politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn the Tory 19.5% majority to win the Brecon and
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You make the big assumption that Farage wants Brexit delivered.dyedwoolie said:
Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I thinkSouthamObserver said:Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.
Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?0 -
I think that is because LibDemmery is Mushy. You don't believe in anything very definite, other than a vague anti-Toryism. Fine.El_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
I just don't think most Plaid Cymru or Green voters are like that.
In most constituencies, they already know that they are unlikely to win. They are voting Plaid Cymru or Green because they believe in those parties.
As I pointed out, SNP voters faced calls to vote "tactically" in the 1980s and 1990s. Look what happened.0 -
Seamlessly, you are becoming a BJ fan !Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
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BigG is a perhaps bit more affected by party tribalism than he may think he is. Which is not a criticism, just that inherent party loyalty, which is fully admitted, can have subtler effect than the more extreme examples would one to believe.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
Or it could be because I've been replaying Mass Effect 3 so matters of people being unknowingly indoctrinated is playing on my mind.0 -
They elected Labour MPs who passed devolution, got rid of the Tories, built up their strength in the resulting Scottish Parliament and when they were strong enough to have a decent chance of winning in their own right their voters stopped voting tactically for other parties and started voting for them, and like-minded voters from other parties started voting tactically for them, too. What's not to like?YBarddCwsc said:
As I pointed out, SNP voters faced calls to vote "tactically" in the 1980s and 1990s. Look what happened.0 -
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values0 -
The majority is half the size Roger Williams got in 2010. And that was in a GE, not a by-election against a tainted candidate.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
The LibDems are going to lose this seat come the GE.
It serves you right for choosing an unsuitable candidate.
Dodds just reinforces the tradition of the LibDems in mid-Wales of choosing people who don't represent the constituency.
Lembit and Carlile were parachuted in from outside the Solar system.0 -
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.0 -
Quite. His actions would indicate that he perhaps wants Brexit delivered in theory, but not at any cost to himself. Cutting an actual deal undercuts his power over the tory right.Recidivist said:
You make the big assumption that Farage wants Brexit delivered.dyedwoolie said:
Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I thinkSouthamObserver said:Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.
Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?0 -
maybe Gardenwalker can stand next time,YBarddCwsc said:
The majority is half the size Roger Williams got in 2010. And that was in a GE, not a by-election against a tainted candidate.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
The LibDems are going to lose this seat come the GE.
It serves you right for choosing an unsuitable candidate.
Dodds just reinforces the tradition of the LibDems in mid-Wales of choosing people who don't represent the constituency.
Lembit and Carlile were parachuted in from outside the Solar system.
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In fairness both Livsey and Williams were local. Williams was, amusingly, Jonathan Evans' landlord.YBarddCwsc said:
The majority is half the size Roger Williams got in 2010. And that was in a GE, not a by-election against a tainted candidate.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
The LibDems are going to lose this seat come the GE.
It serves you right for choosing an unsuitable candidate.
Dodds just reinforces the tradition of the LibDems in mid-Wales of choosing people who don't represent the constituency.
Lembit and Carlile were parachuted in from outside the Solar system.0 -
He did stay within his budget. He was not stealing. The judge was quite clear that he was fully entitled to the money he claimed.malcolmg said:
The greedy git was just stealing. He had spent all his budget so should have either , Not purchased or self funded. A crook plain and simple.ydoethur said:
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.Luckyguy1983 said:
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.NickPalmer said:
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have been profitable for the Tories.AlastairMeeks said:Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
He had two budgets from which he could have claimed the cost of these photos - office costs and startup costs. He didn't have enough in his startup costs budget to cover this cost in full. However, he did have enough in his office costs budget and he still had money left in that budget at the end of the year. If he had claimed from his office costs budget there would have been no problem - he would have been refunded in full and would not have had to dip into his own pocket.
It seems that he was concerned he might run out of money in his office costs budget (wrongly as it happens) so wanted to use his remaining startup costs budget to fund part of this cost. He was entitled to spread the cost across the two budgets. If he had done so by getting the photographer to issue two invoices, one for each budget, there would have been no problem. However, he chose to produce his own invoices. That was the problem.
Some people seem to struggle with the concept that he was convicted of an offence from which neither he nor anyone else made any financial gain. But that is exactly what has happened here. He was entitled to claim the money back. There was more than enough money in the two budgets to cover this expense. He was entitled to spread the expense over the two budgets. But the way he went about it was stupid and wrong.1 -
I may not have saved it but I'm afraid you did use the term, so it is a term you would use. It was because it seemed so out of character for you that I remember it. Granted I'm clearly sketchy on some of the details surrounding it, but my brain has no reason to invent a slur that you used the word betrayal.NickPalmer said:
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.0 -
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:
The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.Foxy said:
Norwich South, Isle of Wight would be a good start, but also interesting to run a Green LD candidate in a safe Labour seat like Leicester South. I wouldn't be averse to a formal coupon election.MarqueeMark said:The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?0 -
Very good!Alanbrooke said:
maybe Gardenwalker can stand next time,YBarddCwsc said:
The majority is half the size Roger Williams got in 2010. And that was in a GE, not a by-election against a tainted candidate.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
The LibDems are going to lose this seat come the GE.
It serves you right for choosing an unsuitable candidate.
Dodds just reinforces the tradition of the LibDems in mid-Wales of choosing people who don't represent the constituency.
Lembit and Carlile were parachuted in from outside the Solar system.0 -
Swinson was asked about it on R4 just half hour ago, and while she didn't deny it she genuinely didn't seem to know. If he was joining (which would be more than peculiar given his Brexit stance and voting record), she'd know.ydoethur said:
Perhaps HE's joining the Liberal Democrats?Theuniondivvie said:
Fwiw R4 said it wasn't retiral.ydoethur said:
If he really wanted to cause an explosion he would join the Tories.nichomar said:Frank Field to TBP at noon or retiring?
But surely he won't do that given the amount of trouble he's been to trying to untangle their blunders over UC?
Guess is he's retiring.
Would be implausible but would also be quite funny.0 -
Livsey in particular was impressive.ydoethur said:
In fairness both Livsey and Williams were local. Williams was, amusingly, Jonathan Evans' landlord.YBarddCwsc said:
The majority is half the size Roger Williams got in 2010. And that was in a GE, not a by-election against a tainted candidate.IanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
The LibDems are going to lose this seat come the GE.
It serves you right for choosing an unsuitable candidate.
Dodds just reinforces the tradition of the LibDems in mid-Wales of choosing people who don't represent the constituency.
Lembit and Carlile were parachuted in from outside the Solar system.0 -
In the current climate I think its fair to say the LDs are the most conservative party!Alanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values0 -
Swinson was calling Corbyn a Brexiteer on Radio 5 this morning, which is a smart move.IanB2 said:
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:
The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.Foxy said:
Norwich South, Isle of Wight would be a good start, but also interesting to run a Green LD candidate in a safe Labour seat like Leicester South. I wouldn't be averse to a formal coupon election.MarqueeMark said:The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?0 -
Isn't it partly that there's no give and take with Labour, just a blanket and tribal policy of always Labour? With hindsight, might you have been able to give him a free run in a council ward?NickPalmer said:
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
My concern with Labour on this is the attitude of, "why the hell don't these morons just bow to Labour as the only alternative to the Tories?" Not giving respect, just demanding obedience.0 -
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Some people seem to struggle with the concept that he was convicted of a crime, and therefore any financial gain there was or wasnt is irrelevant next to him being a crook. I have no issue if the voters choose to reelect him even if tactically I think selecting him for the by election was a mistake, but whether he personally benefited from his crime hardly seems to matter next to committing the crime.prh47bridge said:
He did stay within his budget. He was not stealing. The judge was quite clear that he was fully entitled to the money he claimed.malcolmg said:
The greedy git was just stealing. He had spent all his budget so should have either , Not purchased or self funded. A crook plain and simple.ydoethur said:
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.Luckyguy1983 said:
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.NickPalmer said:
I suspect quite a few voters actually like him and feel he was unlucky. One can overestimate personal votes but it's usually worth a few % - replacing him with a newcomer might not have off.AlastairMeeks said:Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
He had two budgets from which he could have claimed the cost of these photos - office costs and startup costs. He didn't have enough in his startup costs budget to cover this cost in full. However, he did have enough in his office costs budget and he still had money left in that budget at the end of the year. If he had claimed from his office costs budget there would have been no problem - he would have been refunded in full and would not have had to dip into his own pocket.
It seems that he was concerned he might run out of money in his office costs budget (wrongly as it happens) so wanted to use his remaining startup costs budget to fund part of this cost. He was entitled to spread the cost across the two budgets. If he had done so by getting the photographer to issue two invoices, one for each budget, there would have been no problem. However, he chose to produce his own invoices. That was the problem.
Some people seem to struggle with the concept that he was convicted of an offence from which neither he nor anyone else made any financial gain. But that is exactly what has happened here. He was entitled to claim the money back. There was more than enough money in the two budgets to cover this expense. He was entitled to spread the expense over the two budgets. But the way he went about it was stupid and wrong.0 -
I was going to say that's unfair as Brexiteers at least know what they want.glw said:
Swinson was calling Corbyn a Brexiteer on Radio 5 this morning, which is a smart move.IanB2 said:
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:
The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.Foxy said:
Norwich South, Isle of Wight would be a good start, but also interesting to run a Green LD candidate in a safe Labour seat like Leicester South. I wouldn't be averse to a formal coupon election.MarqueeMark said:The LibDems have much to be thankful for that Plaid and the Greens stood aside.
Nationally, where are the LibDems going to stand aside for the Greens in a general?
Then I engaged my brain.1 -
Typical Labour - all take and no give, and taking things personally when someone wants to stand for their own party. Labour promised to change the voting system and then didn't - that was the betrayal.NickPalmer said:
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
At least the LibDems stood down in Brighton and Skipton last time, and will surely offer the Greens a better deal this time.
What did Labour ever offer?0 -
That isAlanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values
(a) bollocks; I would rather sandpaper my eyeballs than vote for Corbyn or, come to mention it, Tom Watson
(b) breathtakingly presumptive; just because my core values don’t align with what you think politics should be about (let me guess, reducing taxes and a strong military?) you decide I don’t have any
(c) a perfect example of how Boris’s no-deal, no-surrender Conservatives are retreating into irrelevance for much of the country0 -
theyre the status quo party.noneoftheabove said:
In the current climate I think its fair to say the LDs are the most conservative party!Alanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values0 -
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Disagree, he now only has a majority of 1 making an election more likely and there was a swing from Labour to the Tories last night even if also from the Tories to LDsScott_P said:0 -
That's a non-sequitur.Alanbrooke said:El_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative [...] you dont actually have any core values
You might passionately dislike a stance that one party holds so much that you would do anything to oppose it - no matter who it meant voting for. That's a core value.
You might, hypothetically, for example feel that certain right-wing parties will always stand for the kind of laissez-faire capitalist model that causes ferries to set sail with bow doors open, planes to be designed to such cost-cutting measures that they crash, or rampant irresponsible sub-prime lending by banks that were deregulated.
If you feel passionately about such things you might vote for any party that opposes them and protects people's well-being.
Or you might feel that Brexit is such a crock of sh*t that you'll vote for anything that stops it, no matter what rosette they're wearing.
These little examples (not so little for those caught up in their god-awful consequences) are just as much core value as cheering your football team on even though you ought to know they're rubbish compared to the opposition.0 -
It says something about Frank Field (who I do actually like) that it'd not be totally surprising if he joined the Brexit Party or if he joined the Lib Dems today! Neither is likely, but equally neither is totally impossible based on who Field is.0
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so what are they ? you didnt mention any just who you wouldnt vote for.El_Capitano said:
That isAlanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values
(a) bollocks; I would rather sandpaper my eyeballs than vote for Corbyn or, come to mention it, Tom Watson
(b) breathtakingly presumptive; just because my core values don’t align with what you think politics should be about (let me guess, reducing taxes and a strong military?) you decide I don’t have any
(c) a perfect example of how Boris’s no-deal, no-surrender Conservatives are retreating into irrelevance for much of the country
and then you went all ranty0 -
Ends and means. I might have left my phone in your house, and you've gone out. I am entitled to have my phone but that doesn't mean I can break into your house to get it.prh47bridge said:
He did stay within his budget. He was not stealing. The judge was quite clear that he was fully entitled to the money he claimed.malcolmg said:
The greedy git was just stealing. He had spent all his budget so should have either , Not purchased or self funded. A crook plain and simple.ydoethur said:
Well, it wasn't a 'missing' receipt so the latter option was out.Luckyguy1983 said:
I can't think why he didn't ask for a duplicate receipt, or submit a missing receipt affadavit - what he did was suicidally incompetent.NickPalmer said:AlastairMeeks said:Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
Anyway, congrats to the LibDems. If I'd been able to choose the exact amount of lent Labour votes this would have been it - retanining the deposit but enough transfers to reduce the Government majority. I predicted a LD majority of 1500, which turned out not far off.
But he should have done the first.
Or better yet, stayed within his budget.
He had two budgets from which he could have claimed the cost of these photos - office costs and startup costs. He didn't have enough in his startup costs budget to cover this cost in full. However, he did have enough in his office costs budget and he still had money left in that budget at the end of the year. If he had claimed from his office costs budget there would have been no problem - he would have been refunded in full and would not have had to dip into his own pocket.
It seems that he was concerned he might run out of money in his office costs budget (wrongly as it happens) so wanted to use his remaining startup costs budget to fund part of this cost. He was entitled to spread the cost across the two budgets. If he had done so by getting the photographer to issue two invoices, one for each budget, there would have been no problem. However, he chose to produce his own invoices. That was the problem.
Some people seem to struggle with the concept that he was convicted of an offence from which neither he nor anyone else made any financial gain. But that is exactly what has happened here. He was entitled to claim the money back. There was more than enough money in the two budgets to cover this expense. He was entitled to spread the expense over the two budgets. But the way he went about it was stupid and wrong.
Forging documents to claim expenses is always serious, period.0 -
I respected Corbyn for not standing aside in Brighton. It was a seat theyd like to win and it doesnt belong to Lucas.IanB2 said:
Typical Labour - all take and no give, and taking things personally when someone wants to stand for their own party. Labour promised to change the voting system and then didn't - that was the betrayal.NickPalmer said:
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
At least the LibDems stood down in Brighton and Skipton last time, and will surely offer the Greens a better deal this time.
What did Labour ever offer?0 -
They should copy the US "Green New Deal" tactic and demand the following bold steps to deal with the Climate Emergency:IanB2 said:
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.
* End imprisonment for possession of illegal drugs for personal use
* £300m for community policing in England and Wales
* 1p in the pound on income tax to raise £6bn for NHS and social care services
* Proportional Representation
* EU referendum0 -
They are voting Remain, simple. Not some confusing nonsense.ydoethur said:
Which is my point. This is a heavy blow to Labour in heartlands that have been rock solid for literally a century.IanB2 said:LibDem tallies at the count indicate a clear LD win in Ystradgynlais, which as the largest town in the seat and usually Labour will have been key.
Not just a tactical vote. Labour voters in large numbers prefer the LibDems’ stance on Brexit to that of their own party. And probably its leadership too.
Edit - and since Socialism would have been popular here, they can't even say Corbyn's underlying policies are unpopular.
0 -
As expected - all the wrong lessons.Scott_P said:
This was a dud result for the Tories. They could and should have done better.0 -
On last night's evidence, Farage's power is reduced to threatening to stand candidates with the purpose of denying the Conservatives the ability to win seats rather than to win seats for the Brexit Party. (That might still be an attractive prospect for Farage in seats where the Tory MP has tried to derail Brexit, whether or not they still have the whip by the time of the GE). Only in seats where the Conservatives failed to stand a candidate might the Brexit Party have a chance of winning.kle4 said:
Quite. His actions would indicate that he perhaps wants Brexit delivered in theory, but not at any cost to himself. Cutting an actual deal undercuts his power over the tory right.Recidivist said:
You make the big assumption that Farage wants Brexit delivered.dyedwoolie said:
Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I thinkSouthamObserver said:Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.
Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?0 -
Just think, without a remain alliance that could have been a Con hold.0
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My hope would be that the LibDems, Greens (and Renew), with some support from the nationalists, sign up to some sort of accord committed to the three priorities of Responding to the environmental threat of Climate Change, Opposing Brexit, and Political Reform.edmundintokyo said:
They should copy the US "Green New Deal" tactic and demand the following bold steps to deal with the Climate Emergency:IanB2 said:
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.
* End imprisonment for possession of illegal drugs for personal use
* £300m for community policing in England and Wales
* 1p in the pound on income tax to raise £6bn for NHS and social care services
* Proportional Representation
* EU referendum
Handled right, it could be quite a moment - particularly if it is choreographed with some more defections from Tory and Labour.0 -
so in other words you vote tribalMysticrose said:
That's a non-sequitur.Alanbrooke said:El_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics do chance of winning.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative [...] you dont actually have any core values
You might passionately dislike a stance that one party holds so much that you would do anything to oppose it - no matter who it meant voting for. That's a core value.
You might, hypothetically, for example feel that certain right-wing parties will always stand for the kind of laissez-faire capitalist model that causes ferries to set sail with bow doors open, planes to be designed to such cost-cutting measures that they crash, or rampant irresponsible sub-prime lending by banks that were deregulated.
If you feel passionately about such things you might vote for any party that opposes them and protects people's well-being.
Or you might feel that Brexit is such a crock of sh*t that you'll vote for anything that stops it, no matter what rosette they're wearing.
These little examples (not so little for those caught up in their god-awful consequences) are just as much core value as cheering your football team on even though you ought to know they're rubbish compared to the opposition.0 -
Er, Surby...those voters really will not have been voting Remain. If they are still voting for the Liberal Democrats anyway, something is wrong (for Labour - obviously not for the Liberal Democrats).surbiton19 said:
They are voting Remain, simple. Not some confusing nonsense.ydoethur said:
Which is my point. This is a heavy blow to Labour in heartlands that have been rock solid for literally a century.IanB2 said:LibDem tallies at the count indicate a clear LD win in Ystradgynlais, which as the largest town in the seat and usually Labour will have been key.
Not just a tactical vote. Labour voters in large numbers prefer the LibDems’ stance on Brexit to that of their own party. And probably its leadership too.
Edit - and since Socialism would have been popular here, they can't even say Corbyn's underlying policies are unpopular.0 -
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party0 -
That power you list is the most important to him. It's not them winning which terrifies Tories, its preventing tories from winning. Some tories want to fight BXP, others want to roll over and show their bellies and hope Farage plays nice.Wulfrun_Phil said:
On last night's evidence, Farage's power is reduced to threatening to stand candidates with the purpose of denying the Conservatives the ability to win seats rather than to win seats for the Brexit Party. (That might still be an attractive prospect for Farage in seats where the Tory MP has tried to derail Brexit, whether or not they still have the whip by the time of the GE). Only in seats where the Conservatives failed to stand a candidate might the Brexit Party have a chance of winning.kle4 said:
Quite. His actions would indicate that he perhaps wants Brexit delivered in theory, but not at any cost to himself. Cutting an actual deal undercuts his power over the tory right.Recidivist said:
You make the big assumption that Farage wants Brexit delivered.dyedwoolie said:
Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I thinkSouthamObserver said:Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.
Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?0 -
And that is the comment of someone who labels their own tribalism as 'principle'.Alanbrooke said:
Thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:
For plenty of people - myself included - “what you believe in” is in the broad region of Lib Dem, Green, or moderate Labour/Co-op.YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
If I lived in Walthamstow I would vote for Stella Creasy. If I lived in Brighton I would vote for Caroline Lucas. But I live in West Oxfordshire, so I’m a Lib Dem. (There is even one county division locally where I’d vote for the - excellent, moderate - Conservative.)
That is still “voting for what I believe in”. People’s politics don’t align as neatly to party boundaries as you appear to think, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with voting for the candidate close to your views with the best chance of winning.
You'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
You don't actually have any core values0 -
Agony for Boris and the Tories to come so very close to holding the seat despite everything.
Sticking with the convicted incumbent seems particularly costly but I can see the point that he had a strong local following etc - but surely someone in the local party activist base could have been put up?
But I think the Tories can take heart from the fact Farage so very clearly cost them the hold, and in a Leaver seat with a majority voting for pro Brexit candidates, surely even Brexiteers are not so thick as to see that voting Farage let in the most pro EU at any price candidate ? This result should help Tories underline that.
What it does mean of course is that the Tories are so utterly fucked unless a clean Brexit (with a deal) has happened by 31st Oct. Otherwise, we will in short order get Corbyn and a wrecked economy.
Is Boris Brexit, in whatever form, the lesser of two evils? That's what I'm still wrestling with.0 -
Well, I agree with that. There might be Labour/Green deals to do but Brighton Pavilion was a Labour seat the Greens gained, and Labour remain the main alternative.kle4 said:
I respected Corbyn for not standing aside in Brighton. It was a seat theyd like to win and it doesnt belong to Lucas.IanB2 said:
Typical Labour - all take and no give, and taking things personally when someone wants to stand for their own party. Labour promised to change the voting system and then didn't - that was the betrayal.NickPalmer said:
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.kle4 said:
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
At least the LibDems stood down in Brighton and Skipton last time, and will surely offer the Greens a better deal this time.
What did Labour ever offer?
But there are plenty of areas where Labour has no chance but the Greens have a bit of a local authority base and plausible candidate. The blanket NEVER approach is tribal... and it appears did for Mr Palmer by his account.
0 -
Morning all,
Good win for LibDems, albeit close. Dodds could be facing her electorate again in a couple of months though.0 -
My takes from this
1. The lib dems did an excellent job.
2. It shows the power of electoral alliances in certain seats (and especially by-elections)
3. The Brexit Party is now actually harming the Tories, and therefore Brexit
4. Labour is nowhere (at least under Corbyn).
5. The Tories are in trouble
0 -
Again misinterpreting my words. I concede Boris is the parties best chance at present but no deal sees my divorce from Boris and the partysurbiton19 said:
Seamlessly, you are becoming a BJ fan !Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
But to be fair, labour supporters have far more to worry about and need to do something about their very own albatross, one Jeremy Corbyn0 -
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party0 -
-
One of these is true but not both, I'm not sure which...Slackbladder said:
4. Labour is nowhere (at least under Corbyn).
5. The Tories are in trouble0 -
You’ll get a wrecked economy under both evils there is not a lesser one between the two.Bob__Sykes said:Agony for Boris and the Tories to come so very close to holding the seat despite everything.
Sticking with the convicted incumbent seems particularly costly but I can see the point that he had a strong local following etc - but surely someone in the local party activist base could have been put up?
But I think the Tories can take heart from the fact Farage so very clearly cost them the hold, and in a Leaver seat with a majority voting for pro Brexit candidates, surely even Brexiteers are not so thick as to see that voting Farage let in the most pro EU at any price candidate ? This result should help Tories underline that.
What it does mean of course is that the Tories are so utterly fucked unless a clean Brexit (with a deal) has happened by 31st Oct. Otherwise, we will in short order get Corbyn and a wrecked economy.
Is Boris Brexit, in whatever form, the lesser of two evils? That's what I'm still wrestling with.
0 -
I think both can be true...look at the vote shares of the opinion polls and the fall in vote shares in the byelections.edmundintokyo said:
One of these is true but not both, I'm not sure which...Slackbladder said:
4. Labour is nowhere (at least under Corbyn).
5. The Tories are in trouble
0 -
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.0 -
Hasn't Swinson confirmed she would continue to try to stop Brexit even if the people say they dont want to? So the policy is not to offer the chance to stop brexit, it is to stop Brexit if the people give the wrong answer again?IanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
Certainly the logic of the resistance to brexit as a national catastrophe makes the claimed distinction of merely wanting to offer the chance to stop it unconvincing.0 -
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it0 -
Yeah, PB comments would be a bit long if we all had to enumerate our core beliefs in every single comment... 😝Alanbrooke said:
so what are they ? you didnt mention any just who you wouldnt vote for.El_Capitano said:
That isAlanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others may mind at such for not making the least worst calculation most of us make, but fair play voting positively even when you know it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values
(a) bollocks; I would rather sandpaper my eyeballs than vote for Corbyn or, come to mention it, Tom Watson
(b) breathtakingly presumptive; just because my core values don’t align with what you think politics should be about (let me guess, reducing taxes and a strong military?) you decide I don’t have any
(c) a perfect example of how Boris’s no-deal, no-surrender Conservatives are retreating into irrelevance for much of the country
and then you went all ranty
Broadly: a strong social safety net, a moderated market economy, well-funded state education to boost people’s life chances, and action to prevent us all burning up in a ball of flame. Which I think is all fairly standard centrist stuff, certainly at home in the social liberal wing of the Lib Dems, and nothing that your average Labour/Co-op or moderate Green would have a problem with.
Like anyone, I do have particular issues I feel strongly about - for me, sustainable transport and special education. Labour’s “inclusive” policy on the latter (a legacy of the loathsome Blunkett) would make it difficult for me to vote for them except where there’s an excellent local candidate - a Creasy or a Phillips. Similarly, the Conservatives’ support for road-building rules them out, but if the Oxfordshire County Council cycling champion (a Conservative) stood for Parliament I’d vote for her. (She did last time, but not in our constituency sadly, where the incumbent is a very personable but very right-wing ERG type.)0 -
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it0 -
If there was a second referendum it would be written into law to implement the selected choice. Much better revoke and let politics take its course.kle4 said:
Hasn't Swinson confirmed she would continue to try to stop Brexit even if the people say they dont want to? So the policy is not to offer the chance to stop brexit, it is to stop Brexit if the people give the wrong answer again?IanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
Certainly the logic of the resistance to brexit as a national catastrophe makes the claimed distinction of merely wanting to offer the chance to stop it unconvincing.0 -
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.0 -
This was a pretty big swing to the LDs. That constituency poll a couple of weeks ago really ramped them and probably helped a lot with getting the Conservative vote out.
Also Chris Davies probably had a lot of voters in his corner who thought he’d been punished enough. Can’t see that he’d want to put himself through another GE - but the Tories might not find be able to a replacement as popular.
I think anyone seeing a Boris bounce here is kidding themselves.
Though I agree it’s a likely candidate to return to Con in a GE. Probably against the prevailing trends - just like Richmond!0 -
That's fine so long as they drop the ridiculous FinalSay branding.Richard_Tyndall said:
Lucas has made explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it0 -
If the OMRLP are neutral on Brexit, can they even call themselves loonies at all?HYUFD said:
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.1 -
AFAICT “Final Say” was invented by the Independent newspaper to give their campaign a distinct name from “People’s Vote”. Just marketing, on other words.kle4 said:
That's fine so long as they drop the ridiculous FinalSay branding.Richard_Tyndall said:
Lucas has made explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it0 -
Bear in mind that you can only get to 48.8% for the Remain parties by including all of the Labour vote. I don't think either side can reasonably lay claim to that vote in these circumstances.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.
0 -
the stuff you call centrist is pretty much the basis of most of the major political parties as they will all overlap in certain places.El_Capitano said:
Yeah, PB comments would be a bit long if we all had to enumerate our core beliefs in every single comment... 😝Alanbrooke said:
so what are they ? you didnt mention any just who you wouldnt vote for.El_Capitano said:
That isAlanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others ma it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values
country
and then you went all ranty
Broadly: a strong social safety net, a moderated market economy, well-funded state education to boost people’s life chances, and action to prevent us all burning up in a ball of flame. Which I think is all fairly standard centrist stuff, certainly at home in the social liberal wing of the Lib Dems, and nothing that your average Labour/Co-op or moderate Green would have a problem with.
Like anyone, I do have particular issues I feel strongly about - for me, sustainable transport and special education. Labour’s “inclusive” policy on the latter (a legacy of the loathsome Blunkett) would make it difficult for me to vote for them except where there’s an excellent local candidate - a Creasy or a Phillips. Similarly, the Conservatives’ support for road-building rules them out, but if the Oxfordshire County Council cycling champion (a Conservative) stood for Parliament I’d vote for her. (She did last time, but not in our constituency sadly, where the incumbent is a very personable but very right-wing ERG type.)
I note you dont mention more localised govt, decent infrastructure ( youre against) and fair taxation. which would be my priorities above the base line.0 -
There is no aspect of Brexit that isn't "just marketing"El_Capitano said:AFAICT “Final Say” was invented by the Independent newspaper to give their campaign a distinct name from “People’s Vote”. Just marketing, on other words.
1 -
A complete triumph for the OMRLP at Brecon and Radnor by-election. Agreeing to loan the LibDems 13,000 votes in return for a commitment to outlaw politicians cuddling chickens was a masterstroke.
Reject the unofficial and misdirected lunacy of the Boris Junta. Get the real deal - OMRLP.0 -
Mr. Meeks, do the Loonies retain their policy of having the EU adopt the pound and turning the UK into an offshore tax haven?0
-
Why not ? Many Tories and Kippers never accepted our membership of the EU and have been working for the UK to leave the EU for , at least, 20 years ! Why can't we Remainers campaign to re-join even if it takes 10 years ! You do not propose to shut down democracy , do you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it
0 -
Only a lunatic would be neutral on Brexit?AlastairMeeks said:
If the OMRLP are neutral on Brexit, can they even call themselves loonies at all?HYUFD said:
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.
Ah. Corbyn...0 -
Be interesting to see what happens in Ceridigion, which is a 4-way marginal including Plaid and the LDsPulpstar said:
Ynys Mons maybeEl_Capitano said:Good news for Plaid. I expect the Lib Dems to reciprocate in a couple of seats (e.g. Arfon) which should make it easier for them to hold.
0 -
If you analyse the overall Loony vote, you will find the OMRLP easily beat UKIP, who were claiming to be the real Loonies !JackW said:A complete triumph for the OMRLP at Brecon and Radnor by-election. Agreeing to loan the LibDems 13,000 votes in return for a commitment to outlaw politicians cuddling chickens was a masterstroke.
Reject the unofficial and misdirected lunacy of the Boris Junta. Get the real deal - OMRLP.
0 -
Morning all
First, congratulations to Jane Dodds on her win and kudos to the LD by-election team who, after a few years in the wilderness, are back with a vengeance.
Second, kudos to the NC Politics poll which was hauntingly accurate. As we've seen, Boris has taken about half the BP votes but made few inroads elsewhere. Had May still been PM, I suspect Dodds would have won by nearly 5,000 and that was my early prediction but the coming of Boris has changed the dynamic and re-vitalised the Conservatives,.
The Con-LD swing of around 12% fits nicely into the sweep of national polling but of course there's plenty for the Conservatives to be happy about it in the result. They are down from 2017 but with the opposition fragmented, they are still very much in the driving seat and will know as BP is squeezed further their chances of an overall majority increase.
This by-election was never about Labour so there's little to be said apart from the fact they'll be pleased to keep their deposit. As for BP, another modest effort and a salutary lesson parties without ground strength and organisation will always struggle in contests like these.
Finally, my profound thanks to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for standing aside which has undoubtedly made the difference between victory and defeat.0 -
Lotta talk about (or lack thereof) the Boris bounce in B&R. What about the Mogg effect?
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1157070538583527426?s=200 -
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1157102181461327872TheWhiteRabbit said:Just think, without a remain alliance that could have been a Con hold.
0 -
Read my comment. All I was doing was expressing her clearly stated position. I made no comment on it other than that. If you do want further comment it would be to point out that with Lucas' attitude, a second referendum is clearly useless as it is not intended to end the issue, merely prolong the disagreement.surbiton19 said:
Why not ? Many Tories and Kippers never accepted our membership of the EU and have been working for the UK to leave the EU for , at least, 20 years ! Why can't we Remainers campaign to re-join even if it takes 10 years ! You do not propose to shut down democracy , do you ?Richard_Tyndall said:
Lucas has made it explicit in interview on the BBC that she would not accept the result of a second referendum if it was still in favour of Leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not really. That is a mechanism to stop brexitIanB2 said:
LibDem policy is to offer the people the chance to stop Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conceding Boris is the party's best chance at present is not the same as cheerleader. He scares the socks of me and I wish it were different but I want brexit to happen only because that is democracy. I could not support lib dem policy of stopping brexitIanB2 said:
Suddenly you're a Bozo cheerleader, having previously threatened to resign if he got elected?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
Boris lost votes as well as gaining them.
Whoever suggested the 60% was an idiot who had clearly been nowhere near the constituency.
The starting point for this by-election, just two years recent, was a massive Tory majority of over 8,000 and a winning margin of nearly 20% of the vote. Judged by the normal standards, it was a significant swing.
No deal results in my divorce from Boris and the party
How can Swinson and for that matter Caroline Lucas openly state that even if a second referendum confirmed brexit they would still do everything to stop it0 -
Ha ha ha. That screwed Truss !Scott_P said:
0 -
He was present at Brexit, but not involved.ydoethur said:
Only a lunatic would be neutral on Brexit?AlastairMeeks said:
If the OMRLP are neutral on Brexit, can they even call themselves loonies at all?HYUFD said:
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.
Ah. Corbyn...0 -
I’m 1000% for decent infrastructure. Just, for me, that means cycleways and railways. It’s crackers that we’re now on the fourth South Midlands east-west road upgrade since the 90s (A43, A14, A421, Expressway) yet we still haven’t broken ground on East-West Rail. The Lib Dems oppose the Expressway and support EWR.Alanbrooke said:
the stuff you call centrist is pretty much the basis of most of the major political parties as they will all overlap in certain places.El_Capitano said:
Yeah, PB comments would be a bit long if we all had to enumerate our core beliefs in every single comment... 😝Alanbrooke said:
so what are they ? you didnt mention any just who you wouldnt vote for.El_Capitano said:
That isAlanbrooke said:
thats simply tribalismEl_Capitano said:YBarddCwsc said:
This idea that you need to vote "tactically" is all due to the wretched LibDem activists.kle4 said:
So do I. Others ma it wont work.
You should always vote for what you believe in.
you'll vote for anyome whos not a conservative,
you dont actually have any core values
country
and then you went all ranty
Broadly: a strong social safety net, a moderated market economy, well-funded state education to boost people’s life chances, and action to prevent us all burning up in a ball of flame. Which I think is all fairly standard centrist stuff, certainly at home in the social liberal wing of the Lib Dems, and nothing that your average Labour/Co-op or moderate Green would have a problem with.
Like anyone, I do have particular issues I feel strongly about - for me, sustainable transport and special education. Labour’s “inclusive” policy on the latter (a legacy of the loathsome Blunkett) would make it difficult for me to vote for them except where there’s an excellent local candidate - a Creasy or a Phillips. Similarly, the Conservatives’ support for road-building rules them out, but if the Oxfordshire County Council cycling champion (a Conservative) stood for Parliament I’d vote for her. (She did last time, but not in our constituency sadly, where the incumbent is a very personable but very right-wing ERG type.)
I note you dont mention more localised govt, decent infrastructure ( youre against) and fair taxation. which would be my priorities above the base line.0 -
-
Not really. In the privacy of the polling booth, where it matters, Labour voters can vote for the most likely-to-win Remain candidate. The Labour voters in B&R did precisely that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again misinterpreting my words. I concede Boris is the parties best chance at present but no deal sees my divorce from Boris and the partysurbiton19 said:
Seamlessly, you are becoming a BJ fan !Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
But to be fair, labour supporters have far more to worry about and need to do something about their very own albatross, one Jeremy Corbyn
0 -
Long-term average swing against a government in a by-election is 5%
Tory to LibDem swing in Brecon & Radnorshire was 12%0 -
Not really. It's a marginal between those parties with a small electorate and a highish ceiling on the Labour/Tory vote.not_on_fire said:
Be interesting to see what happens in Ceridigion, which is a 4-way marginal including Plaid and the LDsPulpstar said:
Ynys Mons maybeEl_Capitano said:Good news for Plaid. I expect the Lib Dems to reciprocate in a couple of seats (e.g. Arfon) which should make it easier for them to hold.
Labour were 9 points behind the Liberal Democrats in 2017, but that's as close as they're ever going to get to retaking the seat.0 -
I expect the LDs will suggest that everyone stand aside for the "local" LD candidate, who is an 8 foot tall alien from Proxima Centauri & looks like an enormous horse.not_on_fire said:
Be interesting to see what happens in Ceridigion, which is a 4-way marginal including Plaid and the LDsPulpstar said:
Ynys Mons maybeEl_Capitano said:Good news for Plaid. I expect the Lib Dems to reciprocate in a couple of seats (e.g. Arfon) which should make it easier for them to hold.
0 -
Johnson also visited Brecon earlier this week but did not venture into the town centre, leaving onlookers who had waited for him in the rain angry and frustrated
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one
Maybe, like Trump, Boris doesn't do rain?
0 -
One wouldn't wish to split hairs on the "Loon Scale" but UKIP are barking mad whereas the OMRLP are gold standard Loonies which is a whole different game.surbiton19 said:
If you analyse the overall Loony vote, you will find the OMRLP easily beat UKIP, who were claiming to be the real Loonies !JackW said:A complete triumph for the OMRLP at Brecon and Radnor by-election. Agreeing to loan the LibDems 13,000 votes in return for a commitment to outlaw politicians cuddling chickens was a masterstroke.
Reject the unofficial and misdirected lunacy of the Boris Junta. Get the real deal - OMRLP.0 -
Tbf Galloway seems like a reminder of saner, more ordered times.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/1157046647559471104?s=200 -
The only significance of this result is the consequences in the House of Commons. It is therefore pretty disastrous for the Tories even if they did better than expected and can be reasonably confident of winning it back.
Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.0 -
The centrist/left anti-Tory vote was immensely efficient in B&R. The No Deal vote slightly less so. That leaves the Tories having to push even further into BXP territory and while hoping Corbyn Labour remains as utterly useless as it is now.
But the more the Tories court the BXP vote and the more useless Corbyn seems, the more the anti-Tory vote will be motivated and the less a realistic threat claims of a Corbyn-led government will be.
These are highly volatile, immensely fluid times. One thing is certain: the Tories desperately need Corbyn to stay in place. Luckily for them he will.0 -
As Brexit's Bessy Mate, Corbyn has been very much involved....rottenborough said:
He was present at Brexit, but not involved.ydoethur said:
Only a lunatic would be neutral on Brexit?AlastairMeeks said:
If the OMRLP are neutral on Brexit, can they even call themselves loonies at all?HYUFD said:
Indeed, Powys was 53.7% Leave and 46.3% Remain, last night Leave parties got 51.3% and Remain parties got 48.8% (given the MRLP are neutral on Brexit), so still no major changeRichard_Tyndall said:
I have no interest in the tribal party politics of this. I am just pleased that the 'Remain Alliance' clearly failed to gain an absolute majority while the parties of Leave clearly outpolled them by a significant margin and did actually achieve a narrow absolute majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:My take from last night is that the Country remains deadlocked
The margin of win by the lib dems was very much on the low side of expectations (didn't someone suggest 60% vote share) and of course the postal votes were available before Boris came into office
To me this is pointing to Boris laying down the gauntlet and calling a GE the minute his position comes under threat
Indeed it must be the worst nightmare for scores of labour mps who face the double whammy of a lib dem surge taking London seats and the conservatives doing the same in leave areas
I would concede, however, that Boris at this moment in time seems the best person to achieve a GE result, even if a minority one
As you say, there is nothing at all in this result to indicate that attitudes have changed in any significant way towards Brexit, even in the face of a No Deal.
Ah. Corbyn...0 -
This sounds sensible - even plausible. Do you have any influence in the LDs?IanB2 said:
My hope would be that the LibDems, Greens (and Renew), with some support from the nationalists, sign up to some sort of accord committed to the three priorities of Responding to the environmental threat of Climate Change, Opposing Brexit, and Political Reform.edmundintokyo said:
They should copy the US "Green New Deal" tactic and demand the following bold steps to deal with the Climate Emergency:IanB2 said:
That was Davey's plan. Swinson wants to build the Remain Alliance.No_Offence_Alan said:The Lib Dems just need to go full on "climate emergency" in their campaigning and do to the Greens what hey did to the CHUKs.
* End imprisonment for possession of illegal drugs for personal use
* £300m for community policing in England and Wales
* 1p in the pound on income tax to raise £6bn for NHS and social care services
* Proportional Representation
* EU referendum
Handled right, it could be quite a moment - particularly if it is choreographed with some more defections from Tory and Labour.0 -
Is that the swing in gov't held seats? I can't believe that it is.IanB2 said:Long-term average swing against a government in a by-election is 5%
Tory to LibDem swing in Brecon & Radnorshire was 12%0 -
A light aircraft towing a banner with lettering too small to read at minimum allowed flying altitudes doesn't appear to be an effective campaigning tool.stodge said:Morning all
First, congratulations to Jane Dodds on her win and kudos to the LD by-election team who, after a few years in the wilderness, are back with a vengeance.
Second, kudos to the NC Politics poll which was hauntingly accurate. As we've seen, Boris has taken about half the BP votes but made few inroads elsewhere. Had May still been PM, I suspect Dodds would have won by nearly 5,000 and that was my early prediction but the coming of Boris has changed the dynamic and re-vitalised the Conservatives,.
The Con-LD swing of around 12% fits nicely into the sweep of national polling but of course there's plenty for the Conservatives to be happy about it in the result. They are down from 2017 but with the opposition fragmented, they are still very much in the driving seat and will know as BP is squeezed further their chances of an overall majority increase.
This by-election was never about Labour so there's little to be said apart from the fact they'll be pleased to keep their deposit. As for BP, another modest effort and a salutary lesson parties without ground strength and organisation will always struggle in contests like these.
Finally, my profound thanks to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for standing aside which has undoubtedly made the difference between victory and defeat.0 -
Where Lord Sugar is wrong is that Chris WIlliamson isn't in the Shadow Cabinet.Theuniondivvie said:Tbf Galloway seems like a reminder of saner, more ordered times.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/1157046647559471104?s=20
Yet.0 -
The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not the arithmetic but the politics. Putting any deal before parliament that is not seen as a victory over the EU will definitively turn him into May 2.0 in the eyes of Brexiteers.DavidL said:Normally the switching of a single seat would be of no moment whatsoever but in these febrile times with such a notional majority it is a problem for Boris. His task of getting a deal through the Commons is now even harder than it was for Mrs May. This must be a concern.
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