politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. So Boris Johnson is PM. What
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That might even be true for old definitions of sexual relations as acts that can lead to babies, but in any case, it surely doomed Clinton's chances of becoming prime minister. The other interesting thing to remember is that the impeachment of Clinton started out looking at financial corruption but when no evidence was found, those dastardly Republicans switched to investigating his cigars.Philip_Thompson said:
21 years ago:Sunil_Prasannan said:
15 years ago:Philip_Thompson said:
Better.rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson, who is Prime Minister, was previously fired from a job for lying.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris Johnson worked for The Times when he was PM?rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
Better?
Everyone has a past. Big difference between past mistakes [in this case wasn't it nearly 3 decades ago?] and malfeasance in office.
"I have not had an affair with Petronella. It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."
- Boris, 2004.
"I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky."
- POTUS, 1998
It is worrying that hyper-partisanship like that has started to creep into our politics.0 -
Cyclefree said:Beibheirli_C said:
Of course, those women have pre-selected themselves. If they loathed Boris they would not be there to throw their knickers granny-pants at him.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Oi!! Granny pants are very useful things. We cannot have everything going south when we garden.
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I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
I might have gotten confused in all the euphoria, but wasn't Boris elected on a mandate of negotiating his own withdrawal agreement? If so, why are Baker and co. telling him that anything other than No Deal would be betrayal? Were they not paying attention?0
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Recessions come and go, what causes them varies but the economic cycle of boom and bust is a fact of life. Which is why Keynesian spending theories that have been around for well over half a century by the time of the financial crisis is that you borrow in the bad times, save in the good times.DecrepitJohnL said:
The global financial crisis was not Labour's mess and the answer to your question is through economic growth, which is the natural state of the economy, rather than flatlining the recovery inherited from Labour.Philip_Thompson said:Because Labour's profligate spending meant tough choices were necessary.
In 2010 for every £4 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
Now for every £34 of spending, £1 was borrowed.
How do you suppose we as a nation could have fixed Labour's mess without some cuts from 2010?
Leaving that to one side, it is idle to pretend you could cut tens of thousands of boats, tommies and coppers without reducing our capacity to protect Rolex-wearers and oil tankers. Of course, crime adds to GDP so there is that!
However Gordon Brown's hubris and arrogance led him to proclaim he and "ended boom and bust" before presiding over the biggest post-war bust of them all.
What made our financial situation so dreadful is not the fact the crisis happened, but Brown's decisions leading up to the crisis, including spending over half a decade in the run up to the crisis maxing out our deficit consistently at well over 2% of GDP. Despite inheriting and previously having a pretty balanced budget.
The previous recession the Tories faced at the end of the 80s/early 90s had been entered with the UK running a small surplus. That allowed the government to have Keynesian spending increases during the downturn without blowing the budget. By maxing out the Treasuries Credit Card during the good times, we were bankrupted essentially when the crisis hit. That is 100% Brown's fault.
Had he not hubristically thought he had eliminated boom and bust, had he saved for a rainy day and the next bust after over a decade and a half without one, we would have coped fine. It is entirely and solely his fault.2 -
Greening is, Grieve isn't.PeterMannion said:
I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
PS if "economic growth" is the solution @DecrepitJohnL why did Brown not have a balanced budget in any of the years prior to the recession while we were growing?
The fact is he consistently overspent for years and then when the recession hit that blew the finances apart.0 -
Given the 2019 LDs are simply the "bollocks to Brexit" party, Grieve is.Pulpstar said:
Greening is, Grieve isn't.PeterMannion said:
I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
Well ... yes! I doubt he would ever pass the interview, but if I had inherited him he would be gone at the first opportunity.Cyclefree said:
You’re far too soft. I’d never have hired him. He’d make a good subject for one of my investigations.Beibheirli_C said:
Define "Older" ...AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Being on the wrong side of 50
my detailed assessment is that I believe he lacks a spine (reportedly run away from too many awkward situations), his pronouncements on race and colour convince me that he is anything but tolerant and if he has a plan we are yet to hear it rather than the vague objectives that he blusters about.
Executive summary: I cannot think of a role he is fit for, but PM is not it. If he worked me I would fire him.
I look at his cabinet and the list of non-entities he is packing it with - Raab, Leadsome, Patel, etc and the only upside I can see is pure entertainment along the lines of the Keystone Cops.0 -
Agree. I think the Boris effect could cause quite a transfer from Brexit Party to Con and together they were more than LD in recent poll there. To maintain the momentum the LDs need to win this and ideally convincinglyHarris_Tweed said:
The Brecon and Radnor parliamentary one next week will be interesting. I had it nailed-on as LD.. but if a Boris Bounce lets the (convicted) Tory hold on, that will be somewhat narrative-altering.kjh said:
I'm not sure anyone is extrapolating are they (other than in fun)? We all know about the LDs in by elections. But really what do you expect them to do when these results come in? Stuff is happening nationally with all the parties. The LDs were dead and buried and now they are revived. Whether it leads to anything is another matter. You are being a sourpuss if you can't let them have some joy with it.justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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Lol! Ah, the famous Glasgow Kiss. Round my way it was the Hackney Handshake. Equally welcoming, of course.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Shame. I was looking forward to them receiving a traditional warm Glaswegian welcome.Scott_P said:0 -
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Perhaps they are half-wits. It would explain a lot....Stark_Dawning said:I might have gotten confused in all the euphoria, but wasn't Boris elected on a mandate of negotiating his own withdrawal agreement? If so, why are Baker and co. telling him that anything other than No Deal would be betrayal? Were they not paying attention?
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"Disbanded" = the constituent parts are broken up into individual bits. The people still exist but the team does not. I realise the EU is held in some disdain, but even you must concede that he EU does not disintegrate its personnel when their services are no longer required.Philip_Thompson said:
People keep saying this "EU team is disbanded" stuff but actually Barnier is still there and he said even yesterday that he remains available for talks with the UK through the summer.Beibheirli_C said:
I wonder who he thinks Boris is going to negotiate with? AIUI, the EU Team is disbanded. Gone. Exit stage left pursued by a Johnsonrottenborough said:
Hot air.Harris_Tweed said:I know it's bad, but every time I see this pic I'm getting the Looney Toons theme sequence in my head. I reassure myself it *is* only the background (as per https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91gOCgWhHJL._SX300_.jpg)
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1154672704789909505?s=20
If the talks hit a breakthrough, whether it be with Barnier or Varadkar, it won't take long to fill the formalities to get an amendment made. Though it does look like the EU may decide to see what the next General Election brings instead.
As for your remark about "it won't take long": you are right, it won't. But it won't take zero time either, as everybody has to agree. And I need to point out that we have only 98 days left.
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Brown did not overspend; Brown was the last Chancellor to run a surplus; a balanced budget is not necessarily a good thing anyway.Philip_Thompson said:PS if "economic growth" is the solution @DecrepitJohnL why did Brown not have a balanced budget in any of the years prior to the recession while we were growing?
The fact is he consistently overspent for years and then when the recession hit that blew the finances apart.
But deficit hawks should look away now if Boris actually means any of the spending commitments he has given, even without the effects of a possible crash-out Brexit.0 -
One carrier. Not a pair. There will only ever be enough people and aircraft to generate a single air wing for carrier strike. The PoW is going to "focus" on rotary wing ops to replace Ocean (the Fireplace Salesman sold it to Brazil when nobody was looking) and will be the world's most expensive LHD.OblitusSumMe said:
At least in the 1930s we had begun to rearm, while we've continued to cut and pour immense resources into a pair of aircraft carriers that will be sod all use in a conflict with Russia.0 -
maybe the eu will have to blink on brexit, given the economic outlook:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/0 -
No one said the Conservatives have been friends at a government level of HMF. But it is just as with the NHS and Labour - Lab could close every hospital and outsource primary care to Goldman Sachs and they would still be seen as defenders of the NHS. Cons likewise with defence.anothernick said:
Indeed. The army is now almost 1/3 smaller than it was in 2010.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, my point is that it has been Conservative governments that cut the armed forces and the police. This is counterintuitive because the Tories are generally held to be strong on defence and law & order. The cuts later came home to roost.TOPPING said:
Your point is that by cutting policemen it is all of a sudden the victims' fault that they are mugged/shot/burgled. And by cutting the Royal Navy, it was Thatcher's fault that Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.DecrepitJohnL said:Theresa May axing 20,000 coppers ... (soon to be replaced by Boris if we can find enough new lockers).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kit-malthouse-says-plan-to-hire-police-is-at-risk-from-lack-of-lockers-6dsnplnjn
1) Mrs Thatcher cut the navy.
2) Argentina (as had been predicted and as the government had been warned) invaded.
3) War.
4) Mrs Thatcher made yet more cuts to the navy so the armada could not be re-assembled.
5) John Nott walked out when challenged on this by Robin Day.
For all your sophistry, you do not seem to be challenging the facts of the cuts. It is Conservative governments that have decimated the armed forces. Putin would vote Tory.
That would be quite funny if it wasn't so worrying.0 -
It is nice to know that somebody IRL is taking heed.glw said:
Not being snarky but people have been saying that on HERE for days now. So what's the significance of someone on Twitter saying what's been said here repeatedly?rottenborough said:0 -
What nonsense. It just happens to be the most important issue currently (and sadly for the last few years).Philip_Thompson said:
Given the 2019 LDs are simply the "bollocks to Brexit" party, Grieve is.Pulpstar said:
Greening is, Grieve isn't.PeterMannion said:
I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit
You might as well say the Conservative party is the 'Bollocks to Remain' party.
Oh I see your point!0 -
New thread0
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He is showbiz. What can I say?AlastairMeeks said:
I obviously move in more decorous circles. His arrival has been noted on my facebook feed (which is studiously unpolitical most of the time). Almost all the comment has come from older women. None of it has been complimentary.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Sample:
"Oh God BORIS,! It's true what they say then, America sneezes and we get flu. Or the fool in this case, who'd vote for a man that can't find himself a decent barber. Oh that's right the USA."
This from a woman who has used the phrase "suck it up buttercup" about the referendum result.0 -
Of course but we were discussing why she is in, not why she should be out.rcs1000 said:
I'm staggered she was welcomed back to Cabinet, let alone given one of the Offices of State. Forget the death penalty appearance on Question Time, as embarassing as it was, and remember why she was fired.TOPPING said:
And is also a bonkers Brexiter which I believe was perhaps the more pertinent aspect to her CV.rkrkrk said:
Javid is a former high flying banker who has previously held a great office of state.TOPPING said:
So some appointments of Conservative BAME MPs to high office are tokenism and others aren't. Thank goodness you are able so acutely to distinguish which is which.
Patel is a former tobacco/alcohol lobbyist who recently was fired/resigned from cabinet in disgrace for conducting her own foreign policy and lying to the PM.
No, not for running a parallel foreign policy. (For that, she merely got ticked off.)
She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?0 -
Polling subsamples suggest the Tories already had a female deficit under MaySunil_Prasannan said:
I think my mum would agree with that, judging from her recent commentsanothernick said:
My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was making the best of a bad situation, commented on our family whatsapp group that Boris was completely unsuitable as PM, not because of his political record but because of his attitude to women.AlastairMeeks said:
I obviously move in more decorous circles. His arrival has been noted on my facebook feed (which is studiously unpolitical most of the time). Almost all the comment has come from older women. None of it has been complimentary.TOPPING said:
Depends. You haven't been waiting in a hall or dinner at which there are plenty of older women, just before Boris was due to walk in. They just about restrained themselves from whipping off their undergarments.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to see some detailed polling about how Boris Johnson is regarded by older women. My anecdotal experience is that even fervent Leavers in that group are not impressed.
Sample:
"Oh God BORIS,! It's true what they say then, America sneezes and we get flu. Or the fool in this case, who'd vote for a man that can't find himself a decent barber. Oh that's right the USA."
This from a woman who has used the phrase "suck it up buttercup" about the referendum result.
I am sure she is not alone in taking that view.
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That rather confirms my view that the results owed a very great deal to 'pavement politics' - and very little to Brexit!Mysticrose said:0 -
Did you ever see that episode of "The West Wing" where Donna says something and Josh screams "YA THINK???!!!".rcs1000 said:
That's a fair point.Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
We have at least two members of the four great offices of state who have been fired for lying. The President of the United States wouldn't know what truth was if it hit him with a stick.
We're fucked, aren't we?0 -
And also from the shadow cabinet for lying to Howard over cheating on his then wife. So at least he's consistent in his utter dishonesty.rcs1000 said:
Boris Johnson was fired from The Times for lying, wasn't he?eek said:
What lie did the PM tell...Scott_P said:
Not if the PM was also fired for telling lies...rcs1000 said:She was fired for lying to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister asked her a direct question. Mrs Patel looked into her heart, and decided it would be easier to lie.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but shouldn't that disqualify you from any ministerial post?
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Oh for god's sake, another new f*****g thread. Aaargh!0
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Actually it does nowPeterMannion said:
I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
Just keep sending them over....HYUFD said:
Actually it does nowPeterMannion said:
I agree about SB and MF being BXP, but JG and DG being remainers doesn't make them 'basically Lib Dems'HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
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But they failed to win Cambridge!rcs1000 said:
They increased their number of seats by 50%. What was the percentage increase for Labour?justin124 said:The attempts to extrapolate Parliamentary election outcomes from local election by elections is frankly daft and naive.We saw big LibDem successes at these 'pavement poltics' by elections for several months prior to the 2017 election - plus their win at the Richmond by election courtesy of Zac Goldsmith. How well did that work out for them?
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It may well do, but on the other hand people now realise what Brexit really means. This is why they are now coming over massively to the Lib Dems. They have had quite enough of the mendacity and deceitfulness of the Conservative leadership, and quite enough of the cowardness of the Labour leadership.justin124 said:
That rather confirms my view that the results owed a very great deal to 'pavement politics' - and very little to Brexit!Mysticrose said:0
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