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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New party grouping, Unite to Remain, will make BJohnson’s autu

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New party grouping, Unite to Remain, will make BJohnson’s autumn election decision even harder

Eight days ago after the LDs victory in overturning the Tory 19.5% majority in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election I noted  that the significant feature had been the decision by the Greens and Plaid Cymru to stand aside.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited August 2019
    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited August 2019
    How does somebody on suicide watch manage to off themselves?

    Awfully convenient for plenty of powerful people.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Then it is up to Labour to change its leader, choose one who is properly committed to remaining, and to come on board. Whatever happens, the Tories have managed to wreck the Conservative Party, for their own selfish ends.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    Regional subsets like that should be treated very very cautiously. The last full Scotland poll by Lord Ashcroft only a week ago painted a very different picture of The Tourist prospects in Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    Regional subsets like that should be treated very very cautiously. The last full Scotland poll by Lord Ashcroft only a week ago painted a very different picture of The Tourist prospects in Scotland.
    No it didn't, it had Boris more popular than Corbyn in Scotland and Davidson more popular than Rennie and Leonard. (Plus I am sure tourists will still come to the Highlands and Edinburgh even after Boris and Brexit!)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    edited August 2019
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    That's going to keep some conspiracy theorists busy for years to come.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    HYUFD said:

    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    The thing is that I could see a SNP/Lib alliance in the lab/tory held seats could do a lot of damage
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    Regional subsets like that should be treated very very cautiously. The last full Scotland poll by Lord Ashcroft only a week ago painted a very different picture of The Tourist prospects in Scotland.
    The Tourists is a bit harsh. Most of them have at least a vestigial connection to Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also latest Scottish numbers from Yougov yesterday give SNP 39%, Tories 23%, LDs 14%, Slab 12% so Tories would hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats ie a majority on UNS, though SLab would lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    The thing is that I could see a SNP/Lib alliance in the lab/tory held seats could do a lot of damage
    Most Tory held Scottish seats are rural and more Leavy where Labour is weak and Unionist Remainers will vote LD not tactically vote SNP
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Have you totted up how many seats fall into each of those categories? Also, are you sure you should be putting this insight online? The Remain Alliance might not have realised that they need to avoid putting up candidates in Labour/Tory marginals that they have no hope of winning in the first place.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Have you totted up how many seats fall into each of those categories? Also, are you sure you should be putting this insight online? The Remain Alliance might not have realised that they need to avoid putting up candidates in Labour/Tory marginals that they have no hope of winning in the first place.
    They will put up candidates, the LDs say Corbyn Labour is not a Remain party and as bad as the Boris led Tory Party
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1159468556053909510?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good afternoon, my fellow XCOM Commanders.

    Interesting development, but won't alter anything this side of an election. When the decision on how/if we leave will be made.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    In the thread header there is a typo. It says Cameron's Tories picked off seats in "2017". It was of course 2015! The Tories also won 13 Scottish seats in 2017, not 11!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    But where are the Labour votes leaking?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    But where are the Labour votes leaking?
    24% to the LDs, 10% to the Greens and 6% to the Brexit Party of its 2017 vote

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Have you totted up how many seats fall into each of those categories? Also, are you sure you should be putting this insight online? The Remain Alliance might not have realised that they need to avoid putting up candidates in Labour/Tory marginals that they have no hope of winning in the first place.
    They will put up candidates, the LDs say Corbyn Labour is not a Remain party and as bad as the Boris led Tory Party
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1159468556053909510?s=20
    I believe that the lib dems and greens genuinely want a second referendum , it's not just a way to win seats. But if they start trying to help the Tories in CON/LAB marginals I'll change my mind on that
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    That's going to keep some conspiracy theorists busy for years to come.
    To be fair given some of the allegations about Epstein and the reported previous attempt at suicide (or assault) it sure as hell raises some questions at the very least.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918
    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Suicide?

    There are a lot of powerful people suddenly breathing a lot easier today,.

    My money is on murder.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Have you totted up how many seats fall into each of those categories? Also, are you sure you should be putting this insight online? The Remain Alliance might not have realised that they need to avoid putting up candidates in Labour/Tory marginals that they have no hope of winning in the first place.
    They will put up candidates, the LDs say Corbyn Labour is not a Remain party and as bad as the Boris led Tory Party
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1159468556053909510?s=20
    I believe that the lib dems and greens genuinely want a second referendum
    But they don't want a genuine second referendum - they won't consider any referendum genuine until it kills off Brexit. Another vote confirming the decision to Leave wouldn't be accepted - both Swinson and Lucas have said so on the record.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    That's going to keep some conspiracy theorists busy for years to come.
    To be fair given some of the allegations about Epstein and the reported previous attempt at suicide (or assault) it sure as hell raises some questions at the very least.
    No no, I'm sure it's just the powerful and ultra-wealthy continuing their unbroken good luck streak
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,353
    Any pact by the Forces of Remain simply nullifies the impact when the Forces of Brexit reach a similar non-aggression understanding. It does mean the next election could be an artillery war between Leave and Remain - with Labour pounded in No-Man's Land by shells from both sides.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Stereotomy said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    That's going to keep some conspiracy theorists busy for years to come.
    To be fair given some of the allegations about Epstein and the reported previous attempt at suicide (or assault) it sure as hell raises some questions at the very least.
    No no, I'm sure it's just the powerful and ultra-wealthy continuing their unbroken good luck streak
    You mean a good child mol**ter is a dead child mol**ter !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Drutt said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
    It's not car related, Phil's in the clear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Some posters may prefer to look away.....

    https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1160188318774177792?s=20
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I don’t think the remain alliance will run candidates against labour MPs who openly and positively support a second referendum but may well run one against corbyn.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Have you totted up how many seats fall into each of those categories? Also, are you sure you should be putting this insight online? The Remain Alliance might not have realised that they need to avoid putting up candidates in Labour/Tory marginals that they have no hope of winning in the first place.
    They will put up candidates, the LDs say Corbyn Labour is not a Remain party and as bad as the Boris led Tory Party
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1159468556053909510?s=20
    I believe that the lib dems and greens genuinely want a second referendum
    But they don't want a genuine second referendum - they won't consider any referendum genuine until it kills off Brexit. Another vote confirming the decision to Leave wouldn't be accepted - both Swinson and Lucas have said so on the record.
    Yep. It's funny how all the sensible centrists here want to find a compromise on Brexit and talk about the importance of democratic conventions. Yet while Tories and Lib Dems go to the extremes on Brexit and both openly announce their intentions to subvert democracy (Boris ignoring parliament, Lib Dems holding a referendum whose result they plan to ignore), they'll still never countenance Labour.

    A more cynical man might think that sensible centrism is actually a paper-thin cover for an ideological devotion to protecting the status quo which has benefited them so much.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    surbiton19 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    That's going to keep some conspiracy theorists busy for years to come.
    To be fair given some of the allegations about Epstein and the reported previous attempt at suicide (or assault) it sure as hell raises some questions at the very least.
    No no, I'm sure it's just the powerful and ultra-wealthy continuing their unbroken good luck streak
    You mean a good child mol**ter is a dead child mol**ter !
    Er, what?
  • ExpatMalaysiaExpatMalaysia Posts: 28
    This is good news indeed. The problem comes in Lab-Con marginals. By running a Remain candidate against a ‘Brexit lite’ Labour candidate may hand Boris the victory. More so a dilemma when the sitting Labour MP is pro Remain. A classic example might be Rosie Duffield in Canterbury - a member of the people’s vote campaign with a slim majority over the Tories. Running a ‘UTR’ (Unite to Remain) candidate mighy be whole unproductive but she is running under Corbyns Labour who as we know is a BID (Brexiteer In Disguise). Oxford East (my own constituency) is another example. Annaleese Dodds (former MEP) has been sound on the Brexit issue, but again stands under Corbyns Labour Party. The LDs have nearly taken this seat in the past - so they run an aggressive campaign given their Oxfordshire success?

    A good start though for the Pro-Remain cause and surely a call for electoral reform after this mess has been cleared up.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    Any pact by the Forces of Remain simply nullifies the impact when the Forces of Brexit reach a similar non-aggression understanding. It does mean the next election could be an artillery war between Leave and Remain - with Labour pounded in No-Man's Land by shells from both sides.

    That "when" is extremely presumptive
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Andrew said:

    How does somebody on suicide watch manage to off themselves?

    Awfully convenient for plenty of powerful people.

    With a name like yours...………...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nichomar said:

    I don’t think the remain alliance will run candidates against labour MPs who openly and positively support a second referendum but may well run one against corbyn.

    A far fetched idea, but it would be one way to change the Labour Party leadership we haven't discussed much on here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
    Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,918
    Andrew said:

    How does somebody on suicide watch manage to off themselves?

    Awfully convenient for plenty of powerful people.

    I don't think anyone really believes he killed himself
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    Any pact by the Forces of Remain simply nullifies the impact when the Forces of Brexit reach a similar non-aggression understanding. It does mean the next election could be an artillery war between Leave and Remain - with Labour pounded in No-Man's Land by shells from both sides.

    I cannot see the Tories standing aside for TBP. The Tories are likley to contest every seat as they always do. TBP might stand aside in some seats but that has already been tried when UKIP did not contest seats and that did not deliver a majority for Leave in parliament. Leave is also like a giant tanker slowly sinking as the realisation of No Deal becomes apparent, it will be interesting to see if an election is held before or after Leave is consumed by waves...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:

    How does somebody on suicide watch manage to off themselves?

    Awfully convenient for plenty of powerful people.

    I don't think anyone really believes he killed himself
    I believe it was organised from an address on Finchley Road.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,450
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Suicide?

    There are a lot of powerful people suddenly breathing a lot easier today,.

    My money is on murder.
    If he had any sense you would have thought he would have left some information with his lawyers.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Don't think the LDs should be collaborating with nationalists. If they keep going at this rate they won't have any ideology left.

    I know some of you may be worried about where my GE vote will go. Well Ms Brisk is nearly at the age where you're officially allowed to vote tory so I might follow.

    UK OK
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    It is entirely possible that Johnson has concluded that the best option for the Tories is to narrowly lose an election called on the issue of Europe later this year. That leaves Labour with the opprobrium of either cancelling or botching Brexit. The Tories can then storm back in a few years with a promise to clear up the mess/really leave this time. It would explain why he hasn't actually hazarded releasing any details of what he would regard as an acceptable outcome of new negotiations with the EU.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    For this to work, they need to form an electoral pact with Labour. An electoral pact between the Lib Dems and Greens will make very little difference.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
    Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
    What? If you have a seat that's currently Labour, Lib Dem, Green, Tory, and you take away the Lib Dems, surely both Labour and Green are then less split?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Excellent header and excellent news. Remainers are starting to finally get their act together.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Sean_F said:

    For this to work, they need to form an electoral pact with Labour. An electoral pact between the Lib Dems and Greens will make very little difference.

    They could stretch the alliance to suggest they will not stand against “sound” Labour and even Tory MPs.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    MarqueeMark said:

    Any pact by the Forces of Remain simply nullifies the impact when the Forces of Brexit reach a similar non-aggression understanding. It does mean the next election could be an artillery war between Leave and Remain - with Labour pounded in No-Man's Land by shells from both sides.

    Nige is already running with the line that Boris has betrayed Brexit. I can't see him reaching out to the Tories at all. I suspect Nige is looking forward to a horrible No Deal crash out, so he can say that Boris mucked it all up because he didn't listen to him.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
    Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
    As it stands, Con 31, Unite 28, Lab 22, BXP 14. Once there is a UNite candidate in a Tory seat many Labour voters will switch. The Leave vote will b emore split.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Drutt said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
    It's not car related, Phil's in the clear.
    Hanged himself saying NYTimes.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    rottenborough said:

    Excellent header and excellent news. Remainers are starting to finally get their act together.

    Do you think it would make that much difference?

    Most voters know how to make their vote count already, and the idea seems to be catching on more and more without this kind of prompting. Recent Council by-elections seem to suggest as much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. 1000, et al, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ4
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited August 2019
    ExpatMalaysia said:

    This is good news indeed. The problem comes in Lab-Con marginals. By running a Remain candidate against a ‘Brexit lite’ Labour candidate may hand Boris the victory. More so a dilemma when the sitting Labour MP is pro Remain. A classic example might be Rosie Duffield in Canterbury - a member of the people’s vote campaign with a slim majority over the Tories. Running a ‘UTR’ (Unite to Remain) candidate mighy be whole unproductive but she is running under Corbyns Labour who as we know is a BID (Brexiteer In Disguise). Oxford East (my own constituency) is another example. Annaleese Dodds (former MEP) has been sound on the Brexit issue, but again stands under Corbyns Labour Party. The LDs have nearly taken this seat in the past - so they run an aggressive campaign given their Oxfordshire success?

    A good start though for the Pro-Remain cause and surely a call for electoral reform after this mess has been cleared up.

    I don't think they will stand against a declared pro Remain Labour candidate unless the LD is a close third or second.

    Basically, stand in every Tory seats unless a pro Remain Labour candidate needs less than 5% swing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1160194122285797377
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Recidivist said:

    It is entirely possible that Johnson has concluded that the best option for the Tories is to narrowly lose an election called on the issue of Europe later this year. That leaves Labour with the opprobrium of either cancelling or botching Brexit. The Tories can then storm back in a few years with a promise to clear up the mess/really leave this time. It would explain why he hasn't actually hazarded releasing any details of what he would regard as an acceptable outcome of new negotiations with the EU.

    I suspect BJ's role is to find a soft landing i.e. lose but keep 270 seats give or take 10. I dont nessarily think a future tory platform will then include Brexit as issues will have moved on. The PM is certainly following a core vote strategy with regard to Brexit at the moment. But if Labour, SNP and LD support a higher taxing administration i can see the Tories will find their priorities moving back towards tax cuts and reducing Govt spending. These things are cyclical!
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    SandyRentool said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
    Of course not - that would be racist. And at least they've got connections to their old homeland - they're allowed to be proud of that and certainly should not be banned.

    Ireland were of course neutral in WW2 so I think we should take a much harsher stance on the SF sympathisers.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    The_Taxman said:

    Recidivist said:

    It is entirely possible that Johnson has concluded that the best option for the Tories is to narrowly lose an election called on the issue of Europe later this year. That leaves Labour with the opprobrium of either cancelling or botching Brexit. The Tories can then storm back in a few years with a promise to clear up the mess/really leave this time. It would explain why he hasn't actually hazarded releasing any details of what he would regard as an acceptable outcome of new negotiations with the EU.

    I suspect BJ's role is to find a soft landing i.e. lose but keep 270 seats give or take 10. I dont nessarily think a future tory platform will then include Brexit as issues will have moved on. The PM is certainly following a core vote strategy with regard to Brexit at the moment. But if Labour, SNP and LD support a higher taxing administration i can see the Tories will find their priorities moving back towards tax cuts and reducing Govt spending. These things are cyclical!
    FPTP makes a soft landing difficult to achieve.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Personally I think a Tory vs Unite to Remain General Election would be an absolutely fantastic scenario.

    If we win: Remainers divide between Labour and Unite to Remain, Leavers flock to Tories, 1983 style landslide victory.

    If we lose: Leave Tories will be opposition, Unite to Remain victory - Labour obliterated, scourge of Marxism goes away.

    Either way I'd be happy.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rottenborough said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Drutt said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
    It's not car related, Phil's in the clear.
    Hanged himself saying NYTimes.
    I am not usually one for conspiracy theories but Epstein's case could have implicated a lot of rich and powerful people. Didn't the DC Madam conveniently conmit suicide too?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/the-remain-alliance-that-could-spoil-boris-johnsons-party/

    Is this correct ? The Alliance will only cover 100 seats. That will be sensible.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The_Taxman said:

    i can see the Tories will find their priorities moving back towards tax cuts and reducing Govt spending.

    They are proposing to spend billions propping up industries threatened by Brexit.

    Their core electoral pitch entirely queered by their current strategy...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Gabs2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Drutt said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
    It's not car related, Phil's in the clear.
    Hanged himself saying NYTimes.
    I am not usually one for conspiracy theories but Epstein's case could have implicated a lot of rich and powerful people. Didn't the DC Madam conveniently conmit suicide too?
    More importantly, the butler is also dead.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)

    Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...

    I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Recidivist said:

    It is entirely possible that Johnson has concluded that the best option for the Tories is to narrowly lose an election called on the issue of Europe later this year. That leaves Labour with the opprobrium of either cancelling or botching Brexit. The Tories can then storm back in a few years with a promise to clear up the mess/really leave this time. It would explain why he hasn't actually hazarded releasing any details of what he would regard as an acceptable outcome of new negotiations with the EU.

    I'm sorry, but do you mean Boris Johnson as in the Boris Johnson? You think he would put his party before him remaining in office for as many days as possible?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    basicbridge said:

    Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)

    Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...

    You could have said the same thing about Theresa May but Boris voted against. As to now, Boris might be doing anything. It's difficult to be sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    basicbridge said:

    Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)

    Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...

    I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.

    Not one person voted to leave without a deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
    Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
    As it stands, Con 31, Unite 28, Lab 22, BXP 14. Once there is a UNite candidate in a Tory seat many Labour voters will switch. The Leave vote will b emore split.
    Except most Tory seats and target seats currently have Labour second so that split anti Tory vote still helps the Tories win
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299

    I think I am going to throw up.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    rottenborough said:

    basicbridge said:

    Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)

    Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...

    I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.

    Not one person voted to leave without a deal.
    Didn't the Brexit Party just top the Euro poll on a no-deal stance?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299

    I think I am going to throw up.
    Spoof, surely?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Off topic: the middle of August and I've just fired up the central heating.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Spoof, surely?

    I think you mean spaff...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1160177925062320128
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rottenborough said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Drutt said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    eek said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. And US media reporting Epstein suicide.

    Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
    BBC confirms Epstein found dead in his cell.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49306032
    The BBC reporting US Media reports isn't exactly confirmation

    Mr Epstein, in his cell, with the whisky and revolver???

    One for Spooky Mulder to investigate perhaps?
    Does Prince Philip have an alibi?
    It's not car related, Phil's in the clear.
    Hanged himself saying NYTimes.
    I am not usually one for conspiracy theories but Epstein's case could have implicated a lot of rich and powerful people. Didn't the DC Madam conveniently conmit suicide too?
    More importantly, the butler is also dead.
    It is funny how this always happens. The DC Madam hung herself before her client list came out. 114 Home Office documents investigating high level paedophilia went missing.

    It's no wonder people vote for Trump and Corbyn and Brexit when the political elite let this sort of thing happen again and again.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
    Of course not - that would be racist. And at least they've got connections to their old homeland - they're allowed to be proud of that and certainly should not be banned.

    Ireland were of course neutral in WW2 so I think we should take a much harsher stance on the SF sympathisers.
    It's a mystery why folk think Brexiteers are obesessed by WWII.

    Presumably Japan being very much un-neutral means no Japanese products in Briskin Towers and solemn averting of the gaze when a Japanese meatball hoves into view.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2019
    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1160202943993393152
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:

    The_Taxman said:

    i can see the Tories will find their priorities moving back towards tax cuts and reducing Govt spending.

    They are proposing to spend billions propping up industries threatened by Brexit.

    Their core electoral pitch entirely queered by their current strategy...
    I dont support the Tories or BJ. I am just speculating how things might evolve. I think the irresponsible sudden release of cash is purely an electoral gambit! Its not sustainable in a no deal...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,262
    edited August 2019
    surbiton19 said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/the-remain-alliance-that-could-spoil-boris-johnsons-party/

    Is this correct ? The Alliance will only cover 100 seats. That will be sensible.

    The LDs will also likely stand down in favour of the Greens in Islington North (Green candidate Caroline Russell is a popular local councillor and the only non Labour councillor in Islington and came third in the seat in 2015 behind Labour and the Tories) to try and beat Corbyn apparently according to that article, this is as much an anti Corbyn Labour effort as anti Boris Tories effort so the LDs and Greens are clearly not going to stand down in favour of Labour in Labour v Tory marginal seats.



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The_Taxman said:

    I think the irresponsible sudden release of cash is purely an electoral gambit! Its not sustainable in a no deal...

    It is unquestionably an electoral gambit. My point is that it destroys their primary electoral argument.
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 387
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats

    Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
    Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
    Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.

    You might see this as a good thing.
    No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.

    Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-
    Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
    Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
    The idea that all LD voters will still vote LD when they are in open/covert alliance with Labour is entertaining and will certainly cost the LDs several of the seats they hold at present.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299

    I think I am going to throw up.
    I have ceased to be amazed at Brexit. It is the most ridiculous political disaster in my lifetime

    However, in view of our family stress over the last two days as my son in law placed his mother in dementia care, leaving her family home, while her husband is in hospital after 60 plus years of happy married life never to return home has put Brexit in context and as far as I am concerned whatever will be will be
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Theuniondivvie said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
    Of course not - that would be racist. And at least they've got connections to their old homeland - they're allowed to be proud of that and certainly should not be banned.

    Ireland were of course neutral in WW2 so I think we should take a much harsher stance on the SF sympathisers.
    It's a mystery why folk think Brexiteers are obesessed by WWII.

    Presumably Japan being very much un-neutral means no Japanese products in Briskin Towers and solemn averting of the gaze when a Japanese meatball hoves into view.
    Lol - I do like my Sony television and even had a Japanese car at one point without mentioning https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=The Last Great Console

    But I don't see any Japanese flags at pittodrie - so I think you're just trolling
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 387
    rottenborough said:

    basicbridge said:

    Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)

    Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...

    I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.

    Not one person voted to leave without a deal.
    No but many voted to Leave because they wanted to leave without a deal
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
    Of course not - that would be racist. And at least they've got connections to their old homeland - they're allowed to be proud of that and certainly should not be banned.

    Ireland were of course neutral in WW2 so I think we should take a much harsher stance on the SF sympathisers.
    It's a mystery why folk think Brexiteers are obesessed by WWII.

    Presumably Japan being very much un-neutral means no Japanese products in Briskin Towers and solemn averting of the gaze when a Japanese meatball hoves into view.
    Lol - I do like my Sony television and even had a Japanese car at one point without mentioning https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=The Last Great Console

    But I don't see any Japanese flags at pittodrie - so I think you're just trolling
    You'll be seing a wheen of them in the rugby world cup, might be a bit unreasonable to expect not to. Just think of them as our gallant WWI allies and fellow royalty worshippers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1160202943993393152

    It was sadly inevitable that in the end the EU would be blamed for the economic collapse we are about to inflict on ourselves.

    I mean the EU has been blamed by the right of the conservative for every single thing that is wrong with Britain for years.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Theuniondivvie said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    2 games in the SPL and it's already over.

    Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.

    If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.

    Do you have the same view when it comes to India and Pakistan fans at the cricket?
    Of course not - that would be racist. And at least they've got connections to their old homeland - they're allowed to be proud of that and certainly should not be banned.

    Ireland were of course neutral in WW2 so I think we should take a much harsher stance on the SF sympathisers.
    It's a mystery why folk think Brexiteers are obesessed by WWII.

    Presumably Japan being very much un-neutral means no Japanese products in Briskin Towers and solemn averting of the gaze when a Japanese meatball hoves into view.
    Lol - I do like my Sony television and even had a Japanese car at one point without mentioning https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=The Last Great Console

    But I don't see any Japanese flags at pittodrie - so I think you're just trolling
    You'll be seing a wheen of them in the rugby world cup, might be a bit unreasonable to expect not to. Just think of them as our gallant WWI allies and fellow royalty worshippers.
    Don't watch rugby - and any way I'm sure it won't be the Scottish fans waving them - unless I've very much out of sync with the world.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299

    I think I am going to throw up.
    Get over yourself.

    We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/DavidMapstone/status/1160190794755710976
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160198083852087299

    I think I am going to throw up.
    Get over yourself.

    We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
    Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
This discussion has been closed.