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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a

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  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880
    edited August 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
  • Mr. Nabavi, perhaps.

    But the contempt of u-turning would be a different order of magnitude to the consequences of leaving with no deal.

    Boris Johnson's concern is Boris Johnson. What burnishes his destined Churchillian legacy, and what tarnishes it?

    If the UK leaves and flourishes he'll claim to be Moses reborn. If we leave and flounder, his legacy is a wreckage.

    He wants to be liked. An admirable trait, in a spaniel. Or a whore. But not in a Prime Minister.

    So, where does a desire to be liked lead an egocentric buffoon?

    Wait until mid October, and real panic has set in. Emergency leaflets have been sent out, everything.
    Blame Gove and Cummings for their failure, and for misleading him in 2016.
    Reverse ferret, and hope to be loved for saving the UK from the Crisis.
    It probably won't work, because he was largely the cause of the crisis, but it seems his best bet.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    he's laughing in your face.
    He is evidently looking in the mirror.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    DavidL said:

    I don't think that there is any question that the continuing uncertainty that our political idiots wished upon the country by delaying Brexit from March to October has contributed to the disappointing GDP figures but the Q1 figures were somewhat flattered by stockbuilding and some run down of that was inevitable.

    The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.

    What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.

    Just to let you know Brexit has not happened yet. This is just a run up to it. Don't worry starting Oct 1, we are going to start stockpiling again !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
    I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
    Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
    Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
    If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.
    Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.

    You don't have to believe in it to suffer from it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,541

    DavidL said:

    I don't think that there is any question that the continuing uncertainty that our political idiots wished upon the country by delaying Brexit from March to October has contributed to the disappointing GDP figures but the Q1 figures were somewhat flattered by stockbuilding and some run down of that was inevitable.

    The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.

    What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.

    Just to let you know Brexit has not happened yet. This is just a run up to it. Don't worry starting Oct 1, we are going to start stockpiling again !
    Probably which means we are very likely to avoid a technical recession. Doesn't tell us a whole lot about the underlying picture though which is not great.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    On PB some time today, I am sure. None of their other attack lines seem to have any traction.
    The reason that they have no traction is because the only justification for Brexit is "We want it come hell or high water".
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276
    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.

    You don't have to believe in it to suffer from it
    well apparently we're all stuffed. It's hilarious and shows a complete lack of life experience.
  • TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,952
    Mr. Romford, that's a plausible turn of events.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    breaks off the economy.

    Unfortunate typo...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880
    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
    Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,430
    Scott_P said:
    The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.

    High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....
  • Nigelb said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
    Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820
    edited August 2019



    Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.

    I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,070

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Youre rather missing the fact that a lot of damage has already been done. The UK political system is breaking down. That;s been caused by people not implementing a democratic vote, likewise the slowdown in investment is because the UK has no definable environment in which investment decisions can be made.

    And as for staying in, all Ive seen to date has been a focus on not leaving, there is absolutely zero thought as to what a UK still in the UK will look like. It simply wont be the same as pre 2016.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
    Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...
    Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,571

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
    Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,541

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):

    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
    Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
    If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.

    No Deal will absolutely hammer services.

    Don't think so.
    Firstly, the import/export component of services is more modest than other sectors.
    Secondly, many areas, such as law, are strong internationally and not dependent on our membership of the EU.
    Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it.

    Of course services are not immune to the general health of the economy and that is sub-optimal but on balance the effects, if any, in services should be less pronounced than in manufacturing or farming.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820

    Scott_P said:
    The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.

    High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....
    UK growth -0.2%
    Euro Area growth +0.2%.

    Their corpse looks more alive than ours.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
    Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...
    Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.
    You may have noticed that I post rarely these days. That is because I am busy enjoying my Brexit-proof life. Whilst I regard Brexit as a supreme act of folly and self-harm, it is a popcorn show as far as I am concerned.

    I one way, I do hope for a No Deal Brexit just to see if Brexiteers will stop blaming everyone but themselves, but it is more of a whim than a burning, fanatical desire :D:D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310



    Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.

    I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.
    It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.
  • leslie48leslie48 Posts: 33
    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,844

    Nigelb said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
    Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
    Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899
    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    The recession was forecast for 2016 after the vote. We are now in 2019 and technically not actually in a recession. Eventually a recession will come along as they always do but thats just the economic cycle. We had our last downturn 10 years ago, were due another one some time soon.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,019
    kamski said:

    I think in this case you're being a bit silly.

    Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.

    Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.
    Yes, there might be a case for giving children as young as 16 (to use the Guardian's phrase) the vote.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Youre rather missing the fact that a lot of damage has already been done. The UK political system is breaking down. That;s been caused by people not implementing a democratic vote, likewise the slowdown in investment is because the UK has no definable environment in which investment decisions can be made.
    The Marxist and Kipper entryists are demonstrating their "talent" at running things - i.e. zero.

    And as for staying in, all Ive seen to date has been a focus on not leaving, there is absolutely zero thought as to what a UK still in the UK will look like. It simply wont be the same as pre 2016.

    No it will not be the same. We have proven beyond all doubt that our politicians are assh*les.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276

    Scott_P said:
    The economies of our EU markets are crashing and burning. Hardly Brexit's fault.

    High time we delinked from that EU corpse and went our on way in the world....
    UK growth -0.2%
    Euro Area growth +0.2%.

    Their corpse looks more alive than ours.
    How come Germany is expected to show negative Q2 growth and we are expected to outperform the country at the heart of the Eurozone?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.
    Remainers have the pwoer to pass legislation in the HoC. They are not powerless.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880

    Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
    Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.

    If you deny the possibility of warming, then it follows you should get snowflakes :D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being rempened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ag cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
    lol

    shouldnt you be asking George Osborne that ? he made the claims.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    The recession was forecast for 2016 after the vote. We are now in 2019 and technically not actually in a recession. Eventually a recession will come along as they always do but thats just the economic cycle. We had our last downturn 10 years ago, were due another one some time soon.
    See my response to Brom. Recessions don't happen in a week and a half. They evolve and our decision to leave (the vote) set in motion the series of events that has resulted in the current situation. Which as you rightly say is not, technically, a recession. Certainly doesn't feel like boom though.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,276
    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
    Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820



    Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.

    I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.
    It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.
    I take your general point but I would point out that UK goods exports are about 45% higher than they were at the turn of the millennium, in real terms. So as declines go it's quite a positive one.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,880
    Enough...

    Later peeps :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    Scott_P said:
    funny how politicians didnt give a toss then but now they do.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

    That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,908


    He's gone off Boris already
    Scott_P said:
    He's gone off Boris already...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,844
    viewcode said:

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

    That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.
    Love the last sentence.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
    Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...
    Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.
    You may have noticed that I post rarely these days. That is because I am busy enjoying my Brexit-proof life. Whilst I regard Brexit as a supreme act of folly and self-harm, it is a popcorn show as far as I am concerned.

    I one way, I do hope for a No Deal Brexit just to see if Brexiteers will stop blaming everyone but themselves, but it is more of a whim than a burning, fanatical desire :D:D
    Yesterday you were lamenting that Brexit had halved one of your pensions but today you're Brexit proof. Have you sacked your financial adviser?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899
    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
    Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.
    We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.

    Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.
  • Scott_P said:
    As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    The Remainers have very little power so their lies have little effect and can be ignored. Leavers have lots and growing, so their lies are things that I have to deal with. So from a practical POV, yes.
    Remainers have the pwoer to pass legislation in the HoC. They are not powerless.
    The certainly have the power to talk about legislation. They "call for" things frequently, or "slam" or "destroy" things a lot. They are very good at posting or typing or talking. The actual "doing", however, seems to escape them... :(
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,070
    viewcode said:

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

    That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.
    The novelty is trying a new coalition excluding the middle classes (or at least those of them who work, aren't independently wealthy, and actually live in the UK)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

    That's not actually true. The Conservatives have stayed relevant over the centuries by cobbling together various coalitions of the upper and upper-middle classes and are most successful when they extend that coalition. They should be thought of as a tribe with interests, not an idea with ideals and principles. If it is necessary to become economically authoritarian or fiscally incontinent to preserve the tribe, then they will do so. @HYUFD explains this better than I.
    The novelty is trying a new coalition excluding the middle classes (or at least those of them who work, aren't independently wealthy, and actually live in the UK)
    Fair point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,281
    edited August 2019
    Roger said:



    He's gone off Boris already

    Scott_P said:
    He's gone off Boris already...
    Didn't get the IMF gig did he.
  • DavidL said:

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):

    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
    Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
    If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.

    No Deal will absolutely hammer services.

    Don't think so.
    Firstly, the import/export component of services is more modest than other sectors.
    Secondly, many areas, such as law, are strong internationally and not dependent on our membership of the EU.
    Thirdly, I think it is very likely that London will continue to get access to the EU on favourable terms. The EU simply doesn't have a financial centre of adequate liquidity and skills without it.

    Of course services are not immune to the general health of the economy and that is sub-optimal but on balance the effects, if any, in services should be less pronounced than in manufacturing or farming.

    Under No Deal, the rights to work and provide services in the EU that UK citizens currently enjoy will disappear overnight. Secondments to clients in the EU27, trips to service plant and machinery, transfers to European offices, and so on, will stop. Just like that. That will have a major and immediate impact across countless service sectors. It may be ameliorated over time, but at what cost remains to be seen. No wonder so many IP lawyers (my area) have been looking to get Irish qualified.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310



    Some of the issue in Q2 are clearly Brexit related such as the slow down in investment. For the rest the slowdown affecting the rest of the world is probably important and more concerning.Subject to a US China deal it looks like it will get worse before it gets better.

    I agree with that. Detaching ourselves from a powerful trading bloc (and trying to attach ourselves to one than only respects brute force and is currently trashing the international trading order) is doubly stupid in these circumstances. Ditto giving our beleaguered exporters another unnecessary headache to deal with. Brexit is a solution to a non esistent problem and a distraction from the actual threats we face.
    It remains to be seen if its stupid or not. And as for exporters weve been on a serial decline for the last 20 years. In all that time nobody gave a rats arse.
    I take your general point but I would point out that UK goods exports are about 45% higher than they were at the turn of the millennium, in real terms. So as declines go it's quite a positive one.
    as Ive said numerous times the UKs BOP problems cannot just be solved by exports. We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliances
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310

    Scott_P said:
    Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.
    you'll confuse them
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliances

    So the primary outcome of Brexit is pushing up the cost of living.

    Sweet!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820

    Scott_P said:
    As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?
    2.4%.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310

    Scott_P said:
    As a matter of interest and comparision how much did the German car industry contract in the same period ?
    June was a disaster for german cars. on the other hand Mercedes announced yesterday they had their best July ever, but that was helped by production in the US and China

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/car-production
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 12,090

    Scott_P said:
    Because the car industry decided to bring the August shutdowns forward and do maintenance on the plants. The important point is that this Aug they will still be producing.
    you'll confuse them
    Facts appear to be for the birds now.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    Scott_P said:

    We need to be looking at import substitution and make a lot of the things we used to make. The UKs manufacture deficit comes primarly from medium tech items made in high cost countries.ge cars or hiusehold appliances

    So the primary outcome of Brexit is pushing up the cost of living.

    Sweet!
    An outcome only you could jump to

  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,908
    edited August 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
    Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
    Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.
  • Fewer cars = fewer emissions = fewer climate change.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    funny how politicians didnt give a toss then but now they do.
    You've got pretty eclectic tastes. Irish cows Angela Merkel

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
    Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
    Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.
    of course Roger but then so do you.

    https://www.ludlow.org.uk/events.asp
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,785
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    Reminds me of another, much more important issue of the day.
    Probably not a coincidence that so many Leavers are climate change denie...oops, must remember the snowflakes...sceptics.
    Anything that sounds new fangled like decimalisation and vehicles not towed by horses.
    Decimalisation did wonders for innumeracy in this country.
  • Scott_P said:
    - "I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a Brexit Deal, a Brexit Deal that you will take you far away. You know where you hope the Brexit Deal will take you, but you can't know for sure. Yet it doesn't matter. Now, tell me why?"

    - "Because we'll be Better Together."
  • TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
    Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.
    We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.

    Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.
    The weakness is due to the uncertainty and the blame for that lies with those on both sides who have prevented a deal.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,232
    edited August 2019
    leslie48 said:

    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,

    A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,785
    Scott_P said:
    It's a natural shock-absorber. Let the currency take the strain.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
    Yes it is.

    If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.

    If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.

    The two are not comparable.
    "we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
    Nobody believed it in the first place. But the leavers seem determined to make it come true.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 35,834
    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,444

    leslie48 said:

    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,

    A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.
    It will if he has most Leave voters behind him and Remainers are split between multiple parties under FPTP
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,070

    leslie48 said:

    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,

    A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.
    Finally someone identifies a benefit fo Brexit!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,310

    the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,232
    Scott_P said:
    The Union: more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,444


    the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/

    When the Alliance Party wins more MPs, it won its first MEP in May
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899

    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainause we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Nope the vote happened 3 years ago and the recession didn't happen. It seemed fair that they were mocked. Some will enjoy gloating over today's economic news as they want to see the country suffer, but as we found 6 years ago a period of negative economic growth or indeed a recession will always happen whether in or outside the EU. That's the economic cycle for you.
    In what sort of time scale do you think recessions happen? 24 hours? The vote set in motion a series of events and shaped attitudes, particularly in investment, that has lead us to today's current situation.

    No one is saying there is no economic cycle, there are also catalysts.
    Seriously? A recession could have easily occurred sooner than 3 years after the vote. If a recession doesn't happen for another few years presumably you'll blame Brexit too, and similarly if a country in the EU goes into recession that is the fault of the EU.
    We have not left the EU but have voted to leave the EU. Hence the recession is not because of Brexit because that hasn't happened yet. All that has happened is the vote. And we now seem to be on the cusp of a recession. Because of the vote.

    Unless you are saying that this weakness is not Brexit-related which would certainly be a novel interpretation.
    The weakness is due to the uncertainty and the blame for that lies with those on both sides who have prevented a deal.
    All of which followed the vote.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Compare with Bernie:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 35,834
    edited August 2019


    the shifting sands of NI politics, when does this actually kill the 2 party system of SF and DUP

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/09/50-of-people-in-northern-ireland-now-describe-themselves-as-neither-unionist-or-nationalist/

    If the Alliance win a majority of seats in NI at the next election that would be brilliant.

    And if they could repeat the trick whenever fresh elections are finally held for Stormont that would be still better.

    Don't think it's likely, but who knows right now?
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.

    The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.

    We grew continuously from the vote until when Remainers in Parliament slammed the brakes on Brexit. I said in March a delay, especially a delay without a purpose like we got, was the worst of all worlds. It maximises uncertainty and achieves nothing. That we've slowed after that delay is not Brexit and is not a surprise. Nobody knows whether they're coming or going at the moment.

    We need to proceed with Brexit and end the uncertainty. If there's problems we need to address them. If there's no problems, we can unleash pent up demand and investment and soar ahead. Realistically it will be a mixed bag, there will be companies panicking and pausing investment that didn't need to - so when Brexit goes ahead they can get on with their investment. There will be companies that struggle, we need to get through that. But stopping everything indefinitely is the worst idea ever. Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,281
    ydoethur said:

    This is one of the many reasons why Biden should not be the nominee.
    Oh dear. I am even more worried now.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,787

    kamski said:

    I think in this case you're being a bit silly.

    Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.

    Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.
    Yes, there might be a case for giving children as young as 16 (to use the Guardian's phrase) the vote.
    oops yes sorry I got confused thought you were also complaining about "schoolchildren" as per headline.

    Though I still see nothing wrong with describing 16 year-olds as "children" in an article about school pupils working nights in factories, while in a completely unrelated article (presumably by a different author) failing to use the word "children" while arguing for 16-17 year-olds to be given the vote.
  • geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's a natural shock-absorber. Let the currency take the strain.
    100% correct.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,232
    edited August 2019
    - “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)

    Scotland +42
    London +24
    Rest of South England +7
    Midlands and Wales -5
    North of England-6

    GB +8

    BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.

    (YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf


  • Just goes to show what imbecilic nonsense a delay was. Companies prepared for no deal, they had a plan and what did Parliament do? Make it all pointless and have to be repeated six months later.

    Idiots! And now the idiots want another delay? What planet are they on?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,899

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    No I'm taunting someone who always says to any good news that we haven't left yet.

    I do believe Brexit is involved in this. Delaying Brexit is causing terrible uncertainty and we need to end the delays and take the breaks off the economy.
    The point being remainers were heavily criticised and mocked for the "project fear" warning that just a vote would trigger a recession. Which, more or less, seems to have happened.

    As to "taking the breaks off the economy" we are still in a world where Germany sells more stuff to the US than we do.
    Rightly criticised and mocked because it didn't happen.

    The period of "just a vote" ended on 29/3/19. Anything that happened then isn't due to Brexit it is due to Remainers in Parliament cancelling/delaying Brexit.

    We grew continuously from the vote until when Remainers in Parliament slammed the brakes on Brexit. I said in March a delay, especially a delay without a purpose like we got, was the worst of all worlds. It maximises uncertainty and achieves nothing. That we've slowed after that delay is not Brexit and is not a surprise. Nobody knows whether they're coming or going at the moment.

    We need to proceed with Brexit and end the uncertainty. If there's problems we need to address them. If there's no problems, we can unleash pent up demand and investment and soar ahead. Realistically it will be a mixed bag, there will be companies panicking and pausing investment that didn't need to - so when Brexit goes ahead they can get on with their investment. There will be companies that struggle, we need to get through that. But stopping everything indefinitely is the worst idea ever. Until we JFDI Brexit nobody is going to know where they stand, this needs to end 31/10/19 no ifs, no buts.
    Blah blah blah.

    The country voted to leave and here we are on the cusp of a recession. So as result of the view we are now in this position.

    You are an economist. Did you expect the recession to emerge on July 1st 2016?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    OGH said:

    This I believe is a negotiating tactic and the betting indicates that punters are starting to believe it. There’ll come a point when this is worth laying..

    Not so much a bluff as a wind up, perhaps?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,232
    geoffw said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's a natural shock-absorber. Let the currency take the strain.
    Tell that to soon-to-be-pensioners who have seen the value of their funds slashed..
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413

    leslie48 said:

    I do not believe the fuel crisis in 2000 will be as big as this. Best example will be the 3 day week emergency in the early 1970s when Ted Heath went to the country. Wilson narrowly won. Boris is lucky as he no one opposite him like Tony Blair, Harold Wilson etc. Corbyn on the lowest polling in UK history of Labour Party might be his savior.

    As those of us who after a lifetime have left the Labour Party since 2015 in our thousands JC is the gift that keeps giving to Tory Man. McCluskey should be charged for getting the Labour Party in a state when even the third parties dismiss the idea of Corbyn the unpopular as being an alternative leader. A third force of Lib Dems and SNP etc is now inevitable in Remain Seats etc.,

    A dire Labour performance may not save BJ. If people flock to the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru then the duopoly could break. And when it breaks, it’ll be broken for good.
    And in that context it's worth noting that there have been three by-elections in constituencies that voted leave since 2017 and none have been won by candidates who voted leave or support no deal. There is increasing evidence of tactical voting and the most recent by-election saw a formal alliance between remain-supporting parties.
This discussion has been closed.