politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another Westminster by-election possibility opens up for the L

I expect an easy Lib Dem gain but is there any chance it could be a three-way marginal and the Tories can gain this?

Until 1997 it was a Tory seat. In 2010 the Tories were second behind Nick Clegg.

I hope the LDs come first. I mean in Brecon & R

I'd not put a lot of money on O'Mara seeing his supposed resignation through. He's claimed he'll resign after recess, but there's nothing to stop him doing so now. He simply needs to write to Sajid Javid applying to be Steward of Chiltern Hundreds. No need for Commons to be sitting. So I suspect it's a ruse to change bad headlines for him regarding abusive comments to staff and others, and he may not go ahead.

Peter_the_Punter said:

We must have some posters from the area. Can any of them tell me how Labour came to put up this O'Mara guy as a candidate?

And how the good voters of the constituency came to vote him in?

They were voting against Clegg.

JackW said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect an easy Lib Dem gain but is there any chance it could be a three-way marginal and the Tories can gain this?

Until 1997 it was a Tory seat. In 2010 the Tories were second behind Nick Clegg.

Zero chance.

On present form the Conservative candidate will be some recent prison inmate who mugged an old disabled black pensioner whose husband is a war veteran struggling on a pittance having lost his home and job during the Windrush scandal.

Yes, but how does he do on the No Deal purity test? That's all that really matters.

YBarddCwsc said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

I'd not put a lot of money on O'Mara seeing his supposed resignation through. He's claimed he'll resign after recess, but there's nothing to stop him doing so now. He simply needs to write to Sajid Javid applying to be Steward of Chiltern Hundreds. No need for Commons to be sitting. So I suspect it's a ruse to change bad headlines for him regarding abusive comments to staff and others, and he may not go ahead.

I suspect so to.

And tbh, why should he not be allowed some time to get himself together? If he was physically ill, no-on would be saying he has to resign because of a democratic deficit for the electors.

Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that if Jared needs a year off to get himself in order, he should be allowed it.

As the LibDem literature says, we should not be stigmatising those with mental health issues. We should be treating those who are physically ill and those with mental illnesses in an even-handed manner.

He can have as long as he likes. But why do you think it should be as an MP, on the public payroll, and with a record of vile abuse (albeit contributed to by his own psychological difficulties) towards staff and others.

I agree he needs space and help. So he should resign immediately and get it.

YBarddCwsc said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

I'd not put a lot of money on O'Mara seeing his supposed resignation through. He's claimed he'll resign after recess, but there's nothing to stop him doing so now. He simply needs to write to Sajid Javid applying to be Steward of Chiltern Hundreds. No need for Commons to be sitting. So I suspect it's a ruse to change bad headlines for him regarding abusive comments to staff and others, and he may not go ahead.

I suspect so to.

And tbh, why should he not be allowed some time to get himself together? If he was physically ill, no-on would be saying he has to resign because of a democratic deficit for the electors.

Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that if Jared needs a year off to get himself in order, he should be allowed it.

As the LibDem literature says, we should not be stigmatising those with mental health issues. We should be treating those who are physically ill and those with mental illnesses in an even-handed manner.

I’m not sure why you’re directing your bile at the Lib Dems, rather than at Labour, which was the party that refused him the support he needed (by his own account) but instead chucked him out.

...Who am I kidding, I’m entirely sure. It is at least a useful corrective, now that PB LibDems are in the ascendant, to have your ceaseless stream of vituperation keeping our feet on the ground. 😁

Peter_the_Punter said:

We must have some posters from the area. Can any of them tell me how Labour came to put up this O'Mara guy as a candidate?

And how the good voters of the constituency came to vote him in?

Labour were not expecting a general election and rushed the candidate selection process, I know one Labour staffer who in early May 2017 said to me it was more likely the Tories gained the seat than Labour.

I hope Mr O'Mara finds himself fit and well in the future.

Politics is strange though in that we can have an area of Sheffield decide that he was a better representative that Clegg was.

There's a degree to which parties get away with selecting dismal candidates. Fiona Onasanya, this chap, and a very long list of others over the years.

Labour (in this case) should be asked to pay the bill for the by-election.

We really shouldn't have MPs that are elected because of the party they represent but had they stood alone would have received zero votes.

Corbyn is an excellent example of the MPs we should have. He's a compete idiot, but he's made his case forcefully, and he's never relied on just the party label to get himself elected.

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

Still is, in my view. It would be a mistake to call this place middle class. It's a whole constituency like Radlett.

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

We must have some posters from the area. Can any of them tell me how Labour came to put up this O'Mara guy as a candidate?

And how the good voters of the constituency came to vote him in?

I understand that because of the timing of GE2017 there was no proper selection. I understand that there was a LAB party meeting which simply decided who should be the candidate in a range of seats in the region. The story is that that one person was able to get to the meeting & he made the selection

my understanding is that it was worse than that. Labour didn't have enough people already sorted to be candidates when the election was called, so didn't vet him properly either. They were desperately shoving people into seats right up until the last minute.

YBarddCwsc said:

Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.

Paul Flynn had been a devoted and assiduous servant of Newport West for 30 years before he fell ill. In fairness, that is a trait he shares with many older left-wing MPs. Nobody could accuse Corbyn or Skinner of not working damned hard for their constituencies. (Sadly several newer left wing MPs, e.g. Pidcock, do not share this sense of duty.) Jared O'Mara has had, by contrast, two years of taking the money, taking the piss and causing endless scandal.

On topic - sort of - I was in Radnorshire today. If the corridor from Rhayader to Radnor is typical (which it isn't) and if posters equal support (which they don't) the LibDems are stuffed. They had three to Davies' 12 (one of which had been defaced).

I think too many people are making too many assumptions. I have consistently said the Tories have a chance, even though they should not. Certainly they are about 3-1 not 10-1. Conversely, the Liberal Democrats should really win easily but are clearly not exploiting their advantages. Picking a weak candidate who has run a poor campaign could prove very costly, and whatever idiot from the New Statesman believes they are 'almost certain' to win deserves the sack.

That said, if the Tories do win nobody should start talking about 'Boris bounces.' This is a seat that doesn't conform to mathematical models or to London twitterati views. There is every chance they will vote Tory out of sheer bloody-mindedness. I think a big chunk of the Plaid vote will abstain, but as many might go Blue to show two fingers to the leadership in Cardiff Bay.

Ultimately, this is a seat from which no conclusions can be drawn unless - and this is important - it is a very decisive win either way. If the gap is over 20 points, then we can start considering national factors. But I will be very, very surprised if it is.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

We must have some posters from the area. Can any of them tell me how Labour came to put up this O'Mara guy as a candidate?

And how the good voters of the constituency came to vote him in?

Labour were not expecting a general election and rushed the candidate selection process, I know one Labour staffer who in early May 2017 said to me it was more likely the Tories gained the seat than Labour.

Thank TSE, but just exactly how long would you need in a room with this guy to figure he wasn't entirely suitable for public office?

YBarddCwsc said:

El_Capitano said:

I’m not sure why you’re directing your bile at the Lib Dems, rather than at Labour, which was the party that refused him the support he needed (by his own account) but instead chucked him out.

...Who am I kidding, I’m entirely sure. It is at least a useful corrective, now that PB LibDems are in the ascendant, to have your ceaseless stream of vituperation keeping our feet on the ground. 😁

I don't know whether or not the Labour Party behaved badly when he started to be an embarrassment.

Perhaps they did, in which case they should be censured.

I do think that, as the LibDems have made a particular point of their campaign against Mental Health injustice, their treated of O'Mara is characteristically hypocritical.

If O'Mara was physically ill, no-one would be saying he must resign because of a democratic deficit.

nobody's saying he should resign because he has mental problems. They are saying he should resign because of his behaviour towards all sorts of people, including his staff and constituents. He doesn't have - and doesn't ever seem to have had - a properly functioning constituency office or to have done the job of a constituency representative. And his behaviour towards women and LGBT is an utter disgrace. It didn't start recently.either. It goes back to well before he was an MP. Linky https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jared-o-mara-labour-mp-sexist-homophobic-comments-blog-guido-fawkes-politics-sexism-women-a8019246.html

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

Still is, in my view. It would be a mistake to call this place middle class. It's a whole constituency like Radlett.

If Hallam were Radlett I'm not too sure that Labour's Jewish difficulties would play too well !!

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

Lib-Dems Winning Here! And Here! And Here! And...

ExiledInScotland said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1155169089536610304?s=21

Stark_Dawning said:

ExiledInScotland said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.

I seem to remember, at the height of Thatcher, a theory that greater prosperity, home ownership and the de-population of industrial areas would mean permanent Conservative governments. They haven't won a majority that could last 5 years since.

YBarddCwsc said:

MrsB said:

YBarddCwsc said:

El_Capitano said:

I’m not sure why you’re directing your bile at the Lib Dems, rather than at Labour, which was the party that refused him the support he needed (by his own account) but instead chucked him out.

...Who am I kidding, I’m entirely sure. It is at least a useful corrective, now that PB LibDems are in the ascendant, to have your ceaseless stream of vituperation keeping our feet on the ground. 😁

I don't know whether or not the Labour Party behaved badly when he started to be an embarrassment.

Perhaps they did, in which case they should be censured.

I do think that, as the LibDems have made a particular point of their campaign against Mental Health injustice, their treated of O'Mara is characteristically hypocritical.

If O'Mara was physically ill, no-one would be saying he must resign because of a democratic deficit.

nobody's saying he should resign because he has mental problems. They are saying he should resign because of his behaviour towards all sorts of people, including his staff and constituents. He doesn't have - and doesn't ever seem to have had - a properly functioning constituency office or to have done the job of a constituency representative. And his behaviour towards women and LGBT is an utter disgrace. It didn't start recently.either. It goes back to well before he was an MP. Linky https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jared-o-mara-labour-mp-sexist-homophobic-comments-blog-guido-fawkes-politics-sexism-women-a8019246.html

I think the homophobic comments were made when he was younger.

Funny, isn't it? Layla Moran slaps someone, and ends up in the cells.

The LibDems tell us that was a long time ago, when she was younger and less mature and we should cut her some slack.

Well, fine. But it doesn't seem as though the same rules apply to O' Mara.

Has Layla Moran continued to beat up men since becoming an MP?

Bottom line is, we've all behaved like idiots at one time or another. Would you like everything you said when 19 and very drunk to be held against you now? But O'Mara seems to be incapable of learning from his mistakes, and indeed, keeps making worse ones.

(A similar comment could be made over the company Corbyn and Johnson keep.)

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

MrsB said:

YBarddCwsc said:

El_Capitano said:

I’m not sure why you’re directing your bile at the Lib Dems, rather than at Labour, which was the party that refused him the support he needed (by his own account) but instead chucked him out.

...Who am I kidding, I’m entirely sure. It is at least a useful corrective, now that PB LibDems are in the ascendant, to have your ceaseless stream of vituperation keeping our feet on the ground. 😁

I don't know whether or not the Labour Party behaved badly when he started to be an embarrassment.

Perhaps they did, in which case they should be censured.

I do think that, as the LibDems have made a particular point of their campaign against Mental Health injustice, their treated of O'Mara is characteristically hypocritical.

If O'Mara was physically ill, no-one would be saying he must resign because of a democratic deficit.

nobody's saying he should resign because he has mental problems. They are saying he should resign because of his behaviour towards all sorts of people, including his staff and constituents. He doesn't have - and doesn't ever seem to have had - a properly functioning constituency office or to have done the job of a constituency representative. And his behaviour towards women and LGBT is an utter disgrace. It didn't start recently.either. It goes back to well before he was an MP. Linky https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jared-o-mara-labour-mp-sexist-homophobic-comments-blog-guido-fawkes-politics-sexism-women-a8019246.html

I think the homophobic comments were made when he was younger.

Funny, isn't it? Layla Moran slaps someone, and ends up in the cells.

The LibDems tell us that was a long time ago, when she was younger and less mature and we should cut her some slack.

Well, fine. But it doesn't seem as though the same rules apply to O' Mara.

Has Layla Moran continued to beat up men since becoming an MP?

Bottom line is, we've all behaved like idiots at one time or another. Would you like everything you said when 19 and very drunk to be held against you now? But O'Mara seems to be incapable of learning from his mistakes, and indeed, keeps making worse ones.

(A similar comment could be made over the company Corbyn and Johnson keep.)

So O'Mara continues to make homophobic comments ? Evidence ?

dixiedean said:

Stark_Dawning said:

ExiledInScotland said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.

I seem to remember, at the height of Thatcher, a theory that greater prosperity, home ownership and the de-population of industrial areas would mean permanent Conservative governments. They haven't won a majority that could last 5 years since.

A similar thing was said about the abolition of capital controls - that capital flight at the possibility of a Labour government would scare enough voters into voting Tory to prevent it from happening.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

Still is, in my view. It would be a mistake to call this place middle class. It's a whole constituency like Radlett.

Throwing in a contrary view I'd say much of Hallam, like many post war suburban areas, looks to be in slow decline - Ecclesall and Crookes look especially drab although Dore is still very nice.

Whereas both the middle class Victorian suburbs such as Nether Edge and the villages over the Derbyshire border look better than they did a generation ago.

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

YBarddCwsc said:

O'Mara is suffering from mental health problems. I would expect his behaviour to be erratic and demanding.

He needs support.

If he feels he should resign for his mental health, then that is a decision he alone should make. If he feels he can continue with the right support, then he should be encouraged to continue. I see no difference between being physically ill and mentally ill in this regard.

I resent the hypocrisy of LibDems, mouthing platitudes about ending the inequality between mental and physical health, and then cackling about by-elections in Sheffield Hallam.

The End Mental Health Inequality program is a major LibDem policy platform. They made a huge fuss about it.

As usual, when the LibDems are given an opportunity to put their principles into action, they disappoint.

I wasn't aware I or anyone had "cackled" about a by-election in Hallam? I have a relative with mental health problems and I can only hope Jared O'Mara gets the help he needs and the privacy he deserves.

This is a politics site - we talk about by-elections all the day and there have been plenty of occasions when, almost as soon as an MP has passed away, the speculation on the by-election begins. It's human nature and you'd better believe the LDs aren't unique in that.

Stark_Dawning said:

ExiledInScotland said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.

Perhaps that explains the Cameron government's record of increasing student debt and falling home ownership - to make the country less prosperous.

The search is on for candidates who have never said anything embarrassing on social media ...

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1155196153874374656?s=20

What a yawn fest the Independent is

bigjohnowls said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

I fancy Corbyn to win an Autumn GE if thats the full extent if a Johnson bounce

Very good week in Westminster this morning discussing it all. Or rather whether there would indeed be an autumn GE.

ydoethur said:

surbiton19 said:

So O'Mara continues to make homophobic comments ? Evidence ?

I didn't say anything about his homophobic comments, although I appreciate the original thread did. I'm commenting on the way he's been treating his office staff:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mp-jared-omara-sexually-harassed-18785607

Which certainly fits with a long pattern of misogyny and sexual harassment that became a very major issue shortly after he became an MP.

You certainly said that Layla is OK since she did not beat up anyone afterwards. So, by the same logic, why is O'Mara's homophobic comments from his youth being repeated

The Opinium numbers have mixed messages. It looks as though there have been two moves - about a third of the TBP vote has gone back to the Conservatives while Labour has picked up from the Greens and the LDs are about the same.

Baxtering the numbers leaves Con plus DUP plus TBP on 310 while Labour plus Greens plus Nationalists are on 295 leaving the ball very much in Jo Swinson's court with 37 MPs.

another_richard said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

A reversion towards the May local elections result.

Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.

Baxtering, small drop for both Labour and Con. BXP = 0. LD gains about 25 coming from Tories and Labour.

another_richard said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

A reversion towards the May local elections result.

Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.

Quite a decent initial Boris bounce. Especially coming from Opinium which had the Tories behind previously and still 15% more BREX to squeeze.

The last time the Tories led with Opinium was back in March.

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Stark_Dawning said:

ExiledInScotland said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R

With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.

First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.

Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.

I thought rich people voted tory???

Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.

This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.

This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.

I seem to remember, at the height of Thatcher, a theory that greater prosperity, home ownership and the de-population of industrial areas would mean permanent Conservative governments. They haven't won a majority that could last 5 years since.

A similar thing was said about the abolition of capital controls - that capital flight at the possibility of a Labour government would scare enough voters into voting Tory to prevent it from happening.

And, indeed, that the plan for an introduction of a minimum wage was the final nail in the coffin of any hopes of a Labour government ever again. Fear of the inevitable wage/price spiral and ballooning unemployment would drive a terrified nation into permanent Conservatism.
Not to mention widespread predictions of permanent Labour hegemony under Blair.
Conventional wisdom, especially over the medium to long term in politics is often utter baloney.

another_richard said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

A reversion towards the May local elections result.

Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.

Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.

Re failings of MPs, I'm not convinced that The LDs were open and honest about Charles Kennedy's attachment to drink.

another_richard said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)

A reversion towards the May local elections result.

Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.

Yes. That is the pattern we have been seeing since the March 29 deadline was missed. The Tory share cratered then. Labour following a month later. That poll does not look like a Swinson tide sweeping the nation, unlike here on PB.
+1 must be disappointing given the new leader publicity.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1155204338719121409