politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are rubbish in first past the post elections
Our first slate of 50 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates to fight a Brexit general election.
Comments
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Cricviz give Ozzies only 16% chance...ridiculous.0
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Given how many of these candidates are already MEPs and thus would need to give up one or other role if elected as MP, one can assume that the Brexit party are well aware of this.0
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Yes. I'd make it about evens right now. Maybe England slight faves. Absurd!FrancisUrquhart said:Cricviz give Ozzies only 16% chance...ridiculous.
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Suggested alteration to headline:
'Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage's parties are rubbish.'0 -
As long as Smith and Khawaja are there, Aussies are favourites.Byronic said:
Yes. I'd make it about evens right now. Maybe England slight faves. Absurd!FrancisUrquhart said:Cricviz give Ozzies only 16% chance...ridiculous.
And my awesome powers do not work on Smith.0 -
Would have thought that the Tories squeezed the Brexit vote pretty much as far as they could in Brecon. That remaining 10% was probably never Tory in the first place.0
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Moreover, why would Root bowl himself ahead of Denly, who is at least a genuine all rounder in one day cricket?
Root bowls FF. Flighted filth. No chance of taking a wicket.0 -
Michael Gove's parties, on the other hand, are rated class A.ydoethur said:Suggested alteration to headline:
'Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage's parties are rubbish.'1 -
They're looking ominously good. Cruising to 100. Thank the Lord we have a decent lead. Hmm....ydoethur said:
As long as Smith and Khawaja are there, Aussies are favourites.Byronic said:
Yes. I'd make it about evens right now. Maybe England slight faves. Absurd!FrancisUrquhart said:Cricviz give Ozzies only 16% chance...ridiculous.
And my awesome powers do not work on Smith.0 -
Now that is trolling. Especially at the moment, although you couldn't know (and I can't say too much) that it looks as if the new exams are about to be the subject of legal action due to errors by OFQUAL and the exam boards.DecrepitJohnL said:
Michael Gove's parties, on the other hand, are rated class A.ydoethur said:Suggested alteration to headline:
'Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage's parties are rubbish.'0 -
Presumably there is a residual UKIP voter, who perhaps now votes BXP, but as a long standing kipper they will not vote Tory.houndtang said:Would have thought that the Tories squeezed the Brexit vote pretty much as far as they could in Brecon. That remaining 10% was probably never Tory in the first place.
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I thank you again...0
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Pedant's Corner ; 7 x7 = 491
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Hooray!0
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I think Farage is one of the fifty.JBriskinindyref2 said:Pedant's Corner ; 7 x7 = 49
Will he tell us which constituency he will stand in?0 -
Have to rely on foreigner to do the job again...0
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MEPs? Farage doesn't seem to realise sometimes, especially if you are not the incumbent, you need to spend months and years on the ground, in a constituency meeting people, and getting to know the issues.AlastairMeeks said:Given how many of these candidates are already MEPs and thus would need to give up one or other role if elected as MP, one can assume that the Brexit party are well aware of this.
Not troughing in Brussels or Strasbourg.0 -
Boris will do all he can to avoid a GE unless it is clear Farage will coupon with him, I reckon.
Obviously the VoNC over No Deal insanity will force the situation, but he may duck and dive in September.
Ironically, this will reduce trust in him and shore up BXP.
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You can get 9/4 on Australia on BFE if you're looking for VALUEByronic said:
Yes. I'd make it about evens right now. Maybe England slight faves. Absurd!FrancisUrquhart said:Cricviz give Ozzies only 16% chance...ridiculous.
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I've gone off Brexit party since they were my Euro vote. One of the main reasons was to keep the Scottish/English vote as symmetrical as possible.
But if they're just going to act as spoilers for the tories, well I guess I'm politically homeless at the moment.0 -
4th day looks unlikely now.0
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Huh?rottenborough said:4th day looks unlikely now.
Should that be fifth day?
And if it does go to day 5 you can join DavidL in ConHome.0 -
The Buckingham flight stunt was GE2010.0
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Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Alexandra Phillips and Robert Rowland are all MEPs. There may be others I haven’t spotted yet.dixiedean said:
MEPs? Farage doesn't seem to realise sometimes, especially if you are not the incumbent, you need to spend months and years on the ground, in a constituency meeting people, and getting to know the issues.AlastairMeeks said:Given how many of these candidates are already MEPs and thus would need to give up one or other role if elected as MP, one can assume that the Brexit party are well aware of this.
Not troughing in Brussels or Strasbourg.0 -
I think England need to pitch a specialist spinner.-1
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Are the MEPs in seats where they live, or are these seats that the elite who run BXP think are winnable.AlastairMeeks said:
Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Alexandra Phillips and Robert Rowland are all MEPs. There may be others I haven’t spotted yet.dixiedean said:
MEPs? Farage doesn't seem to realise sometimes, especially if you are not the incumbent, you need to spend months and years on the ground, in a constituency meeting people, and getting to know the issues.AlastairMeeks said:Given how many of these candidates are already MEPs and thus would need to give up one or other role if elected as MP, one can assume that the Brexit party are well aware of this.
Not troughing in Brussels or Strasbourg.
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He ain't wrong.rottenborough said:twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157673646502137858
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And the Tories did better seatwise in 2015 when there was a high UKIP vote than they did in 2017 when it was almost non-existent.rottenborough said:
Presumably there is a residual UKIP voter, who perhaps now votes BXP, but as a long standing kipper they will not vote Tory.houndtang said:Would have thought that the Tories squeezed the Brexit vote pretty much as far as they could in Brecon. That remaining 10% was probably never Tory in the first place.
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Clueless oaf. He's another one who's never heard of Lord Goderich.rottenborough said:0 -
It would be a fairly good start if we picked seamers who are fully fit.FrancisUrquhart said:I think England need to pitch a specialist spinner.
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Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
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To be fair to Farage - I don't think it's a problem that's exclusive to him, but rather all insurgent parties in a FPTP system that rewards know-how, long-term local presence, building data and where established parties can use that to put the squeeze on outsider parties.
It's just that he makes a load of noise about overturning the system and people buy it due to his historic success at the Euros.0 -
False dichotomy.another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
If we didn't whine about foreign holidays costing a fortune, we wouldn't be British.
And so the tourists wouldn't come.0 -
How many overs left today? Can easily see Aussie being all out before close of play.ydoethur said:
Huh?rottenborough said:4th day looks unlikely now.
Should that be fifth day?
And if it does go to day 5 you can join DavidL in ConHome.0 -
Do these tourists bring jobs to London exclusively or around the UK as a whole?another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
Not sure many jobs in places like Sunderland are supported by these long haul tourists.0 -
We're very much up against it now.
No lead, and two top quality batsmen looking in no trouble at all.0 -
If Our Genial Host could get a screenshot of that to Specsavers, he could retire to the Costa del Sol a millionaire.rottenborough said:
How many overs left today? Can easily see Aussie being all out before close of play.ydoethur said:
Huh?rottenborough said:4th day looks unlikely now.
Should that be fifth day?
And if it does go to day 5 you can join DavidL in ConHome.0 -
I think the usual pattern is either boasting how cheap the holiday was or boasting how expensive it was depending on which will impress the listener the most.ydoethur said:
False dichotomy.another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
If we didn't whine about foreign holidays costing a fortune, we wouldn't be British.
And so the tourists wouldn't come.0 -
Plenty of them in the Midlands - Stratford, Cheltenham, Chester, Bath (which isn't the Midlands).ManchesterKurt said:
Do these tourists bring jobs to London exclusively or around the UK as a whole?another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
Not sure many jobs in places like Sunderland are supported by these long haul tourists.0 -
ydoethur said:
If Our Genial Host could get a screenshot of that to Specsavers, he could retire to the Costa del Sol a millionaire.rottenborough said:
How many overs left today? Can easily see Aussie being all out before close of play.ydoethur said:
Huh?rottenborough said:4th day looks unlikely now.
Should that be fifth day?
And if it does go to day 5 you can join DavidL in ConHome.
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Their connections with the constituencies are not obvious. Rupert Lowe’s connection with Southampton Itchen looks more substantial than Alexandra Phillips’ - but his might not be a vote winner.rottenborough said:
Are the MEPs in seats where they live, or are these seats that the elite who run BXP think are winnable.AlastairMeeks said:
Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Alexandra Phillips and Robert Rowland are all MEPs. There may be others I haven’t spotted yet.dixiedean said:
MEPs? Farage doesn't seem to realise sometimes, especially if you are not the incumbent, you need to spend months and years on the ground, in a constituency meeting people, and getting to know the issues.AlastairMeeks said:Given how many of these candidates are already MEPs and thus would need to give up one or other role if elected as MP, one can assume that the Brexit party are well aware of this.
Not troughing in Brussels or Strasbourg.0 -
I note that Celtic have started their season with a 7-0 win.
I might actually vote separatist if they promised to ban the sectarian bile that is the Glasgow clubs0 -
20 overs left tonight. Australia could be well well ahead.0
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Utter car crash interview with Truss.
EM: "What do you think of another referendum?"
LT: "Terrible idea" waffle waffle etc etc
EM: "What if people have changed their minds?"
LT: "I don't think people have changed their minds."
EM: "You have."
And that is after the disaster she made on an austerity question.
https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/11576242802739036180 -
Nearly worked.....ydoethur said:We're very much up against it now.
No lead, and two top quality batsmen looking in no trouble at all.0 -
My touch has gone. Couldn't get Head out if I compared him to Bradman.MarqueeMark said:
Nearly worked.....ydoethur said:We're very much up against it now.
No lead, and two top quality batsmen looking in no trouble at all.
Nailed on for a triple.0 -
He has missed some spectacular open goals though. His performance in Buckingham when he was actually beaten into third by the pro-EU Conservative John Stevens, sometime of this parish, was a case in point.MJW said:To be fair to Farage - I don't think it's a problem that's exclusive to him, but rather all insurgent parties in a FPTP system that rewards know-how, long-term local presence, building data and where established parties can use that to put the squeeze on outsider parties.
It's just that he makes a load of noise about overturning the system and people buy it due to his historic success at the Euros.0 -
In all seriousness though - the sooner we have a BPL the better. Britain's going to be along for a long time and these will be remembered as very quaint times when we had a tiny little separate northern league.JBriskinindyref2 said:I note that Celtic have started their season with a 7-0 win.
I might actually vote separatist if they promised to ban the sectarian bile that is the Glasgow clubs0 -
Seems to be jobs all over the country:ManchesterKurt said:
Do these tourists bring jobs to London exclusively or around the UK as a whole?another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
Not sure many jobs in places like Sunderland are supported by these long haul tourists.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/articles/tourismemploymentsummaries/characteristicsoftourismindustries2014
And given the multitude of hotels and restaurants which have opened in untouristy South Yorkshire in recent years that number is likely to be increasing.0 -
Don't think there will ever be a BPL. A European Premier League however...JBriskinindyref2 said:
In all seriousness though - the sooner we have a BPL the better. Britain's going to be along for a long time and these will be remembered as very quaint times when we had a tiny little separate northern league.
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Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.0
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"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
I think, for no apparent reason, Australia will get about 320. Meaning England will have to chase about 230, on a crumbling wicket, with the threat of rain, into the final day.FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
It could be splendidly tense and exciting.
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US Presidential post debate Harvard/Harris Poll: Biden 34, Sanders 17, Harris 9, Warren 8, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 3. But it is The Hill's analysis I find more interesting (The Hill is probably described as moderate, or even Establishment, Republican for those unfamiliar with it):
"Biden’s lead is down some from the previous survey conducted in late May, before the Democratic debates. At the time, the poll showed Biden holding a 30-point lead over Sanders and registering 44 percent support among Democrats.
"But the former vice president remains in a strong position, with 46 percent of Democrats viewing him as having the best chance to defeat President Trump. Fifteen percent of Democrats said Sanders has the best shot at knocking off Trump, followed by Warren at 7 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
"A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.
"Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.
"Health care is by far the top issue for Democratic voters, with 45 percent calling it their top priority, followed by immigration at 29 percent and jobs and the economy at 20 percent."0 -
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
I think Oz will get 280-300, and we'll be all out for 150FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
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Thanks. Biden remains best placed to beat Trump. I can't see how he isn't the nominee, unless Dem primary voters lose the plot.MTimT said:US Presidential post debate Harvard/Harris Poll: Biden 34, Sanders 17, Harris 9, Warren 8, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 3. But it is The Hill's analysis I find more interesting (The Hill is probably described as moderate, or even Establishment, Republican for those unfamiliar with it):
"Biden’s lead is down some from the previous survey conducted in late May, before the Democratic debates. At the time, the poll showed Biden holding a 30-point lead over Sanders and registering 44 percent support among Democrats.
"But the former vice president remains in a strong position, with 46 percent of Democrats viewing him as having the best chance to defeat President Trump. Fifteen percent of Democrats said Sanders has the best shot at knocking off Trump, followed by Warren at 7 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
"A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.
"Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.
"Health care is by far the top issue for Democratic voters, with 45 percent calling it their top priority, followed by immigration at 29 percent and jobs and the economy at 20 percent."0 -
Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC0
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Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.ydoethur said:
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
Hang on a minute, whatever happened to Billy Bunter's new optimism for Britain, the "can do" attitude ?rcs1000 said:
I think Oz will get 280-300, and we'll be all out for 150FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
Everything's going to be great, Britain's going to be great again.
I'll get me MBGA cap....0 -
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
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You can still get quite generous odds against the Aussiesrcs1000 said:
I think Oz will get 280-300, and we'll be all out for 150FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
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The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
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"splendidly tense and exciting" Doesn't that describe all England batting performances?Byronic said:
I think, for no apparent reason, Australia will get about 320. Meaning England will have to chase about 230, on a crumbling wicket, with the threat of rain, into the final day.FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
It could be splendidly tense and exciting.0 -
This pair will still be batting this time tomorrow.......Byronic said:
I think, for no apparent reason, Australia will get about 320. Meaning England will have to chase about 230, on a crumbling wicket, with the threat of rain, into the final day.FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
It could be splendidly tense and exciting.0 -
MTimT said:
US Presidential post debate Harvard/Harris Poll: Biden 34, Sanders 17, Harris 9, Warren 8, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 3. But it is The Hill's analysis I find more interesting (The Hill is probably described as moderate, or even Establishment, Republican for those unfamiliar with it):
"Biden’s lead is down some from the previous survey conducted in late May, before the Democratic debates. At the time, the poll showed Biden holding a 30-point lead over Sanders and registering 44 percent support among Democrats.
"But the former vice president remains in a strong position, with 46 percent of Democrats viewing him as having the best chance to defeat President Trump. Fifteen percent of Democrats said Sanders has the best shot at knocking off Trump, followed by Warren at 7 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
"A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.
"Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.
"Health care is by far the top issue for Democratic voters, with 45 percent calling it their top priority, followed by immigration at 29 percent and jobs and the economy at 20 percent."
Biden now looks likely to have pushed back Harris to be the main candidate of centrists within the Democratic Party but the Warren and Sanders combined vote is 25% not too far behind his 34%, if either Warren or Sanders beat Biden in Iowa or New Hampshire they certainly still have a shot at the nomination.
Still less than half, 47%, put picking a candidate with the strongest chance of winning ie Biden first, 48% still back picking a candidate who shares their positions or shares their positions and has a good chance of winning
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Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
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Cricwiz still have Ozzies ~20%, English 67%. Absolute nonsense.Byronic said:
You can still get quite generous odds against the Aussiesrcs1000 said:
I think Oz will get 280-300, and we'll be all out for 150FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
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Trying to be as neutral as possible, I think it's pretty much evens now. Beautifully balanced. Insh'allah the rain stays away.FrancisUrquhart said:
Cricwiz still have Ozzies ~20%, English 67%. Absolute nonsense.Byronic said:
You can still get quite generous odds against the Aussiesrcs1000 said:
I think Oz will get 280-300, and we'll be all out for 150FrancisUrquhart said:Australia 160+ by the end of play. 250 by lunch tomorrow. 350 by tea. England out of the game by the end of the day 4.
The Cricwiz odds are bizarre.0 -
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.MikeSmithson said:
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.ydoethur said:
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
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## Fantasy Football ##
I've recreated the Political Betting League and with TSE performing the mirror image of his football team, all entrants can be sure they won't finish last based on past performance.
If any new recruits are interested the code is k7d6qz
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/0 -
Give us a clue!rcs1000 said:
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.MikeSmithson said:
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.ydoethur said:
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html1 -
Ok, I was way wrong about the Aussies. 4th day of play secured.0
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Atlanta I've heard of?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
But I think you must be confusing Carson Galaxy with the team who plays in Los Angeles, LAFC0 -
Do you go to the matches? Those crazy yanks look like they're having a great time there. I like it when they high-five each other after a goal. It's all a bit second rate of course but perfectly timed for the 10/11 BST slot.rcs1000 said:
Atlanta I've heard of?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
But I think you must be confusing Carson Galaxy with the team who plays in Los Angeles, LAFC0 -
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.HYUFD said:The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes. The problem is whether in the event of significant economic dislocation, that coalition will remain solid or will it turn round and blame the Conservatives for making a mess of a No Deal exit (which would be unfair to a point but politics isn't fair as we know).
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?0 -
Underwater polo?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
0 -
Can the French ever have a demonstration without burning the place?
French police clashes erupt in Nantes
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-492210660 -
Ha ha MLS of course dummy!DavidL said:
Underwater polo?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
0 -
An alternative view from Cohen in NYT. It has to be Harris:HYUFD said:MTimT said:US Presidential post debate Harvard/Harris Poll: Biden 34, Sanders 17, Harris 9, Warren 8, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 3. But it is The Hill's analysis I find more interesting (The Hill is probably described as moderate, or even Establishment, Republican for those unfamiliar with it):
"Biden’s lead is down some from the previous survey conducted in late May, before the Democratic debates. At the time, the poll showed Biden holding a 30-point lead over Sanders and registering 44 percent support among Democrats.
"But the former vice president remains in a strong position, with 46 percent of Democrats viewing him as having the best chance to defeat President Trump. Fifteen percent of Democrats said Sanders has the best shot at knocking off Trump, followed by Warren at 7 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
"A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.
"Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.
"Health care is by far the top issue for Democratic voters, with 45 percent calling it their top priority, followed by immigration at 29 percent and jobs and the economy at 20 percent."
Biden now looks likely to have pushed back Harris to be the main candidate of centrists within the Democratic Party but the Warren and Sanders combined vote is 25% not too far behind his 34%, if either Warren or Sanders beat Biden in Iowa or New Hampshire they certainly still have a shot at the nomination.
Still less than half, 47%, put picking a candidate with the strongest chance of winning ie Biden first, 48% still back picking a candidate who shares their positions or shares their positions and has a good chance of winning
"With reluctance, because he is a good and honorable man of great personal courage, I do not believe that Joe Biden has the needed energy, mental agility and nimbleness."
"[Harris] has a former prosecutor’s toughness and the ability to slice through Trump’s self-important bluster."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/opinion/trump-2020-kamala-harris.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage0 -
Totally off topic, I am currently flying Air New Zealand from London to LA. It cost about £100 less in Business Class than flying BA Premium Economy, and it's excellent. Great wine, and terrific service
Highly recommended if anyone needs to fly to LA
0 -
No the reason they are crap at FPTP elections is they don’t understand that you need to work at it. Even if you start from scratch at a by-election you still need to plan and organize a delivery network, you need to identify where your voters are and then you need a process to get them to actually vote on the day. If your clever you will have identified where the next election is and sorted out postals etc.HYUFD said:The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
Now although a general election is different you still need to do the fundamentals, what I can’t comprehend is how they seem to have ‘000s of supporters none of them have a clue.
If they come from the elderly edge of the Tory’s in deepest blue Tory land where elections are slightly easier then it could be understandable but you know, being at the sharp end what’s involved in winning elections, or so I would hope.0 -
If we do leave on 31 October, they should definitely change their name as soon as possible.HYUFD said:The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
Continuing as the Brexit Party would be rather like calling themselves the Anthrax Party or the Puppy Torture Campaign.0 -
I must say, I do worry about the Biden nimbleness in the POTUS debates.
OGH keeps saying he is too old. But can Harris really beat Trump? It has to be between these two now surely?0 -
I'm a season ticket holder at LAFC, and I love itJBriskinindyref2 said:
Do you go to the matches? Those crazy yanks look like they're having a great time there. I like it when they high-five each other after a goal. It's all a bit second rate of course but perfectly timed for the 10/11 BST slot.rcs1000 said:
Atlanta I've heard of?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
But I think you must be confusing Carson Galaxy with the team who plays in Los Angeles, LAFC
0 -
The game against Carson Galaxy at the end of August will be epicrcs1000 said:
I'm a season ticket holder at LAFC, and I love itJBriskinindyref2 said:
Do you go to the matches? Those crazy yanks look like they're having a great time there. I like it when they high-five each other after a goal. It's all a bit second rate of course but perfectly timed for the 10/11 BST slot.rcs1000 said:
Atlanta I've heard of?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Have I typoed or something - Atlantis versus the LA team. I'll be watching anyway.rcs1000 said:
Who?JBriskinindyref2 said:
That's all well and good but it's Atlanta United V LA Galaxy that will be on our telly screensrcs1000 said:Six and a half hours until the only match that really matters: New England Revolution vs LAFC
But I think you must be confusing Carson Galaxy with the team who plays in Los Angeles, LAFC0 -
I've heard they are very good: they are trying to compete with Emirates etc.rcs1000 said:Totally off topic, I am currently flying Air New Zealand from London to LA. It cost about £100 less in Business Class than flying BA Premium Economy, and it's excellent. Great wine, and terrific service
Highly recommended if anyone needs to fly to LA
And I have to go to New Orleans in October. Hmm....0 -
If only Farage had worked through the same logic and managed to think of some way to make sure the Tories can’t get a majority before Brexit and to maximise their chances of being pushed into opposition if there is to be forced election?HYUFD said:The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
If he comes up with anything, it would be worth having a thread on it.1 -
I'm telling Extinction Rebellion about you twoByronic said:
I've heard they are very good: they are trying to compete with Emirates etc.rcs1000 said:Totally off topic, I am currently flying Air New Zealand from London to LA. It cost about £100 less in Business Class than flying BA Premium Economy, and it's excellent. Great wine, and terrific service
Highly recommended if anyone needs to fly to LA
And I have to go to New Orleans in October. Hmm....
0 -
I know how he feelsAndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html 0 -
Ask Alistair Campbell how he copes.RochdalePioneers said:
I know how he feelsAndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
You can’t leave us like that...rcs1000 said:
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.MikeSmithson said:
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.ydoethur said:
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html
(...Greening?)0 -
I'm going to the RSS Conference in Belfast. I'm going on a plane! I'll appraise you of the difference in quality...rcs1000 said:Totally off topic, I am currently flying Air New Zealand from London to LA. It cost about £100 less in Business Class than flying BA Premium Economy, and it's excellent. Great wine, and terrific service
Highly recommended if anyone needs to fly to LA 0 -
Me. According to the cultists who have been banging on about me being a Tory for agesEl_Capitano said:
You can’t leave us like that...rcs1000 said:
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.MikeSmithson said:
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.ydoethur said:
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.AndyJS said:"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html
(...Greening?)2 -
It's better to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough.another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ? 0 -
Although, it is only fair to point out that Sunderland Uni, and the northeast in general has the highest proportion of Chinese students in the UK.ManchesterKurt said:
Do these tourists bring jobs to London exclusively or around the UK as a whole?another_richard said:Have we had multiple tweets referring to this pasted on PB today ?
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
Not sure many jobs in places like Sunderland are supported by these long haul tourists.
Assuming the plan isn't to discourage them coming right now.0 -
I get the feeling the reason for this seeming illogicality is simple. Farage can't be arsed doing the hard yards of organising, preferring grandstanding and troughing.nichomar said:
No the reason they are crap at FPTP elections is they don’t understand that you need to work at it. Even if you start from scratch at a by-election you still need to plan and organize a delivery network, you need to identify where your voters are and then you need a process to get them to actually vote on the day. If your clever you will have identified where the next election is and sorted out postals etc.HYUFD said:The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
Now although a general election is different you still need to do the fundamentals, what I can’t comprehend is how they seem to have ‘000s of supporters none of them have a clue.
If they come from the elderly edge of the Tory’s in deepest blue Tory land where elections are slightly easier then it could be understandable but you know, being at the sharp end what’s involved in winning elections, or so I would hope.
And, he can't allow anyone else to do it, as that would be an alternative power centre. Who might dispute the rightness of the Leader for Life.
0
