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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are rubbish in first past the post elections
Our first slate of 50 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates to fight a Brexit general election.
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'Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage's parties are rubbish.'
And my awesome powers do not work on Smith.
Root bowls FF. Flighted filth. No chance of taking a wicket.
Will he tell us which constituency he will stand in?
Not troughing in Brussels or Strasbourg.
And Travis Head is hardly a mug. There's a reasonable chance in six months he'll be captain of Australia.
Obviously the VoNC over No Deal insanity will force the situation, but he may duck and dive in September.
Ironically, this will reduce trust in him and shore up BXP.
But if they're just going to act as spoilers for the tories, well I guess I'm politically homeless at the moment.
Should that be fifth day?
And if it does go to day 5 you can join DavidL in ConHome.
The number of tourists visiting the UK from China has risen by almost a fifth this summer, the latest figures show.
Travel data firm ForwardKeys said that summer flight bookings from long-haul markets were also 6% higher than in the same period last year.
"This summer is likely to see the highest number of Chinese tourists to the UK ever," said ForwardKeys spokesman David Tarsh.
He added that the number of Indian tourists was ahead by 20%, with Japan at 10% and the USA at 5%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203813
Now here's a question for you all - given that the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better that we encourage overseas visitors to the UK or to whine that foreign holidays aren't cheap enough ?
It's just that he makes a load of noise about overturning the system and people buy it due to his historic success at the Euros.
If we didn't whine about foreign holidays costing a fortune, we wouldn't be British.
And so the tourists wouldn't come.
Not sure many jobs in places like Sunderland are supported by these long haul tourists.
No lead, and two top quality batsmen looking in no trouble at all.
I might actually vote separatist if they promised to ban the sectarian bile that is the Glasgow clubs
EM: "What do you think of another referendum?"
LT: "Terrible idea" waffle waffle etc etc
EM: "What if people have changed their minds?"
LT: "I don't think people have changed their minds."
EM: "You have."
And that is after the disaster she made on an austerity question.
https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1157624280273903618
Nailed on for a triple.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/articles/tourismemploymentsummaries/characteristicsoftourismindustries2014
And given the multitude of hotels and restaurants which have opened in untouristy South Yorkshire in recent years that number is likely to be increasing.
‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html
It could be splendidly tense and exciting.
"Biden’s lead is down some from the previous survey conducted in late May, before the Democratic debates. At the time, the poll showed Biden holding a 30-point lead over Sanders and registering 44 percent support among Democrats.
"But the former vice president remains in a strong position, with 46 percent of Democrats viewing him as having the best chance to defeat President Trump. Fifteen percent of Democrats said Sanders has the best shot at knocking off Trump, followed by Warren at 7 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
"A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.
"Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.
"Health care is by far the top issue for Democratic voters, with 45 percent calling it their top priority, followed by immigration at 29 percent and jobs and the economy at 20 percent."
Everything's going to be great, Britain's going to be great again.
I'll get me MBGA cap....
They were getting that under May and after she extended Article 50 and could thus have expected to pick up a fair number of seats in Leave areas in Kent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales but under Boris they are back to 10-15% ie UKIP 2015 levels which will only see them pick up 1 or 2 seats most likely in ultra Leave areas like Clacton which they won then.
The LDs can pick up a few more eg 12 seats in 2017 on 7% but that is because they have held those seats before and have the data and campaigning experience of those seats which is more difficult for a party like the Brexit Party which is starting from scratch.
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too, otherwise their triumph in the European elections under PR may be the height of their achievements and once we Leave the EU they will become largely a party of those hostile to immigration and globalisation, not much more than 10%
Biden now looks likely to have pushed back Harris to be the main candidate of centrists within the Democratic Party but the Warren and Sanders combined vote is 25% not too far behind his 34%, if either Warren or Sanders beat Biden in Iowa or New Hampshire they certainly still have a shot at the nomination.
Still less than half, 47%, put picking a candidate with the strongest chance of winning ie Biden first, 48% still back picking a candidate who shares their positions or shares their positions and has a good chance of winning
The Cricwiz odds are bizarre.
I've recreated the Political Betting League and with TSE performing the mirror image of his football team, all entrants can be sure they won't finish last based on past performance.
If any new recruits are interested the code is k7d6qz
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/
But I think you must be confusing Carson Galaxy with the team who plays in Los Angeles, LAFC
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes. The problem is whether in the event of significant economic dislocation, that coalition will remain solid or will it turn round and blame the Conservatives for making a mess of a No Deal exit (which would be unfair to a point but politics isn't fair as we know).
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
French police clashes erupt in Nantes
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49221066
"With reluctance, because he is a good and honorable man of great personal courage, I do not believe that Joe Biden has the needed energy, mental agility and nimbleness."
"[Harris] has a former prosecutor’s toughness and the ability to slice through Trump’s self-important bluster."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/opinion/trump-2020-kamala-harris.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Highly recommended if anyone needs to fly to LA
Now although a general election is different you still need to do the fundamentals, what I can’t comprehend is how they seem to have ‘000s of supporters none of them have a clue.
If they come from the elderly edge of the Tory’s in deepest blue Tory land where elections are slightly easier then it could be understandable but you know, being at the sharp end what’s involved in winning elections, or so I would hope.
Continuing as the Brexit Party would be rather like calling themselves the Anthrax Party or the Puppy Torture Campaign.
OGH keeps saying he is too old. But can Harris really beat Trump? It has to be between these two now surely?
And I have to go to New Orleans in October. Hmm....
If he comes up with anything, it would be worth having a thread on it.
(...Greening?)
Assuming the plan isn't to discourage them coming right now.
And, he can't allow anyone else to do it, as that would be an alternative power centre. Who might dispute the rightness of the Leader for Life.