I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
Meanwhile, the returns from this by-election in an area which despite your unconvincing attempts to argue otherwise, has no history of tactical voting, make me very far from certain we have seen peak LibDem.
We may have done, but there are a number of places that seem to be unexpectedly turning to them that are traditionally solidly Labour, while they continue to pick up votes from the Conservatives elsewhere. The evidence is admittedly patchy and circumstantial so far, but it's becoming too substantial to be ignored entirely.
That's not to say the trend will be sustained. Many things can change, and will. But certainly they have a golden chance with both parties run by incompetent headbangers, government paralysed and the economy under pressure to come through the middle.
My arguments re-tactical voting may fail to convince you, but I have no doubt at all that my views are shared by objective psephologists.
How have you no doubt?
From opinions expressed to me!
So bollocks then.
I suggest you check out the John Curtice interview on the BBC News Channel yesterday morning.
I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
Meanwhile, the returns from this by-election in an area which despite your unconvincing attempts to argue otherwise, has no history of tactical voting, make me very far from certain we have seen peak LibDem.
We may have done, but there are a number of places that seem to be unexpectedly turning to them that are traditionally solidly Labour, while they continue to pick up votes from the Conservatives elsewhere. The evidence is admittedly patchy and circumstantial so far, but it's becoming too substantial to be ignored entirely.
That's not to say the trend will be sustained. Many things can change, and will. But certainly they have a golden chance with both parties run by incompetent headbangers, government paralysed and the economy under pressure to come through the middle.
My arguments re-tactical voting may fail to convince you, but I have no doubt at all that my views are shared by objective psehologists.
Then name them. Show me the studies, of this seat, that demonstrate tactical voting is a thing.
Until then, forgive me for being politely sceptical based on the actual evidence available.
I am not going to refer to discussions I have had with others, but you are an historian - and clearly not a psephologist despite having interest in electoral behaviour.
Give sources or be quiet.
I don't divulge private discussions. For what it is worth, I would expect you to largely share the views I expressed a few hours ago re- Brecon & Radnor - ie that effectively Labour has not been seen as being in serious contention since its failure to make progress there in 1997. Ever since, it has been a LibDem v Tory contest.
I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
Meanwhile, the returns from this by-election in an area which despite your unconvincing attempts to argue otherwise, has no history of tactical voting, make me very far from certain we have seen peak LibDem.
We may have done, but there are a number of places that seem to be unexpectedly turning to them that are traditionally solidly Labour, while they continue to pick up votes from the Conservatives elsewhere. The evidence is admittedly patchy and circumstantial so far, but it's becoming too substantial to be ignored entirely.
That's not to say the trend will be sustained. Many things can change, and will. But certainly they have a golden chance with both parties run by incompetent headbangers, government paralysed and the economy under pressure to come through the middle.
My arguments re-tactical voting may fail to convince you, but I have no doubt at all that my views are shared by objective psephologists.
How have you no doubt?
From opinions expressed to me!
So bollocks then.
I suggest you check out the John Curtice interview on the BBC News Channel yesterday morning.
Professor John "sophisticated Scottish electorate" Curtice surely
"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems ‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.
John Redwood?
Somehow I don't think the Lib Dems are his natural home.
Mr Smithson, your articles on UKIP/Brexit Party have the same sort of petulant childish tone of grown up child Cif'ers in the Guardian.
The reality is, with or without MP's Farage has more power in the current debate than your party the LibDems have ever had.
As for Brecon and Radnor, nobody expected them to do well, and most of the LibDems I have read in recent weeks were expecting knocking on a 60% share, does that mean the LibDem campaign was a failure. So you won, and yet it will have 4/5ths of feck all impact on anything.
Do us all a favour grow up, act your age at least have the courtesy of treating your opponents with respect, especially in light of the willingness of the LIbDems to embracing people like Lord Rennard on the Brecon and Radnor campaign trail.
One LibDem suggested a 60% share. The immediate response of the rest was to ask what he was smoking. They all agreed with me it was likely to be close. They were also right - which I wasn't, at least at first - in saying that while narrow their win would be decisive.
Underwhelming though - the LibDems will get very little momentum from their win.
You're entitled to your opinion. I think this was an impressive win. They did make a number of avoidable mistakes, but this was a much wider gap than I expected.
And the simple fact is as well, a win is a win. Even allowing for all the local factors of this seat, they still have an extra MP. To quote Geoffrey Boycott, it's not how, it's how many.
The risk is that they will do as too many have and draw national lessons from this very local seat. That can be done - I've done it myself - but it needs to be done carefully. So far, that doesn't seem to be happening and too many bandwagons are being jumped on instead.
I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
It's not an impossible demand. We should have quite clearly said all along that the backstop was an impossible demand and we would never agree to it.
That's a valid view, but it's too late now to negotiate on that basis. It's impossible in the sense that the current position is that the EU thought they had agreed it with Britain and have said very clearly that it's not - indeed the whole WA is not - up for further discussion. To say "I will only talk to you if you agree in advance to do something you've ruled out" is a demand which can only be intended to get the answer "no". He might just as well have said "I don't want to negotiate with you at all".
So it's really simply really - Scots are bigots when they vote in Holyrood but quite sophisticated non-bigots when it comes to westminster because they don't vote the same way - also turnouts lower for Holyrood (which has more powers over them). So clearly sophisticated.
It's doesn't matter anyway because young Scots vote nationalist - Yay for an Independent Scotland.
I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
Meanwhile, the returns from this by-election in an area which despite your unconvincing attempts to argue otherwise, has no history of tactical voting, make me very far from certain we have seen peak LibDem.
We may have done, but there are a number of places that seem to be unexpectedly turning to them that are traditionally solidly Labour, while they continue to pick up votes from the Conservatives elsewhere. The evidence is admittedly patchy and circumstantial so far, but it's becoming too substantial to be ignored entirely.
That's not to say the trend will be sustained. Many things can change, and will. But certainly they have a golden chance with both parties run by incompetent headbangers, government paralysed and the economy under pressure to come through the middle.
My arguments re-tactical voting may fail to convince you, but I have no doubt at all that my views are shared by objective psephologists.
How have you no doubt?
From opinions expressed to me!
So bollocks then.
I suggest you check out the John Curtice interview on the BBC News Channel yesterday morning.
I missed that - and greatly respect John Curtice. But was he discussing tactical voting re- the 1980s and 1990s onwards in this seat? That is what my earlier discussion with Ydoethur related to - nothing really to do with this week's by election.
I would say Labour ndate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
His turnout figure was also way too low, and my guess remains that he had picked up an on-the-day turnout from somewhere.
The dangers of listening to journalists who know very little about elections!
Perhaps, though he did suggest it was close.
However I agree, certainly here in Epping Forest the villages and rural areas are all solid Tory but the towns like Buckhurst Hill and Epping and Waltham Abbey are mainly a Tory v LD battle with a few Greens too. Labour only really has a presence in Loughton which is basically an outer London suburb
I wouldn’t fancy running an effective GOTV operation in that seat with most of my voters in the rural wards. Indeed without phone numbers it would be pretty much impossible.
However anoce.
There was a clear shift from Brexit Party to Tory in the 10 days over which Boris replaced May as Tory leader and PM
Certainly the LD campaign picked this up, but also a shift from Tory to LibDem by Conservative remain voters. What evidence, other than comparing the poll with the result, is there for a net increase in Tory vote? If the poll didn’t allow for the greater propensity of the elderly to vote, there’s your explanation for the difference.
Turnout in the by election was 59.72%, very high for a by election.
The result was LDs 43%, Tories 39%, Brexit party 10%.
So there was a 10% swing from Brexit Party to Tory over the 10 day period Boris became Tory leader and replaced May as PM and no swing over that period from Tory to LD at all
And now there's been a whopping swing back to Labour!
"My name is Ozymandboris, King of Kings, Look on my Works, ye Mighty and despair ..."
Even with Comres the Tories were up yesterday, the only swing was LD to Labour
"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems ‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.
John Redwood?
Somehow I don't think the Lib Dems are his natural home.
As JohnO pointed out earlier, timmo is a Conservative activist who deliberately talked up the LD prospects in B&R to a ridiculous extent in order presumably to claim the actual result as a "disaster" for the LDs.
I'm also told Surrey County Council employs more people than the EU - well, if that's the standard of knowledge of how local Government functions, we've got a long way to go.
Air NZ, which is a marvellous airline and I can endorse Robert's comments, flies only to LA in North America. They fly to Vancouver and San Francisco from NZ and you can connect onto Star Alliance flights (Air Canada and Virgin respectively) back to the UK.
The flight from London to LA which then continues to Auckland is NZ001 - it's a two hour wait in a transit lounge which is so old I found a Nixon/Agnew sticker under one of the seats.
Going the other way, it's either Cathay to HK, JAL to Tokyo or Singapore Airlines to Singapore all of which link to Air NZ.
Boris will be certainly damned if he doesn't deliver Brexit on 31st October which would be a gift to Farage and Corbyn but provided he does commit to deliver it he will be re elected as it will almost certainly require an autumn general election for Boris to get a mandate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Now we get to the key point. I understand Boris's commitment but he must recognise the chances of getting No Deal through the Commons are very low, he has himself proclaimed the WA "dead" and the EU won't move on the backstop so there won't be further negotiations.
Your view, if I understand you correctly, is Boris goes to the country on the line of promising Brexit on 31/10 and simply wants to re-arrange parliament not to endorse it but rather to stop it not happening by changing the balance to a majority of Conservative MPs supportive of his line.
What of those who want to leave the EU but don't support a No Deal crash out, those who would either prefer to exit via the WA (with its built in transition) or those who would seek a further extension ? How can any of these support a Johnson-led Conservative Party whose primary line seems to be exiting without a Deal since there won't be time to do another WA?
I would say Labour ndate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
His turnout figure was also way too low, and my guess remains that he had picked up an on-the-day turnout from somewhere.
The dangers of listening to journalists who know very little about elections!
Perhaps, though he did suggest it was close.
However I agree, certainly here in Epping Forest the villages and rural areas are all solid Tory but the towns like Buckhurst Hill and Epping and Waltham Abbey are mainly a Tory v LD battle with a few Greens too. Labour only really has a presence in Loughton which is basically an outer London suburb
I wouldn’t fancy running an effective GOTV operation in that seat with most of my voters in the rural wards. Indeed without phone numbers it would be pretty much impossible.
However anoce.
There was a clear shift from Brexit Party to Tory in the 10 days over which Boris replaced May as Tory leader and PM
Certainly the LD campaign picked this up, but also a shift from Tory to LibDem by Conservative remain voters. What evidence, other than comparing the poll with the result, is there for a net increase in Tory vote? If the poll didn’t allow for the greater propensity of the elderly to vote, there’s your explanation for the difference.
Turnout in the by election was 59.72%, very high for a by election.
The result was LDs 43%, Tories 39%, Brexit party 10%.
So there was a 10% swing from Brexit Party to Tory over the 10 day period Boris became Tory leader and replaced May as PM and no swing over that period from Tory to LD at all
And now there's been a whopping swing back to Labour!
"My name is Ozymandboris, King of Kings, Look on my Works, ye Mighty and despair ..."
Even with Comres the Tories were up yesterday, the only swing was LD to Labour
Ah, no, surely you remember? Swings are always just between the Tories and Labour, even if Labour are close to losing their deposit!
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Mr Smithson, your articles on UKIP/Brexit Party have the same sort of petulant childish tone of grown up child Cif'ers in the Guardian.
The reality is, with or without MP's Farage has more power in the current debate than your party the LibDems have ever had.
As for Brecon and Radnor, nobody expected them to do well, and most of the LibDems I have read in recent weeks were expecting knocking on a 60% share, does that mean the LibDem campaign was a failure. So you won, and yet it will have 4/5ths of feck all impact on anything.
Do us all a favour grow up, act your age at least have the courtesy of treating your opponents with respect, especially in light of the willingness of the LIbDems to embracing people like Lord Rennard on the Brecon and Radnor campaign trail.
One LibDem suggested a 60% share. The immediate response of the rest was to ask what he was smoking. They all agreed with me it was likely to be close. They were also right - which I wasn't, at least at first - in saying that while narrow their win would be decisive.
Underwhelming though - the LibDems will get very little momentum from their win.
You're entitled to your opinion. I think this was an impressive win. They did make a number of avoidable mistakes, but this was a much wider gap than I expected.
And the simple fact is as well, a win is a win. Even allowing for all the local factors of this seat, they still have an extra MP. To quote Geoffrey Boycott, it's not how, it's how many.
The risk is that they will do as too many have and draw national lessons from this very local seat. That can be done - I've done it myself - but it needs to be done carefully. So far, that doesn't seem to be happening and too many bandwagons are being jumped on instead.
I accept its significance in terms of the very tight parliamentary arithmetic, but I will be very surprised if it sets any kind of bandwaggon rolling comparable to what we saw post- the EU elections for both the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Indeed I am increasingly confident we have seen peak Brexit Party and peak LibDem vote share in respect of this Parliament. A circa 12% vote share for both at the GE strikes me as probable.
I think this is correct even the latest polling has them not far away-
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
As with the HoC they don’t have the time - unless for some unaccountable reason the Brexit wing of the Tory Party 1) voted for Boris ouster and 2) did not put forward a Brexit candidate in order to allow a Remainer coronation. I’d rate leaving with a deal at higher odds.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
I find it difficult to believe Cummings would make an error that elementary, with something so serious.
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
As with the HoC they don’t have the time - unless for some unaccountable reason the Brexit wing of the Tory Party 1) voted for Boris ouster and 2) did not put forward a Brexit candidate in order to allow a Remainer coronation. I’d rate leaving with a deal at higher odds.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
I find it difficult to believe Cummings would make an error that elementary, with something so serious.
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
Would have to be Jezza - he won’t stand aside.
So it’s a GE after 31/10...
It could still be before 31/10 if VNOC passed in first week of September. The 14 day clock would then begin to tick and during that period the Tory Remainers have to be willing to install a PM who will then ask for an extension. Having done so, the new PM might still be able to call an election for 17th October or 24 th October. Of course, the 31st October ealine would cease to be critical if an extension has been granted.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
I find it difficult to believe Cummings would make an error that elementary, with something so serious.
But, I confess I have not read the FTPA
Evidently.
I will happily confess my ignorance. But do please explain why a megabrain like Cummings would have failed to read the FTPA?
It would be a schoolboy howler of tragic proportions. UNLESS this is just bad reportage by the Telegraph. It has been known.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
Would have to be Jezza - he won’t stand aside.
So it’s a GE after 31/10...
It could still be before 31/10 if VNOC passed in first week of September. The 14 day clock would then begin to tick and during that period the Tory Remainers have to be willing to install a PM who will then ask for an extension. Having done so, the new PM might still be able to call an election for 17th October or 24 th October. Of course, the 31st October ealine would cease to be critical if an extension has been granted.
MPs don't have to "install a PM". That's not how you become PM in this country. You become PM when the Queen asks you to form a government. And that's what happens now, when the PM loses a vote of confidence. The Queen asks someone else to form a government.
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
As with the HoC they don’t have the time - unless for some unaccountable reason the Brexit wing of the Tory Party 1) voted for Boris ouster and 2) did not put forward a Brexit candidate in order to allow a Remainer coronation. I’d rate leaving with a deal at higher odds.
This is simply wrong.
What is your scenario for the current parliamentary Tory party installing a Remainer PM in the time available?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
Her maj’s first port of call ain’t a commie without security clearance.
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
Would have to be Jezza - he won’t stand aside.
So it’s a GE after 31/10...
It could still be before 31/10 if VNOC passed in first week of September. The 14 day clock would then begin to tick and during that period the Tory Remainers have to be willing to install a PM who will then ask for an extension. Having done so, the new PM might still be able to call an election for 17th October or 24 th October. Of course, the 31st October ealine would cease to be critical if an extension has been granted.
MPs don't have to "install a PM". That's not how you become PM in this country. You become PM when the Queen asks you to form a government. And that's what happens now, when the PM loses a vote of confidence. The Queen asks someone else to form a government.
No - but the Queen is only likely to ask someone she has good reason to believe can command a majority in the Commons. Whoever is asked then has to seek an Affirmative Vote of Confidence - though ,of course, a new Government will already have been formed!
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
As with the HoC they don’t have the time - unless for some unaccountable reason the Brexit wing of the Tory Party 1) voted for Boris ouster and 2) did not put forward a Brexit candidate in order to allow a Remainer coronation. I’d rate leaving with a deal at higher odds.
This is simply wrong.
What is your scenario for the current parliamentary Tory party installing a Remainer PM in the time available?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
I cannot see Corbyn commanding the confidence of the House, ever. So who would the Queen turn to next? Presumably some centrist Dad or Keir Starmer or something. Is that how it works?! Who advises her? Can she look outside parliament?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
I find it difficult to believe Cummings would make an error that elementary, with something so serious.
But, I confess I have not read the FTPA
Evidently.
I will happily confess my ignorance. But do please explain why a megabrain like Cummings would have failed to read the FTPA?
It would be a schoolboy howler of tragic proportions. UNLESS this is just bad reportage by the Telegraph. It has been known.
Don't you think you might be buying into Cummings's own spin about himself somewhat?
The headline is probably true unless Tory Remainers are prepared to install another PM - having passed a VNOC in Johnson.
As with the HoC they don’t have the time - unless for some unaccountable reason the Brexit wing of the Tory Party 1) voted for Boris ouster and 2) did not put forward a Brexit candidate in order to allow a Remainer coronation. I’d rate leaving with a deal at higher odds.
This is simply wrong.
What is your scenario for the current parliamentary Tory party installing a Remainer PM in the time available?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
I find it difficult to believe Cummings would make an error that elementary, with something so serious.
But, I confess I have not read the FTPA
Evidently.
I will happily confess my ignorance. But do please explain why a megabrain like Cummings would have failed to read the FTPA?
It would be a schoolboy howler of tragic proportions. UNLESS this is just bad reportage by the Telegraph. It has been known.
Don't you think you might be buying into Cummings's own spin about himself somewhat?
Perhaps. But I read his Incredibly Long Blogpost about the Referendum And All That. It was one of the most insightful political essays I have ever encountered. Evidence of a major intellect. Flexible, sharp, curious, forensic.
People say he is very very smart, and I am willing to believe them. And he did come up with "Take Back Control". Which was pure genius.
It's not an impossible demand. We should have quite clearly said all along that the backstop was an impossible demand and we would never agree to it.
That's a valid view, but it's too late now to negotiate on that basis. It's impossible in the sense that the current position is that the EU thought they had agreed it with Britain and have said very clearly that it's not - indeed the whole WA is not - up for further discussion. To say "I will only talk to you if you agree in advance to do something you've ruled out" is a demand which can only be intended to get the answer "no". He might just as well have said "I don't want to negotiate with you at all".
No it is not impossible, because the EU thought they had that agreement and now they know they don't.
So they are forced to choose, do they want an agreement or not? If they do and we are serious then they must compromise - just because they're claiming they don't want to compromise doesn't mean they never will.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
Can we just have justin124 and HYUFD arguing with each other over things that they each desperately want to be true?
I know they each want for everything to be pointing to a Labour recovery and Lib Dem collapse / Tory recovery and BXP bounce, but it does get a bit tiresome seeing everything somehow pointing to their desired result and hope continually portrayed as certainty.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
I get the feeling everyone on PB is now reading the FTPA?
I'll watch some Anthony Bourdain til yer done.
The FTPA doesn't change how the prime minister is appointed. That's just the same as it always has been. The Queen asks you.
But it does make it clear that the vote of confidence in the alternative government is in a government that already exists, not a hypothetical future one. And ipso facto the alternative prime minister is already prime minister by the time of that vote.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
Boris needs to get Brexit voters who would otherwise never vote Tory on side. I suspect you are right that he wants to paint Parliament as the baddies to give him any chance of the plan working...
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
If it really was too late to avoid No Deal, why would Cummings want to advertise that now? Surely waiting until September would make more sense, wouldn't it?
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
The Commons gets 14 days to indicate it will back someone and if it appears someone can get the backing of the Commons then Boris would be obliged, like Brown was in 2010, to resign.
If it appears that nobody can command the Commons then Boris will remain in situ like Callaghan until the election.
If it really was too late to avoid No Deal, why would Cummings want to advertise that now? Surely waiting until September would make more sense, wouldn't it?
If it really was too late to avoid No Deal, why would Cummings want to advertise that now? Surely waiting until September would make more sense, wouldn't it?
Are you suggesting that the Borisgraph would print a load of nonsense?
If it really was too late to avoid No Deal, why would Cummings want to advertise that now? Surely waiting until September would make more sense, wouldn't it?
All very strange. Agreed.
FWIW Twitter is similarly and completely confused. Various smart, politically savvy people, that I trust and respect, have wildly different opinions.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
You miss what’s happening completely - the Boris machine is doing its thing- whatever the EU does or doesn’t do - there is a way forward which will be followed. Tear up your May playbook- it’s now a different game.
It has been madness to rely on the back room of the EU machine - so they aren’t.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
Yes it is up to the Queen. And if the Commons was indicating it would back Cameron but Boris refused to resign I expect the Queen would sack him.
However that's not what you're claiming. You're claiming he gets replaced prior to the Commons indicating it backs someone else, that's not true. Until somebody else has secured the backing of the Commons the PM remains in place. If 14 days elapses and nobody has secured it then the election is called.
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
"Boris Johnson could lose majority overnight as Tory MP considers defecting to Lib Dems ‘At the moment, I’m increasingly feeling politically homeless,’ Phillip Lee says"
While I'm not without sympathy for what he's saying, if he wants to defect, defect. If he doesn't, don't. Wailing in the media about it just looks weak and reinforces the impression he's flying a kite to try and put pressure on/blackmail (delete according to taste) the leadership.
Defections should be entirely secret until the moment they are announced. I don't he'll jump.
Whereas the most likely Conservative to jump is barely ever talked about.
John Redwood?
Somehow I don't think the Lib Dems are his natural home.
I believe he was suggesting the Brexit Party are
even he has got more sense than to think the Brexit party is a sensible place to defect to, surely?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Can we just have justin124 and HYUFD arguing with each other over things that they each desperately want to be true?
I know they each want for everything to be pointing to a Labour recovery and Lib Dem collapse / Tory recovery and BXP bounce, but it does get a bit tiresome seeing everything somehow pointing to their desired result and hope continually portrayed as certainty.
It's times like this you appreciate how Labour and Conservative are two cheeks of the same arse and they have far more which unites them than divides them.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
If the EU wants to avoid No Deal then very likely.
Of course people can have different opinions about what the Queen would do.
But obviously Cummings is quite wrong in what he's said, because he certainly can't rule out the Queen asking someone else to form a government. If there is a vote of no confidence in Johnson, it may be immediately obvious that the Commons wants to avoid No Deal through an alternative government being appointed. Even if that's not obvious, Corbyn may well be asked to form a government.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
If the EU wants to avoid No Deal then very likely.
Even if they did, why would they bother given there is little evidence that Parliament would endorse any revised agreement?
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
Yes it is up to the Queen. And if the Commons was indicating it would back Cameron but Boris refused to resign I expect the Queen would sack him.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
Brown did not have to resign when he did. He could have drawn up a Queen's Speech presented it to Parliament and only resigned when defeated on that. Effectively he could have delayed the Coalition by circa two weeks. Personally, I think he should have done that and sought to sow divisions within the LibDem ranks by offering a programme that many LDs would have preferred to Cameron's offer - ie he should have gone over Clegg's head.'Johnson would be in a different position ,though, if he has lost a VNOC. Discussions would take place between the Cabinet Secretary, Palace Officials and party leaders. If it then became apparent that someone else was likely to command a majority , he would be expected to resign.Were he to refuse - not that he would - he could be dismissed - a bit like Gough Whitlam having his Commission withdrawn by the Governor General in November 1975. In reality, it would not come to that.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
Yes it is up to the Queen. And if the Commons was indicating it would back Cameron but Boris refused to resign I expect the Queen would sack him.
Cameron? God help us!
Sorry, typo mixing up thoughts about last time a PM hung around [Brown until Commons did indicate it backed Cameron] and now. I meant Corbyn.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
What’s the referendum question? And a referendum followed by a GE? That makes him PM for at least six months.
No matter if No Deal can actually be prevented or not (God only knows), Paul Masterton has consistently (and correctly) identified that MPs who favour remain were always playing with fire by not agreeing the deal.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
What’s the referendum question? And a referendum followed by a GE? That makes him PM for at least six months.
Dunno. I'm busking here. Doing improv. Like the rest of us. Strange days.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
I think there would be no question that that would circumstances in which the Queen would be wholly justified in using her prerogative to dismiss the PM.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
If the EU wants to avoid No Deal then very likely.
'Cos making Boris Johnson look very clever will sort out the big, festering, Eurosceptic lump* forever and a day.
*that's the UK (Wangland regions) for avoidance of doubt.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
Yes it is up to the Queen. And if the Commons was indicating it would back Cameron but Boris refused to resign I expect the Queen would sack him.
However that's not what you're claiming. You're claiming he gets replaced prior to the Commons indicating it backs someone else, that's not true. Until somebody else has secured the backing of the Commons the PM remains in place. If 14 days elapses and nobody has secured it then the election is called.
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
The Commons indicating it would back Cameron to become PM if Boris refused to resign would truly be something different,
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes. The problem is whether in the event of significant economic dislocation, that coalition will remain solid or will it turn round and blame the Conservatives for making a mess of a No Deal exit (which would be unfair to a point but politics isn't fair as we know).
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now the party of the inner cities, the Tories are the party of the rural areas and Labour and the Tories fight it out in the suburbs and the Tories and LDs fight it out in market and spa towns.
Boris will be certainly damned if he doesn't deliver Brexit on 31st October which would be a gift to Farage and Corbyn but provided he does commit to deliver it he will be re elected as it will almost certainly require an autumn general election for Boris to get a mandate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
I cannot see Corbyn commanding the confidence of the House, ever. So who would the Queen turn to next? Presumably some centrist Dad or Keir Starmer or something. Is that how it works?! Who advises her? Can she look outside parliament?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
Comments
I suggest you check out the John Curtice interview on the BBC News Channel yesterday morning.
So it's really simply really - Scots are bigots when they vote in Holyrood but quite sophisticated non-bigots when it comes to westminster because they don't vote the same way - also turnouts lower for Holyrood (which has more powers over them). So clearly sophisticated.
It's doesn't matter anyway because young Scots vote nationalist - Yay for an Independent Scotland.
As JohnO pointed out earlier, timmo is a Conservative activist who deliberately talked up the LD prospects in B&R to a ridiculous extent in order presumably to claim the actual result as a "disaster" for the LDs.
I'm also told Surrey County Council employs more people than the EU - well, if that's the standard of knowledge of how local Government functions, we've got a long way to go.
Air NZ, which is a marvellous airline and I can endorse Robert's comments, flies only to LA in North America. They fly to Vancouver and San Francisco from NZ and you can connect onto Star Alliance flights (Air Canada and Virgin respectively) back to the UK.
The flight from London to LA which then continues to Auckland is NZ001 - it's a two hour wait in a transit lounge which is so old I found a Nixon/Agnew sticker under one of the seats.
Going the other way, it's either Cathay to HK, JAL to Tokyo or Singapore Airlines to Singapore all of which link to Air NZ. Now we get to the key point. I understand Boris's commitment but he must recognise the chances of getting No Deal through the Commons are very low, he has himself proclaimed the WA "dead" and the EU won't move on the backstop so there won't be further negotiations.
Your view, if I understand you correctly, is Boris goes to the country on the line of promising Brexit on 31/10 and simply wants to re-arrange parliament not to endorse it but rather to stop it not happening by changing the balance to a majority of Conservative MPs supportive of his line.
What of those who want to leave the EU but don't support a No Deal crash out, those who would either prefer to exit via the WA (with its built in transition) or those who would seek a further extension ? How can any of these support a Johnson-led Conservative Party whose primary line seems to be exiting without a Deal since there won't be time to do another WA?
So it’s a GE after 31/10...
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
But, I confess I have not read the FTPA
Sounds like a great idea and deals with the capacity issue. Is there any reason this shouldn't be adopted instead?
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
It would be a schoolboy howler of tragic proportions. UNLESS this is just bad reportage by the Telegraph. It has been known.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
I cannot see Corbyn commanding the confidence of the House, ever. So who would the Queen turn to next? Presumably some centrist Dad or Keir Starmer or something. Is that how it works?! Who advises her? Can she look outside parliament?
I get where this is going. I am ready to serve.
People say he is very very smart, and I am willing to believe them. And he did come up with "Take Back Control". Which was pure genius.
So they are forced to choose, do they want an agreement or not? If they do and we are serious then they must compromise - just because they're claiming they don't want to compromise doesn't mean they never will.
I'll watch some Anthony Bourdain til yer done.
I know they each want for everything to be pointing to a Labour recovery and Lib Dem collapse / Tory recovery and BXP bounce, but it does get a bit tiresome seeing everything somehow pointing to their desired result and hope continually portrayed as certainty.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
But it does make it clear that the vote of confidence in the alternative government is in a government that already exists, not a hypothetical future one. And ipso facto the alternative prime minister is already prime minister by the time of that vote.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
The Commons gets 14 days to indicate it will back someone and if it appears someone can get the backing of the Commons then Boris would be obliged, like Brown was in 2010, to resign.
If it appears that nobody can command the Commons then Boris will remain in situ like Callaghan until the election.
FWIW Twitter is similarly and completely confused. Various smart, politically savvy people, that I trust and respect, have wildly different opinions.
It has been madness to rely on the back room of the EU machine - so they aren’t.
Jesus wept!
However that's not what you're claiming. You're claiming he gets replaced prior to the Commons indicating it backs someone else, that's not true. Until somebody else has secured the backing of the Commons the PM remains in place. If 14 days elapses and nobody has secured it then the election is called.
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
But obviously Cummings is quite wrong in what he's said, because he certainly can't rule out the Queen asking someone else to form a government. If there is a vote of no confidence in Johnson, it may be immediately obvious that the Commons wants to avoid No Deal through an alternative government being appointed. Even if that's not obvious, Corbyn may well be asked to form a government.
It's nonsense to say any of that is impossible.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1156851973263712258
*that's the UK (Wangland regions) for avoidance of doubt.
https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.