politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.

We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.

British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.

I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents

I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.

None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.

I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister

I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.

http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/a3/
http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/

It really did happen

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

dixiedean said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.

Jeez Khaleez.

I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.

Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.

If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.

There'll be an element of that no doubt, and the fact of being out may well break some of the current resistors to Brexit even as others dream of a very quick rejoining. I'm hesistant to think it will be as large a reaction as you suggest, only for the reason that even if we regard such difficulties as exist as an existential, external threat to the tribe, a large portion simply will not be able to ignore that it is the people currently at the top of the tribe who got us here after 3 years of pissing about, even when they had the numbers to see it through.

That sounds more reasonable.
Byronic has a facility for superficially persuasive scenarios which is singular.

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

10pm. Yep, you're about a bottle in.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Imagine thinking the EU is the aggressor.

For as long as they keep insisting they can either annex NI or have the undemocratic backstop imposed on us they are.

Haha

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.

Are they big users of Facebook in B & R?

I suspect so.

I thought we established the other day that most of B & R has appalling Internet access?

It’s Powys, not St Kilda. Facebook will be fine. Some rural areas would have difficulty streaming Netflix in HD.

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.

Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.

The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?

The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer

Mexicanpete said:

Byronic said:

dixiedean said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.

Jeez Khaleez.

I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.

Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.

If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.

Who is the aggressor? The evil EU or the liars who claimed project fear was an imaginary construct proposed by lèft-wing traitors?

dixiedean said:

To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London.
Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.

I too would have assumed it referred to London. But according to WP: ”The Blitz was a German bombing campaign against Britain in 1940 and 1941, during the Second World War. The term was first used by the British press and is the German word for 'lightning'.”

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.

Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.

The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?

The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer

So what will they do if no one can form a government without their backing and yet Corbyn and Boris remain leaders of their respective parties? I'm to believe they would not even consider backing the former, no matter what he offered in return? I don't buy it.

solarflare said:

What's the current record for the shortest gap between a by-election and a subsequent general election?

Surely Liverpool Edge Hill (?) in 1979 won by David Alton. Took place almost immediately after the No Confidence motion had been passed and a general election announced.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The last few days it has been 24/7 Boris and Corbyn has gone 'absent without leave'

As I have maintained for a few days the next six weeks are going to be all Boris, his ministers who are working, and their nearly daily summits

Polling through August and the trends, especially when so many are on holiday, will be very interesting

As for B & R I expect a Lib Dem gain but I would not put money on it

Though paradoxically, the Labour vote often goes up while out of the news...

https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1156320194756796418

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1156265731069100032

Theresa May on holiday in Lake Garda after handing over to Boris

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7302741/Theresa-shops-jewellery-Lake-Garda-leaves-thought-Brexit-her.html

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.

We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.

.

I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents

I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.

None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.

I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister

I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.

http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/a3/
http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/

That is a splendid link.
...one landed at the hamlet of Hubberton Green, Sowerby (near Halifax), just behind Little Toothill Farm. There were no immediate casualties, the farmer, Mr John Carter, was blown out of his bed and one end of the farm needed rebuilding. However his wife died some months later, her demise possibly brought on by the shock...

...Mr Booth also dug out a covering letter from the War Damage Commission dated December 28th 1944 and a claim form called a C1. The form should have been completed and returned for compensation but wasn’t, perhaps because it was up to the property owner to make good the repairs before any payout would be made, and that could take time.

Below; Detail of the War Damage Commission form C1.
It refers to “Blast from flying bomb in field” and underneath says “Crater in ploughed field – stretch of dry stone wall”

Gardenwalker said:

What on Earth does ex-Guido Fawkes reporter know about “public sector reform”?

How to destroy it?

TGOHF said:

Farage fewmin about Cummings in the Telegraph.

Titter.

'Asked by one party member what he would do with the NHS, Johnson said the health service was “not getting the kind of support, and indeed the kind of changes and management, that it needs”, suggesting he would aim to overhaul the service.
He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”.
Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.

Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.

The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?

The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer

But Corbyn won't accept being ousted and even if he is he has sufficient numbers to deny Starmer.

Foxy said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.

I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.

It looks like one of my better predictions.

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Gardenwalker said:

Lots of discussion about the scale of the pound’s devaluation, or even whether it could be said to have devalued.

I found this most eloquent:...

Bbbut... I posted actual numbers! With citations! Did this not convince? Let me post them again.

Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010, and the rates for the decade previously (see previous posts for sources).

1980-01-02: 2.2330
1990-01-02: 1.6145
2000-01-04: 1.6352
2010-01-04: 1.6121

2010-01-01: 1.6150
2011-01-01: 1.5610
2012-01-01: 1.5507
2013-01-01: 1.6245
2014-01-01: 1.6554
2015-01-01: 1.5571
2016-01-01: 1.4740
2017-01-01: 1.2300
2018-01-01: 1.3490
2019-01-01: 1.2733

4pm today: 1.2232
Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)
Approx 8:30pm BST: 1.2161 (spot)

Is that not convincing? Is it the graph thing?

What are you supposed to be convincing us about?

That there's been a fall [at the referendum result]? This is not disputed.
That there's been a fall now? Your data contradicts that, the spot now is not far off New Year and extremely close to 1/1/17
That the fall is dramatic? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, in fact its very minor compared to the 80s.
That the fall matters? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.
That the fall is bad news? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.

You're cherry picking. I posted a range of numbers so that people could judge the trend. Since the mid-Eighties (bear in mind that 1980-01-02 is the end of the Seventies) the rough value of GBP/USD has been £1=$1.6, or around there. Sometimes it was more, sometimes it was less, but it was around there. The day after referendum day it slid to $1.35, then after May's conference speech it slid to $1.2, then it recovered to around $1.3 to $1.35, then when Parliament rejected the deal and May resigned it went to around $1.25 until Boris became PM, and now it's downwards again.

If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.

It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.

Which was my point.

edit

dixiedean said:

To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London.
Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.

Strangely, one of my fathers memories of the war is being taken by my grandfather to a hilltop near his house in Wigan to watch Liverpool burn. It may even have been the same raid.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/28/voting-intention-con-31-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-13-

Now, you know you are cherry picking one of 4 polls released on the same day. Strangely, the best of the 4 for Boris.
The average of those polls was Con 30 Lab 25 LD 20 and Brex 14.5.

HYUFD said:

TGOHF said:

Farage fewmin about Cummings in the Telegraph.

Titter.

'Asked by one party member what he would do with the NHS, Johnson said the health service was “not getting the kind of support, and indeed the kind of changes and management, that it needs”, suggesting he would aim to overhaul the service.
He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”.
Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

A massive health spending splurge from Boris/Cummings might be smart politics. Wasn't Farage once filmed on Fox News banging on about scrapping the NHS? If so, then contrasting Farage's mean, far-right ogre against Boris's Florence Nightingale should pay dividends.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.

Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.

The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?

The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer

But Corbyn won't accept being ousted and even if he is he has sufficient numbers to deny Starmer.

Yet not to ensure he becomes PM if the LDs and CUK refuse to back him in another hung parliament

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

It was Farage drifting off the scene which took much of the impetus away after 2016. He won't be so daft as to scarper a second time.

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The last few days it has been 24/7 Boris and Corbyn has gone 'absent without leave'

As I have maintained for a few days the next six weeks are going to be all Boris, his ministers who are working, and their nearly daily summits

Polling through August and the trends, especially when so many are on holiday, will be very interesting

As for B & R I expect a Lib Dem gain but I would not put money on it

Though paradoxically, the Labour vote often goes up while out of the news...

Strange that.......

Gardenwalker said:

What on Earth does ex-Guido Fawkes reporter know about “public sector reform”?

https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1156262529674436613?s=21

Spouting off on radio, or in newspapers, or in a single issue referendum is one thing, running complex government departments quite another. I fear we are about to find out that the skill sets are not exactly transferable.

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London.
Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.

Strangely, one of my fathers memories of the war is being taken by my grandfather to a hilltop near his house in Wigan to watch Liverpool burn. It may even have been the same raid.

Gosh. What a coincidence. Wigan too. The hill was Longshoot in Whelley. But that would be too much of a coincidence.

Tabman said:

another_richard said:

Pro_Rata said:

Foxy said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.

I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.

It looks like one of my better predictions.

I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.

Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.

Still doesn't make any sense.

The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.

We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.

British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.

I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents

I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.

None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.

I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister

I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.

http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/a3/
http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/

It really did happen

I really do believe you. It must have been a sight when they were launched. The modern-day equivalent would be this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhj8ITvp-pw

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.

Are you Philip Hammond ?

No, just someone equally sensible.

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.

Yep.

Tabman said:

another_richard said:

Tabman said:

another_richard said:

Pro_Rata said:

Foxy said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.

I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.

It looks like one of my better predictions.

I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.

Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.

Still doesn't make any sense.

The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.

It makes perfect sense. Remain and leave are the anode and cathode placed in the chemical soup of British society; it's crystallizing it out into two distinct lumps

Well that might be a good analogy but the Nottinghamshire pit village wasn't.

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.

Are you Philip Hammond ?

No. I am.

This one fell within a mile or so of where I grew up, albeit much later. I only went across the fields in that direction a couple of times and I never knew about this.

Top links Mr Viewcode.

aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/then-v1-flying-bomb-site-matley-near-hyde/

another_richard said:

Tabman said:

another_richard said:

Tabman said:

another_richard said:

Pro_Rata said:

Foxy said:

Byronic said:

My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.

People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.

"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.

That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.

It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.

I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.

It looks like one of my better predictions.

I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.

Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.

Still doesn't make any sense.

The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.

It makes perfect sense. Remain and leave are the anode and cathode placed in the chemical soup of British society; it's crystallizing it out into two distinct lumps

Well that might be a good analogy but the Nottinghamshire pit village wasn't.

I'll take that as a compliment 🙂

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

They haven’t gone away you know.

https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21

Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.

Not if Boris delivers.

If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.

No as Boris will have won a majority precisely to enable him to deliver that Brexit, Deal or No Deal, probably in an October general election

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

And Gloomy.

Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.

You are right. The trouble is, Boris has taken the opposite approach: putting his head in the sand and hoping that new solutions sprout spontaneously out of the desert.

No, Boris has finally committed to Brexit on October 31st Deal or No Deal

North Korea fires multiple projectiles

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49173514

Philip_Thompson said:

Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.

Pro_Rata said:

This one fell within a mile or so of where I grew up, albeit much later. I only went across the fields in that direction a couple of times and I never knew about this.

Top links Mr Viewcode.

aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/then-v1-flying-bomb-site-matley-near-hyde/

Thank you

Philip_Thompson said:

No he's picked up Maggie's rebate winning handbag, something May failed conspicuously to do.

First leader of this country in 30 years to stand up to Europe and put Britain first. We might not be leaving if others had followed in her footsteps before now.

Maggie's 'rebate winning handbag' was a veto on the EU budget. Boris has what, exactly, to wield?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.

There will be no reason to get to Stage 3 because we are scrappy and adaptable and can succeed in or out of the EU. Problems will be faced, will be rolled into problems everyone has anyway. Benefits will be taken, but your side will take them for granted and refuse to view it as a benefit of Brexit.

There isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland full of people wondering what went wrong.

Tabman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Talking of WWII bombing mayhem, my parents met in the war when my father was a student at Birmingham University. When he was courting my mother, he invited her to a student dance. The evening was interrupted by an absolutely massive German bombing attack. (It might well have been the one which Churchill knew about in advance through the Enigma intercepts, but couldn't do anything about for fear of tipping off the Germans that Enigma code had been broken.) M

That was the Coventry raid in November 1940

Ah yes, I think you are right. This was probably late October 1940.