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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

At first glance this market from Ladbrokes seems like an easy way to earn a 40% return as it seems we are headed for an early election with Boris Johnson’s actions indicating that’s where we will end up. An early election gives no realistic way for Corbyn to be removed or stand down as Labour leader.

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Nigelb

I’d be very surprised if Corbyn is ousted this year.

Nigelb

(FPT)

Peter_the_Punter said:

AndyJS said:

Australia must be favourites once the target goes over 200.

Favorites now. England have had it. Aussie bowlers all fit and one of them is one of the best spinners in the world.

Regulars readers will know what I think of the Test Selectors, so won't be surprised that I think that whoever decided to play an unfit bowler should resign. No chance of it happening though, if only because there's a whole bunch of them and none of them ever own up to making a decision.

You’ll be alarmed to hear that Boycott agrees with you.

malcolmg

2nd

ydoethur

In fairness @leslie48 the Tories should be equally ashamed of themselves for electing their own form of Corbyn as leader.

FrancisUrquhart

I hope England at least make some what of a game of it, as I don't want to go to the match tomorrow for only a couple of hours of play.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

I hope England at least make some what of a game of it, as I don't want to go to the match tomorrow for only a couple of hours of play.

Lyon could be a handful tomorrow.
Given their predicament, England might be best treating the last innings as an ODI and send Bairstow in with Roy to open....

Byronic

FrancisUrquhart said:

I hope England at least make some what of a game of it, as I don't want to go to the match tomorrow for only a couple of hours of play.

Rain is forecast until lunch.....

Benpointer

What kind of a lead will Australia want before declaring?

Nigelb

Benpointer said:

What kind of a lead will Australia want before declaring?

Whatever they have with an hour left today.

AndyJS

Benpointer said:

What kind of a lead will Australia want before declaring?

They'd like 400 of course but there probably won't be time for that, so 350 possibly.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

What kind of a lead will Australia want before declaring?

I would guess they'll declare just over an hour after tea.

Two goes with the new ball then.

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

What kind of a lead will Australia want before declaring?

I would guess they'll declare just over an hour after tea.

Two goes with the new ball then.

They will need 350. They shouldn't need 350, but I don't think you can risk declaring with less, because if England do manage to bat all tomorrow they will be close if it is only 300.

RandallFlagg

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

stodge

HYUFD said:

What is wrong with the system is the failure of Parliamentarians to respect the Leave vote by either voting for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal

No, it is not the fault of MPs. It is the fault of the Conservative Government from 2016 and the manner in which they chose unilaterally to interpret the result of the 23/6/16 vote. Instead of seeking to open the discussion and unite the country, they shut down debate, told us all we should trust Theresa (which, as it turned out, we didn't) and spent more time trying to keep their fractured little band together.

I didn't vote LEAVE to see us crash out without a Deal - I couldn't conceive of a Government so inept as to allow such a thing to happen. We've wasted three and a half years not sorting out all the other problems and issues facing the country or rather your Party has. It's time to draw stumps and cut our losses.

As for the WA, the genius of Theresa May and her team was in evolving a 585-page mass of legalese which could mean anything to anyone (and presumably they assumed it would be acceptable on that basis). Unfortunately, when people couldn't see what they wanted to see in the morass of verbiage they assumed the worst - it's either an incredibly soft Brexit or it's too hard. Thus, May has managed to antagonise everybody and seen her WA crash and burn.

I'm sure there was a satisfactory deal to be had but May spent too much time trying to come up with something she could sell to the Conservative Party she forgot she had to sell it to everyone else (including the 48% who voted REMAIN and have a say in all this).

Andy_Cooke

Following the discussion on the previous thread, one thing occurred to me that is probably completely barking:

- VoNC
- We are now in new territory.
- The House states "Until the House shall affirm confidence in a Prime Minister, the Speaker of the House/Father of the House [delete as appropriate] is empowered to request an extension to the Article 50 period in order to ensure an orderly departure from the European Union"

Byronic

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

AndyJS

In reality 275 would be enough 90% of the time, but a captain who declares and loses is never forgiven which is why they have to get about 100 to 150 runs more than are probably needed.

not_on_fire

@AlastairMeeks predicted at the start of the year that none of the then party leaders would be in the office by the end of the year. 2 down so far...

FrancisUrquhart

AndyJS said:

In reality 275 would be enough 90% of the time, but a captain who declares and loses is never forgiven which is why they have to get about 100 to 150 runs more than are probably needed.

Its like coaches that go for 4th downs in the nfl. All the stats say they should be going for a lot more of them, but if it doesnt work out once they get slated.

FrancisUrquhart

Another terrible decision by the umpire. It wasnt even close.

RandallFlagg

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

Swinson was part of the 'evil, pro-austerity Coalition', so is no a go as far Corbyn is concerned. Also if she became temporary PM, she might have an outside chance of winning enough seats in the forthcoming GE to actually form a government. I don't think anyone thinks the Green Party is going to win the next election, regardless of what happens between now and Halloween.
The reality is anyone who is going to be caretaker PM needs Corbyn's support. Swinson would never get it, but Lucas actually might.

NickPalmer

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

As I've said, I expect Corbyn to make the necessary compromises, in particular an early election once the postponement of No Deal exit has been agreed. I don't actually think a GNU is a runner - the time available is too short.

But if there was one, I can just about see it being led by Lucas, as the Greens are not really seen as a major threat. Clarke would I think be accepted for the same reason. Swinson would not be acceptable to centrist Labour MPs, because she represents a direct alternative, in the same way that if there was a Coca-Cola ingredient shortage, they might accept a temporary supply from an Indian firm, but they certainly wouldn't offer Pepsi. If a GNU were to work at all, it would need to be seen as not shifting the landscape of British politics as a desired or undesired side-effect.

Nigelb

Smart tactics by Mercedes.
Certain second place, and the off chance of stealing the win. Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

And if nothing else, gives him fastest lap.

ydoethur

Good grief.

Did someone just suspend the laws of physics, or did the umpire just commit another howler?

justin124

If Johnson tried to hang on in No 10 having lost a VNOC, it strikes me as unlikely that the Tories would maintain a united front. Not difficult to imagine people such as Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames - even John Major - accusing him of acting with impropriety.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

Big_G_NorthWales

NickPalmer said:

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

As I've said, I expect Corbyn to make the necessary compromises, in particular an early election once the postponement of No Deal exit has been agreed. I don't actually think a GNU is a runner - the time available is too short.

But if there was one, I can just about see it being led by Lucas, as the Greens are not really seen as a major threat. Clarke would I think be accepted for the same reason. Swinson would not be acceptable to centrist Labour MPs, because she represents a direct alternative, in the same way that if there was a Coca-Cola ingredient shortage, they might accept a temporary supply from an Indian firm, but they certainly wouldn't offer Pepsi. If a GNU were to work at all, it would need to be seen as not shifting the landscape of British politics as a desired or undesired side-effect.

With respect Nick how anyone thinks Caroline Lucas could become pm in a GONU amazes me.

To be fair there are several conservative and labour mps who could undertake the role including Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn

The other query I have is your comment that once a no deal brexit has been agreed.

How do you see the mechanics of this coming about

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

rcs1000

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

You've answered your own question.

Labour Remainers won't want to legitimise the LibDems.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

If Johnson tried to hang on in No 10 having lost a VNOC, it strikes me as unlikely that the Tories would maintain a united front. Not difficult to imagine people such as Kenneth Clarke and Nicholas Soames - even John Major - accusing him of acting with impropriety.

Have to more than just name call

Byronic

RandallFlagg said:

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

Swinson was part of the 'evil, pro-austerity Coalition', so is no a go as far Corbyn is concerned. Also if she became temporary PM, she might have an outside chance of winning enough seats in the forthcoming GE to actually form a government. I don't think anyone thinks the Green Party is going to win the next election, regardless of what happens between now and Halloween.
The reality is anyone who is going to be caretaker PM needs Corbyn's support. Swinson would never get it, but Lucas actually might.

Yes, that's a fair point (and I see NPXMP makes it, too). However I don't think we can rule anything out. MPs might go completely AWOL by October, and all party management will collapse, under the pressure of No Deal V No Brexit. And then, who knows? No one.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NickPalmer said:

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

As I've said, I expect Corbyn to make the necessary compromises, in particular an early election once the postponement of No Deal exit has been agreed. I don't actually think a GNU is a runner - the time available is too short.

But if there was one, I can just about see it being led by Lucas, as the Greens are not really seen as a major threat. Clarke would I think be accepted for the same reason. Swinson would not be acceptable to centrist Labour MPs, because she represents a direct alternative, in the same way that if there was a Coca-Cola ingredient shortage, they might accept a temporary supply from an Indian firm, but they certainly wouldn't offer Pepsi. If a GNU were to work at all, it would need to be seen as not shifting the landscape of British politics as a desired or undesired side-effect.

With respect Nick how anyone thinks Caroline Lucas could become pm in a GONU amazes me.

To be fair there are several conservative and labour mps who could undertake the role including Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn

The other query I have is your comment that once a no deal brexit has been agreed.

How do you see the mechanics of this coming about

The Greens are even more extreme than the exremists in Labour and the Tories, that's literally their pitch that Labour are not extreme enough, so any member of them is clearly unsuitable to be a leader of a government of unity. Lucas doesn't get a pass.

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

I’d be very surprised if Corbyn is ousted this year.

Depends how badly he loses an election....

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/hopenothate/status/1157920903772213253

FrancisUrquhart

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Or getting wet.

Odds evens on Aussie or draw according to Sky, no doubt taking into account the weather forecast

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Or getting wet.

Odds evens on Aussie or draw according to Sky, no doubt taking into account the weather forecast

I am in the skyline stand, so dont have to worry about that. Is a great view from up there (and covered)....and the bar is only a few steps away.

Nigelb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Or getting wet.

Odds evens on Aussie or draw according to Sky, no doubt taking into account the weather forecast

Sounds a fairly miserable prospect.
I recommend alcohol.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

You're lucky only to have a feeling. I have a certainty.

bigjohnowls

OMG Liz Truss

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157708361703546881

MarqueeMark

NickPalmer said:

Byronic said:

RandallFlagg said:

Following on from the last thread, in terms of a temporary caretaker PM, I actually think it wouldn't be impossible if Caroline Lucas was appointed.
Think about it. While Byronic and rcs1000 might be right about pro-EU Tories never supporting Corbyn in any circumstances, they might temporarily support a lefty who didn't have quite the same baggage as him, in order to get an extension from Brussels. And if Corbyn was to support a PM other than himself, it would have to be someone on the left who wasn't in the Labour Party, and who had no chance of winning the subsequent GE. She certainly has value anyway at 100/1.

Why not Swinson?! Her party are 3rd in the polls nationwide (sometimes 2nd). They just won Brecon. They are a big, established, nationwide party. She's not a rabid lefty like Lucas yet she would be acceptable to many Labour MPs (and to the Greens, Plaid, maybe the SNP).

If Labour can't come up with a decent GNU leader, or Corbyn is unprepared to do wild, unprecedented compromises, then Swinson is the obvious next choice.

As I've said, I expect Corbyn to make the necessary compromises, in particular an early election once the postponement of No Deal exit has been agreed. I don't actually think a GNU is a runner - the time available is too short.

But if there was one, I can just about see it being led by Lucas, as the Greens are not really seen as a major threat. Clarke would I think be accepted for the same reason. Swinson would not be acceptable to centrist Labour MPs, because she represents a direct alternative, in the same way that if there was a Coca-Cola ingredient shortage, they might accept a temporary supply from an Indian firm, but they certainly wouldn't offer Pepsi. If a GNU were to work at all, it would need to be seen as not shifting the landscape of British politics as a desired or undesired side-effect.

A GNU would have no agreed programme other than to deal with Brexit. How would it do that? By a second referendum. But that would require acommitment to implement the outcome. Swinson and Lucas have already said they wouldn't accept a second Leave vote.

That GNU is going to turn out to be a wild beast....

Nigelb

bigjohnowls said:

OMG Liz Truss

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157708361703546881

Truss has been excelling herself...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/04/liz-truss-trade-deal-food-safety-deregulation

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

It wasn’t the silver arrows who had shot their bolt.


That was a mugging.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

It wasn’t the silver arrows who had shot their bolt.


That was a mugging.

That ending was just a load of bull.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

It wasn’t the silver arrows who had shot their bolt.


That was a mugging.

That ending was just a load of bull.

With red faces on their pit lane wall.

Pulpstar

Corbyn doesn't look to be going anywhere to me. More staying power than Smith.

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

OMG Liz Truss https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157708361703546881

Unpleasant and inept though Liz Truss undoubtedly is, do we really want to give space on PB to tweets from a forger, propagandist, liar and racist like Mendoza?

I know we have the Trump/Farage precedent but they actually have a meaningful bearing on world events.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

It wasn’t the silver arrows who had shot their bolt.


That was a mugging.

That ending was just a load of bull.

With red faces on their pit lane wall.

Dammit, I can't add another pun.

You're just too high energy.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Keeps him in clear air, too, which will be kinder on the car.

Are you saying he was struggling in a murk?

I’ll cede that to you.

Good, or else we'll be going round the Benz.

It wasn’t the silver arrows who had shot their bolt.


That was a mugging.

That ending was just a load of bull.

With red faces on their pit lane wall.

Dammit, I can't add another pun.

You're just too high energy.

That gives me a real sugar rush.

Off to do stuff. Later.

Luckyguy1983

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

OMG Liz Truss https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157708361703546881

Unpleasant and inept though Liz Truss undoubtedly is, do we really want to give space on PB to tweets from a forger, propagandist, liar and racist like Mendoza?

I know we have the Trump/Farage precedent but they actually have a meaningful bearing on world events.

There's a huge volume of material posted from Twitter recently as if PB was a retweet. I don't know what the answer is.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: better race than I expected but all the bets failed

Be intrigued to see what this does to Verstappen's title odds. They were 17.

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn doesn't look to be going anywhere to me. More staying power than Smith.

He did pretty well when he was up against a bloke called Smith.

England should think laterally and call him up for Lord's.

Byronic

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Or getting wet.

Odds evens on Aussie or draw according to Sky, no doubt taking into account the weather forecast

For the last time, I humbly point PBers to this comment I made yesterday afternoon

"Byronic Posts: 919
August 3

Actually, that unhappy weather forecast might offer VALUE

If the BBC weather-site is right we will lose afternoon and evening sessions tomorrow.....

A draw is 22/1 right now."

matt

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

OMG Liz Truss https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157708361703546881

Unpleasant and inept though Liz Truss undoubtedly is, do we really want to give space on PB to tweets from a forger, propagandist, liar and racist like Mendoza?

I know we have the Trump/Farage precedent but they actually have a meaningful bearing on world events.

There's a huge volume of material posted from Twitter recently as if PB was a retweet. I don't know what the answer is.

Treat those who spend their time posting it without showing any evidence of original, or indeed any, thought with the contempt they deserve? Ignore it [viewing without a VPN in China will force you to do that by default - it’s no material loss].

JBriskinindyref2

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: better race than I expected but all the bets failed

Be intrigued to see what this does to Verstappen's title odds. They were 17.

Issa Winnar

You're not thinking of backing Verstappen for the title are you???

HYUFD

As the above poll shows removing Corbyn as Labour leader barely changes the Tory and Brexit Party vote, Tories down 2% and Brexit Party unchanged.

The main change is the LDs down 5% with those voters going Labour. So the longer Corbyn and Corbynism stays the greater the threat the LDs pose to Labour, with Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 3rd and just 7% behind Labour, without Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 4th and 21% behind Labour

FrancisUrquhart

Byronic said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have a feeling i will be having a miserable day tomorrow watching England collapse.

Or getting wet.

Odds evens on Aussie or draw according to Sky, no doubt taking into account the weather forecast

For the last time, I humbly point PBers to this comment I made yesterday afternoon

"Byronic Posts: 919
August 3

Actually, that unhappy weather forecast might offer VALUE

If the BBC weather-site is right we will lose afternoon and evening sessions tomorrow.....

A draw is 22/1 right now."

Edit.

FrancisUrquhart

Why the bloody hell is Joe Root bowling with the new ball?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

JBriskinindyref2

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

You are!

Well you might get some value I guess.

Truth be told my qualifying betfair min bet of Vettel has eaten into my margins this weekend (He came fifth in a five-way - But I was getting 20/1!)

JBriskinindyref2

RE:thread header

Not like TSE to be so equivocal in his betting advice.

JBriskinindyref2

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Indyref, not sure what they are but the odds on Hamilton will be very very short now.

JBriskinindyref2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Lol Hamilton at 1.06 so no

Morris_Dancer

F1: post-race ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hungary-post-race-analysis-2019.html

JBriskinindyref2

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, not sure what they are but the odds on Hamilton will be very very short now.

Yeah I DMOR - Max still at 17, not moved

JBriskinindyref2

I hate it when the strips clash that badly - Why is this allowed to happened in 21C ???

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1157874586261831680

Sandpit

JBriskinindyref2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Lol Hamilton at 1.06 so no

Not a surprise after what happened today. 1.06 is basically betting against him getting injured and missing a load of races. Vettel and Bottas are both falling away, and Verstappen is so far back that he can win every race remaining and Lewis can come second and still win the title.

However much Mercedes pay strategist James Vowles, he’s worth every penny of it. (Probably 20 or 30 million pennies).

JBriskinindyref2

Sandpit said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Lol Hamilton at 1.06 so no

Not a surprise after what happened today. 1.06 is basically betting against him getting injured and missing a load of races. Vettel and Bottas are both falling away, and Verstappen is so far back that he can win every race remaining and Lewis can come second and still win the title.

However much Mercedes pay strategist James Vowles, he’s worth every penny of it. (Probably 20 or 30 million pennies).

Well as nailed on as he is I ain't backing at that price. Race by race there might be some of that elusive Value.

JBriskinindyref2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sandpit said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Lol Hamilton at 1.06 so no

Not a surprise after what happened today. 1.06 is basically betting against him getting injured and missing a load of races. Vettel and Bottas are both falling away, and Verstappen is so far back that he can win every race remaining and Lewis can come second and still win the title.

However much Mercedes pay strategist James Vowles, he’s worth every penny of it. (Probably 20 or 30 million pennies).

Well as nailed on as he is I ain't backing at that price. Race by race there might be some of that elusive Value.

Next one in a months time - summer break nicely timed to coincide with the start of the footie season - It's almost like Sky Sports don't let you cancel.

Sandpit

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sandpit said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indyref, he'd be 50 points behind and worth a look if he'd won today. As it is, Hamilton stretched his advantage.

I do think Red Bull should be tasty at some circuits, especially Singapore, and they've developed a lot. Not sure they have the races to capitalise, though.

Is there some way of backing both Lewis and Max for the title? I do think the title race is between them two.

I've backed the pair last two races and made profit each time.

Lol Hamilton at 1.06 so no

Not a surprise after what happened today. 1.06 is basically betting against him getting injured and missing a load of races. Vettel and Bottas are both falling away, and Verstappen is so far back that he can win every race remaining and Lewis can come second and still win the title.

However much Mercedes pay strategist James Vowles, he’s worth every penny of it. (Probably 20 or 30 million pennies).

Well as nailed on as he is I ain't backing at that price. Race by race there might be some of that elusive Value.

Indeed. Much better off putting your money on the cricket, and on individual races between now and the end of the season.

FrancisUrquhart

According to cricwiz, england now only have a 3% chance of winning.

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Brighton Pride: Beach covered with laughing gas canisters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-49225631

Apparently the big scandal is the danger to the animals...not the human drug taking on a mass scale. People need to find a more eco friendly method of getting off their tits.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to cricwiz, england now only have a 3% chance of winning.

That’s rather optimistic.

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Brighton Pride: Beach covered with laughing gas canisters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-49225631

Apparently the big scandal is the danger to the animals...not the human drug taking on a mass scale. People need to find a more eco friendly method of getting off their tits.

Is that what they are? The same canisters are used for ice cream, are they not? How can the beach-cleaners tell the difference?

PClipp

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

What is wrong with the system is the failure of Parliamentarians to respect the Leave vote by either voting for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal

No, it is not the fault of MPs. It is the fault of the Conservative Government from 2016 and the manner in which they chose unilaterally to interpret the result of the 23/6/16 vote. Instead of seeking to open the discussion and unite the country, they shut down debate, told us all we should trust Theresa (which, as it turned out, we didn't) and spent more time trying to keep their fractured little band together.
I didn't vote LEAVE to see us crash out without a Deal - I couldn't conceive of a Government so inept as to allow such a thing to happen. We've wasted three and a half years not sorting out all the other problems and issues facing the country or rather your Party has. It's time to draw stumps and cut our losses.
As for the WA, the genius of Theresa May and her team was in evolving a 585-page mass of legalese which could mean anything to anyone (and presumably they assumed it would be acceptable on that basis). Unfortunately, when people couldn't see what they wanted to see in the morass of verbiage they assumed the worst - it's either an incredibly soft Brexit or it's too hard. Thus, May has managed to antagonise everybody and seen her WA crash and burn.
I'm sure there was a satisfactory deal to be had but May spent too much time trying to come up with something she could sell to the Conservative Party she forgot she had to sell it to everyone else (including the 48% who voted REMAIN and have a say in all this).

Absolutely, Mr Stodge, I couldn`t agree with you more. The whole Brexit nonsense has been a squalid little attempt to patch up internal disputes within the Conservatives - and the slight infection within the Conservative Party has now spread to the entire country.

El_Capitano

ydoethur said:

In fairness @leslie48 the Tories should be equally ashamed of themselves for electing their own form of Corbyn as leader.

That’s unfair to Corbyn (four words I have never before uttered in that order). Corbyn does at least have principles and a burning, if misguided, desire to make the world a better place. ABDPJohnson just wants to be world king.

PClipp

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Brighton Pride: Beach covered with laughing gas canisters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-49225631
Apparently the big scandal is the danger to the animals...not the human drug taking on a mass scale. People need to find a more eco friendly method of getting off their tits.

Not sure I quite understand this comment.

I expect it is something disreputable, and to do with the Conservative Party.

FrancisUrquhart

PClipp said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Brighton Pride: Beach covered with laughing gas canisters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-49225631
Apparently the big scandal is the danger to the animals...not the human drug taking on a mass scale. People need to find a more eco friendly method of getting off their tits.

Not sure I quite understand this comment.

Environmental activist and blogger Clare Osborn, of Clare Talks Rubbish, is one of Ocean's 8 and said: "We sound like the fun police, but people really need to find more sustainable ways to have fun.

"Every one of these canisters comes with a balloon, and they are so incredibly dangerous and deadly to wildlife, which can mistake the bits of balloon for food."

rottenborough

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

JBriskinindyref2

PClipp said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Brighton Pride: Beach covered with laughing gas canisters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-49225631
Apparently the big scandal is the danger to the animals...not the human drug taking on a mass scale. People need to find a more eco friendly method of getting off their tits.

Not sure I quite understand this comment.

I expect it is something disreputable, and to do with the Conservative Party.

He's taking an anti-hedonist stance. Yeah, I guess you're right; not quite understandable

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

They are still going to get an hour at England.

The question is what is the under / over on the time I shall be leaving Edgbaston tomorrow having witnessed England get stuffed?

PClipp

HYUFD said:

As the above poll shows removing Corbyn as Labour leader barely changes the Tory and Brexit Party vote, Tories down 2% and Brexit Party unchanged.

The main change is the LDs down 5% with those voters going Labour. So the longer Corbyn and Corbynism stays the greater the threat the LDs pose to Labour, with Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 3rd and just 7% behind Labour, without Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 4th and 21% behind Labour

Sounds like HY talking up the Labour Party.

This must be because his Tory HQ friends see the Lib Dems as the greatest threat to Tory hegemony.

Byronic

PClipp said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

What is wrong with the system is the failure of Parliamentarians to respect the Leave vote by either voting for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal

No,is).

Absolutely, Mr Stodge, I couldn`t agree with you more. The whole Brexit nonsense has been a squalid little attempt to patch up internal disputes within the Conservatives - and the slight infection within the Conservative Party has now spread to the entire country.

The "whole Brexit nonsense" is the fault of europhiles, over 40 long years, pretending that we weren't losing any sovereignty, that the EU was just a trading bloc, that there were no plans for a Federal this or EU-wide that, even as everyone could see with their own eyes that this was happening.

To add to this, and much worse, europhiles compounded the deceit with a series of wholly fraudulent offers of referendums - which were then taken away, or forgotten, when it became more politically convenient to ignore the voters.

This built up the pressure which was finally released in the most damaging away, as a vote for OUT. It could have been avoided, entirely, if europhiles had once - just once - given a vote on any of the previous contentious Treaties.

That famous line from Chernobyl is horribly apt.

"Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, the debt is paid"

The endless lies of the europhiles incurred a terrible debt. The repayment was Brexit.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

They are still going to get an hour at England.

The question is what is the under / over on the time I shall be leaving Edgbaston tomorrow having witnessed England get stuffed?

I think you’ve already witnessed that - they seem to have given up.
Tomorrow will be attending the last rites; dress in black.

HYUFD

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

As the above poll shows removing Corbyn as Labour leader barely changes the Tory and Brexit Party vote, Tories down 2% and Brexit Party unchanged.

The main change is the LDs down 5% with those voters going Labour. So the longer Corbyn and Corbynism stays the greater the threat the LDs pose to Labour, with Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 3rd and just 7% behind Labour, without Corbyn as Labour leader the LDs are 4th and 21% behind Labour

Sounds like HY talking up the Labour Party.

This must be because his Tory HQ friends see the Lib Dems as the greatest threat to Tory hegemony.

No, there are currently more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD marginals but as Deltapoll shows there are quite a few Remainers who will only vote Labour under a non Corbyn leader, otherwise they will vote LD.

As I have said before the only Labour leader I can actually see beating Boris is David Miliband were he to return from being Prince across the Water, for the moment as Deltapoll shows the LDs mainly divide the non Tory vote, it would take at least 1 more general election and Corbynism to maintain control of Labour for the LDs actually to have a chance of leading a government, maybe under Chuka Umunna

JBriskinindyref2

On topic - kinda

I've already laid Oct 19 as next general election because of peer pressure on here. So that's all well and good. I'm thinking of laying more - my only question is.... Do I have to wait until 2020 to be paid?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135

AndyJS

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

They are still going to get an hour at England.

The question is what is the under / over on the time I shall be leaving Edgbaston tomorrow having witnessed England get stuffed?

Rain is forecast in the morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2650236

Sandpit

.

rottenborough said:

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

In any other match than the first Test of an away (for them) Ashes series, yes.

But given the match, they’d rather declare too late and take the draw.

Nigelb

PClipp said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

What is wrong with the system is the failure of Parliamentarians to respect the Leave vote by either voting for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal

No, it is not the fault of MPs. It is the fault of the Conservative Government from 2016 and the manner in which they chose unilaterally to interpret the result of the 23/6/16 vote. Instead of seeking to open the discussion and unite the country, they shut down debate, told us all we should trust Theresa (which, as it turned out, we didn't) and spent more time trying to keep their fractured little band together.
I didn't vote LEAVE to see us crash out without a Deal - I couldn't conceive of a Government so inept as to allow such a thing to happen. We've wasted three and a half years not sorting out all the other problems and issues facing the country or rather your Party has. It's time to draw stumps and cut our losses.
As for the WA, the genius of Theresa May and her team was in evolving a 585-page mass of legalese which could mean anything to anyone (and presumably they assumed it would be acceptable on that basis). Unfortunately, when people couldn't see what they wanted to see in the morass of verbiage they assumed the worst - it's either an incredibly soft Brexit or it's too hard. Thus, May has managed to antagonise everybody and seen her WA crash and burn.
I'm sure there was a satisfactory deal to be had but May spent too much time trying to come up with something she could sell to the Conservative Party she forgot she had to sell it to everyone else (including the 48% who voted REMAIN and have a say in all this).

Absolutely, Mr Stodge, I couldn`t agree with you more. The whole Brexit nonsense has been a squalid little attempt to patch up internal disputes within the Conservatives - and the slight infection within the Conservative Party has now spread to the entire country.

If it were only that, we wouldn’t be where we are.
Though I’m quite happy to apportion the bulk of the blame to the Conservatives.

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

What is wrong with the system is the failure of Parliamentarians to respect the Leave vote by either voting for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal

No, it is not the fault of MPs. It is the fault of the Conservative Government from 2016 and the manner in which they chose unilaterally to interpret the result of the 23/6/16 vote. Instead of seeking to open the discussion and unite the country, they shut down debate, told us all we should trust Theresa (which, as it turned out, we didn't) and spent more time trying to keep their fractured little band together.

I didn't vote LEAVE to see us crash out without a Deal - I couldn't conceive of a Government so inept as to allow such a thing to happen. We've wasted three and a half years not sorting out all the other problems and issues facing the country or rather your Party has. It's time to draw stumps and cut our losses.

As for the WA, the genius of Theresa May and her team was in evolving a 585-page mass of legalese which could mean anything to anyone (and presumably they assumed it would be acceptable on that basis). Unfortunately, when people couldn't see what they wanted to see in the morass of verbiage they assumed the worst - it's either an incredibly soft Brexit or it's too hard. Thus, May has managed to antagonise everybody and seen her WA crash and burn.

I'm sure there was a satisfactory deal to be had but May spent too much time trying to come up with something she could sell to the Conservative Party she forgot she had to sell it to everyone else (including the 48% who voted REMAIN and have a say in all this).

Nope, the Withdrawal Agreement met the requirements of the EU ie the exit Bill, citizens' rights and the Irish border to move to the transition period.

The political declaration regarding the future relationship to be negotiated in the transition period was non binding and could have included single market membership or a Canada style FTA depending on how things worked out.

By rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement diehard Remainers made No Deal inevitable and have nobody to blame but themselves

Byronic

To be fair, England look totally knackered, as well they might - having just come from winning the World Cup, for the very first time, in the greatest game of sport in the history of sport.

They must be physically AND emotionally drained. And motivation must be lacking. The Ashes, however historic, cannot match that World Cup win.

AndyJS

Sandpit said:

.

rottenborough said:

Shouldn't Aussies be declaring by now?

In any other match than the first Test of an away (for them) Ashes series, yes.

But given the match, they’d rather declare too late and take the draw.

Indeed, they can't afford to even give England a 1% chance of getting the runs.

rottenborough

No Deal Brexit combined with a massive US-China trade war.

Fasten your seatbelts.

Listen to the ignoramus-in-chief.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1157023746005381120

FrancisUrquhart

360 ahead. Surely that is plenty now.

Nigelb

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1157874586261831680

It’s clearly not a direct comparison, but I’d note that kind of language is near identical to that used in the lead up to the Rwandan genocide.

El_Capitano

Actual lol at this paragraph from https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/04/trigger-ballots-prove-an-unwelcome-distraction-for-under-fire-labour-mps :

However, the group [Momentum]’s mass campaign on the [trigger ballot] issue has also sparked some member mix-ups. “Some members are demanding them in seats where they don’t even have Labour MPs and have to be reminded that first they need to help elect a Labour MP and then they can worry about deselecting them,” one party source said.

AndyJS

FrancisUrquhart said:

360 ahead. Surely that is plenty now.

They'll go for 400 I think.