politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a
Comments
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Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.0 -
Wait until mid October, and real panic has set in. Emergency leaflets have been sent out, everything.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nabavi, perhaps.
But the contempt of u-turning would be a different order of magnitude to the consequences of leaving with no deal.
Boris Johnson's concern is Boris Johnson. What burnishes his destined Churchillian legacy, and what tarnishes it?
If the UK leaves and flourishes he'll claim to be Moses reborn. If we leave and flounder, his legacy is a wreckage.
He wants to be liked. An admirable trait, in a spaniel. Or a whore. But not in a Prime Minister.
So, where does a desire to be liked lead an egocentric buffoon?
Blame Gove and Cummings for their failure, and for misleading him in 2016.
Reverse ferret, and hope to be loved for saving the UK from the Crisis.
It probably won't work, because he was largely the cause of the crisis, but it seems his best bet.0 -
He is evidently looking in the mirror.Alanbrooke said:
he's laughing in your face.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
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"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.0 -
Just to let you know Brexit has not happened yet. This is just a run up to it. Don't worry starting Oct 1, we are going to start stockpiling again !DavidL said:I don't think that there is any question that the continuing uncertainty that our political idiots wished upon the country by delaying Brexit from March to October has contributed to the disappointing GDP figures but the Q1 figures were somewhat flattered by stockbuilding and some run down of that was inevitable.
The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.
What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.
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Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.Alanbrooke said:
Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.Alanbrooke said:
so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?OnlyLivingBoy said:Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.
Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.0 -
Probably which means we are very likely to avoid a technical recession. Doesn't tell us a whole lot about the underlying picture though which is not great.surbiton19 said:
Just to let you know Brexit has not happened yet. This is just a run up to it. Don't worry starting Oct 1, we are going to start stockpiling again !DavidL said:I don't think that there is any question that the continuing uncertainty that our political idiots wished upon the country by delaying Brexit from March to October has contributed to the disappointing GDP figures but the Q1 figures were somewhat flattered by stockbuilding and some run down of that was inevitable.
The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.
What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.0 -
The reason that they have no traction is because the only justification for Brexit is "We want it come hell or high water".OnlyLivingBoy said:
On PB some time today, I am sure. None of their other attack lines seem to have any traction.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
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No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.0 -
Mr. Romford, that's a plausible turn of events.0
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Unfortunate typo...Philip_Thompson said:breaks off the economy.
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Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...Brom said:
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.0 -
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The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.Scott_P said:
High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....1 -
Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.Nigelb said:
Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?Philip_Thompson said:
May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?MarqueeMark said:
As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.matthiasfromhamburg said:
With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.AlastairMeeks said:If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.0 -
I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.Alanbrooke said:
Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.0 -
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.0 -
Youre rather missing the fact that a lot of damage has already been done. The UK political system is breaking down. That;s been caused by people not implementing a democratic vote, likewise the slowdown in investment is because the UK has no definable environment in which investment decisions can be made.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
And as for staying in, all Ive seen to date has been a focus on not leaving, there is absolutely zero thought as to what a UK still in the UK will look like. It simply wont be the same as pre 2016.1 -
Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.Beibheirli_C said:
Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...Brom said:
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.0 -
Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.0 -
Don't think so.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal will absolutely hammer services.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.Alanbrooke said:
Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.OnlyLivingBoy said:Alanbrooke said:OnlyLivingBoy said:Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.
Firstly, the import/export component of services is more modest than other sectors.
Secondly, many areas, such as law, are strong internationally and not dependent on our membership of the EU.
Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it.
Of course services are not immune to the general health of the economy and that is sub-optimal but on balance the effects, if any, in services should be less pronounced than in manufacturing or farming.0 -
UK growth -0.2%MarqueeMark said:
The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.Scott_P said:
High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....
Euro Area growth +0.2%.
Their corpse looks more alive than ours.0 -
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Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.0 -
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You may have noticed that I post rarely these days. That is because I am busy enjoying my Brexit-proof life. Whilst I regard Brexit as a supreme act of folly and self-harm, it is a popcorn show as far as I am concerned.Brom said:
Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.Beibheirli_C said:
Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...Brom said:
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
I one way, I do hope for a No Deal Brexit just to see if Brexiteers will stop blaming everyone but themselves, but it is more of a whim than a burning, fanatical desire
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It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.Alanbrooke said:
Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.0 -
The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.0 -
I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.
As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,0 -
Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.Nigelb said:
Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?Philip_Thompson said:
May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?MarqueeMark said:
As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.matthiasfromhamburg said:
With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.AlastairMeeks said:If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.0 -
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.0 -
The recession was forecast for 2016 after the vote. We are now in 2019 and technically not actually in a recession. Eventually a recession will come along as they always do but thats just the economic cycle. We had our last downturn 10 years ago, were due another one some time soon.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.0 -
Yes, there might be a case for giving children as young as 16 (to use the Guardian's phrase) the vote.kamski said:
I think in this case you're being a bit silly.Richard_Nabavi said:O/T: Compare and contrast the Guardian's terminology, depending on which line they are pushing:
"children as young as 16"
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/aug/08/schoolchildren-in-china-work-overnight-to-produce-amazon-alexa-devices
"citizens aged 16 and 17"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-voting-age-time-to-lower-it-to-16
Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.
Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.0 -
The Marxist and Kipper entryists are demonstrating their "talent" at running things - i.e. zero.Alanbrooke said:
Youre rather missing the fact that a lot of damage has already been done. The UK political system is breaking down. That;s been caused by people not implementing a democratic vote, likewise the slowdown in investment is because the UK has no definable environment in which investment decisions can be made.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
No it will not be the same. We have proven beyond all doubt that our politicians are assh*les.Alanbrooke said:And as for staying in, all Ive seen to date has been a focus on not leaving, there is absolutely zero thought as to what a UK still in the UK will look like. It simply wont be the same as pre 2016.
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How come Germany is expected to show negative Q2 growth and we are expected to outperform the country at the heart of the Eurozone?OnlyLivingBoy said:
UK growth -0.2%MarqueeMark said:
The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.Scott_P said:
High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....
Euro Area growth +0.2%.
Their corpse looks more alive than ours.1 -
Remainers have the pwoer to pass legislation in the HoC. They are not powerless.viewcode said:
The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.0 -
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If you deny the possibility of warming, then it follows you should get snowflakesTheuniondivvie said:Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
0 -
lolTOPPING said:
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ag cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being rempened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
shouldnt you be asking George Osborne that ? he made the claims.0 -
See my response to Brom. Recessions don't happen in a week and a half. They evolve and our decision to leave (the vote) set in motion the series of events that has resulted in the current situation. Which as you rightly say is not, technically, a recession. Certainly doesn't feel like boom though.Alanbrooke said:
The recession was forecast for 2016 after the vote. We are now in 2019 and technically not actually in a recession. Eventually a recession will come along as they always do but thats just the economic cycle. We had our last downturn 10 years ago, were due another one some time soon.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.0 -
Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.TOPPING said:
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.0 -
I take your general point but I would point out that UK goods exports are about 45% higher than they were at the turn of the millennium, in real terms. So as declines go it's quite a positive one.Alanbrooke said:
It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.Alanbrooke said:
Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.0 -
Enough...
Later peeps
0 -
funny how politicians didnt give a toss then but now they do.Scott_P said:0 -
That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.Philip_Thompson said:The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
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0
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Love the last sentence.viewcode said:
That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.Philip_Thompson said:The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
0 -
Yesterday you were lamenting that Brexit had halved one of your pensions but today you're Brexit proof. Have you sacked your financial adviser?Beibheirli_C said:
You may have noticed that I post rarely these days. That is because I am busy enjoying my Brexit-proof life. Whilst I regard Brexit as a supreme act of folly and self-harm, it is a popcorn show as far as I am concerned.Brom said:
Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.Beibheirli_C said:
Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...Brom said:
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
I one way, I do hope for a No Deal Brexit just to see if Brexiteers will stop blaming everyone but themselves, but it is more of a whim than a burning, fanatical desire0 -
We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.Brom said:
Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.TOPPING said:
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.0 -
As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?Scott_P said:0 -
Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.Scott_P said:0 -
The certainly have the power to talk about legislation. They "call for" things frequently, or "slam" or "destroy" things a lot. They are very good at posting or typing or talking. The actual "doing", however, seems to escape them...Alanbrooke said:
Remainers have the pwoer to pass legislation in the HoC. They are not powerless.viewcode said:
The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
0 -
The novelty is trying a new coalition excluding the middle classes (or at least those of them who work, aren't independently wealthy, and actually live in the UK)viewcode said:
That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.Philip_Thompson said:The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
0 -
Fair point.IanB2 said:
The novelty is trying a new coalition excluding the middle classes (or at least those of them who work, aren't independently wealthy, and actually live in the UK)viewcode said:
That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.Philip_Thompson said:The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
0 -
Under No Deal, the rights to work and provide services in the EU that UK citizens currently enjoy will disappear overnight. Secondments to clients in the EU27, trips to service plant and machinery, transfers to European offices, and so on, will stop. Just like that. That will have a major and immediate impact across countless service sectors. It may be ameliorated over time, but at what cost remains to be seen. No wonder so many IP lawyers (my area) have been looking to get Irish qualified.DavidL said:
Don't think so.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal will absolutely hammer services.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.Alanbrooke said:
Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.OnlyLivingBoy said:Alanbrooke said:OnlyLivingBoy said:Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.
Firstly, the import/export component of services is more modest than other sectors.
Secondly, many areas, such as law, are strong internationally and not dependent on our membership of the EU.
Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it.
Of course services are not immune to the general health of the economy and that is sub-optimal but on balance the effects, if any, in services should be less pronounced than in manufacturing or farming.
0 -
as Ive said numerous times the UKs BOP problems cannot just be solved by exports. We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliancesOnlyLivingBoy said:
I take your general point but I would point out that UK goods exports are about 45% higher than they were at the turn of the millennium, in real terms. So as declines go it's quite a positive one.Alanbrooke said:
It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.Alanbrooke said:
Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.0 -
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you'll confuse themralphmalph said:
Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.Scott_P said:0 -
So the primary outcome of Brexit is pushing up the cost of living.Alanbrooke said:We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliances
Sweet!0 -
2.4%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?Scott_P said:0 -
June was a disaster for german cars. on the other hand Mercedes announced yesterday they had their best July ever, but that was helped by production in the US and ChinaBig_G_NorthWales said:
As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?Scott_P said:
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/car-production0 -
Facts appear to be for the birds now.Alanbrooke said:
you'll confuse themralphmalph said:
Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.Scott_P said:0 -
An outcome only you could jump toScott_P said:
So the primary outcome of Brexit is pushing up the cost of living.Alanbrooke said:We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliances
Sweet!
0 -
Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.Theuniondivvie said:
Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.0 -
Fewer cars = fewer emissions = fewer climate change.0
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of course Roger but then so do you.Roger said:
You've got pretty eclectic tastes. Irish cows Angela MerkelAlanbrooke said:
funny how politicians didnt give a toss then but now they do.Scott_P said:
Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.Theuniondivvie said:
Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
https://www.ludlow.org.uk/events.asp0 -
Decimalisation did wonders for innumeracy in this country.Roger said:
Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.Theuniondivvie said:
Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
0 -
-
- "I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a Brexit Deal, a Brexit Deal that you will take you far away. You know where you hope the Brexit Deal will take you, but you can't know for sure. Yet it doesn't matter. Now, tell me why?"Scott_P said:
- "Because we'll be Better Together."0 -
The weakness is due to the uncertainty and the blame for that lies with those on both sides who have prevented a deal.TOPPING said:
We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.Brom said:
Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.TOPPING said:
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.0 -
A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.leslie48 said:I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.
As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,0 -
It's a natural shock-absorber. Let the currency take the strain.Scott_P said:
0 -
Nobody believed it in the first place. But the leavers seem determined to make it come true.Brom said:
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes it is.Alanbrooke said:
Is it any worse than the Remainers ?Cyclefree said:
Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.0 -
This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.Stereotomy said:0 -
It will if he has most Leave voters behind him and Remainers are split between multiple parties under FPTPStuartDickson said:
A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.leslie48 said:I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.
As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,0 -
Finally someone identifies a benefit fo Brexit!StuartDickson said:
A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.leslie48 said:I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.
As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,0 -
the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/0 -
The Union: more honoured in the breach than in the observance.Scott_P said:0 -
When the Alliance Party wins more MPs, it won its first MEP in MayAlanbrooke said:
the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/0 -
All of which followed the vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
The weakness is due to the uncertainty and the blame for that lies with those on both sides who have prevented a deal.TOPPING said:
We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.Brom said:
Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.TOPPING said:
In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.Brom said:
Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainause we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.0 -
Compare with Bernie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O-iLk1G_ngydoethur said:
This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.Stereotomy said:0 -
If the Alliance win a majority of seats in NI at the next election that would be brilliant.Alanbrooke said:
the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/
And if they could repeat the trick whenever fresh elections are finally held for Stormont that would be still better.
Don't think it's likely, but who knows right now?0 -
Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.
We grew continuously from the vote until when Remainers in Parliament slammed the brakes on Brexit. I said in March a delay, especially a delay without a purpose like we got, was the worst of all worlds. It maximises uncertainty and achieves nothing. That we've slowed after that delay is not Brexit and is not a surprise. Nobody knows whether they're coming or going at the moment.
We need to proceed with Brexit and end the uncertainty. If there's problems we need to address them. If there's no problems, we can unleash pent up demand and investment and soar ahead. Realistically it will be a mixed bag, there will be companies panicking and pausing investment that didn't need to - so when Brexit goes ahead they can get on with their investment. There will be companies that struggle, we need to get through that. But stopping everything indefinitely is the worst idea ever. Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.0 -
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Oh dear. I am even more worried now.ydoethur said:
This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.Stereotomy said:0 -
oops yes sorry I got confused thought you were also complaining about "schoolchildren" as per headline.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, there might be a case for giving children as young as 16 (to use the Guardian's phrase) the vote.kamski said:
I think in this case you're being a bit silly.Richard_Nabavi said:O/T: Compare and contrast the Guardian's terminology, depending on which line they are pushing:
"children as young as 16"
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/aug/08/schoolchildren-in-china-work-overnight-to-produce-amazon-alexa-devices
"citizens aged 16 and 17"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-voting-age-time-to-lower-it-to-16
Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.
Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.
Though I still see nothing wrong with describing 16 year-olds as "children" in an article about school pupils working nights in factories, while in a completely unrelated article (presumably by a different author) failing to use the word "children" while arguing for 16-17 year-olds to be given the vote.0 -
- “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)
Scotland +42
London +24
Rest of South England +7
Midlands and Wales -5
North of England-6
GB +8
BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.
(YouGov / The Times Survey Results
Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf0 -
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1159749462870437888
Just goes to show what imbecilic nonsense a delay was. Companies prepared for no deal, they had a plan and what did Parliament do? Make it all pointless and have to be repeated six months later.
Idiots! And now the idiots want another delay? What planet are they on?0 -
Blah blah blah.Philip_Thompson said:
Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.TOPPING said:
The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.Philip_Thompson said:
No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.TOPPING said:
Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit hasn't happened yet.Stark_Dawning said:How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.
We grew continuously from the vote until when Remainers in Parliament slammed the brakes on Brexit. I said in March a delay, especially a delay without a purpose like we got, was the worst of all worlds. It maximises uncertainty and achieves nothing. That we've slowed after that delay is not Brexit and is not a surprise. Nobody knows whether they're coming or going at the moment.
We need to proceed with Brexit and end the uncertainty. If there's problems we need to address them. If there's no problems, we can unleash pent up demand and investment and soar ahead. Realistically it will be a mixed bag, there will be companies panicking and pausing investment that didn't need to - so when Brexit goes ahead they can get on with their investment. There will be companies that struggle, we need to get through that. But stopping everything indefinitely is the worst idea ever. Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.
The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.
You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?0 -
Not so much a bluff as a wind up, perhaps?OGH said:This I believe is a negotiating tactic and the betting indicates that punters are starting to believe it. There’ll come a point when this is worth laying..
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/11597408777382625280 -
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And in that context it's worth noting that there have been three by-elections in constituencies that voted leave since 2017 and none have been won by candidates who voted leave or support no deal. There is increasing evidence of tactical voting and the most recent by-election saw a formal alliance between remain-supporting parties.StuartDickson said:
A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.leslie48 said:I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.
As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,0
