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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    I've just had Priti Patel's constituents Summer newsletter. Don't know why I don't block it; always annoys me. Very laudatory about Johnson, and the quotes are from before she was made Home Sec.

    Thankfully I'm not on Philip Davies' mailing list!
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.


    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
    We'll be saving 350 million quid per week - "quids in" - who needs economic theory when you've got hard accounts data.
    You sound like the kind of person who would look at their personal finances and decide to leave their job to be quids in on the petrol money.
    Touchy subject for me - I've only had one decently paid job and even that was below median. Travel expenses can be a huge burden to those on min wage. But to be clear - I have never quit a job to cut down on travel expenses.

    There was one time I even worked 40 hours for a net minus 200 pw once my hostel costs were taken into account (NFA, as I have previously mentioned)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Let us pray.
    It would also however make matters even worse in Venezuela, improbable though that may seem.
  • Wow. This surprised me - from The Express of all places. Basically: the EU is completely prepared for No Deal, have sussed the government's chicaneries and Boris is stuffed.


    And it is Mr Johnson’s tactical posturing that leaves Brussels thankful that its no-deal Brexit preparations are up to scratch.

    Eurocrats believe that their planning far outweighs the contingency work undertaken by the British Government under Theresa May.

    One EU source said: “Brussels will stand fast on the backstop and the issue of no deal because our contingency planning is way further advanced than Britain’s.

    “We are prepared to offer financial support for Ireland and other frontline countries – including France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

    “There have been no signs of member states wanting to take a different approach or even considering divide and rule to prevent no deal.”


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1160249/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ireland-backstop-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update

    May was crap. Not sure that's news?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I've just had Priti Patel's constituents Summer newsletter. Don't know why I don't block it; always annoys me. Very laudatory about Johnson, and the quotes are from before she was made Home Sec.

    Did she use the phrase "quite frankly"?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Those medium term “quids in” prospects must be why investors are lining up to put a their money in Britain.

    Oh wait, they’re not.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
    We'll be saving 350 million quid per week - "quids in" - who needs economic theory when you've got hard accounts data.
    Idiotic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Off topic:

    Arçelik is a company controlled by Koç Holding.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arçelik

    Well it amused me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.


    In Brecon there were a lot of unhappy Tory remainers, a fair few of whom switched to the LibDems.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Let us pray.
    It would also however make matters even worse in Venezuela, improbable though that may seem.
    Unless it finally brings down the dictatorship there.
  • Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.

    It's 4 in total isn't it:

    Nabavi
    Herdson
    Big G
    TSE

    Any more?
    I'm going the other way. Not formally rejoined yet but I was a member 2004-2016, quit due to May and intend to rejoin now.

    Gutted I won't be going to Conference this year. I think it would be lots of fun.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited August 2019

    *Raises hand*

    There is less demand because markets like guaranteed safe havens more than uncertainty. Even if things are going well. Which is why it is a meaningless metric.

    Just as credit rating is a meaningless metric too. It is a subjective measurement.

    What is real rather than subjective is actual economic indicators. Inflation, wages, employment for people.

    A better indication than credit rating is looking at gilt yields. UK 10 year gilt yield is currently a record low below 0.5% which shows remarkable confidence that the gilts are still a safe haven not a concern. It isn't as extreme as the negative yield of German gilts but it is still safe.

    Wow, the market must be REALLY confident about Japanese prospects, as their ten year yield is -0.2%.

    And they must be really sceptical about the US, where yields are a massive 1.6%. And that's nothing compared to the panic in China where they're 2.3%.

    Bond yields measure at least the following:

    1. Confidence about future economic growth. Lower bond yields mean the market expects lower future growth.

    2. Risk of default

    3. Risk of money printing, or inflation, erasing the real value of debt.

    3a. Risk of the government being unable to print money.

    4. General appetitie for risk.

    In the case of UK Gilts, the market is unconcerned about default, because the BoE has expressed a willingess to buy unlimited amounts of bonds. But it's also expressing concern about the likely future level of economic growth, which is why our bond yields are nearer Japan's (200+% debt-to-GDP) than the US or China.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Let us pray.
    MORE refugees?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Why do you think they are starting to invest heavily in renewables ?
    Saudi Arabia might actually become a solar energy giant, as it's one of the best locations on the planet for solar.
    Good place to locate energy intensive industry.

    A recent bit of analysis was very bearish for the longer term:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Threat-That-Will-Send-Oil-Down-To-10.html#
    Oil prices will need to trade at around $9 to $10 per barrel in the long run if gasoline is going to be able to compete with electric vehicles and renewable energy....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    rcs1000 said:

    *Raises hand*

    There is less demand because markets like guaranteed safe havens more than uncertainty. Even if things are going well. Which is why it is a meaningless metric.

    Just as credit rating is a meaningless metric too. It is a subjective measurement.

    What is real rather than subjective is actual economic indicators. Inflation, wages, employment for people.

    A better indication than credit rating is looking at gilt yields. UK 10 year gilt yield is currently a record low below 0.5% which shows remarkable confidence that the gilts are still a safe haven not a concern. It isn't as extreme as the negative yield of German gilts but it is still safe.

    Wow, the market must be REALLY confident about Japanese prospects, as their ten year yield is -0.2%.

    And they must be really sceptical about the US, where yields are a massive 1.6%. And that's nothing compared to the panic in China where they're 2.3%.

    Bond yields measure at least the following:

    1. Confidence about future economic growth. Lower bond yields mean the market expects lower future growth.

    2. Risk of default

    3. Risk of money printing, or inflation, erasing the real value of debt.

    3a. Risk of the government being unable to print money.

    4. General appetitie for risk.

    In the case of UK Gilts, the market is unconcerned about default, because the BoE has expressed a willingess to buy unlimited amounts of bonds. But it's also expressing concern about the likely future level of economic growth, which is why our bond yields are nearer Japan's (200+% debt-to-GDP) than the US or China.
    Did you prefer Morton or Wilpers :) ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    edited August 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Let us pray.
    It would also however make matters even worse in Venezuela, improbable though that may seem.
    Unless it finally brings down the dictatorship there.
    Bad though Maduro is, civil war would be worse. Civil war without the possibility of economic resurgence would be more difficult still.

    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting set of figures:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/

    Perhaps a good way to get a handle on whose support is likely to go where, as candidates flatlining in the polls drop out.

    It is. Basically Sanders has very little overlap with other candidates. And Kamala Harris appears to be very "transfer friendly".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I've just had Priti Patel's constituents Summer newsletter. Don't know why I don't block it; always annoys me. Very laudatory about Johnson, and the quotes are from before she was made Home Sec.

    Thankfully I'm not on Philip Davies' mailing list!
    Know the enemy!
  • There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    Both no deal and remain are methods of walking away, and both are better than the undemocratic backstop.

    However in the context of a negotiation revocation is unreasonable. Like it or not the EU is our opposition in this negotiation and they want us to remain. Saying "give us a good deal or we will do exactly what you want" is unreasonable so remain has to be off the table.
    You're wrongly characterising negotiation as an adversarial or zero sum game.

    Negotiations seldom end with a winner and a loser. They either end in a deal which has something in it for all parties, or in a mutual realisation that there is no deal to be done which has those characteristics.

    If an acceptable deal can't be reached to leave which has enough in it for both parties, the answer isn't to leave in a way that maximises damage to both sides. Indeed, that's a ludicrous position and to say the very least a high risk negotiating strategy. The answer is to say, "the best deal we can get isn't as good as we hoped - so let's revoke and stick with the status quo". It's embarrassing, sure, but it isn't nihilistic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.

    It's 4 in total isn't it:

    Nabavi
    Herdson
    Big G
    TSE

    Any more?
    I'm going the other way. Not formally rejoined yet but I was a member 2004-2016, quit due to May and intend to rejoin now.

    Gutted I won't be going to Conference this year. I think it would be lots of fun.
    Conference is in Nuremberg this year, isn't it?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Most of them would be prepared to sacrifice their great-grandchildren
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting set of figures:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/

    Perhaps a good way to get a handle on whose support is likely to go where, as candidates flatlining in the polls drop out.

    It is. Basically Sanders has very little overlap with other candidates. And Kamala Harris appears to be very "transfer friendly".
    You missed his bestie Gabbard - she's got to be worth half percent or so on Sanders' total.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Why do you think they are starting to invest heavily in renewables ?
    Saudi Arabia might actually become a solar energy giant, as it's one of the best locations on the planet for solar.
    Good place to locate energy intensive industry.

    A recent bit of analysis was very bearish for the longer term:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Threat-That-Will-Send-Oil-Down-To-10.html#
    Oil prices will need to trade at around $9 to $10 per barrel in the long run if gasoline is going to be able to compete with electric vehicles and renewable energy....
    Thanks for the link. What worries me is that the population of Saudi Arabia in 1980 was 9.7 million, and is now about 34.1 million. They might not be able to control their own population without oil revenues.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    The loons will never let go of their pathetic war fantasy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Gibraltar lends itself more to jingoism and sabre rattling against "Spanish-speaking countries".
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting set of figures:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/

    Perhaps a good way to get a handle on whose support is likely to go where, as candidates flatlining in the polls drop out.

    It is. Basically Sanders has very little overlap with other candidates. And Kamala Harris appears to be very "transfer friendly".
    Hence FiveThirtyEight's story "Is the field too big for Kamala Harris?" She desperately needs that winnowing as she's a lot of people's second choice.

    Warren also does well on that, but the person she needs to drop out most is Sanders, who's a cussed old bastard in the Corbyn mould, and almost certainly won't oblige.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    I don't recall milk being rationed during or just after WWII. Are things expected to get that bad?
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    I don't recall milk being rationed during or just after WWII. Are things expected to get that bad?
    Maybe just best to stick to Carling

    Remember Yoons, let's show Nicola and her cohorts we mean business-

    #Carling4Tennents4indyref2
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,167
    edited August 2019

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    We don't import fresh milk in appreciable volumes BUT we import other products made using raw milk such as butter and cheese.

    So the argument would be that rises in the price of cheese and butter mean British raw milk is diverted into making that, reducing the domestic supply of fresh milk (as indeed happened in WW2).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,055

    Wow. This surprised me - from The Express of all places. Basically: the EU is completely prepared for No Deal, have sussed the government's chicaneries and Boris is stuffed.


    And it is Mr Johnson’s tactical posturing that leaves Brussels thankful that its no-deal Brexit preparations are up to scratch.

    Eurocrats believe that their planning far outweighs the contingency work undertaken by the British Government under Theresa May.

    One EU source said: “Brussels will stand fast on the backstop and the issue of no deal because our contingency planning is way further advanced than Britain’s.

    “We are prepared to offer financial support for Ireland and other frontline countries – including France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

    “There have been no signs of member states wanting to take a different approach or even considering divide and rule to prevent no deal.”


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1160249/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ireland-backstop-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update

    Those Diehard Remaniacs at the Express... 😎
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    [...] at 16% the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world meaning it heavily relies on imports – with the overwhelming majority (98%) of UK dairy imports coming from the EU.

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/consulting-reports/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-dairy-sector
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    AndyJS said:
    Nowt to do with Brexit.

    The UK TOCs suspect some are abusing the system to get round season tickets and have an alternative 'BritRail Pass' available.

    UK residents can still InterRail in Europe - from Eurostar in London onwards and European residents can still InterRail as far as Eurostar in London - then get a BritRail pass.

    Lots of misinformed #FBPE Twitter wailing and gnashing of ticket punches going on.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    The fact people still genuinely think we’ll have 350m a week to spend after Brexit is just laughable. It really is.

    If anything it’s going to be -350m a week when you include all the no deal softeners and new state subsidies.
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    We don't import fresh milk in appreciable volumes BUT we import other products made using raw milk such as butter and cheese.

    So the argument would be that rises in the price of cheese and butter mean British raw milk is diverted into making that, reducing the domestic supply of fresh milk.
    Carling it is then

    #Carling4Tennents4indyref2
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    *Raises hand*

    There is less demand because markets like guaranteed safe havens more than uncertainty. Even if things are going well. Which is why it is a meaningless metric.

    Just as credit rating is a meaningless metric too. It is a subjective measurement.

    What is real rather than subjective is actual economic indicators. Inflation, wages, employment for people.

    A better indication than credit rating is looking at gilt yields. UK 10 year gilt yield is currently a record low below 0.5% which shows remarkable confidence that the gilts are still a safe haven not a concern. It isn't as extreme as the negative yield of German gilts but it is still safe.

    Wow, the market must be REALLY confident about Japanese prospects, as their ten year yield is -0.2%.

    And they must be really sceptical about the US, where yields are a massive 1.6%. And that's nothing compared to the panic in China where they're 2.3%.

    Bond yields measure at least the following:

    1. Confidence about future economic growth. Lower bond yields mean the market expects lower future growth.

    2. Risk of default

    3. Risk of money printing, or inflation, erasing the real value of debt.

    3a. Risk of the government being unable to print money.

    4. General appetitie for risk.

    In the case of UK Gilts, the market is unconcerned about default, because the BoE has expressed a willingess to buy unlimited amounts of bonds. But it's also expressing concern about the likely future level of economic growth, which is why our bond yields are nearer Japan's (200+% debt-to-GDP) than the US or China.
    I knew you would respond. :)

    The question posed was not about growth prospects, but about credit worthiness. 2, 3, 3a and 4 are all related to the question of credit worthiness which is why I used this as a real measurable metric. Now of course that's not the full story, but it is relevant. If the UK was not credit worthy as @Peter_the_Punter implied then our gilt rates would be considerably higher.

    Yes I would say the UK is more credit worthy and less risky than China. And America has both higher growth and also the Fed reserve while cutting rates still has rates considerably higher than in Europe which is worth mentioning.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    What are the odds on an outbreak of bubonic plague?
  • rcs1000 said:

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
    Considering the previous peak was a deficit of over 10% of GDP, a 1% deficit now is equivalent to a surplus in normal circumstances.
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    We don't import fresh milk in appreciable volumes BUT we import other products made using raw milk such as butter and cheese.

    So the argument would be that rises in the price of cheese and butter mean British raw milk is diverted into making that, reducing the domestic supply of fresh milk.
    Carling it is then

    #Carling4Tennents4indyref2
    I don't actually think such rationing would be terribly likely in the short term as dairy processors tend to use forward contracts to secure supplies in the medium term, so fresh milk production might fall longer term but not immediately. Indeed, in WW2, milk was rationed some time after imported products like sugar and petrol (although not that long after).
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    [...] at 16% the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world meaning it heavily relies on imports – with the overwhelming majority (98%) of UK dairy imports coming from the EU.

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/consulting-reports/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-dairy-sector
    Nice try - but dairy import deficit is clearly referring to cheese (great to know we're still buying so much of the british stuff, but I do like my brie etc.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    [...] at 16% the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world meaning it heavily relies on imports – with the overwhelming majority (98%) of UK dairy imports coming from the EU.

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/consulting-reports/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-dairy-sector
    For 'EU' read 'Ireland'?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019
    Given Boris still has a 29% higher favourability rating than Corbyn I doubt it will bother him too much.

    Boris also has a 66% favourable rating with Tories and a 62% favourable rating with Leavers who will be the core of his election winning coalition.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    What are the odds on an outbreak of bubonic plague?
    What with global warming its the plague of locusts I'm watching out for.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    What are the odds on an outbreak of bubonic plague?
    I thought there were cases of it from time to time.. Indeed Google says this just for the USA...…………….


    In recent decades, an average of seven human plague cases have been reported each year (range: 1–17 cases per year). Between 1900 and 2012, 1006 confirmed or probable human plague cases occurred in the United States.
  • There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    Both no deal and remain are methods of walking away, and both are better than the undemocratic backstop.

    However in the context of a negotiation revocation is unreasonable. Like it or not the EU is our opposition in this negotiation and they want us to remain. Saying "give us a good deal or we will do exactly what you want" is unreasonable so remain has to be off the table.
    You're wrongly characterising negotiation as an adversarial or zero sum game.

    Negotiations seldom end with a winner and a loser. They either end in a deal which has something in it for all parties, or in a mutual realisation that there is no deal to be done which has those characteristics.

    If an acceptable deal can't be reached to leave which has enough in it for both parties, the answer isn't to leave in a way that maximises damage to both sides. Indeed, that's a ludicrous position and to say the very least a high risk negotiating strategy. The answer is to say, "the best deal we can get isn't as good as we hoped - so let's revoke and stick with the status quo". It's embarrassing, sure, but it isn't nihilistic.
    Negotiations are not zero sum [if they were no deal would ever be made] but they most definitely are or can be adversarial. At its simplest example if you are haggling with someone over price then you are clearly adversarial but a deal is only reached if the seller and buyer are both happy with the price. If you start haggling with someone and you tell them - I will buy what you're selling no matter what now give me a good price, what do you think will happen next?

    Saying we will remain if they don't give us a good deal is that.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    viewcode said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    In your many emails on the previous thread, you found it difficult to comprehend that the value of Sterling should exercise people's minds when what is important to them is wages, employment et al. Apologies if somebody has already pointed it out, but the wages of many non-Leavers are paid in Sterling.

    The wages AND* expenses of both leavers and remainers are paid in Sterling. So that's a moot point. That is why inflation matters.

    * Some people chose to live in one country and be paid from another. That's an extreme minority, their own extreme choice and their own responsibility.
    People who choose to work abroad are extremists? You really are the Brexiteer gift that keeps on giving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.

    I know of ex UKIP members now back and active in the Tories who might have gone Brexit Party if it was not for Boris becoming leader
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    We don't import fresh milk in appreciable volumes BUT we import other products made using raw milk such as butter and cheese.

    So the argument would be that rises in the price of cheese and butter mean British raw milk is diverted into making that, reducing the domestic supply of fresh milk.
    Carling it is then

    #Carling4Tennents4indyref2
    I don't actually think such rationing would be terribly likely in the short term as dairy processors tend to use forward contracts to secure supplies in the medium term, so fresh milk production might fall longer term but not immediately. Indeed, in WW2, milk was rationed some time after imported products like sugar and petrol (although not that long after).
    Checked and yes we did. Of course as a child I got my 1/3rd of a pint free at school. National Dried Milk was available on coupons I now recall for infants.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:
    Nowt to do with Brexit.

    The UK TOCs suspect some are abusing the system to get round season tickets and have an alternative 'BritRail Pass' available.

    UK residents can still InterRail in Europe - from Eurostar in London onwards and European residents can still InterRail as far as Eurostar in London - then get a BritRail pass.

    Lots of misinformed #FBPE Twitter wailing and gnashing of ticket punches going on.....
    Nothing to do with Brexit but still a crappy decision.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
    Considering the previous peak was a deficit of over 10% of GDP, a 1% deficit now is equivalent to a surplus in normal circumstances.
    That's a fair point.

    But it still doesn't change the fact that UK debt-to-GDP has risen from 34.3% to 87.4%. That 50 percentage point rise is more than France or Italy or Germany or even Ireland. It is better than Greece's however, so we should probably pat ourselves on the back, and say "well done".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019
    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Gibraltar voted almost 100% to stay in the UK in their referendum on the subject compared to the 55% of Scots who wanted to stay in the UK.

    Indeed more Leavers wanted to keep Gibraltar than Scotland or NI in that poll you talk about (plus it makes for sunnier holidays, Antrim with sunshine and proud to be British and full of union jacks and no ranting Nats)
  • Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Milk? Since when did we import Milk? I'm laying that - what bookmaker?
    [...] at 16% the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world meaning it heavily relies on imports – with the overwhelming majority (98%) of UK dairy imports coming from the EU.

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/business-and-consultancy/consulting/consulting-reports/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-dairy-sector
    For 'EU' read 'Ireland'?
    Actually, we both import and export a huge amount of dairy products with Ireland. They account for 30% of imports BUT also account for about 60% of exports (albeit this is a smaller cake than the import cake). The big NET imports are from France and Germany, even though they send less to the UK than Ireland do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    Will the Govt bring back 'mousetrap' cheese. Rock solid but IIRC it toasted reasonably.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    I can't imagine it would be logistically possible to organise food rationing by the end of the year. In a way I'd be reassured if it were otherwise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    But if we didn't have a government committed to border guards and 'keeping out Johnny Foreigner' heads would have been banged together.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
    And look really stupid when 20% of the population who don't have smartphones can't get food.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
    A good casein point.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,167
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    Will the Govt bring back 'mousetrap' cheese. Rock solid but IIRC it toasted reasonably.
    There was "Government Cheese" in WW2, a not massively pleasant form of cheddar that basically maximised nutrition per litre of raw milk at the expense of quality. It rather screwed variety in cheesemaking in the UK for some time afterwards.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    Both no deal and remain are methods of walking away, and both are better than the undemocratic backstop.

    However in the context of a negotiation revocation is unreasonable. Like it or not the EU is our opposition in this negotiation and they want us to remain. Saying "give us a good deal or we will do exactly what you want" is unreasonable so remain has to be off the table.
    You're wrongly characterising negotiation as an adversarial or zero sum game.

    Negotiations seldom end with a winner and a loser. They either end in a deal which has something in it for all parties, or in a mutual realisation that there is no deal to be done which has those characteristics.

    If an acceptable deal can't be reached to leave which has enough in it for both parties, the answer isn't to leave in a way that maximises damage to both sides. Indeed, that's a ludicrous position and to say the very least a high risk negotiating strategy. The answer is to say, "the best deal we can get isn't as good as we hoped - so let's revoke and stick with the status quo". It's embarrassing, sure, but it isn't nihilistic.
    It would be if it was a purely business discussion. The issue is that we have an instruction from the voters.

    If you try to revoke (with or without the fig leaf of a second referendum) a very significant minority of the population is going to feel that the government does not have legitimacy and doesn't care about the voters. That causes incalculable damage to the fabric of a society.

    Unfortunately if there is no deal to be done, then we have to leave without a deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1159027396386938881

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    Boris does not need Farage to disappear just to take the Brexit Party down to 10% or so enabling a Tory majority as the Tories got in 2015 even with UKIP on 12%.

    The Tories could not win with the Brexit Party on around 20%+ as they were polling under May but they can win if the Brexit Party are polling only around 10 to 15% as they are now
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
    Considering the previous peak was a deficit of over 10% of GDP, a 1% deficit now is equivalent to a surplus in normal circumstances.
    That's a fair point.

    But it still doesn't change the fact that UK debt-to-GDP has risen from 34.3% to 87.4%. That 50 percentage point rise is more than France or Italy or Germany or even Ireland. It is better than Greece's however, so we should probably pat ourselves on the back, and say "well done".
    Lord Copper, you might also like to mention that current debt to GDP is 134% in Italy and 99.7% in France and the UK at 85.3% is a smidge below the EU average. Nothing to boast about, to be sure, and much worse than Germany or Ireland (who really did take their medicine) in the 60s - but we could be worse...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
    A good casein point.
    Perhaps you need to relax and unrind.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
    And look really stupid when 20% of the population who don't have smartphones can't get food.
    No, we don't want people to go hungry. That would be sub-optimal for the Boris-Brexit brand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
    A good casein point.
    Perhaps you need to relax and unrind.
    That grates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
    And look really stupid when 20% of the population who don't have smartphones can't get food.
    No, we don't want people to go hungry. That would be sub-optimal for the Boris-Brexit brand.
    Although come to think of it, Cummings and Johnson are in charge.

    You're right, they will use apps and fuck it all up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    Will the Govt bring back 'mousetrap' cheese. Rock solid but IIRC it toasted reasonably.
    There was "Government Cheese" in WW2, a not massively pleasant form of cheddar that basically maximised nutrition per litre of raw milk at the expense of quality. It rather screwed variety in cheesemaking in the UK for some time afterwards.
    That was the stuff; for years after the war it was either that, or Danish Blue!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Gibraltar voted almost 100% to stay in the UK in their referendum on the subject compared to the 55% of Scots who wanted to stay in the UK.

    Indeed more Leavers wanted to keep Gibraltar than Scotland or NI in that poll you talk about (plus it makes for sunnier holidays, Antrim with sunshine and proud to be British and full of union jacks and no ranting Nats)
    37% of English voters would cancel Brexit to keep Gibraltar, compared to just 35% who would cancel Brexit to keep Scotland and only 31% who would cancel Brexit to keep Northern Ireland

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-poll-english-voters-rather-lose-scotland-than-gibraltar-1-4741280
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
    A good casein point.
    Perhaps you need to relax and unrind.
    That grates.
    OK, I admit it, I'm toasted.

    That's a rare bit from me.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
    My position on the Union is very simple: I think it is valuable and beneficial to all parties. I would never vote for England to leave the United Kingdom.

    But, despite my Irish, Welsh and Scottish heritage I shouldn't have a say on whether Scotland, for example, leaves. If they vote to do so then that is a matter for them. I'd be disappointed but wish them well.

    So the question never arises.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Charles said:



    It would be if it was a purely business discussion. The issue is that we have an instruction from the voters.

    If you try to revoke (with or without the fig leaf of a second referendum) a very significant minority of the population is going to feel that the government does not have legitimacy and doesn't care about the voters. That causes incalculable damage to the fabric of a society.

    Unfortunately if there is no deal to be done, then we have to leave without a deal.

    But there is probably a deal to be done just not with the red lines May imposed added to the red lines the GFA also created without anyone realising.

    The thing is that without starting again we ain't going to get there - which is why a second referendum is the only sane way out of this mess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
    Considering the previous peak was a deficit of over 10% of GDP, a 1% deficit now is equivalent to a surplus in normal circumstances.
    That's a fair point.

    But it still doesn't change the fact that UK debt-to-GDP has risen from 34.3% to 87.4%. That 50 percentage point rise is more than France or Italy or Germany or even Ireland. It is better than Greece's however, so we should probably pat ourselves on the back, and say "well done".
    Lord Copper, you might also like to mention that current debt to GDP is 134% in Italy and 99.7% in France and the UK at 85.3% is a smidge below the EU average. Nothing to boast about, to be sure, and much worse than Germany or Ireland (who really did take their medicine) in the 60s - but we could be worse...
    You make an excellent point.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
    And look really stupid when 20% of the population who don't have smartphones can't get food.
    Given the government's lamentable record with outsourced IT projects, we should be lucky if 20 per cent can get food.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    I can't imagine it would be logistically possible to organise food rationing by the end of the year. In a way I'd be reassured if it were otherwise.
    That would show a level of competency well above the current government's achievements. Heck actually understanding a very short act (granted it's the FTPA but it's not exactly long) seems to be beyond them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:



    It would be if it was a purely business discussion. The issue is that we have an instruction from the voters.

    If you try to revoke (with or without the fig leaf of a second referendum) a very significant minority of the population is going to feel that the government does not have legitimacy and doesn't care about the voters. That causes incalculable damage to the fabric of a society.

    Unfortunately if there is no deal to be done, then we have to leave without a deal.

    But there is probably a deal to be done just not with the red lines May imposed added to the red lines the GFA also created without anyone realising.

    The thing is that without starting again we ain't going to get there - which is why a second referendum is the only sane way out of this mess.
    Sure - deal or no deal is fine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?

    The PMIs in the UK are flashing recession. They are flashing red almost everywhere.

    And economies are at their rosiest, just before they head downhill. (See summer of 2008 in the US, Spain or Greece.)

    All the measures you are talking about are backward looking ones. Unemployment, for example, is a real lagging indicator, with firms' hiring typically lagging economic output by a quarter or so.

    Now, PMIs can be misleading. Almost certainly, people are spooked by the China-US trade fights. They're spooked by Brexit. And that can cause temporary falls in confidence.

    But if you were to ask yourself what economic indicators would normally be signalling in the very late stages of an economic expansion, then you'd probably say:

    "Ooohhh... well, I'd expect employment to be running close to full. I'd expect real wage growth ahead of external demand. I'd expect narrowing corporate margins. I'd expect consumer borrowing to be rising faster than economic output. I'd expect depressed household savings rates, and a large current account deficit"

    You'd probably also predict that - as a result of government prudence throughout the cycle - the government would be running a small surplus, and that government debt-to-GDP would have fallen 20-30% from the previous peak.

    But, hey, you can't have everything.
    Considering the previous peak was a deficit of over 10% of GDP, a 1% deficit now is equivalent to a surplus in normal circumstances.
    That's a fair point.

    But it still doesn't change the fact that UK debt-to-GDP has risen from 34.3% to 87.4%. That 50 percentage point rise is more than France or Italy or Germany or even Ireland. It is better than Greece's however, so we should probably pat ourselves on the back, and say "well done".
    Lord Copper, you might also like to mention that current debt to GDP is 134% in Italy and 99.7% in France and the UK at 85.3% is a smidge below the EU average. Nothing to boast about, to be sure, and much worse than Germany or Ireland (who really did take their medicine) in the 60s - but we could be worse...
    You make an excellent point.
    How do we measure up on total debt, rather than government debt?

    Says a man with a house two-thirds of which is mortgaged.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    I wonder how the dairy rationing will work. The government could look really modern and techie if, instead of issuing paper coupons, it developed some kind of app.
    And look really stupid when 20% of the population who don't have smartphones can't get food.
    Given the government's lamentable record with outsourced IT projects, we should be lucky if 20 per cent can get food.
    Now that is very true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    12/1 the government will officially announce food rationing this year

    11/1 on Milk

    125/1 on Prosecco

    Man the barricades in Notting Hill if they ration Good Brie.
    Brie I can take or leave. If they ration Cheddar than every politician who voted against the WA needs to write their will.
    It's enough to make your gorge rise.
    I'm feeling blue after that pun.
    A good casein point.
    Perhaps you need to relax and unrind.
    That grates.
    OK, I admit it, I'm toasted.

    That's a rare bit from me.
    Feta compli.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    But if we didn't have a government committed to border guards and 'keeping out Johnny Foreigner' heads would have been banged together.
    The combination of privatised rail company greed and not caring about the terrible signal we send to the rest of the world both sadly symptomatic of where we are as a country.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:



    How do we measure up on total debt, rather than government debt?

    Says a man with a house two-thirds of which is mortgaged.

    I'm impressed. Never realised that banks would only lend against part of a property.

    What happens if you default? They take your floor and move it somewhere else?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
    My position on the Union is very simple: I think it is valuable and beneficial to all parties. I would never vote for England to leave the United Kingdom.

    But, despite my Irish, Welsh and Scottish heritage I shouldn't have a say on whether Scotland, for example, leaves. If they vote to do so then that is a matter for them. I'd be disappointed but wish them well.

    So the question never arises.
    You don't have to actively choose to force the issue. It's like saying, "I'd never leave my wife. If she decides not to accompany me when I relocate to a Patagonian sheep farm, that's entirely a matter for her."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    How do we measure up on total debt, rather than government debt?

    Says a man with a house two-thirds of which is mortgaged.

    I'm impressed. Never realised that banks would only lend against part of a property.

    What happens if you default? They take your floor and move it somewhere else?
    That would be quite fun. Saves working out where to put the furniture. Although if the floor's gone it would be a bugger getting the beds to stay on the first floor.

    I meant of course that I have a mortgage equivalent to two-thirds of its market value.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019

    But if we didn't have a government committed to border guards and 'keeping out Johnny Foreigner' heads would have been banged together.
    Who was Transport Secretary up till a fortnight ago? Of course it's a Grayling mess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
    If the only thing keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK is membership of the European Union it is not much of a Union anyway, though in Scotland at least even the Ashcroft poll now still only has 46% backing independence once don't knows are included despite Brexit
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    It proved correct.
    He's currently working from No.10, writing crazy columns for their front page.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
    If the only thing keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK is membership of the European Union it is not much of a Union anyway, though in Scotland at least even the Ashcroft poll now still only has 46% backing independence once don't knows are included despite Brexit
    It's 48 to 52pc when don't knows are included.

    The Union is in danger. Let's fight for it the best way we know how-

    #Carling4Tennents4indyref2
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,738
    That would be the final demolition of the house the Berrys built.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:



    Unfortunately Venezuela is at the stage where there are no easy outcomes or pleasant solutions. But there are ways things could deteriorate further.

    So like Brexit then

    [NB: this is a joke. I haven't changed my views]
    More seriously, returning to @TOPPING's question about the price of Brexit, if it was a choice between Brexit and the union, would you choose Brexit? I know you previously said you didn't believe that was the choice.
    If the only thing keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK is membership of the European Union it is not much of a Union anyway, though in Scotland at least even the Ashcroft poll now still only has 46% backing independence once don't knows are included despite Brexit
    "If you don't want to live on a Patagonian sheep farm with me, it's not much of a marriage anyway."
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1159027396386938881

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    Boris does not need Farage to disappear just to take the Brexit Party down to 10% or so enabling a Tory majority as the Tories got in 2015 even with UKIP on 12%.

    The Tories could not win with the Brexit Party on around 20%+ as they were polling under May but they can win if the Brexit Party are polling only around 10 to 15% as they are now
    To be sure that's why Johnson's policy is to make the Conservative Party into a not so pale shadow of the Brexit Party. Problem is, he's now at the mercy of Farage who is quite happy to destroy Johnson just as Johnson wants to destroy him.
This discussion has been closed.