Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
Could they just about hang on? Maybe, but plus side Boris bounce, negative side convicted criminal.
It would be a major blow for the LDs - even with remainer backup, not winning the seat. I still expect them to, but maybe the Tories won't be humiliated.
Of course if they win they'll definitely go for a GE. And if they lose they're majority is reduced once again to the point they probably need a GE.
If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.
I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.
If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).
What struck me in the Interviews With The Provincials is how many of them think: No Deal won't be so bad. And if it is, well fuck it, we went through the Blitz, we can cope with a Welsh Lamb blockade.
I do not agree with these sentiments. I think Brexit could be significantly and pointlessly bad for the Union, and the British economy - certainly over the long term - but there is no doubt this national mood is building. We can cope. Bring it on. Etc.
Yes, sadly I sense there is that feeling building around the country
Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
Yes, say the general trend in the GB wide polls happens in B&R then using the baseline of the NCP poll you could see something like Con 36% Lib Dems 40%, then at 26s it is value to back the blue meanies.
Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
It’s not impossible.
It’s a very hard seat to poll. It’s a hard seat even to deliver. Even in the rare cases where the homes are close together, the Welsh have laid them out randomly and numbered them eccentrically, just to keep the outlanders guessing. Or simply avoided giving their home a number and chosen a high scoring scrabble word instead.
Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?
The whole point about sheep is that they tend not to worry.
It was suggested here the other day that the LibDems in B&R have become shy of mentioning tariffs. That might be significant. Trouble is I've been too busy to think about what it might signify and whether it helps TSE's bet.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
An interesting anecdotal comment from someone I’ve never heard talk politics before. Hard working, family, lots of driving around for work - blue collar role living north of London
“I like Boris. He makes me laugh”
That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
Personally I thought the “remain alliance” was a mistake. A view reinforced by the suggestion, if true, that Lib Dem’s are downplaying the issue in their campaign (which, again if true, must leave the Greens/plaid feeling a bit miffed). The by-Election was called to give the electorate an opportunity to judge whether their MP retained their support as their representative. It is understandable if many, having instinctively wanted to vote “no”, have nevertheless ended up supporting him as a result of being told that they can’t do so without also withdrawing their support for Brexit.
I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
The Tory remainers mention the MP’s misdemeanours as an additional reason why they might switch their vote. The Tory leavers aren’t bothered, more concerned with whether voting Tory or BXP Ltd. is the most effective pro-Brexit vote. Both Tory and BXP Ltd. campaigns are relying heavily on direct mail, so it is hard to read how this is playing out.
I wonder if there's a bit of a sympathy vote too - I felt myself that his removal was harash, and you wouldn't call me a Tory.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYOND
I think the comment is “south of the river and north of the park”
Dominic Cummings does not matter. I've just seen his comments referred to on the previous thread, and find it hard to believe a single vote will be swayed by these remarks from a back-room boffin few could pick out of a police line-up.
And with MPs on holiday, Jeremy Corbyn cannot even use them at PMQs.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYOND
I think the comment is “south of the river and north of the park”
I have updated it on the basis of "Prime London Residential" - the modern realtors' concept of extremely desirable London property, which, post-hard-Brexit, will probably consist of Buckingham Palace and your house.
Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
I would say they have a better chance than the current odds suggest. All polls are snapshots and the polls we had at the weekend showing the Boris bounce were like a snapshot of a bouncing ball, you cannot tell it's trajectory, it could still be on the way up, it may have reached it's peak or it could already be on a downward trajectory. My guess is that the polls were too soon to catch it at it's zenith.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
An interesting anecdotal comment from someone I’ve never heard talk politics before. Hard working, family, lots of driving around for work - blue collar role living north of London
“I like Boris. He makes me laugh”
That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
Well in that case BJ should call a GE! At the moment he is acting like a chicken as well as posing with them. Johnson has no mandate for a No Deal Brexit.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
Haven’t been following discussions - what’s the view on how the “no deal marketing campaign” is going to be pitched? “Project fear”, playing it straight, or pro no deal propaganda (bearing in mind, depending on your viewpoint, that the second could coincide with one of the other two.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
Checking my diary, Parliament returns on the 80th anniversary of Chamberlain's declaration of war on Germany, Brexiteers love a good old WWII analogy.
'I am speaking to you from the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street.
This morning the British Ambassador in Berlin handed the German Government a final note stating that unless we heard from them by 11 o'clock, that they were prepared at once to withdraw their backstop, a state of war would exist between us.
I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany.
You can imagine what a bitter blow it is to me that all my long struggle to win peace has failed. Yet I cannot believe that there is anything more or anything different that I could have done and that would have been more successful.
I wonder if information relating to the Postal Vores has been leaking out. I recall that Labour comfortably won the Postal Vote here at the July 1985 by election. That almost torpedoed Vincent Hanna's exit poll conducted for Newsnight - on the basis of which he predicted a Liberal majority of circa 2,000. In the event, it was under 600 following a recount.
If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Haven’t been following discussions - what’s the view on how the “no deal marketing campaign” is going to be pitched? “Project fear”, playing it straight, or pro no deal propaganda (bearing in mind, depending on your viewpoint, that the second could coincide with one of the other two.
It's going to be 'pro no deal propaganda' - the government is not going to spook the people with the likely truth.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
"British williness" perfectly captures the Leaver mindset.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
Checking my diary, Parliament returns on the 80th anniversary of Chamberlain's declaration of war on Germany, Brexiteers love a good old WWII analogy.
'I am speaking to you from the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street.
This morning the British Ambassador in Berlin handed the German Government a final note stating that unless we heard from them by 11 o'clock, that they were prepared at once to withdraw their backstop, a state of war would exist between us.
I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany.
You can imagine what a bitter blow it is to me that all my long struggle to win peace has failed. Yet I cannot believe that there is anything more or anything different that I could have done and that would have been more successful.
Scarily plausible... Let's hope someone points out to BoJo that Chamberlain was not Churchill.
Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.
I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.
Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?
Posterity records that the outcome for the sheep is decidedly suboptimal in either event.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
An interesting anecdotal comment from someone I’ve never heard talk politics before. Hard working, family, lots of driving around for work - blue collar role living north of London
“I like Boris. He makes me laugh”
That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
I get that. But that is a double edged sword. TM elicited a fair bit of sympathy when it went tits up for her. Her qualities of detail, diligence and hard work were noted. She did her best, but it wasn't good enough. If the best you start with is makes you laugh, then that can easily turn to laughing at rather than with.
The following is equally valid but doesn't carry the pejorative:
The pound sterling is now at its most competitive vs a basket of other currencies since Bloomberg began tracking it in 2004. More competitive than during financial crisis. More competitive than post referendum.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
This is a fundamental, low-IQ, idiotic misunderstanding of human nature. People LIKE and ENJOY suffering and hardship, as long as it is deemed communal and universal, i.e. something we ALL experience as a nation. See the way we react to extreme weather. See the way we revere the NHS. It is shit, but it is shit most of us experience in the UK.
"I have nothing to offer you but Blood Sweat and Tears"
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
+ 1 I think those who lived and served in WWII if reflected by someone I know well of that age group is complete bafflement on what we as a country will achieve through Brexit. Brexit is not going to solve any of the issues such as immigration and may well result in even greater agitation over the issue...
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
"British williness" perfectly captures the Leaver mindset.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
You have to be over 78 yo and have re-located out of London for anyone Byronic met to have survived the Blitz.
Haven’t been following discussions - what’s the view on how the “no deal marketing campaign” is going to be pitched? “Project fear”, playing it straight, or pro no deal propaganda (bearing in mind, depending on your viewpoint, that the second could coincide with one of the other two.
It's going to be 'pro no deal propaganda' - the government is not going to spook the people with the likely truth.
But the more they downplay the consequences, the greater the backlash if the risks aren’t spelled out.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
It’s not impossible.
It’s a very hard seat to poll. It’s a hard seat even to deliver. Even in the rare cases where the homes are close together, the Welsh have laid them out randomly and numbered them eccentrically, just to keep the outlanders guessing. Or simply avoided giving their home a number and chosen a high scoring scrabble word instead.
I see you have had the same experience as me, right down to the holiday parks.
B & R being competitive would augur well for the Tories in a snap GE, particularly if they've got say a 20 pt lead over the Brexit party. I'm on for all of ooh £2 at 26.0 but a thumping Lib Dem win wouldn't surprise me either.
Totally different constituency but everyone thought Oldham East and Saddleworth would be close till the votes started rolling in. We simply "don't know" here so 25-1 must be value.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
This is a fundamental, low-IQ, idiotic misunderstanding of human nature. People LIKE and ENJOY suffering and hardship, as long as it is deemed communal and universal, i.e. something we ALL experience as a nation. See the way we react to extreme weather. See the way we revere the NHS. It is shit, but it is shit most of us experience in the UK.
"I have nothing to offer you but Blood Sweat and Tears"
"Yay! Bring it ON!"
I think you meant low-EQ not low-IQ but you're wrong anyway.
1780's French peasants; 1980's Soviet citizens; 1960's NI catholics... all examples of people not accepting communual suffering for ever.
Haven’t been following discussions - what’s the view on how the “no deal marketing campaign” is going to be pitched? “Project fear”, playing it straight, or pro no deal propaganda (bearing in mind, depending on your viewpoint, that the second could coincide with one of the other two.
It's going to be 'pro no deal propaganda' - the government is not going to spook the people with the likely truth.
But the more they downplay the consequences, the greater the backlash if the risks aren’t spelled out.
Unlikely.
If the risks are overblown and it is a success then there will be no backlash.
If the risks are not and it is a disaster then no leaflet will prevent opprobrium.
10,00 signed the petition, probably 40,000 max will vote, mayve be 35,000, therefore a very high percentage of the voting public signed. Given the Labour vote of 18% is breaking heavily to the Lib Dem then if the latter hold their General Election 28% then they should be almost home, especially as there has been a swing to them since the General Election. Logic suggest they should win with something to spare, say 2,000 votes. Nevertheless the odds are so ridiculous that I have bet on the Conservative at 8-1. Remember doing similar at the Dunfermline by election when the Lib Dems were at 8-1 and Labour odds on. Be a another nice little pick up if this is kind of a repeat.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I remember my mother telling me that they got used to the V1 to a degree and only worried when the engine sound stopped.
She was actually trapped in an Anderson shelter after one bombing raid and had a lifelong problem with claustrophobia after that.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.
Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
You have to be over 78 yo and have re-located out of London for anyone Byronic met to have survived the Blitz.
The blitz did not just happen in London.
I was a baby but it was very real in our house every night
B & R being competitive would augur well for the Tories in a snap GE, particularly if they've got say a 20 pt lead over the Brexit party. I'm on for all of ooh £2 at 26.0 but a thumping Lib Dem win wouldn't surprise me either.
Totally different constituency but everyone thought Oldham East and Saddleworth would be close till the votes started rolling in. We simply "don't know" here so 25-1 must be value.
Peterborough is a more recent example of conventional wisdom being wrong.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
10,00 signed the petition, probably 40,000 max will vote, mayve be 35,000, therefore a very high percentage of the voting public signed. Given the Labour vote of 18% is breaking heavily to the Lib Dem then if the latter hold their General Election 28% then they should be almost home, especially as there has been a swing to them since the General Election. Logic suggest they should win with something to spare, say 2,000 votes. Nevertheless the odds are so ridiculous that I have bet on the Conservative at 8-1. Remember doing similar at the Dunfermline by election when the Lib Dems were at 8-1 and Labour odds on. Be a another nice little pick up if this is kind of a repeat.
I put a small bet on the Tories at 30 this morning when the PB lead came out, as our leads seem to move the BFE betting quite frequently, then laid it off just now at 15. Whoever wins now I’ll have a bottle of wine to celebrate or commiserate.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Apparently Boris visited an online firm in Brecon today. If the Tories really thought that either this was close, or that Johnson was an asset, wouldn't they have done a big rally / walkabout etc. in Brecon?
B & R being competitive would augur well for the Tories in a snap GE, particularly if they've got say a 20 pt lead over the Brexit party. I'm on for all of ooh £2 at 26.0 but a thumping Lib Dem win wouldn't surprise me either.
Totally different constituency but everyone thought Oldham East and Saddleworth would be close till the votes started rolling in. We simply "don't know" here so 25-1 must be value.
Peterborough is a more recent example of conventional wisdom being wrong.
That was genuinely close (I think that was the PB thinking), and laying the Brexit party was correct even if they'd have won there.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I remember my mother telling me that they got used to the V1 to a degree and only worried when the engine sound stopped.
She was actually trapped in an Anderson shelter after one bombing raid and had a lifelong problem with claustrophobia after that.
I was hidden under a steel table and have suffered severe claustrophobia if I have to cross an enclosed steel bridge, though some more than others
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYOND
I think the comment is “south of the river and north of the park”
I have updated it on the basis of "Prime London Residential" - the modern realtors' concept of extremely desirable London property, which, post-hard-Brexit, will probably consist of Buckingham Palace and your house.
Maintenance bill on Buck House is pretty steep though
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
You have to be over 78 yo and have re-located out of London for anyone Byronic met to have survived the Blitz.
The blitz did not just happen in London.
I was a baby but it was very real in our house every night
My apologies. I was under the impression the Blitz was a specific period during the Battle of Britain when Hitler turned to terror bombing London. I now realise I was wrong. You learn summat on PB every day. Nonetheless you need to 78 or older. Which is the age of my father, whose earliest memory is of walking up the hill to watch Liverpool burn. In the Liverpool Blitz I guess.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
I did , because it finished off the Unions as relevant
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
B & R being competitive would augur well for the Tories in a snap GE, particularly if they've got say a 20 pt lead over the Brexit party. I'm on for all of ooh £2 at 26.0 but a thumping Lib Dem win wouldn't surprise me either.
Totally different constituency but everyone thought Oldham East and Saddleworth would be close till the votes started rolling in. We simply "don't know" here so 25-1 must be value.
Peterborough is a more recent example of conventional wisdom being wrong.
That was genuinely close (I think that was the PB thinking), and laying the Brexit party was correct even if they'd have won there.
TBP were favourites right up to the polls closing, weren't they?
Haven’t been following discussions - what’s the view on how the “no deal marketing campaign” is going to be pitched? “Project fear”, playing it straight, or pro no deal propaganda (bearing in mind, depending on your viewpoint, that the second could coincide with one of the other two.
It's going to be 'pro no deal propaganda' - the government is not going to spook the people with the likely truth.
But the more they downplay the consequences, the greater the backlash if the risks aren’t spelled out.
Unlikely.
If the risks are overblown and it is a success then there will be no backlash.
If the risks are not and it is a disaster then no leaflet will prevent opprobrium.
That's good logic.
The only problem I see for a government wishing to downplay the consequences is the number of people who have seen the official reports and who will cry foul... ex-Ministers and senior civil servants spring to mind.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
You have to be over 78 yo and have re-located out of London for anyone Byronic met to have survived the Blitz.
The blitz did not just happen in London.
I was a baby but it was very real in our house every night
My apologies. I was under the impression the Blitz was a specific period during the Battle of Britain when Hitler turned to terror bombing London. I now realise I was wrong. You learn summat on PB every day. Nonetheless you need to 78 or older. Which is the age of my father, whose earliest memory is of walking up the hill to watch Liverpool burn. In the Liverpool Blitz I guess.
I am 75 and was a baby but my sister was 8.
Manchester and Liverpool were greatly damaged as they went for the docks
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I remember that Paul Merton gag about the V-bombs. As they were flying over, his gran said "the only one to worry about is the one with your name on it".
Which gave great comfort. Except to their neighbours, Mr and Mrs Doodlebug.....
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
That there's been a fall [at the referendum result]? This is not disputed. That there's been a fall now? Your data contradicts that, the spot now is not far off New Year and extremely close to 1/1/17 That the fall is dramatic? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, in fact its very minor compared to the 80s. That the fall matters? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that. That the fall is bad news? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
Ah well - apologies for ageing you a decade or so.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
Ah well - apologies for ageing you a decade or so.
Quick question. The only poll we have for B&R is 12 days, and Boris has been PM'd in the interim, with consequent bounce. Do the Tories have a chance for this? Genuine question.
It’s not impossible.
It’s a very hard seat to poll. It’s a hard seat even to deliver. Even in the rare cases where the homes are close together, the Welsh have laid them out randomly and numbered them eccentrically, just to keep the outlanders guessing. Or simply avoided giving their home a number and chosen a high scoring scrabble word instead.
I see you have had the same experience as me, right down to the holiday parks.
For political campaigning the whole place is a nightmare. Yesterday I was given a stack of leaflets to deliver along with a stack of addressed envelopes. The election software generates a map with a dot for each delivery point but, unlike in London where the road network appears on the map so that you can clearly see where each address is located, only the main roads appear on the Brecon ones and the tracks up which most properties are located aren’t shown at all.
So what I had was basically a big white space covered with dots. Hardly any of the addressed envelopes were numbered, so mostly a collection of random property names most of which were unpronounceable and many surprisingly similar to each other to a non-Welsh Speaker.
I am not usually a satnav navigator but thought it might be a good idea to try Google Maps to get me to each postcode. Unfortunately google maps positions the postcode flag in the geographic centre of each postcode, which often as not turned out to be a random field along a lane halfway up a big hill and nowhere near the actual voters’ homes.
The only way to try and deliver the area was to drive around aimlessly until I chanced upon a property, try and identify its name from the roadside (a considerable number of homes advertised neither number nor name), then search through a large bundle of randomly shuffled envelopes in the hope of finding a match. Which took ages. The better news is that I only got the route because all the actually deliverable rounds had already been done.
The only way to sensible deliver the outlying properties (and unfortunate this probably accounts for about a quarter of those in the constituency) is to pre-prepare routes and lists of delivery points in a sensible order well in advance. But of course delivering to these properties outside a by-election is way too labour-intensive to bother with.
Those voters living halfway up a hillside were clearly impressed when I hand delivered them a leaflet after fifteen minutes of driving along farm tracks to get to them. Whether all this effort was worthwhile remains to be seen.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
There'll be an element of that no doubt, and the fact of being out may well break some of the current resistors to Brexit even as others dream of a very quick rejoining. I'm hesistant to think it will be as large a reaction as you suggest, only for the reason that even if we regard such difficulties as exist as an existential, external threat to the tribe, a large portion simply will not be able to ignore that it is the people currently at the top of the tribe who got us here after 3 years of pissing about, even when they had the numbers to see it through.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
My apologies. I was under the impression the Blitz was a specific period during the Battle of Britain when Hitler turned to terror bombing London. I now realise I was wrong. You learn summat on PB every day. Nonetheless you need to 78 or older. Which is the age of my father, whose earliest memory is of walking up the hill to watch Liverpool burn. In the Liverpool Blitz I guess.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.
I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.
1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?
2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
An interesting anecdotal comment from someone I’ve never heard talk politics before. Hard working, family, lots of driving around for work - blue collar role living north of London
“I like Boris. He makes me laugh”
That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
I get that. But that is a double edged sword. TM elicited a fair bit of sympathy when it went tits up for her. Her qualities of detail, diligence and hard work were noted. She did her best, but it wasn't good enough. If the best you start with is makes you laugh, then that can easily turn to laughing at rather than with.
True. My point was simply that most people vote for very different reason than us. We may like to stir the entrails of polls and policies but most people don’t. Optimism is a powerful motivator.
My apologies. I was under the impression the Blitz was a specific period during the Battle of Britain when Hitler turned to terror bombing London. I now realise I was wrong. You learn summat on PB every day. Nonetheless you need to 78 or older. Which is the age of my father, whose earliest memory is of walking up the hill to watch Liverpool burn. In the Liverpool Blitz I guess.
p.s.The one consolation is that there is no better way to get to know an area than to go campaigning for an election there. I have a better feel for B&R than any random tourist who simply did the town centre and the obvious tourist sites. And there are some lucky people living there with the most staggeringly beautiful views from their home. I hope they appreciate them.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
Who is the aggressor? The evil EU or the liars who claimed project fear was an imaginary construct proposed by lèft-wing traitors?
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
Except they don't. They like the idea of it, they don't like actually doing it.
Comments
It would be a major blow for the LDs - even with remainer backup, not winning the seat. I still expect them to, but maybe the Tories won't be humiliated.
Of course if they win they'll definitely go for a GE. And if they lose they're majority is reduced once again to the point they probably need a GE.
It’s a very hard seat to poll. It’s a hard seat even to deliver. Even in the rare cases where the homes are close together, the Welsh have laid them out randomly and numbered them eccentrically, just to keep the outlanders guessing. Or simply avoided giving their home a number and chosen a high scoring scrabble word instead.
“I like Boris. He makes me laugh”
That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
And with MPs on holiday, Jeremy Corbyn cannot even use them at PMQs.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1156286899235016704
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1156287929783861249
As I have maintained for a few days the next six weeks are going to be all Boris, his ministers who are working, and their nearly daily summits
Polling through August and the trends, especially when so many are on holiday, will be very interesting
As for B & R I expect a Lib Dem gain but I would not put money on it
'I am speaking to you from the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street.
This morning the British Ambassador in Berlin handed the German Government a final note stating that unless we heard from them by 11 o'clock, that they were prepared at once to withdraw their backstop, a state of war would exist between us.
I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany.
You can imagine what a bitter blow it is to me that all my long struggle to win peace has failed. Yet I cannot believe that there is anything more or anything different that I could have done and that would have been more successful.
I found this most eloquent:
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1156147984788283392?s=21
If the best you start with is makes you laugh, then that can easily turn to laughing at rather than with.
The following is equally valid but doesn't carry the pejorative:
The pound sterling is now at its most competitive vs a basket of other currencies since Bloomberg began tracking it in 2004. More competitive than during financial crisis. More competitive than post referendum.
"I have nothing to offer you but Blood Sweat and Tears"
"Yay! Bring it ON!"
I think those who lived and served in WWII if reflected by someone I know well of that age group is complete bafflement on what we as a country will achieve through Brexit. Brexit is not going to solve any of the issues such as immigration and may well result in even greater agitation over the issue...
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1156305723254595584
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1156307276262707200
He is now in his mid-eighties.
He has no particular desire to relive the experience, nor the 15 years of rationing that followed.
Totally different constituency but everyone thought Oldham East and Saddleworth would be close till the votes started rolling in. We simply "don't know" here so 25-1 must be value.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
1780's French peasants; 1980's Soviet citizens; 1960's NI catholics... all examples of people not accepting communual suffering for ever.
Oh, and the NHS is not shit.
If the risks are overblown and it is a success then there will be no backlash.
If the risks are not and it is a disaster then no leaflet will prevent opprobrium.
She was actually trapped in an Anderson shelter after one bombing raid and had a lifelong problem with claustrophobia after that.
I was a baby but it was very real in our house every night
Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010, and the rates for the decade previously (see previous posts for sources).
1980-01-02: 2.2330
1990-01-02: 1.6145
2000-01-04: 1.6352
2010-01-04: 1.6121
2010-01-01: 1.6150
2011-01-01: 1.5610
2012-01-01: 1.5507
2013-01-01: 1.6245
2014-01-01: 1.6554
2015-01-01: 1.5571
2016-01-01: 1.4740
2017-01-01: 1.2300
2018-01-01: 1.3490
2019-01-01: 1.2733
4pm today: 1.2232
Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)
Approx 8:30pm BST: 1.2161 (spot)
Is that not convincing? Is it the graph thing?
If the Tories really thought that either this was close, or that Johnson was an asset, wouldn't they have done a big rally / walkabout etc. in Brecon?
Hardly a sign of confidence
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
Nonetheless you need to 78 or older. Which is the age of my father, whose earliest memory is of walking up the hill to watch Liverpool burn. In the Liverpool Blitz I guess.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
The only problem I see for a government wishing to downplay the consequences is the number of people who have seen the official reports and who will cry foul... ex-Ministers and senior civil servants spring to mind.
Manchester and Liverpool were greatly damaged as they went for the docks
Which gave great comfort. Except to their neighbours, Mr and Mrs Doodlebug.....
That there's been a fall [at the referendum result]? This is not disputed.
That there's been a fall now? Your data contradicts that, the spot now is not far off New Year and extremely close to 1/1/17
That the fall is dramatic? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, in fact its very minor compared to the 80s.
That the fall matters? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.
That the fall is bad news? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.
So what I had was basically a big white space covered with dots. Hardly any of the addressed envelopes were numbered, so mostly a collection of random property names most of which were unpronounceable and many surprisingly similar to each other to a non-Welsh Speaker.
I am not usually a satnav navigator but thought it might be a good idea to try Google Maps to get me to each postcode. Unfortunately google maps positions the postcode flag in the geographic centre of each postcode, which often as not turned out to be a random field along a lane halfway up a big hill and nowhere near the actual voters’ homes.
The only way to try and deliver the area was to drive around aimlessly until I chanced upon a property, try and identify its name from the roadside (a considerable number of homes advertised neither number nor name), then search through a large bundle of randomly shuffled envelopes in the hope of finding a match. Which took ages. The better news is that I only got the route because all the actually deliverable rounds had already been done.
The only way to sensible deliver the outlying properties (and unfortunate this probably accounts for about a quarter of those in the constituency) is to pre-prepare routes and lists of delivery points in a sensible order well in advance. But of course delivering to these properties outside a by-election is way too labour-intensive to bother with.
Those voters living halfway up a hillside were clearly impressed when I hand delivered them a leaflet after fifteen minutes of driving along farm tracks to get to them. Whether all this effort was worthwhile remains to be seen.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
For now I live in hope of an LD win and BXP ltd losing their deposit.
Night all!
PS Has Farage been campaigning at all in B&R?
I expect them though to pull back a decent amount of BP votes . Remainers though will be more enthusiastic to vote .
The seat isn’t strongly Leave , 52 to 48 .
And is more likely now to have edged into the Remain camp given overall UK polling.
http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/a3/
http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/