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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another Westminster by-election possibility opens up for the L

Ex-Tory, Heidi Allen campaigning for the LDs in Brecon and Radnorshire
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Until 1997 it was a Tory seat. In 2010 the Tories were second behind Nick Clegg.
Lib Dems should be 1/100 to win this!
With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.
And how the good voters of the constituency came to vote him in?
On present form the Conservative candidate will be some recent prison inmate who mugged an old disabled black pensioner whose husband is a war veteran struggling on a pittance having lost his home and job during the Windrush scandal.
And tbh, why should he not be allowed some time to get himself together? If he was physically ill, no-on would be saying he has to resign because of a democratic deficit for the electors.
Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.
It seems perfectly reasonable to me that if Jared needs a year off to get himself in order, he should be allowed it.
As the LibDem literature says, we should not be stigmatising those with mental health issues. We should be treating those who are physically ill and those with mental illnesses in an even-handed manner.
In 2015 students were queuing up to vote, many did not get in I believe.
Look North had many complaining.
To be fair the Lib Dems , deserved their defeat, after lying about tuition fees.
I agree he needs space and help. So he should resign immediately and get it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
You are treating the physically ill and the mentally ill in very different ways.
As the Lib Dems say, End Mental Health Injustice.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/mental-health-injustice
And did it justify electing a bloke like this to Parliament?
And how come the Labour Party put him up?
You'll have to scroll down on this link-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.
...Who am I kidding, I’m entirely sure. It is at least a useful corrective, now that PB LibDems are in the ascendant, to have your ceaseless stream of vituperation keeping our feet on the ground. 😁
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/jacob-rees-moog-there-will-not-be-a-mv4-20190329
And he's apologised to everybody since, yes?
Politics is strange though in that we can have an area of Sheffield decide that he was a better representative that Clegg was.
There's a degree to which parties get away with selecting dismal candidates. Fiona Onasanya, this chap, and a very long list of others over the years.
Labour (in this case) should be asked to pay the bill for the by-election.
We really shouldn't have MPs that are elected because of the party they represent but had they stood alone would have received zero votes.
Corbyn is an excellent example of the MPs we should have. He's a compete idiot, but he's made his case forcefully, and he's never relied on just the party label to get himself elected.
Perhaps they did, in which case they should be censured.
I do think that, as the LibDems have made a particular point of their campaign against Mental Health injustice, their treated of O'Mara is characteristically hypocritical.
If O'Mara was physically ill, no-one would be saying he must resign because of a democratic deficit.
The University seats have swung strongly to Labour over the last decades.
On topic - sort of - I was in Radnorshire today. If the corridor from Rhayader to Radnor is typical (which it isn't) and if posters equal support (which they don't) the LibDems are stuffed. They had three to Davies' 12 (one of which had been defaced).
I think too many people are making too many assumptions. I have consistently said the Tories have a chance, even though they should not. Certainly they are about 3-1 not 10-1. Conversely, the Liberal Democrats should really win easily but are clearly not exploiting their advantages. Picking a weak candidate who has run a poor campaign could prove very costly, and whatever idiot from the New Statesman believes they are 'almost certain' to win deserves the sack.
That said, if the Tories do win nobody should start talking about 'Boris bounces.' This is a seat that doesn't conform to mathematical models or to London twitterati views. There is every chance they will vote Tory out of sheer bloody-mindedness. I think a big chunk of the Plaid vote will abstain, but as many might go Blue to show two fingers to the leadership in Cardiff Bay.
Ultimately, this is a seat from which no conclusions can be drawn unless - and this is important - it is a very decisive win either way. If the gap is over 20 points, then we can start considering national factors. But I will be very, very surprised if it is.
Or in dinky little villages like Hathersage just outside the constituency.
This isn't about mental health. This is about him being a menace to women, and that is something that has been an ongoing saga.
It's also hard to escape the conclusion he's not resigning now because he wants another 2-3 months pay.
Edit - although Mrs B says it much more elegantly than I do.
The allied farming constituencies of Montgomeryshire and Dwyfor Meirionnydd I know well.
In general, posters in fields are fair representations of the support. Over the years, I have found that they normally understate the Tories slightly, & overstate the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.
So, I would take your poster statistics as indicative that this might be a good deal closer than punters think.
I would expect much of the Plaid vote not to bother, or to vote Tory. If you believe in Welsh independence, then you actually want Brexit to happen.
Funny, isn't it? Layla Moran slaps someone, and ends up in the cells.
The LibDems tell us that was a long time ago, when she was younger and less mature and we should cut her some slack.
Well, fine. But it doesn't seem as though the same rules apply to O' Mara.
Hence, this demographic will increase ! The Tories have called it right !
Bottom line is, we've all behaved like idiots at one time or another. Would you like everything you said when 19 and very drunk to be held against you now? But O'Mara seems to be incapable of learning from his mistakes, and indeed, keeps making worse ones.
(A similar comment could be made over the company Corbyn and Johnson keep.)
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1155192660409421825
Whereas both the middle class Victorian suburbs such as Nether Edge and the villages over the Derbyshire border look better than they did a generation ago.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mp-jared-omara-sexually-harassed-18785607
Which certainly fits with a long pattern of misogyny and sexual harassment that became a very major issue shortly after he became an MP.
People have a tendency to believe that things will continue much the same as they are. So, in the 1980s, it was almost inconceivable that the Conservatives would be largely unable to achieve a majority during the coming three decades. Anyone positing that prediction would have been ridiculed.
Nothing is forever.
He needs support.
If he feels he should resign for his mental health, then that is a decision he alone should make. If he feels he can continue with the right support, then he should be encouraged to continue. I see no difference between being physically ill and mentally ill in this regard.
I resent the hypocrisy of LibDems, mouthing platitudes about ending the inequality between mental and physical health, and then cackling about by-elections in Sheffield Hallam.
The End Mental Health Inequality program is a major LibDem policy platform. They made a huge fuss about it.
As usual, when the LibDems are given an opportunity to put their principles into action, they disappoint.
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)
This is a politics site - we talk about by-elections all the day and there have been plenty of occasions when, almost as soon as an MP has passed away, the speculation on the by-election begins. It's human nature and you'd better believe the LDs aren't unique in that.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Hertford North was added in April.
Baxtering the numbers leaves Con plus DUP plus TBP on 310 while Labour plus Greens plus Nationalists are on 295 leaving the ball very much in Jo Swinson's court with 37 MPs.
By contrast, O'Mara, quite separately from his homophobic past, which he may - hopefully has - turned his back on, continues to be a misogynist bully. I'm afraid even allowing for mental health issues what he has been doing doesn't on the evidence available seem excusable.
Not to mention widespread predictions of permanent Labour hegemony under Blair.
Conventional wisdom, especially over the medium to long term in politics is often utter baloney.
BTW Brentwood, Shenfield, Broxbourne and Hertford East were added in 2013
George Osborne.
On hearing of the election of Corbyn, he declared, 'This is proof God is a Consevative.'
+1 must be disappointing given the new leader publicity.