I am surprised, actually, at how poor Johnson’s polling is and how weak his “bounce”. And look at how his NHS funding announcement collapses.
It also feels like the media, having built him up, and keen to take him down. Also, having Cummings suggest he a potential coup d’etat seems to have been a bridge too far for some, and incensed others.
Still, it’s silly season. Most of the public are on a beach somewhere. September is when shit gets real.
I am not surprised by the poor polling Boris is experiencing. I am aware of whole families who used to vote Tory who will not vote for that idiot! Brexiteer Tories seem to think voters who usually support Labour and were Leavers will support him but I think this fundamentally misjudges why these people voted for Leave and will never vote Tory. It just goes to show how out of touch the nutters in office are that they even think Labour voters in historically Labour seats will support a party led by a man who thinks the rich should have more money!
I don't think Johnson's polling is at all poor. He's pushed up the Conservatives' share by about 10% or so, and I expect it will rise a bit further.
I would expect his rating to be hitting 80% + among Conservatives and Leavers shortly.
I think he's lecherous and unprincipled, but on this forum, people completely overstate the hatred that the public have for him, because they hate him.
Not really. He is utterly reviled by former Tory voters and I don't see any Labour Leaver's voting for Johnson or theTories in the 'forthcoming' election. This is probably as good as it gets for Boris and the Tories...
I don't think he is utterly reviled.
This forum is full of people who won't forgive him for betraying David Cameron in 2016. But, that's quite a niche section of the electorate.
It's also full of people made to look fools by saying "lay the favouritre" - whilst touting their ever-so-clever 100-1 losing bets....
Alistair Meeks said "You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also."
Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
No, but I’m reading Heartland - growing up among the working poor in Kansas - which is very interesting and explains a lot
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.
But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.
When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.
Thank you! Glad to get someone else involved who knows what they're talking about.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
Generally I would expect that hotels >> rent on a per diem basis, as is eating when you're eating out when on holiday rather than cooking from cheaper ingredients. You may also be doing further travelling within the country you're visiting (car hire >> car ownership) and so on, and so forth.
At the risk of overly revealing my personal finances, the holiday was ~ €2400 (Or €2000 or so if you exclude flights which I'll admit were £ priced though it's arguable they are fundamentally in € with Lufthansa the carrier) 1000 € hotel, the rest on train tickets, art gallery entrances, drink and good food. We don't spend £5k a month on everything here... These figures will skew proportionately more toward a higher proportion as you head south on the income scale would be my guess.
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.
F*cking hell.
So are you upset that those on minimum wage are gaining?
Wage growth is an average for the whole country and yes the poor are gaining more, so by definition on average those not on minimum wage must be averaging something below 3.4% [or 3.6% excluding bonuses] but they're still gaining. If they weren't, the average couldn't be that high.
And the collorary to minimum wage going up too fast is unemployment rising. That isn't happening. The fact minimum wage has gone up by 3% in real terms [4.9% nominally] while unemployment continues to fall is remarkable.
Alistair Meeks said "You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also."
Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Look to your own sins, for once. You really love to moralise about your political opponents.
Alistair Meeks said "You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also."
Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
Generally I would expect that hotels >> rent on a per diem basis, as is eating when you're eating out when on holiday rather than cooking from cheaper ingredients. You may also be doing further travelling within the country you're visiting (car hire >> car ownership) and so on, and so forth.
Absolutely I completely agree, so you spend more disposable income per day abroad than you do at home. But you spend your non-disposable income each day whether home or abroad at home.
Disposable income isn't all your income. Rents, rates, utilities etc are still payable whether home or abroad.
A hotel didn't have to be much more expensive than your rent for it to cost you more, as a proportion of your expenditure on accommodation, than as a proportion of the days you are paying for it, even though you will still be paying for your rent on days you aren't using it. So I'm pretty confident your point is consequently wrong.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Thank goodness we have people like you upholding our social fabric and civic decency.
You're wrong because you're assuming ceteris paribus, the first mistake of real world economics. Ceteris paribus isn't real. You say they are just made up figures but they're not made up figures, I quoted a real figure. Your wage growth staying the same while inflation changes figure was made up.
Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.
Current UK inflation: 1.9% Current UK wage growth: 3.4% Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.
Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1% Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5% Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.
The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.
Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.
I'm sorry but they were made up figures. You gave two hypothetical examples for me to compare. Unless you have access to a parallel universe they could not be applying at the same time to the same economy. You can not compare two different economies or two different time periods to prove a point.
You may be an economist, but I am a mathematician and that is a definite no no.
To make examples we work with hypotheticals. You may be a mathematician but the idea of varying inflation while holding wages the same is garbage - every economist knows that when inflation changes wages change too ultimately, which can be a nasty circle and there are many warnings about that in history. Think about it, people look at inflation when negotiating wage changes.
Minimum Wage earners not earning bonuses have seen their wage grow far faster than anyone else on average and far faster than inflation. Real wages for those on the National Minimum Wage have gone up 3% this year. That's real wages not nominal and that is real figures not made up.
OK Philip I give up.
By the way I accept your point re inflation/wages, but I'm not sure I challenged that point really. In the example I gave (following from your example) the inflation dropped, so there would not be a knock on increase in wages.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Look to your own sins, for once. You really love to moralise about your political opponents.
Perhaps if my "political opponents" weren't moral vacuums who enthusiastically fell in behind a campaign of xenophobic lies and would do it all over again, there would be no need to moralise about them.
By the way I accept your point re inflation/wages, but I'm not sure I challenged that point really. In the example I gave (following from your example) the inflation dropped, so there would not be a knock on increase in wages.
Thank you. My point is that ultimately inflation and wage changes do in the real world tend to go up and down together. One both reacts to, and causes the other, which can lead to quite vicious feedback loops if one or both become problematic.
When the economy is strong people negotiate real wage increases, when the economy is struggling companies offer real wage pay cuts by freezing wages below inflation. What matters is the differential, not one figure in isolation.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.
But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.
When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.
Tell the people of Zimbabwe that it means nothing to have a currency other people don't value. Sure, we're a long way from there, but we're travelling in the wrong direction.
Yes, it would make things worse to try and fix the currency at an artificially high level by decree, but over the long-term, and excepting the resource curse effect, you can view the value of a currency as a measure of the strength of an economy.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Look to your own sins, for once. You really love to moralise about your political opponents.
Perhaps if my "political opponents" weren't moral vacuums who enthusiastically fell in behind a campaign of xenophobic lies and would do it all over again, there would be no need to moralise about them.
You really are the just pharisee.
You spit venom at your opponents and think you are the most moral of men.
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.
F*cking hell.
So are you upset that those on minimum wage are gaining?
Wage growth is an average for the whole country and yes the poor are gaining more, so by definition on average those not on minimum wage must be averaging something below 3.4% [or 3.6% excluding bonuses] but they're still gaining. If they weren't, the average couldn't be that high.
And the collorary to minimum wage going up too fast is unemployment rising. That isn't happening. The fact minimum wage has gone up by 3% in real terms [4.9% nominally] while unemployment continues to fall is remarkable.
Of course I’m not upset. However using it assess the impact of Brexit on the British economy is pretty pointless due to the fact it is government mandated.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Thank goodness we have people like you upholding our social fabric and civic decency.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
It’s such an eye opener for me. It seems obvious when you think about it now: in 1933 Nazi Germany was not what it was in 1939. Many people thought Hitler’s rise to power was a blip, something that had to be worked through, before normality could return.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.
But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.
When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.
Tell the people of Zimbabwe that it means nothing to have a currency other people don't value. Sure, we're a long way from there, but we're travelling in the wrong direction.
Yes, it would make things worse to try and fix the currency at an artificially high level by decree, but over the long-term, and excepting the resource curse effect, you can view the value of a currency as a measure of the strength of an economy.
I have no idea, but it is an astute move politically to try to buy off American farmers hit by the Trump Trade War. It brings loads of the Midwest back into contention.
Biden should still be the favourite, but Warren has a genuine and good chance. Laying the snot out of Harris has me in decent shape right now on this market.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
For cricket obsessives, there is also this:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/06/field-of-shadows-by-dan-waddell-review/ ...At the darker end of this book’s territory, Dan Waddell provides good evidence that the Germans sent their best ever cricketer to his death in Auschwitz (he’d made the mistake of being Jewish). Team spirit was also a problem: one player responded to a fielder dropping a catch off his bowling by marching over and felling him with a right hook. The MCC tourists later advised their hosts that this might not be the best way forward. ‘Yes, I have heard about the incident,’ replied an official. ‘But I understand it was a very simple catch.’
The book is too good, however, to trade in simplistic myths. We’re reminded that the Nazi flag was flown during a 1937 Davis Cup tennis match at Wimbledon. Later that summer the MCC players gave the Hitler salute in Berlin...
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.
F*cking hell.
So are you upset that those on minimum wage are gaining?
Wage growth is an average for the whole country and yes the poor are gaining more, so by definition on average those not on minimum wage must be averaging something below 3.4% [or 3.6% excluding bonuses] but they're still gaining. If they weren't, the average couldn't be that high.
And the collorary to minimum wage going up too fast is unemployment rising. That isn't happening. The fact minimum wage has gone up by 3% in real terms [4.9% nominally] while unemployment continues to fall is remarkable.
Of course I’m not upset. However using it assess the impact of Brexit on the British economy is pretty pointless due to the fact it is government mandated.
Which is why I didn't use that originally, I used average wages and the employment rate. It was you that asked for any evidence that applied to the North East and the difference between as you put it executives and plebs. Executive bonuses are below that, plebs minimum wage is above it.
Smart play tonight by Philip Thompson introducing olive oil prices into the brexit/currency debates. He knows how to hit Remainers where it hurts.
You are the one patronising Northerners by suggesting we don’t buy olive oil. It’s pathetic. You may be surprised to know that working class northerners also drive BMWs, wear designer clothes, and occasionally buy meal deals from Waitrose.
Well - and there is a chance this post won't age well - but if she is the candidate then we are looking at four more years of the Racist In Chief.
I am green but barely.
Probably so, so I am getting on her for candidate, not POTUS.
She might just do it though, depending on the economy. I wonder what Raabs trade deal prospects would look like when the USA has a grain, soybean and beef mountain.
Biden should still be the favourite, but Warren has a genuine and good chance. Laying the snot out of Harris has me in decent shape right now on this market.
Warren is organised; Biden isn’t, and never has been. Could still go either way, and neither are inevitable yet.
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
Thank goodness we have people like you upholding our social fabric and civic decency.
Smart play tonight by Philip Thompson introducing olive oil prices into the brexit/currency debates. He knows how to hit Remainers where it hurts.
You are the one patronising Northerners by suggesting we don’t buy olive oil. It’s pathetic. You may be surprised to know that working class northerners also drive BMWs, wear designer clothes, and occasionally buy meal deals from Waitrose.
Serious sense of humour failure here. You're not still sore about buying Billy Whitehurst from us are you.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
The Remainer olive oil versus Leaver Greggs argument is particularly ridiculous. ...
... but let me pitch in. You can buy a bottle of extra virgin olive oil in Lidl for less than the cost of a Greggs ham sandwich. It lasts much longer and tastes better too.
Smart play tonight by Philip Thompson introducing olive oil prices into the brexit/currency debates. He knows how to hit Remainers where it hurts.
Olive Oil is actually quite interesting. The EU tariffs for Olives are zero, the EU tariffs for Olive oil are 30%. So what happens is the Spanish and Italian producers buy North African Olives to make oil and market it as Spanish or Italian oil, EU rules allow this as the economic input is in those countries.
The 30% tariff stops the North African countries from selling olive oil in the EU. So if the UK set the Oilve oil tariff at 0% then we could import Olive oil from North Africa at a lower price than EU oilve oil.
Has the added benefit of allowing the North African countries to move up the added value chain and created better paid jobs than harvesters.
Smart play tonight by Philip Thompson introducing olive oil prices into the brexit/currency debates. He knows how to hit Remainers where it hurts.
You are the one patronising Northerners by suggesting we don’t buy olive oil. It’s pathetic. You may be surprised to know that working class northerners also drive BMWs, wear designer clothes, and occasionally buy meal deals from Waitrose.
Serious sense of humour failure here. You're not still sore about buying Billy Whitehurst from us are you.
I have no idea, but it is an astute move politically to try to buy off American farmers hit by the Trump Trade War. It brings loads of the Midwest back into contention.
Really? Will the good old boys in Macey's Rib Joint in PA be voting for a wonk?
And wait till Trump tears into the Medicare For All plan.
Us NHS users can't see the issue, but taking millions of US employee private health insurance policies away from people is going to cause independent voters to get nervous.
Trump vs Warren at debates would be the contest of the century but I fear she will lose the GE.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
It’s such an eye opener for me. It seems obvious when you think about it now: in 1933 Nazi Germany was not what it was in 1939. Many people thought Hitler’s rise to power was a blip, something that had to be worked through, before normality could return.
In similar vein I’d recommend Klemperer’s diaries, as a Jewish man living the life of the frog in the pan. It has the advantage of being entirely contemporaneous, without the benefit of any added hindsight; the reader knows where history is heading but the writer did not. The level of denial, hoping for the best, and the story of how a normal life can be turned into a nightmare by a series of small steps, is remarkable. He was lucky and survived, originally through connections and subsequently because Dresden was bombed the night before he was due to be deported east.
Biden should still be the favourite, but Warren has a genuine and good chance. Laying the snot out of Harris has me in decent shape right now on this market.
Warren is organised; Biden isn’t, and never has been. Could still go either way, and neither are inevitable yet.
So clearly the future WTO tariffs regime is either of no importance or that you are all like me completely unsure what it means. I have tried since this afternoon to raise the issue but it seems to have got lost in bull cheese.
Evening old chap. It is something that holds a great deal of interest to me but I didn't see your messages amongst all the other postings on here today. What was the point you were raising?
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
It’s such an eye opener for me. It seems obvious when you think about it now: in 1933 Nazi Germany was not what it was in 1939. Many people thought Hitler’s rise to power was a blip, something that had to be worked through, before normality could return.
The Holocaust was a long way away. The relentless violence, and the closure, or co-option, of rival political institutions was well under way.
I have no idea, but it is an astute move politically to try to buy off American farmers hit by the Trump Trade War. It brings loads of the Midwest back into contention.
Biden should still be the favourite, but Warren has a genuine and good chance. Laying the snot out of Harris has me in decent shape right now on this market.
Warren is organised; Biden isn’t, and never has been. Could still go either way, and neither are inevitable yet.
Warren now at 3.85
I’m long Warren, and short Harris too. Time to take profits, perhaps.
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
Yes, I read it last year. What horrors ahead seems clear in retrospect, but they weren't visible at the time.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
It’s such an eye opener for me. It seems obvious when you think about it now: in 1933 Nazi Germany was not what it was in 1939. Many people thought Hitler’s rise to power was a blip, something that had to be worked through, before normality could return.
The Holocaust was a long way away. The relentless violence, and the closure, or co-option, of rival political institutions was well under way.
I don't think we face anything like that.
A fundamental difference is that 1930s German had lots of people with weapons and lots of men in their 30 and 40s brutalised by WWI.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we arar. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
So is that sorted then? The next PB meet up is in a Welsh nudist colony in the rain, with a ban on olive oil?
As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we arar. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
So is that sorted then? The next PB meet up is in a Welsh nudist colony in the rain, with a ban on olive oil?
As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...
Corbyn's popularity knows no depths "JCorbyn’s latest YouGov figure has a net minus of minus 50%." Is there any other Labour leader in history this low?
As I have repeatedly said those Stalinist's at his top table and the Party's Hard Left NEC & the Praetorian Guard called Momentum running Labour are not interested in government power and the MP's of that party are now jointly complicit in this cult of political cowardice & gutless disinterest in the winning of power. We are watching a theatre of the absurd.
Comments
Another Leaver not prepared to face up to the implications of his own words. The predictability of their cowardly scuttling from their own saloon bar prejudices would be amusing if it were not so disgusting.
These figures will skew proportionately more toward a higher proportion as you head south on the income scale would be my guess.
Wage growth is an average for the whole country and yes the poor are gaining more, so by definition on average those not on minimum wage must be averaging something below 3.4% [or 3.6% excluding bonuses] but they're still gaining. If they weren't, the average couldn't be that high.
And the collorary to minimum wage going up too fast is unemployment rising. That isn't happening. The fact minimum wage has gone up by 3% in real terms [4.9% nominally] while unemployment continues to fall is remarkable.
Look to your own sins, for once. You really love to moralise about your political opponents.
You need help.
The Weimar film season on BFI player is good too. It is the Centenary of the Ill-fated Weimar Republic this year. After a rocky start it was prospering by the late Twenties and the Nazis losing votes, then the great stock market crash changed everything.
By the way I accept your point re inflation/wages, but I'm not sure I challenged that point really. In the example I gave (following from your example) the inflation dropped, so there would not be a knock on increase in wages.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1159208125397897217
https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1159079290786451456?s=19
Perhaps if my "political opponents" weren't moral vacuums who enthusiastically fell in behind a campaign of xenophobic lies and would do it all over again, there would be no need to moralise about them.
When the economy is strong people negotiate real wage increases, when the economy is struggling companies offer real wage pay cuts by freezing wages below inflation. What matters is the differential, not one figure in isolation.
Yes, it would make things worse to try and fix the currency at an artificially high level by decree, but over the long-term, and excepting the resource curse effect, you can view the value of a currency as a measure of the strength of an economy.
You really are the just pharisee.
You spit venom at your opponents and think you are the most moral of men.
I am green but barely.
UK target inflation: 2.0%
Zimbabwe inflation "officially" now: 175.66%
Record Zimbabwe inflation: 89.7 sextillion percent.
"A long way from there" is putting it somewhat lightly.
No over the long term you can not do that.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/07/eno-the-emu-north-carolina-wanted
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/06/field-of-shadows-by-dan-waddell-review/
...At the darker end of this book’s territory, Dan Waddell provides good evidence that the Germans sent their best ever cricketer to his death in Auschwitz (he’d made the mistake of being Jewish). Team spirit was also a problem: one player responded to a fielder dropping a catch off his bowling by marching over and felling him with a right hook. The MCC tourists later advised their hosts that this might not be the best way forward. ‘Yes, I have heard about the incident,’ replied an official. ‘But I understand it was a very simple catch.’
The book is too good, however, to trade in simplistic myths. We’re reminded that the Nazi flag was flown during a 1937 Davis Cup tennis match at Wimbledon. Later that summer the MCC players gave the Hitler salute in Berlin...
She might just do it though, depending on the economy. I wonder what Raabs trade deal prospects would look like when the USA has a grain, soybean and beef mountain.
Could still go either way, and neither are inevitable yet.
... but let me pitch in. You can buy a bottle of extra virgin olive oil in Lidl for less than the cost of a Greggs ham sandwich. It lasts much longer and tastes better too.
The 30% tariff stops the North African countries from selling olive oil in the EU. So if the UK set the Oilve oil tariff at 0% then we could import Olive oil from North Africa at a lower price than EU oilve oil.
Has the added benefit of allowing the North African countries to move up the added value chain and created better paid jobs than harvesters.
And wait till Trump tears into the Medicare For All plan.
Us NHS users can't see the issue, but taking millions of US employee private health insurance policies away from people is going to cause independent voters to get nervous.
Trump vs Warren at debates would be the contest of the century but I fear she will lose the GE.
I don't think we face anything like that.
Time to take profits, perhaps.
The US of course has lots of people with weapons.
It’s not long since he was telling Remainers to suck it up, but he seems anti-Boris.
https://twitter.com/jonpayates/status/1159067106228559872?s=21
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1159214002637017090
As I have repeatedly said those Stalinist's at his top table and the Party's Hard Left NEC & the Praetorian Guard called Momentum running Labour are not interested in government power and the MP's of that party are now jointly complicit in this cult of political cowardice & gutless disinterest in the winning of power. We are watching a theatre of the absurd.