I know that HYUFD can be irritating for his over-reliance on polls as predictors of the future. However, it's amusing to see numbers of his harshest critics citing polling evidence from a local by-election in Worcester as evidence that can be instantly translated to a GE LD landslide not only there but throughout the nation. They may be right but really, is this the level of psephological analysis Brexititis has driven us to?
But HYUFD relies on opinion polls, usually ones asking hypothetical questions. The Worcester by-election is a real poll with real votes. Obviously tkaing the Worcester swings and implying they represent UNS is absurd but taken with other recent by-elections they do suggest that there is a trend toward tactical voting by remainers which is helping the Lib Dems and damaging the Tories particularly, though Labour also suffers in some seats.
The other thing people forget about Warren is she was a registered Republican until she started studying these issues. Her ideological move started when presented with the reality of what happened when certain things were left for the market to decide. She can sell to soft republicans / working republicans the idea of being left behind and that government can help.
From a DNC pov, she is much better placed to unify Biden and Bernie voters, as well. Biden is the establishment candidate, Bernie is still the renegade, and she is perfectly placed (better than Harris, IMHO) to capitalise on that.
I wouldn't disagree, and she's rightly joint favourite, I think - though anything can happen during a primary campaign.
As for that vaunted Republican messaging which HYUFD and friends put so much faith in...
On Wednesday, a staffer for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, accused McBath of “fundraising off the mass shootings” and doing “anything for a quick buck” — drawing scorn for using dismissive language about the mother of a black teenager who was shot and killed by a white man for playing his music too loudly at a Florida gas station in 2012....
I know that HYUFD can be irritating for his over-reliance on polls as predictors of the future. However, it's amusing to see numbers of his harshest critics citing polling evidence from a local by-election in Worcester as evidence that can be instantly translated to a GE LD landslide not only there but throughout the nation. They may be right but really, is this the level of psephological analysis Brexititis has driven us to?
But HYUFD relies on opinion polls, usually ones asking hypothetical questions. The Worcester by-election is a real poll with real votes. Obviously tkaing the Worcester swings and implying they represent UNS is absurd but taken with other recent by-elections they do suggest that there is a trend toward tactical voting by remainers which is helping the Lib Dems and damaging the Tories particularly, though Labour also suffers in some seats.
And you must know that local elections are very poor predictors historically of GE results. You must also be aware that in B&R the result was a lower majority than expected and may be entirely untypical of other parts of the country. HYUFD is often wrong and wild in his assertions but equally absurd is to overly excited about a few local by-election results.
I know that HYUFD can be irritating for his over-reliance on polls as predictors of the future. However, it's amusing to see numbers of his harshest critics citing polling evidence from a local by-election in Worcester as evidence that can be instantly translated to a GE LD landslide not only there but throughout the nation. They may be right but really, is this the level of psephological analysis Brexititis has driven us to?
But HYUFD relies on opinion polls, usually ones asking hypothetical questions. The Worcester by-election is a real poll with real votes. Obviously tkaing the Worcester swings and implying they represent UNS is absurd but taken with other recent by-elections they do suggest that there is a trend toward tactical voting by remainers which is helping the Lib Dems and damaging the Tories particularly, though Labour also suffers in some seats.
The problem is, no one has a clue as to how this would play out in a GE. Worcester? This is a Tory-Labour marginal. What was the turnout yesterday? I doubt it was close to the 70% that turned out to vote in Worcester in 2017. And could the Lib Dems convince all those red rosette on a donkey types to vote Lib Dem?
Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.
If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.
Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.
No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.
Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
As he campaigned on a fiction, a bit of rewriting ought not to be beyond his capabilities.
Though I’ve got to admit, ‘Boris Johnson, paragon of consistency’, has a novel ring to it.
Well, since "conservative" now means "revolutionary" it should be possible to give "consistency" a completely different meaning to the one it has had up to now.
The greatest Conservative Prime Ministers have all had revolutionary streaks through them.
Disraeli, Peel, Churchill and Thatcher were all pretty revolutionary in their own ways.
They were also responsible leaders and could create coherent policies that put the good of the nation ahead of the party. Peel caused a massive upset in the Tory party that took decades to get over because he put the nation first.
As for the Tory party, it is gone. It is just another branch of UKIP these days.
Boris is putting the country first and causing a massive upset in the party - which is why TSE, Herdson, Nabavi and BigG have left - because they're upset with what he is doing.
Boris pushing ahead with Brexit is a modern day repeal of the corn laws. People like the quad I mentioned who liked the old laws are not happy.
If May or Boris had done a Peel, then they would have rejected the Derbyite ERG and pushed the WA through with Labour/LD support.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.
Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
As he campaigned on a fiction, a bit of rewriting ought not to be beyond his capabilities.
Though I’ve got to admit, ‘Boris Johnson, paragon of consistency’, has a novel ring to it.
Well, since "conservative" now means "revolutionary" it should be possible to give "consistency" a completely different meaning to the one it has had up to now.
The greatest Conservative Prime Ministers have all had revolutionary streaks through them.
Disraeli, Peel, Churchill and Thatcher were all pretty revolutionary in their own ways.
They were also responsible leaders and could create coherent policies that put the good of the nation ahead of the party. Peel caused a massive upset in the Tory party that took decades to get over because he put the nation first.
As for the Tory party, it is gone. It is just another branch of UKIP these days.
Boris is putting the country first and causing a massive upset in the party - which is why TSE, Herdson, Nabavi and BigG have left - because they're upset with what he is doing.
Boris pushing ahead with Brexit is a modern day repeal of the corn laws. People like the quad I mentioned who liked the old laws are not happy.
Oh yes - the country is gagging for No Deal Brexit.....
TSE et al can answer for themselves, but the flight of Tories like them just hands the entryist kippers and nationalists more control.
The Conservative Party is dead, the corpse has just not stopped twitching yet.
I thought YouGov had debunked the theory of entryist Kippers?
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.
If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.
Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.
No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.
Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
Freedom of Movement. Boris is pro-immigration.
Boris is liberalising our non-EU migration system. He's dropped the ludicrous tens of thousands pledge, he's liberalised migration for scientists and doctors and others.
But ending free movement was a key part of the campaign. Controlled but liberal migration is a good thing.
Before posting, I ran a quick search but could not find Boris saying anything at all about Freedom of Movement in the months before the referendum. Of course, my google-fu may be waning.
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
I know that HYUFD can be irritating for his over-reliance on polls as predictors of the future. However, it's amusing to see numbers of his harshest critics citing polling evidence from a local by-election in Worcester as evidence that can be instantly translated to a GE LD landslide not only there but throughout the nation. They may be right but really, is this the level of psephological analysis Brexititis has driven us to?
But HYUFD relies on opinion polls, usually ones asking hypothetical questions. The Worcester by-election is a real poll with real votes. Obviously tkaing the Worcester swings and implying they represent UNS is absurd but taken with other recent by-elections they do suggest that there is a trend toward tactical voting by remainers which is helping the Lib Dems and damaging the Tories particularly, though Labour also suffers in some seats.
And you must know that local elections are very poor predictors historically of GE results. You must also be aware that in B&R the result was a lower majority than expected and may be entirely untypical of other parts of the country. HYUFD is often wrong and wild in his assertions but equally absurd is to overly excited about a few local by-election results.
Certainly but it's instructive to note that the last three parliamentary by-elections, all in constituencies that voted leave, have been won by candidates that supported remain and are opposed to no deal.
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Yes it did, I always said it did. I said marginally.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Yes it did, I always said it did. I said marginally.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
It was 0.1% above the BoE target but at the beginning of the period (2016) it was running at a SIGNIFICANTLY lower level than that. Look at the graph.
O/T Farting politician shuts down Kenyan parliament: Emergency air fresheners are brought in while MPs accuse each other of being responsible for smell:
Miss Cyclefree, the PM et al. are behaving foolishly, but it's worth repeating that there was a deal to vote for, and those MPs who voted to have a say on it then voted thrice against the deal. That wasn't the Conservatives' doing.
If Labour refuses to back a deal, the only alternatives are leaving without one, or remaining in (or another referendum). All are very politically contentious.
Of course, I'd have more sympathy for Boris Johnson if he hadn't painted himself into a corner, but there we are.
No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.
Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
As he campaigned on a fiction, a bit of rewriting ought not to be beyond his capabilities.
Though I’ve got to admit, ‘Boris Johnson, paragon of consistency’, has a novel ring to it.
Well, since "conservative" now means "revolutionary" it should be possible to give "consistency" a completely different meaning to the one it has had up to now.
The greatest Conservative Prime Ministers have all had revolutionary streaks through them.
Disraeli, Peel, Churchill and Thatcher were all pretty revolutionary in their own ways.
They were also responsible leaders and could create coherent policies that put the good of the nation ahead of the party. Peel caused a massive upset in the Tory party that took decades to get over because he put the nation first.
As for the Tory party, it is gone. It is just another branch of UKIP these days.
Boris is putting the country first and causing a massive upset in the party - which is why TSE, Herdson, Nabavi and BigG have left - because they're upset with what he is doing.
Boris pushing ahead with Brexit is a modern day repeal of the corn laws. People like the quad I mentioned who liked the old laws are not happy.
If May or Boris had done a Peel, then they would have rejected the Derbyite ERG and pushed the WA through with Labour/LD support.
I'm sorry but in my analogy you, TSE, May etc are the Derbyites.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Labour gave up on that under Blair, these days its just window dressing
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Yes it did, I always said it did. I said marginally.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
It was 0.1% above the BoE target but at the beginning of the period (2016) it was running at a SIGNIFICANTLY lower level than that. Look at the graph.
Yes it was and that was dangerous, not positive and the BoE had a duty to increase inflation regardless of Brexit from that dangerously low and deflationary out of bounds.
We Brexited and we remained within target bounds only exceeding it on 2 months and only by 0.1%.
Oh yes - the country is gagging for No Deal Brexit.....
TSE et al can answer for themselves, but the flight of Tories like them just hands the entryist kippers and nationalists more control.
The Conservative Party is dead, the corpse has just not stopped twitching yet.
I thought YouGov had debunked the theory of entryist Kippers?
Maybe they did - I do not follow every utterance from YouGov, but I am being polite calling the ex-Tory party Kippers.
They have come from somewhere.
"...Nearly 80 percent of those who joined since 2017 support a no-deal Brexit, compared with 60 percent from before 2015, according to research by Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London..."
May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.
Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
Yes. If we are going to cock things up at least do it in an original manner. Its how evolution works to make things better.
Phillip, The other day when I suggested the EU could stop the clock until we sorted out say a GE you said that was not possible. Professor Bogdanor whom I am guessing you would agree knows more about this than you or me begs to differ. He has just said precisely that.
I said that it was unlawful under the EU Constitution.
Professor Bogdanor has said [to my knowledge, only read snippets quoted here] that it would be lawful under UK law to do a retroactive change. That I agree with. EU law and UK law are not identical and UK law is more open to fudge.
He also seemed quite happy that the EU could do it. That was the point of what he was saying, that it could be done. It was a suggested solution. In fact the more challenging aspect seemed to be the retrospective change by the UK for which he gave an example (war crimes). He did not say or imply there would be any issues on the EU side. If there were you would have thought he would have mentioned them as otherwise the whole point of him bringing it up would have been, well pointless. He thought the EU would be quite keen in fact.
He's wrong. Article 50(5) is explicit that a state that has left must rejoin according to the normal accession process.
With goodwill all round (an optimistic assumption), an Accession Treaty could be agreed on status quo ante terms and signed off very quickly. The UK is in full accordance with the acquis, after all. However, the implementation of such a treaty would require ratification in all 27 EU member states and the EP, as well as in the UK; not just a vote in the European Council.
David, I could be misrepresenting what he said, but it didn't sound ambiguous. Did you hear him?
I think the key point was they (the EU) from their point of view delays the leaving date if we wish to take advantage of that i.e stop the clock.
I didn't hear him but the EU cannot 'stop the clock' unilaterally or retrospectively. Article 50 is clear on the process for extending A50 and it needs the consent of all current member states, including the departing one.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Yes it did, I always said it did. I said marginally.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
It was 0.1% above the BoE target but at the beginning of the period (2016) it was running at a SIGNIFICANTLY lower level than that. Look at the graph.
Yes it was and that was dangerous, not positive and the BoE had a duty to increase inflation regardless of Brexit from that dangerously low and deflationary out of bounds.
We Brexited and we remained within target bounds only exceeding it on 2 months and only by 0.1%.
ie inflation rose significantly after the 2016 vote.
If the Remainers are wrong, Brexit will not do any damage.
If the Leavers are wrong, we are all stuffed.
The two are not comparable.
"we are all stuffed" I'm afraid that no one believe this apocalyptic rubbish anymore.
Fine. Do not believe it. See if I care. See if reality cares either...
Well seeing as you say 'I'm stuffed' then maybe I will care. Most of us really won't be stuffed, but obviously those like yourself who spend every day worrying on politics forums rather than enjoying life and working hard might see some difficulty. The kneejerk reactions on this forum to every bit of news and opinion really can be something else! Does make me smile.
You may have noticed that I post rarely these days. That is because I am busy enjoying my Brexit-proof life. Whilst I regard Brexit as a supreme act of folly and self-harm, it is a popcorn show as far as I am concerned.
I one way, I do hope for a No Deal Brexit just to see if Brexiteers will stop blaming everyone but themselves, but it is more of a whim than a burning, fanatical desire
Yesterday you were lamenting that Brexit had halved one of your pensions but today you're Brexit proof. Have you sacked your financial adviser?
Yes it has halved one of my pension plans, but I do not depend on it. It would be nice to have the full amount but I have:
- No debts - No mortgages - No loan agreements - No credit card bills - Savings (apart from pensions) tucked away in various places
Average UK debt per adult is £31,000 but Brexit will not affect me or my family or my property, car or other possessions.
thats not efficient. If you believe a prolonged period of currency weakness - and by extension higher inflation - is incoming then you should purchase debt and gain a physical asset (eg remortgage your house). The rationale being that inflation will eat away at the interest payments and the asset will gain in value as the currency depreciates. Although it's obviously better to check with somebody else first...
Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.
And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.
Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.
What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
Thanks. I knew it was something like that.
So prices won't increase if the pound drops to parity with the dollar, or goes down to 0.8 Euros, because we spend pounds in the shops, not dollars or Euros. And there won't be any goods in the shops from abroad anyway. So the exchange rate really doesn't make any difference.
I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.
It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.
And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?
Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
Pretty sure inflation has been quite high at times over the last decade. Many letters written by the Bank of England Governor on the subject if you care to read them.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
I hope we don’t have to go the whole way with the German analogy!
Oh yes - the country is gagging for No Deal Brexit.....
TSE et al can answer for themselves, but the flight of Tories like them just hands the entryist kippers and nationalists more control.
The Conservative Party is dead, the corpse has just not stopped twitching yet.
I thought YouGov had debunked the theory of entryist Kippers?
Maybe they did - I do not follow every utterance from YouGov, but I am being polite calling the ex-Tory party Kippers.
They have come from somewhere.
"...Nearly 80 percent of those who joined since 2017 support a no-deal Brexit, compared with 60 percent from before 2015, according to research by Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London..."
I suspect 80 percent of those who joined before 2017 support a no-deal Brexit too.
If 38% of the population supports No Deal (equating to at least 40% in England) and they turn out and vote Tory at the upcoming election, it will be a bloodbath for Labour MPs.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
No - there's an obvious other choice you've ignored.
Change May's red lines and negotiate a fresh deal, taking the time to do so, to learn from the mistakes May made and ensuring that you do so in a way which gets your party / Parliament behind it. Of course that would involve getting an extension. But of all the things to make a red line, an arbitrary date imposed by the EU is by far the stupidest.
Can you name one red line to change that would be consistent with what Boris argued during the referendum?
As he campaigned on a fiction, a bit of rewriting ought not to be beyond his capabilities.
Though I’ve got to admit, ‘Boris Johnson, paragon of consistency’, has a novel ring to it.
Well, since "conservative" now means "revolutionary" it should be possible to give "consistency" a completely different meaning to the one it has had up to now.
The greatest Conservative Prime Ministers have all had revolutionary streaks through them.
Disraeli, Peel, Churchill and Thatcher were all pretty revolutionary in their own ways.
They were also responsible leaders and could create coherent policies that put the good of the nation ahead of the party. Peel caused a massive upset in the Tory party that took decades to get over because he put the nation first.
As for the Tory party, it is gone. It is just another branch of UKIP these days.
Boris is putting the country first and causing a massive upset in the party - which is why TSE, Herdson, Nabavi and BigG have left - because they're upset with what he is doing.
Boris pushing ahead with Brexit is a modern day repeal of the corn laws. People like the quad I mentioned who liked the old laws are not happy.
If May or Boris had done a Peel, then they would have rejected the Derbyite ERG and pushed the WA through with Labour/LD support.
I'm sorry but in my analogy you, TSE, May etc are the Derbyites.
And how do you work that out when Peel went against his own party to deliver his change, in alliance with opposition forces?
The only way in which your claim possibly works is that both Peel and Boris are in government and trying to deliver something - but that's a slim parallel.
Elements of the Tories must be starting to feel queasy. Remember, this No Deal lark was originally framed as a mere stand-off: strong, sturdy Boris forcing the Europeans to make the capitulation that was always likely (if only Theresa hadn't been so clueless). No one actually thought he'd go through with it. Now, under Cummings's influence, Boris is positively relishing No Deal. This is heavy stuff!
Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.
And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.
Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.
What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
Thanks. I knew it was something like that.
So prices won't increase if the pound drops to parity with the dollar, or goes down to 0.8 Euros, because we spend pounds in the shops, not dollars or Euros. And there won't be any goods in the shops from abroad anyway. So the exchange rate really doesn't make any difference.
I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.
It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.
And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?
Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
Pretty sure inflation has been quite high at times over the last decade. Many letters written by the Bank of England Governor on the subject if you care to read them.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
I thought they were led by a tailors dummy!
Too scruffy to grace the window of anything other than a Sunderland charity shop.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
I'd be amazed if they manage to return an MP other than Ian Murray at the next GE.
There was an opportunity post 2016 to position themselves as pro Europe and pro Union, to court the unionist vote, but they've botched it with incompetent leadership in Westminster and Edinburgh.
The SLDs totally dominate that sector now. The next election could be great for them. They’re only in the running to win 5 seats, but they could have a surprisingly long list of decent 2nd places.
I think you're right. SLAB stand to be squashed flat with pro-Union voters switching to LibDems, with their new Scottish UK leader, and, of course, Ruth who still has cross-over appeal. An interesting straw in the lead was the (relatively - in May) recent Haddington council by-election which is located in East Lothian and which, almost uniquely, has a Labour MP and Labour constituency MSP. Despite that huge institutional advantage Labour fell from 1st place to 3rd. Since then things have only got worse.
East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir - Conservative hold based on first preference votes
Conservative 2,212 35.0% +6.0% SNP 1,866 29.5% +3.5% Labour 1,359 21.5% -12.2% Liberal Democrat 774 12.2% +5.0% UKIP 108 1.7%
Total votes 6,319
81%
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 9% since 2017 with SNP to Conservative 1¼% also since 2017
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
Serves them right, no?
I think we should at least ask them to bring their own stockpiles.
Considering the banks target is 2% but then there is a +/ 1% tolerance around that [as it will never be exactly 2% all the time] I see inflation exceeding the 3% tolerated by about 0.1% for 2 months.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Inflation went up after sterling weakness following the vote. That was the measure you were lecturing @Chris about.
Yes it did, I always said it did. I said marginally.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
It was 0.1% above the BoE target but at the beginning of the period (2016) it was running at a SIGNIFICANTLY lower level than that. Look at the graph.
Yes it was and that was dangerous, not positive and the BoE had a duty to increase inflation regardless of Brexit from that dangerously low and deflationary out of bounds.
We Brexited and we remained within target bounds only exceeding it on 2 months and only by 0.1%.
ie inflation rose significantly after the 2016 vote.
No inflation rising significantly would be inflation significantly above the 3% threshold, which hasn't happened.
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
Oh yes - the country is gagging for No Deal Brexit.....
TSE et al can answer for themselves, but the flight of Tories like them just hands the entryist kippers and nationalists more control.
The Conservative Party is dead, the corpse has just not stopped twitching yet.
I thought YouGov had debunked the theory of entryist Kippers?
Maybe they did - I do not follow every utterance from YouGov, but I am being polite calling the ex-Tory party Kippers.
They have come from somewhere.
"...Nearly 80 percent of those who joined since 2017 support a no-deal Brexit, compared with 60 percent from before 2015, according to research by Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London..."
They have come from the tens of thousands who left the party under Cameron and have now gone back. The Tory party lost almost half its membership - 129,000 members - between 2005 and 2018. They have since gained about half of that back up to May 2019.
So the answer is simple. They are not entryists. They are just Tory party members coming back to the party now it has changed.
Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.
And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.
Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.
What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
Thanks. I knew it was something like that.
So prices won't increase if the pound drops to parity with the dollar, or goes down to 0.8 Euros, because we spend pounds in the shops, not dollars or Euros. And there won't be any goods in the shops from abroad anyway. So the exchange rate really doesn't make any difference.
I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.
It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.
And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?
Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
Pretty sure inflation has been quite high at times over the last decade. Many letters written by the Bank of England Governor on the subject if you care to read them.
Define "quite high".
Look at a 50-year graph of inflation from the seventies to today and tell me that inflation has been quite high over this last decade.
There have been letters written because inflation was marginally outside the [quite narrow by historic standards] thresholds.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
I hope we don’t have to go the whole way with the German analogy!
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
Serves them right, no?
I know you are being ironic Peter but - just for the record - no.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
Is there any sign that the dam might break very suddenly and they would dump Corbyn overnight or does the whole process mitigate against that?
No inflation rising significantly would be inflation significantly above the 3% threshold, which hasn't happened.
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
It rose significantly from where it had been. I mean I know you are an economist an' all so you know these things but take a long, hard look at the chart again and tell me the difference. Plus to be accurate, letters only go in above 3%. It is not a "3% threshold". The target was and is 2%. So it was 1.1% above target.
Elements of the Tories must be starting to feel queasy. Remember, this No Deal lark was originally framed as a mere stand-off: strong, sturdy Boris forcing the Europeans to make the capitulation that was always likely (if only Theresa hadn't been so clueless). No one actually thought he'd go through with it. Now, under Cummings's influence, Boris is positively relishing No Deal. This is heavy stuff!
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
Is there any sign that the dam might break very suddenly and they would dump Corbyn overnight or does the whole process mitigate against that?
The process mitigates against it, Richard. It's unlikely to happen, imo, but would grind exceeding slow even if it did.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
I hope we don’t have to go the whole way with the German analogy!
Tbf the roads are in a shocking state, and as for train punctuality..
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
Serves them right, no?
I know you are being ironic Peter but - just for the record - no.
Lol! Just for the record, I was being ironic and no I wouldn't contemplate it for a moment. But in a fantasy world, the Schadenfreude would be exquisite!
No inflation rising significantly would be inflation significantly above the 3% threshold, which hasn't happened.
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
It rose significantly from where it had been. I mean I know you are an economist an' all so you know these things but take a long, hard look at the chart again and tell me the difference. Plus to be accurate, letters only go in above 3%. It is not a "3% threshold". The target was and is 2%. So it was 1.1% above target.
Indeed 1.1% over target when the bounds we expect is +/- 1% of target.
1.1% over target, or 0.1% over the threshold for writing a letter is not significant.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
Is there any sign that the dam might break very suddenly and they would dump Corbyn overnight or does the whole process mitigate against that?
Thanks to EdM's change to the rules (thanks Ed!) it's in the hands of the members, who remain fiercely loyal, and in extremis would only replace him with an MP from the same wing of the party. Exacerbated by moderate Labour members leaving (e.g. Southam)
Hence the noise around Long-Bailey who wouldn't have a snowballs chance under the old rules.
No inflation rising significantly would be inflation significantly above the 3% threshold, which hasn't happened.
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
It rose significantly from where it had been. I mean I know you are an economist an' all so you know these things but take a long, hard look at the chart again and tell me the difference. Plus to be accurate, letters only go in above 3%. It is not a "3% threshold". The target was and is 2%. So it was 1.1% above target.
Indeed 1.1% over target when the bounds we expect is +/- 1% of target.
1.1% over target, or 0.1% over the threshold for writing a letter is not significant.
It went to 3.1% from below 1% (below 0.5% at the beginning of that year). That is a significant move.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
Serves them right, no?
I know you are being ironic Peter but - just for the record - no.
Lol! Just for the record, I was being ironic and no I wouldn't contemplate it for a moment. But in a fantasy world, the Schadenfreude would be exquisite!
I wouldn’t expect sympathy but it was amusing seeing the language that our host country uses to allow you residency turned on its head. In truth the main worry is health care guaranteed by Spain until the end of 2020 after which it depends on how Spaniards are treated in the UK.
Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.
And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.
Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.
What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
Thanks. I knew it was something like that.
So prices won't increase if the pound drops to parity with the dollar, or goes down to 0.8 Euros, because we spend pounds in the shops, not dollars or Euros. And there won't be any goods in the shops from abroad anyway. So the exchange rate really doesn't make any difference.
I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.
It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.
And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?
Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
Pretty sure inflation has been quite high at times over the last decade. Many letters written by the Bank of England Governor on the subject if you care to read them.
As a matter of fact sterling has lost only about 27% of its value against the dollar in the last decade (and only about 12% of its value since its low point at January 2019 - about the same as the amount it's lost since April 2018).
The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.
It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
In all seriousness though, it may "only" turn out to have a minor impact on shop stuff, and a moderate impact on overseas travel.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
In all seriousness, the most sinful aspect of Labour's attitude on Brexit is that it those people, the ones Labour is supposed to protect, who will be hit first and hardest.
Unforgivable, and it's why they're on 20% in the polls, with no sign of recovery.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
Is there any sign that the dam might break very suddenly and they would dump Corbyn overnight or does the whole process mitigate against that?
Thanks to EdM's change to the rules (thanks Ed!) it's in the hands of the members, who remain fiercely loyal, and in extremis would only replace him with an MP from the same wing of the party. Exacerbated by moderate Labour members leaving (e.g. Southam)
Hence the noise around Long-Bailey who wouldn't have a snowballs chance under the old rules.
Moderate MPs are also shit-scared of reselection and so the increasing chance of a GE mean that they've hunkered down to save their own hide.
No inflation rising significantly would be inflation significantly above the 3% threshold, which hasn't happened.
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
It rose significantly from where it had been. I mean I know you are an economist an' all so you know these things but take a long, hard look at the chart again and tell me the difference. Plus to be accurate, letters only go in above 3%. It is not a "3% threshold". The target was and is 2%. So it was 1.1% above target.
Indeed 1.1% over target when the bounds we expect is +/- 1% of target.
1.1% over target, or 0.1% over the threshold for writing a letter is not significant.
Some of the letters were because of it being below target-
Committee chairman Olivier Lepretre said: “If there is a hard Brexit, I can assure you that not a single kilo of seafood or fish from Britain will get into France.
“We would set up barricades. All the fishermen along the northern French coast will tell you the same thing.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Well, we'll be out of the EU and free to make our own laws then. We can simply bar from entry any such potential returnees who do not have the means to support themselves.
Devaluing currency never did Zimbabwe or Venezuela any harm.
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
Absolutely. Just look how Germany has bounced back from its Weimar days. Sure, there will be a period of painful transitions but we'll recover, just like the Germans did!
I hope we don’t have to go the whole way with the German analogy!
Let's hope we don't get a nationalist leader born in another English-speaking country who's keen to unite the English-speaking world. Oh...
I don't think it is wise to assume that most Party members who voted for Boris and who back this new approach are assuming that the EU will give in. I would estimate that the people I talk to in London are about 50% happy with no deal and outside the M25 much higher. Most of us would like the EU to give in but it cannot be predicted what they will do. They have already shown that they are driven more by political and "solidarity" motives than by economic analysis (the euro being Exhibit 1). We shall see. But in the meantime I am amazed at the level of certainly being mouthed on both sides of the debate. All we know is what we can do. We don't know what the other side will do for certain in any negotiation.
The "37-40% support no-deal" figures are coming out to play again, I see.
A mountain of more extensive sub-polls over the last three years, as has been discussed almost ad nauseam on here, has found that the no-deal figure always clusters closer to 30%, or indeed less, when it is again explained to a subsection of about 10% that "no deal" does not in fact mean "no substantial change". A key uninformed 10% think that there are no need for new deals with the EU to maintain our roughly current in and outgoing trading relationships while leaving.
What is going is that the government and its outriders are in fact crucially relying on this uninformed ten per cent to derive legitimacy for a no-deal Brexit.
Committee chairman Olivier Lepretre said: “If there is a hard Brexit, I can assure you that not a single kilo of seafood or fish from Britain will get into France.
“We would set up barricades. All the fishermen along the northern French coast will tell you the same thing.
Committee chairman Olivier Lepretre said: “If there is a hard Brexit, I can assure you that not a single kilo of seafood or fish from Britain will get into France.
“We would set up barricades. All the fishermen along the northern French coast will tell you the same thing.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
- “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” (net wrong to leave)
Scotland +42 London +24 Rest of South England +7 Midlands and Wales -5 North of England-6
GB +8
BJ is trying to grab the North while chucking away the South + Scotland. They’ll probably tell him to get stuffed: the North cos they hate his party, the South cos they hate him, and Scots cos we hate both.
(YouGov / The Times Survey Results Sample Size: 1628 GB Adults Fieldwork: 5th - 6th August 2019)
Boris leads Corbyn by a huge 45% to 15% margin as preferred PM in the South in the same poll, he leads Corbyn too 38% to 21% in the North, 41% to 16% in the Midlands and Wales.
Boris even leads Corbyn 31% to 28% in Scotland and 30% to 24% in London
But doesn't much of the SE prefer Ms Swinson to either...
In a few places like Guildford and Lewes and St Albans maybe buy not enough to reverse the huge Tory majority in the SE especially with fear of Corbyn trumping fear of No Deal (and the SE narrowly voted Leave anyway)
You either missed or didn’t understand the Worcester by-election result, then.
Worcester is a Tory v Labour marginal which saw a Labour to Tory swing last night yes
Oh yes - the country is gagging for No Deal Brexit.....
TSE et al can answer for themselves, but the flight of Tories like them just hands the entryist kippers and nationalists more control.
The Conservative Party is dead, the corpse has just not stopped twitching yet.
I thought YouGov had debunked the theory of entryist Kippers?
Maybe they did - I do not follow every utterance from YouGov, but I am being polite calling the ex-Tory party Kippers.
They have come from somewhere.
"...Nearly 80 percent of those who joined since 2017 support a no-deal Brexit, compared with 60 percent from before 2015, according to research by Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London..."
They have come from the tens of thousands who left the party under Cameron and have now gone back. The Tory party lost almost half its membership - 129,000 members - between 2005 and 2018. They have since gained about half of that back up to May 2019.
So the answer is simple. They are not entryists. They are just Tory party members coming back to the party now it has changed.
It does look that way.
The YouGov article was before the leadership election. It suggested that 21% of eligible members had joined since the 2017 election. YouGov found that the vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%), and that 77% of those who joined between 2015 and 2017 said they would vote for Boris, compared with 63% of those who joined before 2015.
Those percentages are very similar to the no-deal percentages above.
So perhaps Boris support approximates to No Deal support?
Sterling probably going to hit a 35-year low today.
And that's with the betting markets still making No Deal only a 40% chance.
Sterling has lost about 16% of its value against the dollar since the referendum.
What do people thing will happen if we go all the way and make No Deal an accomplished fact? Parity with the dollar? One pound = 0.8 Euros?
I’m feeling pretty sick already stop rubbing it in!
We've been told on good authority that it won't matter a bit, because we eat food, not money. (Is that right? It was something like that.)
No its that we earn our income in sterling and as consumers pay our bills [even for imports] in sterling. Currency fluctuations are just not that big of a deal.
Thanks. I knew it was something like that.
So prices won't increase if the pound drops to parity with the dollar, or goes down to 0.8 Euros, because we spend pounds in the shops, not dollars or Euros. And there won't be any goods in the shops from abroad anyway. So the exchange rate really doesn't make any difference.
I had trouble understanding that before, but it seems much clearer now.
Prices will increase, marginally, which we can measure as inflation.
It is inflation that measures price changes, not sterling.
Thank you. We're so lucky to have people here who can explain such technical matters as what inflation is.
And also to assure us authoritatively that prices will increase only "marginally." Just so that we can profit from your prophetic abilities to the full, perhaps you could also tell us just how low sterling is going to go.
It will, that's how it works. Show me the massive spike we got in inflation last time the pound fell please?
Sterling has lost about 40% of its value in the last decade, but we have had consistently under control and low inflation over that decade. Because sterling is not a measure of inflation you idiot.
Temper, temper!
But what I asked you for wasn't another of your predictions about the past, but one about the future.
How low are you assuming sterling will go after a No Deal Brexit, when you give us your authoritative assurance that prices will increase only "marginally"?
Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
This is the problem. There is not an unlimited set of choices. At some point MPs need to grow up, hold their noses and vote for the least unpalatable option.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
In other words, as expected, the next attempt by MPs to "take control" is going to be even more shambolic than the previous ones.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
Oh - the UK health and social services - the vast majority of those who'd have to return are older and often in poor health. I have 'friends who became resident 2 years ago and have clogged up the Spanish health system on an almost daily basis since. They voted leave! They are typical of those who may have to return.
As a matter of fact sterling has lost only about 27% of its value against the dollar in the last decade (and only about 12% of its value since its low point at January 2019 - about the same as the amount it's lost since April 2018).
The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.
It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.
You do realise CPI is supposed to rise over a decade?
Target CPI is 2% per annum. That compounded is 22% over a decade.
CPI has risen by a compound average of about 2.1% per annum over the past decade.
So your numbers show Sterling has fallen 27% over a decade and during the decade the average is to be 0.1% away from target. Not 0.1% more than the 3% letter threshold the average is to be 0.1% off target!
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
Even the SNP?
I'm sure the Lib Dems would 100% insist on his replacement.
But I would have thought the SNP would allow him to be PM - especially as he would likely allow an Indy referendum - whereas a replacement like Starmer might well not.
But coming back to Chuka's comments - are there 20, 30 or 40 Lab MPs who would suddenly finally come out of the woodwork and block him? They have gone along with him as Leader of Opposition - but might they draw the line at him becoming PM?
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
In other words, as expected, the next attempt by MPs to "take control" is going to be even more shambolic than the previous ones.
There is already precedent for this. Gordon Brown's head was the price the Lib Dems demanded for negotiating with Labour in 2010. They got it (and still chose to go with the Tories - though in fairness that was always the much more stable option numerically).
As a matter of fact sterling has lost only about 27% of its value against the dollar in the last decade (and only about 12% of its value since its low point at January 2019 - about the same as the amount it's lost since April 2018).
The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.
It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.
You do realise CPI is supposed to rise over a decade?
Target CPI is 2% per annum. That compounded is 22% over a decade.
CPI has risen by a compound average of about 2.1% per annum over the past decade.
So your numbers show Sterling has fallen 27% over a decade and during the decade the average is to be 0.1% away from target. Not 0.1% more than the 3% letter threshold the average is to be 0.1% off target!
First, can you correct your bizarre misstatement about sterling having lost 40% of its value over a decade?
That was completely untrue. Sorry, but you can't just dance on to the next round of misinformation and diversionary nonsense.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
If Labour need the support of another party to form a government, then unless Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings change dramatically, that other party is going to make his replacement as candidate for Prime Minister a precondition of support.
And how is that to be achieved?
Either you end up with the Labour party machinery and the government in two different pairs of hands; or you require the Labour party to dump someone who's just led them back to government and select someone else as leader - with that person being chosen (completely against Labour processes), not by the membership but by a different party.
After an election, Corbyn can almost certainly play the same game as he's playing re a VoNC - back me or else the Tories / No Deal becomes the outcome.
Speaking as someone whose salary is set in usd and then transfers into GBP I am quite happy.
Speaking as someone whose pension is set in £s and transfers to €s I am not. However, I am well enough off to survive - many of my fellow English immigrants to the EU are not. If they al have to head back to the UK God help you.
Felix, who exactly is the 'you' that you have in mind there?
He means those living in the UK as penniless ex immigrants return from EU countries. Many of whom are of retirement age with medical conditions and will strain the NHS and who won’t have any capital to buy property because the housing market herme may collapse because too many properties go on the market at the same time. Like Felix I have a good cushion but many who came out on just the state pension when it was 1.5 will be struggling now.
Quite - and cheap as the living can be over here - it would be very difficult indeed to survive on a typical OAP.
Comments
As for that vaunted Republican messaging which HYUFD and friends put so much faith in...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/theyre-afraid-suburban-voters-in-red-states-threaten-gops-grip-on-power/2019/08/08/86b12410-b868-11e9-bad6-609f75bfd97f_story.html
McBath reminded the nation this week what led her to run for office and of her fight for stricter gun control.
On Wednesday, a staffer for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, accused McBath of “fundraising off the mass shootings” and doing “anything for a quick buck” — drawing scorn for using dismissive language about the mother of a black teenager who was shot and killed by a white man for playing his music too loudly at a Florida gas station in 2012....
Only additional cost to the people was the need to purchase a larger wheelbarrow.
0.1% excess inflation for 2 month. That is what you consider significant?
Just think of poor Scots who are going to be paid in Scottish Groats in a few years time if Nicola and her cohorts get their way.
Trouble is, there are millions of people with very little disposable income at the end of the month, so a small rise in living costs pretty much wipes out the ability to save.
Still, all worth it, I'm sure.
I consider 0.1% excess inflation for 2 months to be marginal. If you have some other definition of marginal for me to use I'd love to know what that is.
Edit: here it is again
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7340823/Farting-politician-shuts-Kenyan-parliament.html
We Brexited and we remained within target bounds only exceeding it on 2 months and only by 0.1%.
They have come from somewhere.
"...Nearly 80 percent of those who joined since 2017 support a no-deal Brexit, compared with 60 percent from before 2015, according to research by Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London..."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/world/europe/brexit-conservative-party.html
I hope we don’t have to go the whole way with the German analogy!
If 38% of the population supports No Deal (equating to at least 40% in England) and they turn out and vote Tory at the upcoming election, it will be a bloodbath for Labour MPs.
20%, after *years* of the current shit-show. They'd be on a higher number if they were led by a tailor's dummy, and I'm not sure I'm even joking.
The cowardice of the PLP has been appalling.
The only way in which your claim possibly works is that both Peel and Boris are in government and trying to deliver something - but that's a slim parallel.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news?NewsTypes=09f8960ebc384e3589da5349744916ae&Taxonomies=7af03071367c4a5d80cfb86f9c954759&InfiniteScrolling=False&Direction=Latest
Serves them right, no?
...My wife spends in GBP
Got it in one
East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir - Conservative hold
based on first preference votes
Conservative
2,212
35.0%
+6.0%
SNP
1,866
29.5%
+3.5%
Labour
1,359
21.5%
-12.2%
Liberal Democrat
774
12.2%
+5.0%
UKIP
108
1.7%
Total votes
6,319
81%
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 9% since 2017 with SNP to Conservative 1¼% also since 2017
Inflation trending within bounds consistently is not a significant rise.
So the answer is simple. They are not entryists. They are just Tory party members coming back to the party now it has changed.
Look at a 50-year graph of inflation from the seventies to today and tell me that inflation has been quite high over this last decade.
There have been letters written because inflation was marginally outside the [quite narrow by historic standards] thresholds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49278999
It's all too late anyway.
1.1% over target, or 0.1% over the threshold for writing a letter is not significant.
Hence the noise around Long-Bailey who wouldn't have a snowballs chance under the old rules.
The CPI has risen by about 24% over the last decade.
It's probably best to check the "facts" coming from the extreme Brexit lot.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/letter/2015/governor-letter-120215.pdf?la=en&hash=E209D9ED2F85E6101DA6A8AF0BF5725B83B94689
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1159833571218952193
“We would set up barricades. All the fishermen along the northern French coast will tell you the same thing.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/french-fishermen-threaten-to-block-uk-so-no-fish-can-get-in-after-nodeal-brexit-115151448.html
You have failed. Your punishment is to write a letter.
Carney - Grrrrr, I hate writing letters, plus it's a symbol of my failure.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/ulster-farmers-union-rubbishes-claims-of-nodeal-brexit-cattle-cull-38385998.html
A mountain of more extensive sub-polls over the last three years, as has been discussed almost ad nauseam on here, has found that the no-deal figure always clusters closer to 30%, or indeed less, when it is again explained to a subsection of about 10% that "no deal" does not in fact mean "no substantial change". A key uninformed 10% think that there are no need for new deals with the EU to maintain our roughly current in and outgoing trading relationships while leaving.
What is going is that the government and its outriders are in fact crucially relying on this uninformed ten per cent to derive legitimacy for a no-deal Brexit.
However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a “substantial minority” of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister.
“The problem there is with the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking up the role of leading an emergency government is he cannot command a majority among his own MPs, never mind others like Conservative rebels who would refuse to give him confidence,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“I know, because I have spoken to them. There is a substantial minority of Labour MPs at the very least who simply would not countenance Jeremy Corbyn being the prime minister of this country. So the question is, is there a figure who, as an alternative, could command a majority?”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election
Does this also beg the question what might happen if Labour had most seats (so could govern with the SNP) post a GE?
The YouGov article was before the leadership election. It suggested that 21% of eligible members had joined since the 2017 election. YouGov found that the vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%), and that 77% of those who joined between 2015 and 2017 said they would vote for Boris, compared with 63% of those who joined before 2015.
Those percentages are very similar to the no-deal percentages above.
So perhaps Boris support approximates to No Deal support?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/11/does-conservative-party-have-problem-entryism
https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1159840941621989377
Target CPI is 2% per annum. That compounded is 22% over a decade.
CPI has risen by a compound average of about 2.1% per annum over the past decade.
So your numbers show Sterling has fallen 27% over a decade and during the decade the average is to be 0.1% away from target. Not 0.1% more than the 3% letter threshold the average is to be 0.1% off target!
Nothing has changed.
I'm sure the Lib Dems would 100% insist on his replacement.
But I would have thought the SNP would allow him to be PM - especially as he would likely allow an Indy referendum - whereas a replacement like Starmer might well not.
But coming back to Chuka's comments - are there 20, 30 or 40 Lab MPs who would suddenly finally come out of the woodwork and block him? They have gone along with him as Leader of Opposition - but might they draw the line at him becoming PM?
That was completely untrue. Sorry, but you can't just dance on to the next round of misinformation and diversionary nonsense.
Either you end up with the Labour party machinery and the government in two different pairs of hands; or you require the Labour party to dump someone who's just led them back to government and select someone else as leader - with that person being chosen (completely against Labour processes), not by the membership but by a different party.
After an election, Corbyn can almost certainly play the same game as he's playing re a VoNC - back me or else the Tories / No Deal becomes the outcome.