politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere
Comments
-
Your interpretation has not been upheld by the Courts. Claims that Brexit breaches the GFA have been rejected.williamglenn said:
This is the policy of the British government, which precludes a GB vote from determining the relationship between NI and Ireland:JBriskinindyref2 said:
I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leavewilliamglenn said:
Nope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The 2016 EU referendumwilliamglenn said:
Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?RobD said:
I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.rottenborough said:
Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
"The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish. They reaffirm as a binding obligation that they will, for their part, introduce the necessary legislation to give effect to this, or equally to any measure of agreement on future relationships in Ireland which the people living in Ireland may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."
The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
Logically, it would follow from your argument, that if the Irish Republic voted to leave the EU, Northern Ireland would also be required to do so, even if the rest of the UK wished to remain.1 -
Good job england bat deep....0
-
Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.0
-
OldKingCole said:
Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.kjh said:
Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.OldKingCole said:
I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.Tabman said:
Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.kjh said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Ws.RochdalePioneers said:Its
Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.0 -
Are there any other countries that would take him?OldKingCole said:
I thought life was one long honeymoon for him. When he was finished with the one with one partner, he moved on to another!Tissue_Price said:
BJ on honeymoon? Not in WalesMarqueeMark said:
No. It doesn't say anything about politics without a comma after honeymoon.TheScreamingEagles said:So should I use this on Sunday?
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/11562938897514332160 -
Yes. They were always hard sportsmen, prepared to test the rules to breaking point, but they did it with a laconic charm, and they had great great talents (like Warne)AndyJS said:
They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.Byronic said:The Australians are a hard team to like.
Now. hmm. There's much less personality and much more "professionalism". Not very attractive,0 -
I understand the history and social background of Ireland just as well as you do if not better you arrogant prick.TOPPING said:
For you, and Tyndall, as with Rob. There is sadly no way to be able to make a comment on Northern Ireland without understanding the history and context.Philip_Thompson said:
I've yet to hear one reason why the Irish can have a border they desire for Corporation Tax, a border they desire for VAT, a border they desire for Income Tax, a border they desire for Abortion, but a border for customs duties is beyond the pale?Richard_Tyndall said:
So like I said no mention of borders at all then.williamglenn said:
It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
And if it is the case that that sentence means we are unable to leave the EU ever because membership of the EU is defined within the GFA then Lilico is right and the GFA is dead.
The border already exists. The Irish are against harmonising taxes.
On the page everything seems pretty straightforward but it is far more complicated and nuanced.
As a start understanding that there are customs borders not to check that people are compliant but to catch those who are not compliant is a big step forward for you guys.0 -
Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.0
-
But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.OldKingCole said:
The reunification of the island of Ireland.JBriskinindyref2 said:
reunification of what ?OldKingCole said:
I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)williamglenn said:
"The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."JBriskinindyref2 said:
I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leavewilliamglenn said:
Nope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The 2016 EU referendumwilliamglenn said:
Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?RobD said:
I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.rottenborough said:
Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
I guess we're remaining then.
And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.0 -
kjh said:
kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.kjh said:
Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.OldKingCole said:
I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.Tabman said:
Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.kjh said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Ws.RochdalePioneers said:Its
Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.0 -
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
0 -
Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?0
-
This is not the time for soundbites.....AndyJS said:Don't want to blow my own trumpet but I won the prediction competition on the VoteUK discussion forum for forecasting the result of the Brecon & Radnor by-election. There were about 20 entries altogether. My prediction was LD 45, Con 37, BRX 11, Lab 5.5, Others 1.5.
0 -
Merv Hughes? He kept on calling England batsmen arsewipe and other really bad language after every delivery.AndyJS said:
They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.Byronic said:The Australians are a hard team to like.
0 -
And before him, lillee and thompson....good job no stump mics at that time!TheScreamingEagles said:
Merv Hughes? He kept on calling England batsmen arsewipe and other really bad language after every delivery.AndyJS said:
They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.Byronic said:The Australians are a hard team to like.
0 -
kjh said:
LOL. I did have a bit of a double look! No worries. It's happened to me more than once!kjh said:
kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.kjh said:
Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.OldKingCole said:
Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.Tabman said:
Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.kjh said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Ws.RochdalePioneers said:Its
Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.0 -
I am a permanent resident of the naughty step.TOPPING said:
Naughty Rob and tbh to keep making the point you think you are making betrays a deep misunderstanding of the history and current situation of Northern Ireland.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
No shame in not knowing its history but you are making a bit of a fool of yourself by not giving up this line.
Still waiting to hear how the backstop solves the only piece of the GFA that has been quoted stating that UK and Ireland must cooperate as members of the European Union.0 -
OldKingCole said:
One-all!kjh said:
LOL. I did have a bit of a double look! No worries. It's happened to me more than once!kjh said:
kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.kjh said:
Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.OldKingCole said:
Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.Tabman said:
Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.kjh said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Ws.RochdalePioneers said:Its
Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.0 -
One has to be careful regarding proposalsRichard_Nabavi said:
One of the current proposals is to go back to the bad old days when all Council services were supplied in-house, and actually making it illegal for local councils to seek best value. By any measure that is extreme as well as bonkers; I'm not sure it's 'radical' as such, given that it is throwing away four decades of progress which has been imitated throughout the world. It's more like discredited old-style stuff from the 'sick man of Europe' sixties.Yorkcity said:
Maybe ,however to me getting rid of the house of lords, replacing with an elected second chamber.PR for elected MPs and councils.Elected Head of state, would be radical.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, one can quibble about definitions, but nationalisation without proper compensation goes a long way down the route to Marxism.TOPPING said:Maybe but I can't see a Labour government implementing Marxist policies.
A manifesto which said nationalise the railways , when the franchise expires is a bit tame.
As George Monbiot said, when he put ideas into the Labour Party regarding land ownership etc.
Many of the ideas were presented by the right wing media as Labour policy, when in fact they were up for discussion.0 -
We can forgive them for their eccentricitiesIanB2 said:
But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.OldKingCole said:
The reunification of the island of Ireland.JBriskinindyref2 said:
reunification of what ?OldKingCole said:
I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)williamglenn said:
"The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."JBriskinindyref2 said:
I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leavewilliamglenn said:
Nope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The 2016 EU referendumwilliamglenn said:
Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?RobD said:
I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.rottenborough said:
Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
I guess we're remaining then.
And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.0 -
Quite right...by the time mcdonnell puts his marxist idealogy on them they will be even more extreme.Yorkcity said:
One has to be careful regarding proposalsRichard_Nabavi said:
One of the current proposals is to go back to the bad old days when all Council services were supplied in-house, and actually making it illegal for local councils to seek best value. By any measure that is extreme as well as bonkers; I'm not sure it's 'radical' as such, given that it is throwing away four decades of progress which has been imitated throughout the world. It's more like discredited old-style stuff from the 'sick man of Europe' sixties.Yorkcity said:
Maybe ,however to me getting rid of the house of lords, replacing with an elected second chamber.PR for elected MPs and councils.Elected Head of state, would be radical.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, one can quibble about definitions, but nationalisation without proper compensation goes a long way down the route to Marxism.TOPPING said:Maybe but I can't see a Labour government implementing Marxist policies.
A manifesto which said nationalise the railways , when the franchise expires is a bit tame.
As George Monbiot said, when he put ideas into the Labour Party regarding land ownership etc.
Many of the ideas were presented by the right wing media as Labour policy, when in fact they were up for discussion.0 -
kjh said:
Looks like we agree.kjh said:
kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.kjh said:
Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.OldKingCole said:
I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.Tabman said:
Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.kjh said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Ws.RochdalePioneers said:Its
Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.0 -
Doesn't think much of the 'will of the people' then? Or would he prefer some sort of Proportional Representation?TheScreamingEagles said:I might do a thread on AV this weekend.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/11573013638371942410 -
Joff Says: "Currently, though, Pidcock and Long Bailey are largely invisible to all but the most committed of members. It will take time for that to change. Were one of them to go up against Cooper, Thornberry or Nandy now (and it would only be one given the nomination process) the chances are she would lose."
This is not how I read the situation. The Labour membership was, as we know, infiltrated by socialists to select Corbyn. A proportion of members have left over last couple of years - I assume these to be centrists - therefore, the Labour Party is more captured than ever by the hard left.
Any hard left candidate (man or women) would win more handsomely than Corbyn did. It will be whoever Corbyn anoints.0 -
0
-
Corbyn: not what I hear, watch the Labour conference, especially if they have just lost Hallam by a landslide.0
-
If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
A joint body, like the EU for instance? What a good idea!rcs1000 said:
To be fair, throughout history there have been many, many customs unions.Philip_Thompson said:
I've yet to hear one reason why the Irish can have a border they desire for Corporation Tax, a border they desire for VAT, a border they desire for Income Tax, a border they desire for Abortion, but a border for customs duties is beyond the pale?Richard_Tyndall said:
So like I said no mention of borders at all then.williamglenn said:
It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
And if it is the case that that sentence means we are unable to leave the EU ever because membership of the EU is defined within the GFA then Lilico is right and the GFA is dead.
The border already exists. The Irish are against harmonising taxes.
But there aren't many (if any) examples of neighbouring nations harmonising corporate tax. (Not least because who decides when it changes? Are we allowing Ireland to set ours? Or are they setting ours? Or are we setting up a joint body?)0 -
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
Shit, how cloth eared can you get? Brown's finest moments as PM were his flood visits in his first couple of months, and those were just normal floods. The Whaley Bridge crisis has generated headlines with dam and RAF in them, and if that doesn't electrify his core vote, what will?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1157312089435885575
He didn't chair the COBRA meeting today0 -
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
YJB's doesn't want to give up the gloves.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
Put Denly as opener and Roy at 4.0 -
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
He not really a Prime Minister in the conventional sense though. He's more Minister for the Implementation of Brexit. Once that is done, or done with, he'll fuck off and we'll get a normal one in his place.Ishmael_Z said:
Shit, how cloth eared can you get? Brown's finest moments as PM were his flood visits in his first couple of months, and those were just normal floods. The Whaley Bridge crisis has generated headlines with dam and RAF in them, and if that doesn't electrify his core vote, what will?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1157312089435885575
He didn't chair the COBRA meeting today0 -
It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
2 -
He has to radically alter his approach and technique. He cant go hard at the ball like he does when opening in a test match. I just cant see him doing so, it seems ingrained him to try and bash the ball out the park every ball.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
Finch is the same for Australia. Massively destructive in T20, but can never see him batting like burns to grind out a 5-6hr century.0 -
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.0 -
Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heardTheuniondivvie said:
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.
Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?
Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.0 -
If only the feckers were overseas...IanB2 said:
But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.OldKingCole said:
The reunification of the island of Ireland.JBriskinindyref2 said:
reunification of what ?OldKingCole said:
I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)williamglenn said:
"The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."JBriskinindyref2 said:
I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leavewilliamglenn said:
Nope.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The 2016 EU referendumwilliamglenn said:
Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?RobD said:
I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.rottenborough said:
Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.RobD said:
Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?rottenborough said:
Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
I guess we're remaining then.
And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.0 -
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night0 -
Swann was on his show the other day saying that the modern era ozzies are told basically not to acknowledge the poms during the ashes (even ones they are big mates with). They isnt anywhere near as much sledging, its more ignoring the opposition.0
-
No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)dixiedean said:I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.0 -
Stump mics are making sledging a bit more difficult, two test players have been banned just this year for saying racist/bigoted stuff.FrancisUrquhart said:Swann was on his show the other day saying that the modern era ozzies are told basically not to acknowledge the poms during the ashes (even ones they are big mates with). They isnt anywhere near as much sledging, its more ignoring the opposition.
0 -
Even farts go to Oxford. One of them is now our PM and really screwing us.HYUFD said:
No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)dixiedean said:I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.0 -
There is already a remarkable mirroring of Labour attitudes among Tory members, fixated on their new leader despite everything that is obvious to non members. And in the minority who see the emperor has no clothes and are quietly leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDsIanB2 said:
Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.HYUFD said:If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.
The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
Let’s see how it all pans out.0 -
New, new ball coming up. Vital last hour coming up I feel.0
-
0
-
There is no reason at all why any disillusioned Labour MP would wish to express confidence in Johnson - whatever their views of Corbyn.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a voncjustin124 said:
Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.Philip_Thompson said:
What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?justin124 said:
Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.Pulpstar said:
When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.Nigel_Foremain said:Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?
I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.0 -
Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=210 -
Wasn't Pidcock at Durham?HYUFD said:
No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)dixiedean said:I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.
Long-Bailey was at Manchester Met, and tbh from the things she says she must have struggled to get into that.0 -
Because he can't bat. Scored 2 ducks against a strong Irish attack.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.ydoethur said:
Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
0 -
Pidcock was at Manchester Met and Northumbria unis. Not sure about Long-Bailey.ydoethur said:
Wasn't Pidcock at Durham?HYUFD said:
No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)dixiedean said:I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.
Long-Bailey was at Manchester Met, and tbh from the things she says she must have struggled to get into that.0 -
Not truePeter_the_Punter said:
But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.ydoethur said:
Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
Cook Tresothick Gooch just to name 30 -
I've never been able to Manchester Met seriously, not because I'm an elitist and snob about former polys, but it is hard to take seriously a university whose logo resembles Sam the Eagle.
0 -
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=210 -
Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrathTheScreamingEagles said:
Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heardTheuniondivvie said:
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.
Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?
Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"0 -
@Zephyr
Macdonnell identifies as a Marxist.
Corbyn calls himself a 'democratic Socialist,' which you may be unaware is a phrase coined by Lenin, which he explained more fully as part of 'the dictatorship of the Proletariat' - that is, the right sort of people would have the power to make decisions. He may of course be unaware of this, as he admits to not having 'read as much Marx as I [he] should have done.'
You may argue his policies are not Marxist and you would be right. But you are missing the entire point of that manifesto. Like Chavez, it was a populist document designed to get him into power. None of it added up, none of it made sense, and very little of it could have been implemented. It seems likely therefore that if he ever got into power he would have been forced to make changes. It is unlikely they would have made them in the direction of capitalism (as say, Callaghan did).
So it's perfectly fair to call them Marxists. If you say they're not proper Marxists because they don't know what that means, feel free. But don't accuse others of laziness for doing so.0 -
Also for people about to start their pension years. Annuity rates are terrible.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1157276337570308096
More problems for pension companies?0 -
Could have sworn a Somerset batsman made 92 opening against Ireland last week.Peter_the_Punter said:
But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.ydoethur said:
Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.Tissue_Price said:
People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.TheScreamingEagles said:
They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.FrancisUrquhart said:Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
1 -
Wasn't Eddo Brandes a Zimbabwean fast bowler and chicken farmer?SquareRoot said:
Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrathTheScreamingEagles said:
Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heardTheuniondivvie said:
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.
Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?
Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"0 -
Yes sorry, don't know what I was thinking,... trying to type and listen to the cricket.ydoethur said:
Wasn't Eddo Brandes a Zimbabwean fast bowler and chicken farmer?SquareRoot said:
Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrathTheScreamingEagles said:
Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heardTheuniondivvie said:
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.
Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?
Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"0 -
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
0 -
LOL at the Canary
https://order-order.com/2019/08/02/canary-forced-downsize-blames-zionists/
Lets blame the zionists.....0 -
In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
0 -
You reckon another 50% increase in seat numbers in on the cards? 12 -> 18?justin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
Mind the windows, Tino.SquareRoot said:
Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrathTheScreamingEagles said:
Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heardTheuniondivvie said:
In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.FrancisUrquhart said:Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
Maybe not.
Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?
Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"
On topic, SO is right. Corbyn protects the lefty slate from the centre left and the lefty slate protects him. The way the party is set up means it's a long way back for anyone wanting a centrist leader.0 -
Mossad at work....Floater said:LOL at the Canary
https://order-order.com/2019/08/02/canary-forced-downsize-blames-zionists/
Lets blame the zionists.....0 -
In Jezza doesn't win a GE, what will their reaction be....Floater said:LOL at the Canary
https://order-order.com/2019/08/02/canary-forced-downsize-blames-zionists/
Lets blame the zionists.....0 -
French farmers dump manure outside office of En Marche representative in protest at EU trade deal with Canada
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests/french-farmers-dump-manure-outside-office-of-macron-party-lawmaker-idUKKCN1US0JG0 -
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.0 -
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=210 -
Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'. Also a not insignificant Plaid and Green vote in 2015.ydoethur said:
In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
0 -
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.1 -
The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit PartyChris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.0 -
But it contradicts your point. There is no evidence of tactical voting here. Most of the changes in vote share can be explained by the changing demography of the seat. Fewer manual workers, more middle-class retirees. Just as, in 2015, there is no evidence of tactical unwind.justin124 said:
Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'.ydoethur said:
In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
That's not to say it's not happening, but if it is it seems to be on a pretty low level.0 -
Just remain in equities and sell/ take dividends instead of purchasing an annuity ?surbiton19 said:
Also for people about to start their pension years. Annuity rates are terrible.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1157276337570308096
More problems for pension companies?1 -
To be fair, attitudes to the Euro elections tend to be pretty frivolous , and this year both Labour and the Tories abstained from serious campaigning.Chris said:
It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.justin124 said:
It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.Pulpstar said:
Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.AndyJS said:Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.0 -
@Zephyr
That is a most appealing post there. 'Marxist' is thrown about as slang for lefty sounding types who one doesn't like the smell of. 'Neoliberal' does similar for the opposite.
The Labour offering under Corbyn is hard left social democracy. It's exactly what we need right now.-1 -
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=210 -
The sooner you stop expecting Labour MPs to ride to the rescue, the sooner you'll stop being disappointedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a voncjustin124 said:
Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.Philip_Thompson said:
What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?justin124 said:
Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.Pulpstar said:
When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.Nigel_Foremain said:Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?
I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.0 -
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
That poll is from May. It is currently August.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.0 -
It is still the latest pollrcs1000 said:
That poll is from May. It is currently August.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
Good first two days cricket by England. Hopefully we can bat through tomorrow as well, maybe declare with an hour to go if we are still batting and have a substantial lead.0
-
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election0 -
2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.justin124 said:
Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.HYUFD said:
No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do nowjustin124 said:
Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.kle4 said:
The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?Philip_Thompson said:
Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.Byronic said:Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.
Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.1 -
I think we can both agree that the information value of a poll degrades over time.HYUFD said:
It is still the latest pollrcs1000 said:
That poll is from May. It is currently August.HYUFD said:
Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoffSouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls0 -
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.0 -
Archie McInnes, one of the last of "The Few" Battle of Britain fighter pilots has died hours after turning 100.
Flt Lt McInnes flew Hurricanes during the war and also took part in the hunt for the Bismarck. He lost an arm in 1941 after being shot down.
There now remain only five surviving Battle of Britain pilots - all centenarians :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-492040900 -
Le Pen lost all but two departments in the second round. Not that it is departments that determines who wins.0
-
There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral CollegePhilip_Thompson said:
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.0 -
It's nice to see that he even managed to fulfil what was probably his last ambition..JackW said:Archie McInnes, one of the last of "The Few" Battle of Britain fighter pilots has died hours after turning 100.
Flt Lt McInnes flew Hurricanes during the war and also took part in the hunt for the Bismarck. He lost an arm in 1941 after being shot down.
There now remain only five surviving Battle of Britain pilots - all centenarians :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-492040901 -
Yes but popular vote wins it in France and the Electoral College wins it in USA. Saying "ah but" is moot.HYUFD said:
There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral CollegePhilip_Thompson said:
So frigging what!?HYUFD said:
Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.rcs1000 said:
Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.HYUFD said:
In terms of departments won she didsurbiton19 said:
Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.SouthamObserver said:Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Firstly departments don't matter.
Secondly it only the second round that decides it.
That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.0
