolved in a timescale consistent with its survival.
The owner of Cal Mac is...the Scottish government. So they are now on both sides of this contract and will bear directly or indirectly all of the losses occasioned by it. A truly brilliant use of public money, no doubt. And the private sector in Scotland shrinks just that bit more.
WE need those ferries David, peanuts compared to the likes of crossrail , Boris bridges , DUP bribes , etc
Clarke has been touted as a GONU PM for several years now.
IIRC the frequency wobbles quite a bit as the load varies, and the requirement is only that it averages 50Hz over some period like 24 hours
LD 5/6
Lab 5/6
Con 100/1
(Shadsy)
In theory if they are slow during heavy load, they can wind it up off-peak.
The issue with that theory assumes the generation is still running off-peak (like nuclear, not solar)
The automatic cutout systems, designed to prevent wholesale blackouts, are therefore designed to respond to big drops in frequency.
LD 5/6
Con 5/6
Lab 50/1
(Shadsy)
Such VP theorising is premature.
He's certainly quite articulate and logical....
And I think he'd struggle against her, having already shot his bolt and failed to kill off her political career.
A good omen?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Jones
See 'Maaarsh' beat me to the joke but never mind.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris
Alliance with Scotland was necessary back then for security as the Empire was being forged. It’s not in the new globalised world they now seek to operate in, under the wing, if not the vassalage, of the USA. Despite the warnings of party grandees of both left and right, the Union’s falling apart and they just don’t care. They neither have strategic interest in, nor sentiment for, their unionist allies.
Rather than growing in stature with devolution, the Scottish wings of English parties have shrunk in influence. Even establishing separate Scottish parties won’t be enough to save them. For it’s the interests of England that now matter and that set the agenda.
Scottish outliers and representatives will be as irrelevant and expendable as once were the Irish Ascendancy and the American Loyalists. They’ve not yet been abandoned, but it’s certainly been made clear who’ll decide upon their fate. And it won’t be for them to choose their destiny.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/kenny-macaskill-humiliations-of-ruth-davidson-and-richard-leonard-show-unionists-are-expendable-1-4983522
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWehvtOL_VI
(On paper. I have zero local knowledge.)
What's his excuse to vote against her in this case? With the knowledge that Boris will remain PM in the upcoming GE surely he should support Harman even if he is bitter about being rejected?
I think he can get away with voncing a Tory, even Ken Clarke, but I don't see how he justifies voncing Harman once he has lost his own vote. What will be his excuse to vonc Harman without losing his own credibility?
It's advantage Swinson simply because her "test" comes first, and what she does puts the ball in Corbyns court.
You rarely get folk so blind to their own in-built bias.
It remains a big field, and there are too many twists to come in this. Someone will have a "moment" in the September debates. Someone will have an Autumn scandal. Someone will outperform expectations in Iowa. And so on, and so on.
That's not to say one of the front-runners won't win... they probably will. But there is money to be made on the roller-coaster on the way there... if Warren does come through, say, she'll very probably have periods when she's well under 30%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre
Except to say, Warren all the way.
Biden is too deluded. Harris is too robot. Buttigieg is too green. Sanders is too Sanders.
Sure Warren has negatives.
But it feels we all need a Warren in the White House right now.
"Trading team" is having a good think about my £50 on the Lib Dems there. Allowed £30.
This was quite an interesting observation, though.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/elizabeth-warrens-populism-for-professionals
Warren is the only candidate in the race whose fortunes have materially improved over the past six months, which suggests that the vein she’s found has less to do with what is permanent within the Democratic electorate than with what is changing. When Rakich analyzed polling data from Emerson College last month, he found that Warren, alone among the major contenders, drew support from voters who were split almost evenly between Sanders and Clinton in 2016...
If she can display the odd bit of skepticism towards the left of the party in order to reassure the centre, I think she'd be in with a very good chance.
But for an alternative to work, a good starting point is that we don't all rubbish each others' prospects before they're even tried, in the hope that people will then rally behind our preferred alternative. The weakness of Swinson's position is that she vacillates between implying that she'd be up for a Corbyn caretaker government on the right conditions (but "sadly" thinks it won't work) or she'd be against it (even if it would work). My impression is that she thinks the latter, which is why it's what first came out, but has been advised that she needs to pretend the former.
The LibDem and Green leaders in my patch have written with me jointly to the Guardian to urge consideration of Corbyn's proposals without preconditions. Give it an honest try; if it doesn't work, then we'll look at alternatives and see if they might.
Trump/Pence vs Warren/Harris.
That would be awesome. Movie material even. Casting writes itself -
Donald Trump - Danny Devito
Mike Pence - Denzil Washington
Elizabeth Warren - Dame Maggie Smith
Kamala Harris - Beyonce
Long tailbacks caused by finishing work on the Queensferry Crossing will stretch beyond its second birthday, a motoring group fears.
Evening commuters have reported mile-long queues as contractors step up remaining tasks to complete the £1.35 billion bridge, which opened in August 2017.
The work is not scheduled to end until October and Transport Scotland has now revealed the builders will not be completely clear of the crossing until December.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/angry-commuters-bemoan-queensferry-crossing-chaos-1-4939375