The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
You are wasting your time. I've been there and done that.
It appears that the gain I have made on swiss shares I hold quoted in swiss francs is not real nor the increase in the cost of my holiday to Iceland. These are figments of my imagination.
If you're lucky enough to afford foreign shares or foreign holidays then good for you, however ordinary income and expenditure is in Sterling. Whether something is imported or not is immaterial, the price to the end consumer is in Sterling and CPI inflation captures the Sterling price changes.
Most people take foreign holidays.
If you took part n a privatisation or demutualisation of a building society you are likely to receive dividends in Euros (eg BA, A&L, Abbey National, etc). if you work for a company that has an overseas holding company and you are in a share scheme will will receive shares traded on an overseas exchange. This applies to a lot of people (although admittedly in the case you have gained!)
Any product you bought in Asda that was purchased abroad or just had some ingredient from abroad or even if all UK ingredients but was delivered in a truck run on petrol will now cost more. Just looking at the CPI and saying it is say only 2.5% and therefore you are not affected is daft . if the £ hadn't dropped it may have only been 2% so it has cost you more.
I am surprised, actually, at how poor Johnson’s polling is and how weak his “bounce”. And look at how his NHS funding announcement collapses.
It also feels like the media, having built him up, and keen to take him down. Also, having Cummings suggest he a potential coup d’etat seems to have been a bridge too far for some, and incensed others.
Still, it’s silly season. Most of the public are on a beach somewhere. September is when shit gets real.
I am not surprised by the poor polling Boris is experiencing. I am aware of whole families who used to vote Tory who will not vote for that idiot! Brexiteer Tories seem to think voters who usually support Labour and were Leavers will support him but I think this fundamentally misjudges why these people voted for Leave and will never vote Tory. It just goes to show how out of touch the nutters in office are that they even think Labour voters in historically Labour seats will support a party led by a man who thinks the rich should have more money!
I don't think Johnson's polling is at all poor. He's pushed up the Conservatives' share by about 10% or so, and I expect it will rise a bit further.
I would expect his rating to be hitting 80% + among Conservatives and Leavers shortly.
I think he's lecherous and unprincipled, but on this forum, people completely overstate the hatred that the public have for him, because they hate him.
I don't hate him. I am much more instinctively favourably inclined toward him, than to the Joyfinder-General May. Her relative popularity for so long was a mystery to me. Merely commenting on the polling figures as seen.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
And what do they run their trucks on. That is priced in $s.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
Or say I want to buy a new mobile phone. It will be made in the Far East so will I go to the Far East to buy it? No, I buy it locally. I got my mobile phone from Sky Mobile but you might get yours from Carphone Warehouse, or a supermarket, or Vodafone or whoever. And again, I pay for that in Sterling.
It doesn't matter where something is imported from, to the consumer it will be paid for in Sterling and CPI inflation will capture any price changes in Sterling.
Short of foreign holidays, which are a luxury and an exception, I can't think of any reason you need to spend your money not in sterling.
What do Asda buy their olive oil with? Weak sterling makes the olive oil more expensive and that will be passed onto the consumer.
As for foreign holidays being a luxury and an exception...what planet are you on? There were more than 15 million UK visitors to Spain alone last year - that’s nearly a quarter of the population visiting just one country. According to this he average Briton spent 9.8 nights abroad last year, This isn’t the 50s - https://finder.com/uk/outbound-tourism-statistics
The pound has lost about 80% of its value against the dollar over the past century.
Does that mean our standard of living has fallen by 80% over that period?
No, it hasn't. Although it's not an either/or. If the value of the pound had remained stable and we had the same increases in technology and move to light industry and services, we would have the same standard of living and five times the money.
The thing that should most concern Boris Johnson is how few don’t knows there are. He’s a known quantity and he’s cordially loathed by an absolute majority already.
66% of Tories give him a favourable rating and 62% of Leavers
Both figures are low when you consider that these are his home supporters. The Conservative figure especially is low. The 34% of Conservative voters who aren’t convinced will take some holding.
Not whilst the alternative is Corbyn they won't.
Relying on them believing that anthrax is preferable to Ebola is an adventurous strategy.
But that's all that politics is now. A choice between which pile of shit stinks the least.
I live in a Con-Lab swing seat that has been won by the winning party at every general election for forty years save 1992.
If I live here when the next election is called and Johnson and Corbyn are still leading their respective parties I will not vote for either of them.
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
But ASDA bought it in Euros, and it takes more of your Sterling to pay for it than it did previously.
Which is captured in the CPI as you carefully deleted from his post
Yes and the CPI would be lower if it didn't have to capture it and we would all be better off.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
And what do they run their trucks on. That is priced in $s.
It may be, but the same applies. If demand for fuel falls because the market thinks it's too expensive it will become cheaper.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
And what do they run their trucks on. That is priced in $s.
It may be, but the same applies. If demand for fuel falls because the market thinks it's too expensive it will become cheaper.
True, but now we are talking about shrinking the economy as there is no alternative.
I some how don't feel that Philip is suggesting that.
The thing that should most concern Boris Johnson is how few don’t knows there are. He’s a known quantity and he’s cordially loathed by an absolute majority already.
66% of Tories give him a favourable rating and 62% of Leavers
Both figures are low when you consider that these are his home supporters. The Conservative figure especially is low. The 34% of Conservative voters who aren’t convinced will take some holding.
Not whilst the alternative is Corbyn they won't.
Relying on them believing that anthrax is preferable to Ebola is an adventurous strategy.
But that's all that politics is now. A choice between which pile of shit stinks the least.
I live in a Con-Lab swing seat that has been won by the winning party at every general election for forty years save 1992.
If I live here when the next election is called and Johnson and Corbyn are still leading their respective parties I will not vote for either of them.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
Or say I want to buy a new mobile phone. It will be made in the Far East so will I go to the Far East to buy it? No, I buy it locally. I got my mobile phone from Sky Mobile but you might get yours from Carphone Warehouse, or a supermarket, or Vodafone or whoever. And again, I pay for that in Sterling.
It doesn't matter where something is imported from, to the consumer it will be paid for in Sterling and CPI inflation will capture any price changes in Sterling.
Short of foreign holidays, which are a luxury and an exception, I can't think of any reason you need to spend your money not in sterling.
What do Asda buy their olive oil with? Weak sterling makes the olive oil more expensive and that will be passed onto the consumer.
As for foreign holidays being a luxury and an exception...what planet are you on? There were more than 15 million UK visitors to Spain alone last year - that’s nearly a quarter of the population visiting just one country. According to this he average Briton spent 9.8 nights abroad last year, This isn’t the 50s - https://finder.com/uk/outbound-tourism-statistics
It doesn't matter whether ASDA buy their olive oil with sterling, euros, shares, farthings or dollars. What matters is how much they charge consumers for and that is measured in sterling CPI inflation, not ForEx changes.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
The thing that should most concern Boris Johnson is how few don’t knows there are. He’s a known quantity and he’s cordially loathed by an absolute majority already.
66% of Tories give him a favourable rating and 62% of Leavers
Both figures are low when you consider that these are his home supporters. The Conservative figure especially is low. The 34% of Conservative voters who aren’t convinced will take some holding.
Not whilst the alternative is Corbyn they won't.
Relying on them believing that anthrax is preferable to Ebola is an adventurous strategy.
But that's all that politics is now. A choice between which pile of shit stinks the least.
I live in a Con-Lab swing seat that has been won by the winning party at every general election for forty years save 1992.
If I live here when the next election is called and Johnson and Corbyn are still leading their respective parties I will not vote for either of them.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
To be fair, Pembrokeshire does have the most glorious coastline.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
I never said we will stop buying olive oil, I said the price ASDA and others charge us for olive oil is measured in inflation. CPI inflation is not a basket of domestically-produced goods, it is a basket of goods including imports.
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
But ASDA bought it in Euros, and it takes more of your Sterling to pay for it than it did previously.
Which is captured in the CPI as you carefully deleted from his post
So this begs the question: why has inflation not increased substantially? Are businesses taking slimmer margins?
Good question (Hi! You must be new here! Don't worry, we'll have you screaming abuse in no time). Possible explanations include:
Costs are small enough to be absorbed by the internal importers Costs are not being passed on by the external manufacturers Adequate substitutes are available. Population shrinkage cutting demand. Pressures are building up but are being contained temporarily. The good effects of world growth outweigh the bad effects of devaluation
You are correct in your implication that practical evidence is better than theoretical prediction, and it must be noted that both predictions by the antidevaluationists of an inflation pulse and predictions by the prodevaluationists of import/export rebalancing have not yet actually happened: stuff has not exploded in price nor have imports/exports got lots better balanced. We'll just have to wait and see...
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
To be fair, Pembrokeshire does have the most glorious coastline.
As I think I said to HYFUD when he suggested it, it does sound delightful. I'm just not sure we are all going to fit in.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
British rape seed oil is all you need.
And lard.
We were probably slimmer as a nation when we cooked everything in lard and olive oil was used for earache.
What still puzzles some people is that so many old-fashioned Tories should have fallen for such a seedy, treacherous chancer. In fact, I think Johnson has succeeded because of his amorality, not despite it. The transgressive sayer of the unsayable breaks through the carapace of conventional politics with a mixture of humour and vituperation, slang and high-flown rhodomontade. Clowning is part of the act for the leader who wants to reach beyond good and evil in the fashion Nietzsche recommended. A cartoon Superman?
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
The next step for Nigel might be to declare that WTO terms amount to a profound and unacceptable assault on our national freedom. Nigel could arrange a march whose slogan is 'No No No to WTO' for example. Boris would probably feel compelled to fall into line.
"Absolutely nobody is talking about jeopardising our place in the WTO"
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
It may actually surprise you that they are a bit bothered.
We are a magpie culture when it comes to foodstuffs, and such things are staples now even in Brexitstan. Fortunately, I am wealthy enough to buy the decent stuff, but it is not a particularly price sensitive market. A bottle of good oil lasts me a couple of months for the price of a few pints of beer.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
Nobody is talking about banning imports. As for trading with non EU countries, I understand the EU accounts for a reducing percentage of our trade already. That trend may well accelerate.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
You are wasting your time. I've been there and done that.
It appears that the gain I have made on swiss shares I hold quoted in swiss francs is not real nor the increase in the cost of my holiday to Iceland. These are figments of my imagination.
If you're lucky enough to afford foreign shares or foreign holidays then good for you, however ordinary income and expenditure is in Sterling. Whether something is imported or not is immaterial, the price to the end consumer is in Sterling and CPI inflation captures the Sterling price changes.
Most people take foreign holidays.
If you took part n a privatisation or demutualisation of a building society you are likely to receive dividends in Euros (eg BA, A&L, Abbey National, etc). if you work for a company that has an overseas holding company and you are in a share scheme will will receive shares traded on an overseas exchange. This applies to a lot of people (although admittedly in the case you have gained!)
Any product you bought in Asda that was purchased abroad or just had some ingredient from abroad or even if all UK ingredients but was delivered in a truck run on petrol will now cost more. Just looking at the CPI and saying it is say only 2.5% and therefore you are not affected is daft . if the £ hadn't dropped it may have only been 2% so it has cost you more.
Yes inflation might be lower had the £ dropped. But considering the target for inflation is 2.0% and inflation is currently 1.9%, inflation is actually below target not above target.
I never said you're not affected, I said the key metrics are wage growth and inflation - if wage growth is faster than inflation you are gaining, if it is below inflation you are losing.
Would you rather have 1.0% inflation with frozen wages, or 1.9% inflation with a 3% wage rise?
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
..............
altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
Or say I want to buy a new mobile phone. It will be made in the Far East so will I go to the Far East to buy it? No, I buy it locally. I got my mobile phone from Sky Mobile but you might get yours from Carphone Warehouse, or a supermarket, or Vodafone or whoever. And again, I pay for that in Sterling.
It doesn't matter where something is imported from, to the consumer it will be paid for in Sterling and CPI inflation will capture any price changes in Sterling.
Short of foreign holidays, which are a luxury and an exception, I can't think of any reason you need to spend your money not in sterling.
What do Asda buy their olive oil with? Weak sterling makes the olive oil more expensive and that will be passed onto the consumer.
As for foreign holidays being a luxury and an exception...what planet are you on? There were more than 15 million UK visitors to Spain alone last year - that’s nearly a quarter of the population visiting just one country. According to this he average Briton spent 9.8 nights abroad last year, This isn’t the 50s - https://finder.com/uk/outbound-tourism-statistics
It doesn't matter whether ASDA buy their olive oil with sterling, euros, shares, farthings or dollars. What matters is how much they charge consumers for and that is measured in sterling CPI inflation, not ForEx changes.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in...Hartlepool...will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Bbbut...wht will they sautee the monkey in?
Of course you've got to spank it first. But when it's shaved and spanked, what oil do you sm[That's enough - Ed]
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in...Hartlepool...will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Bbbut...wht will they sautee the monkey in?
Of course you've got to spank it first. But when it's shaved and spanked, what oil do you sm[That's enough - Ed]
TMI
And on that slightly disturbing image, I wish the company good night.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
To be fair, Pembrokeshire does have the most glorious coastline...
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
Bernard Jenkin MP is also a nudist! One of the Brexit fanatics...
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
The cognitive dissonance of the right-wing Brexiteer: the left-behind voted Leave because they want radical change, but the economy's doing fine.
Next step: the economy has massive structural issues caused by decades of right-wing government. Only the Tories can fix this.
Firstly, I never said anyone wanted radical change and secondly previously wages were growing below inflation, that was bad. Now wages are growing faster than inflation, that is good.
We haven't had decades of right-wing government, the Tories are still fixing the mess of Gordon Brown and the disaster of 13 years of left-wing government.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
The North East will have a dreadful time with "no Deal" Brexit as it runs a surplus with the EU...
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
What's that got to do with the price of fish olive oil?
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
This isn't rocket science. Let me know when you can get your head around it.
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
You are wasting your time. I've been there and done that.
It appears that the gain I have made on swiss shares I hold quoted in swiss francs is not real nor the increase in the cost of my holiday to Iceland. These are figments of my imagination.
If you're lucky enough to afford foreign shares or foreign holidays then good for you, however ordinary income and expenditure is in Sterling. Whether something is imported or not is immaterial, the price to the end consumer is in Sterling and CPI inflation captures the Sterling price changes.
Most people take foreign holidays.
If you took part n a privatisation or demutualisation of a building society you are likely to receive dividends in Euros (eg BA, A&L, Abbey National, etc). if you work for a company that has an overseas holding company and you are in a share scheme will will receive shares traded on an overseas exchange. This applies to a lot of people (although admittedly in the case you have gained!)
Any product you bought in Asda that was purchased abroad or just had some ingredient from abroad or even if all UK ingredients but was delivered in a truck run on petrol will now cost more. Just looking at the CPI and saying it is say only 2.5% and therefore you are not affected is daft . if the £ hadn't dropped it may have only been 2% so it has cost you more.
Yes inflation might be lower had the £ dropped. But considering the target for inflation is 2.0% and inflation is currently 1.9%, inflation is actually below target not above target.
I never said you're not affected, I said the key metrics are wage growth and inflation - if wage growth is faster than inflation you are gaining, if it is below inflation you are losing.
Would you rather have 1.0% inflation with frozen wages, or 1.9% inflation with a 3% wage rise?
But they are not the options are they? They are just made up figures. So lets say the drop in the £ contributed 0.5% inflation the options are in your 2 examples:
0.5% inflation instead of 1% and 1.4% inflation instead of 1.9% both of which are better than you are offering.
Now both are below the target figure so if you want to get nearer the target figure you would stimulate the economy which would increase the growth figure. Again making people better off.
You say you have an economics degree so what is wrong with what I have just said?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
Bernard Jenkin MP is also a nudist! One of the Brexit fanatics...
I have to worry about him canvassing me naked too? Dear God, do my troubles never end?
What still puzzles some people is that so many old-fashioned Tories should have fallen for such a seedy, treacherous chancer. In fact, I think Johnson has succeeded because of his amorality, not despite it. The transgressive sayer of the unsayable breaks through the carapace of conventional politics with a mixture of humour and vituperation, slang and high-flown rhodomontade. Clowning is part of the act for the leader who wants to reach beyond good and evil in the fashion Nietzsche recommended. A cartoon Superman?
The Clown is something to be surpassed. I teach you the Superclown.
I think the prevalence of various tech goods in the inflationary measures keeps them lower than they otherwise would. Now you can argue that is because the average basket has moved that way, but it is errrr......... convienient. If we get sudden currency shocks the deflation in those tech goods may not last.
I am surprised, actually, at how poor Johnson’s polling is and how weak his “bounce”. And look at how his NHS funding announcement collapses.
It also feels like the media, having built him up, and keen to take him down. Also, having Cummings suggest he a potential coup d’etat seems to have been a bridge too far for some, and incensed others.
Still, it’s silly season. Most of the public are on a beach somewhere. September is when shit gets real.
I am not surprised by the poor polling Boris is experiencing. I am aware of whole families who used to vote Tory who will not vote for that idiot! Brexiteer Tories seem to think voters who usually support Labour and were Leavers will support him but I think this fundamentally misjudges why these people voted for Leave and will never vote Tory. It just goes to show how out of touch the nutters in office are that they even think Labour voters in historically Labour seats will support a party led by a man who thinks the rich should have more money!
I don't think Johnson's polling is at all poor. He's pushed up the Conservatives' share by about 10% or so, and I expect it will rise a bit further.
I would expect his rating to be hitting 80% + among Conservatives and Leavers shortly.
I think he's lecherous and unprincipled, but on this forum, people completely overstate the hatred that the public have for him, because they hate him.
Not really. He is utterly reviled by former Tory voters and I don't see any Labour Leaver's voting for Johnson or theTories in the 'forthcoming' election. This is probably as good as it gets for Boris and the Tories...
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
Bacon, then. Do you know how much of our food, and consumer goods of all sorts, that we import ?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
What's that got to do with the price of fish olive oil?
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
Yes, and if inflation rockets and wages plummet, we're stuffed both ways.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
The cognitive dissonance of the right-wing Brexiteer: the left-behind voted Leave because they want radical change, but the economy's doing fine.
Next step: the economy has massive structural issues caused by decades of right-wing government. Only the Tories can fix this.
Firstly, I never said anyone wanted radical change and secondly previously wages were growing below inflation, that was bad. Now wages are growing faster than inflation, that is good.
We haven't had decades of right-wing government, the Tories are still fixing the mess of Gordon Brown and the disaster of 13 years of left-wing government.
What elements of the 1997-2010 Labour administration were in any way 'left-wing'?
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
The cognitive dissonance of the right-wing Brexiteer: the left-behind voted Leave because they want radical change, but the economy's doing fine.
Next step: the economy has massive structural issues caused by decades of right-wing government. Only the Tories can fix this.
Firstly, I never said anyone wanted radical change and secondly previously wages were growing below inflation, that was bad. Now wages are growing faster than inflation, that is good.
We haven't had decades of right-wing government, the Tories are still fixing the mess of Gordon Brown and the disaster of 13 years of left-wing government.
How is screwing the economy and disrupting the market "fixing the mess"? Brexiteers think you can buck the market and I am telling you that it is foolish to think that a new paradigm in economics can be written when the rest of the world are still governed by the existing rules! Do you get it now? The world does not owe the UK a living and the UK without its economic strength will probably cease to exist....
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
Generally I would expect that hotels >> rent on a per diem basis, as is eating when you're eating out when on holiday rather than cooking from cheaper ingredients. You may also be doing further travelling within the country you're visiting (car hire >> car ownership) and so on, and so forth.
Yes inflation might be lower had the £ dropped. But considering the target for inflation is 2.0% and inflation is currently 1.9%, inflation is actually below target not above target.
I never said you're not affected, I said the key metrics are wage growth and inflation - if wage growth is faster than inflation you are gaining, if it is below inflation you are losing.
Would you rather have 1.0% inflation with frozen wages, or 1.9% inflation with a 3% wage rise?
But they are not the options are they? They are just made up figures. So lets say the drop in the £ contributed 0.5% inflation the options are in your 2 examples:
0.5% inflation instead of 1% and 1.4% inflation instead of 1.9% both of which are better than you are offering.
Now both are below the target figure so if you want to get nearer the target figure you would stimulate the economy which would increase the growth figure. Again making people better off.
You say you have an economy degree so what is wrong with what I have just said?
You're wrong because you're assuming ceteris paribus, the first mistake of real world economics. Ceteris paribus isn't real. You say they are just made up figures but they're not made up figures, I quoted a real figure. Your wage growth staying the same while inflation changes figure was made up.
Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.
Current UK inflation: 1.9% Current UK wage growth: 3.4% Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.
Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1% Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5% Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.
The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.
Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
Alistair Meeks said "You sneered at olive oil. And I repeat the question, since you ducked it, are inner London Remain voters subhuman? Or are things that affect the quality of their lives to be considered also."
Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
What's that got to do with the price of fish olive oil?
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
Yes, and if inflation rockets and wages plummet, we're stuffed both ways.
100% agreed which is why I said we need to keep an eye on inflation and wage growth. How does what you said contradict what I have said?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You don’t know how much olive oil costs in the supermarkets, do you Steve?
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
On a point of fact that holds precisely true for me and I believe for most of the population, I'll have spent 2.7% of my time abroad this year (My holiday was for 10 nights, so bang average) but considerably more than 2.7% of my spending abroad this year...
I don't know but would expect the average Briton spends less than 2.7% of their spending abroad as even while abroad they're still paying their rent/mortgage, rates, domestic bills etc
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
Generally I would expect that hotels >> rent on a per diem basis, as is eating when you're eating out when on holiday rather than cooking from cheaper ingredients. You may also be doing further travelling within the country you're visiting (car hire >> car ownership) and so on, and so forth.
Absolutely I completely agree, so you spend more disposable income per day abroad than you do at home. But you spend your non-disposable income each day whether home or abroad at home.
Disposable income isn't all your income. Rents, rates, utilities etc are still payable whether home or abroad.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You don’t know how much olive oil costs in the supermarkets, do you Steve?
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
The rich pensioners in the North who voted for Brexit certainly can afford Olive Oil. And BMWs.
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
I think the prevalence of various tech goods in the inflationary measures keeps them lower than they otherwise would. Now you can argue that is because the average basket has moved that way, but it is errrr......... convienient. If we get sudden currency shocks the deflation in those tech goods may not last.
One example is that they used to have, say, an 64MB memory stick in the inflation basket. Those will have gone down drastically in price. So, great, you might think, we can now buy storage more cheaply.
However, at the same time the sizes of photos and other files that you might want to store on a memory stick have increased in size, so the utility from an 64MB memory stick is much reduced. In practice you long since moved on to buying a 1GB memory stick, which is roughly the same price as the 64 MB memory stick and gives you roughly the same utility, but it acts as a contribution to deflation.
Yes inflation might be lower had the £ dropped. But considering the target for inflation is 2.0% and inflation is currently 1.9%, inflation is actually below target not above target.
I never said you're not affected, I said the key metrics are wage growth and inflation - if wage growth is faster than inflation you are gaining, if it is below inflation you are losing.
Would you rather have 1.0% inflation with frozen wages, or 1.9% inflation with a 3% wage rise?
But they are not the options are they? They are just made up figures. So lets say the drop in the £ contributed 0.5% inflation the options are in your 2 examples:
0.5% inflation instead of 1% and 1.4% inflation instead of 1.9% both of which are better than you are offering.
Now both are below the target figure so if you want to get nearer the target figure you would stimulate the economy which would increase the growth figure. Again making people better off.
You say you have an economy degree so what is wrong with what I have just said?
You're wrong because you're assuming ceteris paribus, the first mistake of real world economics. Ceteris paribus isn't real. You say they are just made up figures but they're not made up figures, I quoted a real figure. Your wage growth staying the same while inflation changes figure was made up.
Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.
Current UK inflation: 1.9% Current UK wage growth: 3.4% Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.
Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1% Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5% Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.
The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.
Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.
I'm sorry but they were made up figures. You gave two hypothetical examples for me to compare. Unless you have access to a parallel universe they could not be applying at the same time to the same economy. You can not compare two different economies or two different time periods to prove a point.
You may be an economist, but I am a mathematician and that is a definite no no.
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
The rich pensioners in the North who voted for Brexit certainly can afford Olive Oil. And BMWs.
Not many rich pensioners in Stoke, Mansfield and Hartlepool. You may know a few in Ponteland however.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy someit from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You don’t know how much olive oil costs in the supermarkets, do you Steve?
Only Extra Virgin.
You have no idea at all. You think olive oil is only for rich people. You need to get out more.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
I'm completely lost. It was you who introduced the argument about ratio of days not me! And doing so was nonsense.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
I thought Keynes had established in 1925, that when we rejoined the Gold Standard, and sterling was revalued by 10% against the dollar, we did not become 10% richer. Instead, we put exporters out of business and pushed up the rate of unemployment.
But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.
When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
The cognitive dissonance of the right-wing Brexiteer: the left-behind voted Leave because they want radical change, but the economy's doing fine.
Next step: the economy has massive structural issues caused by decades of right-wing government. Only the Tories can fix this.
Firstly, I never said anyone wanted radical change and secondly previously wages were growing below inflation, that was bad. Now wages are growing faster than inflation, that is good.
We haven't had decades of right-wing government, the Tories are still fixing the mess of Gordon Brown and the disaster of 13 years of left-wing government.
What elements of the 1997-2010 Labour administration were in any way 'left-wing'?
There was that whole gay marriage thing. Plus they did spend an awful lot of taxpayer's money....
Has anyone read Travellers in the Third Reich by Julia Boyd? I’m reading it currently. It’s compelling and a bit closer to home than you’d want it to be.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we arar. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
So is that sorted then? The next PB meet up is in a Welsh nudist colony in the rain, with a ban on olive oil?
As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we are coming to, to achieve Brexit. HYFUD already wants us to go to state holiday camps in Pembrokeshire and to take away the votes of the provinces and install martial law there (I exaggerate). We are now going to ban foreign imports are we? The East Germans had the nice Trebant car. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
that should have read 'you all'. I don't want to start rumours about us ydoethur.
You're wrong because you're assuming ceteris paribus, the first mistake of real world economics. Ceteris paribus isn't real. You say they are just made up figures but they're not made up figures, I quoted a real figure. Your wage growth staying the same while inflation changes figure was made up.
Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.
Current UK inflation: 1.9% Current UK wage growth: 3.4% Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.
Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1% Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5% Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.
The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.
Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.
I'm sorry but they were made up figures. You gave two hypothetical examples for me to compare. Unless you have access to a parallel universe they could not be applying at the same time to the same economy. You can not compare two different economies or two different time periods to prove a point.
You may be an economist, but I am a mathematician and that is a definite no no.
To make examples we work with hypotheticals. You may be a mathematician but the idea of varying inflation while holding wages the same is garbage - every economist knows that when inflation changes wages change too ultimately, which can be a nasty circle and there are many warnings about that in history. Think about it, people look at inflation when negotiating wage changes.
Minimum Wage earners not earning bonuses have seen their wage grow far faster than anyone else on average and far faster than inflation. Real wages for those on the National Minimum Wage have gone up 3% this year. That's real wages not nominal and that is real figures not made up.
I am surprised, actually, at how poor Johnson’s polling is and how weak his “bounce”. And look at how his NHS funding announcement collapses.
It also feels like the media, having built him up, and keen to take him down. Also, having Cummings suggest he a potential coup d’etat seems to have been a bridge too far for some, and incensed others.
Still, it’s silly season. Most of the public are on a beach somewhere. September is when shit gets real.
I am not surprised by the poor polling Boris is experiencing. I am aware of whole families who used to vote Tory who will not vote for that idiot! Brexiteer Tories seem to think voters who usually support Labour and were Leavers will support him but I think this fundamentally misjudges why these people voted for Leave and will never vote Tory. It just goes to show how out of touch the nutters in office are that they even think Labour voters in historically Labour seats will support a party led by a man who thinks the rich should have more money!
I don't think Johnson's polling is at all poor. He's pushed up the Conservatives' share by about 10% or so, and I expect it will rise a bit further.
I would expect his rating to be hitting 80% + among Conservatives and Leavers shortly.
I think he's lecherous and unprincipled, but on this forum, people completely overstate the hatred that the public have for him, because they hate him.
Not really. He is utterly reviled by former Tory voters and I don't see any Labour Leaver's voting for Johnson or theTories in the 'forthcoming' election. This is probably as good as it gets for Boris and the Tories...
I don't think he is utterly reviled.
This forum is full of people who won't forgive him for betraying David Cameron in 2016. But, that's quite a niche section of the electorate.
How is wage growth averaged? For example, do we know if executive pay is increasing dramatically and pleb level is flat?
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
ONS has wage growth at 3.6% excluding bonuses, 3.4% including bonuses so if anything bonuses [which executives benefit from] is deflating wage growth.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
So your magical wage growth, showing the strength of the British economy, is a product of the government minimum wage.
F*cking hell.
That'll be one of those left-wing policies improving people's lives - bloody socialists!
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
What's that got to do with the price of fish olive oil?
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
This isn't rocket science. Let me know when you can get your head around it.
And if inflation picks up but wage growth declines, then what?
My company has laid off staff and frozen wages this year, due to Brexit causing businesses to pause investment spending.
Oh for goodness sake - You can't measure the cost of a holiday by the ratio of days abroad to home. Those day abroad cost far far more than the equivalent days at home. People really save up for their holidays, particularly those who can least afford it
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
"the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI"
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% ...
You do realise we haven't left the EU yet? Who knows????
What's that got to do with the price of fish olive oil?
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
This isn't rocket science. Let me know when you can get your head around it.
And if inflation picks up but wage growth declines, then what?
My company has laid off staff and frozen wages this year, due to Brexit causing businesses to pause investment spending.
If that happen then its bad. That's why I said we need to look at those metrics not sterling.
ForEx tells us nothing here. Frozen wages and high inflation would tell us lots - but the macroeconomic figures show the opposite. Its a shame if your company has done that but nationally employment is at a record high and wages are increasing far faster than inflation.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy someit from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
And yet again we see Leavers wishing inferior quality produce on the British in order to indulge their mad obsession.
Bless. No doubt Leave voters in Stoke, Hartlepool and Mansfield will be devastated if Brexit leads to inferior quality olive oil.
Are Remain voters in inner London subhuman? Should we only worry if Greggs is affected?
Not sure what point you are making here. You may find it difficult to understand that many Leave voters in the North can't afford imported olive oil but I can assure you that many can't. You sneering at Greggs suggests you've little understanding of life in less well off areas.
You don’t know how much olive oil costs in the supermarkets, do you Steve?
Only Extra Virgin.
You have no idea at all. You think olive oil is only for rich people. You need to get out more.
Oh chill out man. Please forgive my ignorance on these matters. I'm from Hull.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
What on earth is this drivel about earning our income in sterling and spending our expenditure in sterling?
Is the lunatic fringe now assuming we're going to stop trading with the rest of the world altogether on 31 October?
On a day to day basis what trade with the rest of the world do consumers do to spend their wages?
Let us say I want to buy some olive oil imported from Italy. I don't go to Italy to buy it . . . I go to Morrisons or ASDA to buy it. Now if I went to Italy to buy it, it would be priced in Euros, however since I am buying it from ASDA or Morrisons I pay for it in Sterling.
This stuff just gets stupider and stupider.
Do you not understand that ASDA has to pay for it in Euros, and that they have to make a profit by selling it on to you?
Asda will stop buying it from Italy if British shoppers stop buying it from Asda because it's too expensive.
The top three olive oil producing countries are in the EU. The next four largest producers produce less than a third of those EU countries' production.
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
The UK will get by without olive oil for a little while. Well, the bit of the UK that is outside the M25 at any rate.
Well I can go without olive oil forever, but honestly is that what we arar. We will go down that route shall we. Or instead why don't we trade with other countries?
The East Germans also practiced nudism while taking domestic holdiays...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
That is the final straw. The fact that I am going to a holiday camp with you was bad enough, but in Wales, in the nude.
So is that sorted then? The next PB meet up is in a Welsh nudist colony in the rain, with a ban on olive oil?
As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...
Pineapple shortages may be the one upside of No Deal Brexit.
Well, well, I see the journalists are getting there, eventually:
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told an audience in Edinburgh that if Johnson lost a confidence vote then Corbyn would seek to form a caretaker government instead, with the support of other opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs. ... However, rebel Conservative MPs would be extremely wary about a plan that installed Corbyn as even a temporary prime minister and many prefer the option of legislation to block no deal rather than a vote to collapse the government.
Comments
If you took part n a privatisation or demutualisation of a building society you are likely to receive dividends in Euros (eg BA, A&L, Abbey National, etc). if you work for a company that has an overseas holding company and you are in a share scheme will will receive shares traded on an overseas exchange. This applies to a lot of people (although admittedly in the case you have gained!)
Any product you bought in Asda that was purchased abroad or just had some ingredient from abroad or even if all UK ingredients but was delivered in a truck run on petrol will now cost more. Just looking at the CPI and saying it is say only 2.5% and therefore you are not affected is daft . if the £ hadn't dropped it may have only been 2% so it has cost you more.
Merely commenting on the polling figures as seen.
As for foreign holidays being a luxury and an exception...what planet are you on? There were more than 15 million UK visitors to Spain alone last year - that’s nearly a quarter of the population visiting just one country. According to this he average Briton spent 9.8 nights abroad last year, This isn’t the 50s - https://finder.com/uk/outbound-tourism-statistics
Those other major producers include Turkey who we would no longer be in a customs union with, and Syria.
So Brexit === funding terrorism!
I some how don't feel that Philip is suggesting that.
As for the average Briton spending 9.8 nights abroad last year, that means the average Briton spend 356.2 nights in the UK last year. The average Briton spent 2.7% of their time abroad and 97.3% of their time not abroad. Their time abroad was an exception.
And lard.
Costs are small enough to be absorbed by the internal importers
Costs are not being passed on by the external manufacturers
Adequate substitutes are available.
Population shrinkage cutting demand.
Pressures are building up but are being contained temporarily.
The good effects of world growth outweigh the bad effects of devaluation
You are correct in your implication that practical evidence is better than theoretical prediction, and it must be noted that both predictions by the antidevaluationists of an inflation pulse and predictions by the prodevaluationists of import/export rebalancing have not yet actually happened: stuff has not exploded in price nor have imports/exports got lots better balanced. We'll just have to wait and see...
...but maybe I shouldn't be giving a creep like Johnson ideas.
What still puzzles some people is that so many old-fashioned Tories should have fallen for such a seedy, treacherous chancer. In fact, I think Johnson has succeeded because of his amorality, not despite it. The transgressive sayer of the unsayable breaks through the carapace of conventional politics with a mixture of humour and vituperation, slang and high-flown rhodomontade. Clowning is part of the act for the leader who wants to reach beyond good and evil in the fashion Nietzsche recommended. A cartoon Superman?
"Only a madman would leave the WTO"
"What's so wrong with Mauritania?"
We are a magpie culture when it comes to foodstuffs, and such things are staples now even in Brexitstan. Fortunately, I am wealthy enough to buy the decent stuff, but it is not a particularly price sensitive market. A bottle of good oil lasts me a couple of months for the price of a few pints of beer.
I never said you're not affected, I said the key metrics are wage growth and inflation - if wage growth is faster than inflation you are gaining, if it is below inflation you are losing.
Would you rather have 1.0% inflation with frozen wages, or 1.9% inflation with a 3% wage rise?
At LAX
Not counting imports that you are buying in sterling [since they're covered by inflation as discussed] what are you spending abroad?
And I repeat (and as you have stated) the exchange cost is taken into account by the CPI which will be higher because of the drop in the £ so it does cost you more
Of course you've got to spank it first. But when it's shaved and spanked, what oil do you sm[That's enough - Ed]
And on that slightly disturbing image, I wish the company good night.
That's my f***ing point all along! Any exchange cost changes are taken into account by CPI. CPI inflation shows how much expenditure costs are changing including taking into account currency changes. Currently inflation is 1.9% - currency changes are within that 1.9% not on top of it. Thank you for confirming everything I've been writing.
Yes people save up for their holidays, that was my point too.
Next step: the economy has massive structural issues caused by decades of right-wing government. Only the Tories can fix this.
We haven't had decades of right-wing government, the Tories are still fixing the mess of Gordon Brown and the disaster of 13 years of left-wing government.
We've been talking about exchange costs that have already occured. Same metrics apply for exchange costs in the future. If inflation goes up due to exchange costs, then if inflation goes up by more than wages we are worse off macroeconomically. If wages are going up by more than inflation we are getting better off macroeconomically.
We've had years of low inflation but even lower wage stagnation, meaning real wages have been falling. If inflation picks up a bit but wage growth picks up further we are better off not worse off.
This isn't rocket science. Let me know when you can get your head around it.
0.5% inflation instead of 1% and 1.4% inflation instead of 1.9% both of which are better than you are offering.
Now both are below the target figure so if you want to get nearer the target figure you would stimulate the economy which would increase the growth figure. Again making people better off.
You say you have an economics degree so what is wrong with what I have just said?
If we get sudden currency shocks the deflation in those tech goods may not last.
Do you know how much of our food, and consumer goods of all sorts, that we import ?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49263525
And of course because I’m so woke I only buy it in glass bottles rather than plastic for ease of recycling.
Re currency. Yes it is in the 1.9% and if we didn't have the exchange loss in it, it could be 1.4% so we would all be better off. How is it you don't get this.
And if you want to hit the target of 2% you stimulate the economy, again making us better off.
In other words your exchange loss has made us all worse off one way or another.
The fact that none of us had to do the exchange ourselves is irrelevant.
Lets take more REAL WORLD figures.
Current UK inflation: 1.9%
Current UK wage growth: 3.4%
Real UK wage growth: 1.5% - We are 1.5% better off than last year in REAL terms.
Current Eurozone inflation: 1.1%
Current Eurozone Wage growth: 2.5%
Real Eurozone wage growth: 1.4% - The Eurozone is 1.4% better off than last year in REAL terms.
The UK is doing as well or marginally better as the Eurozone in real terms, despite the fall in the pound. Really there's nothing between us and the Eurozone in real terms, its a rounding difference.
Lets look at a few years ago. Between 2010 and 2014 UK real wages fell every single year because inflation was rising faster than wages, despite low inflation in those years too. Just because inflation is low doesn't mean wage growth can't be lower.
Given its historical and European context I think using the word subhuman is rather poor form. Your question is not deserving of a response.
Wage growth of 3.4% just doesn’t match up with anything I’ve experienced across many different industries in the North East of England...
Disposable income isn't all your income. Rents, rates, utilities etc are still payable whether home or abroad.
I'm from the North West of England and I don't know how much it varies with the North Eat but we have a much higher proportion of jobs on the Minimum Wage up North than they do in the South. The National Minimum Wage has gone up by 4.9% this year.
However, at the same time the sizes of photos and other files that you might want to store on a memory stick have increased in size, so the utility from an 64MB memory stick is much reduced. In practice you long since moved on to buying a 1GB memory stick, which is roughly the same price as the 64 MB memory stick and gives you roughly the same utility, but it acts as a contribution to deflation.
It's the same with all tech items.
You may be an economist, but I am a mathematician and that is a definite no no.
F*cking hell.
But, foreign holidays and olive oil became a bit cheaper, no doubt.
When we ran an Empire, there was definitely a political reason to fix the price of sterling at a particular value and to defend it, as a matter of imperial prestige. Now it means the square root of nothing.
As long as there is still pineapple on the pizza, count me in...
Minimum Wage earners not earning bonuses have seen their wage grow far faster than anyone else on average and far faster than inflation. Real wages for those on the National Minimum Wage have gone up 3% this year. That's real wages not nominal and that is real figures not made up.
This forum is full of people who won't forgive him for betraying David Cameron in 2016. But, that's quite a niche section of the electorate.
My company has laid off staff and frozen wages this year, due to Brexit causing businesses to pause investment spending.
Warren is now BF fav for Dems.
3.9
ForEx tells us nothing here. Frozen wages and high inflation would tell us lots - but the macroeconomic figures show the opposite. Its a shame if your company has done that but nationally employment is at a record high and wages are increasing far faster than inflation.
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told an audience in Edinburgh that if Johnson lost a confidence vote then Corbyn would seek to form a caretaker government instead, with the support of other opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs.
...
However, rebel Conservative MPs would be extremely wary about a plan that installed Corbyn as even a temporary prime minister and many prefer the option of legislation to block no deal rather than a vote to collapse the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/new-rebel-bid-to-halt-no-deal-brexit-amid-fury-at-pms-enforcer
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1159203227063246848