We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)
Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...
I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.
The site tends to ebb and flow - like you I find the unremitting flow of articles at the moment less than entertaining, or educational. For what it is worth I imagine the post-election scenario is likely to be uniformly bleak for all the parties in this LD hubub.
Any election will be determined by differential turn-out. I am not convinced that Farage is good at getting his vote out - Boris is perhaps better. Any collusion talks on the left will be prayed in evidence that the same has to happen on the Leave side.
I am at a loss as to how that can be done without some sort of a coupon for approved Leave candidates. The logic of that would be there would be seats where there were no Brexit or Tory candidates. An agreement on the Leave side that is accepted as such in the wider electorate will ensure a massive Leave victory. No such agreement and the Leave cause will have much greater difficulty.
An interesting if not wholly unexpected development. There are of course dozens of seats where no amount of "cross party collaboration" is going to matter - East Ham being one. I do think a combined LD/Green "Remain" has a sniff of taking second from the Conservatives and should save a deposit at the very least but Stephen Timms is unlikely to be prised loose from his hyper-marginal 40,000 majority so easily.
What it may emphasise is the unbalanced nature of tactical voting. We know Labour voters are far more willing to lend their to LD or Green candidates in seats where the Labour candidate has no chance than vice versa and Labour are going to get the worst end of that.
A further aside is the latest YouGov poll reduces the gap between Conservatives and Lib Dems from 35 points to just 10 which is a uniform swing of 12.5%. Add on Labour tactical votes and in some areas much higher swings are on offer (15-20% perhaps).
In 1997, as @HYUFD and others will no doubt remember, thr willingness of Labour voters to vote LD against a sitting Conservative delivered 30 LD gains but the willingness of LD voters to vote Labour against a sitting Conservative led to many more Labour gains and built the Blair landslide but there were seats where a possible LD gain was derailed by the Labour candidate coming from third and taking the seat.
The role of BP is also significant - back in 1997 Goldsmith's Referendum Party polled 2.7% and had only a minor impact. BP polling 10-12% nationally (much higher in LEAVE areas and much lower in REMAIN areas) will have a much bigger impact - again, not in East Ham but elsewhere.
As an aside, the Lab-LD swing is 15.5%. The degree to which Conservative voters would vote LD to beat a Labour candidate hasn't been tested. The geographic distribution of its vote gives Labour much more security against a low vote than would be enjoyed by the Conservatives.
Just for fun, transpose the latest YouGov polls for the Conservatives and LDs - the real poll gives a majority of 47 for Johnson but the transposed numbers turn out a 74 majority for Jo Swinson.
Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.
You might see this as a good thing.
No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.
Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll
Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
If the Remain alliance is wise it will will only stand against pro-Brexit Tories and Labour MPs. If they do that their impact could be considerably greater than you expect
Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)
Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...
I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.
The site tends to ebb and flow - like you I find the unremitting flow of articles at the moment less than entertaining, or educational. For what it is worth I imagine the post-election scenario is likely to be uniformly bleak for all the parties in this LD hubub.
Any election will be determined by differential turn-out. I am not convinced that Farage is good at getting his vote out - Boris is perhaps better. Any collusion talks on the left will be prayed in evidence that the same has to happen on the Leave side.
I am at a loss as to how that can be done without some sort of a coupon for approved Leave candidates. The logic of that would be there would be seats where there were no Brexit or Tory candidates. An agreement on the Leave side that is accepted as such in the wider electorate will ensure a massive Leave victory. No such agreement and the Leave cause will have much greater difficulty.
There's nothing to stop you or Basicbridge or anyone else supportive of the Government putting a piece forward for inclusion by OGH. Grumbling and whinging on the sidelines that the site doesn't represent your views is typical right-wing snowflake behaviour.
The old adage the only pieces more boring than those hostile to the Government are those supporting the Government is there to be tested.
Why not explain why a bet on a Conservative majority at the next GE (currently rated as a 31% probability by Baxter) is a good bet. Currently 7/4 with Bet365 yet the Conservatives are 10 points ahead - surely this is free money?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
Well I doubt Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton will be too heartbroken this afternoon, he takes a lot of secrets to the grave
Donald Trump was chummy with Epstein too, amongst other paedophiles such as John Casablancas. Casablancas ran the Elite Modeling Agency where he signed Ivanka Trump.
Though it may well be that the death of Epstein like Saville allows the truth out rather than conceals it.
Is this a political betting site or is it a party political broadcast on behalf of the 'Remain' Party (aka the Lib Dems)
Here's a thought guys - Boris might actually be doing what the majority of the population voted for in a referendum. How about that for a thought...
I note also considerable hedging of bets by Smithson.
The site tends to ebb and flow - like you I find the unremitting flow of articles at the moment less than entertaining, or educational. For what it is worth I imagine the post-election scenario is likely to be uniformly bleak for all the parties in this LD hubub.
Any election will be determined by differential turn-out. I am not convinced that Farage is good at getting his vote out - Boris is perhaps better. Any collusion talks on the left will be prayed in evidence that the same has to happen on the Leave side.
I am at a loss as to how that can be done without some sort of a coupon for approved Leave candidates. The logic of that would be there would be seats where there were no Brexit or Tory candidates. An agreement on the Leave side that is accepted as such in the wider electorate will ensure a massive Leave victory. No such agreement and the Leave cause will have much greater difficulty.
There's nothing to stop you or Basicbridge or anyone else supportive of the Government putting a piece forward for inclusion by OGH. Grumbling and whinging on the sidelines that the site doesn't represent your views is typical right-wing snowflake behaviour.
The old adage the only pieces more boring than those hostile to the Government are those supporting the Government is there to be tested.
Why not explain why a bet on a Conservative majority at the next GE (currently rated as a 31% probability by Baxter) is a good bet. Currently 7/4 with Bet365 yet the Conservatives are 10 points ahead - surely this is free money?
With Bet365 rating it a 36.36pc chance as opposed to Baxter's 31pc surely that is the opposite of a value bet???
For this to work, they need to form an electoral pact with Labour. An electoral pact between the Lib Dems and Greens will make very little difference.
Indeed - and that will certainly not happen. Moreover, voters for particular parties cannot be moved around like pieces on a chessboard at the dictat of party leaders. Many Green voters will decline to vote LibDem or Plaid regardless. The campaign also assumes that people are far more obsessed with Remain and Leave than is likely to be the case.
Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.
You might see this as a good thing.
No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.
Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll
Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
The idea that all LD voters will still vote LD when they are in open/covert alliance with Labour is entertaining and will certainly cost the LDs several of the seats they hold at present.
And it could also cost Labour a few seats as well.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Blair got less votes than Major in 92 and won only 43.2pc of the vote, so no.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
The coin could have a picture of my mum on it, if it's celebrating the unholy load of old bollocks that is Brexit I will still be defacing every one I come across.
A pact between the LDs and the Greens in Rees-Mogg's seat should certainly assure the pro-Remain unity candidate of a solid third place, because those two parties notched up all of 10.6% between them at the last election.
Sometimes the uselessness of the Remainers is almost as maddening as the stupidity of the Leavers.
A pact between the LDs and the Greens in Rees-Mogg's seat should certainly assure the pro-Remain unity candidate of a solid third place, because those two parties notched up all of 10.6% between them at the last election.
Sometimes the uselessness of the Remainers is almost as maddening as the stupidity of the Leavers.
Lib Dems did well in Nth Somerset in the Locals and in Euros as I recall.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
The coin could have a picture of my mum on it, if it's celebrating the unholy load of old bollocks that is Brexit I will still be defacing every one I come across.
The thing is that I could see a SNP/Lib alliance in the lab/tory held seats could do a lot of damage
There is one key problem with that: in 100% of lab/tory held seats, the SNP are in second place. Are you asking the SLDs to stand aside in all those 20 seats? I’m sure the SNP would be delighted, but Rennie would tell you to f off.
Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.
You might see this as a good thing.
No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.
Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll
Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
If the Remain alliance is wise it will will only stand against pro-Brexit Tories and Labour MPs. If they do that their impact could be considerably greater than you expect
True, however I do not think that will be the case. Partisanship will overcome any remain alliance, splitting the vote at a GE. Giving Johnson a healthy majority.
Back to the topic, arrangements like this are a bit silly. Gaming the system to gain a short term advantage isn't especially productive. You really need to win the argument if you want to win elections.
But I guess it can't do any harm. And right now with opinion so evenly balanced it just might make a difference.
The thing is that I could see a SNP/Lib alliance in the lab/tory held seats could do a lot of damage
There is one key problem with that: in 100% of lab/tory held seats, the SNP are in second place. Are you asking the SLDs to stand aside in all those 20 seats? I’m sure the SNP would be delighted, but Rennie would tell you to f off.
The LDs can have their fun with the little party of wales - but a pact with the SNP would surely be the death of them.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
It’s not a message many associate Brexit with. And for a good half the population, it’s taking the piss.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
The coin could have a picture of my mum on it, if it's celebrating the unholy load of old bollocks that is Brexit I will still be defacing every one I come across.
That's rather pathetic.
I'll enjoy it. You'll have your pathetic English nationalist act of self harm to enjoy, you can't begrudge me my small acts of catharsis.
Back to the topic, arrangements like this are a bit silly. Gaming the system to gain a short term advantage isn't especially productive. You really need to win the argument if you want to win elections...
The two major parties have been gaming the system for the best part of a century.
A pact between the LDs and the Greens in Rees-Mogg's seat should certainly assure the pro-Remain unity candidate of a solid third place, because those two parties notched up all of 10.6% between them at the last election.
Sometimes the uselessness of the Remainers is almost as maddening as the stupidity of the Leavers.
Lib Dems did well in Nth Somerset in the Locals and in Euros as I recall.
Perhaps they might break through into second place, but really suggesting they could win from third place and 8.3% is not good expectation management.
I know right? Being a member of the left liberal elite I store mine up, and when I have enough I melt them down and use the molten alloy to produce a work of avant-garde sculpture.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
You're getting all that out of a commemorative coin for Brexit?
With Bet365 rating it a 36.36pc chance as opposed to Baxter's 31pc surely that is the opposite of a value bet???
Baxter isn't a bookmaker - Bet365 may not be very good bookmakers but they will accommodate you at 7/4. If you are an exchange player, you can back a Conservative overall majority at 3.05 (£62 in so far) with Betfair.
The experience of 2017 hangs heavy on these markets - the Conservatives were 1/7 to win an overall majority last time and that ended well for those laying off the bet.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
The Brexit 50p sounds like a press release more than a misjudgement. What is the lead time on new coins?
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
If society and institutions are to be reshaped in the image of "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" then I am OK with that.
With Bet365 rating it a 36.36pc chance as opposed to Baxter's 31pc surely that is the opposite of a value bet???
Baxter isn't a bookmaker - Bet365 may not be very good bookmakers but they will accommodate you at 7/4. If you are an exchange player, you can back a Conservative overall majority at 3.05 (£62 in so far) with Betfair.
The experience of 2017 hangs heavy on these markets - the Conservatives were 1/7 to win an overall majority last time and that ended well for those laying off the bet.
Yes I know what baxter is - it's just that if it's getting used for reference then it's not a value bet.
Bet365 are very good bookmakers in my experience - almost always offering better prices than the traditionals.
Ms Brisk made money on 2017 by getting the tory seat range correct on betfair.
As to the bet in question - I do not know if it's value or not.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
I say again, I don't believe you're as much of a moron as you pretend to be. No one could be.
That's not very nice!
Hmm. Remember the old story about the MP who had to retract his statement that half the Cabinet were asses?
Wow! If true, that’s pretty price sensitive information.
I do hope those in government (civil servants and Ministers and all their aides) have been told of their obligations in regard to such information. It would be most unfortunate - not to mention criminal, wouldn’t it, if anyone were to use that information to do some timely trading.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
If society and institutions are to be reshaped in the image of "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" then I am OK with that.
Considering the Leavers' agreed line is that No Deal will screw the EU just as much, if not more, than us, then the 'prosperity and friendship with all nations' bit is downright Orwellian.
Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.
You might see this as a good thing.
No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.
Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll
Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
If the Remain alliance is wise it will will only stand against pro-Brexit Tories and Labour MPs. If they do that their impact could be considerably greater than you expect
It won't be in Labour v Tory marginal seats, it will just let the Tories win by splitting the centre left anti Tory vote unless the LDs get a clear lead over Labour in the national polls as the main centre left alternative to the Tories.
The Remain Alliance and LDs are quite clear they will not do any pacts with Labour while Corbyn is leader so that means they will stand a LD or Green candidate in every seat where the Tories and Labour comprised the top 2 parties in 2017, they will only ensure a Green candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v LD marginal where the LDs are better placed and a LD candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v Green or Plaid seat where the Greens or Plaid are better placed
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
If society and institutions are to be reshaped in the image of "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" then I am OK with that.
Considering the Leavers' agreed line is that No Deal will screw the EU just as much, if not more, than us, then the 'prosperity' and 'friendship with all nations' bit is downright Orwellian.
Weirdly it seems to be our close neighbour and erstwhile constituent part, Ireland, that they most want to see stuffed up the hooha.
'Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations except the Murphys'
Not really as as long as this Remain alliance excludes Labour it will split the centre left vote in Tory Labour marginal seats enabling the Tory candidate to win and the Tories to gain Labour Leave seats even if it sees the LDs win a few more Tory LD marginal seats
Agreed B Johnson wins big as it stands with Lab @ Lib Dems on 20% .
Yes, Boris has stopped most of the leakage of Tory voters to the Brexit Party but Corbyn Labour is still leaking voters to the LDs
Bozo has caused a cascade of voters switching from Tory to LibDem. Plus more than a trickle of party members from the One Nation wing jumping ship.
You might see this as a good thing.
No, Yougov this week had Boris retaining 68% of the 2017 Tory vote, with 20% going to the Brexit Party and 9% to the LDs.
Corbyn is only retaining 53% of the 2017 Labour vote in the same poll
Even in that poll you will have to put the LDs and the Greens together with a little sprinkling from Labour in Tory seats. That tells me the Unite to Remain will also be around 30%.
Splitting the anti Tory vote with Labour under FPTP and ensuring the Tories win as they are on 31% nationwide in the same poll.
If the Remain alliance is wise it will will only stand against pro-Brexit Tories and Labour MPs. If they do that their impact could be considerably greater than you expect
It won't be in Labour v Tory marginal seats, it will just let the Tories win by splitting the centre left anti Tory vote unless the LDs get a clear lead over Labour in the national polls as the main centre left alternative to the Tories.
The Remain Alliance and LDs are quite clear they will not do any pacts with Labour while Corbyn is leader so that means they will stand a LD or Green candidate in every seat where the Tories and Labour comprised the top 2 parties in 2017, they will only ensure a Green candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v LD marginal where the LDs are better placed and a LD candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v Green or Plaid seat where the Greens or Plaid are better placed
Back to the topic, arrangements like this are a bit silly. Gaming the system to gain a short term advantage isn't especially productive. You really need to win the argument if you want to win elections.
But I guess it can't do any harm. And right now with opinion so evenly balanced it just might make a difference.
If Remainers vote seat by seat for whichever party is best placed to take it and is not Con or BP then Corbyn is off to the palace and Johnson can get back to just being Boris Johnson and we will not be partaking of Brexit.
But that is 'FIFA Election 19' with graphics like you've never seen rather than a real flesh & blood UK general election.
re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions. Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions. Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
No, whichever of Plaid or the LDs win Ceredigion will still have an anti Brexit Remainer MP so no need for the Remain Alliance there
re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions. Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
It's not 'hard' to see it. It's 'impossible.'
However, since one of the two will win it doesn't matter.
To be candid, I'm struggling to think of any seats in Wales where it might make a difference. Anglesey possibly, but that's a funny seat and doesn't conform to classic norms. Cardiff Central might be a better bet, but that's a Lib Dem target. The problem is that there is only Anglesey where Plaid have any chance of gaining anything and in that seat the LD vote is negligible, while in Montgomeryshire or Cardiff Central Plaid's endorsement would make no difference whatsoever.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
It’s nothing to celebrate its worth 15% less than it used to and they need to print a damn site more than 50p’s to get themselves out of the coming mess
I know right? Being a member of the left liberal elite I store mine up, and when I have enough I melt them down and use the molten alloy to produce a work of avant-garde sculpture.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is a "crushing and humiliating" message then you have my sympathy suck it up, buttercup.
If society and institutions are to be reshaped in the image of "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" then I am OK with that.
Considering the Leavers' agreed line is that No Deal will screw the EU just as much, if not more, than us, then the 'prosperity' and 'friendship with all nations' bit is downright Orwellian.
Weirdly it seems to be our close neighbour and erstwhile constituent part, Ireland, that they most want to see stuffed up the hooha.
'Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations except the Murphys'
Well, that's one interpretation of the EU's negotiating stance....
I'm currently in the Department of Motor Vehicles, renewing my driving license. It is the greatest social leveller. You can be Tim Cook, or Michael Bloomberg, or the most humble undocumented migrant, and you'll be waiting on the same queue, in the same uncomfortable chairs.
I'm currently in the Department of Motor Vehicles, renewing my driving license. It is the greatest social leveller. You can be Tim Cook, or Michael Bloomberg, or the most humble undocumented migrant, and you'll be waiting on the same queue, in the same uncomfortable chairs.
The Brexit 50p feels like a misjudgement - Leavers stamping their authority on the present as they crush and humiliate those on the losing side. Next they'll be proposing a national holiday on the anniversary of Boris's succession. Presumably this is all part of Cummings's plan to reshape society and its institutions in his own image.
You mean Smirky McSmirkface as Marina Hyde calls him?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
Well, you could start with the fact that 48% of the public don't agree with what you are celebrating on their national coinage.
I couldn't care less. 48% of the country may not like Jemima Puddle-duck.
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
So was, say, the election of Blair in 1997. Should he have had a coin ?
Maybe. Certainly many of his events and policies could as this isn't about an individual it is a nice commemorative message.
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
The coin could have a picture of my mum on it, if it's celebrating the unholy load of old bollocks that is Brexit I will still be defacing every one I come across.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
It’s nothing to celebrate its worth 15% less than it used to and they need to print a damn site more than 50p’s to get themselves out of the coming mess
I think we now have it from the mouth of one of the Four Horsemen of Brexit that the dollar value of this coin will soon be worth approximately 31p compared with its pre-referendum value - not allowing for the effect of inflation!
re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions. Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
It's not 'hard' to see it. It's 'impossible.'
When Ben Lake was first chosen as PPC, I read reports that Plaid did not expect him to win, but he was chosen mainly to raise his profile so that he could stand as an assembly candidate for Ceredigion in 2021, (replacing Plaid's Elin Jones if she decided to retire). Perhaps he might agree to not run for Parliament, if the Libs agreed not to run against him in 2021?
I'm currently in the Department of Motor Vehicles, renewing my driving license. It is the greatest social leveller. You can be Tim Cook, or Michael Bloomberg, or the most humble undocumented migrant, and you'll be waiting on the same queue, in the same uncomfortable chairs.
Reassuring that you still say 'queue' and not 'line'.
Don't think the LDs should be collaborating with nationalists. If they keep going at this rate they won't have any ideology left.
I know some of you may be worried about where my GE vote will go. Well Ms Brisk is nearly at the age where you're officially allowed to vote tory so I might follow.
UK OK
SNP will not dirty their hands by doing any deal with the lying cheating Lib Dems.
We have 50p coins for everything now and I know lots of people who love to collect them whether it be the Olympics, Peter Rabbit or whatever else you can think of. Why not this?
It’s nothing to celebrate its worth 15% less than it used to and they need to print a damn site more than 50p’s to get themselves out of the coming mess
I think we now have it from the mouth of one of the Four Horsemen of Brexit that the dollar value of this coin will soon be worth approximately 31p compared with its pre-referendum value - not allowing for the effect of inflation!
Well it’s a great way to bring the country together. I suggest these new 50 p coins are only legal tender in weatherspoons pubs to offset the fact he’s pissed off 48% of his customer base
re "when it is hoped that the three parties will be able to work out which will stand in each of the 30 Welsh constituencies"
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions. Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
It's not 'hard' to see it. It's 'impossible.'
When Ben Lake was first chosen as PPC, I read reports that Plaid did not expect him to win, but he was chosen mainly to raise his profile so that he could stand as an assembly candidate for Ceredigion in 2021, (replacing Plaid's Elin Jones if she decided to retire). Perhaps he might agree to not run for Parliament, if the Libs agreed not to run against him in 2021?
It's 'stand'. And if he didn't stand under such circumstances a huge proportion of his vote would go Labour, not Liberal Democrat.
But there is no chance of it. How on earth would Plaid explain not contesting a seat they currently hold?
Even if this story is correct, which there is good reason to doubt, it doesn't apply in Wales.
Don't think the LDs should be collaborating with nationalists. If they keep going at this rate they won't have any ideology left.
I know some of you may be worried about where my GE vote will go. Well Ms Brisk is nearly at the age where you're officially allowed to vote tory so I might follow.
UK OK
SNP will not dirty their hands by doing any deal with the lying cheating Lib Dems.
Why are they allowed to wave the tricolour (the flag of a foreign power) at Celtic park - shouldn't there be some sort of law against this sort of thing.
If they love Ireland so much they should bugger off there and take their independence voting instincts with them.
A pact between the LDs and the Greens in Rees-Mogg's seat should certainly assure the pro-Remain unity candidate of a solid third place, because those two parties notched up all of 10.6% between them at the last election.
Sometimes the uselessness of the Remainers is almost as maddening as the stupidity of the Leavers.
Lib Dems did well in Nth Somerset in the Locals and in Euros as I recall.
Perhaps they might break through into second place, but really suggesting they could win from third place and 8.3% is not good expectation management.
That was then when the LDs finished on 7%. They are now on 20% while the Tories have slipped 13%. LAB is now an irrelevance.
Comments
This is a moment in our countries history. If people don't want this coin they don't have to collect it.
Any election will be determined by differential turn-out. I am not convinced that Farage is good at getting his vote out - Boris is perhaps better. Any collusion talks on the left will be prayed in evidence that the same has to happen on the Leave side.
I am at a loss as to how that can be done without some sort of a coupon for approved Leave candidates. The logic of that would be there would be seats where there were no Brexit or Tory candidates. An agreement on the Leave side that is accepted as such in the wider electorate will ensure a massive Leave victory. No such agreement and the Leave cause will have much greater difficulty.
An interesting if not wholly unexpected development. There are of course dozens of seats where no amount of "cross party collaboration" is going to matter - East Ham being one. I do think a combined LD/Green "Remain" has a sniff of taking second from the Conservatives and should save a deposit at the very least but Stephen Timms is unlikely to be prised loose from his hyper-marginal 40,000 majority so easily.
What it may emphasise is the unbalanced nature of tactical voting. We know Labour voters are far more willing to lend their to LD or Green candidates in seats where the Labour candidate has no chance than vice versa and Labour are going to get the worst end of that.
A further aside is the latest YouGov poll reduces the gap between Conservatives and Lib Dems from 35 points to just 10 which is a uniform swing of 12.5%. Add on Labour tactical votes and in some areas much higher swings are on offer (15-20% perhaps).
In 1997, as @HYUFD and others will no doubt remember, thr willingness of Labour voters to vote LD against a sitting Conservative delivered 30 LD gains but the willingness of LD voters to vote Labour against a sitting Conservative led to many more Labour gains and built the Blair landslide but there were seats where a possible LD gain was derailed by the Labour candidate coming from third and taking the seat.
The role of BP is also significant - back in 1997 Goldsmith's Referendum Party polled 2.7% and had only a minor impact. BP polling 10-12% nationally (much higher in LEAVE areas and much lower in REMAIN areas) will have a much bigger impact - again, not in East Ham but elsewhere.
As an aside, the Lab-LD swing is 15.5%. The degree to which Conservative voters would vote LD to beat a Labour candidate hasn't been tested. The geographic distribution of its vote gives Labour much more security against a low vote than would be enjoyed by the Conservatives.
Just for fun, transpose the latest YouGov polls for the Conservatives and LDs - the real poll gives a majority of 47 for Johnson but the transposed numbers turn out a 74 majority for Jo Swinson.
The EU ones might be especially valuable as I can see pro-EU types deliberately binning them and suchlike, reducing the number in circulation.
And if we return, the same could happen with anti-EU types.
The old adage the only pieces more boring than those hostile to the Government are those supporting the Government is there to be tested.
Why not explain why a bet on a Conservative majority at the next GE (currently rated as a 31% probability by Baxter) is a good bet. Currently 7/4 with Bet365 yet the Conservatives are 10 points ahead - surely this is free money?
50p coins have a modern quisling feel that rather clashes with the spirit of the project.
Though it may well be that the death of Epstein like Saville allows the truth out rather than conceals it.
Should he have had a coin ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election
If you think "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" is not a message you want to be associated with then so be it.
Sometimes the uselessness of the Remainers is almost as maddening as the stupidity of the Leavers.
Aston Villa 10
Draw 5.5
We should be backing Tottenham at that price shouldn't we?
The fall out will be spectacular when it happens!
Partisanship will overcome any remain alliance, splitting the vote at a GE.
Giving Johnson a healthy majority.
But I guess it can't do any harm. And right now with opinion so evenly balanced it just might make a difference.
Yes, I was taking the piss.
And for a good half the population, it’s taking the piss.
http://deevybee.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-day-out-at-10-downing-street.html
Remember every true Scot-
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
If you're English there's an alternative hashtag-
#Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
As long as you're making the switch from Tennents - then Guinness is begrudgingly allowed.
The experience of 2017 hangs heavy on these markets - the Conservatives were 1/7 to win an overall majority last time and that ended well for those laying off the bet.
It is bloody expensive, in York City centre.
If society and institutions are to be reshaped in the image of "peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations" then I am OK with that.
Bet365 are very good bookmakers in my experience - almost always offering better prices than the traditionals.
Ms Brisk made money on 2017 by getting the tory seat range correct on betfair.
As to the bet in question - I do not know if it's value or not.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1160189228719968257?s=20
Sounds like a John Lennon song.
Does it include nations we’re at war with?
I do hope those in government (civil servants and Ministers and all their aides) have been told of their obligations in regard to such information. It would be most unfortunate - not to mention criminal, wouldn’t it, if anyone were to use that information to do some timely trading.
You know the game right - we're trying to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks.
It should include the word 'Sustainability'.
The Remain Alliance and LDs are quite clear they will not do any pacts with Labour while Corbyn is leader so that means they will stand a LD or Green candidate in every seat where the Tories and Labour comprised the top 2 parties in 2017, they will only ensure a Green candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v LD marginal where the LDs are better placed and a LD candidate does not stand in a Tory or Labour v Green or Plaid seat where the Greens or Plaid are better placed
The Black Death. Motto: Health, Wealth and Happiness!
The Great Stink of London. Motto: That which we call a Rose ...
The Dark Ages. Motto: Give Us Time, We're Working On It ...
'Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations except the Murphys'
But that is 'FIFA Election 19' with graphics like you've never seen rather than a real flesh & blood UK general election.
Ceredigion seems a huge sticking point in these discussions.
Plaid's Ben Lake beat the (sitting) Liberal MP Mark Williams by just 104 votes in 2017, and Mark Williams was chosen in March to be the Liberal PPC for Ceredigion for the next election.
Its possible they might divi up the other 29 seats, but its hard to see either Ben Lake or Mark Williams standing aside for the other.
However, since one of the two will win it doesn't matter.
To be candid, I'm struggling to think of any seats in Wales where it might make a difference. Anglesey possibly, but that's a funny seat and doesn't conform to classic norms. Cardiff Central might be a better bet, but that's a Lib Dem target. The problem is that there is only Anglesey where Plaid have any chance of gaining anything and in that seat the LD vote is negligible, while in Montgomeryshire or Cardiff Central Plaid's endorsement would make no difference whatsoever.
PS a must read for anyone who missed it..........
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/09/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-brexit
Millennial snowflakes might whinge a bit but, you know, cry me a river.
But there is no chance of it. How on earth would Plaid explain not contesting a seat they currently hold?
Even if this story is correct, which there is good reason to doubt, it doesn't apply in Wales.
Not sure what that means - was 30 a mistake or will they fight each other in 10 seats?