politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere
Comments
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So you voted Remain, are against No Deal, but feel obliged to support it because of a misguided belief that this is the will of the people.HYUFD said:
We voted to Leave, there was no part of the question about Leaving only with a DealSandyRentool said:
We voted for Leave with the expectation that our political class would negotiate a sensible deal. We did not vote for No Deal. If you do not personally advocate No Deal there is no obligation to support it.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
Campaign for what you believe in.
It isn't, so don't.0 -
That was a positively Maelorficient post.TheScreamingEagles said:I enjoy taking the girlfriend for a weekend up the Wrexham.
And on that note, good night.0 -
General or Central?TheScreamingEagles said:I enjoy taking the girlfriend for a weekend up the Wrexham.
And on that note, good night.0 -
Which of those can I eat for breakfast? Also you know full well leaving will negate all our hard won special terms and rejoining will involve euro, schengen etc etc but if your happy to let them, the really rich people, to continue to hide their wealth which otherwise they were going to have to declare and pay taxes on so be it.HYUFD said:
Leavers voted for more sovereignty, border control and the right to do our own trade deals but even if you disagree with all of that and want to campaign to rejoin the EU that campaign must only begin after we have left the EU as the first vote won a majority to donichomar said:
Why should I give a shit what Tory’s think?and as for TBP voters even less if you can’t see that you are being manipulated into supporting policies that makes the likes of Tice, Mogg and co loads of money at the expense of the less well off that’s your problem. I’ve still not seen a single argument that explains how most people gain anything from this rich elite driven project.HYUFD said:
No, it was a democratic vote which clearly won.nichomar said:
Advisory referendum, no legal obligation to fulfill it it especially when it is a stupid decision.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
If the Brexit vote is not delivered I suspect many Tories and Brexit Party voters would refuse to accept a Corbyn, Corbyn/LD/SNP government and mass protests and civil disobedience would begin straight away.
I certainly would be tempted0 -
It was to Remain as we were, if in a few years time there was an application to join the Euro I may have switched to backing Leave but nonetheless if the vote was to join the Euro I would have reluctantly accepted it but campaigned to bring back sterling once we had joined the Euroalex. said:HYUFD said:
We voted to Leave, there was no part of the question about Leaving only with a DealSandyRentool said:
We voted for Leave with the expectation that our political class would negotiate a sensible deal. We did not vote for No Deal. If you do not personally advocate No Deal there is no obligation to support it.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
Campaign for what you believe in.
You voted to remain. There was no part of the question about remaining without joining the Euro.0 -
How do you know what Leavers voted for? None of those things were on the ballot paper.HYUFD said:
Leavers voted for more sovereignty, border control and the right to do our own trade deals but even if you disagree with all of that and want to campaign to rejoin the EU that campaign must only begin after we have left the EU as the first vote won a majority to donichomar said:
Why should I give a shit what Tory’s think?and as for TBP voters even less if you can’t see that you are being manipulated into supporting policies that makes the likes of Tice, Mogg and co loads of money at the expense of the less well off that’s your problem. I’ve still not seen a single argument that explains how most people gain anything from this rich elite driven project.HYUFD said:
No, it was a democratic vote which clearly won.nichomar said:
Advisory referendum, no legal obligation to fulfill it it especially when it is a stupid decision.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
If the Brexit vote is not delivered I suspect many Tories and Brexit Party voters would refuse to accept a Corbyn, Corbyn/LD/SNP government and mass protests and civil disobedience would begin straight away.
I certainly would be tempted
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That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.0 -
We have a Tory Party tearing lumps out of itself. That will do for now.Philip_Thompson said:
You got rid of Cameron and replaced him with May who was far worse, but now we have Boris who is quite like Cameron so not sure what that achieved?SandyRentool said:
I voted to escape an undemocratic capitalist hegemony. And to give Cameron a kick in the nads.Pulpstar said:Forget @HYUFD It's the Lexit/Non Tory voters I can't figure out. What the hell did they think they were voting for* ?!
*I know Rochdale_Pioneers has repented so I'm leaving him out of this, but @SandyRentool for instance ?0 -
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?0 -
The only thing on the ballot paper was to Leave the EU which must be deliveredalex. said:
How do you know what Leavers voted for? None of those things were on the ballot paper.HYUFD said:
Leavers voted for more sovereignty, border control and the right to do our own trade deals but even if you disagree with all of that and want to campaign to rejoin the EU that campaign must only begin after we have left the EU as the first vote won a majority to donichomar said:
Why should I give a shit what Tory’s think?and as for TBP voters even less if you can’t see that you are being manipulated into supporting policies that makes the likes of Tice, Mogg and co loads of money at the expense of the less well off that’s your problem. I’ve still not seen a single argument that explains how most people gain anything from this rich elite driven project.HYUFD said:
No, it was a democratic vote which clearly won.nichomar said:
Advisory referendum, no legal obligation to fulfill it it especially when it is a stupid decision.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
If the Brexit vote is not delivered I suspect many Tories and Brexit Party voters would refuse to accept a Corbyn, Corbyn/LD/SNP government and mass protests and civil disobedience would begin straight away.
I certainly would be tempted0 -
There are even some trains that avoid Swansea:SandyRentool said:
Sky reported earlier that you can buy sex for £5 in Swansea.ydoethur said:
Somebody once told me that it was depressing to spend time in Swansea.rpjs said:
Merthyr's not that bad. Much nicer than Abercynon.Mexicanpete said:
It looks like a de-militarised zone, but all year round not just in November.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What is wrong with Merthyr Tydfil in November ?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
I suggested that a rapid cure was to spend a day in Neath.
But you would need to go to Swansea first, so probably not such a good deal.
Saturdays: 1243 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1240 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1205 Cardiff Central - Milford Haven0 -
The LDs won by 4.5% over the Tories and more people voted for Leave parties than Remain partiesThe_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.0 -
Just to confirm, are you saying opinion polls define the will of the people that we must all follow?HYUFD said:
Latest Opinium poll last weekend, Leave on 31st October even with No Deal 45%, revoke Article 50 and Remain 28%, extend again 13%noneoftheabove said:
Who gets to decide the will of the people? If its you and a bunch of your Eton/Oxbridge elite mates that truly is a fascist use of the phrase.HYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
.justin124 said:Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
If it is opinion polling, the will of the people is remain ahead of leave, so lets remain.
If it is elections, the only mandate for no deal is the 1.8% who voted UKIP at the last general election. 98.2% voted for at least a deal, so lets leave with a deal.
There is no mandate or majority for no deal which is why you are flirting with a coup to deliver it and starting to use fascist language.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/0 -
Yet another poster drawing all the wrong conclusions from this seat.The_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.0 -
No, it was just “to remain in the EU”. In fact the leave campaign specifically argued that remain was NOT a “status quo” optionHYUFD said:
It was to Remain as we were, if in a few years time there was an application to join the Euro I may have switched to backing Leave but nonetheless if the vote was to join the Euro I would have reluctantly accepted it but campaigned to bring back sterling once we had joined the Euroalex. said:HYUFD said:
We voted to Leave, there was no part of the question about Leaving only with a DealSandyRentool said:
We voted for Leave with the expectation that our political class would negotiate a sensible deal. We did not vote for No Deal. If you do not personally advocate No Deal there is no obligation to support it.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
Campaign for what you believe in.
You voted to remain. There was no part of the question about remaining without joining the Euro.
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Sounds an inordinately long time to spend in such a place....TheScreamingEagles said:I enjoy taking the girlfriend for a weekend up the Wrexham....
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Isn't Swansea on a sort of side-branch of the GWML? So trains have to reverse out?Sunil_Prasannan said:
There are even some trains that avoid Swansea:SandyRentool said:
Sky reported earlier that you can buy sex for £5 in Swansea.ydoethur said:
Somebody once told me that it was depressing to spend time in Swansea.rpjs said:
Merthyr's not that bad. Much nicer than Abercynon.Mexicanpete said:
It looks like a de-militarised zone, but all year round not just in November.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What is wrong with Merthyr Tydfil in November ?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
I suggested that a rapid cure was to spend a day in Neath.
But you would need to go to Swansea first, so probably not such a good deal.
Saturdays: 1243 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1240 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1205 Cardiff Central - Milford Haven0 -
If the government cannot command a majority in Parliament, of course they can overthrow it.HYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?0 -
At the cost of breaking up the UK?HYUFD said:
The only thing on the ballot paper was to Leave the EU which must be deliveredalex. said:
How do you know what Leavers voted for? None of those things were on the ballot paper.HYUFD said:
Leavers voted for more sovereignty, border control and the right to do our own trade deals but even if you disagree with all of that and want to campaign to rejoin the EU that campaign must only begin after we have left the EU as the first vote won a majority to donichomar said:
Why should I give a shit what Tory’s think?and as for TBP voters even less if you can’t see that you are being manipulated into supporting policies that makes the likes of Tice, Mogg and co loads of money at the expense of the less well off that’s your problem. I’ve still not seen a single argument that explains how most people gain anything from this rich elite driven project.HYUFD said:
No, it was a democratic vote which clearly won.nichomar said:
Advisory referendum, no legal obligation to fulfill it it especially when it is a stupid decision.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
If the Brexit vote is not delivered I suspect many Tories and Brexit Party voters would refuse to accept a Corbyn, Corbyn/LD/SNP government and mass protests and civil disobedience would begin straight away.
I certainly would be tempted0 -
I require the avoiding line. And the Fishguard and Pembroke branches.Sunil_Prasannan said:
There are even some trains that avoid Swansea:SandyRentool said:
Sky reported earlier that you can buy sex for £5 in Swansea.ydoethur said:
Somebody once told me that it was depressing to spend time in Swansea.rpjs said:
Merthyr's not that bad. Much nicer than Abercynon.Mexicanpete said:
It looks like a de-militarised zone, but all year round not just in November.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What is wrong with Merthyr Tydfil in November ?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
I suggested that a rapid cure was to spend a day in Neath.
But you would need to go to Swansea first, so probably not such a good deal.
Saturdays: 1243 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1240 Fishguard Harbour - Cardiff Central
Sundays: 1205 Cardiff Central - Milford Haven
I've been to Milford Haven. I saw the Haven, but I didn't see much Milf.1 -
As a good Muslim boy I don't drink wine but is blue wine an abomination up there with putting pineapple on pizzas?
French authorities have launched a prosecution against the makers of Corsican blue wine, Imajyne.
“There is no way that a wine can be naturally blue,” the French general department for competition, consumers and the repression of frauds said in a statement.
The news follows research by chemists at the University of Toulouse who revealed that the wine contained E133, also known as Brilliant Blue FCF, a synthetic dye also used in the production of curacao.
The use of dye in wine production is strictly prohibited in France.
https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/25678/French_authorities_move_against_makers_of_blue_wine.html0 -
That wont wo his polling numbers any good...the great british British public love nothing more than seeing boris falling over in a massive puddle or something equally hilarious.SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
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In an ideal world no and no guarantee it would do but if the only thing keeping most Scots and residents of Northern Ireland in the UK is being part of the EU then so be itanothernick said:
At the cost of breaking up the UK?HYUFD said:
The only thing on the ballot paper was to Leave the EU which must be deliveredalex. said:
How do you know what Leavers voted for? None of those things were on the ballot paper.HYUFD said:
Leavers voted for more sovereignty, border control and the right to do our own trade deals but even if you disagree with all of that and want to campaign to rejoin the EU that campaign must only begin after we have left the EU as the first vote won a majority to donichomar said:
Why should I give a shit what Tory’s think?and as for TBP voters even less if you can’t see that you are being manipulated into supporting policies that makes the likes of Tice, Mogg and co loads of money at the expense of the less well off that’s your problem. I’ve still not seen a single argument that explains how most people gain anything from this rich elite driven project.HYUFD said:
No, it was a democratic vote which clearly won.nichomar said:
Advisory referendum, no legal obligation to fulfill it it especially when it is a stupid decision.HYUFD said:
As I respect democracy, we voted Leave and must Leave.SandyRentool said:
But why?HYUFD said:
I back Brexit Deal or No DealSandyRentool said:
So why do you back No Deal?HYUFD said:
I AM NOT A DIEHARD REMAINER, I backed the Withdrawal Agreement and back No Deal over No Brexit.TOPPING said:Goodnight all.
@HYUFD think carefully about which party is best for you. As a diehard remainer perhaps it is the LibDems.
I would rather spend a fortnight in Merthyr Tydfil in November than deliver Focus leaflets
Otherwise if Corbyn wins the next general election if Brexit is not delivered despite winning the referendum why should Tories accept a Corbyn government either?
If the Brexit vote is not delivered I suspect many Tories and Brexit Party voters would refuse to accept a Corbyn, Corbyn/LD/SNP government and mass protests and civil disobedience would begin straight away.
I certainly would be tempted0 -
Leave won a majority, if a Corbyn government also won a majority of course they could not.Nigelb said:
If the government cannot command a majority in Parliament, of course they can overthrow it.HYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?
However if a referendum majority is not respected why should a Corbyn government majority be either?0 -
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?0 -
Far worse. At least pineapple has some nutritional benefits.TheScreamingEagles said:As a good Muslim boy I don't drink wine but is blue wine an abomination up there with putting pineapple on pizzas?
French authorities have launched a prosecution against the makers of Corsican blue wine, Imajyne.
“There is no way that a wine can be naturally blue,” the French general department for competition, consumers and the repression of frauds said in a statement.
The news follows research by chemists at the University of Toulouse who revealed that the wine contained E133, also known as Brilliant Blue FCF, a synthetic dye also used in the production of curacao.
The use of dye in wine production is strictly prohibited in France.
https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/25678/French_authorities_move_against_makers_of_blue_wine.html0 -
The LD still won!HYUFD said:
The LDs won by 4.5% over the Tories and more people voted for Leave parties than Remain partiesThe_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion. The Tories have one less MP and in that one less Brexiteer in Parliament! The Tories were defeated in a seat they held with an 8,000 majority which equates to about 20%. From this one can conclude the Tories do have a problem and Boris cannot fix it... 0 -
Majority votes certainly do, as with the vote to Leave the EUnoneoftheabove said:
Just to confirm, are you saying opinion polls define the will of the people that we must all follow?HYUFD said:
Latest Opinium poll last weekend, Leave on 31st October even with No Deal 45%, revoke Article 50 and Remain 28%, extend again 13%noneoftheabove said:
Who gets to decide the will of the people? If its you and a bunch of your Eton/Oxbridge elite mates that truly is a fascist use of the phrase.HYUFD said:
By refusing an extension and committing to prorogue Parliament if necessary at the end of October to deliver Brexit and respect the will of the peopleeek said:
So how does Boris get to the position where we leave on October 31st.HYUFD said:
The only suicidal action Boris could take would be to extend again and let the Brexit Party overtake the Tories as the main party of the rightChris said:
Don't get me wrong. Given the position he's put himself in, it's quite possible that every option Johnson has will be suicidal.HYUFD said:
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
.justin124 said:Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
I note that even the Freeport announcement falls apart when it's pointed out it offers nothing we can't do today were it not for lack of previous Government disinterest.
If it is opinion polling, the will of the people is remain ahead of leave, so lets remain.
If it is elections, the only mandate for no deal is the 1.8% who voted UKIP at the last general election. 98.2% voted for at least a deal, so lets leave with a deal.
There is no mandate or majority for no deal which is why you are flirting with a coup to deliver it and starting to use fascist language.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/0 -
Not in this seat you can't.The_Taxman said:
The LD still won!HYUFD said:
The LDs won by 4.5% over the Tories and more people voted for Leave parties than Remain partiesThe_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion. The Tories have one less MP and in that one less Brexiteer in Parliament! The Tories were defeated in a seat they held with an 8,000 majority which equates to about 20%. From this one can conclude the Tories do have a problem and Boris cannot fix it...
That said, it was a pretty emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats.0 -
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Tory majorities the Tories would still have lost Brecon to the LDs but won a majority with gains from Labour, even last night there was a Labour to Tory swing in BreconThe_Taxman said:
The LD still won!HYUFD said:
The LDs won by 4.5% over the Tories and more people voted for Leave parties than Remain partiesThe_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion. The Tories have one less MP and in that one less Brexiteer in Parliament! The Tories were defeated in a seat they held with an 8,000 majority which equates to about 20%. From this one can conclude the Tories do have a problem and Boris cannot fix it...0 -
Which they won't if the government has a majority as Leave won a majoritySandyRentool said:
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?0 -
Well you are entitled to your opinion but IMHO national suicide was not on the ballot paper in 2016 and the reaction of most people when faced with a potential suicide case is to do everything possible to prevent it.HYUFD said:
In an ideal world no and no guarantee it would do but if the only thing keeping most Scots and residents of Northern Ireland in the UK is being part of the EU then so be it0 -
Like we can meaningfully translate yesterday's result to what will happen in Keighley at the next GE.HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov and Mori polls giving Tory majorities the Tories would still have lost Brecon to the LDs but won a majority with gain a from Labour, even last night there was a Labour to Tory swing in BreconThe_Taxman said:
The LD still won!HYUFD said:
The LDs won by 4.5% over the Tories and more people voted for Leave parties than Remain partiesThe_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion. The Tories have one less MP and in that one less Brexiteer in Parliament! The Tories were defeated in a seat they held with an 8,000 majority which equates to about 20%. From this one can conclude the Tories do have a problem and Boris cannot fix it...0 -
I notice the Brexit supporting media in panic mode! The Daily Express for instance is now doing a not so subtle opinion poll to enthuse TBP to change allegiance back to voting Tory and for Boris! I also note that in order to move media attention from the stinging defeat in B & R. Boris Johnson is now doing similar activity in Whaley Bridge compared to Gordon Brown and the 2007 floods. Talk about shallow and utterly pathetic use of problems Johnson or Brown would never bother turning up for if a GE was not forthcoming...ydoethur said:
Yet another poster drawing all the wrong conclusions from this seat.The_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.0 -
It is a period of civil war. Remainer spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Tory Empire.The_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.
During the battle, Remainer spies managed to steal secret plans to the Tories' ultimate weapon, the BORIS BOUNCER, an armored space station with enough power to knock up an entire parliamentary seat.
Pursued by the Tories' sinister agents, Princess Jo races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her party and restore freedom to the Continent....0 -
Can I just say that if it wasn’t for a truly brilliant and world class innings by Smith the test match would be all over. As it is England are in a very, very strong position. If they bat until mid afternoon they will be over120 runs ahead which, on that pitch, really should be enough for a decisive position.0
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But you agree that the opposition have the right to test whether that majority still exists by calling a VONC.HYUFD said:
Which they won't if the government has a majority as Leave won a majoritySandyRentool said:
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?
Just like we could test whether there is a public majority for No Deal.0 -
Looking at something that is about to collapse?SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
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Yes. Because they are also pig-ignorant of the nuances of Welsh politics.The_Taxman said:
I notice the Brexit supporting media in panic mode! The Daily Express for instance is now doing a not so subtle opinion poll to enthuse TBP to change allegiance back to voting Tory and for Boris! I also note that in order to move media attention from the stinging defeat in B & R. Boris Johnson is now doing similar activity in Whaley Bridge compared to Gordon Brown and the 2007 floods. Talk about shallow and utterly pathetic use of problems Johnson or Brown would never bother turning up for if a GE was not forthcoming...ydoethur said:
Yet another poster drawing all the wrong conclusions from this seat.The_Taxman said:That By-election result was great! The "Remain Alliance" trounced the Boris Brexiteers.
If Boris cannot win in a seat that voted 52/48 then maybe we should be holding a Final Say vote to make sure we are not wrecking peoples lives on out of date opinion.
It will be quite funny to watch but it is at best a self-fulfilling narrative.0 -
test-1
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When they're all out for 283 tomorrow and Smith has scored 124 out of Australia's 200-9, we will know who to blame!DavidL said:Can I just say that if it wasn’t for a truly brilliant and world class innings by Smith the test match would be all over. As it is England are in a very, very strong position. If they bat until mid afternoon they will be over120 runs ahead which, on that pitch, really should be enough for a decisive position.
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To have a VONC the Government would to have been appointed to respect the general election result in the first place.SandyRentool said:
But you agree that the opposition have the right to test whether that majority still exists by calling a VONC.HYUFD said:
Which they won't if the government has a majority as Leave won a majoritySandyRentool said:
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?
Just like we could test whether there is a public majority for No Deal.
Just like the majority to Leave would have to have been respected before a referendum could be held to rejoin the EU rather than persist with No Deal0 -
It could be used as a metaphor for his Government...anothernick said:
Looking at a dam about to collapse?SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
0 -
Thankfully the dam doesn't appear to be as fragile as Bozo's parliamentary majority.anothernick said:
Looking at a dam about to collapse?SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
0 -
Yes, we’re doomed now.ydoethur said:
When they're all out for 283 tomorrow and Smith has scored 124 out of Australia's 200-9, we will know who to blame!DavidL said:Can I just say that if it wasn’t for a truly brilliant and world class innings by Smith the test match would be all over. As it is England are in a very, very strong position. If they bat until mid afternoon they will be over120 runs ahead which, on that pitch, really should be enough for a decisive position.
0 -
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"Dodgy but Stable"The_Taxman said:
It could be used as a metaphor for his Government...anothernick said:
Looking at a dam about to collapse?SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
It's not Strong 'n Stable, but it'll do.0 -
Broken sleazy LibDems on the slide!Scott_P said:0 -
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On Topic What dire polling?
Boris UnBounce
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 30% (+3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (-3)
BREX: 15% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
via
@ComRes
, 26 - 28 Jul
Chgs. w/ 25 Jul0 -
We did not vote for No Deal. No Deal does not respect the result. It exploits the result for the benefit of the hard right.HYUFD said:
To have a VONC the Government would to have been appointed to respect the general election result in the first place.SandyRentool said:
But you agree that the opposition have the right to test whether that majority still exists by calling a VONC.HYUFD said:
Which they won't if the government has a majority as Leave won a majoritySandyRentool said:
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?
Just like we could test whether there is a public majority for No Deal.
Just like the majority to Leave would have to have been respected before a referendum could be held to rejoin the EU rather than persist with No Deal0 -
I am puzzled by the Labour surge! I thought they have had a lousy few months. Maybe Boris repels people back to supporting Labour in ways TM did not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Broken sleazy LibDems on the slide!Scott_P said:0 -
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The Tory to Lab swings must be huge in some parts of the country to make sense of that poll.0
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Even on that poll Tories still up 1% but Comres had Labour 8% in front of the LDs in the European Parliament elections too and the LDs ended up 7% ahead of Labourbigjohnowls said:On Topic What poor performance?
Boris UnBounce
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 30% (+3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (-3)
BREX: 15% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
via
@ComRes
, 26 - 28 Jul
Chgs. w/ 25 Jul0 -
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1157232208781938688anothernick said:
Looking at something that is about to collapse?SandyRentool said:Bozo looking vaguely sensible on Sky News at Whaley Bridge.
0 -
I assume they said less?Chris said:
Reminds me of the Victoria Wood sketch about a market researcher asking someone whether in the event of a nuclear holocaust they would be likely to buy more or less Hellmann's mayonnaise.solarflare said:
An interesting set of scenarios/polls but what people think this side of those things happening is not necessarily the same thing as what people will end up thinking the other side of some of those things happening. A sort of Heisenberg uncertainty principle of polling.HYUFD said:
Comres today, if Boris delivers Brexit with No Deal the Tories have a 7% lead over Labour, if Boris extends again beyond October 31st the Tories collapse to 3rd behind the Brexit Party and Labour.Recidivist said:
Here's an experience I am sure many of us have had. You join a project half way through. It looks fairly straight forward and it is clear enough what needs to be done. But the people on the project have become obsessed by some issue that while not totally unimportant clearly isn't the major thing that needs to be sorted out. Without knowing the background you are mystified by why it dominates discussion. But nothing you can say will shift the entrenched views of the team members who have been working on it.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
That's how the Tory Party looks from the outside.
What the hell is so important about the 30th of October? And by Jove's gardener, what on earth makes you think Johnson is the answer?
https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=200 -
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I’d be as worried about Warner. Can’t really see him failing twice. Class player. But 120 will be a lot in a low scoring test.ydoethur said:
When they're all out for 283 tomorrow and Smith has scored 124 out of Australia's 200-9, we will know who to blame!DavidL said:Can I just say that if it wasn’t for a truly brilliant and world class innings by Smith the test match would be all over. As it is England are in a very, very strong position. If they bat until mid afternoon they will be over120 runs ahead which, on that pitch, really should be enough for a decisive position.
0 -
We voted to Leave the EU. No ifs, no buts to LeaveSandyRentool said:
We did not vote for No Deal. No Deal does not respect the result. It exploits the result for the benefit of the hard right.HYUFD said:
To have a VONC the Government would to have been appointed to respect the general election result in the first place.SandyRentool said:
But you agree that the opposition have the right to test whether that majority still exists by calling a VONC.HYUFD said:
Which they won't if the government has a majority as Leave won a majoritySandyRentool said:
Of course they can overthrow. They just need to win a VONCHYUFD said:
They can oppose they cannot overthrow as it won a general election mandate until the next general electionalex. said:HYUFD said:
Yes, just as they are obliged to accept a democratically elected government they were not old enough to vote foralex. said:One more thing. Do you believe that somebody aged under 18 in 2016 is obliged to accept the “result” of the referendum?
So they are not allowed to use democratic means to oppose the decisions made by that Government? Why do we have such a thing in our constitution as “the official opposition” if they are not allowed to oppose?
Just like we could test whether there is a public majority for No Deal.
Just like the majority to Leave would have to have been respected before a referendum could be held to rejoin the EU rather than persist with No Deal-1 -
If ~30% turns out to be the ceiling, and not the floor, for the Britain Trump led Tory Party will his election be a bigger calamity than Labour electing Corbyn? I think so.Scott_P said:0 -
Polling companies havent got a scoobie doo if the range is +10 to -1.0
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I wouldn't draw many conclusions from one poll, or indeed one by-election. But I think that at present voting is being driven most by two questions: "Are you for or against Brexit?" and "Do you like Boris Johnson?" The effect is:The_Taxman said:
I am puzzled by the Labour surge! I thought they have had a lousy few months. Maybe Boris repels people back to supporting Labour in ways TM did not?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Broken sleazy LibDems on the slide!Scott_P said:
Yes/Yes: Con
Yes/No: BXP, or tactically Con
No/Yes: Con or LibDem, depending which matters most to you
No/No: Lab or LibDem, whichever seems best able to win - and in most seats that is felt to be Lab
Issues like "What do you think of Corbyn/Swinson?" and "Do you approve of austerity?" have faded almost completely into the background.0 -
The point of a bounce is it comes back down again.
Meanwhile the metaphor generating machine has produced again.
Our leader surveys a long neglected edifice which has been undermined. Vast pressure is building behind threatening to sweep the entirety away, causing untold damage and distress.
Not much to do but have optimism that a hastily patched together solution can be successful.
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Ohh Jeremy Corbyn !bigjohnowls said:On Topic What dire polling?
Boris UnBounce
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 30% (+3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (-3)
BREX: 15% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
via
@ComRes
, 26 - 28 Jul
Chgs. w/ 25 Jul0 -
ComRes have gone from saying Boris Johnson would lead the Tories to 150 seat plus majority to being 1% behind in the space of a few weeks.FrancisUrquhart said:Polling companies havent got a scoobie doo if the range is +10 to -1.
ComRes does not stand for Comedy Results, honest.0 -
Imagine the sort of people that bet on this malarkey.FrancisUrquhart said:Polling companies havent got a scoobie doo if the range is +10 to -1.
0 -
NEW THREAD
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@HYUFD should review his words about “a war” with Leavers and consider what that means in the context of Northern Ireland.SandyRentool said:HYUFD mistakenly believes that everyone who voted Leave supports Leave in any form. Deal or No Deal.
This is of course bollocks, and so undermines the rest of his 'We must No Deal' thesis.
0
