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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another set of opening PM Johnson leader ratings has him in de
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another set of opening PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory
Generally when PMs are replaced during a parliament the new person gets a boost in their leader ratings which I have long regarded as a better indicator of the political weather than voting intention polls.
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BBC1 10.35pm
Can You Beat the Bookies?
Armed with several thousand pounds and a dangerously small amount of knowledge, comedian Lloyd Griffith embarks on a challenge to double his money at the bookies while laying bare the truth about the gambling industry. En route he meets professional gamblers, academics who expose the tricks of the trade and people dealing with the consequences of their addiction.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1159027396386938881
Markit PMIs, or Purchasing Manager Indices, are some of the best forward looking indicators. They contact tens of thousands of firms every month with a survey and ask about stocks, backlogs, orders, exports, employment, etc. There is no reward for filling this in other than getting some nice reports on the economy (although it is a fairly trivial process), but in this way Markit gets an excellent idea of how manufacturing industries are trending around the world. (Markit has recently started doing services, retail, and construction as well, but the coverage these surveys get is still really low, so they are of varying usefulness.)
A PMI number of 50 indicates that half of firms are seeing improving conditions, and half are seeing deteriorating. They have been excellent barometers of growth, albeit sometimes overly sensitive.
Right now, the PMIs are below 50 and indicate recessions are incoming in the following countries:
Ireland
UK
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Russia
Poland
Spain
Italy
Germany
And the following countries have PMIs of almost exactly 50 (which is not a good sign)...
US
China
France
Brazil
Canada
Still growing are...
India
The Netherlands
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
In the 21st century, political oratory = a complete pack of lies?
Pulpstar said:
Does the German chart mean the ECB will probably hold rates near zero for the forseeable future ?
I said:
Deposit rates with the ECB have been negative for some time. Lending rates are currently at record lows of 1.95% and heading lower. Despite the fact that you are having to pay Germany to look after your money their Target balances within the EZ are moving inexorably to 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
The only thing that can save the EZ from yet another recession is a major increase in public spending combined with tax cuts in Germany to boost demand. And I don't see that happening whilst Merkel is there.
Personality is one thing but voters want action and results.
Hence why Mrs May plunged to the ground.
There is less demand because markets like guaranteed safe havens more than uncertainty. Even if things are going well. Which is why it is a meaningless metric.
Just as credit rating is a meaningless metric too. It is a subjective measurement.
What is real rather than subjective is actual economic indicators. Inflation, wages, employment for people.
A better indication than credit rating is looking at gilt yields. UK 10 year gilt yield is currently a record low below 0.5% which shows remarkable confidence that the gilts are still a safe haven not a concern. It isn't as extreme as the negative yield of German gilts but it is still safe.
Quite why the Tories have been stupid enough to set themselves up for this multi-pronged trap, actively seeking to make it as damaging for themselves as possible, will no doubt be an interesting study for future historians.
The other point of note is that many incoming PMs come in with a fairly blank canvass having emerged from the shadows and initially gain the benefit of the doubt. May and Major were cases in point. Brown was defined and had favourable ratings, but those derived from having been a highly successful Chancellor and by being seen to have forced out the then deeply unpopular Blair, so his case was something of an exception. By contrast, in the present context where politicians are defined both by their stance on Brexit divide AND by the left/right divide it would be difficult to see any incoming PM gaining a favourable rating. So I think that a thread based on comparing Johnson's ratings with what would "generally" be expected amounts to a false comparison.
Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.
What is her favourite biscuit? Pryaniki?
The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
He is absolutely right.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/opinion/trump-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
The China-US trade dispute is deeply worrying.
Why is everything going wrong at once?
Attempt to win a general election as we get a timed-out no deal Brexit, and hang the consequences.
Though, to be fair, there are a number of possible interpretations of that stream of non-sequiturs.
However in the context of a negotiation revocation is unreasonable. Like it or not the EU is our opposition in this negotiation and they want us to remain. Saying "give us a good deal or we will do exactly what you want" is unreasonable so remain has to be off the table.
[whatever happened to quality satire?]
As for her non Brexit agenda - it was entirely non existent.
Wet Tories want a decade of dithering - get that in the sea.
Unfortunately those new voters tend to be volatile and flakey as hell.
Still, Corbyn.
The asteroid/military coup cannot come soon enough IMHO.
In your many emails on the previous thread, you found it difficult to comprehend that the value of Sterling should exercise people's minds when what is important to them is wages, employment et al. Apologies if somebody has already pointed it out, but the wages of many non-Leavers are paid in Sterling.
It's a total Catch22. Brexit will fail. It (more or less) always was going to fail. People made a decision on a set of assumptions that predicted success, but which were false assumptions. So you either continue on a path to failure because you are mandated to do so or you attempt to avoid failure and in doing so go against democracy. Holding a second vote doesn't solve the problem for other reasons.
How this gets resolved eventually makes Brexit interesting despite the miserable experience of it.
* Some people chose to live in one country and be paid from another. That's an extreme minority, their own extreme choice and their own responsibility.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/
Perhaps a good way to get a handle on whose support is likely to go where, as candidates flatlining in the polls drop out.
Time to end the stasis.
RLB is a best-priced 13/2 with Bet365 for next Labour leader.
If people want either of those they can get a majority to vote for it afterwards. They're not relevant.
God knows what the "true" cybernats think of support from an little Englander like you.
We can then vote at the next election to reverse or change our path if we aren't happy.
(Things you never believed you would write #327)
We could leave with or without a deal but Parliament ruled out with so we only have one choice left.
Anyway, I said I was curious as to what they think; not you.
Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...
Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
Oh wait, they’re not.
Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?
Didn’t think so.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
And it is Mr Johnson’s tactical posturing that leaves Brussels thankful that its no-deal Brexit preparations are up to scratch.
Eurocrats believe that their planning far outweighs the contingency work undertaken by the British Government under Theresa May.
One EU source said: “Brussels will stand fast on the backstop and the issue of no deal because our contingency planning is way further advanced than Britain’s.
“We are prepared to offer financial support for Ireland and other frontline countries – including France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
“There have been no signs of member states wanting to take a different approach or even considering divide and rule to prevent no deal.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1160249/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ireland-backstop-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update
I’ll put you in the “stupid” bucket.
The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.
Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Nabavi
Herdson
Big G
TSE
Any more?