politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New party grouping, Unite to Remain, will make BJohnson’s autu
Options
Comments
-
No. Leaving on schedule could have happened with No Deal. Just like it can on 31 October. That was an option.anothernick said:
But against the only way that "leaving on schedule" could have happened, namely May's WA.Philip_Thompson said:
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.Benpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
ERG repeatedly voted to leave on schedule.0 -
On the basis of this Opinium poll the Tories would very narrowly pick up 7 seats from Labour. However, the MPs in 4 of those seats will enjoy first term incumbency and be well placed to hold on.0
-
I've not paid that much attention to your posts, so I don't know whether that has a smiley face on the end. In any case I had a good chuckle to myself at your escalation. My route to an EU passport would be via an independent Scotland in Europe via grandparentage, and yet it's not even that/your purported country you are asking me to fuck off out of, with your 'running out of time' very easily readable as a Tommy Robinson and the boys type threat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Yes, there's a lot of remainacs about - if they don't like the "juxtapose" they've still got time to fuck off to continental Europe. Hurry though, you're running out of time.Pro_Rata said:
If one were a North Korean dissident one might object to the term Democratic People's Republic of North Korea without being against the wider principles of democracy, the people or republics. I think a lot of us would feel a peaceful, prosperous, friendly Brexit is a similarly rankling and absurdly, knowingly dishonest juxtaposition.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not pretending anything, anyone who objects to the words "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" being on a coin is pathetic. Say that you agree with the sentiment but dislike Brexit, that's reasonable. Acting all outraged and saying you're that angry you'll deface coins . . . that's just sad.Chris said:
Still having trouble with that basic English comprehension, eh?Philip_Thompson said:
You think wanting "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is moronic?Chris said:
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.Philip_Thompson said:
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.Stark_Dawning said:The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
What I said was that _you_ were _pretending_ to be moronic, when you portrayed people who objected to this commemorative coin as disagreeing with the sentiments expressed in the motto.
And then I said no one could really be that moronic. I rest my case!
And then spend the next hours getting precious about comparatively Tom and Jerry stuff on the other side.0 -
The line is "It will be brilliant, and not our fault..."Benpointer said:Crash out No Deal Brexit will be Labour's fault?
Well, it's a view I guess.0 -
Please - Tommy Robinson style threat - grow upPro_Rata said:
I've not paid that much attention to your posts, so I don't know whether that has a smiley face on the end. In any case I had a good chuckle to myself at your escalation. My route to an EU passport would be via an independent Scotland in Europe via grandparentage, and yet it's not even that/your purported country you are asking me to fuck off out of, with your 'running out of time' very easily readable as a Tommy Robinson and the boys type threat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Yes, there's a lot of remainacs about - if they don't like the "juxtapose" they've still got time to fuck off to continental Europe. Hurry though, you're running out of time.Pro_Rata said:
If one were a North Korean dissident one might object to the term Democratic People's Republic of North Korea without being against the wider principles of democracy, the people or republics. I think a lot of us would feel a peaceful, prosperous, friendly Brexit is a similarly rankling and absurdly, knowingly dishonest juxtaposition.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not pretending anything, anyone who objects to the words "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" being on a coin is pathetic. Say that you agree with the sentiment but dislike Brexit, that's reasonable. Acting all outraged and saying you're that angry you'll deface coins . . . that's just sad.Chris said:
Still having trouble with that basic English comprehension, eh?Philip_Thompson said:
You think wanting "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is moronic?Chris said:
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.Philip_Thompson said:
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.Stark_Dawning said:The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
What I said was that _you_ were _pretending_ to be moronic, when you portrayed people who objected to this commemorative coin as disagreeing with the sentiments expressed in the motto.
And then I said no one could really be that moronic. I rest my case!
And then spend the next hours getting precious about comparatively Tom and Jerry stuff on the other side.0 -
May proposed the votes and said she would do what Parliament voted for. Had all of Parliament voted like the ERG we'd be out by now.Chris said:
So you reckon a vote in Parliament can decide whether the PM requests an extension?Philip_Thompson said:
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.Benpointer said:
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
Things are looking up!0 -
The WA losing wasn't the reason we are still in.anothernick said:
If the ERG had voted for the WA we would be out by now. The fact we are not is down to them.Philip_Thompson said:
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.Benpointer said:
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.anothernick said:
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.Charles said:
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum resultanothernick said:
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.Scott_P said:Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
The reason we are still in is the subsequent two votes after MV2 - the vote that rejected No Deal (ERG voted in favour) and the vote that requested an extension (ERG voted against). Had either of those votes gone the ERGs way we'd be out already.0 -
Credit where credit's due.Scott_P said:
The line is "It will be brilliant, and not our fault..."Benpointer said:Crash out No Deal Brexit will be Labour's fault?
Well, it's a view I guess.0 -
A no-deal Brexit is going to be a shit-storm.Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Why are we no-deal brexiting?
Because the EU is refusing to negotiate with us.
A lot of people assumed, since there had never been an article 50 application before, that the EU would act in good faith.
We were wrong.
Stock up on canned goods - and be glad we are soon to be free from that undemocratic mess of an institution.0 -
Right, night all.
Looking forward to that thread header explaining how No Deal Brexit is all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
0 -
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.JBriskinindyref2 said:
A no-deal Brexit is going to be a shit-storm.Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Why are we no-deal brexiting?
Because the EU is refusing to negotiate with us.
A lot of people assumed, since there had never been an article 50 application before, that the EU would act in good faith.
We were wrong.
Stock up on canned goods - and be glad we are soon to be free from that undemocratic mess of an institution.0 -
a great deal that just happened to include a ludicrous backstop that would split our country in two.Benpointer said:
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.JBriskinindyref2 said:
A no-deal Brexit is going to be a shit-storm.Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Why are we no-deal brexiting?
Because the EU is refusing to negotiate with us.
A lot of people assumed, since there had never been an article 50 application before, that the EU would act in good faith.
We were wrong.
Stock up on canned goods - and be glad we are soon to be free from that undemocratic mess of an institution.0 -
Well you need to remember that Iraq was all down to the Tories.Benpointer said:
Crash out No Deal Brexit will be Labour's fault?Andrew said:
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.Benpointer said:
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
Well, it's a view I guess.0 -
If it was a great deal then I assume you are annoyed with the 400+ MPs who voted against it?Benpointer said:
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.JBriskinindyref2 said:
A no-deal Brexit is going to be a shit-storm.Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Why are we no-deal brexiting?
Because the EU is refusing to negotiate with us.
A lot of people assumed, since there had never been an article 50 application before, that the EU would act in good faith.
We were wrong.
Stock up on canned goods - and be glad we are soon to be free from that undemocratic mess of an institution.0 -
Good luck to anyone trying to write that header, sounds boring.Benpointer said:Right, night all.
Looking forward to that thread header explaining how No Deal Brexit is all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Apocalyptic scaremongering is more entertaining despite being silly nonsense.0 -
Will this e in the Govt’s information leaflet?JBriskinindyref2 said:
A no-deal Brexit is going to be a shit-storm.Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Why are we no-deal brexiting?
Because the EU is refusing to negotiate with us.
A lot of people assumed, since there had never been an article 50 application before, that the EU would act in good faith.
We were wrong.
Stock up on canned goods - and be glad we are soon to be free from that undemocratic mess of an institution.0 -
Meanwhile, our friend with the amusing surname has had his snout in the trough:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy
Tribunes of the people my right tit.0 -
As some of you know, I like having stuff on in the background whilst I work. My latest spoken-word lecturer is Stephen Kotkin. Here is his "Sphere of Influence" series on geopolitics.
Stephen Kotkin: Sphere of Influence I - The Gift of Geopolitics: How Worlds are Made, and Unmade
Stephen Kotkin: Sphere of Influence II - What, if anything, is the Difference between Fascism and Communism?
Stephen Kotkin: Sphere of Influence III - The Chip on the Shoulder
Enjoy.0 -
Nice to see that Jo has got herself a sideline modelling knitting patterns.Scott_P said:0 -
Is the opium vs yougov gulf due to likelihood to vote?0
-
Incisive comment.SandyRentool said:
Nice to see that Jo has got herself a sideline modelling knitting patterns.Scott_P said:0 -
If various parties work together and stand down in favour of each other, do they get ruled to be acting in common and get restricted on their election spending?0
-
I thought it was a purl of wisdom.Streeter said:
Incisive comment.SandyRentool said:
Nice to see that Jo has got herself a sideline modelling knitting patterns.Scott_P said:
Night all.0 -
Not if you've actually watched Swinson it ain't!Philip_Thompson said:0 -
As I understand it, YouGov have said that they weight based on percentage vote self-reporting in the immediate aftermath of 2017 rather than self reporting based on current recollection. I'm not a psephologist so I can't comment on the validity of that as a method, but their blog post suggested that accounts for the difference.Gallowgate said:Is the opium vs yougov gulf due to likelihood to vote?
1 -
I'm sorry, am I reading this right? I've been busy all day celebrating my 30th. UKIP have elected a man called Dick Braine to run their party. Well I guess it isn't his fault. Better than calling your party CUK at least.0
-
-
Not everyone shares your view......Benpointer said:
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.
"Desperate to come back with something that could technically be labelled “Brexit”, the former PM signed up to every EU request. She accepted the EU’s sequencing, announcing that Britain would settle EU demands before any discussion of trade. She agreed to pay a £39 billion bill that no international tribunal would uphold. She accepted – no, she actively requested – a two-year period where Britain would be subject to every dot and comma of EU law, including new rules passed during that time, with no vote and no veto. These acts of homage and fealty were packaged together and offered to the EU at the Salzburg summit last September. Never has a sovereign country prostrated itself in such an undignified manner. Here was Britain asking the EU to set its technical standards, promising to contribute to the military security of the continent, swearing never to be more competitive than its neighbours. Yanis Varoufakis, the raffish former Greek finance minister, called it “a deal that a nation signs only after having been defeated at war,” though it reminded me more of the ultimatum issued by Austria-Hungary to Serbia in 1914 – a provocative demand to control the internal affairs of another state.
But it was not long before she made yet more concessions, offering to stay in the EU’s customs union and, in the end, even suggesting a second referendum. The flaw all the way through was that her officials were (as one of them privately admitted to me in 2017) unwilling to walk away.
It should have been game set and match to Brussels. Here was the fifth largest economy in the world, the second largest in Europe, offering to become a captive market for EU exporters, retaining the various barriers that keep out more efficient global rivals. Here was the country that had twice helped to liberate the continent volunteering for semicolonial status. All the EU had to do was to offer a standard break clause of the kind contained in almost every international treaty. But that would, for some Eurocrats, have undone the whole point of the withdrawal agreement, namely that it had to be seen to be punitive. So they dug in, precipitating the downfall of May and her replacement by a ministry that is serious about walking away."
0 -
-
-
Thanks 🙏OnboardG1 said:
As I understand it, YouGov have said that they weight based on percentage vote self-reporting in the immediate aftermath of 2017 rather than self reporting based on current recollection. I'm not a psephologist so I can't comment on the validity of that as a method, but their blog post suggested that accounts for the difference.Gallowgate said:Is the opium vs yougov gulf due to likelihood to vote?
0 -
If you're quoting blocks of text from somebody else, it's regarded as polite to name and link to the source you are quoting fromWulfrun_Phil said:
Not everyone shares your view......Benpointer said:
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.
"Desperate to come back with something that could technically be labelled “Brexit”, the former PM signed up to every EU request. She accepted the EU’s sequencing, announcing that Britain would settle EU demands before any discussion of trade. She agreed to pay a £39 billion bill that no international tribunal would uphold. She accepted – no, she actively requested – a two-year period where Britain would be subject to every dot and comma of EU law, including new rules passed during that time, with no vote and no veto. These acts of homage and fealty were packaged together and offered to the EU at the Salzburg summit last September. Never has a sovereign country prostrated itself in such an undignified manner. Here was Britain asking the EU to set its technical standards, promising to contribute to the military security of the continent, swearing never to be more competitive than its neighbours. Yanis Varoufakis, the raffish former Greek finance minister, called it “a deal that a nation signs only after having been defeated at war,” though it reminded me more of the ultimatum issued by Austria-Hungary to Serbia in 1914 – a provocative demand to control the internal affairs of another state.
But it was not long before she made yet more concessions, offering to stay in the EU’s customs union and, in the end, even suggesting a second referendum. The flaw all the way through was that her officials were (as one of them privately admitted to me in 2017) unwilling to walk away.
It should have been game set and match to Brussels. Here was the fifth largest economy in the world, the second largest in Europe, offering to become a captive market for EU exporters, retaining the various barriers that keep out more efficient global rivals. Here was the country that had twice helped to liberate the continent volunteering for semicolonial status. All the EU had to do was to offer a standard break clause of the kind contained in almost every international treaty. But that would, for some Eurocrats, have undone the whole point of the withdrawal agreement, namely that it had to be seen to be punitive. So they dug in, precipitating the downfall of May and her replacement by a ministry that is serious about walking away."0 -
His parents own a farm shock !OnboardG1 said:Meanwhile, our friend with the amusing surname has had his snout in the trough:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy
Tribunes of the people my right tit.
Embarrassing from the guardian.0 -
A GE election is a completely different beast. People tend to vote one thing in a GE but spray their support about in the less important stuff. Survation also tapped into the Remainer vote lending better than anyone in 2017, there was a big leap in the young vote for example, the sort of shift by unlikely to voters YouGov method is unlikely to pick up on. Conversely, if YouGov started saying older voters are changing intent I would listen.HYUFD said:
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the restBenpointer said:
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.HYUFD said:
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or notBenpointer said:
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2 @ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamberBenpointer said:
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 314, Labour 248, SNP 37, LDs 27, Plaid 3, BXP 2, Greens 1, DUP 10, SF 3.Scott_P said:
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Why do you bother?
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.0 -
Election spending limits apply to candidates not parties - if a candidate represents more than one party this has no impact on the amount they are allowed to spend.ExiledInScotland said:If various parties work together and stand down in favour of each other, do they get ruled to be acting in common and get restricted on their election spending?
0 -
Erm. Why is he a Labour MP?HYUFD said:0 -
You have to laugh....HYUFD said:0 -
HYUFD said:
Absolutely. Prisons are only half filled so there is no problem with capacity.0 -
I know, but I also know that doing here then results in the tribal reaction along the lines of "it's only the opinion of X, he/she always talks a load of c**p so we can safely ignore all that".viewcode said:
If you're quoting blocks of text from somebody else, it's regarded as polite to name and link to the source you are quoting fromWulfrun_Phil said:
Not everyone shares your view......Benpointer said:
They offered us a great deal. But no Deal was ever going to be acceptable to ERG, so No Deal it is.
"Desperate to come back with something that could technically be labelled “Brexit”, the former PM signed up to every EU request. She accepted the EU’s sequencing, announcing that Britain would settle EU demands before any discussion of trade. She agreed to pay a £39 billion bill that no international tribunal would uphold. She accepted – no, she actively requested – a two-year period where Britain would be subject to every dot and comma of EU law, including new rules passed during that time, with no vote and no veto. These acts of homage and fealty were packaged together and offered to the EU at the Salzburg summit last September. Never has a sovereign country prostrated itself in such an undignified manner. Here was Britain asking the EU to set its technical standards, promising to contribute to the military security of the continent, swearing never to be more competitive than its neighbours. Yanis Varoufakis, the raffish former Greek finance minister, called it “a deal that a nation signs only after having been defeated at war,” though it reminded me more of the ultimatum issued by Austria-Hungary to Serbia in 1914 – a provocative demand to control the internal affairs of another state.
But it was not long before she made yet more concessions, offering to stay in the EU’s customs union and, in the end, even suggesting a second referendum. The flaw all the way through was that her officials were (as one of them privately admitted to me in 2017) unwilling to walk away.
It should have been game set and match to Brussels. Here was the fifth largest economy in the world, the second largest in Europe, offering to become a captive market for EU exporters, retaining the various barriers that keep out more efficient global rivals. Here was the country that had twice helped to liberate the continent volunteering for semicolonial status. All the EU had to do was to offer a standard break clause of the kind contained in almost every international treaty. But that would, for some Eurocrats, have undone the whole point of the withdrawal agreement, namely that it had to be seen to be punitive. So they dug in, precipitating the downfall of May and her replacement by a ministry that is serious about walking away."0 -
While waiting for such a header, we might have to just keep on using this little classic:Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/0 -
No such swing, it’s roundabouts and mor.MarqueeMark said:
Not if you've actually watched Swinson it ain't!Philip_Thompson said:0 -
It kinda is though. Rick, Richard, Ricky, Rich, Richie were all available. He chose Dick. There's a word for that.OnboardG1 said:I'm sorry, am I reading this right? I've been busy all day celebrating my 30th. UKIP have elected a man called Dick Braine to run their party. Well I guess it isn't his fault. Better than calling your party CUK at least.
0 -
I see that Donald is retweeting a claim that Bill Clinton is behind the Epstein suicide.0
-
Not as nice as his Father in Laws pad in Northumberland. Just the place to sneer at the Establishment Elite from:TGOHF said:
His parents own a farm shock !OnboardG1 said:Meanwhile, our friend with the amusing surname has had his snout in the trough:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy
Tribunes of the people my right tit.
Embarrassing from the guardian.
https://chillingham-castle.com/0 -
Would Hoey?MarqueeMark said:
You have to laugh....HYUFD said:0 -
Tommy Robinson?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Please - Tommy Robinson style threat - grow upPro_Rata said:
I've not paid that much attention to your posts, so I don't know whether that has a smiley face on the end. In any case I had a good chuckle to myself at your escalation. My route to an EU passport would be via an independent Scotland in Europe via grandparentage, and yet it's not even that/your purported country you are asking me to fuck off out of, with your 'running out of time' very easily readable as a Tommy Robinson and the boys type threat.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Yes, there's a lot of remainacs about - if they don't like the "juxtapose" they've still got time to fuck off to continental Europe. Hurry though, you're running out of time.Pro_Rata said:
If one were a North Korean dissident one might object to the term Democratic People's Republic of North Korea without being against the wider principles of democracy, the people or republics. I think a lot of us would feel a peaceful, prosperous, friendly Brexit is a similarly rankling and absurdly, knowingly dishonest juxtaposition.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not pretending anything, anyone who objects to the words "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" being on a coin is pathetic. Say that you agree with the sentiment but dislike Brexit, that's reasonable. Acting all outraged and saying you're that angry you'll deface coins . . . that's just sad.Chris said:
Still having trouble with that basic English comprehension, eh?Philip_Thompson said:
You think wanting "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is moronic?Chris said:
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.Philip_Thompson said:
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.Stark_Dawning said:The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side.
What I said was that _you_ were _pretending_ to be moronic, when you portrayed people who objected to this commemorative coin as disagreeing with the sentiments expressed in the motto.
And then I said no one could really be that moronic. I rest my case!
And then spend the next hours getting precious about comparatively Tom and Jerry stuff on the other side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmR3p3-LN940 -
It would be hilarious if Grieve and Lee defect to trigger a VONC only to see Mann and Hoey cancel them out.0
-
Mann has denied the reports.Philip_Thompson said:It would be hilarious if Grieve and Lee defect to trigger a VONC only to see Mann and Hoey cancel them out.
0 -
I think that depends. I think she would VoNC the government if she thought it would lead to a Corbyn victory. (And I think she'd do it without hesitation.)Philip_Thompson said:
Would Hoey?MarqueeMark said:
You have to laugh....HYUFD said:
But if she thought it would lead to a LibDem victory (or there was a serious risk of the LibDems getting enough seats that they could force a second referendum), then I think she'd be much more reticent.
I do think it is more likely, in the second scenario, that she abstained. She's never voted with the Conservatives before, and I think it would be a difficult bridge to cross for her.1 -
Stop being silly. Kate has always been atypical Labour, has campaigned frequently with Farage and encouraged Banks/Farage in the pre-Referendum period. As soom as she announced she was standing down at the next election, I thought "she's going to vote with Boris". She's so far gone I'll be very surprised if she doesn't vote with him in a VoNC.rcs1000 said:
I think that depends. I think she would VoNC the government if she thought it would lead to a Corbyn victory. (And I think she'd do it without hesitation.)Philip_Thompson said:
Would Hoey?MarqueeMark said:
You have to laugh....HYUFD said:
But if she thought it would lead to a LibDem victory (or there was a serious risk of the LibDems getting enough seats that they could force a second referendum), then I think she'd be much more reticent.
I do think it is more likely, in the second scenario, that she abstained. She's never voted with the Conservatives before, and I think it would be a difficult bridge to cross for her.0 -
If you leave the backstop aside for a moment, it is certainly true that the UK government made mistakes. I have emphasised throughout the failure (part rectified now) to roll over existing EU trade deals, and that was one. Likewise, I would agree scheduling was an error.Wulfrun_Phil said:I know, but I also know that doing here then results in the tribal reaction along the lines of "it's only the opinion of X, he/she always talks a load of c**p so we can safely ignore all that".
But it is simply incorrect to state that the EU has somehow wiped the floor with incompetent British negotiators. The deal that Theresa May struck - and I'm leaving the backstop aside for a second - was a good one. It safeguarded British access to the Single Market, it ended Freedom of Movement, it allowed Britain to diverge from EU standards and law, it took us out of the CAP and the CFP, and it allowed us to forge our own trade deals.
Now, there was alignment in sectors. But, it's a fiction to suppose that the UK would (for example) have its own standards for consumer electronics. Every piece of electronics sold in the UK post Brexit will be CE certified (and FCC and UL). That's inevitable. Signing us up to obey these rules may be a technical breach of sovereignty - but it's also worth remembering that it is no more of a breach than us being members of the International Telecoms Union, which sets a whole bunch of standards in the UK, which we're treaty bound to implement into law.
History, I suspect, will just Mrs May poorly, over the backstop, and over her sales skills. And I suspect that when we eventually sign an FTA with the EU, it will have more onerous enforcement mechanisms (and therefore more of a diminution of soverignty) than would have been the case.0 -
We should have signed up to the backstop as soon as we could get the lid off the biro. It was a stunningly good deal. As to the rest, it wasn't particularly difficult to negotiate a reasonable deal. The EU aren't our enemies and there are very few areas where our mutual interests don't coincide pretty closely. The failure is entirely down to our stupidity.rcs1000 said:
If you leave the backstop aside for a moment, it is certainly true that the UK government made mistakes. I have emphasised throughout the failure (part rectified now) to roll over existing EU trade deals, and that was one. Likewise, I would agree scheduling was an error.Wulfrun_Phil said:I know, but I also know that doing here then results in the tribal reaction along the lines of "it's only the opinion of X, he/she always talks a load of c**p so we can safely ignore all that".
But it is simply incorrect to state that the EU has somehow wiped the floor with incompetent British negotiators. The deal that Theresa May struck - and I'm leaving the backstop aside for a second - was a good one. It safeguarded British access to the Single Market, it ended Freedom of Movement, it allowed Britain to diverge from EU standards and law, it took us out of the CAP and the CFP, and it allowed us to forge our own trade deals.
Now, there was alignment in sectors. But, it's a fiction to suppose that the UK would (for example) have its own standards for consumer electronics. Every piece of electronics sold in the UK post Brexit will be CE certified (and FCC and UL). That's inevitable. Signing us up to obey these rules may be a technical breach of sovereignty - but it's also worth remembering that it is no more of a breach than us being members of the International Telecoms Union, which sets a whole bunch of standards in the UK, which we're treaty bound to implement into law.
History, I suspect, will just Mrs May poorly, over the backstop, and over her sales skills. And I suspect that when we eventually sign an FTA with the EU, it will have more onerous enforcement mechanisms (and therefore more of a diminution of soverignty) than would have been the case.1 -
The key point we do not know is how many Tories find No Deal to be utterly unacceptable. We know about the handful who want to Remain at all costs. We know quite a few more are opposed to crashing out.Philip_Thompson said:It would be hilarious if Grieve and Lee defect to trigger a VONC only to see Mann and Hoey cancel them out.
What we don't know is how strongly they feel this. How far they will go to prevent it.
We won't know till the very last minute.0 -
From the Telegraph link: Billions of pounds will be set aside to provide an additional 10,000 prison places over the next decadeHYUFD said:
Set aside from where?0 -
The Boris magic forest. It has sprouted due to an outbreak of fervent belief.DecrepitJohnL said:
From the Telegraph link: Billions of pounds will be set aside to provide an additional 10,000 prison places over the next decadeHYUFD said:
Set aside from where?0 -
Lol, Mann is my MP - wonder if he'll be running for Labour here at the next GE ?!0
-
It doesn't account for the entire differenceOnboardG1 said:
As I understand it, YouGov have said that they weight based on percentage vote self-reporting in the immediate aftermath of 2017 rather than self reporting based on current recollection. I'm not a psephologist so I can't comment on the validity of that as a method, but their blog post suggested that accounts for the difference.Gallowgate said:Is the opium vs yougov gulf due to likelihood to vote?
0 -
Actually, under FPTP it's usually better to lose the argument with distinction.Recidivist said:Gaming the system to gain a short term advantage isn't especially productive. You really need to win the argument if you want to win elections.
0 -
Is no one mentioning Her Majesty's intervention? Not even paywalled
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/queen-our-politicians-cant-govern-twjmp657f0 -
They both stand aside for a Green, keeping dry powder and goodwill for the next election, which won't be too far off anyway?llef said:re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions.
Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
0 -
The Borisitas wont mention it because it disses their plaster god, the Swinton and May loyalists wont mention it because they already know they are crap, and the Corbynisas only insult people who are Jewish.Monkeys said:Is no one mentioning Her Majesty's intervention? Not even paywalled
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/queen-our-politicians-cant-govern-twjmp657f0 -
Paywalled for meMonkeys said:Is no one mentioning Her Majesty's intervention? Not even paywalled
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/queen-our-politicians-cant-govern-twjmp657f
0 -
Leaving aside the Remain angle, it's not a polling site, it's a *betting* site.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
To do betting and not go broke you need an extra layer of analysis between polling and predictions.
If you don't have that you end up spending months on end totally sure it's going to be Biden vs Bernie, then suddenly dropping Bernie down the memory hole and being totally sure it's going to be Biden vs Warren.0 -
England won't be free.Philip_Thompson said:
Out of the EU and rid of the Scots? Truly a blessed day if England can be free.
It will just be cheap.0 -
It's not a polling site. If you want a polling site you want Anthony Wells's site http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ This is a betting site.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
0 -
Paywalled but per the first paragraphs it's about stuff she said way back when, so it doesn't really tell us much about what she'd do in the current situation - unless you can read something into the fact that it just got leaked.Monkeys said:Is no one mentioning Her Majesty's intervention? Not even paywalled
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/queen-our-politicians-cant-govern-twjmp657f0 -
Plenty I disagree with her on and I'm happy enough for her to be replaced when she stands down (which I think she said she is) but I agree with RCS, really can't see her supporting the Conservatives in a confidence vote. Even abstaining is quite unlikely, she really likes Brexit but she isn't someone who is willing to support the Tories.viewcode said:
Stop being silly. Kate has always been atypical Labour, has campaigned frequently with Farage and encouraged Banks/Farage in the pre-Referendum period. As soom as she announced she was standing down at the next election, I thought "she's going to vote with Boris". She's so far gone I'll be very surprised if she doesn't vote with him in a VoNC.rcs1000 said:
I think that depends. I think she would VoNC the government if she thought it would lead to a Corbyn victory. (And I think she'd do it without hesitation.)Philip_Thompson said:
Would Hoey?MarqueeMark said:
You have to laugh....HYUFD said:
But if she thought it would lead to a LibDem victory (or there was a serious risk of the LibDems getting enough seats that they could force a second referendum), then I think she'd be much more reticent.
I do think it is more likely, in the second scenario, that she abstained. She's never voted with the Conservatives before, and I think it would be a difficult bridge to cross for her.0 -
Can never be linked to enough.Foxy said:
While waiting for such a header, we might have to just keep on using this little classic:Benpointer said:Still waiting for one of our PB Hard Brexiteers to tell us how it's all going to pan out once 'project fear' is shown to be an establishment myth.
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
Dripping with imperial arrogance, every single prediction is profoundly wrong, yet even through this fog Hannan's vision (and that of his paymasters) of the new UK economy peeps through: we will mcfrack away all environmental regulations, torpedo workers' rights, money launder like there's no tomorrow, and ease all our miseries with snake oil and homeopathy.
Who will let the Irish, Dutch and Danes know about their fabulous future?0 -
Mann said on R5L a couple of days ago that if Lab tables a VONC he doesn't expect it to take place - because Boris will then immediately call a GE and vote on whether to have GE will take precedence.0
-
Based on polling in large partviewcode said:
It's not a polling site. If you want a polling site you want Anthony Wells's site http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ This is a betting site.HYUFD said:
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber0
This discussion has been closed.