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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

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  • Charles said:

    I think the majority of homicides will still occur just by different methods
    Even the banning of automatic weapons would make a huge difference, for reasons too obvious to need pointing out.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724
    Charles said:

    I suppose that wealthy farmers have the luxury of making long-term economic decisions without the pressure for near term cash/food and hence should be able to generate higher returns on average
    I’ve no doubt that the long term economic return on the land was increased. I am less sure that that return was reinvested for the benefit of the native population.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You can also kill with stupidity, and you are trying very hard, Charles!
    No need to be offensive Peter

    My point is simply “gun control” is a very simplistic answer. Life is more complicated than that. It’s part of the solution but not a panacea.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    tlg86 said:

    I don't want to tempt fate, but I don't think it's inevitable. I think there is something about the USA that is different - no, I can't explain it. Though, having said that, it happened in Norway a few years ago, and if it can happen there, then it can probably happen anywhere.
    Breivik's a good case to consider. He had links to far-right groups, on a correspondence and meetings basis, but there was no group involved in his terrorism, and he didn't do it in the name of a particular cause. There wasn't a movement in any meaningful sense, nor is there in the recent US cases. On the other hand there is an ideology, one that is racist and nationalist, but no organisation, no terrorist group, no politcal party, no leader, you aren't going to arrest any ring-leaders.

    Fighting the current type of ring-wing terrorism will prove harder than fighting al-Qaeda or ISIS, as it will be akin to fighting militant Islamism. It will be a battle of ideas, more than a convention counter-terrorism campaign.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    I think the mass killings are partly due to social media glorification but a lot to do with the disastrous state of mental health provision.

    Suicides would probably be reduced (it’s easier to kill yourself with a gun)

    Gang based crime would remain. As we’ve seen in London this year it’s easy to kill with a knife
    There have been 88 homicides in London so far this year. There were 29 deaths in the two attacks alone this weekend. It’s not as easy to kill large numbers with a knife as with guns.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited August 2019
    TOPPING said:

    You disagree with this government's policy and yet are supporting it. That is pretty strange. The government wants to leave with no deal and to leave the single market and customs union. By your vote in 2016 you showed that you disagree with this. You are, simply, in the wrong party. It is the same with Labour. If they were to win by your own reckoning you should support it because their policies, likewise, are ones that you disagree with. Your only criterion of supporting a policy it seems is because it was arrived at democratically. So if Labour were elected by your own logic you would have no option but to support them.
    As I said before I was always on the borderline between Leave and Remain and would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement of continued EU membership, after we Leave the EU to respect the Brexit vote rejoining would likely require joining the Euro so I oppose rejoining now too.

    Leaving the single market and customs union are a necessary requirement to respect the Leave campaign's promise to end free movement and do our own trade deals though I would not necessarily oppose rejoining the single market in a decade or so once immigration has been brought under control, though I would still oppose rejoining the full EU.


    I have always opposed Corbyn's policies and always will, if Corbyn won a general election I would respect the voters decision but continue to oppose his government and campaign for a Tory victory at the subsequent general election
  • Charles said:

    No need to be offensive Peter

    My point is simply “gun control” is a very simplistic answer. Life is more complicated than that. It’s part of the solution but not a panacea.
    OK, sorry if I offended. I got fed up with the level of debate, but that's no excuse.

    I'll say good night.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    I’ve no doubt that the long term economic return on the land was increased. I am less sure that that return was reinvested for the benefit of the native population.
    I’m sure you’re right about that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    As I said before I was always on the borderline between Leave and Remain and would have voted Leave had the Euro been a requirement, after we Leave the EU to respect the Brexit vote rejoining would likely require joining the Euro so I oppose rejoining now too.

    Leaving the single market and customs union are a necessary requirement to respect the Leave campaign's promise to end free movement and do our own trade deals though I would not necessarily oppose rejoining the single market in a decade or so once immigration has been brought under control, though I would still oppose rejoining the full EU.


    I have always opposed Corbyn's policies and always will
    You opposed leaving the single market and customs Union. We can't trust your principles.

    You voted remain. Ergo you are a diehard remainer. Ergo you are in the wrong party.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There have been 88 homicides in London so far this year. There were 29 deaths in the two attacks alone this weekend. It’s not as easy to kill large numbers with a knife as with guns.
    Absolutely. But I suspect that spree killings are a small proportion of the overall number of homicides (don’t know if there are stats)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    edited August 2019

    There have been 88 homicides in London so far this year. There were 29 deaths in the two attacks alone this weekend. It’s not as easy to kill large numbers with a knife as with guns.
    Whilst I think the US gun laws are bonkers, there are other ways to murder a lot of people in one go. A motor vehicle being the obvious method - though you are more limited in targets. Would these people switch methods if automatic weapons were not available? I don't know - perhaps there's soemthing about guns that attracts these people.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    OK, sorry if I offended. I got fed up with the level of debate, but that's no excuse.

    I'll say good night.
    Good night
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited August 2019

    In the US?! You are kidding.
    It's worth pointing out that a majority of US gun deaths each year are suicides. Tightening gun laws would probably reduce the suicide rate somewhat if the method of choice became higher to obtain, or people might simply switch to overdosing on prescription drugs. Either way, it's still worth doing. At a bare minimum you'd see a huge drop off in people being accidentally shot by their own children.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Charles said:

    Absolutely. But I suspect that spree killings are a small proportion of the overall number of homicides (don’t know if there are stats)
    Look at @Scott_P 's post. Only a small proportion of the US's killing sprees make the news here (I don't know the definition). It's clearly a significant part of the equation, though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    The USA has many problems with guns but the discussion today should be primarily about far right terrorism. Attack after attack is politically motivated. But there seems no will to take that on.

    It’s a global movement. Sooner or later there will be an attack like that here too.

    Far right terrorism in this country seems mostly to comprise people who are extremely incompetent, but one can't count on that remaining the case.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Australia is in the box seat to win the first Ashes Test after a brilliant day's play in Birmingham.

    Steve Smith scored his second century of the match to ensure England needs to chase down a massive total in the fourth innings or bat out the final day to avoid defeat."

    https://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/live-australia-vs-england-day-four-of-the-first-ashes-test-at-edgbaston/live-coverage/fcb406bf5de1e1cd4328ad17df9397b7
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Look at @Scott_P 's post. Only a small proportion of the US's killing sprees make the news here (I don't know the definition). It's clearly a significant part of the equation, though.
    What’s the definition in @Scott_P post though?

    Let’s say it’s an average of 4 killings (assuming 2 is the minimum to qualify as s mass killing) then you are talking about 1000 homicides a year

    Statista said there were 17,284 murder/non-negligent manslaughter deaths in 2017. 1,000 is significant but still less than 5%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited August 2019
    TOPPING said:

    You opposed leaving the single market and customs Union. We can't trust your principles.

    You voted remain. Ergo you are a diehard remainer. Ergo you are in the wrong party.
    Nope, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal now if necessary to ensure Brexit on 31st October. By definition that does not make me a diehard Remainer, diehard Remainers by definition refuse to respect the Brexit vote and want to stop us leaving the EU on 31st October.

    As I also made clear I now back leaving the customs union to enable us to do our own trade deals and the single market in the short term too to enable us to end free movement, I would only reconsider joining the EEA in a decade at the earliest as I also made clear I would never now support us rejoining the full EU
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,651
    Sean_F said:

    Far right terrorism in this country seems mostly to comprise people who are extremely incompetent, but one can't count on that remaining the case.
    Thankfully they can't just pop into town, buy an assault rifle and box of ammo and head to the mosque.

    Night all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Charles said:

    I’m not sure it would. The evidence from London is that if criminals want guns they can get guns. Certainly stricter laws (why are semi automatics a constitutional right?) would reduce the incidence of accidental deaths and the kind of mass killings that are all to frequent. But are they the bulk of gun based homicides?
    Strange as it may seem, the USA is not a particularly violent society overall (obviously, some parts of it are very violent). It is way more peaceful then most of Latin America, or the Caribbean.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,676
    Very few mass killings in Switzerland, but guns are very prevalent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Sean_F said:

    Far right terrorism in this country seems mostly to comprise people who are extremely incompetent, but one can't count on that remaining the case.
    That bloke who drove into the people outside of the Finsbury Park Mosque is a good example of where gun restrictions do work. As far as I know that guy didn't have a weapon with him, and his plan was to drive into Muslims at another location but he couldn't get near them.

    Of course, if you're not fussy about your victims, a vehicle is a very good weapon.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    Charles said:

    I suppose that wealthy farmers have the luxury of making long-term economic decisions without the pressure for near term cash/food and hence should be able to generate higher returns on average
    The introduction of cash crops such as coffee and tobacco was forced by an imposition by the Imperialists of taxes such as "hut taxes". The purpose of these imposed taxes was to coerce the africans to either grow cash crops or into wage labour in European owned businesses. Failure to pay the taxes either resulted in compulsory government labour or expropriation of lands.

    To depict this as a benefit of colonialism is rather breathtaking in its lack of understanding, and not something that "Global Britain" should be doing.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    Sean_F said:

    Far right terrorism in this country seems mostly to comprise people who are extremely incompetent, but one can't count on that remaining the case.
    Most modern-day terrorism in the West is extremely amateurish. It's not like the nationalist, leftist, and fascist terrorist groups of the 70s and 80s that could go and get training and materiel from foreign governments.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Charles said:

    I think that back in the 70s - like many on the left like Harriet Harman - he came pretty close to endorsing some of the views espoused by PIE
    To be fair, he also says he was totally wrong to advocate abolishing the age of consent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Look at @Scott_P 's post. Only a small proportion of the US's killing sprees make the news here (I don't know the definition). It's clearly a significant part of the equation, though.
    1,733 murders in the US in 2017 were situations where there were multiple victims. So around 10% of the total

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/251888/murder-victims-in-the-us-by-victim-offender-situation/
  • justin124 said:

    Yes - 79.4% at Brecon & Radnor in July 1985. Darlington in March 1983 saw a turnout of 83%.
    You and I have different interpretations of the word recent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    Thankfully they can't just pop into town, buy an assault rifle and box of ammo and head to the mosque.

    Night all.
    OTOH, it's not hard to get bomb-making materials. Fortunately, the majority of them are too stupid to build a bomb, and/or brag about their plans on social media.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672

    Very few mass killings in Switzerland, but guns are very prevalent.

    Ammunition, however, is not. You get a gun without it, and are issued ammo in a national crisis. In the meantime, all you have is a pointy club. It is, of course, posible to get ammo from abroad (e.g. the US) if you're really keen, but you can't just rush out and do it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    Foxy said:

    The introduction of cash crops such as coffee and tobacco was forced by an imposition by the Imperialists of taxes such as "hut taxes". The purpose of these imposed taxes was to coerce the africans to either grow cash crops or into wage labour in European owned businesses. Failure to pay the taxes either resulted in compulsory government labour or expropriation of lands.

    To depict this as a benefit of colonialism is rather breathtaking in its lack of understanding, and not something that "Global Britain" should be doing.
    At least we didn’t simply demand the produce and chop their hand off if they didn’t meet their quota, as the Belgians did.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    Sean_F said:

    Strange as it may seem, the USA is not a particularly violent society overall (obviously, some parts of it are very violent). It is way more peaceful then most of Latin America, or the Caribbean.

    Wouldn’t fairer comparisons for the US be other developed ‘western’ democracies?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    Sean_F said:

    To be fair, he also says he was totally wrong to advocate abolishing the age of consent.
    It is also worth noting that in the Seventies through to the nineties the age of consent for homosevual sex was 21 years. Aguing for reducing or eliminating the age of consent needs to be put in the context of sexual activity that is perfectly legal now after 16th birthday.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026
    tlg86 said:

    Look at @Scott_P 's post. Only a small proportion of the US's killing sprees make the news here (I don't know the definition). It's clearly a significant part of the equation, though.
    I think they count anything from three or more than three as a mass killing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203

    In all Test history there have been 20 scores of 398+ in the 4th innings, but only one of those was in less than 100 6-ball overs, which was in 2002 at Christchurch when Nathan Astle scored a remarkable 222 at 8 runs an over as New Zealand scored 451 in 93 overs to lose by 98 runs.

    It would take a career-best performance from at least one of Roy, Buttler or Stokes - I don't think any of the other players are even theoretically capable.
    Barstow is but he is in terrible form
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026
    viewcode said:

    Pause.

    OK, if you give me the instructions on how to do "hee haw", I'll see what I can do. Although my legs aren't as good as they were. Does it involve lifting?

    You sit on your arse and sup at the trough
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal now if necessary to ensure Brexit on 31st October. By definition that does not make me a diehard Remainer, diehard Remainers by definition refuse to respect the Brexit vote and want to stop us leaving the EU on 31st October.

    As I also made clear I now back leaving the customs union to enable us to do our own trade deals and the single market in the short term too to enable us to end free movement, I would only reconsider joining the EEA in a decade at the earliest as I also made clear I would never now support us rejoining the full EU
    ie you can't be trusted to maintain a set of political beliefs. You are a diehard remainer.

    You are also a political tart. Just like Chuka or Anna. You change your views depending on the prevailing wind.

    It's not pathetic, as some people might think. Just that you have no underlying principles that can be relied on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672
    dixiedean said:

    A cheeky request. My partner is researching DEFRA. Unfortunately, she did the work on Gove. Now he isn't there. Anyone know Theresa Villiers' record on LGBT rights? They seem to be pretty liberal, am I right?

    Yes. This may be helpful:

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11500/theresa_villiers/chipping_barnet/votes

    The current Defra team is incidentally probably the most strongly pro-animal welfare that Defra has ever had (and Gove was good too, as is the shadow SoS Sue Hayman). Animal issues and LGBT rights are both outside the usual left-right spectrum.

    Which has to be a good thing. It's so irritating when people think that if you support X you must therefore support unrelated issue Y, because they're both left-wing or right-wing. It reduces all human thought to one dimension.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    IanB2 said:

    That took place under the "Congo Free State" when the Congo was a personal possession of King Leoplold. The Belgian government didn't take over until later, indeed it took over in large part because of Leopold's brutalities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    TOPPING said:

    ie you can't be trusted to maintain a set of political beliefs. You are a diehard remainer.

    You are also a political tart. Just like Chuka or Anna. You change your views depending on the prevailing wind.

    It's not pathetic, as some people might think. Just that you have no underlying principles that can be relied on.
    No. I have always opposed joining the Euro and given rejoining the EU likely requires that I oppose that too.

    I also respect democracy, if you have a referendum result you implement it, if you have a general election result you implement it, otherwise the whole principle of a democratic nation dies and the peaceful transition of power dies with it
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079

    Naturally. When with my German friends I refer to Koeln, not Cologne, but I wouldn't expect the German Government to put the English version up on their motorways to help me find the place.

    Why not ask the people of Abertawe/Swansea what they want to call it, and stick to that? Would save a lot of trouble.

    Switzerland is an interesting example - four (three and a bit) national languages, yet no multi lingual road signs at all. Each Canton decides which language its signs are in, and that’s it.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Charles said:

    1,733 murders in the US in 2017 were situations where there were multiple victims. So around 10% of the total

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/251888/murder-victims-in-the-us-by-victim-offender-situation/
    Adjusting for differences in population size, I make that around 10 times the annual total gun deaths in the UK.
  • IanB2 said:


    Switzerland is an interesting example - four (three and a bit) national languages, yet no multi lingual road signs at all. Each Canton decides which language its signs are in, and that’s it.
    Bern and Fribourg and Valais are bilingual, Graubünden is trilingual.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    edited August 2019

    Thankfully they can't just pop into town, buy an assault rifle and box of ammo and head to the mosque.

    Night all.
    @SandyRentool
    Just got back from doing the summer Sunday-only train from Exeter to Okehampton :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903

    Yes. This may be helpful:

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11500/theresa_villiers/chipping_barnet/votes

    The current Defra team is incidentally probably the most strongly pro-animal welfare that Defra has ever had (and Gove was good too, as is the shadow SoS Sue Hayman). Animal issues and LGBT rights are both outside the usual left-right spectrum.

    Which has to be a good thing. It's so irritating when people think that if you support X you must therefore support unrelated issue Y, because they're both left-wing or right-wing. It reduces all human thought to one dimension.
    Thanks for that, Nick. That confirms our hasty research. My partner had produced her due diligence report on DEFRA last month to present tomorrow. So outlined Gove's liberal viewpoint over dinner. I had to inform her, this was all very well, but he wasn't there any more. Cue some panic.
    Shows how some pore over Cabinet reshuffles, but it passes others by.
    And yes, I agree on the X and Y point. Although, too often politicians tend to use inductive reasoning and work from the chosen position on the left/right spectrum to form their opinions on issue X. I guess it is easy to be seduced into the Party line.
    It is all too common, so it is always refreshing to see otherwise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    No. I have always opposed joining the Euro and given rejoining the EU likely requires that I oppose that too.

    I also respect democracy, if you have a referendum result you implement it, if you have a general election result you implement it, otherwise the whole principle of a democratic nation dies and the peaceful transition of power dies with it

    Nah. No one's talking about the euro where did that come from so did I who cares.

    You can also respect democracy but you don't have to agree with the result. Or as I said you would support any party that won a general election.

    You don't agree with leaving the EU, the single marketand customs union. The Conservative Party wants to do all those things. It is therefore not the party for you. Unless you are an unprincipled charlatan.

    You voted remain, you want to remain. The Conservative Party is a leave party and hence you are in the wrong party.

    Hold firm to your beliefs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    Capering in a lady's chamber yet, but "nimbly"?

    "Like a flaccid elephant" would be more appropriate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    eek said:
    Indeed. As I have posted here several times. He's clearly a lurker :lol:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    @SandyRentool
    Just got back from doing the summer Sunday-only train from Exeter to Okehampton :)
    But did you then take the Dartmoor Railway line for the 10 minute climb up to Meldon Quarry?

    https://www.dartmoor-railway-sa.org/services
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited August 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Nah. No one's talking about the euro where did that come from so did I who cares.

    You can also respect democracy but you don't have to agree with the result. Or as I said you would support any party that won a general election.

    You don't agree with leaving the EU, the single marketand customs union. The Conservative Party wants to do all those things. It is therefore not the party for you. Unless you are an unprincipled charlatan.

    You voted remain, you want to remain. The Conservative Party is a leave party and hence you are in the wrong party.

    Hold firm to your beliefs.
    To rejoin the EU we would likely have to join the Euro, there would be no repeat of the opt out John Major negotiated.

    You may not agree with the result or the party that won the general election but you still have to implement the result otherwise there is no point in having a democratic system.

    I do now agree with Leaving the EU, for as I said rejoining would require the Euro and I do agree with leaving the customs union to do our own free trade deals and I do now agree with leaving the single market to end free movement until immigration is brought under control. I remain and always will be a Tory until my dying day
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    If it is to be a people v politicians election, I take it not a single Conservative MP will be re-selected? Nor any councillors? And replaced with randoms?
    They are after all politicians.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632
    Talking of gun crime and terrorism ..... the NCA have seized a Passat arriving at the Port of Dover from Calais with a huge haul of lethal firearms. An Irishman is appearing in court on Monday. See http://ow.ly/PUV850vmAF6.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Brexit Party MEP Claire Fox does not rule out a pact with the Tories at the next general election although she says the situation is 'complicated'

    https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/08/watch-could-a-tory-brexit-party-pact-happen-of-course-it-could-replies-claire-fox.html
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Lots of "what ifs" equals losing bet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    HYUFD said:

    Brexit Party MEP Claire Fox does not rule out a pact with the Tories at the next general election although she says the situation is 'complicated'

    https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/08/watch-could-a-tory-brexit-party-pact-happen-of-course-it-could-replies-claire-fox.html

    Sorry. Utterly irrelevant. Unless it has been cleared with the Supreme Leader for Life.
    If it hasn't, Ms Fox better watch her step. Free thinking is not encouraged.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of gun crime and terrorism ..... the NCA have seized a Passat arriving at the Port of Dover from Calais with a huge haul of lethal firearms. An Irishman is appearing in court on Monday. See http://ow.ly/PUV850vmAF6.

    Is Margate Magistrates Court now the court of choice for these kind of cases? They'll use Dreamland next.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    HYUFD said:

    Brexit Party MEP Claire Fox does not rule out a pact with the Tories at the next general election although she says the situation is 'complicated'

    https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/08/watch-could-a-tory-brexit-party-pact-happen-of-course-it-could-replies-claire-fox.html

    On which topic. Are you of the opinion that a pact with the Brexit Party would increase or decrease the Tory vote?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    To rejoin the EU we would likely have to join the Euro, there would be no repeat of the opt out John Major negotiated.

    You may not agree with the result or the party that won the general election but you still have to implement the result otherwise there is no point in having a democratic system.

    I do now agree with Leaving the EU, for as I said rejoining would require the Euro and I do agree with leaving the customs union to do our own free trade deals and I do now agree with leaving the single market to end free movement until immigration is brought under control. I remain and always will be a Tory until my dying day
    You have no idea what rejoining would mean. Wholly irrelevant to the discussion.

    You don't want to leave in the first place and "your" party does.

    "I do agree with this...I do agree with that..."

    You have, if I may say shamelessly, changed your political beliefs. Based on nothing other than the other faction gaining power. You are simply not to be trusted.

    Plus it doesn't matter whether you have changed your beliefs although it doesn't reflect well on you. In the only official poll on the matter you registered as a remainer. A diehard remainer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    dixiedean said:

    If it is to be a people v politicians election, I take it not a single Conservative MP will be re-selected? Nor any councillors? And replaced with randoms?
    They are after all politicians.

    Probably the Daily Mail will get to choose which MPs are politicians.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dixiedean said:

    Sorry. Utterly irrelevant. Unless it has been cleared with the Supreme Leader for Life.
    If it hasn't, Ms Fox better watch her step. Free thinking is not encouraged.
    If the fairisle cardiganed ones can do it, it can't be that hard, can it?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Barstow is but he is in terrible form
    Bairstow should make way for Foakes (who should have been playing at Edgbaston.) Rashid should come in for Moen Ali. Archer plays instead of Anderson, if fit but I suspect he isn't. There are several reasonable alternatives for his place if his fitness cannot be trusted.

    Keep the rest as they are. (I wouldn't have picked Denley for the first Test and I would have Root at four, but no point in changing for Lords.)

    Does anybody know if Woakes is fully fit? My guess is that the Selectors took a chance with him too but got away with it, just about.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dixiedean said:

    On which topic. Are you of the opinion that a pact with the Brexit Party would increase or decrease the Tory vote?
    Surely the object of the exercise is to remove the choice
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Foxy said:

    Good old PB. I read Neal Ascherson's book on that very topic on my recent holiday.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Brexit Party MEP Claire Fox does not rule out a pact with the Tories at the next general election although she says the situation is 'complicated'

    https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/08/watch-could-a-tory-brexit-party-pact-happen-of-course-it-could-replies-claire-fox.html

    So the Revolutionary Communists and the Tories will be allies ?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,626
    edited August 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Talking of gun crime and terrorism ..... the NCA have seized a Passat arriving at the Port of Dover from Calais with a huge haul of lethal firearms. An Irishman is appearing in court on Monday. See http://ow.ly/PUV850vmAF6.

    That's interesting. As the report indicates, the rate of gun crime in the UK is amongst the lowest in the world so the arrival of a consignment like that would have made a significant impact.

    You'd have to imagine much of the weaponry was bought to order. The scale makes you wonder whether the purchasers were quasi-political or terrorist groups rather than normal criminal gangs.

    Edit: This wouldn't be the Provos selling off surplus stocks, would it?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    So the Revolutionary Communists and the Tories will be allies ?
    My old Mum would have said "any port in a storm"
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    ... is the plot of Leon Uris's "A God in Ruins", set over the 2008 US election cycle. I'm constantly surprised no-one's tried it yet. Possibly it isn't worth the physical risk such a platform would invite.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    So I (my better half actually, but I've taken the blame) spilled lots of wine all down my evening shirt at a wedding reception yesterday.

    I've got another black tie event next weekend, what's a good place to get a decent replacement for under £100? Doesn't need to be made to measure.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    That's interesting. As the report indicates, the rate of gun crime in the UK is amongst the lowest in the world so the arrival of a consignment like that would have made a significant impact.

    You'd have to imagine much of the weaponry was bought to order. The scale makes you wonder whether the purchasers were quasi-political or terrorist groups rather than normal criminal gangs.

    Edit: This wouldn't be the Provos selling off surplus stocks, would it?
    and shipping them via the pretty route?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited August 2019

    So the Revolutionary Communists and the Tories will be allies ?
    For one election only to deliver Brexit and defeat the diehard Remainers maybe, Claire Fox and Boris Johnson and the Brexit Party and Tories on one side, Alistair Campbell and Michael Heseltine and the LDs and Greens and SNP and PC on the other and Corbyn Labour in the middle still trying to be all things to all people
  • and shipping them via the pretty route?
    Who knows where they originated, but the UK is an odd destination for that sort of weaponry. There are no major conflicts going on here, gun-crime is low and professional criminals tend not to use guns; one imagines the street price of the weapons would have been fairly low because they would be too hot. Unless of course they were being delivered to order.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    dixiedean said:

    On which topic. Are you of the opinion that a pact with the Brexit Party would increase or decrease the Tory vote?
    At the moment increase it if the Brexit Party stand down or do very little campaigning in Tory v Labour and Tory v LD marginals in return for the Tory Party standing down or doing very little campaigning in 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and South Wales and Midlands
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    MaxPB said:

    So I (my better half actually, but I've taken the blame) spilled lots of wine all down my evening shirt at a wedding reception yesterday.

    I've got another black tie event next weekend, what's a good place to get a decent replacement for under £100? Doesn't need to be made to measure.

    You will find as you get older that you will wear a normal cream cotton shirt instead. If you want something that formal go to Hackett or even Lewin will do you a good one.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Who knows where they originated, but the UK is an odd destination for that sort of weaponry. There are no major conflicts going on here, gun-crime is low and professional criminals tend not to use guns; one imagines the street price of the weapons would have been fairly low because they would be too hot. Unless of course they were being delivered to order.
    Balkans probably. It could be a dissident Irish group re-stocking. Who knows? But it is important to bear this case in mind next time someone says we can waive customs checks to avoid delays after a no deal Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment increase it if the Brexit Party stand down or do very little campaigning in Tory v Labour and Tory v LD marginals in return for the Tory Party standing down or doing very little campaigning in 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and South Wales and Midlands
    Doing very little campaigning seems to be de rigeur for the Brexit Party already.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903

    Balkans probably. It could be a dissident Irish group re-stocking. Who knows? But it is important to bear this case in mind next time someone says we can waive customs checks to avoid delays after a no deal Brexit.
    Yep. And just wait for that shiny new free trade deal with the USA. Who knows what buccaneering opportunities new gun laws will open up?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    For one election only to deliver Brexit and defeat the diehard Remainers maybe, Claire Fox and Boris Johnson and the Brexit Party and Tories on one side, Alistair Campbell and Michael Heseltine and the LDs and Greens and SNP and PC on the other and Corbyn Labour in the middle still trying to be all things to all people
    I am disappointed that you, as a diehard remainer, are speculating on ways you will be defeated.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Barstow is but he is in terrible form
    Yes. His Test form has been terrible for so long that I forgot about him. An average of 22.05 over the last 12 months.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    dixiedean said:
    On the topic of Priti and her coming reign of terror let me just say how nice it is to have a 'social liberal' like Boris in charge....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Thanks Ydoethur. That's very interesting and kind of hopeful.

    May I ask if you share my irritation with dual language names and road signs?

    The Italians don't find it necessary to tell English tourists that they are approaching Florence rather than Firenze. Nor do the Germans bother to translate Ausfahrt for us at the exit to motorways. So why do we need telling that Caerdydd is really Cardiff in disguise? And if the English want to call Abertawe something completely diferent, that's our business and we shouldn't require the locals to accommodate our parochialism by putting up helpful hints that it's what we call Swansea. As for Araf, if you need the English translation painted on the roads to tell you what it means, you shouldn't really be driving.

    You're in Wales, ffs. Cope with the local anguage or stay at home. No?
    Try driving in Belgium. The city of 'Mons' disappears from road signs as you pass through Dutch speaking areas and becomes 'Bergen'. Confused the heck out of me first time I encountered it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    A reminder we are coming to the end of Boris' 12th day as PM. Approximately one eighth of his time before a No Deal Brexit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    HYUFD said:
    Correction: He's ordered the spuds for 7.55 tomorrow. Apparently Johnson is partial to bangers and mash.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    But did you then take the Dartmoor Railway line for the 10 minute climb up to Meldon Quarry?

    https://www.dartmoor-railway-sa.org/services
    Alas, no, the timings were all wrong, unless I'd wanted to get back to Ilford really, really late!

    Might have to stay overnight in Exeter, get the bus to Okehampton and then Dartmoor shuttle. But I'm prioritising official National Rail services for the moment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    HYUFD said:
    Piers Morgan re tweets unsubstantiated rumours of left wing people vandalising cars and stuff.
    So that we will think 20 people just got shot dead, and more than 40 wounded is somehow OK?
    Does he and you think we are really that thick?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Chris said:

    Correction: He's ordered the spuds for 7.55 tomorrow. Apparently Johnson is partial to bangers and mash.
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1158113200979812352?s=20
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1158113200979812352?s=20
    And a turnover of some kind for dessert. Lovely stuff.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1158113200979812352?s=20
    12 days into government he's decided the advisors are the problem. Suggests he doesn't like their advice much.
    New advisors 87 days before the most revolutionary government policy in nearly 75 years, arguably longer. Hope the new ones will be just super at the advicey stuff.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,010
    Boris' strategy to win an election essentially relies on the stupidity, fractiousness, cowardice and arrogance of the Labour Party. But it's not the Corbynistas' - it's the rest of Labour.

    Corbynism has always been a Field of Dreams political movement - build it and they will come. Take over Labour, shut out the doubters, espouse socialism, and eventually the country will see the horrors and come round. It relies on its current figurehead almost because of its failures rather than in spite of them - he's vague and almost displays Trumpian vacuousness on policy - so unites various leftist strands who would other be at each others' throats. He annoys 'the right people' and allows those who aren't victims to play that role politically. He's a rallying point to people who have little in common other than wanting to control Labour and use it to push their particular brand of leftism. They're fine, because Corbyn losing isn't a disaster, as long as it keeps Labour shifting towards the far left.

    The stupid, arrogant, cowards are those on the soft and centre left who know in their heart of hearts he's an appalling individual but think they can vaguely cower and it will all be ok. In the case of the former, it's a refusal to admit they acted dreadfully by hitching their wagons to Corbyn, and devalued any morals they claimed to have. In the case of the latter, it's a failure to stand up for what they know to be right, other than to murmur disgruntlement in the hope it al goes away.

    Either way, they'll never sort it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    AndyJS said:
    there are a number of things the House of Commons can do, including bringing down the government and setting up a new one in its place

    Easier said than done.....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2019
    @MJW Corbyn had a whole manifesto of policy, it is generally his opponents on the right of the party who will talk vaguely about aspiration and say things that nobody could disagree with... which sounds good until you realise nobody can disagree with it because they are just saying they want good things not actual policy. Notice when CUK started it had very little to say on actual policy, lots of the stuff they put out with the exclusion of remain orientated stuff could have been put out by PR people with no interest or knowledge of politics.

    Despite this vagueness they still couldn't attract people, I think left wing voters are more attracted by policy than vague words about aspiration, one of the big problems the Labour right has is they have had very little to actually say beyond I don't like it.

    Arguably the one policy some of them have had is another referendum, although that has been pushed from the left as well so it isn't even theirs, the Labour right probably contains as many (if not more) against another referendum than the Labour left. Now it is pretty much party policy anyway to have a 2nd ref so it isn't much of a different policy position.

    The main others things that come to mind are keeping trident there was a bit of debate about with the right strongly in support and there have been various complaints on the right about the tuition fees policy but maybe for tactical reasons they haven't pushed on that one too strongly....

    Their main policy seems to be not being Corbyn (pro Trident is second), which would probably be more internally successful in other political parties.

  • dixiedean said:

    12 days into government he's decided the advisors are the problem. Suggests he doesn't like their advice much.
    New advisors 87 days before the most revolutionary government policy in nearly 75 years, arguably longer. Hope the new ones will be just super at the advicey stuff.
    Good riddance. May was getting crap advice. And that May's advisors didn't believe in Brexit isn't surprising and explains a lot.
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