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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance
The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead.
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Great rant from Tommy Lee. At least no one could accuse him of being part of the liberal luvvie elite.
https://twitter.com/katgordon/status/1159424371389108224?s=20
We could very quickly see crossover in this market.
Though of course if the EU believes that No Deal will happen and blink offering a better deal then that could make No Deal less likely again.
It's what happens next that might prove more serious. Are people prepared for October 31st? If not what happens if the fruticakes currently ruining, er, running the country do take us out with no deal?
April -0.5%
May +0.2%
June n/c
Little evidence of that to date, certainly not enough to bet on it. A BJ climb down would certainly top the Brexit Entertaining Moments Charts which is already full of bangers.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1159747505787158529
HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes
George Monbiot the Guardian September 2014 'Scots voting No to independence would be an astonishing act of self harm', no surprise Jenkins has joined him
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
Monbiot was right and many in Scotland predicted that if they agreed to be doormats and vote NO that Westminster would not be long in making them pay, and so it proved. They have been putting the boot in ever since.
The Saj must commit to ending stockpiling boom and bust (though I guess No Deal will sort that out).
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1159736756322938880?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7859/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-brexit-betting-moves-closer-and-closer-to-no-deal-now-a/p1
"UK economy contracts as Brexit slowdown bites"
https://tinyurl.com/y4nwa6dy
It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.
May tried that. Look where it got her.
The EU will not have limitless patience.
Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)
Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.
So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.
If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
"children as young as 16"
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/aug/08/schoolchildren-in-china-work-overnight-to-produce-amazon-alexa-devices
"citizens aged 16 and 17"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-voting-age-time-to-lower-it-to-16
US +0.5
Euro Area +0.2
Japan +0.4
UK -0.2.
Loving that Brexit dividend.
The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
So effectively this is a bet on whether parliament has the means and will to take back control. That is very uncertain, but if anything I would say that the market is underestimating the risk of crash-out.
* I forget who said this, but it was one of the political journalists.
** https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/08/no-10-refuses-to-rule-out-election-shortly-after-31-october-brexit
America is in a world of its own, and our growth and recovery has been better than Japan's and the euro area over the last decade.
You should compare just one year.
Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
The Brexithating Broadcasting Corporation are leading their bulletins describing the figures as terrible
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1159697653195837440
But the contempt of u-turning would be a different order of magnitude to the consequences of leaving with no deal.
Boris Johnson's concern is Boris Johnson. What burnishes his destined Churchillian legacy, and what tarnishes it?
If the UK leaves and flourishes he'll claim to be Moses reborn. If we leave and flounder, his legacy is a wreckage.
He wants to be liked. An admirable trait, in a spaniel. Or a whore. But not in a Prime Minister.
So, where does a desire to be liked lead an egocentric buffoon?
It strikes .e there will probably be a short term poll boost for the Tories even if with livestock burning in the fields.
Meanwhile the forces opposed to Brexit in the commons seem to be descending into their own moderates Vs Corbynites war. Twas ever thus
If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.
Relatively not a bad result for Labour, although clearly no excitement without the LibDems
I made the point when the date was chosen that the original date (29/3) was sensibly a Friday, so we would exit on a Friday night then have the weekend and then start normal life outside the EU.
Whereas the EU's chosen date is a Thursday night, which means we exit - have Friday for some reason, then the weekend. Making the Friday a bank holiday - can be a public celebration of our independence day - means we've got a long weekend to start things off with.
When do I pick up my rationing card?
Yes, that's right kids, a conservative government.
Having a majority opposed to no deal is no use on its own. Without consulting the public parliament and government signed up to a treaty making no deal the default position for anyone in any circumstances wanting to leave the EU. Shame we can't wave Bogdanor's Harry Potter wand and legislate retrospectively to reverse. If those wanting to avoid no deal, and avoid TMs deal wish to do so they had better stop keeping their positive plan such a secret.
BTW, the EU's most sensible plan would be (as they can under Art 50) to offer an unlimited extension subject to our acceptance. That then places Boris in a position where transferring the blame becomes harder.
The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
And by which means?
Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
Ireland is about to run out of beef.
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/beef-plan-protesters-have-just-hours-to-shut-down-demonstrations-or-face-legal-action-38388394.html
If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.
Poland says send them here
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/trumps-praesidentschaft/usa-verschaerfen-drohungen-mit-truppenabzug-aus-deutschland-16325042.html
Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.
Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.
The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.
What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.